DESTINATION EUROPE? THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL MIGRATION
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KEY FINDINGS
DESTINATION EUROPE?
THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL MIGRATION
The age of migration populations in Italy and Portugal, countries migration and to analyse the migration
set to reach a median age of more than potentials in different regions of the world.
Migration is a formative phenomenon of 50 years by 2030. At that time, the global This study examines these elements based
our time: According to the United Nations, average will then be around 33 years. For on various contributing factors and draws
in 2017, around 258 million people lived in the foreseeable future, global demographic conclusions as to how migration to the EU
another country as international migrants. trends will thus ensure that the demand for could develop over the coming years.
This figure also includes the approximately immigrants will increase in the richer part of
29 million people who have fled conflicts the world, i.e. not only in the EU, while the
or applied for asylum in other countries. migration potential from the poorer part will How migration arises
However, the majority of international increase.
migrants move to work in a different country. Whether people decide to migrate depends
These movements take place all over the The so-called refugee crisis has reinforced on many factors which may influence and
world and reflect the social, political and existing reservations and resentments reinforce each other. At the heart of the
economic changes within the scope of towards migration, especially towards asylum decision is a fundamental desire to change
globalisation. From the perspective of the seekers and refugees. Within European one's life, the search for freedom, security or
European Union, migration is of particular populations, and at a political level, these a better income. Some people migrate out of
importance for two reasons: issues are now more polarised than they pure necessity or are fleeing from war, others
were ten years ago. Immigration, whether because they expect a higher quality of life
Some Member States are already labour market-oriented or characterised by elsewhere. Most migrate only over short
dependent on immigration to help cushion flight, is therefore questioned in general. distances, often within their own country or
the ageing of their populations, keep the The EU Member States hold fundamentally into neighbouring states. It is only a fraction
economy going and continue to finance social different positions in this difficult situation, of migrants who move to another world
welfare systems. This number will increase so neither a common migration nor asylum region, such as Europe.
in the future and, ultimately, all EU Member policy is foreseeable at present. States only
States will inevitably become immigration agree to curb irregular migration, to extend
countries. By 2030, the proportion of the controls, and to varying degrees they rely on
working age population in the EU as a whole, sealing Europe's borders.
i.e. people between the ages of 20 and 64, is
projected to shrink by around seven percent. In view of the resistance to and reservations
In absolute figures, for Germany this means regarding migration, the question arises:
a drop of five million in this age group in What is the future for migration in the EU? In
comparison with 2015. Even more severely order to moderate the public debate, it is first
affected by the ageing process will be the necessary to obtain a clear idea of current
Berlin-Institut 1the 20-39 age group, who make up the legal basis. It is rarely possible to make a
Key factors majority of migrants. However, the likelihood clear distinction between those who leave
of migration across national borders only their home for economic, political or other
1 Demographic factors increases from a per capita gross domestic reasons.
product of 2,000 US dollars per year,
Migration is stimulated by a rapidly growing adjusted for purchasing power, a figure
population and a large number of people which the world's poorest countries are 6 Environmental factors
of working age for whom jobs cannot be nowhere near reaching. Until people are able
created. High population growth usually to travel further distances and also reach Global environmental changes have a
goes hand in hand with growing competition Europe, economic strength in the range of detrimental effect on living conditions in
for food and drinking water, housing space, 3,000 to 10,000 US dollars is necessary. many parts of the world. These changes
education and health services. Poor supply The politically motivated attempt to combat include the drying up of water sources, the
may give rise to social conflicts that intensify root causes of forced migration through erosion of farmland, deforestation, the loss
the wish to migrate. By 2030 and well development, with the aim of reducing of biodiversity and the consequences of
beyond then, global population growth will migration, is therefore hardly likely to work. climate change. Even today, these changes
be increasingly concentrated in sub-Saharan This is because development and better are leading to supply crises and to people
Africa and parts of the MENA region. For income opportunities will initially enable having to leave their places of origin.
example, it is projected that Nigeria, the most more people to organise and finance a Environmental damage may exacerbate
populous country in Africa, will reach the migration. other causes of migration, for example by
population size of the current EU between fuelling distribution conflicts or destabilising
2070 and 2075. governments. As a rule, it is the already
4 Networks and diaspora marginalised sections of the population
who leave their homes. However, a lack
2 Education Networks between migrants and their of other opportunities means that these
friends and families in their countries of environmental migrants often remain in their
The better the level of education, the more origin promote further migration along these own countries.
