Dublin Office Market Overview - Research, Q3 2021 Special Focus: Dublin 2 leads the way as the office market rebounds - Knight Frank

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Occupier Trends     Investment Trends   Market Outlook

Dublin Office

                                                                      knightfrank.com/research
Market Overview
Research, Q3 2021

Special Focus: Dublin 2 leads the way as the office market rebounds
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                                                                                                                                                                                                        DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     OVERVIEW Q3 2021
                                                                                    15.6%
                                                                                   Forecast GDP growth in 2021

                                                                             The re-opening of the Irish and global
                                                                                                                                                                                                               The Irish economy is rebounding even faster than expected. Domestic activity is
                                                                                 economies has boosted domestic
                                                                                  economic growth and fuelled an
                                                                                                                                                                                                             anticipated to be at pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021. Coupled with the multi-
                                                                                   already strong export sector.                                                                                            national sector, the value of the economy will reach the highest level on record in 2021.

                                                                                              PAGE 3

                                                                                                                                                                                         ECONOMY                                       With these levels of growth will come                                     uu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       an increase in employment, with the
                                                                                                                                                                                         All expectations about the pace of the                                                                   Overall GDP growth of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Central Bank indicating that it expects                 15.6% in sight for 2021, with
                                                                                                                                                                                         recovery in the Irish economy have been

€133m                                                                                                                                                436,000                             exceeded, with GDP growth now expected
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       160,000 jobs to be created by 2023. While                 the domestic side of the
                                                                                                                                                                                         to be over 15% for the year as a whole.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       employment growth has been slower                       economy expected to grow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       by over 5%.

                                                                                                                                                      sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       to recover in the sectors which have
                                                                                                                                                                                         Domestic activity has taken off and is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       been worst affected by Covid-19, such as
    Invested in Dublin office                                                                                                                                                            expected to be at pre-pandemic levels by                                                                                uu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       hospitality and retail, it has been stronger
 assets in Q3, taking total office                                                                                                                                                       the end of 2021. Coupled with the ongoing
investment to €772m for the first                                                                                                                                                                                                      than pre-pandemic levels in the high                    (including pharma), which remain the
                                                                                                                                                               Office market take-up,    strength of the multi-national sector, the
    nine months of the year.                                                                                                                                                                                                           value adding sectors of ICT and industry                two highest value adding sectors of the
                                                                                                                                                               a significant bounce as   value of the economy is set to reach the
   81% of investor spend was                                                                                                                                   the economy opens up.     highest level on record in 2021.

                                                                   5 KEY
        on five buildings.                                                                                                                                     35% of Q3 take-up was
                                                                                                                                                                                         The multi-national sector, largely                                             Employment by economic sector (‘000’s)
                                                                                                                                                                     in Dublin 2.
             PAGE 10                                                                                                                                                                     unaffected by Covid-19, is experiencing a           Q2 2019      Q2 2020         Q2 2021

                                                                TA K E A W AY S
                                                                                                                                                                       PAGE 4
                                                                                                                                                                                         stronger than expected increase in overall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
                                                                                                                                                                                         demand and export demand in particular.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Industry

                                                                                                                                                                                                             uu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Human Health & Social Work
                                                                                                                                                                                         Employment growth across
                                                                                                                                                                                            the high value adding                         Education
                                                                                                                                                                                           sectors is now stronger
                                                                                                                                                                                          than pre-pandemic levels.                       Public Admin & Defence

                                                                                                                                                                                                             uu                           Admin & Support Services

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Prof, Scientific & Tech
                                                                                                                                                                                         The pace of the recovery in the EU, US,

                              60%-75%                                                                                        62%                                                         UK and Ireland’s other trading partners
                                                                                                                                                                                         has and will continue to add further
                                                                                                                                                                                         momentum to export demand. Irish
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ICT

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Accommodation & Food Services

