COVID-19 Impact on Hotels in Asia Pacific - APRIL 2020 Peggy Lee Analyst Chariss Kok Xin Manager Chee Hok Yean Regional President - HVS.com
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HVS.COM COVID-19 Impact on Hotels in Asia Pacific APRIL 2020 Peggy Lee Analyst Chariss Kok Xin Manager Chee Hok Yean Regional President
Asia Pacific Overview FR
The momentum in visitor arrivals has been lost due to the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic. January 2020 kick off with robust visitor arrivals
before registering an average decrease of approximately 35% and 65%
across the region (Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Maldives,
Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam) in February
and March, respectively. Similarly, the COVID-19 outbreak had cast a
shadow over the hotel performance in Asia Pacific. Hotel occupancy
decreased by an average of 9% and 27% in February and March,
respectively. Average Daily Rate (ADR) decreased by an average of 7%
and 10%, translating to an average decrease of 19% and 55% in February
and March for Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR), respectively.
In March, all the ten countries experienced a decline in occupancy rate,
ADR and RevPAR within the range of approximately 20% to 35%, 6% to
17%, and 40% to 60%, respectively.
Some of the common measures to stem the spread of COVID-19
includes barring foreign visitors, 14-days quarantine, avoiding non-
essential travel plans, enforcing social distancing, working from home,
banning mass gatherings and events, and temporary closure of
attractions, community facilities, entertainment venues, schools and
places of worship.
To assist frontline health workers, affected businesses and employees,
governments announced stimulus packages and various incentives such
as providing credit facility, handing out cash grants, lowering of interest
rates, wage subsidies, offering tax breaks, and supporting SMEs and
hard-hit sectors.
While the pandemic is anticipated to prolong, hotels should start to
draw up plans in preparation for a recovery. In the meanwhile, it is the
perfect time to relook into operational strategies, cost-saving initiatives,
refurbishment, marketing distribution channels, staff training and
technology upgrade.
2
Source: Unsplash
Global Measures FR
Globally, many countries have allocated or pledged record amount of economic relief package to
cushion the impact caused by COVID-19. The following highlights some of the key initiatives:
China's central bank has cut the rate on reverse repurchase agreements by 20 basis points, the largest
in nearly five years to relieve the economic pressure. The People's Bank of China had also injected
RMB50 billion yuan into the money markets. Other forms of economic relief include relaxing
penalties on bad debts, cutting interest rates, reducing taxes, allowing borrowers to skip interest
payments for as long as six months, and pledging to adopt more "proactive" fiscal policies.
South Korea has pledged KRW96.7 trillion (USD80 billion) in economic stimulus, where KRW29.1
trillion will be granted as loans to small- and medium-sized companies, KRW20 trillion will be used to
buy corporate bonds and commercial paper of companies facing a credit crunch, the Financial Services
Commission announced a KRW10.7 trillion facility set up to stabilise stock markets. It will also
commence a bond buying facility in April that will be funded by 84 institutions, including the Bank of
Korea, commercial banks and insurers. The transport ministry, financial regulator and state-run Korea
Development Bank has also announced that they would extend up to KRW300 billion of liquidity to
domestic budget carriers to provide relief.
Thailand has announced an THB411 billion (USD12.7 billion) stimulus package in the form of soft
loans, a fund, and tax benefits for those affected by the outbreak. The soft loan will amount to
THB150 billion. There will also be relaxed debt repayments and lower interest rates for businesses,
while the central bank has also asked banks to help debtors, withholding taxes for businesses to be
reduced. Support for utilities costs, and higher tax benefits from some long-term fund investments
were also announced. The government will set up a THB20 billion fund to help firms or workers
affected by the coronavirus outbreak.
The United Kingdom has announced a stimulus package standing at £350 billion which include
£330bn in state-backed loans for all businesses through the banking system with the help of the Bank
of England, £20bn in other aid, a business rates holiday, and grants for retailers and pubs. Help for
airlines is also being considered. Smaller businesses would be able to access cash grants of between
£10,000 to £25,000 to see them through the crisis.
The United States of America (USA) has approved three stimulus packages worth USD2.5 trillion,
which comes in the form of loans, tax breaks and direct payments for major corporations and
individual taxpayers.
3
Source: Unsplash
Australia FR
Total Cases Number of Death Recovered Cases
6,746 90 5,685
*As of 30 April 2020
TOTAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (2014-2019) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (2014-2019)
Australia began restricting China arrivals on 1 February, Iran arrivals on 1 March, South
Korean arrivals on 5 March and Italy arrivals on 11 March. Thereafter, the government
25,000
International Visitor Arrivals Y-o-Y Growth Rate
9.0%
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate (%) started enforcing social distancing measures such as limiting the number of people per
5Y CAGR: 5.1%
8.0%
225
200
100%
95%
outdoor gathering, closing pubs and clubs, and limiting restaurants to take-away services
20,000 7.0% 175 90% only. On 18 March, Australian citizens are strongly encouraged to defer all travel plans
Y-o-Y Growth Rate (%)
Tota l Visitor Arri vals
6.0% 150
85%
abroad. Shortly, on 20 March, all non-Australian citizens and residents are denied entry
(i n thousands)
15,000 80%
5.0%
(In AUD)
125
4.0% 100
75% into Australia. On 23 March, Australia has declared a one-month lockdown. On 16 April,
10,000
3.0% 75
70%
65%
Australia has announced a four-week extension for the lockdown period.