likely it is that people are able to successfully channels. It is also in the interests of the
build a new life elsewhere. It tends to be the countries of origin, which they therefore
better educated who decide to migrate and actively support because remittances from 7 Migration policy
are able to organise this. Only indirectly, the diaspora represent an essential source of
and in the longer term, does education have finance. Migration policy influences how many people
the effect of curbing migration: For women with which socio-economic characteristics
in particular, it is the most important factor are able to migrate. Since the “refugee crisis”
for falling birth rates. It also improves the 5 Conflicts and political factors of 2015 at the latest, it has been the goal of
prospects of each individual person to make the EU to limit (irregular) migration as much
a livelihood in their own home country. The number of violent conflicts worldwide as possible. Since then, the number of people
has reached its highest level since 1975. seeking protection has fallen significantly. As
These do not just include conflicts between there is simultaneously no EU-wide concept
3 Economic factors states, but also civil wars or terror attacks. for orderly and regular migration from
At first, people look for safe places in countries outside the EU, the policy is likely
People also migrate along a prosperity gap. the surrounding regions of the country, to ensure that, for the time being, migration
This is enormous between the industrialised where they can wait before returning. in the near future does not come close to
nations and the less developed regions of But when conflicts drag on for years, 2015 and 2016 levels.
the world. In addition, there is a lack of jobs internally displaced persons also migrate
there to provide the younger generation across national borders. Due to a lack
with employment. This factor encourages of regular migration opportunities, this
the wish for migration, especially among migration usually takes place without a
2 Destination Europe?Main destinations within the region of origin
Wish and reality When people relocate, they usually only do so over short distances. Most of them remain in their own country,
with significantly fewer crossing a border and rarely leaving their own greater region. Internationally, typical
Surveys conducted by the Gallup market and migration patterns can be seen, which often have historical reasons and are reinforced by exchange with
compatriots who have already emigrated. As can be seen from the graphic, the vast majority of migrants from
opinion research institute show that around the post-Soviet states or sub-Saharan Africa remain within their regions. The largest cross-regional immigrant
750 million people worldwide can imagine groups include Latin Americans in the United States and people from South Asia in the MENA region. Many
moving to another country if they have Indian migrant workers live in the United Arab Emirates (3.3 million) or Saudi Arabia (2.3 million).
the opportunity – that is 15 percent of the
world's adult population. At 33 percent, the
wish to migrate is greatest in sub-Saharan
Africa. In Latin America and the Caribbean, state
s
oviet 40 50 0 10 20
where the wish has risen the most since st-S 0 EU
Po 0 3 30 –2
2010, the figure is 27 percent, in the MENA 2 40 8
region 24 percent. But even within the EU, 10 50
0
21 percent are considering emigrating. In
60
contrast, in the various regions of Asia, the
50
figure is only 7 to 8 percent. Globally, 21 per
70
30 erica
40
cent of potential migrants – or 158 million
m
80
th A
people – say the USA is their desired
0
Nor
destination. Germany, France and the United
10
20
Sub-S
Kingdom would be attractive for at least 42,
36 and 34 million people respectively.
aharan Africa
20
10
30
0
Even if these figures sound alarming to
some, they reflect wishes but not reality: Not
Latin Amer
40
40
even ten percent of those who can imagine
30
migrating are actually planning to do within
0
ica an
the next twelve months. The majority of
10
20 aribbe
these people are men, young adults, from
dC
urban environments and, usually, with
20
10 an
at least a level of secondary education.
30
05
Ultimately, less than half a percent of the
0
world's adult population, that is around
M 0
A
40 a
4
EN
st 3
23 million people, are taking concrete steps
E
an 0 50
dS
to emigrate, such as obtaining money or visas ou 20
the 60
for migration. ast 10 0
Asi 0 0 7
a 40 10
30 20
South Asia
International migrants from
International migrants in
International migrants by selected regions of origin and destination (data indicates international migrant stock
at mid-year, reflecting past migrations), in millions, 2017
(Source: UN DESA18)
Berlin-Institut 3Middle East and North Africa (MENA) South Asia
Regional differences
Population (2020): 548.2 million Population (2020): 1.9 billion
The most important migration factors differ Migrants within/outside own region: Migrants within/outside own region:
across world regions and, within each 16.9/13.1 million 9.1/29.3 million
region, from country to country. Accordingly, Migrants in the EU-28: 9.3 million Migrants in the EU-28: 3.3 million
the migration potential for the EU varies
according to region. The MENA region with its 548 million Only a small proportion of the people in
inhabitants is home to the second youngest South Asia have aspirations to migrate. In
population in the world. It is expected to view of the region's 1.9 billion inhabitants
Sub-Saharan Africa grow by a further 13 percent until 2030. and sustained high population growth in
Educational levels have risen in the recent countries such as Pakistan and Afghanistan,
Population (2020): 1.1 billion past, fertility rates have fallen – a good coupled with high unemployment, this
Migrants within/outside own region: prerequisite for a demographic dividend, a does nevertheless result in considerable
18.8/8.3 million development boost owing to a favourable age potential for migration, although this extends
Migrants in the EU-28: 4.0 million structure. But a lack of prospects for young predominantly to neighbouring countries.
job-seekers and ongoing conflicts in the Refugee migration from Afghanistan is also
Sub-Saharan Africa has by far the highest region are the main reasons for the growing likely to concentrate on Pakistan and Iran.
