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April & May - Volume 15 No 170
Summary
Equity Markets
The TEDPIX index increased by 2% and the junior Farabourse
market (IFB) by 4% in IRR terms over the past two months
(ending April 2021). Based on the unofficial exchange rate, the
month-on-month gain in dollar terms was 1% on the TSE and
6% on the IFB market. This was partly due to a 8% appreciation
of the IRR against the USD over the month.
Debt Markets
From the start of the Iranian calendar year 1400 (March 2021)
to the end of April, the total issuance on the fixed income mar-
ket reached US$ 0.4 billion based on the unofficial exchange
rate. Yield to maturity (YTM) remained stable at 22% at the
end of April.
Economic Review
This issue reviews the latest oil export statistics and trade balance
data. In addition, we have included a separate report covering the
latest macroeconomic data published by relevant organizations
and senior macroeconomic strategists in a fact-sheet summary, as
well as an economic calendar released by local and international
statistics centres.
Kordestan, Iran
Photo by: Ali Darvishsefat
1 Iran Investment Monthly
Table of Contents 3 Market Overview
5 Performance & Updates
7 Historic Trends & Sector Insight
8 Industry at a Glance
9 Market Snapshot
11 TSE & Junior Market Performance
13 Top Ranked Companies
15 Iran’s Fixed Income Market
18 Economic Review
18 Latest Updates
20 Macroeconomic Data
21 News & Views
21 Recent Brokerage Reports
21 Turquoise News
22 Turquoise Group
2 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Market Review
For 3 months out of 4 in the current year, the market has fallen. This has pushed
back the year-to-date performance of the TSE to minus 6.4% in USD terms. The
ongoing political negotiations between Iran and global powers, which are widely
viewed as being vital in providing possible economic relief from sanctions, has not
thus far generate significant optimism either. This is because there have not been
signs of an immediate breakthrough regarding the nuclear dispute as of yet.
In other developments, investors are waiting for the earnings season to kick off
in the second half of May. Earnings reports can provide the market with new
information although any surprises are expected to be limited; this is because
economic variables (such as the exchange rate, inflation, interest rates etc.) have
remained pretty stable over the winter. Therefore, the continuation of the current
sentiment in the stock market is likely in the short term unless there is some good
news on the political side following the nuclear negotiations.
Shervin Shahriari
Valuations have also moved lower in the stock market as the average trailing P/E Chief Investment Officer
ratio fell from its peak of 42x in July 2020 to 13x by the end of April 2021.
P/E
Source: TSE
More than half the weight of the Iranian market cap belongs to listed companies
which produce global commodities that are either exported or sold on the free
market domestically. Thus, fluctuations in global prices of commodities and the
Iranian exchange rate have a big impact on the profitability of these companies.
3 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
In line with the oil price appreciation in April, the prices of most commodities
continued to appreciate. This included basic metals, mining and petrochemical
products. The industrial metals sector rose by 3% in USD terms while the mining
and petrochemical sector slipped by 1%, both outperforming the main index. A 3%
appreciation of the Rial, however, worked against the positive impact of rising global
commodity prices as it reduced the value of exported goods in local currency terms.
Given the magnitude of the rise in global commodity prices, we think that listed
commodity producers have potential for growth, despite expectations for Rial
stability in the short term. This is the reason for the current 60% weighting of
commodity-related companies in the equity portion of our current portfolio.
4 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Performance & Updates
11 - Year Average (2008-2021)1
Market Capitalization (billion US$) 121 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market
P/E 7.8 x TSE
Dividend Yield (%) 3
10% TSE
Market Cap / GDP 54% TSE & Farabourse
Total Turnover (billion US$),Average Annual 31 TSE
TSE Overall Index Average Annual Growth (US$) 27% TSE
1
Annual data from 2008 to Mar 2021
2
Calculated based on unofficial IRR per US$ exchange rates.
