Draft Housing Strategy - Under One Roof - District of Thunder Bay Draft Housing Strategy Commissioned by: The District of Thunder Bay Social ...

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Draft Housing Strategy - Under One Roof

                          District of Thunder Bay
                          Draft Housing Strategy

                          Commissioned by:

                          The District of Thunder Bay
                          Social Services
                          Administration Board

                           Toni Farley & Associates
                           November 2010
DRAFT HOUSING STRATEGY – UNDER ONE ROOF

                                                  TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................................3
            A NEW VISION ................................................................................................................14

1.0 WHY A HOUSING STRATEGY ...............................................................................................15
     1.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................15
     1.2 PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................15
          1.2.1 STUDY FORMAT ......................................................................................................18

2.0 PART I – THE CONTEXT ......................................................................................................18
     2.1 DYNAMICS OF HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND ......................................................18
     2.2 GLOBAL ECONOMY AND FOREST PRODUCTS ...........................................................19
     2.3 ECONOMIC FORECAST DISTICT OF THUNDER BAY ..................................................20
     2.4 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN THE DISTRICT ..................................................................21
     2.5 PROVINCIAL POLICY FRAMEWORK..............................................................................22
     2.6 FISCAL FRAMEWORK .....................................................................................................23

3.0 THE HOUSING CONTINUUM ................................................................................................25
     3.1 THE HOUSING SYSTEM: PARTNERS AND ROLES .....................................................26

4.O PART II – THE HOUSING STRATEGY .................................................................................30
     4.1 NEEDS, BARRIERS AND SOLUTIONS ..........................................................................30
     4.2 SOCIAL HOUSING ...........................................................................................................31
     4.3 PROPOSED DISTRICT MODEL TO ACCESS HOUSING AND
           SUPPORT SERVICES ......................................................................................................46
     4.4 HOMELESSNESS.............................................................................................................49
     4.5 HOUSING FOR ABORIGINAL PEOPLE (NON-RESERVE)............................................55
     4.6 SUPPORTIVE HOUSING .................................................................................................62
     4.7 PRIVATE MARKET HOUSIING ........................................................................................69
     4.8 SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................75

APPENDIX 1: BEGINNING TO FILL THE GAPS – FIVE YEAR HOUSING TARGETS .............77
APPENDIX 2: LIST OF STAKEHOLDERS ..................................................................................79

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DRAFT HOUSING STRATEGY – UNDER ONE ROOF

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Housing is a basic need and critical to the well-being of all residents in the District of
Thunder Bay. It has been defined as a “system of assets, financing, services, supports,
policies and programs”1 that enables the creation and maintenance of healthy and
sustainable communities; and that provides stability, security and improved quality of life
for individuals and families both owners and renters. A secure and stable living
environment provides all residents with the opportunity to prosper and function to their
maximum potential. Conversely, housing insecurity increases relocation rates, can lead
to family conflict and breakdown, and increase the use of health and social services.2

A well functioning housing system is an investment in people. It supports them as they
experience changes due to crisis, family size, lifestyle, finances and physical or mental
ability, and as they age. Investing in people’s diverse housing needs has tangible
benefits. There is strong evidence to suggest that cost savings will accrue in health,
education, criminal justice and social services while at the same time contributing to the
economic prosperity of communities. Indeed, in some communities in the District of
Thunder Bay, the ability to meet the housing needs of retirees (seniors with good
pension incomes) may make the difference between communities failing or maintaining
their economic viability.

The housing system in the District of Thunder Bay works quite well for a significant
number of households offering choice and affordability. Unfortunately, it does not work
well enough for those homeless individuals with substance abuse issues who call a jail
cell home. It does not work well enough for seniors in rural communities and many other
persons who need access to supportive housing. Nor does it work well enough for
Aboriginal people.

With a population that is declining and aging, and an economic base which at best is in
transition, the District will be challenged in its ability to provide housing opportunities for
all of its residents.

This strategy promotes a comprehensive systemic response focused on partnerships to
address the identified housing needs of people living in the District. It has been designed
to assist not only The District of Thunder Bay Social Services Administration Board, but
all of the community partners involved in the provision of public, private and not for profit
housing.

The Housing Strategy is prepared in two separate parts. Part I is entitled, Housing
Analysis Report – Setting the Scene. It provides a review of the variables that impact the
supply and demand for all housing across the housing continuum for the District of
Thunder Bay. The trends revealed through the analysis of the data were used to inform
the housing strategy.

1
 City of Ottawa Housing Strategy 2007 - 2012
2
 Social Determinants of Health: Housing Fact Sheet, Southern Public Health Unit Network and West
Moreton Public Health Unit, Australia

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Part II is this report, the Housing Strategy – Under One Roof. It addresses the needs
and gaps identified through broad based community consultations.

The culmination of community consultations identified a number of common themes.
These are:

     Affordable senior supportive housing for those that can no longer remain in their
      own homes – seniors supportive housing to be located in the communities where
      they currently reside

     In-home support services so that seniors can maintain independence longer and
      remain in their local community

     Supportive housing for the full range of persons who require assistance to live as
      independently as they are able to within the community (e.g., physically disabled,
      those with developmental/intellectual or mental health issues those with fetal
      alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD), those involved with the criminal justice system,
      etc.)

     Improved access to housing and support services

     Process for information sharing and collaboration between community agencies

     Systems navigator – to link people to supports required

     Housing that is barrier free and accessible

      Rent-geared-to-income assistance

      Funding to retrofit existing housing including private market housing

      Flexible housing programs to provide greater housing choices

      Full range of affordable housing for Aboriginal people from transitional to
       permanent housing with and without supports that is culturally appropriate and
       under Aboriginal control

      Anti-discrimination strategy

      Full range of housing and services for the homeless from harm reduction housing
       to permanent rent-geared-to-income housing with and without supports

      Streamlined service delivery of DSSAB programs

      Sustainability of the existing social housing stock

These common themes have been translated into three strategic directions, 11 goals
and 72 recommended actions to implement the strategy.