population growth in the world and the wish to migrate, which is predominantly to In 2017, 3.3 million people from South Asia
youngest population. Currently 1.1 billion countries in the region itself. MENA is home lived in the EU. Most of them come from
people live there and this figure is expected to around 7 percent of the world's population, India, the second most populous country
to almost double by 2050, with the greatest but about 18 percent of all migrants in the world, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Its
demographic pressure in West and Central worldwide. Europe is the main destination for former colonial ties make the United Kingdom
Africa. Most inhabitants of the region do long-range migration, with France, Germany, the most important destination country in
not have the means and opportunities to Belgium and the Netherlands the countries the EU with almost two million inhabitants
migrate over longer distances to Europe. The with the strongest migration networks. In born in South Asia. Due to rising levels of
proportion of people in the EU who were 2017, around 9.3 million immigrants from the education in the growing middle classes,
born in Africa is less than one percent. They MENA region lived in the EU, primarily from particularly in India, and an oversupply
live mainly in countries with a colonial past, Turkey (2.7 million), Morocco (2.5 million) of labour, the migration of skilled workers
France, the UK, Belgium and Portugal. The and Algeria (1.6 million). Conflicts such as is likely to continue. As skilled migrants
migration potential from sub-Saharan Africa those in Libya and Yemen and the tense from the region become more and more in
is expected to increase significantly due to political situation in populous countries demand on the international labour market,
strong population growth, because many such as Egypt and Turkey can trigger major, the question arises as to how many of them
of the countries are developing in terms of albeit unpredictable, migration movements. the EU can attract. So far, however, the trend
education and prosperity, but also due to In addition, MENA is the hottest and driest amongst these people has been to move to
ongoing conflict and climate change, which region in the world and climate change the USA and Canada.
is likely to worsen the supply situation in will significantly exacerbate the already
many places. The long-term income disparity existing shortage of drinking water. Even if
between sub-Saharan Africa and the EU, the environmental changes in themselves do not
relative proximity across the Mediterranean trigger large-scale migration, they increase
and the existing diaspora in Europe the likelihood of conflicts in unstable political
encourage migration. situations.
4 Destination Europe?East and Southeast Asia Post-Soviet states Latin America and Caribbean
Population (2020): 2.3 billion Population (2020): 290.2 million Population (2020): 663.5 million
Migrants within/outside own region: Migrants within/outside own region: Migrants within/outside own region:
14.2/21.5 million 22.0/7.6 million 6.0/31.6 million
Migrants in the EU-28: 3.0 million Migrants in the EU-28: 5.5 million Migrants in the EU-28: 4.4 million
There are a number of reasons why, by In the republics of the former Soviet Union, The USA is by far the most important
international standards, there is a low desire the proportion of people with migration destination country for migrants from Latin
for migration within East and Southeast Asia: aspirations remains constant at around America and the Caribbean. But the EU, and
In many places, economic growth and higher 15 per cent and thus is relatively low in particularly Spain, Portugal and Italy, are also
education have created new prospects for comparison with other regions. Low birth attractive destinations for migrants. The two
people. Population growth in the region is rates mean that the population of the regions are linked by common languages,
slowly coming to a halt and is likely to begin region is no longer growing, it is already historical ties and a large diaspora. The
shrinking from 2035 onwards. In Japan, ageing strongly in many places. Migrants demographic pressure in Latin America
China and South Korea, there are no longer primarily move to look for employment and is only slight because the population
enough children being born to replace those predominantly within their own region. grows very little and is already ageing in
people retiring. These countries themselves This is mainly due to a common language, many places. The proportion of people
will need immigration in the medium term. established networks and a good migration aged between 20 and 39, the age group
Migration takes place largely within the infrastructure. It is unlikely that this will characteristic of migration, will begin to
region, with North America and Australia change fundamentally in the future. Only fall by 2030. The comparatively high desire
high on the list of migration destinations. if the political and economic situation in to migrate, however, is based on relatively
Only then does Europe follow, with three individual countries should deteriorate good educational levels combined with
million people from East and Southeast Asia significantly could the EU become a more poor labour market conditions and income
living there, one million of them from China. important migration destination for opportunities. Crises and conflicts such as
Further immigration is expected, especially potential migrants. In Russia, for example, those in Nicaragua or Venezuela are currently
from China, even if the population there is no the proportion of the population wishing to increasing the migratory pressure. As the
longer growing, as well as from Indonesia, migrate has recently grown significantly. USA is increasingly sealing its southern
Vietnam and the Philippines, where border, some of those willing to migrate could
population growth is expected to continue look to Europe as their new destination.
until around 2050.
“Destination Europe? The Future of Global Migration” is part of the project Berlin Institute for Population
“Zuwanderer von morgen” (migrants of tomorrow), funded by Stiftung Mercator. and Development
The full version can be found at: https://bit.ly/2RskpOo
funded by
Berlin-Institut 5You can also read