                             of the total space that will be let in the market                                        of space completed in Q3 is pre-let.                               export growth is set to reach double digits
                             in 2021, is expected to be located in Dublin 2.                                                                                                             in 2021 and will remain a driving force          Transport & Storage
                                                                                                                   The impact of delays post covid lockdowns
                              Occupier preference for large new space in                                                                                                                 into 2022 and 2023.
                                                                                                                    along with the challenge of supply con-                                                                               Wholesale & Retail Trade, Repairs of Motors
                                 Dublin’s core is leading the recovery.
                                                                                                                   straints and cost pressures, has impacted                             The domestic side of the economy has
                                                 PAGE 9                                                             the pipeline quite considerably in 2021.                                                                              Construction
                                                                                                                                                                                         recovered at pace and is expected to
                                                                                                                                    PAGE 8                                               increase by 5.1% in 2021 and by over 7% in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Ag, Forestry & Fishing
                                                                                                                                                                                         2022. Household spending is the leading
                                                                                                                                                                                         component of the recovery in domestic            Other
                                                                                                                                                                                         demand, with personal consumption
                                                                                                                                                                                         expected to grow by 6.2% this year and by       0               50               100           150   200        250         300         350
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Source: CSO/Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                                                                                                         over 8% in 2022.
4                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5

overall economy. Job creation in the           Both labour shortages (leading to                           A return to the office is gradually                                                      Take-up                                                          Services and Finance which accounted for          expect strong competition for centrally
professional services sector has also          higher wages) and price increases on                        underway and while the October 22nd date                                                 436,000 sq ft of space transacted in Q3 -                        21% and 19% respectively.                         located buildings with the best flexibility,
already gathered pace in 2021.                 materials are having an impact on the                       for a complete removal of the requirement                                                more than double the 196,000 sq ft that                                                                            amenities, connectivity, technology, and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Vacancy
                                               construction sector and on overall                          to work from home, has been extended to                                                  was let during the first half of 2021. While                                                                       sustainability features which should put
As a result, the unemployment rate                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   The vacancy rate fell from 10.6% in Q2 to
                                               commercial building costs, which are                        Spring 2022, most companies are starting                                                 this brings take-up for the nine months of                                                                         upward pressure on prime rents. Buildings
has fallen relatively rapidly with the                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10.5% in Q3 – the first contraction since the
                                               expected to feed into upward pressure                       to implement hybrid working models.                                                      the year to 633,000 sq ft, it remains below                                                                        that do not satisfy these requirements
seasonally adjusted monthly rate at                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  onset of the pandemic. With 84,000 sq ft
                                               on rental levels in the office market in                    Combined with job creation across many                                                   the market’s long term average (10-year)                                                                           will suffer from an increasingly smaller
6.4% in September. The expectation is                                                                                                                                                                                                                                reserved at One Park Place and a further
                                               2022 and 2023.                                              sectors which are office based, including                                                for this point of the year which stands at                                                                         target audience, with the spreads between
that unemployment will fall further in                                                                                                                                                                                                                               52,000 sq ft reserved at 124-127 St Stephen’s
                                                                                                           ICT, professional services and the                                                       1.6 million sq ft. Encouragingly however,                                                                          prime and secondary offices expected to
2022 and 2023, potentially dropping                                   uu                                                                                                                                                                                             Green, there is strong evidence that there is
                                                                                                           public sector, companies will be better                                                  a further 525,000 sq ft was reserved in                                                                            widen further.
below an annual rate of 6% in 2023.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  significant occupier demand for the better
                                                      Prospects for the                                    able to assess their future office space                                                 Q3, bringing the overall volume of space
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     quality grey space on the market which            OUTLOOK
Inflationary pressures remain                      office market are very                                  requirements and seek expanded and new                                                   reserved in the market to 1.1 million sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     should put further downward pressure on
inevitable given the pace of the                     favourable as the                                     space that fits the higher specifications of                                             in 2021.                                                                                                           As the phased return to the office continues
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     the vacancy rate in the coming quarters.
recovery and the supply constraints                 economy opens up.                                      the future office model.                                                                                                                                                                                    and companies assess their business
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Take-up in the South Suburbs rivalled
that are currently apparent in both                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Rents                                             requirements and occupational strategies,
                                                                                                                                                                                                    that of the City Centre with both areas
the domestic and global markets. How                                  uu
                                                                                                           OCCUPIER TRENDS                                                                          accounting for 44% of activity each.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Prime rents remained stable at €57.50 psf         we expect office take-up to trend stronger
much of this will become permanent                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   in Q3 and our view is that there is a firm        again in Q4. A significant quantum of the
                                                                                                           The success of Ireland’s vaccination rollout                                             The South Suburbs was home to two of
remains difficult to determine at this         The construction sector saw a strong                                                                                                                                                                                  floor on prime rents at this level. There         1.1 million sq ft that is reserved should
                                                                                                           programme, and the current extension                                                     the largest transactions which saw BNP
point, but it is reasonable to forecast        rebound in activity in Q2 (22.9%)                                                                                                                                                                                     was evidence of a flight to quality on the        transact with annual take-up likely to
                                                                                                           of it, along with the gradual easing of                                                  Paribas take 44,000 sq ft at Termini in
given current price pressures, that            compared to Q1, when the sector was                                                                                                                                                                                   part of occupiers as demonstrated by the          stand at 1.5 million sq ft by year-end.
                                                                                                           restrictions is providing companies with                                                 the Sandyford Business District, while
consumer price inflation will remain           in lockdown and activity is expected to                                                                    I N T E N D TO I N C R E A S E H O L D I N G S                                                             fact that four of the top five transactions in    A tighter development pipeline, along
                                                                                                           a pathway back to the office and cause                                                   Accenture took 37,000 sq ft at Building
above the targeted 2% in 2022, possibly        continue to gather pace as developers                                                                                                                                                                                 Q3 involved buildings that were delivered         with increased costs and enhanced
                                                                                                           to consider their future occupational                                                    10, Cherrywood Business Park. TMT
exceeding 4%, depending on how                 aim to catch-up on delivery deadlines,                                                                                                  NO CHANGE                                                                     during the last three years. As the market        sustainability requirements, will put
                                                                                                           strategies which has translated into a                                                   comprised 31% of activity, while there was
energy price pressures evolve over the         which have been impacted by six                                                                                                                                                                                       recovery intensifies, and given the de-           upward pressure on rents as the market
                                                                                                           marked improvement in activity in Q3. I N T E N D                                       also
                                                                                                                                                                    TO D E C R E A S E H O L D I N G S strong demand from Professional
next six to nine months.                       months across most schemes.                                                                                                                                                                                           risked pipeline over the next two years, we       recovers further in 2022 and 2023.