Summary - Mar 2021
Market Capitalization (billion US$) 283 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market
Free Float 22% TSE & Farabourse Junior Market
Number of Listed Companies1 684 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market
TSE Index Performance (US$) 2,4
7.2% (MTD) -7.6% (YTD) TSE
Total Turnover (million US$) 2
5,143 m$ TSE & Farabourse Junior Market
Dividend Yield (%) 3
4.7% TSE
P/E 17.0
1
174 companies are listed in Over-The-Counter (OTC) or off-exchange market named as “Base Market” in Farabourse junior market which trading of these companies are done directly between two parties. 2 Calculated
based on unofficial IRR per US$ exchange rates. 3 Calculated based on the latest market data 4 TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index)
Tehran Stock Exchange & Junior Market Trade by Value1 -Mar 2021
Iran Farabourse (Junior Market) Trade Volume (million US$)
Tehran Stock Exchange (Main Market)Trade Volume (million US$)
Since the beginning of 2021, the market pushed back the YTD performance
of the TSE and IFB to -8% and -9% respectively in IRR terms. The loss
in hard currency terms was also 8% on the TSE and 9% on the IFB on a
year to date basis. In March 2021, the TSE equity trade volumes declined
to US$4,553 million US$ from the US$9,290 average over the last twelve
months. The total number of shares traded on the TSE decreased by 12%
compared to a monthly average over the past year of 193 billion shares.
Million US$
Source: Tehran Stock Exchange
Iran Farabourse Company
All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate
1
Trading volume month on month in US$ term - TSE includes mainly equity while Farabourse has more fixed income instruments and smaller equities.
5 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Performance & Updates
11 - Year Average (2008-2021)1
Market Capitalization (billion US$) 133 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market
P/E 8.3 x TSE
Dividend Yield (%) 3
10% TSE
Market Cap / GDP 65% TSE & Farabourse
Total Turnover (billion US$),Average Annual 31 TSE
TSE Overall Index Average Annual Growth (US$) 28% TSE
1
Annual data from 2008 to Apr 2021
2
Calculated based on unofficial IRR per US$ exchange rates.
Summary - Apr 2021
Market Capitalization (billion US$) 266 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market
Free Float 22% TSE & Farabourse Junior Market
Number of Listed Companies1 683 TSE & Farabourse Junior Market
TSE Index Performance (US$) 2,4
1.2% (MTD) -6.5% (YTD) TSE
Total Turnover (million US$) 2
1,874 m$ TSE & Farabourse Junior Market
Dividend Yield (%) 3
6.0% TSE
P/E 13.3
1
174 companies are listed in Over-The-Counter (OTC) or off-exchange market named as “Base Market” in Farabourse junior market which trading of these companies are done directly between two parties. 2 Calculated
based on unofficial IRR per US$ exchange rates. 3 Calculated based on the latest market data 4 TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index)
Tehran Stock Exchange & Junior Market Trade by Value1 - Apr 2021
Iran Farabourse (Junior Market) Trade Volume (million US$)
Tehran Stock Exchange (Main Market)Trade Volume (million US$)
Since the beginning of 2021, the YTD performance of the TSE and IFB has
been -14% and -10% in IRR terms respectively. The loss in hard currency
terms was 7% on the TSE and 3% on the IFB on a year-to-date basis. In
April 2021, the TSE equity trade volumes declined to US$1,662 million from
the US$8,987 million monthly average over the past year. The total number
of shares traded on the TSE decreased by 69% compared to a monthly
average over the past twelve months of 188 billion shares.
Million US$
Source: Tehran Stock Exchange
Iran Farabourse Company
All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate
1
Trading volume month on month in US$ term - TSE includes mainly equity while Farabourse has more fixed income instruments and smaller equities.