5,000 2.0% 50 60%
1.0% 25 55% Change from Previous Month Change from Same Time Last Year
0 0.0% 0 50%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020
Visitor Arrivals - - - -
SEASONALITY (2014 - MARCH 2020) SOURCE MARKETS (2019)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Occupancy Rate 1.5 p.p. -26.2 p.p. -5.2 p.p. -30.5 p.p.
8,000 15.2%
China
ADR -5.4% -6.3% -4.5% -8.5%
7,500
7,000
New Zealand RevPAR -3.3% -40.7% -10.9% -45.0%
Total Visitor Arrivals
(in thousands)
6,500 15.1% U.S.A
48.2%
6,000 U.K.
Key Government Initiatives and Measures
5,500
8.6% Japan • AUD80 Billion Loan Relief Package: Up to AUD80 billion is allocated to offer business
5,000
4,500 7.6%
Others loan relief, this includes deferring loan repayments for small businesses for six months
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5.3%
at a cost of AUD8 billion. Other stimulus includes quantitative easing and a three-year
funding facility for at least AUD90 billion to the country's banks at a fixed rate of
TOTAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (JAN-MAR) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (JAN-MAR) 0.25%.
•
8,000
7,000
250
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate
100% AUD130 Billion Job Keeper Payment: AUD130 billion is allocated to provide
6,000 200 80%
replacement wages to up to six million people who may lose their jobs otherwise due
to the Covid-19 outbreak. The scheme will benefit almost half the workforce and will
Tota l Visitor Arri vals
5,000
(i n thousands)
150 60%
provide people with AUD1,500 per fortnight, or about 70% of the average wage.
(In AUD)
4,000
3,000 100 40%
2,000
50 20%
• Cash Flow Support for SMEs and Non-Profit Organisations: Temporary cash flow
1,000 support will be provided to small and medium businesses (SMEs) and non-profitable
0
2018 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2019 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar
0
2018 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2019 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar
0%
organisations that employ staff during the economic downturn associated with
*Feb and Mar 2020 data not available COVID-19. The government will provide tax-free cash flow boosts of between
Source: Australia Government, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Communication, HVS Research AUD20,000 and AUD100,000 to eligible businesses, delivered
4 through credits in the activity statement system.
Indonesia FR
Total Cases Number of Death Recovered Cases
10,118 792 1,522
*As of 30 April 2020
Indonesia has implemented a travel ban on China, and bar visitors with recent travel
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (2014-2019) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (2014-2019)
history to China on 5 February. On 8 March, Indonesia has banned entry and transit of
International Visitor Arrivals Y-o-Y Growth Rate Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate (%)
visitors with recent travel history to affected regions in Iran, Italy and South Korea.
18
5Y CAGR: 11.3%
40% 12,000 100% Subsequently on 20 March, Spain, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom were added
16 35% 95%
onto the list. In addition, Indonesia has declared a two-weeks state of emergency in
Tota l International Visitor Arri vals
10,000
14 90%
30%
Jakarta, Yogyakarta, West Java, East Java, Banten, West and East Kalimantan till 2 April.
Y-o-Y Growth Rate (%)
12 85%
(In Thousands/IDR)
8,000
25%
(i n mi llions)
10
20% 6,000
80%
75%
On 31 March, Indonesia announced temporary ban to all foreign visitors. On 10 April,
8
6
15%
4,000
70% Jakarta announced wide-scale social restrictions till 24 April, however, this has since been
4
10%
65%
60%
extended till 22 May. From 24 April to 1 June, Indonesia has suspended all passenger
2,000
2 5%
55% flights.
0 0% 0 50%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Change from Previous Month Change from Same Time Last Year
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020
SEASONALITY (2014 - MARCH 2020) SOURCE MARKETS (2019)
Visitor Arrivals -30.4% - -28.9% -
1,800
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
16.6%
Malaysia Occupancy Rate -2.8 p.p. -24.4 p.p. -3.1 p.p. -28.1 p.p.
1,600
China ADR -18.8% -9.8% -17.3% -17.3%
Total International Arrivals
1,400
1,200
11.6% Singapore RevPAR -22.6% -48.2% -21.5% -55.4%
(in thousands)
46.6%
1,000
800 Australia
Key Government Initiatives and Measures
600
400
10.9% Timor Leste
• IDR22.92 Trillion Emergency Fiscal Stimulus Package: IDR22.92 trillion is allocated to
200
Others
protect Indonesia’s economy which includes tax breaks.
0 7.8%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 6.6%
• IDR298.5 Billion Tourism Budget: IDR298.5 billion is allocated to stabilise Indonesia’s
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (JAN-MAR)
economy and aid tourism businesses through the economic slowdown. This includes
HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (JAN-MAR)
IDR98.5 billion incentive for airlines and tour operators, aimed to encourage special
1,600
1,200,000
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate
100%
discounts for foreign tourists, IDR103 billion for tourism promotional activities, IDR25
1,400
billion to improve tourist attractions, and IDR72 billion to be invested on influencers.
