Climate Change Service - An introduction Carlo Buontempo, ECMWF @carlo_tuitter
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Climate Change Service
An introduction
Climate Change Carlo Buontempo, ECMWF
@carlo_tuitter ; Carlo.Buontempo@ecmwf.int
Climate
Change z
ECMWF: Centro Europeo de previsione meteorologica a plazo medio
Building the climate data store
Climate
Change We are building a store.
Soon we will open the door to customers.
We are currently putting the products on the shelves.
In situ observations Climate Change Service: Providing users with full access to the in situ instrumental data record, in usable form
Sea Level Production Service
Climate
Change • The ECV is derived from satellite altimetry
• Strong interaction and complementarity with the Copernicus Marine Service (CMEMS):
- C3S: retrieval of long-term variability and focus on the Mean Sea Level stability with a stable
altimeter constellation in time.
- CMEMS: focus on the mesoscale estimation with all satellites missions available to provide the best
sampling.
• Regions of interest: global ocean, Med. sea and Black sea
• Type of products:
Gridded daily maps:
1/4° (global) and 1/8° (Med. And Black seas) of:
• Absolute Dynamic Topography
• Sea Level Anomalies
• Geostrophic velocities
• The existing Sea Level ECV will be first delivered in April 2017 and the record will be
regularly updated.
• A full reprocessing will be delivered in March 2018
• Interactions with spaces agencies will ensure the service quality and evolution.
Climate reanalysis: ERA5
Climate
Change
• Atmosphere/land/wave parameters
• 31 km global resolution, 137 levels
• Hourly output from 1979 onward
• Using 2016 ECMWF forecast system
• Using improved input observations
• Ensemble data assimilation method
• Uncertainty estimates for all ECVs
Data release plan:
Nov 2016 Test data (Jan-Feb 2016)
Sep 2017 Hourly data from 2010 - 2016
Oct 2017 Daily updates at short delay
Apr 2018 Complete from 1979 onward
Seasonal forecasts - first release 12/2016
Climate
Change
Now:
Météo-France
UK Met Office
ECMWF
From next year:
DWD
CMCC
NCEP
JMA
BOM
http://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts
Climate projections
Climate
Change
Service: Providing users with timely access to climate change scenarios produced with
state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP, CORDEX)
CDS infrastructure and toolbox Climate Change
CDS toolbox: Application workflows Climate Change
Sectoral Information System Climate Change
SWICCA Climate Change
Water indicators on the CDS Climate Change
User relevant parameter for energy Climate Change
Climate Change
WISC - Event Set, Vulnerability and Loss
Climate Hazard - Event Set Exposure / Vulnerability Process for Loss Assessment
Change
• Spatial resolution: 25km; Temporal • CORINE – 45 land classes • Datasets clipped to NUTS3 regions
resolution: 6 hours; 5 ensembles; • PAGER – 106 construction types – before loss calculations applied (EU:
6600 significant storms aggregated to 6 types 276 NUTS 2 & 1,342 NUTS3
• UPSCALE (1985 to 2011), based on • Fragility curves applied for these 6 regions)
HadGEM3 GA3 and GL3 types • Loss per hazard (max gust speed)
configurations of Met Office Unified • Fragility curves to vulnerability from fragility curves
Model curves via reconstruction costs • Loss ratio multiplied by
• GDP per NUTS3 region applied reconstruction cost per building type
• Losses adjusted by GDP per region
• Validate losses vs actualsClimate Change
Climate Change
Climate
Change • Operationalisation of water, energy and wind-storm from Q2
2018
• Migration of the POCs into the CDS and toolbox
• New services ( contracts between 200k to 2M) for:
• shipping, agriculture, tourism, DRR, biodiversity, storm
surges, health, transport, fisheries, cultural heritage,…
• 10-15 use cases (grantsCopernicus Climate Change
Service
climate.copernicus.euC3S Reanalysis – 10-year outlook
Climate
2016 - 2019: ERA5 from 1950
Change User requirements: - ERA5T: preliminary data at short delay (C3S Seasonal Forecast – 10-year outlook
Climate
Change Context: Multi-model Seasonal forecast system
User requirements: based on inputs from:
• ECMWF, UKMO, MF, DWD,CMCC
- Multi-model products • + NCEP, JMA, (ECCC?), more
- High resolution Authoritative multi-model products
- Uncertainties • Links with RCCs/RCOFs, other multi-
- Use cases model approaches, etc.
- Additional products
- Latest model developments ECMWF contribution:
- Timely delivery 2018 - 2022: System 5 routine production
- Easy access
- Great user guidance and 2018-2021: Preparation of System 6
support • Includes preparation of ORAS6
2022 – 2026: System 6 routine productionNext Generation C3S: Current Vision Still Valid
Climate
Change
• Authoritative Voice for Europe
• Take stock of European Infrastructure and complement
national climate services at European level (subsidiarity)
• Enable and multiply the market for climate services
THE CLIMATE GATEWAYYou can also read
