Consequences of climate change on French wines - Luc Boucher et Martial Phélippé-Guinvarc'h ...
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Consequences of climate change
on French wines
Luc Boucher et Martial Phélippé-Guinvarc’h
luc.boucher@risquesagricoles.com, Martial.Phelippe-GuinvarcH@univ-lemans.fr
Copyright
French wine map today
17 wine regions
2 Brandies : Cognac & Armagnac
75 000 winegrowers
12 billion euros
748 600 ha / 1,8 millions acres
French wine diversity
• 2 344 grape varieties
• Wine in Quality sign:
o 363 appellation in AOC
o 74 wines in PGI
• Is a real cultural and gastronomic wealth.
• Is a source of heterogeneity
Copyright 2
Impact already observed on wine yields
Yield evolution in France
In work of Jones et al (2005) Climatic
Change, they concludes that
Variability increased on 18 of 27
vineyards studied (↑ CV)
Alsace
Mosel Valley
Bordeaux Rhine Valley
Champagne N. Rhône Valley
Loire Valley S. Rhône Valley
N. Portugal
C. Washington S. Portugal Burgundy-Beaujolais
E. Washington Rioja Burgundy-Côte D’Or
N. Oregon Barolo
S. OreCalifornia Chianti
C. California
S. Califgon
Margaret Hunter
N. ornia
Chile South River Valley
Africa Barossa
Valley
Yield decreased during the last years
Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri et al Copyright
Impact already observed on wine growing date
Impacts on development
Since 1989
-3 day /5years
-5 days
-1.5 day /5years
-1 day /5years
Pictures from Hellman,
Edward. (2003)
Figure 1. Evolution of the main phenological stages (50% budbreak, 50% flowering, 50% veraison) of the Riesling cultivar in
Alsace (Bergheim (68)) over the past 60 years. Data from INRA - Colmar.. Trend curves have been added in order to show the
breaking point in 1988/1989 as described in the text. The variability is significantly lower in the last 30 years compared with the
preceding time period for 50% budbreak and 50% veraison stages (9 days vs 6.5 days and 10 days vs 8.2 days respectively) and
slightly higher for 50% flowering (8 days vs 8.5 days).
Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri et al., 2017
Copyright 4
Impact already observed on wine harvest date and
temperatures
https://www.inrae.fr/actualites/laccave-
vins-adaptes-au-climat-demain
www.science-et-vie.com
-30 days in 50 years
From Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri et al., 2010
Copyright
Impact already observed on wine characteristics
Alcohol
Acidity
Wine caracteristics
Alcohol, acidity
From Jean-Marc Touzard
www.winemag.com Copyright
6
Impact already observed on peste and diseases
From Zito and Bois, 2018
7
Copyright
Projected increase of temperatures
https://www.inrae.fr/actualites
/laccave-vins-adaptes-au-
climat-demain
8
Copyright
Forecast evolution of favorables areas for wine
Vineyards will go to the north-east
9
Copyright
https://www.inrae.fr/actualites/laccave-vins-adaptes-au-climat-demain
Factors impacting vine production
From Hervé
Quénol. (2011)
Observation et
modélisation
spatiale du
climat aux
échelles fines
dans un contexte
de changement
climatique.
Géographie.
Université
Rennes 2.
Copyright 10The French National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate
Change
1. Adaptation of grape varieties in each vineyard
2. Vineyards practices (irrigation, pruning,.. ) and crop protection
3. New winemaking practices (fermentation, cooling, unalcoholisation, .. )
4. Integration of consumers expectations (taste, environment, low-carbon
value-chain)
From France Agrimer / INAO (2019)
This strategy
emphasizes a systemic and global approach
aims to preserve actual vineyards and its heritage.
But what about risks ? Copyright 11Vines Crop Yield Insurances in France
% de
MPCI (Hail included) : 2018 2019 From CCR 2020 in
variation Descrozaille report to
Number of policies 9 678 9 790 1,2 minister of agriculture
Insured area (ha) 189 966 199 723 5,1
Diffusion rate (%) 25,5 26,6 4,3
Insured winegrower 9 460 9 759 3,2
Amount eligible to subsidy (Mds€) 1,5 1,6 6,7
Premium eligible to subsidy (M€) 52,9 58,7 11
Total premium (M€) 72,4 79,4 9,7
Premium rate (%) 3,6 3,6 0
Hail (Deductible 10%) 2019 From FFA 2020 in
Insured amount (Mds€) 1,4 Descrozaille report to
minister of agriculture
Total premium (M€) 43
Premium rate (%) 3,0%
12
CopyrightFrost risk example :
9 et 10 april 2021
See also
https://www.inrae.fr/actuali
tes/laccave-vins-adaptes-
au-climat-demain
Copyright 13Frost risk example
Statistics from SYNOP open weather
data (France)
CFD is the cumulate temperature under
273,5 K (frost temperature) for the month
of mars, April and May
Naive intuition : as the earth overheats,
the risk of frost in spring decreases but
• these three regressions presents not
significant coefficients
• April and May give positive
coefficients
• a record cold is reached in April 21
Copyright 14Andreas F. P,, Greg J. H., Global estimates of damaging hail hazard,
Weather and Climate Extremes, Volume 22, 2018, p.10-23
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.10.004. Hail risk example
Observed annual average
large hail day frequency for
the period 1979 to 2015 in a
100.100 km area for the
CONUS (a), Australia (b),
and Europe (c). The
corresponding annual time
series of accumulated large
hail occurrences are shown
in d–f.