Tota l International Visitor Arri vals
1,200 1,000,000
80%
1,000
• IDR860 Billion Aviation Relief Package: IDR860 billion is allocated to provide relief to
(i n thousands)
800,000
60%
800
the aviation sector. IDR443 billion will be granted to airlines, in the form of a 30%
(In IDR)
600,000
600
400
400,000
40%
discount for 25% of the total available seats per flight to 10 tourist destinations such
200 200,000
20% as Yogyakarta, Manado, Bali, Mandalika, Labuan Bajo, Bangka Belitung, and Batam.
0
Other support measures include aviation fuel discounts and reduced aircraft
*Mar
2018 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar
2020 data not available
2019 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 0
2018 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2019 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar
0%
passenger services fees.
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Statistic Indonesia, HVS Research
• IDR3.3 Trillion Tax Relief: IDR3.3 trillion is allocated to 33 district and city
5
governments in the ten tourist destinations in return for waiving hotel
and restaurant taxes for the next six months.
Japan FR
Total Cases Number of Death Recovered Cases
14,165 437 3,187
*As of 30 April 2020
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (2014-2019) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (2014-2019)
Japan has announced its first confirmed COVID-19 case in on 16 January. On 1 February,
Japan banned the entry of visitors from Hubei, China, and shortly on 4 February, the
35
International Visitor Arrivals Y-o-Y Growth Rate
70%
180
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate (%)
100%
nation was plagued with the Diamond Princess Cruise outbreak. On 13 February, Japan
banned entry of visitors from Zhejiang, China. On 27 February, Japan banned visitors from
5Y CAGR: 18.4%
30 60% 160 95%
90%
Daegu City/Cheongdo County in North Gyeongsang Province. By 3 April, Japan has
Tota l International Visitor Arri vals
140
25 50%
85%
Y-oY Growth Rate (%)
120
banned visitors from the United States, China, most of Europe, Australia, Britain, South
(In Hundreds/JPY)
80%
(i n mi llions)
20 40%
100
15 30% 80
75%
70%
Korea and many Southeast Asia countries. On 7 April, Japan declared state of emergency
10 20%
60
65% in Tokyo, Chiba, Kanagawa, Saitama in the Greater Tokyo region, and Osaka and Hyogo
5 10%
40
20
60%
55%
prefectures in the Kansai region and Fukuoka on Kyushu island.
0 0% 0 50%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Measures to curb virus spread were implemented, including urging firms to allow
employees to work from home and temporary closure of attractions across Japan, from
SEASONALITY (2014 - MARCH 2020) SOURCE MARKETS (2018) museums and galleries to theme parks and tourist attractions.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
3,500
23.0% 24.2% Korea
Change from Previous Month Change from Same Time Last Year
3,000
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020
Tota l International Visitor Arri vals
China
2,500
Taiwan
Visitor Arrivals - - - -
(i n thousands)
2,000 3.6%
Hong Kong
1,500 7.1%
Thailand
Occupancy Rate -8.7 p.p. -32.2 p.p. -18.7 p.p. -52.1 p.p.
1,000
500
15.3%
26.9%
Others ADR -8.8% -16.7% -12.2% -30.1%
0
*2019
RevPAR -19.6% -58.2% -31.9% -73.1%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec full year data not available
Key Government Initiatives and Measures
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (JAN-MAR) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (JAN-MAR) • JPY108 Trillion Stimulus Package: JPY108 trillion is allocated to provide economic
relief to Japan. This includes JPY80 trillion to protect jobs and save small and medium-
1600
1400
16,000
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate
100% sized businesses. Employment subsidies will be expanded to help firms pay salaries
and interests, and avoid job cuts. Government-backed lending institutions will offer
Total International Visitor Arrivals
14,000
1200 80%
12,000
interest-free loans, and handouts of up to JPY2 million will be available for applicable
(in thousands)
1000
800
10,000
60%
small and medium-sized businesses. JPY2.5 trillion will be allocated to assist medical
(In JPY)
8,000
600
6,000
40% institutions and research and development efforts. Cash handouts of JPY300,000 will
400
4,000
also be available to low income families. Financial incentives worth an estimated
20%
JPY15.7 trillion will be set aside to attract manufacturing activities back to Japan.
200
2,000
0
2018 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2019 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 0
2018 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2019 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar
0%
Lastly, JPY8.5 trillion will be set aside to boost tourism, transport and the
*Mar 2020 data not available
restaurant and entertainment sectors after the coronavirus is contained. This
Source: Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), HVS Research
6 includes marketing campaigns and offering of coupons and discounts.
Malaysia FR
Total Cases Number of Death Recovered Cases
6,002 102 4,171
*As of 30 April 2020
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (2014-2019) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (2014-2019)
On 7 February, Malaysia expanded a ban on visitors from China to include Zhejiang and
Average Daily Rate Revenue per Available Room Occupancy
Jiangsu provinces in addition to Hubei province. On 16 March, the government
International Visitor Arrivals Y-o-Y Growth Rate
28 8%
400 0.8 implemented a movement control order to restrict movement nationwide. All Malaysians
5Y CAGR: -1.0%
6% 350 0.7 was barred from travelling abroad and there was also a ban on all foreign visitors.