     10.5%
                                                                         TOP 5 OFFICE LEASING TRANSACTIONS                                                                                                                                   Dublin market vacancy rate

                                                                                                                                                                                                    12%
                                                                   PROPERTY                          TENANT                  SECTOR         SIZE (SQ FT)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           €57.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                    10%
                                                               TERMINI, DUBLIN 18                  BNP PARIBAS               FINANCE             43,767
                  Vacancy rate                                                                                                                                                                      8%
                                                           BUILDING 10, CHERRYWOOD                                         PROFESSIONAL
                                                                                                   ACCENTURE                                     36,525
                                                           BUSINESS PARK, DUBLIN 18                                          SERVICES                                                               6%

                                                      40 MOLESWORTH STREET, DUBLIN 2                DLA PIPER
                                                                                                                           PROFESSIONAL
                                                                                                                                                 29,773                                             4%                                                                                                                          prime rents holding firm
             Take-up by sector                                                                                               SERVICES

                      Q3 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (per sq ft)
                                                        140 PEMBROKE ROAD, DUBLIN 4                  BORD BIA                 STATE              27,588
                                                                                                                                                                                                    2%
                       TMT 31%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    0%
                           PROF SERVICES 21%
                                                           6 PEMBROKE ROW, DUBLIN 2                    OPW                    STATE              27,557                                                     Q1      Q2      Q3       Q4      Q1     Q2      Q3     Q4   Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4   Q1          Q2       Q3
                                FINANCE 19%                                                                                                                                                                2018    2018    2018     2018    2019   2019    2019   2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021        2021     2021

                                                  Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                                                                     Source: Knight Frank Research

                                                                                                Office take-up                                                                                                                               Prime rental growth (per sq ft)
                                                                                                 sq ft (millions)