6 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Historic Trends & Sector Insight
Long-Term Overall Index (Normalized in USD) Long-Term Iranian Market Cap ( Normalized in USD)
Historic Average: 200 Historic Average: 185
Apr 2021 : 425
Apr 2021 :436
TSE Best Performing Sectors & Overall Index (Normalized in USD)
115
106
108
96
Monetary Intermediation - Banks
Computer & related activities
Post & Telecommunication
Overall USD
TSE Large Sectors (% Market Capitalization)
22% 14% 9% 8% 7% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 28%
Metal Ores Mining
Diversified
Related Activities
Telecommunications
Monetary
Chemicals
Metals*
And Auto Parts
Pharmaceuticals
Petroleum
Motor Vehicles
Other
Refined
Computer &
Source: TSE, Bonbast, as of Apr 2021
*Metals sector includes steel, copper and aluminum
7 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Industry at a Glance - Apr 2021
YTD 1-Year Return 5-Year Return
Top Performing Companies Market Cap
Sector Trailing (%) Trailing (%) Trailing (%)
in April 2021 (MOM %) (Million USD)
in USD in USD in USD
Iranian Aluminium Company 730 -22% -27% -
Metals*
Khouzestan steel company 3,031 10% -49% -20%
Iran Alloy Steel Co 804 -3% -25% 74%
Opal Kani Pars 1,459 - - 0%
Mining Chadormalu Mining and Industrial Company 4,719 7% 8% -28%
Sabanour Mining and Industrial Development Company 590 11% 40% -60%
Lavan Oil Refinery Company 393 -9% -22% 3%
Petroleum Iranol Company 318 21% 10% -34%
Shiraz Oil Refining Company 460 4% -2% 135%
Arak Petrochemical Corporation 849 20% -22% -1%
Chemical Jam Polypropylene Company 725 3% -16% -
AryaSasol Polymer Company 3,365 -47% - -
Post Bank of Iran 275 28% 28% 38%
Banks Bank Mellat 4,215 1% -79% -72%
Karafarin Bank 478 7% -77% -84%
TSE Large Sectors 5 -Year Performance (Normalized in USD)
Metals
Mining
Petroleum
Chemical
Banks
335,
Apr 2021
262,
Apr 2021
188,
Apr 2021
151,
Apr 2021
138,
Apr 2021
Source: TSE, Bonbast, as of ending Apr 2021
*Metals sector includes steel, copper and aluminum
8 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Market Snapshot -Mar 2021 Iran & Regional Markets
Iran: A 26-Year Snapshot, Asset Class Annualized Return in US$ (%) P/E Multiple Comparison
MSCI Morocco 25.3
Kuwait 45.7
Qatar 19.4
12% MSCI Arabian Markets 23.1
MSCI GCC Countries 23.7
MSCI Egypt 7.8
6% Saudi Arabia 37.6
5%
UAE 21.9
Iran 17.0
%
Turquoise Iran Fund 11.7
Sub Fund B/C, as of ending Mar 2021
Note: Annual data from 1995 to Mar 2021 Source: CBI, TSE, IFB
All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate
Iran & International Markets
3 4
Tehran Stock Exchange MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI Frontier Markets
Average P/E Average P/E Average P/E
17.0 21.5 15.1
1
1-Year Performance in $ 1-Year Performance in $ 1-Year Performance in $
57.0% 58.9% 39.6%
Annualized 10 Year in $ 2
Annualized 10 Year in $ Annualized 10 Year in $
8.6% 4.0% 4.2%
22.4 Chemicals 20.9 Information Technology 35.8 Financials
13.7 Basic Metals 18.2 Financials 14.5 Communication Services
Sector Breakdown (%)
Sector Breakdown (%)
Sector Breakdown (%)
8.9 Refined Petroleum Products 17.7 Consumer Discretionary 13.6 Real Estate
7.6 Metal Ores Mining 11.7 Communication Services 11.1 Consumer Staples
7.3 Monetary intermediation 8.1 Materials 8.8 Materials
40.1 Others 23.4 Others 16.3 Others
1.TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index) performance calculated in US$ for the Period of Mar 2020 to Mar 2021
2.Overall Tehran Stock Exchange Index 10 year annualized performance calculated in US$
3.MSCI Emerging Markets Index (US$) - Mar 2021
4.MSCI Frontier Markets Index (US$) - Mar 2021
Source: Tehran Stock Exchange - Central Bank of Iran - MSCI Inc., Kamcoonline.
All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate, unless otherwise indicated.