Tota l International Visitor Arri vals
28
4% 300 0.6
Y-o-Y Growth Rate (%)
27
At the same time, an order was issued to ban mass gatherings, including religious, sports,
(In MYR)
2% 250 0.5
(i n mi llions)
27
0% 200 0.4 social and cultural events. All houses of worship, businesses, schools, universities are to
26
-2% 150 0.3 close, except supermarkets, markets, mini markets and convenience stores. All
26
-4% 100 0.2 government and private premises will be closed except those in essential services. On 25
25 -6% 50 0.1
March, the coronavirus lockdown was extended by two weeks to 28 April from the initial
25 -8% 0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 cutoff point. Subsequently, on 23 April, the government announced to extend its one-
month lockdown by another two weeks to 12 May. However, there have been early signs
SEASONALITY (2014 - MARCH 2020) SOURCE MARKETS (2019) of COVID-19 restrictions being eased in Malaysia. The government plans to monitor the
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 situation for up to four weeks before proposing to reopen the social and educational
3.00
25.3% sectors.
International Visitor Arrivals (in millions)
2.75 Singapore
2.50
38.9% Indonesia Change from Previous Month Change from Previous Year
2.25 China
2.00
4.7% Thailand Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020
1.75 Brunei
1.50 7.2%
Others
Visitor Arrivals - - - -
1.25
1.00 11.9% 11.9%
Occupancy Rate -15.4 p.p. -24.2 p.p. -16.1 p.p. -42.1 p.p.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
ADR -10.8% -10.1% -9.1% -11.8%
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (JAN-MAR) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (JAN-MAR)
RevPAR -33.0% -56.9% -32.5% -69.4%
3,000
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate
Key Government Initiatives and Measures
• RM230 Billion Economic Stimulus Package: This package is in addition to the RM20
400 80.0%
2,500
Total International Visitor Arrivals
350 70.0%
2,000 300 60.0%
billion package announced on 27 February. RM128 billion will be allocated to improve
(in thousands)
1,500
250 50.0%
the welfare of Malaysians through one-off cash payments to households and
(In MYR)
200 40.0% individuals. Other benefits include discounts on utility bills, deferments of rental
1,000
150 30.0% payment for public housing, reduction of the minimum Employees Provident Fund’s
500 100 20.0% contribution. RM100 billion is allocated to support affected businesses through cash
0
2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
50 10.0%
flow relief including exemption from contributions to the mandatory Human
0 0.0%
*2020
Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar
2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 Resources Development Fund for six months, wage subsidies for three months,
data not available Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar
increase existing funds in providing financial assistance to SMEs and loan
Source: Tourism Malaysia, HVS Research
7 guarantees to larger firms for working capital financing. Bank Negara
Malaysia will provide a special relief facility worth RM2 billion.
Maldives FR
Total Cases Number of Death Recovered Cases
278 1 17
*As of 30 April 2020
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (2014-2019) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (2014-2019)
On 7 March, Maldives recorded the first positive COVID-19 cases on Kuredu Island Resort,
and the patients were moved to an isolation center in Farukolhufushi island. On 8 March,
1.8 International Visitor Arrivals Y-o-Y Growth Rate 16.5%
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate (%) two more cases were confirmed on Sandies Bathala Maldives. Maldives imposed an entry
1.6
1.4
5Y CAGR: 7.2% 800 100%
95%
and transit ban on visitors and crew with travel history to Italy. Shortly, on 9 March, two
700
more cases were confirmed on Kuredu Island Resort. On 10 March, Maldives announced
Tota l International Arri vals
90%
Y-o-Y Growth Rate (%)
1.2 11.0% 600
85%
that passengers and crew with travel history to Bangladesh will not be allowed entry to
(i n mi llions)
1.0
500
80%
(In USD)
0.8
400 75% the country, until 24 March.
0.6 5.5% 70%
300
65%
The Maldives government has declared a state of public health emergency on 12 March
0.4
200
60%
0.2
0.0 0.0%
100
0
55%
50%
after recording a total of eight confirmed COVID-19 cases. In the following days, the
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 government took precautions including quarantining several resorts, closing public
spaces, disinfecting public transport, postponing the re-opening of schools, halting tourist
SEASONALITY (2014 - MARCH 2020) SOURCE MARKETS (2019) excursions, and banning guesthouses from checking-in foreigners in Greater Male.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
200
16.7%
China On 21 March, the Maldives government had placed temporary travel bans on individuals
180
160 India arriving from COVID-19 affected countries including China, Iran, Italy, Bangladesh, Spain,
Total International Arrivals
140
9.7% Malaysia, Britain, the United States, Sri Lanka, parts of South Korea, France and Germany.
(in thousands)
120 Italy
100
80
50.4%
Germany The government further implemented strict measures by halting the issuance of visas on-
8.0%
60
40
United Kingdom arrival starting from 27 March.
20 7.7%
Others
-
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
7.4% On 15 April, Maldives declared a lockdown in in Male, Hulhmale, Villingili, Thilafushi, and
Gulhifalhu, which has since been extended to 1 May.
