Covid Recovery Pulse - ICICI Direct
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September 3, 2021
Covid Recovery Pulse
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research MOMENTUM PICKAuto retail picking up pace…
Daily vehicle registration trend
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1,08,000 Daily Vahan registrations have averaged at ~63,200 units i.e. 79% of pre-Covid levels in August 2021
99,000
90,000 85,197 84,723
81,000 73,665 76,219
69,185 71,091 Daily Vahan registrations in August 2021 have averaged
(average daily units)
72,000 65,850 63,202 60400 at ~63,200 units i.e. 79% of pre-Covid levels and is
62,624
63,000 55,285 54,207 55,599 down ~11% on an MoM basis. The start to September
54,000 2021 is soft with average reading at ~60,400 units,
45,000 broadly in line with the sluggish start to the month. With
36,000 Covid abating pan-India, registrations are expected to
24,428
27,000 pick up pace but will be constrained by lower vehicle
18,000 production given the global chip shortage, especially in
9,000 th e PV space.
0 (Note– Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana
are non Vahan states. They combined form ~15% of
Jun-21
May-21
Nov-20
Oct-20
Aug-20
Aug-21
Jul-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Sep-20
Sep-21
Dec-20
Feb-21
Jan-21
MTD
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
auto volumes and ~20% of tractor volumes)
E- Way bill generation
E-Way bill generation for August 2021 began on a strong note, reaching 4.6
crore. If we compare this to the average bill generation in the months prior to
Covid-19 (October 2019-February 2020), it has reached ~115% levels of the
average 5.5 crore bills. E-Way bill generation for January, February, March,
April, May, June and July hovered at 114%, 116%, 129%, 107%, 73%, 100%
an d 117% levels, respectively.
2All-round improvement in core sector demand…
FA STag volume Monthly average peak power demand in 2019 & 2020
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NPCI data reveals that FASTag driven monthly vehicle volumes for Average peak power demand for August grew sharply by 16.18% to 184.4
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
August, 2021 at various toll plazas (201.2 million) were up ~4.6% MoM GW vs. 158.7 GW in the same period last year. There has been a marginal
an d up ~4% from pre-second wave level attained in March, 2021. increase of 3% on an MoM basis. Peak power demand during the period was
registered on August 13 at 196.5 GW.
P etrol & LPG demand Diesel demand
4 10 Diesel
8
3
MMT
6
MMT
2
4
1 2
Diesel demand fell 9.3% MoM in August for PSU OMCs .
Petrol demand increased 2.5% MoM in August whereas LPG demand de-grew 1.7%
MoM in the same period for PSU OMCs. 0
0 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21
May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21
Diesel
Petrol LPG
3GST collections make strong comeback in July
GST collections IIP Trend
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GST collections
140000
120000
116393
100000
102709
80000
92849
123902
119847
115174
113865
113143
32172 141384
110818
105361
104963
105155
103491
103184
60000
102083
100289
99939
98202
97590
95379
95480
91916
90917
87422
86449
40000
62151
20000
0
Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
FY19 FY20 FY21
GST collections made a strong comeback in July and came in at | 1.16 During May 2021, IIP data saw a jump of 28.6%, led by 33.5% & 23.3% jump
lakh crore. GST collections grew 33% YoY but the base was low in manufacturing & mining, respectively. However, electricity data declined to
7.5%. The exceptional rise was largely due to a lower base in the previous
year led by nationwide lockdown (in April 2021, no data is available on
account of Covid-19).
4MOMENTUM PICK
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
4Disclaimer
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