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The three strategic directions are:

Strategic Direction 1       Ensuring an appropriate supply of affordable and
                            subsidized housing to meet the needs of existing and
                            future residents in the District

Strategic Direction 2       Doing what we do better – DSSAB user friendly service
                            delivery

Strategic Direction 3       Moving toward an integrated and co-ordinated one-
                            window model to accessing housing and support services

The 11 goals with their accompanying recommended actions are as follows:

Goal 1: To balance the supply and demand for subsidized housing

Recommended Action 1.1        Adopt a target to re-designate 25 per cent of the senior one
                              bedroom units (approximately 400 units) to non-senior one
                              bedroom units over the next five years.
                              Prior to implementation, an evaluation be undertaken to
                              determine what buildings in which locals are best suited to
                              change. The evaluation is to include an analysis of the
                              effect of integrating non-seniors into seniors’ buildings
                              and/or changing the target group for specific buildings. The
                              impact analysis to include such factors as costs, resources
                              required to address seniors’ security issues and wait times.

Recommended Action 1.2        Use the rent supplement program to acquire units in private
                              rental buildings to assist with balancing supply and demand
                              and promote the advantages of the rent supplement
                              program with the private sector. (See Recommended
                              Action 11.1).

Goal 2: To build capacity, readiness and identify resources to maximize take-up of
any new federal and provincial housing initiatives

Recommended Action 2.1          Identify and work with local partners including housing
                                and care providers, and builders to be ready for new
                                program announcements.

Recommended Action 2.2          Focus on capacity building. Identify expertise that is
                                available in the District. An option could entail working
                                with member municipalities to identify existing staff that
                                could be deployed to provide the required capacity as and
                                when required.

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Recommended Action 2.3      Solicit support from the Northern Ontario Service
                            Deliverers Association (NOSDA) and the Northwestern
                            Ontario Municipal Association (NOMA) to advocate for a
                            new capital funding allocation model that considers
                            northern factors related to geography, costs, loss of
                            employment, local demographic trends and high need
                            target groups, e.g., Aboriginals, homeless and seniors
                            with support service needs.

Goal 3: To support the government’s broader aging in place strategy by ensuring
that residents in social housing are able to age at home

Recommended Action 3.1      Work in partnership with the North West Local Health
                            Integration Network (NWLHIN) to create an aging in place
                            plan for residents living in social housing funded and
                            administered by the DSSAB. The plan is to include an
                            evaluation of all projects and their ability to be retrofitted to
                            accommodate accessibility requirements and provision of
                            home supports.

Recommended Action 3.2      Advocate for the capital and support services to implement
                            the aging in place strategy.

Recommended Action 3.3      Identify sources of funding to increase the number of
                            community relations workers, (CRWs) or hire personal
                            support care workers (PSWs) to provide support to older
                            tenants.

Goal 4: To maximize sustainability of the existing social housing supply

Recommended Action 4.1      Facilitate discussions with non-profit housing providers to
                            determine their interest in amalgamating with other
                            providers in the same general vicinity with the option of
                            contracting property management services with the
                            Thunder Bay District Housing Corporation (TBDHC) or
                            amalgamating with the TBDHC.

Recommended Action 4.2      Work with housing providers and the Ontario Non-Profit
                            Housing Association (ONPHA) to undertake a cost benefit
                            analysis of establishing a bulk purchasing program for
                            goods and services not offered by the Social Housing
                            Services Corporation (SHSC).

Recommended Action 4.3      Consideration be given to including TBDHC in bulk
                            purchasing programs used by the City of Thunder Bay.

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Recommended Action 4.4     Drawing on best practices, staff develop a policy
                           governing the use, disbursement and recovery of any one-
                           time capital funds advanced to housing providers.

Recommended Action 4.5     Working with the SHSC and housing providers, develop
                           preventative maintenance plans to be implemented by
                           housing providers. Further, that preventative maintenance
                           plans be mandatory for any provider requesting additional
                           capital or subsidies.

Recommended Action 4.6     Update the District’s capital plan including capital reserve
                           requirements, building condition assessments and identify
                           opportunities for energy efficiency.

Recommended Action 4.7     Share the building condition assessment reports used to
                           update the capital plan with housing providers for their
                           respective properties to facilitate capital works, capital
                           reserve fund planning and investment.

Recommended Action 4.8     Undertake a review of the DSSAB’s service level
                           standards to determine the issues that prevent the
                           standards being met. The review also identify strategies
                           for meeting the standards.

Recommended Action 4.9     Solicit the support of NOSDA, NOMA and the Association
                           of Municipalities of Ontario (AMO) to continue to advocate
                           for parity in social housing rent scales with the private
                           sector and request an increase to the minimum rent.

Recommended Action 4.10    Make available rent subsidies to housing initiatives that
                           advance the housing strategy for the District.

Recommended Action 4.11    A process be put in place a process to obtain a waiver
                           from the Province and Canada Mortgage and Housing
                           Corporation (CMHC) for each project reaching mortgage
                           maturity indicating that the project is no longer subject to
                           the Social Housing Reform Act (SHRA) and the Canada-
                           Ontario Social Housing Agreement (SHA) and                all
                           obligations of the DSSAB have ceased.

Recommended Action 4.12    Advocate for Service Manager authority to have a project
                           removed from under the SHRA once mortgages and
                           debentures have reached maturity.

Recommended Action 4.13    Confirm that all existing and future properties have
                           restrictions registered on title prohibiting their sale, transfer
                           or disposition.

Recommended Action 4.14    Determine the legal ability to retain the disposition
                           restrictions registered on title post mortgage maturity and

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                           operating agreement expiry.

