Challenges for Research - Fapesp

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Challenges for Research - Fapesp
Challenges for Research
Challenges for Research - Fapesp
Contact Information
Jerry L. Hatfield
Laboratory Director
National Laboratory for Agriculture and the
 Environment
Director, Midwest Climate Hub
2110 University Blvd
Ames, Iowa 50011
515-294-5723
515-294-8125 (fax)
jerry.hatfield@ars.usda.gov
Challenges for Research - Fapesp
Framework For Agronomic
Systems

 Cropping Outputs
 Inputs
 Systems Grain
 Climate
 Corn- Forage
 Soil
 Beans Env. Goods
 Genetics
 Wheat- Nitrate
 Nutrients
 Sunflower Sediment
 Water
 Cotton- GHG’s
 Sorghum

 Mitigation Strategies Adaptation Strategies
Challenges for Research - Fapesp
Climate Factors
 Inputs
  Temperature
 Indirect
  Precipitation
 Insects
  Solar radiation Direct Diseases
  Carbon dioxide
 Growth Weeds
 Phenology
 Yield

 Soil is the underlying factor as a
 resource for nutrients and water
Challenges for Research - Fapesp
Climate vs Weather
 Climate determines where we grow a
 crop
 Weather determines how much we
 produce
Challenges for Research - Fapesp
Maize Yields
 12
 Maize Production
 10
 United States
 Grain Yield (Mg ha )
 -1

 Mexico
 China
 8

 6

 4

 2

 0
 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

 Year
Challenges for Research - Fapesp
Wheat Yields
 6
 Wheat Grain Production
 5 United States
 Mexico
 Grain Yield (Mg ha )
 -1

 China
 4

 3

 2

 1

 0
 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

 Year
Challenges for Research - Fapesp
Projections
“Assuming no change in population growth, food consumption patterns and food
waste management, the following production increases must take place by 2050:
 cereals production must increase by 940 million tonnes to reach 3 billion tonnes;
 (45% increase)
 meat production must increase by 196 million tonnes to reach 455 million
 tonnes; (77% increase)
 and oilcrops by must increase by 133 million tonnes to reach 282 million tonnes
 (89% increase) (Alexabdratos and Bruinsma, 2012).

 It is also estimated that global demand for crop calories will increase by 100
 percent ±11 percent and global demand for crop protein will increase by 110
 percent ±7 percent from 2005 to 2050 (Tilman et al. 2011). “

Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050, the 2012
revision. ESA Working Paper No. 12-03, June 2012. Rome: Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO). (Available from
http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/ap106e/ap106e.pdf)

Tilman D, Balzer C, Hill J, Befort BL. 2011. Global food demand and the sustainable
intensification of agriculture. PNAS 108(50):20260–20264. Washington DC:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.
(Available from http://www.pnas.org/content/108/50/20260)
World Soybean Production
 45

 World Soybean Production
 40

 By 2050, we will
 35
 Yield (bu/A)

 have a 1066 kg/ha
 30
 deficit in
 production
 25
 compared to
 projected
 20
 Data points requirements
 Yield = -789.79 + 0.41 yr r2 = 0.95

 15
 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

 Year
Corn Grain Production
 90

 World Corn Production
 80

 70 By 2050, we
 have a 125
 Yield (bu/A)

 60 kg/ha deficit on
 expected
 50
 production
 40 compared to
 required
 Data points
 30
 Yield = -1979.659 +1.02 yr r2 = 0.97 production
 20
 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

 Year
Wheat Grain Production
 55

 50 World Wheat Production

 45 By 2050, we
 have a 627.2
 Yield (bu/A)

 40
 kg/ha excess in
 35
 production
 30 estimates
 compared to
 25
 Data points
 projected
 20 Yield = -1233.819 + 0.639 yr r2 = 0.98 requirements
 15
 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

 Year
Brazil Wheat
 3000

 Brazil Wheat
 2500
 Yield (kg ha )

 2000
 -1

 1500

 1000

 500
 Data points
 Yield = -68839.61 + 35.35 Year r2=0.80
 0
 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

 Year
Brazil Soybean
 3500

 Brazil Soybean
 3000
 Yield (kg ha )

 2500
 -1

 2000

 1500

 1000 Data points
 Yield = -72874.7 + 37.62 Year r2=0.89

 500
 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

 Year
Climate Factors
 Inputs
  Temperature
 Indirect
  Precipitation
 Insects
  Solar radiation Direct Diseases
  Carbon dioxide
 Growth Weeds
 Phenology
 Yield

 Soil is the underlying factor as a
 resource for nutrients and water
Carbon Dioxide Increases
Present vs. Past

L. Ziska, USDA-ARS
Present vs. Future

L. Ziska, USDA-ARS
Carbon Dioxide-Water
Interactions

 Two levels of CO2 and three soil
 water levels on soybean
CO2 and Temperature
Interactions

 CO2 and temperature effects offset each other in a well-watered
 situation; however, in water limited the positive effect of CO2 is
 dominant
Temperature Responses