9 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Market Snapshot -Apr 2021 Iran & Regional Markets
Iran: A 26-Year Snapshot, Asset Class Annualized Return in US$ (%) P/E Multiple Comparison
MSCI Morocco 28.1
Kuwait 47.4
Qatar 18.5
12% MSCI Arabian Markets 24.0
MSCI GCC Countries 24.7
MSCI Egypt 7.9
6% Saudi Arabia 31.4
5%
UAE 21.7
Iran 13.3
%
Turquoise Iran Fund 7.8
Sub Fund B/C, as of ending Apr 2021
Note: Annual data from 1995 to Apr 2021 Source: CBI, TSE, IFB
All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate
Iran & International Markets
3 4
Tehran Stock Exchange MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI Frontier Markets
Average P/E Average P/E Average P/E
13.3 21.5 17.5
1
1-Year Performance in $ 1-Year Performance in $ 1-Year Performance in $
-6.5% 49.2% 39.8%
Annualized 10 Year in $ 2
Annualized 10 Year in $ Annualized 10 Year in $
14.1% 4.0% 4.5%
20.0 Chemicals 21.2 Information Technology 35.0 Financials
13.7 Basic Metals 17.9 Financials 14.5 Communication Services
Sector Breakdown (%)
Sector Breakdown (%)
Sector Breakdown (%)
9.2 Investment Companies 17.4 Consumer Discretionary 14.2 Real Estate
7.6 Diversified Industrials 11.7 Communication Services 10.5 Consumer Staples
7.3 Metal Ores Mining 8.5 Materials 9.5 Materials
42.2 Others 23.3 Others 16.3 Others
1.TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index) performance calculated in US$ for the Period of Apr 2020 to Apr 2021
2.Overall Tehran Stock Exchange Index 10 year annualized performance calculated in US$
3.MSCI Emerging Markets Index (US$) - Apr 2021
4.MSCI Frontier Markets Index (US$) - Apr 2021
Source: Tehran Stock Exchange - Central Bank of Iran - MSCI Inc., Kamcoonline.
All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate, unless otherwise indicated.
10 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
TSE & Junior Market Performance
Tehran Stock Exchange: TEDPIX*, Mar 2021
Normalised in US$
Normalised in US$
Volume million shares
Million Shares
Source: Tehran Stock Exchange
*TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index)
All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate, unless otherwise indicated.
Iran Farabourse (Junior Market): IFX*, Mar 2021
Normalised in US$
Normalised in US$
Volume million shares
Million Shares
Source: Iran Farabourse Company
*Iran Farabourse (Junior Market) Overall Index (Total Return)
All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate, unless otherwise indicated.
11 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
TSE & Junior Market Performance
Tehran Stock Exchange: TEDPIX*,Apr 2021
Normalised in US$
Normalised in US$
Volume million shares
Million Shares
Source: Tehran Stock Exchange
*TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index)
All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate, unless otherwise indicated.
Iran Farabourse (Junior Market): IFX*, Apr 2021
Normalised in US$
Normalised in US$
Volume million shares
Million Shares
Source: Iran Farabourse Company
*Iran Farabourse (Junior Market) Overall Index (Total Return)
All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate, unless otherwise indicated.
12 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Top Ranked Companies - Mar 2021 Turnover Value % Total Turnover
(million US$)
National Investment Company of Iran was founded in 1975 as the
National
Investment 46.7 1.0%
investment arm of Tejarat Bank and Pension Fund. The company is Company of Iran
active in investment in various sectors across listed equities.
Is one of the largest pharmaceuticals holding Companies with
more than 20 subsidiaries. Company has acquired 14 percent of
Barkat Pharmaceutical
Group
21.3 0.5%
the country total pharmaceutical market and could produce more
than 420 different products through its subsidiaries.
Top 5 Traded by Value
Founded in 1962, Iran Khodro Industrial Group (also
known as IKCO) is the leading Iranian vehicle
Iran Khodro
9.5 0.2
manufacturer. IKCO produces c.65% of all domestic
vehicles, and is the largest automotive manufacturer
in the Middle East.
Iran Industrial Group was founded in 1964
under the name of General Tire and Rubber of
Iran in the country. It supplies major Iranian
Iran Tire Co.
5.3 0.1%
manufacturers, including major automakers
such as van, cargo, bus, farm and road
construction tires
Tehran Oil Refining
Tehran Oil Refining Co. was founded
in 1971 with initial capacity of 85,000
BPSD. The company is involved in
Company 4.1 0.1%
crude oil and hydrocarbon refining.
Market Cap % Total Market Cap.