                                                                                                                                                                                                    €80

                                                                                                                                                                                                     €70
                                                                                                                    3.9M
                                                                                                    3.6M                                                                                            €60
                                                                                                                              3.3M
                                                                                                                                                                                                    €50
                                                                                         2.8M
                                                                                  2.7M
                                                                 2.4M                                                                                                                               €40
                                                                                                                                                   Forecast
                                                    2.0M                                                                                                                                            €30
        EDUCATION 1%
                                                                                                                                          1.5M       1.5M                                           €20
              OTHER 6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                     €10
               MEDICAL 8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                     €0
                    STATE 14%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2013         2014           2015     2016          2017    2018       2019       2020    2021f
                                                   2013          2014         2015       2016       2017            2018      2019        2020       2021f
Source: Knight Frank Research                     Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                                                                     Source: Knight Frank Research
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                                  TOP LETTINGS, INVESTMENTS & DEVELOPMENTS IN Q3 2021

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                                                                                                      Business Centre

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                                                          ES                                          Date: Q3 2021                                                                                                                                                                                                               ST                                                                                                                                                                                                                SH ER IF F ST

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                                                                    RF                                Price: €24,330,000                                                                                                                                                                                              RN                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      R
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                                                                              LD                      NIY: 4.95%
                                            PHOENIX

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                                             PARK                                       E             Vendor: Blackstone                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            CONVENTION

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      CENTRE

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                                                                                                      Purchaser: Union Investment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                SMITHFIELD

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                                                                         HEUSTON                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                S QUAY
                                                                         STATION                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           R GE                                            C IT Y
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Y                         50 City Quay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ARR                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Date: Q3 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 AN
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                        USH               Y                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Size: 4,500 sq ft
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         UAY                                                                                           DQ       UAY                                                                                                                                                 Developer: Hibernia REIT
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       The Reflector

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        TRINITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               TR                                                                                                                                                                       COLLEGE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    EE                                                                                                                                                                   DUBLIN                                                    PEA                                                                                                                 Date: Q3 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         T                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   RSE
                                                                                                                                                                                                    THOM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           STR                                                                                                 Take-up: 23,332 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                               AS S                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         E ET
SOUT H CIR CU LA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    TRE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Tenant: Wix
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        E   T                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2 Cumberland Place                                         2 Cumberland Place

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              40 Molesworth Street                                                                                                                                                                     Sector: TMT

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                                                                                                                       RE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     GRAFTON                         Date: Q3 2021
                                                                                                                  ST                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Take-up: 5,378 sq ft                                       Size: 58,000 sq ft

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Take-up: 29,773 sq ft

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                                                                                                      JA                                                                                                                                                                                                      Two Clarendon Row                                                                                                                                                              Tenant: Invesco                                            Developer: Hibernia REIT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Tenant: DLA Piper

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                                                                     D                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sector: Finance
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sector: Professional Services
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                            OLD                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Size: 26,000 sq ft                                                                                                                                                                                 GR
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                                                                                                                                                                                           ROW                                                                                                                Developer: Lone Star

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Note: Sold to Hines                                                                                                                                   MERRION                                                          NA
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  UPP                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ET                                        Date: Q3 2021
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     WE                              Take-up: 6,835 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              R                      Tenant: Berkshire Hathaway                                  UE
                                                                                                                                                                                       T                                                                                                                                                       CUFFE ST                                                     7-12 Baggot Court                                                                                                                                                                                        BA TH AV EN
                                                                                                                                                                              R   EE                                                                                                                76-78 Harcourt Street                                                                                                                                                                      Fitzwilliam 28                                                        Sector: Finance
                                                                                                                                                                           ST                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Date: Q3 2021
                                                                                                                                                                      RK                                                                                                                            Date: Q3 2021                                                                                                                                                                              Date: Q3 2021
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Take-up: 6,037 sq ft

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Size: 135,000 sq ft

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Price: €21,200,000
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Tenant: Free Now
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                                                                                            SO                                                                                                                                                                                                      NIY: 4.33%                                                                   THE                                                                                                           Developer: ESB
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              BA
                                                                                                 UT                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sector: TMT
                                                                                                                                                                                           R