Difference in temperature response between the vegetative and reproductive
stage of development for crops. The higher the temperature the faster the rate
of development
Temperature
 Optimum Temp Temp Range Failure
 (C) (C) Temp
Crop Veg Reprod Veg Reprod (C)

 Maize 34 18-32 18-22 35
Soybean 30 26 25-37 22-24 39
Wheat 26 26 20-30 15 34
 Rice 36 33 33 23-26 35-36
Cotton 37 30 34 25-26 35
Tomato 22 22 22-25 30
Nighttime Temperatures
Impact of Warm Nights on Corn
and Soybean Productivity
 7.0
 Corn and Soybean Production Fields
 Net Carbon Flux (mg m s )
 -1

 6.5
 -2

 6.0

 5.5

 5.0

 4.5 Corn
 Soybean

 4.0

 3.5
 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

 Average Minimum Temperature (C)
Temperature effects on Corn
 Phenology

 25 25 25
 Corn Hybrid RX730
 Corn Hybrid DK 61-72 Corn Hybrid XL45A
 20 20 20

 Total Collars
Total Collars

 Total Collars

 15 15 15
 Normal Temperatures Normal Temperatures
 Warm Temperatures Warm Temperatures Normal Temperatures
 Warm Temperatures
 10 10 10

 5 5 5

 0 0 0
 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

 Days after Planting Days after Planting Days after Planting

 1505 15805 5519 19130 4453 24774 kg ha-1
 Rhizotron study with warm chamber 4C warmer than normal
 chamber with simulation of Ames IA temperature patterns.
Rhizotron Results
 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

 Combinations of water
 (g/plant)

 and temperature
 stresses cause
 disruption in pollination
 and grain-fill
 Yield

 100

 Soil Water Levels Soil Water Levels
 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.5
 Normal Temp High Temp (reprod)
Current Reductions in Yields

 Lobell et al. 2011 Science 333:616-620
Current Mega-climate regimes

 Future (2050) mega-
 climate regimes

 Move from a favorable to
 unfavorable climate for
 wheat

 Ortiz et al. Agric Ecosys &
 Environ. 2008. 126:46-58
Temperature Effects on
Evaporation
 14
 Saturation Vapor Pressure (kPa)

 12

 10

 8
 e* = 0.61121 exp(17.502Ta/Ta + 240.97)

 6

 4

 2

 0
 0 10 20 30 40 50

 Air Temperature (C)

 ( 0 − ) [ 0 − ]
 = + 
 (1 + ) 
Global Models Disagree on CO2 (Climate) Effect on ET

 Global gridded
 models (ISI-MIP)
 vary in ET response
 to climate change.

 Response for future
 RCP 8.5 HadGEM-ES:

 Solid - CO2 rising
 Dashed - no CO2
Soil Water Use Rates

 600

 C o rn W a te r U s e 2 0 0 0
 500
 C la rio n S p rin g N (1 0 0 k g /h a )
 W e b s te r S p rin g N (1 0 0 k g /h a )
W a te r U se (m m )

 400 C la rio n F a ll N (2 0 0 k g /h a )
 W e b s te r F a ll N (2 0 0 k g /h a )

 300

 200

 100

 0
 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280

 D ay of Year
Crop Yield Variation
Precipitation
 Expect increased variation among years
 Expect increased variation within a year
 Expect increase in intensity of storms
 and decreased frequency of storms
Soil Water Availability
 35

 Available Water Content (%) 30

 25

 20

 15

 10
 Data Points
 Sand, AWC = 3.8 + 2.2 OM
 5
 Silt Loam, AWC = 9.2 + 3.7 OM
 Silty clay loam, AWC = 6.3 + 2.8 OM
 0
 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

 Organic Matter (%)

 Hudson, 1994
Variation in Yields

 30
 Iowa County Maize Yields
 25
 20% of the yield
 20
 loss occurs 80%
 Frequency

 of the time due
 15
 Cass County
 Floyd County
 to water
 Story County availability
 Washington County
 10

 5

 0
 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

 Fraction of Potential Maize Yield

 The majority of the yield losses due to the weather are short-term stresses
Soybean yields across the
Midwest
 340

 320

 300
 County Yield (g m-2)

 280

 260

 240

 220
 Kentucky
 Iowa
 200 Nebraska
 Kentucky
 180 (Double crop)

 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

 NCCPI-AG
Maize County Yields
 1000

 900
 Mean County Yield (g m-2)

 800

 700

 600
 Y = 436.096 + 478.149X, r2 = 0.58*** Kentucky
 Iowa

 500
 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

 NCCPI-AG
Implications
 Climate will definitely impact crops both
 directly and indirectly
 Soil management to increase water holding
 capacity and reduce E from ET will be a critical
 climate resilient factor
 Quantify the indirect effects due to insects,
 diseases, and weeds
 Quantify the effects of climate change on
 nutritional quality of grain, forage, and produce
 We need to approach climate resilience and
 adaptation strategies as a G x E x M problem
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