(million US$)
Persian Gulf
In Persian Gulf International Transportation founded in 1989 as a joint
private stock in Iran and was listed in 2010 in Tehran Stock Exchange.
Petrochemical 11,582 5.7%
The company operates as a distributor of products and goods across the
Industry
country.
Mobarakeh Steel
Esfahan Mobarakeh Steel Company, one of the largest industrial
complexes in the country, started its operation in 1991 with a
Manufacturing 11,322 5.6%
nominal capacity of 2.4 million tons per annum. The company
produces more than 50% of Iran’s steel and operates in seven
Top 5 by Market Capitalization
industrial complexes.
In 1972, Sarcheshmeh Copper Mines Joint Stock Co National Iranian
of Kerman was established and, later, in 1976, it was
renamed to National Iranian Copper Industries Co. to
Copper Industry Co. 10,087 5.0%
cover all copper mines operations throughout the country.
This company is active in extraction & utilization of
copper mines, production of copper concentrates &
manufacturing copper products.
The Social Security
Social Security Investment Company established
in 1986, The company has a diversified sector
Investment
Company 6,323 3.1%
investment portfolio including oil & gas, mining,
pharmaceutical, energy, cement and banking
sectors.
Chadormalu Mining
Founded in 1991, Golgohar Mining &
Industrial Company is one of the largest
iron ore and iron pellet producers in Iran.
The company operates in combined
and Industrial
Company 5,161 2.5%
plants among six iron mine zones about
55 km southwest of Sirjan city near
Kerman province.
Source: Tehran Stock Exchange, Firouzeh Asia Brokerage. All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the unofficial rate.
13 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Top Ranked Companies - Apr 2021 Turnover Value % Total Turnover
(million US$)
Mellat Bank was established in 1979 with the merger of ten pre- Bank Mellat 10.2 0.6%
revolution private banks in Iran. From the outset, the operations of the
bank have included various commercial banking services.
Bank Pasargad, also known as BPI, is a major Iranian
banking establishment offering retail, commercial Bank Pasargad 8.5 0.5%
and investment banking services. The company was
established in 2005 as a part of the government’s
Top 5 Traded by Value
privatization of the banking system.
SAIPA is the second largest Iranian vehicle manufacturer.
The company was established in 1966, with 75% Iranian
ownership, to assemble Citroëns under license for the
SAIPA 7.7 0.5%
Iranian market. Currently, it builds mainly Korean cars,
but also has developed its own engine and range of
cars.
Iran Khodro
Founded in 1962, Iran Khodro Industrial Group
(also known as IKCO) is the leading Iranian
vehicle manufacturer. IKCO produces c.65%
7.2 0.4%
of all domestic vehicles, and is the largest
automotive manufacturer in the Middle East.
5.9
Tejarat Bank was founded in 1979
after the implementation of the Banks Tejarat Bank 0.3%
Nationalization Act and the subsequent
integration of five domestic commercial
banks and six multi-national banks.
Market Cap % Total Market Cap.
(million US$)
Mobarakeh Steel
Esfahan Mobarakeh Steel Company, one of the largest industrial complexes
in the country, started its operation in 1991 with a nominal capacity of 2.4 Manufacturing 11,309 5.6%
million tons per annum. The company produces more than 50% of Iran’s
steel and operates in seven industrial complexes.
Persian Gulf
Persian Gulf International Transportation founded in 1989 as a
joint private stock in Iran and was listed in 2010 in Tehran Stock
Petrochemical
Industry
10,811 5.3%
Exchange. The company operates as a distributor of products and
goods across the country.
Top 5 by Market Capitalization
In 1972, Sarcheshmeh Copper Mines Joint Stock Co National Iranian
of Kerman was established and, later, in 1976, it was
renamed to National Iranian Copper Industries Co. to
Copper Industry Co. 10,243 5.1%
cover all copper mines operations throughout the country.
This company is active in extraction & utilization of
copper mines, production of copper concentrates &
manufacturing copper products.
The Social
6,927
Social Security Investment Company established
in 1986, The company has a diversified sector
Security Investment 3.4%
investment portfolio including oil & gas, mining, Company
pharmaceutical, energy, cement and banking
sectors.