Recommended Action 4.15    In partnership with NOSDA, NOMA and AMO, lobby for
                           the development of a post mortgage maturity
                           accountability framework to ensure the preservation and
                           affordability of the existing supply of social housing.

Recommended Action 4.16    Advocate in partnership with NOSDA, NOMA and AMO for
                           the continuing federal and provincial government capital
                           reinvestment in the existing social housing stock.

Goal 5: To improve client services and access to social housing

Recommended Action 5.1     Examine the feasibility of an integrated service delivery
                           model for Ontario Works, Housing and Child Care.

Recommended Action 5.2     Enter into information sharing arrangements with other
                           housing organizations in the District for which the DSSAB
                           is not directly responsible to establish a central data base
                           of housing opportunities and contacts.

Recommended Action 5.3     Establish multiple points of entry through existing
                           community service agencies and/or a mobile system to
                           facilitate the application processes for services delivered
                           by the DSSAB. Building on the introduction of the web
                           based application form for Ontario Works (OW), examine
                           the feasibility of allowing the completion and submission
                           of the application for rent-geared-to-income (RGI) housing
                           through the web.

Recommended Action 5.4     Simplify the application for housing (underway) and field
                           test with consumers prior to implementation.

Recommended Action 5.5     Examine the internal review process for clarity and
                           simplicity and develop written procedures that address
                           eligibility/ineligibility, waiting lists and priority rules,
                           occupancy standards, calculation of RGI rents and
                           procedural processes for internal review hearings.

Recommended Action 5.6     Develop a policy and process to assist individuals who
                           lack identification to access housing and work with
                           stakeholders to establish a policy with respect to the
                           requirement for a letter of reference or guarantor.

Recommended Action 5.7     Prepare a new tenant handbook that explains tenant
                           rights and obligations and make it available in a variety of
                           languages and in audio/ video form.

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Goal 6: To improve operational efficiency

Recommended Action 6.1      Formally request the Province to permit the rationalization
                            of projects under programs owned and operated by the
                            TBDHC.

Recommended Action 6.2      Examine the feasibility and cost implications of having
                            DSSAB staff perform RGI rent calculations for all housing
                            providers under administration by the DSSAB.

Goal 7: To ensure that all residents have access to housing and support services
which meet their needs

Recommended Action 7.1      Facilitate discussions with the Ministries of Community and
                            Social Services (MCSS) and Health and Long-Term Care
                            (MOHLTC - NWLHIN) to gain support and funding for an
                            integrated one-window approach to access housing and
                            support services in the District, and work with MCSS and
                            MOHLTC (NWLHIN) to ensure that by 2014 the following
                            measures are agreed to and in place:
                                  An implementation plan
                                  A new accountability framework with required
                                   resources identified
                                  Delivery plan with clearly articulated roles and
                                   responsibility
                                  Formal approval with funding in place to begin to
                                   implement the new approach to accessing housing
                                   and support services.

Goal 8: To break the cycle of homelessness

Recommended Action 8.1      In partnership with the City of Thunder Bay, the Province
                            of Ontario (MOHLTC (NWLHIN) and MCSS) and the
                            federal government facilitate the initiation of a pilot
                            program to provide a continuum of housing for the
                            homeless from harm reduction housing and crisis beds to
                            permanent RGI housing.

Recommended Action 8.2      In partnership with the City of Thunder Bay and
                            appropriate community agencies, facilitate a street needs
                            assessment of the homeless to determine the number of
                            homeless people and services required to keep the
                            homeless housed and safe.

Recommended Action 8.3      Seek funding from the federal government (Ministry of

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                           Human Resources and Skills Development), MOHLTC
                           (NWLHIN), MCSS and MMAH to establish a housing loss
                           prevention program.

Recommended Action 8.4     Put in place a system to track why tenants leave social
                           housing, e.g., no longer affordable (cost of utilities),
                           eviction (rent arrears).

Recommended Action 8.5     Establish targets to increase the number of homeless on
                           the waiting list for social housing and for the number of
                           homeless who qualify for OW.

Recommended Action 8.6     Consider establishing a mobile unit to work with the
                           homeless to complete applications for housing and
                           request OW and MCSS (Ontario Disability Support
                           Program (ODSP)) to participate.

Recommended Action 8.7     Work in partnership with AMO, NOSDA, and NOMA to
                           advocate for increased social assistance shelter rates.

Recommended Action 8.8     Consider the creation of a position or function to keep
                           track of government programs including information on
                           how to apply for grants, etc., and to assist community
                           based groups to apply for funding.

Goal 9: To advance the housing agenda – Improving the quality of life for
Aboriginal people

Recommended Action 9.1     Encourage the development of a master contact list of
                           Aboriginal organizations serving Aboriginal people living
                           off-reserve in the District.

Recommended Action 9.2     Establish a greater presence in the community by making
                           effective use of technology such as e-mail and electronic
                           newsletters to consult with Aboriginal service organizations
                           and receive input on a regular basis.

Recommended Action 9.3     Actively encourage. Aboriginal people to apply for
                           positions within the DSSAB by notifying known Aboriginal
                           organizations of employment opportunities as they arise.

Recommended Action 9.4     The DSSAB create a community development officer
                           position to interface between the DSSAB and specific
                           groups in the District such as the Aboriginal community.

Recommended Action 9.5     The DSSAB consider establishing an Aboriginal Liaison
                           Committee with representation from the Aboriginal
                           community, MMAH, NWLHIN and MCSS.

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Recommended Action 9.6     Request the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
                           (MMAH) to broaden the Special Priority Policy to include
                           Aboriginal families who are fleeing violence from on-
                           reserve extended families.

Recommended Action 9.7     The DSSAB review the urgent status category for housing
                           and amend it to include Aboriginal families who are fleeing
                           from violence from on-reserve extended families.

