Committee on Sustainable Energy Accelerating and Deepening the Transition to Sustainable Energy - Graeme Maxton September 2018 - unece
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Committee on Sustainable Energy
Accelerating and Deepening the Transition to Sustainable Energy
Graeme Maxton
September 2018
Agenda •Climate change today •Why this is happening •What will happen without a different approach •What is needed •What it will cost
Global surface temperatures are rising….. Source: NASA/GISS, July 2017
….. and the pace is accelerating. 2018 will be
the 4th hottest
1.2ºC
In 2018 6,000 fires destroyed
almost 6,000,000 km², including the
largest fire in California’s history
Source: ABC7NEWS
Mati, Greece, 2018 Source: ABC News
Syrian migration is partly due to climate change Observed change in cold season precipitation for the period 1971–2010 minus 1902–70. Anomalies (mm) are relative to the 1902–2010 period. Hoerling et al, J. Climate 25:2146-61
Sea levels are rising
Bekasi
West Java
Villagers wait
for waters to
recede to
bury their
dead
Source: The drowning villages of Indonesia, Al Jazeera, July 2017
© Graeme Maxton 2018In Siberia’s Yamal Peninsula methane is escaping
© Graeme Maxton 2018© Graeme Maxton 2018
Rhône Glacier, Switzerland Fierz Ralph Edward
The insurance costs are rising
2X increase in meteorological loses in 35 years
4X hydrological and climatological loses
© Graeme Maxton 2018Fire-fighting costs are rising too
© Graeme Maxton 2018Preparing for migration
In Bangladesh a metre
sea level rise will
displace 30 million people
So India has built a
double security fence
patrolled by 80,000
troopsWe have 3 or 4 years to avoid 1.5ºC
© Graeme Maxton 2018This is happening due to rising GHG emissions
The correlation
for methane is
almost identical
CO2 is 82% of
emissions, methane
Is 10%. Nitrous
Oxide is 5%,
fluorinated gases
are 3%
Source: Vostok ice core
recordsThe most serious consequence is climate change
The most serious consequence is climate change
What comes next?
Whatever we do, the climate problem will
get worse for at least 20 yearsWe need to avoid 2ºC. 2ºC is a lot
© Graeme Maxton 2018© Graeme Maxton 2018
4ºC (2100) takes the planet back 40 million years
© Graeme Maxton 2018It will get drier National Center for Atmospheric Reserach, 2011 study - Palmer Drought Severity Index
Other consequences
● Rising migration
● Uncertain harvests
● Rising risk of conflict
● Water shortages and droughts
● More severe floods and storms
● Stronger wine, more suicides, fewer species…
● 4ºC – no ice, decaying forests, centuries of heating,
incompatible with a global community, 70m rise in sea
levels, 90% of species dying off including usMaybe 17 years to slow the rate of change 1) Shut the fossil industry, the cement industry and high energy intensive sectors as fast as possible, no matter how much it costs or what it does to GDP 2) Strictly limit the use of conventional cars, aircraft, trucks and ships 3) Invest heavily in carbon capture and renewable energy, with state subsidies 4) Invest in insulation and electrification 5) Build a welfare system to support people and countries during the change 6) Wait 20 years
What will it cost?
● Depends when we start – the more we delay, the more it
will cost
● Energy transition c.$5trn over 20 years, excl stranded
assets, agricultural reform, carbon capture
● Welfare and compensation payments could more than
quadruple that
● GDP would likely decline for a while
● Doing nothing would cost infinitely moreBusinesses have three basic options
Do nothing
Change will come one day and for
many it won‘t be nice – the longer
it takes the harder it will be
A careful transition
Gradually exit dirty businesses like Toyota
or Lego
Become one of the good guys
A green businessCommittee on Sustainable Energy
Accelerating and Deepening the Transition to Sustainable Energy
Graeme Maxton
September 2018You can also read