                                                                                                      HC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               IVEAGH                                                                                                          Note: Sold to Amundi Real Estate
                                                                                                                                                                                           E

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Vendor: Henderson Park

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            LE
                                                                                                         IRC

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ES
                                                                                                                       RR                                                                                                                                                                           Purchaser: Sofidy                                                                                                                                                                                                                              RD                                                      AVIVA STADIUM

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        6 Pembroke Row

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         BOUR
                                                                                   AD
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NBR

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      RE ET

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        R

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             WI

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ER
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Date: Q3 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   CLA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            TZ

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          LA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          N E R OA D
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Take-up: 27,557 sq ft

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         FI

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ND
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Station Building Two
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          T LOW

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Tenant: OPW                                               Connaught House

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           RO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Date: Q3 2021                                                                                                                       Sector: State                                             Date: Q3 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     CH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               AD
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Block One, Ballsbridge Park
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ER

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Take-up: 15,425 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     AR

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Take-up: 5,306 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      LE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Tenant: Fidelis Marketing                                                                                                                                                                     Tenant: Phillip Lee                                                                                  Date: Q3 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          M

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sector: Finance                                                                                           Charlemont House
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          O

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sector: Professional Services                                                                        Price: €32,000,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           NT

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Date: Q3 2021                                                                                                                                                                            NIY: 5.40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ST

                                                          KEY                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Price: €6,925,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   140 Pembroke Road
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Vendor: Intrust Properties                      E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                NU
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              NIY: 4.85%                                                                                                                                                                               Purchaser: Core Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             One Park Place

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               E AVE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Date: Q3 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         RA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Vendor: Kennedy Wilson
                                                                                    LETTINGS                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Date: Q3 2021                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Take-up: 27,588 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         NE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Purchaser: MKN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Take-up: 25,599 sq ft

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           TIN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              LE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          LA

                                                                                    INVESTMENTS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Tenant: Bord Bia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Tenant: 2K Games                                                                                                                                                      ES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          GH R

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ON                                                         Sector: State

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           EN
                                                                                    DEVELOPMENTS                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sector: TMT                                                                                                                                                                     ST

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  UP

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               SE
                                                                                    DART RAIL LINE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     PE
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                                                                                    LUAS TRAM LINE
                                                                                    LUAS TRAM LINE
8                                                                                                                              9

                                                                                                                                                                                                   SPECIAL FOCUS
OFFICE DEVELOPMENT
Delays to the delivery pipeline directly                                                                                                        D U B L I N 2 L E A D S T H E W AY A S T H E O F F I C E
due to lockdowns and indirectly due
                                                                                                                                                               MARKET REBOUNDS
to challenges involved in making up
lost time, have impacted the amount of
space that has been able to be delivered
in 2021. Of the 1.8m sq ft that is due
                                                                                                                                       A     s the Dublin office market
                                                                                                                                             rebounds, Dublin 2, the traditional
                                                                                                                                                                                       73% of the space completed in the office
                                                                                                                                                                                       market in Q3 is in Dublin 2, with the delivery
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Looking at the same time frame, a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               significant amount of what is currently
to complete, 1m sq ft is still due to be                                                                                               core of the office market is set to benefit     of 135,000 sq ft at Fitzwilliam 28, which                               under construction in the area is already
delivered in Q4.                                                                                                                       from a minimum of 60% of total expected         is pre-let to Slack, the largest building to                            pre-let. Furthermore, 29% of the space

                                                                                                                                       take-up in 2021 and up to 75% depending         complete in the market this quarter. A                                  which has not commenced yet is also
67% of the 1.8m sq ft is pre-let. Pre-                                                                                                                                                                                                                         pre-let, considerably above the trend in
                                                                                                                                       on whether or not all the space currently       further 145,000 sq ft at Fitzwilliam 27 is due
Covid-19 there was over 2m sq ft due                                                                                                                                                                                                                           the wider market.
                                                                                                                                       reserved closes in Q4.                          to complete by year-end.
to complete in the Dublin office market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Overall 31% of the total space in the
in 2021.                                                                                                                               Dublin 2 has on average, since 2010,            The importance of this core city centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               pipeline in Dublin 2 is pre-let.
                                                                                                                                       accounted for just over a third (35%)           area is reflected in the fact that 40% of
Five buildings completed in Q3,