Recommended Action 9.8     Request the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
                           (MMAH) to amend the Social Housing Reform Act (SHRA)
                           to eliminate the minimum occupancy standard to minimize
                           the disadvantage to large households.

Recommended Action 9.9     In the absence of a legislative solution and with due regard
                           to health and safety, consider developing a policy to
                           enable local flexibility to accommodate large Aboriginal
                           families seeking subsidized housing. One approach may
                           be to designate guest suites in select buildings.

Recommended Action 9.10    Advocate for flexible new capital programs and operating
                           funding that will provide greater choices for meeting the
                           housing and support service needs of Aboriginal residents.

Recommended Action 9.11    Support the development of permanent, emergency and
                           transitional housing with and without supports for
                           Aboriginal people that is culturally appropriate and under
                           Aboriginal control to accommodate large Aboriginal
                           families seeking subsidized housing.

Recommended Action 9.12    Establish programs and policies to address discrimination.
                           Elements of the program could include:
                                 Partnering with the City of Thunder Bay and the
                                  Centre for Equality Rights in Accommodation
                                  (CERA) to promote human rights in housing
                                  targeted to both the community at large and
                                  specifically to landlords and tenants.
                                 Working with the Human Rights Commission to
                                  promote their policy on Housing and Human Rights
                                 Training DSSAB staff on the Commission’s policy
                                  on Housing and Human Rights
                                 Working with Aboriginal organizations to showcase
                                  successes achieved in housing.
Goal 10: To meet the demand for supportive housing

Recommended Action 10.1     Advocate for capital and operating funding to increase

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                           the supply of both dedicated supportive housing and
                           support services.

Recommended Action 10.2    Ensure that any new built or renovated housing is
                           barrier free and accessible in compliance with the
                           Accessibility for Ontarians Disabilities Act (AODA).

Recommended Action 10.3    Establish a co-ordinated process for identifying housing
                           priorities and proposed projects for capital and program
                           funding in the event of new government initiatives.

Recommended Action 10.4    Investigate the feasibility of a portable rent supplement
                           program where the subsidy is linked to the individual
                           rather than the unit.

Recommended Action 10.5    Advocate for the renewal of programs that provide
                           capital funding for renovations to existing housing both
                           private and publicly owned.

Recommended Action 10.6    In partnership with MOHLTC (NWLHIN) and MCSS,
                           undertake a study to identify available support services
                           in the District. The study should include type of
                           services provided, number and types of clients served,
                           funding source and amount of funding received.

Recommended Action 10.7    Support the provision of seniors’ supportive housing in
                           municipalities or communities where seniors reside
                           based on a comprehensive needs analysis.

Recommended Action 10.8    Where feasible and capacity exists, convert units in
                           existing social housing projects to supportive housing
                           for seniors.

Recommended Action 10.9    Assist member municipalities to work with the NWLHIN
                           to develop community specific aging in place strategies
                           maximizing available services.

Recommended Action 10.10   Work with the Métis Nation of Ontario (MNO) to
                           promote the availability of the Residential Rehabilitation
                           Assistance Program (RRAP) and the Residential
                           Rehabilitation Assistance Program for Persons with
                           Disabilities (RRAP-D).

Recommended Action 10.11   Facilitate discussions with MCSS and MOHLTC for the
                           purposes of establishing a registry system and
                           designated lead for supportive housing to match
                           individual needs with an appropriate form of housing.

Recommended Action 10.12   Review the application form, requirements and
                           processes for Ontario Works in collaboration with

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                            MCSS.

Recommended Action 10.13    Advise MCSS of stakeholders’ concerns with the
                            ODSP application form, requirements and processes
                            and request that they be reviewed.

Recommended Action 10.14    Explore with MCSS the feasibility of a single access
                            point for all OW and ODSP applications.

Goal 11: To establish effective partnerships with the private sector to foster a
positive environment in support of the District’s Housing Strategy.

Recommended Action 11.1     Work with private landlords to promote the benefits of
                            the rent supplement program and consider providing
                            assistance to support landlords with difficult tenants
                            where, in the opinion of the DSSAB, the assistance is
                            warranted.

Recommended Action 11.2     Adopt a formal and consistent method for
                            communicating with the development sector to
                            disseminate information about new government
                            initiatives. This could include providing information (and
                            web links) about new CMHC and Province of Ontario
                            initiatives on the DSSAB’s web site.

Recommended Action 11.3     Encourage members of the development community and
                            municipal officials to provide input into the development
                            of the 2011 edition of the Ontario Building Code.

Recommended Action 11.4     Encourage the City of Thunder Bay to adopt a definition
                            of Affordable Housing consistent with the 2005 Provincial
                            Policy Statement and review the implications of Bill 58 if
                            and when proclaimed to Part 6 of Section 2 of its Official
                            Plan.

Recommended Action 11.5     Explore the feasibility of providing in-situ rent
                            supplement assistance to residents who are unable to
                            afford the shelter component cost of residing in a
                            retirement home.

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A New Vision

The strategic directions identified in this study lend themselves to a vision and mission
statement for housing that encompasses the following principles:

    Co-ordinated access to housing and support services
    Building partnerships and collaboration between partners to achieve common
     goals
    Offering people choices about where and how they wish to live
    A system of housing and supports that is inclusive and maximizes personal
     growth

Suggested Vision

A people centric system of housing and support services that offers choice and
efficiency.

Suggested Mission Statement

The DSSAB’s mission is to:

      Promote and support housing opportunities and related services for people living
       in the District of Thunder Bay through the use of existing resources and
       programs by building effective partnerships which contribute to the social and
       economic development of the District.

      Promote equal access to housing and support services.

      Provide a sustainable supply of affordable and subsidized housing to meet the
       needs of current and future residents.

      Empower people through the provision of a continuum of housing and support
       services to become more independent and improve their quality of life.

