ELECTION GUIDE MONTHLY - Solace Global
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MONTHLY ELECTION GUIDE: POLITICAL RISK
MONTHLY
ELECTION GUIDE
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JULY 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
The Mexican Presidential and Congressional elections are due to be held on 1 July. A new
president, 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, and 128 members of the Senate are due to
be elected. President Nieto is deeply unpopular and is unable to stand for re-election. The vote
Presidential
may be impacted by US-Mexico relations, which remain difficult. After the vote in 2012, there was
Mexico 01/07 and MEDIUM
widespread civil unrest and claims of electoral fraud. While there were not any reports of
Legislative
significant violence initially, Federal Police and protesters clashed as President Nieto was being
sworn in. More than 90 protestors were arrested in Mexico City and several injuries were
reported.
Pakistanis are due to elect the 342 members of the National Assembly on 25 July 2018, in their
general election. The vote comes amid a period of political instability; Nawaz Sharif resigned from
office in July 2017 after becoming embroiled in corruption charges relating to the ‘Panama
Pakistan 25/07 Legislative HIGH
Papers’. Violence was reported across Pakistan during the election seasons as terrorists attacked
a number of targets. 20 people had died in attacks on election day alone, including 10 outside a
political office in Karachi. Further violence and violent unrest should be expected in 2018.
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JULY 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
A sixth National Assembly is due to be elected on 29 July. The past few years have seen the
repression of the opposition by Prime Minister Hun Sen. Opposition leader Sam Rainsy has been
barred from running in 2018 while his deputy has been charged with treason. The government
also closed down the Cambodia Daily newspaper, which was critical of the government. There
Cambodia 29/07 Legislative HIGH was widespread national unrest in 2013-14 with electoral fraud and political corruption as the
primary reasons for demonstrations. As many as 500,000 are believed to have taken part in the
protests. It has been estimated that dozens were wounded in the unrest and four people were
killed. It is unclear if unrest will occur in 2018, especially given that Hun Sen’s opposition has
been decimated in recent years, limiting their ability to organise.
Presidential elections are due to take place in Mali on 29 July 2018. The president is elected via a
two-round system. The country has been beset by the terror threat of a local affiliate of Al Qaeda
Mali 29/07 Presidential HIGH
and a separatist insurgency. It is possible that these groups may attack polling stations and
voters. A planned referendum in 2017 also led to protests in the capital Bamako.
Comoros will vote on a constitutional referendum on 30 July. The move would allow President
Azali Assoumani, who won the last election in 2016, to run the country for two fresh five year-
terms instead of the one five-year term allowed in the constitution. If passed, the referendum
Comoros 30/07 Referendum MEDIUM
would remove a constitutional measure meant to rotate power every five years between the
archipelago’s islands. Comoros has seen more than 20 coups or attempted coups since it
declared independence from France in 1975.
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JULY 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
Zimbabwe will go to the polls to elect a new president and members of both houses of parliament
on 31 July 2018. This will be the first vote since the 2017 coup which saw the end of long -term
Presidential
ruler Robert Mugabe’s presidency. Previous elections have seen high levels of violent unrest
Zimbabwe 31/07 and HIGH
related to concerns over vote-rigging and corruption. While these elections are set to be more
Legislative
transparent than under Mugabe, indeed President Mnangagwa has invited international
observers, the potential for violence remains high.
The Togolese are due to go to the polls in local and National Assembly elections in June or July
June or Legislative 2018. 2017 was a year of widespread and violent unrest with thousands calling for the end of
Togo HIGH
July and Local President Faure Gnassingbé’s rule. Further unrest is highly likely in 2018, especially if the vote is
not allowed to occur, is delayed, or is viewed as rigged.
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AUGUST 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Sao Tome and Principe in August 2018. Previous
Sao Tome
August Legislative LOW legislative elections in 2010 and 2014 were largely free and fair and no significant disruption was
and Principe
reported.
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SEPTEMBER 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
Elections for Rwanda’s 80-member Chamber of Deputies are due to take place from 2nd to 3rd
Rwanda 02-03/09 Legislative MEDIUM September 2018. Previous elections in Rwanda have seen ethnic clashes and targeted killings of
politicians. However, the past few elections have occurred without incident.
Elections for Sweden’s national law-making assembly, the Riksdag, must be held on or before 09
September. All 349 seats need to be filled, with Sweden electing its members of parliament via a
Sweden 09/09 Legislative LOW proportional representation method. Coalition governments are usually needed to be formed after
the election and this can take some time. Protests may occur after the vote but are unlikely to be
violent.