                                                                        73%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               The expectation is that occupier preference
                                                                                                                                       of the space that has transacted in the         Dublin’s total office market development
amounting to just over 300,000 sq ft,                                                                                                                                                                                                                          for space in Dublin 2 will remain strong
                                                                                                                                       Dublin market each year. The ten largest        pipeline between now and the end of 2025
62% of which is pre-let.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       and continue to lead the recovery.
                                                                                                                                       deals in Dublin 2 since 2010 have totalled      is located in Dublin 2.
Buildings completed in Q3 include                                                                                                      close to 2m sq ft. This total will reach over
                                                                     of the space completed in Q3
Fitzwilliam 28, Block B, Stemple                                                                                                       2.2m sq ft if two large deals which have

                                                                                                              62%
                                                                             is in Dublin 2                                                                                                            Largest office letting deals completed and agreed in Dublin 2
Exchange, 2 Cumberland Place, Two                                                                                                      been agreed, close by the end of the year.
Clarendon Row and 50 City Quay.                                                                                                        Between them, KPMG’s agreement to take                                                                                                            S C A L E O F S PA C E
                                                                                                                                                                                           YEAR                 PROPERTY                 OCCUPIER                    SECTOR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                TA K E N
Spencer Place and The Exo Building are                                                                                                 Harcourt Square for its new headquarters
                                                                                                                                                                                            2019                2-4 Wilton Park            LinkedIn                      TMT                 400,000 plus
among the most notable buildings due                                                                          of the space completed   and Tik Tok’s agreement to occupy The
to complete in Q4, as are Fitzwilliam 27                                                                          in Q3 is pre-let     Sorting Office equate to 500,000 sq ft.              2021*             Harcourt Square*                 KPMG              Professional Services       300,000 plus
                                                                benefit from almost 630,000 sq ft of this
and One Wilton Park.                                                                                                                                                                        2021*             The Sorting Office*              TikTok                    TMT               200,000-250,000
                                                                new space. The two largest schemes -                                   Dublin 2 has been the least impacted by
                                                                                                                                                                                            2017            100 & 300 Capital Dock        Indeed.com                     TMT               200,000-250,000
                                                                Boland’s Quay and Fibonacci Square,                                    Covid-19 in terms of a fall-off in letting
OUTLOOK                                                                                                                                                                                     2019          Block 2, Charlemont Square       Amazon                        TMT               150,000-200,000
                                                                both of which are pre-let, make up 93%                                 activity, which reflects a similar trend to
Q4 is set to be a busy one for the                              of that new space.                                                     previous shocks to the market.                       2017               One Wilton Park             LinkedIn                      TMT               150,000-200,000

construction sector as developers seek                                                                                                                                                      2017            Block 1, Miesian Plaza             OPW                      State               100,000-150,000
                                                                There are only two schemes larger than                                 The area is dominated largely by
to meet new deadlines. 73% of the space                                                                                                                                                     2020                Fitzwilliam 28                 Slack                     TMT                100,000-150,000
                                                                100,000 sq ft and which are not pre-let,                               Professional and Financial services
due to complete in Q4 2021 is pre-let.                                                                                                                                                      2014              10 Earlsfort Terrace        Arthur Cox             Professional Services      100,000-150,000
                                                                due to complete in 2022 – 1 Charlemont                                 companies, some of which have
There is 1.9m sq ft in the pipeline for                         Square, Dublin 2 and Le Pole Square,                                   headquarter office buildings largely                 2017              200 Capital Dock            JP Morgan                    Finance              100,000-150,000

delivery in 2022, with Dublin 4 set to                          Dublin 8.                                                              clustered on or close to Molesworth St,              2014            5 Grand Canal Square           Facebook                      TMT                100,000-150,000

                                                                                                                                       St. Stephen’s Green, Harcourt and Hatch              2017                   EMEA HQ                 LinkedIn                      TMT                100,000-150,000