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    1.0         WHY A HOUSING STRATEGY

1.1          Introduction

The District of Thunder Bay Social Services Administration Board (DSSAB) was
established on April 1, 1999, through the enactment of the District Social Services
Administration Board Act (DSSAB Act).

The provincial-municipal service delivery review conducted by the Province in the late
1990s resulted in a realignment of responsibilities between the Province and
municipalities. The Province determined that the residents of Ontario would be best
served if Ontario Works (OW), Community Child Care and Social Housing were
delivered and funded at the local level. To implement local service delivery of these and
other devolved functions, 47 municipal delivery agents known as Service Managers
were created. The DSSAB is one such delivery agent.

The DSSAB is funded by its member municipalities and through cost-sharing
arrangements with Provincial Ministries. The District of Thunder Bay Social Services
Administration Board consists of twelve members who are elected officials chosen by
their respective municipal councils representing areas defined in the DSSAB Act.

The DSSAB housing role, which commenced January 1, 2000, is governed by the Social
Housing Reform Act, 2000 (SHRA).

Over the last decade, the DSSAB has focused on consolidating, streamlining and
developing expertise in the social housing field. Prompted by changes in demography,
economic circumstances, increased funding pressures and increasingly limited ability to
house those in need, the DSSAB determined to sponsor a housing study to examine the
housing needs of all residents in the District. A study of this nature has never been
commissioned and extends beyond the legislated mandate of the DSSAB. However, the
DSSAB believed it must look at the full housing continuum to determine how it could
best support improvements to the housing system in the District.

1.2        Purpose and Methodology

The overall purpose of this study is to develop a comprehensive housing strategy for the
District. The study encompasses the full continuum of housing from market housing
(owned and rental), affordable housing (both market and government sponsored),
subsidized housing (non-profit and commercial rent supplement), Aboriginal3, supportive,
and transitional and emergency housing facilities serving victims of domestic violence
and the homeless.

3
    Note: First Nations on-reserve housing is a Federal responsibility and beyond the scope of this study.

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Within the context of the continuum, the study identifies:

      Current and future housing needs in the District
      Key issues related to the provision of and access to affordable and supportive
       housing
      Gaps and barriers in the system
      Strategic themes and proposed recommendations

The study also updates the DSSAB’s 2004 Community Plan and assesses the suitability
of the housing portfolio both owned and funded by the DSSAB relative to the needs of
current and future applicants for social housing. Sustainability of the portfolio from a
financial and asset management perspective is also examined.

To help guide the overall work plan and development of the Housing Strategy, the
DSSAB established a Steering Committee. The Steering Committee was chaired by the
CAO of the DSSAB and included the following members:

      2 political representatives from the City of Thunder Bay
      2 political representatives from the balance of the District
      2 staff representatives from the DSSAB
      1 staff representative from the Thunder Bay District Housing Corporation
      1 non-profit housing provider representative
      1 representative from the Aboriginal community
      1 representative from the North West Local Health Integration Network
       (NWLHIN)
      1 representative from the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care (MOHLTC)
      1 representative from the Ministry of Community and Social Services (MCSS)

The Housing Strategy was developed using both quantitative and qualitative data.

Quantitative analysis was undertaken using information derived from Statistics Canada,
CMHC, DSSAB Co-ordinated Access, housing providers and community agencies.

Qualitative information was derived from extensive consultations with a diverse range of
stakeholders from across the District including: Mayors/Reeves, CAOs, Community
Development Officers, representatives of local hospitals (Geraldton, Nipigon, Marathon,
Terrace Bay and Thunder Bay Regional Health Centre), The North West Local Health
Integration Network and Community Care Access Centre, Ontario Works staff, social
workers, support service providers, non-profit and supportive providers (seniors and
non-seniors), private retirement home operators and private developers. As well,
representatives and organizations serving the homeless, victims of domestic violence,
the physically disabled, those with developmental, mental and intellectual disabilities,
substance abusers, medical issues, etc., were also consulted with. (Refer to Appendix 2
for a complete list of stakeholders)

The information gained from these consultations was instrumental in shaping the
Housing Strategy.

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The Housing Strategy was developed in six phases:

Phase 1: Statistical Data Review and Information Gathering

       Identified housing trends, issues and needs based on an analysis of statistical
         data by area municipality.

       Updated the housing needs analysis for social housing funded and administered
        by the DSSAB.

       An environmental scan and economic forecast for the District as impacted by
        global economic trends was prepared to provide context to the supply and
        demand for affordable and subsidized housing in the District.

Phase 2: Stakeholder Meetings

       Identified key stakeholders across the District and held both one on one and
         group meetings to gather qualitative information to better indentify local needs,
         issues, gaps and housing priorities.

       A survey of non-profit providers, subject to the Social Housing Reform Act, 2000,
        was conducted to solicit their views on housing issues, needs and suggestions
        for addressing identified issues.

       A summary of findings to date including common themes and issues across the
        housing continuum was prepared to serve as a basis for further discussion and
        consultation.

Phase 3: Housing for Specific Populations

       Held focus group meetings specifically on housing for the homeless, Aboriginal
        people, supportive housing and social housing to validate findings to date related
        to issues, needs, gaps and barriers in the housing system.

       Identified priorities for housing, possible strategic directions and potential roles
        for housing partners.

Phase 4: Consolidation of Findings

     Consolidation of identified strategic directions, recommendations and role of the
      partners was presented to the Steering Committee for discussion and input.

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Phase 5: Public Consultation

     Proposed strategic directions and recommendations as endorsed by the Steering
      Committee to be released for broad public input and feedback.

Phase 6: The Housing Strategy

     Strategic directions and recommendations consolidated into a comprehensive
      Housing Strategy.