The Maldives will elect a new president in September 2018. The country has faced a political
crisis for a number of years, which boiled over in early 2018. A state of emergency was put into
place as protesters took to the streets to protest against President Yameen’s authoritarianism.
Maldives 23/09 Presidential HIGH Yameen has attacked the judiciary after the Supreme Court ordered the release of nine political
prisoners and reinstated 12 members of parliament which would give the opposition control of the
legislature. Expect potentially deadly unrest in the build-up to and after the vote, especially if
Yameen is able to decimate the opposition or win an unfair vote.
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SEPTEMBER 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
The autonomous region of Kurdistan in Iraq will elect a new president and parliament in regional
elections on 30 September 2018. The vote was scheduled to occur on 01 November 2017 but
Presidential
Iraqi was delayed due to the fallout of the independence referendum. The region has faced an
30/09 and MEDIUM
Kurdistan economic crisis since this referendum and opposition to the establishment has grown, with new
Legislative
parties being formed. Civil servants have held regular demonstrations due to withheld pay.
Further protests are likely during and after the vote.
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OCTOBER 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
Elections for the Latvian parliament must be held before 06 October 2018. The 100 members of
the Saeima are elected by open list proportional representation from five multi-member
Latvia 06/10 Legislative LOW
constituencies. Coalition governments are often formed after elections. Violent unrest is
uncommon.
In this election, Brazilians will vote for the President and Vice President, the National Congress,
state Governors and Vice Governors and state Legislative Assemblies. The election for president
Presidential, is undertaken on a two-round system unless a candidate gains more than 50 per cent in the first
legislative, round. Since the last election, in 2014, Brazil has been beset by civil unrest and corruption claims,
Brazil 07/10 HIGH
gubernatorial, losing the elected President Dilma Rousseff due to impeachment. Her vice president and
and state successor, Michael Temer, has also had to fight against corruption claims. Violence has been
common on the streets of Brazil’s largest cities as protestors rally against economic, political, and
corruption issues.
Voters are set to elect the House of Representatives and the three-person body which constitutes
Presidential the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Despite some concerns of ethnic friction in the country,
Bosnia and
07/10 and MEDIUM elections generally remain peaceful but bitterly fought. Disruptive protests are common in the
Herzegovina
Legislative country after trials of war criminals or the return of displaced peoples. Should events of this kind
occur during the election period, violent demonstrations may occur.
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OCTOBER 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
All 60 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be elected on 14 October 2018. Deputies are
elected via an open list proportional representation system which generally leads to coalition
Luxembourg 14/10 Legislative LOW
governments forming. Coalition discussions can take some time. Any protests which do occur are
unlikely to turn violent.
Elections for the House of the People were due to be held on 15 October 2016 but were
subsequently delayed by two years. The delay has been attributed to a power-sharing deal
reached between President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah after
the 2014 presidential election. Since the parliamentary elections in 2010, militant groups have
Afghanistan 20/10 Legislative HIGH grown stronger with Islamic State, a new actor, also engaging in terror acts in Afghanistan.
Violence is likely in the election period with terror groups targeting polling stations, officials,
candidates, and voters – three candidates were killed campaigning in 2010. The vote is not
expected to be free and fair, with protests likely in the aftermath. These often turn violent or are
targeted by militants.
Presidential
The second round of the presidential and gubernatorial elections. For more, see above entry for 07
Brazil 28/10 and HIGH
October.
Gubernatorial
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OCTOBER 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
Cameroon will vote for a new President in October 2018. The President is elected via a first -past-
the-post system. Presidential strongman, Paul Biya, is eligible to run again after term limits were
removed in 2008. Violence in the Anglophone region of Cameroon escalated in 2017 and 2018,
Cameroon October Presidential HIGH
with deadly clashes between protestors and security forces reported. Further clashes are highly
likely, particularly if Biya wins another term or concessions are not made to the region and the
English speakers within it.
The last popular vote for Georgia’s president, before the 300-member College of Electors takes on
Georgia October Presidential LOW this task, will occur in October 2018. The previous elections in 2013 were judged free and fair by
observers and were met with little unrest. Any protests which do occur are unlikely to turn violent.
The Republic of Ireland will elect a new president in October 2018. The position is largely seen as
Ireland October Presidential LOW
a figurehead, with real political power held by the Dail Eireann or parliament.
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NOVEMBER 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
The 2018 mid-term elections in the United States will entail elections for all members of the
Legislative,
United Federal House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate, and numerous elections for state- and
06/11 Gubernatorial, LOW
States local-level officials, as well as elections in US territories. Protests and rallies occur frequently
and State.
around election periods, particularly in urban areas, although widespread violence is unusual.