                                                                                                                                       Streets (including AIB, EY, Deloitte,
                                                                                                                                                                                       * deals agreed
                                                                                                                                       Arthur Cox and Maples). The largest
                                                                                                                                       office letting deal agreed in 2021 is the                                                         Dublin 2 take-up
                                                                                                                                       letting of Harcourt Square to KPMG for its
                             BUILDINGS COMPLETED IN Q3 2021                                                                            new headquarters.
                                                                                                                                                                                            Dublin 2        All Dublin market take-up           % Take-up in Dublin 2

                                                                                                                                                                                        4,000,000                                                                                                         80%
                                           BUILDING                                      SIZE, SQ FT                    uu
                                                                                                                                                                                        3,500,000                                                                                                         70%
                                                                                                                                                           uu
                                     FITZWILLIAM 28, DUBLIN 2                                 135,000
                                                                                                            Dublin’s office supply                                                      3,000,000                                                                                                         60%

                            BLOCK B, STEMPLE EXCHANGE, DUBLIN 15                              82,570           pipeline has been          Dublin 2 is expected                          2,500,000                                                                                                         50%

                                 2 CUMBERLAND PLACE, DUBLIN 2                                 58,000        significantly impacted         to account for the                           2,000,000                                                                                          Forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          40%

                                                                                                            by Covid-19 lockdowns        majority of total market                       1,500,000                                                                                                         30%
                                 TWO CLARENDON ROW, DUBLIN 2                                  26,000
                                                                                                                                             take-up in 2021                            1,000,000                                                                                                         20%
                                      50 CITY QUAY, DUBLIN 2                                  4,500
                                                                                                                        uu                                                                500,000                                                                                                         10%
                                                                                                                                                           uu                                      0                                                                                                      0%
     Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                            2015            2016        2017            2018         2019         2020       2021f
                                                                                                                                                                                       Source: Knight Frank Research
10                                                                                  11

INVESTMENT MARKET                                are underwritten with leases to the State with                   launched to the market in September, and
                                                 Transport Infrastructure Ireland occupying                       PWC’s headquarters in the North Docklands
€133.4 million worth of office investments       the former and the OPW the latter.                               which are guiding €395 million and €265
transacted in Dublin in Q3, bringing the                                                                          million respectively. Other assets worth
                                                 Supported by the current low interest rate
total for the first nine months of the year                                                                       noting include Flutter Entertainment’s
                                                 environment, a significant weight of capital
to €771.6 million - more or less in line                                                                          headquarters at Blocks 1-3 Founders District
                                                 is chasing opportunities in Dublin with
with the €835.1 million that was sold                                                                             and Airbnb’s headquarters at 8 Hanover
                                                 new, sustainably certified assets with strong
during the same period in 2020.                                                                                   Quay which are being sold for €105.0
                                                 covenants in the best locations high on
                                                                                                                  million and €41.5 million each, at yields of
Domestic investors accounted for 55%             the agenda. While prime yields remained
                                                                                                                  4.40% and 3.73% respectively.
of the investment spend in Q3 with the           stable at 4.00% in Q3, the sale of an asset
largest transaction being the acquisition        with the aforementioned features is likely
of Block One, Ballsbridge Park by Core           to command a yield below this level. The                                               uu
Capital for €32 million, representing a          gradual easing of restrictions throughout
                                                                                                                    While not all of these will
net initial yield of 5.40%. International        the summer has given further confidence
                                                                                                                   transact by year-end, office
investors comprised the remaining 45%            to sellers in relation to the depth and
                                                                                                                     investment volumes are
with European buyers particularly active.        transactional capacity of investors and has
                                                                                                                    expected to finish the year
Union Investment acquired Units A &              resulted in a multitude of large lot-sized
                                                                                                                   strongly, exceeding the €1.2
B, Parkgate Business Centre for €24.3            assets being brought to the market or readied
                                                                                                                     billion that transacted in
million which achieved a yield of 4.95%,         for sale which if transacted could provide
                                                                                                                  2020 and potentially reaching
while Sofidy acquired its first office asset     market evidence of yield compression.
                                                                                                                     €1.5 billion by year-end.
in the Dublin market by purchasing
                                                 These include Facebook’s new European
76-78 Harcourt Street for €21.2 million                                                                                                 uu
                                                 headquarters in Ballsbridge, which was
representing a yield of 4.33%. Both assets