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (JAN-MAR) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (JAN-MAR) Change from Previous Month Change from Same Time Last Year
200
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020
180 1,000 100%
160 900 Visitor Arrivals -13.6% - -11.1% -
Tota l International Visitor Arri vals
800 80%
140
700 Occupancy Rate -4.2 p.p. -35.3 p.p. -14.6 p.p. -36.7 p.p.
(i n thousands)
120
600 60%
(In USD)
100
500 ADR -19.1% -6.2% -11.5% -7.9%
80
400 40%
60 300 RevPAR -23.6% -52.1% -26.4% -53.8%
40 200 20%
20 100 Key Government Initiatives and Measures
• MVR2.5 Billion Finance Package: The government has declared a MVR2.5 billion
0
0 0%
2018 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2019 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar
*Mar 2020 data not available package to provide financial support for the businesses experiencing economic loss
Source: Ministry of Tourism Maldives , HVS Research as a result of COVID-19. The Bank of Maldives has announced a USD2 million
8 short-term financing facility for the tourism industry.
Myanmar FR
Total Cases Number of Death Recovered Cases
150 6 27
*As of 30 April 2020
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (2014-2019) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (2014-2019)
On 29 February, Myanmar suspended visas-on-arrival for Chinese travellers. On 25
International Visitor Arrivals Y-o-Y Growth Rate
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy rate
March, all Myanmar nationals and foreigners travelling to the country are required to
6,000
5Y CAGR: 7.2%
60% 200 100% present laboratory evidence of absence of COVID-19 infection and spend 14 days in a
5,000 50% 180 90% quarantine facility. This is subsequently revised on 29 March with a temporary
4,000 40% 160 80%
suspension of all types of visas for all foreign nationals till 30 April.
Total International Visitor Arrivals
(In thousands/ MMR)
3,000 30% 140 70%
Y-o-Y Growth Rate (%)
2,000 20% 120 60%
(in thousands)
1,000 10% 100 50% Measures implemented includes banning public gatherings, cancelling the Thingyan
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0% 80
60
40%
30%
traditional New Year water festival, banning festive activities, encouraging people to stay
-1,000 -10%
-2,000 -20%
40 20% home, shutting down public transportation networks, cinemas, as well as hotels and
-3,000 -30%
20 10% guesthouses. On 17 April, Yangon region government imposed 10pm to 4am curfew for
0 0%
-4,000 -40%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 all 45 Yangon Townships, which has been extended for another two months until 18 June.
Subsequently, on 18 April, seven townships with the highest number of COVID-19 cases
SEASONALITY (2018 - 2019) SOURCE MARKETS (2019) including South Okkalapa, Pabedan, Bahan, Mayangone, Insein, Shwe Pyi Thar and Hlaing
2018 2019 Tharyar, were imposed with lockdown measures.
500
450
400
China ` Change from Previous Month Change from Previous Year
31.3%
International Visitor Arri vals
350 38.8% Thailand
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020
(i n thousands)
300 Japan
250
200
Korea Visitor Arrivals - - - -
150 United States
100 3.5% Others Occupancy Rate -8.8 p.p. -21.3 p.p. -5.3 p.p. -23.9 p.p.
5.8%
50
0 6.5% 14.2% ADR -1.4% -8.3% -12.4% -15.1%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RevPAR -17.9% -52.9% -21.8% -58.8%
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (JAN-MAR) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (JAN-MAR)
Key Government Initiatives and Measures
400
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate
• Comprehensive Economic Stimulus Plan: Comprises of seven goals, ten strategies, 36
350
150 60.0% action plans and 76 actions that cover a range of emergency fiscal and monetary
Total International Visitor Arrivals
300 125 50.0% measures. K100 billion fund will be increased to K200-500 billion to assist garment
manufacturing, hotel and tourism sectors, as well as local small and medium-sized
(In thousands/MMR)
(in thousands)
250
100 40.0%
200
75 30.0%
enterprises. The interest rate on the loans will be 1% with a loan period of one year.
150
Eased deadlines for tax payments, and tax exemptions for affected Myanmar-owned
50 20.0%
100
businesses. One-year exemption on license fees for hotel and tour businesses.
50 25 10.0%
0
2018 Jan 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 Jan 2020 2020
0 0.0% • The Ministry of Labour, Immigration, and Population announced deferments of
2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
*2020
Feb Mar
data not available
Jan Feb Mar Feb Mar
Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar payment of social security contributions for employers and employees from 15 days
Source: Myanmar Ministry of Hotels & Tourism, HVS Research to three months after the end of each month.
9 • From April 2020, investors who wish to apply for permission to invest in
Myanmar will enjoy a 50% discount on application fees.
New Zealand FR
Total Cases Number of Death Recovered Cases
1,476 19 1,241
*As of 30 April 2020
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (2014-2019) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (2014-2019)
On 3 February, New Zealand has placed entry restrictions for visitors with recent travel
International Visitor Arrivals Y-o-Y Growth Rate
history to China. Those who can enter the country must self-isolate for 14 days. The first
4,500 14.0%
225
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate (%)
100%
COVID-19 case in New Zealand was reported on 28 February. On 14 March, all visitors
5Y CAGR: 6.4%
4,000
12.0% 200 95% must self-isolate for 14 days, except those arriving from the Pacific. Cruise ships are
Tota l International Visitor Arri vals
3,500 175 90%
banned from the country. Strict border measures for people travelling from New Zealand
Y-o-Y Growth Rate (%)
10.0%
3,000 85%
150
to the Pacific are put in place, including health assessment requirements. On 19 March,
(i n thousands)
8.0% 80%
2,500
(In NZD)
125
2,000 6.0% 100
75%
70%
all foreign visitors were denied entry into New Zealand. On 26 March, New Zealand
1,500
4.0%
75
65% entered a four-weeks lockdown. On 20 April, New Zealand extends the lockdown till 27
1,000
2.0%
50
25
60%
55%
April.