The 102-member National People’s Assembly will be voted for on 18 November 2018. The
Guinea- country’s military conducted a coup in 2012, with the previous elections in 2014 the first since this
18/11 Legislative MEDIUM
Bissau event. The military often involves itself in the political affairs of Guinea-Bissau, especially when
leaders are not to their preference. The last elections occurred without significant unrest.
Madagascar is set to go to the polls on 24 November 2018 to elect a new president and National
Assembly. Should no presidential candidate earn a majority of the vote in the first round, a run -off
Presidential
will be held on 24 December 2018. Previous elections have seen violence and military involvement
Madagascar 24/11 and HIGH
in the vote including attempted coups. The vote in 2013 went off largely without incident. Spring
Legislative
2018 has seen serious unrest on the streets of the country, some of which has turned violent.
Violent unrest is possible in the lead up to, and in the aftermath of, the elections.
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NOVEMBER 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
Chad’s legislative elections, originally scheduled for 2015, is due to be held in November 2018. Commented [KL1]: here
The last parliamentary elections were largely free and fair, going off without significant violence.
However, in the election period for the 2016 presidential vote, opposition figures led a shutdown of
Chad November Legislative HIGH
major urban areas and alleged fraud in the outcome of the vote. Unrest has been brewing this year
in Chad over a number of issues and President Deby has been accused of ruling as a dictator. The
potential for disruption and unrest remain high.
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DECEMBER 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
Despite deep divisions throughout Libya, elections are due to be held on 10 December 2018.
Power is currently split between the UN-recognised government of Fayez al-Sarraj in Tripoli and
Libya 10/12 Parliamentary HIGH military strongmen in eastern Libya, General Haftar (as well as Islamist groups and armed militias
in some localities). The election season is highly likely to bring clashes between rival armed
groups, terror attacks, and violent unrest.
Political unrest has been frequent, disruptive, and violent since the second and final term of
The Presidential,
President Kabila expired on 20 December 2016. The elections were subsequently slated to take
Democratic Legislative,
23/12 HIGH place by the end of 2017 and have been delayed further for 23 December 2018. Further and
Republic of Regional, and
heightened levels of violence are highly likely if Kabila finds a way to cling to power or if further
the Congo Local
delays occur.
Madagascar 24/12 Presidential HIGH Potential second round of the presidential vote. See 24 November for more.
Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Mali in November or December 2018. The conduct of
November the vote may depend greatly on the presidential vote earlier in the year. The vote is conducted over
Mali or Legislative HIGH two rounds. In 2013, two election officials were abducted a week before the vote, while two days
December before the second round, two Senegalese peacekeepers were killed in a bombing in Kidal. Further
violence should be expected when the 2018 vote takes place.
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DECEMBER 2018
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
All 300 seats in the Jatiya Sangsad, the parliament of Bangladesh, will be contested in elections
which must be held before the end of 2018. Former Prime Minister and leader of the opposition,
Khaleda Zia, has been sentenced to a prison term on corruption charges which she and her
Before 31
Bangladesh Legislative HIGH supporters have labelled as being politically-motivated. Elections in 2014 were boycotted by Zia’s
December
BNP with the boycott and violent unrest leading to a turnout of only 22 per cent. At least 21 people
died on election day in 2014 after security forces fired on protesters and activists set fire to over
100 voting centres. Violent unrest and disruption are highly likely in 2018.
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FEBRUARY 2019
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
Presidential and National Assembly elections are due to be held on 16 February 2019. This would
mark the sixth election since the end of military rule in 1999. The President of Nigeria is elected
using a two-round system, with a candidate needing over 50 per cent of the national vote or over
25 per cent of the vote in two-thirds of states to win the first round outright The 360 members of the
Presidential
House of Representatives are elected using first-past-the-post voting system in single-member
Nigeria 16/02 and HIGH
constituencies, whilst the 109 members of the Senate are elected from 36 three-seat
Legislative constituencies based on the States and one single-member constituency based on the Federal
Capital Territory, also using the first-past-the-post voting system. Boko Haram is still active in the
country and attempted to disrupt the vote in 2015 by attacking voting centres; 41 people were
killed. Further violence and unrest should be expected in the 2019 voting period. The previous
elections were judged to be free and fair.