             Profile of Investors                                          TOP 5 OFFICE INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS
                 by location
                                                                                                                                         PRICE
                                                               PROPERTY                       VENDOR                  BUYER                             YIELDS
                              IRISH 55%                                                                                                € MILLION

                                                       BLOCK ONE, BALLSBRIDGE                 INTRUST
                                                                                                                   CORE CAPITAL        €32,000,000       5.40%
                                                           PARK, DUBLIN 4                    PROPERTIES
                                    EUROPE 34%

                                                       BLOCKS A & B, PARKGATE                                          UNION
                                                                                             BLACKSTONE                                €24,330,000       4.95%
                                                      BUSINESS CENTRE, DUBLIN 8                                     INVESTMENT
                                                                                                                                                  2015 | £31BN
                                                        76-78 HARCOURT STREET,
                                                                                           HENDERSON PARK             SOFIDY           €21,200,000      4.33%
                                                                DUBLIN 2                                                                         2019 | £51BN

                                                                                           AVESTUS CAPITAL
                                                         P2 EASTPOINT, DUBLIN 3                                    PRIVATE IRISH       €15,000,000        7.56%
                                                                                           PARTNERS & ARES

                                                          UNITS 5 & 9, RICHVIEW                                    EAGLE STREET
                                                                                                   IPUT                                €15,000,000        9.52%
                                                              OFFICE PARK                                            PARTNERS

                                                   Source: Knight Frank Research

                                                                             Dublin office investment volumes (€ billions)

                               UK 11%                                                                                          3.1BN

    Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                                   2.1BN

          55%
                                                                                   1.9BN
                                                                                                                                                       Forecast
                                                              2020 | £58BN
                                                                                           1.4BN
                                                                                                                    1.3BN                               1.5BN
                                                      1.1BN    2025 | £71BN                                                               1.2BN

                                                                                                          0.8BN

                                                     2013          2014            2015    2016           2017      2018       2019       2020          2021f

      invested by domestic buyers                  Source: Knight Frank Research
Occupier Trends     Investment Trends   Market Outlook                              Please get in touch with us
  Dublin PRS                                                                                                              Dublin Office
                                                                                                                                                                                   knightfrank.com/research
                                                                                               knightfrank.ie/research

  Occupier Study                                                                                                          Market Overview
  Research 2021                                                                                                           Research, Q1 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Research                                                Offices
                                                                                                                          Special Focus: Key Occupier Trends of the Future

  IN ASSOCIATION WITH

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Joan Henry, Chief Economist &                           Declan O’Reilly, Director
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Head of Research                                        declan.oreilly@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                              joan.henry@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Paul Hanly, Director
Dublin PRS Occupier                                                                                                      Dublin Office Market
Study 2021                                                                                                               Overview Q2 2021                                                                     Robert O’Connor, Senior Research Analyst                paul.hanly@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                              robert.oconnor@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jim O’Reilly, Director
    Occupier Trends     Investment Trends   Market Outlook
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Capital Markets                                         jim.oreilly@ie.knightfrank.com
  Ireland
                                                                    knightfrank.com/research

  Investment                                                                                                                                                                                                  Adrian Trueick, Director                                Daniel Shannon, Director
  Market Overview
                                                                                                                                                                                                              adrian.trueick@ie.knightfrank.com                       daniel.shannon@ie.knightfrank.com
  Research, Q2 2021

  Special Focus – The rise of sustainable real estate in Dublin’s
  Office Investment Market

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Peter Flanagan, Director                                Gavin Maguire, Associate Director
                                                                                                                                       New Homes                                                              peter.flanagan@ie.knightfrank.com                       gavin.maguire@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                   Construction Survey
                                                                                                                                                             2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Ross Fogarty, Director
Dublin Investment Market                                                                                                 New Homes Construction
Overview Q2 2021                                                                                                         Survey 2021                                                                          ross.fogarty@ie.knightfrank.com

Knight Frank Research                                                                                                                                                                                         © 2021 HT Meagher O’Reilly trading as Knight Frank

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