1.2.1 Study Format

The Housing Strategy is prepared in two parts. Part I is entitled, Housing Analysis
Report – Setting the Scene. It provides a review of the variables that impact the supply
and demand for all housing across the housing continuum. The trends revealed through
the analysis of the data were used to inform the Housing Strategy. It is a separate
companion document to the Housing Strategy Report. Appendix 6 to this report entitled,
Supportive Housing and Support Services Inventory is presented as a separate
document due to its size.

Part II is the Housing Strategy – Under One Roof. It addresses the needs and gaps
identified and proposes strategic directions, goals and recommended actions to
implement the strategy.

 2.0     PART I - THE CONTEXT

The Housing Strategy was developed within two overarching parameters: the projected
social and economic environment of the District as defined by its economic growth or
shrinkage and demographic characteristics; and, the policy and legislative framework set
by senior levels of government.

2.1.     Dynamics of Housing Supply and Demand

Long term demand for housing is fundamentally driven by complex factors governed by
economic, demographic, social and political conditions, principally focused at a local
level.

In periods of sustained growth, a requirement for more housing of all types
(ownership/rental, market, affordable and subsidized) is created both as a result of net
inward migration of households seeking jobs and opportunities, and new household
formation. Additional goods and services competitively produced and consumed by an
increased population invariably leads to more disposable income for all members of the
community. In favourable economic times, households are more inclined to assume (or
increase) mortgage debt to enhance their standard of living, and builders are similarly
more prepared to create additional housing stock as their financial risk is mitigated given
more secure revenue streams of the population.

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In unfavourable economic conditions (especially if they appear long term or chronic in
nature), the reverse is true. Outward migration occurs as households must re-locate in
order to find alternative employment and fewer new households are created as young
people are similarly forced to seek careers elsewhere. This can create an oversupply of
housing resulting in vacant stock and weakening housing prices and even mortgage
defaults. Although not commonly a serious problem, it recently became a material and
substantive issue in rural communities such as Longlac and Manitouwadge where both
market and subsidized housing continue to suffer from lack of demand.

Flat and declining economic conditions also give rise to increased demand for
subsidized, affordable and emergency housing. The loss of higher paying jobs coupled
with the inward migration of people to more urban centers where services are more
readily available and expectations for any type of work are higher, correlates with this
increased demand.

The characteristics of the population, in particular stage in the life cycle and level of
physical and mental ability will determine the type and number of housing units required
to serve the population.

2.2         Global Economy and Forest Products

After an encouraging recovery coming out of the 2008 recession – the worst global
decline experienced since the Great Depression – real economic growth in developed
nations has fallen off quite dramatically. Real growth numbers in most of the G20 nations
have contracted every quarter this year after peaking in the fourth quarter of 2009. The
generous government stimulus programs (globally adopted to offset failing demand) like
Canada and Ontario’s $2.5 billion package to buoy construction in the social housing
sector alone, have wound down. Governments, now concerned with deficits and their
long term derogatory impact on the economy, have limited spending in favour of bridging
the budgetary gaps. But the severity of the recession combined with the curtailment of
government support programs and extensive correction in equity markets, have left
consumers too weak to drive consistent aggregate demand. The high unemployment
levels that characterized the recession have not improved, and this has led to low levels
of consumer confidence with particularly negative effects on autos and housing, two
critical sectors of the economy. As of October 2010, Statistics Canada reported little
change to unemployment rates standing at 8.0 per cent and 8.8 per cent for Canada and
Ontario respectively. United States unemployment stood at 9.6 per cent as of September
2010 (the all inclusive U-6 number at 17.6 per cent)4.

Not all countries in the G20 have suffered equally. Those with export oriented
economies (i.e., Canada, Australia, Brazil, Germany) focused on Far East and emerging
market countries have fared much better. The developing countries had much less
exposure to the financial meltdowns of 2008 and considerably less overall debt leverage
(credit is traditionally tighter), consequently, they recovered more rapidly than many of
their developed counterparts. Aggregate demand remained quite robust and their

4
    U-6 number includes people whose unemployment benefits have run out

    Toni Farley & Associates                                                      Page 19
DRAFT HOUSING STRATEGY – UNDER ONE ROOF

recovery is now considerably well advanced. The Asian tigers, China, India, Taiwan,
Korea and Malaysia have seen their economies soar to pre-recession growth rates and
countries providing them with either natural resources or machine technologies have
participated in their growth. But many G20 countries are not heavily export focused and
are recovering much more slowly using only domestic programs wherever possible to
enhance growth. Most notably among these countries is the US (about 40 per cent of the
global economy). As the essential locomotive of world growth and Canada’s largest
trading partner, slow growth south of the border has negative consequences here.
Canada is performing much better than the US for several reasons (export boom in
commodities and no banking crises), but Canada’s recovery will remain tepid and our
unemployment levels unacceptable until the US recovery regains its former health.

Two formerly prominent Canadian export sectors tied exclusively to the US that will
absolutely struggle to recover are autos (US consumption is 25-30 per cent below
normal) and forestry (lumber, pulp and paper). Even though the US has embarked upon
some of the most aggressive monetary policy in the last century, high unemployment,
poor consumer confidence and declining housing markets have left US consumers
sceptical. Attempts by Washington to artificially stimulate demand, Cash for Clunkers
(autos) and a first time home owners grant program only managed to raise demand to
the length of their programs. When the tax money ran out, sales and demand also
dropped. Lumber prices which recovered sharply out of the abyss of 2008 are now back
to levels of about a year ago ($240 US MB) and just barely profitable for efficient mills,
especially given the rise of the Canadian dollar now at close to parity with the US dollar.
With US housing starts at levels (450,000) not seen since the early seventies, it is hard
to see these prices (and volumes) bouncing back anytime soon. Paper has performed
better, but for different reasons. Diminishing US demand has been replaced by Far East
demand and temporary supply disruptions (Chilean earth quake and extended Finish mill
closures), but Far East buyers are extremely price sensitive and South American low
cost producers are displacing North American ones. The long term outlook for paper is
not attractive for most northern hemisphere producers (although a bit better for lower
value added pulp).