500
0 50%
0 0.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
New Zealand has taken some measures to curb the virus spread, and it include cancelling
of all indoor gatherings with more than 100 people from 19 March, the Auckland Council
SEASONALITY (2014 - MARCH 2020) SOURCE MARKETS (2019) has closed the pools, libraries, galleries and other community facilities for 14 days from
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20 March, and schools and other educational facilities across New Zealand were closed
600
Australia from 24 March. All non-essential businesses excluding essential businesses like
500
32.0% supermarkets, pharmacies and medical clinics were closed. Travel will be severely limited
Total International Arrivals
China
400 39.6%
and healthcare services will be re-prioritised. On 27 April, New Zealand has eased its
(in thousands)
United States of America
300
200
United Kingdom social distancing measures.
Germany
100
2.5% 6.0% Change from Previous Month Change from Same Time Last Year
0 Others
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 9.5% 10.5%
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020
Visitor Arrivals - - - -
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (JAN-MAR) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (JAN-MAR)
Occupancy Rate 6.3 p.p. -31.0 p.p. -4.6 p.p. -34.6 p.p.
450
250
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate
100% ADR 11.3% -11.7% -4.8% -9.6%
400
RevPAR 20.3% -44.3% -9.8% -45.3%
Tota l International Visitor Arri vals
350 200 80%
300
Key Government Initiatives and Measures
(i n thousands)
250 150 60%
(In NZD)
200
150
100 40% • NZD12 Billion Stimulus Package: NZD12 billion allocated includes NZD8 billion for
100 50 20%
wage and income support, NZD2.8 billion in business tax changes to free up cash flow,
50 NZD500 million boost for health services, and an initial NZD600 million support
0
2018 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2019 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar
0
2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
0%
package for the aviation sector would be followed up with separate measures for Air
*Feb and Mar 2020 data not available Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar
New Zealand
Source: New Zealand Government, HVS Research
10Philippines FR
Total Cases Number of Death Recovered Cases
8,488 568 1,043
*As of 30 April 2020
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (2014-2019) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (2014-2019)
On 3 February, temporary travel ban was placed for all travellers coming from China. This
International Visitor Arrivals Y-o-Y Growth Rate Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate
is followed by an entry ban for foreign visitors who come from countries with local
9 18% 6,000 100% transmissions of the virus on 12 March. On 22 March, the government issued temporary
8 5Y CAGR: 11.3% 16% 5,500 95%
travel ban on foreigners of all nationalities entering the Philippines.
Total International Visitor Arri vals
5,000
90%
7 14% 4,500
Y-o-Y Growth Rate (%)
85%
6 12% 4,000
On 15
Source: National
80% and
Statistical 17 March,
Coordination the ofmetro
Board , Department Manila
Tourism,Philstar, and Luzon were placed under community
HVS Research
(i n mi llions)
3,500
(In PHP)
5 10% 3,000
2,500
75% quarantine, respectively. This includes one-month of school, malls and establishment
4 8% 70%
3 6%
2,000
65%
closures, exempting shops offering essential services like groceries, banks and
1,500
2 4% 1,000
Arrivals
60% pharmacies. Public transportation has been suspended. On 7 April, the government
1 2%
500
0
55%
STR
50%
extended the Luzon lockdown by half a month to 30 April. Subsequently, on 24 April, the
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 government has announced that lockdown in Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Calabarzon,
ADR
and several provinces and islands in Luzon will be extended until 15 May.
SEASONALITY (2014 - MARCH 2020) SOURCE MARKETS (2019)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Change from Previous Month Change from Previous Year
900
800
24.1%
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020
Korea
Total International Arrivals
700 29.7%
600 China Visitor Arrivals - - - -
(in thousands)
USA
500
400 Japan
Occupancy Rate -6.1 p.p. -24.1 p.p. -14.7 p.p. -35.8 p.p.
300
200 4.0% 21.1%
Taiwan ADR -7.3% -16.7% -3.8% -17.3%
Others
100 8.3%
RevPAR -15.9% -50.5% -22.9% -58.9%
0 12.9%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Key Government Initiatives and Measures
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (JAN-MAR) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (JAN-MAR) • PHP27.1 Billion Initial Spending Plan: PHP3.1 billion to better equip Department of
800
6,400
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate
80.0%
Health in containing the spread of COVID-19. PHP14 billion is allocated to support the
700
5,600 70.0% tourism industry. Provide economic relief and recovery efforts for infected people as
Total International Visitor Arrivals
600
4,800 60.0% well as affected businesses. This includes wage subsidy, unemployment benefits,
loans with zero interest to farmers, support micro-businesses and courses for
(in thousands)
500 4,000 50.0%
(In PHP)
400
300
3,200
2,400
40.0%
30.0%
displaced workers to acquire new skills.