Founded in 1991, Golgohar Mining & Golgohar Mining and
Industrial Company is one of the largest iron
ore and iron pellet producers in Iran. The
company operates in combined plants
Industrial Company 5,881 2.9%
among six iron mine zones about 55 km
southwest of Sirjan city near Kerman
province.
Source: Tehran Stock Exchange, Firouzeh Asia Brokerage. All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the unofficial rate.
14 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Iran’s Fixed Income Market
For the start of the Iranian calendar year 1400 (March 2021) to the end of March total issuance on the
fixed income market reached 10 billion US$ based on the unofficial exchange rate. Yield to maturity
(YTM) remained stable at 21% at the end of March
Iran’s Debt Securities Market - Mar 2021*
0.9 9.4
Iran Farabourse (Junior Market)
Market Value (billion US$)*
13.8
Tehran Stock Exchange
574.2
Iran Farabourse (Junior Market)
Average Daily Trading Value (million US$)*
3,531
Tehran Stock Exchange
156,423
Iran Farabourse (Junior Market)
Average Daily Trading Volume (bonds)
* As of Esfand 1399 (19 Feb- 19 Mar 2021)
Breakdown of Sukuk Issuance in Iran’s Capital Markets, 2021 (1399)** - (billion US$)
60% 20% 11% 6% 3%
Murabaha Sukuk Islamic T-Bills Salaf (Salam) Sukuk Ijarah Sukuk Other
Source: Iran Farabourse
**Calculated by the unofficial exchange rate in the period of issuance, percentages have been rounded and may not total to 100.
15 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Iran’s Fixed Income Market
From the start of the Iranian calendar year 1400 (March 2021) to the end of April, the total issuance on
the fixed income market reached US$ 0.4 billion based on the unofficial exchange rate. Yield to maturity
(YTM) remained stable at 22% at the end of April.
Iran’s Debt Securities Market - Apr 2021*
1.1
Tehran Stock Exchange
10.1
Iran Farabourse (Junior Market)
Market Value (billion US$)*
7.5
Tehran Stock Exchange
408.3
Iran Farabourse (Junior Market)
Average Daily Trading Value (million US$)*
1,880
Tehran Stock Exchange
109,042
Iran Farabourse (Junior Market)
Average Daily Trading Volume (bonds)
* As of Farvardin 1399 (21 Mar- 20 Apr 2021)
Breakdown of Sukuk Issuance in Iran’s Capital Markets, 2021 (1399)** - (billion US$)
83% 8% 9%
Islamic T-Bills Murabaha Sukuk Other
Source: Iran Farabourse
**Calculated by the unofficial exchange rate in the period of issuance, percentages have been rounded and may not total to 100.
16 Iran Investment MonthlyMarket Overview
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Iran’s Fixed Income Market
Snapshot of the Highest Yielding Debt Securtites1 - April
Issuer Type YTM (p.a.) Maturity
Corporate Manfeat 0.211 6-Nov-22
Corporate Musharekat 0.211 20-Jun-23
Corporate Murabaha 0.211 11-Nov-24
Corporate Murabaha 0.211 29-Jan-23
Corporate Murabaha 0.210 16-Jun-24
Corporate Murabaha 0.210 26-Feb-23
Corporate Musharekat 0.208 19-Mar-23
Government Treasury Bill 0.208 3-Jan-22
Corporate Ijarah 0.208 4-Mar-24
Corporate Murabaha 0.207 16-Sep-23
1
This snapshot is a selection of the highest yielding securities with minimum one year maturity in Iran’s debt markets and should not be considered as a solicitation or recommendation by Turquoise Partners.
Iran’s T-bills YTM in IRR Term
Apr 2021
0.22
Source: Tehran Stock Exchange - Iran Farabourse
17 Iran Investment MonthlyEconomic Review
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Latest Updates
Oil Export and Trade Balance
As non-oil exports including oil condensate increased in April 2021 compared to the same month in the
previous couple of years, the trade balance is expected to remain stable. Iran exported 2.9 billion USD
in April 2021; this was close to the amount in April 2018. Iran would be able to balance its payments
and consequently reduce the severe inflation impacting the Iranian population. The US is expected to lift
some oil sanctions in the second half of 2021.