Where does the future of the forestry industry lie? According to representatives of the
Thunder Bay Community Economic Development Commission, the future may well be in
high end value added paper and wood products.

2.3      Economic Forecast District of Thunder Bay

The inability to compete on a global basis in the forestry sector over the last 10 years
has had devastating impacts on local economies. Economic recovery has been slow and
will hinge on the ability of the District to transform itself into a more diverse economy.
Tenure reform should help rejuvenate the forestry industry paving the way for smaller
entrepreneurs to access wood supplies to produce higher end goods like plywood.

With the world price of gold and other metals at consistently high prices over the past
few years, there has been renewed interest in mining and mining exploration – gold
mines which closed or were close to shutting down are now seen as viable. The
potential for the mining of ferrochrome and a significant amount of other metals in the

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DRAFT HOUSING STRATEGY – UNDER ONE ROOF

area known as the “Ring of Fire” north of Geraldton has expectations running high and if
successful would do much to lift the economy of the District.
An underdeveloped asset in municipalities such as Red Rock and Nipigon is the natural
beauty of an area that, with thoughtful planning (currently underway) and marketing,
could do much to draw tourism to the North Shore of Lake Superior. For the City of
Thunder Bay, focused efforts are required to capitalize on its geographical position as
the gateway to the West.

With varying degrees of success, municipalities are pursuing economic development
strategies to balance and diversify local economies. For the Thunder Bay Census
Metropolitan Area (CMA) there are positive signs of the economy transitioning and
becoming more diverse. Growth is already occurring in the Bio research and health care
fields and is expected to increase over the next few years.

2.4    Demographic Trends in the District

The population of the District is declining. From 1996 to 2006, Statistics Canada
reported that the overall population fell from 155,945 to 146,280 – a decline of about 6.2
per cent. This decline is expected to continue. The Ministry of Finance reports that the
population is projected to decline a further 2.4 per cent to 142,720 by 2016 and to
continue to decline for the next 25 years.

Not only is the population declining but like most areas across the province, the
population is aging and will continue to age as the post World War II baby boom moves
through the life cycle. The change is predominantly evident in the number of people 45
years of age and older. By 2016, projections for the District of Thunder Bay show that
over time the age distribution of the population will change with more people being in the
senior (65-74) or older senior (75+) age categories.

Figure 1 charts the projected age distribution for population of the District to 2031.

                   FIGURE 1: POPULATION OF THUNDER BAY DISTRICT
                                    2006-2031
                    50000
                    45000
                    40000
                                                                                2006
                    35000
                                                                                2011
                    30000
                                                                                2016
                    25000
                                                                                2021
                    20000
                                                                                2026
                    15000
                                                                                2031
                    10000
                    5000
                       0
DRAFT HOUSING STRATEGY – UNDER ONE ROOF

The number of households increased in the District by 2.3 per cent from 60,470 in 2001
to 61,635 in 2006. This increase was geographically centred in the Territories Without
Municipal Organization (TWOMO) and the Thunder Bay CMA. While the number of
households increased, household size declined over the same period from 2.45 to 2.37
persons per household in 2006.

The declining and aging population coupled with more and smaller sized households
defines the type of housing supply that is required to meet current and future housing
demands.

2.5    Provincial Policy Framework

The development of the Housing Strategy requires that it take into consideration broader
government policies and directions that have or may have a bearing on it.

The Social Housing Reform Act, 2000 (SHRA) is the key piece of legislation that governs
the DSSAB’s mandate and authorities with respect to the funding and administration of
social housing. This legislation is highly prescriptive leaving little autonomy for
discretionary decision making to address local housing issues. There is cause for
cautious optimism as the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing (MMAH) determined
as part of its consultations on the development of a Long-Term Affordable Housing
Strategy (LTAHS) for Ontario to open the SHRA for review. Both the release of new (or
amended) legislation governing social housing and the LTAHS anticipated for later this
fall will provide the new framework from which the Housing Strategy will need to be
positioned.

The ability to achieve housing targets set out herein will clearly depend on the renewal of
capital funding initiatives by both the federal and provincial governments. Current capital
funding made available for housing by both Canada and Ontario under the Economic
Stimulus initiative has for the most part been fully allocated. It is unknown whether the
governments of Canada and Ontario will enter into another cost sharing agreement to
provide further capital funding for housing purposes. Nonetheless, the DSSAB will need
to ready its partners to maximize take-up of any new capital funding initiatives.

With respect to supportive housing, services and supports are principally funded by the
Ministry of Community and Social Services (MCSS) and the Ministry of Health and Long-
Term Care (MOHLTC). The extent to which these two Ministries may be prepared to
invest in more support services and/or partner in new approaches to accessing housing
and support services will depend on available funding envelopes and the extent to which
government priorities align.

The current initiative of MCSS to transform developmental services to improve “services
and supports for adults with a developmental disability to make them more equitable,
accessible, fair and financially sustainable” needs to be considered. An important part of
the Services and Supports to Promote the Social Inclusion of Persons with
Developmental Disabilities Act, 2008 is a new application process which provides a one-
window approach to housing and support services. New entities to be created across the
province would provide the following services for those persons with developmental
disabilities:

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          Information
          Determination of eligibility
          Determination of service and support service needs
          Service navigation
          Linking people to services and supports
          Administration of direct funding agreements

MCSS also funds and administers a portfolio of supportive social housing units
transferred from MMAH.

MOHLTC currently has a number of existing services and priorities that may align with
the Housing Strategy. These include the Aging at Home Strategy, funding and
administration of supportive housing for consumers of mental health services and a
proposed 10 year mental health and addictions strategy for Ontario.