•
200 1,600 20.0%
100 800 10.0%
PHP275 Billion: PHP200 billion will be in the form of between PHP5,000 to 8,000
0 0 0.0% cash grants for 18 million low-income households that lost their source of income due
2018 Jan 2018
Feb
2018
Mar
2019
Jan
2019
Feb
2019
Mar
2020 Jan 2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2018
Jan
2018
Feb
2018
Mar
2019
Jan
2019
Feb
2019
Mar
2020
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar to COVID-19.
*2020 data not available
Source: Philippines Department of Tourism, HVS Research
11Singapore FR
Total Cases Number of Death Recovered Cases
16,169 14 1,188
*As of 30 April 2020
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (2014-2019) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (2014-2019)
On 31 January, Singapore bar visitors of any nationality with recent travel history to
International Visitor Arrivals Y-o-Y Growth Rate Average Daily Rate Revenue per Available Room Occupancy Rate
mainland China. From 23 March, all short-term visitors from any countries were not
25 10% 250 100%
allowed entry or to transit through Singapore. Singapore has also ceased port calls for all
5Y CAGR: 4.8%
cruise vessels. In addition, an MCO implemented by Singapore’s closest neighbour,
Tota l International Visitor Arri vals
8%
20 200 95%
Malaysia, to ban all Malaysians travelling abroad kicked in on 18 March.
Y-o-Y Growth Rate (%)
6%
(i n mi llions)
15 150 90%
4%
Due to its initial success in containing the virus, Singapore had been able to take a less
(In SGD)
2%
10 100 85% draconian approach. However, as local cases spike, the government introduced circuit
5
0%
50 80%
breaker measures between 7 April to 4 May, which have been extended to 1 June.
-2%
Measures include one-metre social distancing, closure of workplace premises except for
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-4% 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
75% essential services, full home-based learning for schools, closure of recreation venues,
attractions and places of worship.
SEASONALITY (2014 - MARCH 2020) SOURCE MARKETS (2019) Change from Previous Month Change from Previous Year
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020
China
2,000 45.0% Visitor Arrivals -56.6% -67.2% -51.2% -84.7%
Total International Arrivals
1,750
Indonesia
1,500
Occupancy Rate -32.1 p.p. -10.4 p.p. -37.5 p.p. -44.0 p.p.
(in thousands)
1,250
19.0% India
1,000
750 Malaysia
ADR -1.1% -25.1% 2.1% -20.3%
6.0%
500
Australia RevPAR -39.7% -40.5% -41.5% -61.9%
250
0 6.4% 16.3%
Key Government Initiatives and Measures
7.4% Others
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
• SGD83.6 Billion Budget for 2020: SGD4 billion allocated to assist workers and
companies amid COVID-19, and deferring the goods and services tax (GST) hike until
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (JAN-MAR) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (JAN-MAR) after 2021.
2,000 Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate
1,800 250.0 100.0% • SGD48 Billion Resilience Budget: A property tax rebate of up to 100% for non-
Total International Visitor Arrivals
1,600
200.0 80.0%
residential properties, rental waivers, deferment of income tax payment for three
1,400
months, SGD48 million for self-employed persons (SEP) training support scheme, co-
(in thousands)
1,200
150.0 60.0%
fund wage costs for up to 8,000 traineeships in 2020, flexibility on fees and loans,
(In SGD)
1,000
800
100.0 40.0%
more funding for community, cash grant of SGD800 a month for three months for
600
400
low- to middle-income citizens who became unemployed due to COVID-19 and SGD90
200
50.0 20.0%
million for tourism recovery.
0 0.0 0.0%
2018
Jan
2018
Feb
2018
Mar
2019
Jan
2019
Feb
2019
Mar
2020
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2018
Jan
2018
Feb
2018
Mar
2019
Jan
2019
Feb
2019
Mar
2020
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
• SGD5.1 Billion Solidarity Budget, SGD3.8 billion for Extension: SGD600 solidarity
Source: Singapore Tourism Board, HVS Research payment to all Singaporeans aged 21 and above in 2020, 75% wage support in
12 April and May 2020 (differentiated by sector for remaining months),
and three quarterly payouts of SGD3,000 each for eligible SEPs.Vietnam FR
Total Cases Number of Death Recovered Cases
270 0 222
*As of 30 April 2020
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (2014-2019) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (2014-2019)
On 1 February, Vietnam halts all flights to and from mainland China and stop issuing visas
International Visitor Arrivals Y-o-Y Growth Rate
Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate
for foreign visitors with travel history to China in the past two weeks. This is followed by a
20 40%
3,200 100%
suspended entry for all foreign nationals on 22 March. All passenger flights to Vietnam on
68.9%
2,848,864
5Y CAGR: 18.0%
18 35% 3,000 95% all airlines are also suspended from 1 to 15 April.