In addition, over the past twelve months ending April 2021, Iran’s non-oil trade (including condensate)
resulted in an average monthly deficit of US$286 million. In April 2021, the trade balance registered at
a surplus of 174 million USD.
Non- oil Export (Including Oil Condensate)
Million USD
Source: Iran Customs Administration
Trade Balance
Million USD
Source: Iran Customs Administration
18 Iran Investment MonthlyEconomic Review
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Exchange Rate
As we are heading towards the Presidential elections, exchange rate fluctuations are expected to be
minimal. The graphic below illustrates that the IRR depreciates vs the USD by approximately 11%
each election year (which is held every 4 years).
However, in 2021, we can see that the IRR has in fact appreciated so far by approximately 13%. This
suggests that the currency will remain stable if not strengthen further until the election on June 18th.
The positive sentiment regarding the nuclear agreement and potential removal of US sanctions are
contributing to this.
Historical Fluctuation of USD vs. IRR in an Election Year
: 18%
: 11%
Source: Bonbast
19 Iran Investment MonthlyNews & Views
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Macroeconomic Data
Iran Economic & Market Data Data Macroeconomic Forecast
Calendar
Unit 2021/ 22 2022/ 23
SCI: CPI by Provinces in the Month of Real GDP Growth (%) 2.5 2.1
Farvardin of the Year 1400
Released: May 2021
Inflation (%) 39 27
SCI: A Selection of Labour Force Survey
Source:IMF
Results: Winter 1399
Released: April 2021
Actual Macroeconomic Data
Unit Period Value Comments
Population Growth % 2011- 2016 1.24% -
1399
Unemployment Rate % 9.6% -
(2020/21)
Inflation Rate % May-21 (Y/Y) 41% 2016 = 100
1399
Non-oil GDP Growth % 0.2% 2011 = 100
(Autumn 2020)
1399
GDP Growth % 0.8% 2011 = 100
(Autumn 2020)
Source: Statistical Center of Iran
20 Iran Investment MonthlyNews & Views
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Recent Brokerage Report Turquoise News
Iran Daily Market Update – May 2021 February 2, 2021
Iran Fara Bourse, the junior equity market, hosted a subscription
26 May 2021 for units of a private equity fund on Monday -- the second of its kind.
25 May 2021
The fund is dubbed as Turquoise Servat Afarin Private Equity
24 May 2021
Fund and its ticker symbol is displayed on the IFB bulletin board
as ‘Servat’. It is operated by Turquoise Partners, a leading finan-
23 May 2021 cial service company in Tehran, the IFB news portal reported.
22 May 2021 A PE fund is a pooled investment scheme used for investments
in equities. Institutional and retail investors provide the capital for
the private equity, and capital can be utilized to fund new tech-
nology, expand working capital and bolster balance sheets of the
companies.
More Information
October 17, 2020
Ramin Rabii, Turquoise Partners CEO’s interview with
The Economist on the recent boom and bust of the Iranian
stock market:
“A steadily weaker Rial has over time boosted non-oil export industries,
such as petrochemicals, metals, engineering services and even
chocolate and pastries”, says Ramin Rabii of Turquoise Partners, a
financial-services group.
The Stock market reflects this industrial diversity. There
are hundreds of stocks in a variety of sectors. And because crude
is a state-owned business, it better reflects the non-oil economy.
The market had a good run last year thanks in large part to
improving export earnings. People took notice. Here was
an asset class that acted as a hedge against the Rial’s diminishing
value. The scene was set for this year’s melt-up in share prices.
“The number of people active in the Stock market went from
700,000 to 5m in a matter of months”, says Mr Rabii.
More Information
21 Iran Investment MonthlyTurquoise Group
April & May 2021 Volume 15 No 170
Asset
• EU Regulated Equity Fund
Management • EU Regulated Fixed Income Fund
• Domestic Fixed Income Fund
• Domestic ETF TSE-30
• Domestic Mutual Fund
• Managed Accounts
Investment
•
Banking Services • M&A
• ECM
• DCM
• Private Placement
• Institutional Equity Sales
• Retail Equity Sales
• Market Entry Strategy
Principal Strategic
Investment s
22 Iran Investment MonthlyApril & May Turquoise Partners
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