Copyright 15Hail risk example (in France, from 2015) From authors (Data provided by UbyRisk) Copyright 16
Solvability in crop yield insurance
All crops are affected by climate
Correlation between crop and tail
dependance
Estimated probable maximum losses for
major events
Public reinsurance
See also: Mahul, O., & Stutley, C. J. (2010). Government support to agricultural
insurance: challenges and options for developing countries. World Bank Publications. Copyright 17Adaptation of Insurance and conclusions
The main challenges of tomorrow are those of today
• Policy specifications have to : • Acturarial model Challenges :
o Promote new best practices o IA, Open/big data, tail
less risky areas, varieties and practices dependance, spatial correlation
crop protections
oPremium of increasing risk
o Re-adjust the cursor between oUse theory of incentives
pooling and solidarity • Lobbying:
oPublic Reinsurance and Subsidies
Work on the complementarity of risks management tools
Winegrowers need an individual risks estimation
Copyright 18References
GU, S. Growing degree hours-a simple, accurate, and precise protocol to approximate growing heat summation
for grapevines. International journal of biometeorology, 2016, vol. 60, no 8, p. 1123-1134.
Andreas F. P,, Greg J. H., Global estimates of damaging hail hazard, Weather and Climate Extremes, Volume 22,
2018, p.10-23 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.10.004
Hellman, Edward. (2003). Grapevine Structure and Function. Grape Grower's Handbook.
Hervé Quénol. (2011) Observation et modélisation spatiale du climat aux échelles fines dans un contexte de
changement climatique. Géographie. HDR, Université Rennes 2.
Di Lena, B., Silvestroni, O., Lanari, V., & Palliotti, A. (2019). Climate change effects on cv. Montepulciano in some
wine-growing areas of the Abruzzi region (Italy). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136(3), 1145-1155.
European Council Conclusions relatives à la situation économique et sociale, Dublin 03/12/1984
https://ec.europa.eu/dorie/fileDownload.do?docId=203823&cardId=203823
Mahul, O., & Stutley, C. J. (2010). Government support to agricultural insurance: challenges and options for
developing countries. World Bank Publications.
https://www.oiv.int/public/medias/6782/oiv-2019-statistical-report-on-world-vitiviniculture.pdf
https://ec.europa.eu/dorie/fileDownload.do?docId=203823&cardId=203823
Santos, J. A., Fraga, H., Malheiro, A. C., Moutinho-Pereira, J., Dinis, L. T., Correia, C., ... & Schultz, H. R. (2020). A
review of the potential climate change impacts and adaptation options for European viticulture. Applied
Sciences, 10(9), 3092.
Copyright 19INRAE has a
study project on
the topic of
climate change
for wine, named
Laccave
INRAE is France's
National
Research
Institute for
Agriculture, Food
and Environment
Laccave project
highlights
several
interesting results
on the subject
used in this
presentation.
Copyright 20Annexe: Historical events from 2020
Extrême Années Périodes Impact
Canicule 2003, 2006, 2015, Fin Juin – Début Août Maturation, arrêt
2016, 2017, 2018, physiologique
2019
Sècheresse 2003, 2011, 2015 – Printemps, Été, Hiver Localisé et variable
2018, 2019 Croissance, nutrition,
2020 qualité, production
Températures 2007, 2011, 2015- Hiver, Printemps Précocité du
2016, 2018 développement,
From work of Iñaki élevés Hiver doux—> moins
Garcia de Cortazar- de control sur les
Atauri (2020) pathogènes
Période 2002, 2004, 2011, Printemps, Été, Floraison,
2013, 2016, 2018 automne Vendanges
pluvieuse
Gel 2012, 2016, 2017, Sortie d’hiver, Mortalité de plants
2019, 2020, 2021 printemps
Grêle 2008(3), 2009 (5), Printemps - Été Localisé –
2010(3), 2012(4), destruction de
2013(3), 2014(4), plantes et
2016(2), 2017, 2018 production
21
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