15 30%
2,800 90%
Total International Visitor Arrivals
2,600
(In thousands/VND)
85%
Apart from temporarily isolating several locations that are deemed high-risk or visited by
Y-o-Y Growth Rate (%)
13 25%
2,400
80%
(i n millions)
10 20% 2,200
2,000
75% travellers with confirmed cases of the virus, tourism sites across the country are also
8 15%
5 10%
1,800
70%
65%
setting aside closure days to disinfect their premises. Until 15 April, Ha Long Bay, Bai Tu
3 5%
1,600
1,400 60% Long Bay, Cat Ba Island, Ho Chi Minh City, Ninh Binh, Ly Son Island, Cham Islands, Phong
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0% 1,200 55% Nha, Perfume Pagoda, Hue Citadel, My Son Sanctuary, and Con Dao will not be receiving
1,000 50%
-3 -5%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 any new visitors. A number of festivals and events in Vietnam have also been cancelled or
postponed to avoid public gatherings. Other key actions by the government includes the
SEASONALITY (2014 - MARCH 2020) SOURCE MARKETS (2019) temporary closure of public schools across 63 provinces, designation of four hospitals to
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 handle potential cases, set up of 30 testing centres and 45 quick response medical teams
2,000 to assist hospitals nationwide. On 20 April, the country gradually ease COVID-19 control
Total International Arrivals
China
1,750
1,500
29.4% 32.2%
South Korea measures as cases plateau.
(in thousands)
1,250
1,000
Japan
Change from Previous Month Change from Previous Year
Taiwan
750
500 4.1%
USA Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020
5.1% Others
250
0 5.3% 23.8%
Visitor Arrivals -38.6% -62.3% -20.8% -65.7%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Occupancy Rate -17.3 p.p. -24.7 p.p. -17.1 p.p. -42.8 p.p.
ADR -11.0% -10.3% -10.1% -11.0%
INTERNATIONAL VISITOR ARRIVALS (JAN-MAR) HOTEL MARKET PERFORMANCE (JAN-MAR)
RevPAR -36.1% -60.6% -35.2% -72.2%
2,000 Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy Rate
1,800
3,200 80.0% Key Government Initiatives and Measures
2,800
Total International Visitor Arrivals
• VND27 Trillion: Tax breaks, delaying tax payments by five months, a reduction in land
1,600 70.0%
1,400 2,400 60.0%
(In thousands/VND)
lease fee and acceleration of state spending on infrastructure projects.
(in thousands)
1,200
2,000 50.0%
1,000
1,600 40.0%
800
600
1,200 30.0% • From February, the central bank, State Bank of Vietnam (SVB), has already cut interest
400 800 20.0% rates along with commercial banks in the country. In addition, Vietnam commercial
200
0
400 10.0% banks pledged to offer VND 285 trillion preferential credit package to affected
2018
Jan
2018
Feb
2018
Mar
2019
Jan
2019
Feb
2019
Mar
2020
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
0
2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
0.0%
businesses.
Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar
Source: Vietnam National Administration of Tourism, HVS Research • On 10 April, the government approved VND62 trillion financial support package
13 for poor people and businesses affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, over
three months until June.HVS.COM About HVS About the Authors
HVS, the world’s leading consulting and services organization
focused on the hotel, mixed-use, shared ownership, gaming, Peggy Lee is an Analyst with HVS
and leisure industries, celebrated its 40th anniversary this Singapore She graduated from
Singapore Institute of Technology
year. Established in 1980, the company have performed
with a Bachelor of Degree in
more than 60,000 assignments for hotel and real estate Hospitality Business. Since joining,
owners, operators, and developers worldwide. HVS principals she has been engaged in numerous
are regarded as the leading experts in their respective market research, feasibility studies
and valuations in the Asia Pacific
regions of the globe. Through a network of more than 50
region that include Malaysia, Maldives
offices and more than 300 professionals, HVS provides an and Singapore. peggy.lee@hvs.com
unparalleled range of complementary services for the
hospitality industry. Chariss Kok Xin is a Manager with
HVS.com HVS Singapore. She graduated from
Glion Institute of Higher Education
with a Bachelor of Arts in Hospitality
Superior Results through Unrivalled Hospitality Real Estate Finance and Revenue
Intelligence. Everywhere. Management. Since joining, she has
been engaged in numerous market
research, feasibility studies and
HVS ASIA PACIFIC is represented by nine offices in Singapore, valuations in the Asia Pacific region
Bangalore, Bangkok, Beijing, Hong Kong, Mumbai, New Delhi, that include Indonesia, Malaysia,
Shanghai and Shenzhen. HVS publishes a wide range of Maldives, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Seychelles and
leading research reports, articles and surveys, which can be Singapore. xkok@hvs.com
downloaded from our online library (HVS.com/Library).
Hok Yean Chee is the Regional
President of HVS Asia Pacific. She has
HVS SINGAPORE has worked on a broad array of projects over 30 years of experience in more
that include research studies, valuations, feasibility studies, than 30 markets across 23 countries
operator search and management contract negotiation, in Asia Pacific, providing real estate
investment advisory services for a
testimony and litigation support services, asset management, wide spectrum of property assets.
and investment advisory for hotels, resorts, serviced Her forte lies in providing investment
residences, branded residences, golf courses, country clubs, advisory on hotels and serviced
marinas and cruise terminals. apartments, including brokerage,
strategic analyses, operator search, market feasibility
studies, valuations and litigation support. hychee@hvs.com
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