Additionally, there may be initiatives arising from the Provincial-Municipal Fiscal and
Service Delivery Review with respect to human services delivery and integration, and
the consolidation of housing across ministries that may impact the Housing Strategy.
Most certainly, the Poverty Reduction Act 2009 recognizes the interplay of housing,
health, and income support programs to reducing overall poverty levels.

2.6        Fiscal Framework

On a provincial basis, health and social programs cost shared by the Province and
Municipalities total over $10 billion annually5.

Cost sharing arrangements between the Province and Municipalities vary according to
program. As the realignment of responsibilities between the Province and Municipalities
was intended to be revenue neutral, Service Managers receive assistance with their
share of social programs through the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund (OMPF), which
for the DSSAB includes some recognition of the challenges it faces as a northern and
rural community. While the costs faced by the DSSAB continue to rise, the amount of
money received from the OMPF is fixed, resulting in the goal of revenue neutrality not
now being met.

Specifically with regard to the costs of social housing, Service Managers such as
TBDSSAB receive a share of federal dollars associated with social housing projects and
programs transferred to the Province under the Canada-Ontario Social Housing
Agreement. This funding covers what was the federal share of operating subsidies and
capital associated with the federal and federal/provincial transferred programs. The
provincial share of those program costs is now a Service Manager responsibility.
Further, for those projects which were developed solely by the Province, the Service
Manager is now responsible for all of the costs. The federal flow through funding is
eliminated as individual project mortgages or debentures mature. Figure 2 on the
following page provides an illustration of the step out of federal flow through dollars.

5
    Source: Ontario Non-Profit Housing Association

    Toni Farley & Associates                                                     Page 23
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                               FIGURE 2: DECLINING FEDERAL FUNDING

By 2033, all mortgages and operating agreements will have expired, and there is no
further federal funding currently planned. Provincially, the drop in federal funding
becomes material at about 2020.

The scenario for TBDSSAB mirrors the provincial trend line. In the five year period from
2015 to 2019, 11 per cent of mortgages and debentures will reach maturity, 42 per cent
from 2020 to 2024, with a further 43 per cent reaching maturity in 2025-20296.

Under the SHRA (s.s. 130 (1)), the DSSAB is to apportion the amount of its housing
costs among municipalities within its service area (District) and Territories Without
Municipal Organization (TWOMO). Municipalities are required to pay the amount
apportioned to them. The cost of housing apportioned to TWOMO is invoiced to MMAH
for payment. The City of Thunder Bay commensurate with its resources, based on
weighted assessment, pays by far the largest share of costs at approximately 75 per
cent of the total.

Weighted assessment is a calculation determined by “multiplying the taxable
assessment for each prescribed property class by the tax ratio established by the
municipality for each class. The tax ratio used for each property class in the
unincorporated territory is the weighted average of those established by incorporated
municipalities. The weighted assessment for each property class is then summed to
determine a total for each municipality and unincorporated territory. Each municipality’s
sum is then divided by the aggregate of all member municipalities’ weighted assessment
to determine its share.”7

The accountability framework between the DSSAB and its members is such that the
Board must seek double majority support for any expansion of services outside of the
core mandate. To obtain double majority support, eight of the 15 Board members must
vote in favour of a resolution and the eight members must represent 50 per cent plus
one of the total population of the District. This policy was developed at inception as there

6
  Source: TBDSSAB, Calculations by Toni Farley & Associates. Excludes Native People of Thunder Bay
Development Corporation.
7
  Source: TBDSSAB

    Toni Farley & Associates                                                                Page 24
DRAFT HOUSING STRATEGY – UNDER ONE ROOF

was a concern that the Board would go beyond its mandate. This policy may prove to be
a challenge to expanding services that may be required to support the Housing Strategy.

Once mortgages and debentures mature and operating agreements expire, the
DSSAB’s funding obligations change. It continues to be the sole shareholder of the
Thunder Bay District Housing Corporation (TBDHC) responsible for funding and
administration of about 2,675 former public housing units in accordance with the SHRA.
With the former federal unilateral projects, such as those developed under the Urban
Native Housing Programs, it will effectively cease to have funding obligations for those
projects when mortgages have matured and operating agreements expired. The
DSSAB’s obligation to subsidize former provincial projects cease once the Minister of
Municipal Affairs and Housing terminates the Service Manager’s duty under s. 102 of the
Act.

Housing providers whose operating agreements have expired or who have been
released from under the Act by the Minister are only required to conduct themselves in
accordance with their corporate by-laws. That is, they are no longer subject to DSSAB
administration.

In a pre and post mortgage maturity environment, the Service Manager has a legislated
responsibility to meet its service level standards. A service level standard is a prescribed
obligation to fund a specified number of households on a rent-geared-to-income (RGI)
basis. The DSSAB has an ongoing obligation to fund 3,601 units of RGI housing as
specified in O. Reg. 368/01 Table 7 of the Act. Post mortgage maturity, the service
levels are not tied to specific projects and will be able to meet its service level standards
as it determines. However, it will then have to enter into new agreements with formerly
subsidized housing providers or acquire units in the private sector.

 3.0     THE HOUSING CONTINUUM

The DSSAB determined early on that the strategy would cover the full housing
continuum to ensure the housing needs of all residents in the District were considered.

The various components that make up the housing continuum have their own dynamics
which shape their respective markets but they are also interdependent. Activity or
inactivity in one area affects the supply or availability of other housing. For example, a
limited supply of housing subsidies means considerable delay or inability of individuals to
move from temporary or emergency housing to permanent subsidized housing.
Similarly, a general lack of rental housing stock would inhibit mobility along the
continuum even if there were rent subsidies available. Lack of supportive housing for
seniors may mean that some seniors are prematurely placed in long-term care homes. A
lack of supportive housing in general for persons with disabilities or other issues may
mean that hospital beds are unavailable for acute care patients and cause back-ups in
emergency rooms.

 Toni Farley & Associates                                                            Page 25
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