Contribution of VAAC Toulouse to VOLCEX17 - VOLCEX17/01
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Contribution of VAAC
Toulouse to VOLCEX17
VOLCEX17/01
Philippe Héreil
VAAC Toulouse Manager EUNADICS Meeting, Rome, June 2018
International Aviation Volcano Watch and VAACs (2018)
Operations at Toulouse Met Service for Aviation
Met Service for Aviation (en route information) : 3 forecasters on duty in
Toulouse Operations Center, 24h / 7 days
1 - LLSIGWX Charts over France
2- Meteo Watch Office (SIGMET)
3- SIGWX Charts over Europe + VAAC
VAAC Toulouse and VAAC London are mutual back-ups
VOLCEX17 Scenario (29-30th November 2017) VOLCEX : Annual ICAO Volcanic Ash (VA) Exercise on EUR/NAT Region 16 States, 5 Airlines and 5 International Organizations Leader for VOLCEX17 : Portugal with the support of Eurocontrol/NM Aim : to test the EUR/NAT VA Contingency Plan (procedures, coordination, ATM responsiveness ), crisis coordination Weather scenario : past meteorological conditions (5th- 8th Feb. 2017) ARPEGE (Meteo France NWP model) analyses (10 km resolution)
Volcanic Scenario and dispersion model 24-h eruption Mt Agua de Pau (Azores, Portugal, 943m) Ash production with a plume rising up to 40,000 ft. MOCAGE-ACCIDENT dispersion model - Dedicated version of the MOCAGE Air-Quality model (eulerian), used for transport and dispersion of passive tracers from regional to global scale. - Resolution : 0.5°on the horizontal, 28 vertical levels - Meteorological input provided by either ARPEGE or IFS model - Advection, convection, turbulent mixing schemes - Physical processes : dry and wet depositions, gravitational deposition, no chemical processes (computational cost) - Computational time : 5 min for a 24-h forecast
Typical sequence for VAAC operations on a VOLCEX day H0 : Volcano observatory (Azores) issues VONA > VAAC Toulouse, ACC, MWO < H0+20 min : VAAC issues on WAFS a 1st VAA/VAG based upon observations (sat+VONA) < H0+45min : collect of information on the source term, VAAC runs the MOCAGE Accident model (then sequential runs if new observations are provided) < H0+75min : VAAC issues VAA/VAG (T0, T0+6h, T0+12h, T0+18h forecasts) on WAFS, + Specific products (e.g. concentration charts) on VAAC public Website Operational NM teleconference (All). Briefing by a VAAC forecaster+ outlook European Aviation Crisis Coordination Cell teleconference : Eurocontrol, EASA, IATA, EC
ICAO Scheme for VA Warning
ATS/AIS/NOF
MWO
VAAC EUROCONTROL
OCC
DETECTION
Volc Obs.
VAAC regular products : Volcanic Ash Graphics (VAG) VAG based upon observations (satellite, lidars, AIREPs, etc) and dispersion model outputs Forecaster’s skill is involved : in case of shift between obs. and model outputs (e.g. VA cloud altitude or position ), VAG is corrected VAG also posted in .csv format on the VAAC Website (used by NM/EVITA)
VAAC products : Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAA) VAA : text version of VAG FVXX01 LFPW 290606 VA ADVISORY DTG: 20171129/0600Z VAAC: TOULOUSE VOLCANO: AGUA DE PAU 382090 PSN: N3746 W02528 AREA: AZORES SUMMIT ELEV: 947M ADVISORY NR: 2017/02 INFO SOURCE: EXERCISE VOLCEX17/01 AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED ERUPTION DETAILS: EXERCISE VOLCEX17/01 PLEASE DISREGARD OBS VA DTG: 29/0600Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL200 …...FL200/550….. FCST VA CLD +6HR: 29/1200Z SFC/FL200 …..FL200/550…. FCST VA CLD +12HR: 29/1800Z SFC/FL200 ….FL200/550…. FCST VA CLD +18HR: 30/0000Z SFC/FL200 ...FL200/550…. RMK: EXERCISE VOLCEX17/01 DISREGARD EXERCISE NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN 29/1200Z
VAAC specific products : Annotated satellite views (fictious)
Posted in real time on the VAAC Website
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1 ligne 2 ligne 3 ligne 4 ligneVAAC specific products : Ash dissemination forecasts : FL200-FL350
VOLCEX17 Modelled Ash Concentration from FL200 to FL350 (max value in the column) 0.2 ≤ C ≤ 2 mg/ m3
2 < C ≤ 4 mg/ m3
C > 4 mg/ m3Use of observations in the VAAC
operations
- VONA from volcano observatories
- Satellite pictures : specific processings for VA identification
- Pilot Report - Special AIREP : even a ‘No Ash’ Observation is valuable
- SO2 observations from satellite
- Lidars
Essential information for the VAAC production by allowing the forecaster :
- To possibly modifiy the eruption source term (more realistic) for the model run ;
- To adapt the VA advisories (VAA and VAG) in case of shift between model output
and observations
VAAC forecaster analysis is ESSENTIAL, especially for the 1st hours
(T0-T0+6h)VAAC Toulouse : PROSPECTS
• Increase of resolution for the MOCAGE Accident dispersion model : 0.1°
(instead of 0.5°)
Strong impact on the source term representation(16 gridpoints) and
finner description of the VA dispersion
• Developments are in progress in MOCAGE model to :
- allow to modify the kinetic profile and the vertical distribution of the source term
- include SO2 dispersion
- assimilate lidar and satellite VA observations (2020)
• VOLCEX18 Exercise (Nov. 2018): VAAC Toulouse as back-up of the VAAC London
• New web site for VAAC (Sept. 2018)Improvements to come : new web site
http://vaac.meteo.fr/Comments / Remarks with regards to some
EUNADICS WP
How to improve the VA information delivered by the VAACs?
• WP3 and WP5 : observations and early notification
Interest for a platform regrouping observations : easier management +
information crossing (confidence)
Confidence in observations is needed (crossing informations is helpful) : first VAG
+ source term description
Early notifications are essential for VAAC : high reactivity is required
• WP7 and validation exercise
International VA exercises already exist in Europe : VOLCEX
Involve trained teams, validated processes, participation of major stakeholders
(ICAO, EASA, NM, airlines, MetServices, IATA,VAACs)
Operational organization with high availibilty and eficiency
Recom. Do not create a new parallel system but try to improve the existing one!
Join VOLCEX19 (Nov. 2019)?QUESTIONS ?
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