The 2019 Senegalese election will take place on 24 February with incumbent Macky Sall. Unrest
Senegal 24/02 Presidential MEDIUM was reported during the campaign for a referendum in 2016 and again in 2018 when election
system changes were proposed. Students have also been protesting this year and it is possible Commented [KL2]: here
that unrest will surround the vote
The Thai populous are expected to go to the polls in February 2019 for the first time since a
military coup d’état in May 2014. It is unclear what impact the stringent controls placed by the
February ruling junta on freedoms of speech and assembly will have on any campaigning. Thailand
Thailand Legislative MEDIUM
(expected) observers have noted divisions in the country between populists and conservatives. Protests are
possible if there is thought to have been electoral fraud or irregularities (as have blighted
Thailand’s recent history); should unrest occur it is likely to cause violence and disruption.
Elections have been delayed on multiple occasions.
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MARCH 2019
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
The 101 members of the Riigikogu, or Estonia’s parliament, are due to be elected on 03 March
Estonia 03/03 Legislative LOW
2019 via proportional representation. Coalition governments can take some time to form but unrest
is unlikely.
Before 09
Slovakia Presidential LOW Elections for the presidency of Slovakia will take place before 09 March 2019. Political power is
March held by parliament with few executive powers held by the president. Unrest is unlikely.
Elections for the presidency of Ukraine will take place on 31 March 2019. Petro Poroshenko is
likely to run again for the post, with a host of other potential candidates linking up. Ukraine is still
Ukraine 31 March Presidential HIGH
dealing with a Russian-backed uprising in the east of the country, systemic corruption, and poor
economic growth. Historically, elections have been met with sustained and sometimes violent
unrest.
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APRIL 2019
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
Presidential Indonesia will vote for a new president and parliament on 17 April 2019; President Joko Widodo
Indonesia 17/04 and MEDIUM will stand for re-election. The campaign period begins on 13 October 2018 and there will be three
days of election silence before the day of the vote. Indonesia has seen a rise in terror-related
Legislative
incidents in recent times and militant groups are likely to try to disrupt the vote.
Indians will go to the polls by April 2018 in an exercise known as the world’s greatest democracy.
India April Legislative LOW Due to the vast number of people in India and its large size, the election is held in nine phases and
may take more than a month to complete. Elections in India are disruptive, but unrest does not
routinely turn violent.
Elections for Finland’s 200-member parliament is set to take place in April 2019. Elections are
Finland April Legislative LOW
undertaken using a proportional representation system, meaning that governments can take time
to form. Unrest may occur, but it is unlikely to turn violent.
Elections for Algeria’s president are to be held in April 2019, via a two-round system. If no
candidate garners 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, a second round will take place. It is
Algeria April Presidential MEDIUM
unclear if ailing President Bouteflika will run for a fifth term. Elections in 2014 were largely peaceful
but allegations of corruption mean that unrest is possible. A persistent Islamic insurgency
movement also challenges Algeria.
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MAY 2019
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
Presidential,
Panama is set to go to the polls on 05 May 2019 to elect a new president, parliament, and mayors.
Panama 05/05 Legislative, LOW
Current President Juan Carlos Varela is barred from re-election. Elections largely remain peaceful,
and Mayoral though Varela has proposed constitutional changes which may cause unrest.
Lithuanians will go to the polls to elect a new president on 12 May 2019. Lithuania follows a unitary
Lithuania 12/05 Presidential LOW
semi-presidential form of government, meaning that power is split between the president and Commented [KL3]: here
parliament. Unrest is unlikely in the election season.
Filipino voters will go to the polls on 13 May 2019 to elect members of the Senate and House of
Philippines 13/05 Legislative MEDIUM Representatives. Previous elections in the country have seen claims of fraud and vote-rigging
which could lead to protests in 2019. Moreover, the Philippines is currently fighting an insurgency
period in the south of the country which may disrupt the election.
Presidential,
The Malawi election commission has confirmed that the elections for local government, members
Malawi 21/05 Legislative, MEDIUM
of parliament, and the president will be held on 21 May. The 2014 elections were contested as
and Local were those in 2009. Disruptive unrest is possible.
European Elections to the European Parliament will take place between 23-26 May 2019. The current 751-
23-26/05 Legislative LOW
Union member parliament will be reduced to 705 as the UK leaves the EU. European elections are
unlikely to cause unrest.
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MAY 2019
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
The 2019 federal and regional elections in Belgium will be held to coincide with the European
Federal and elections. The 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives will be elected in 11 multi-member
Belgium May LOW
Regional constituencies, being the ten provinces and Brussels, with between four and 24 seats. Seats are
allocated using the d'Hondt method, with an electoral threshold of five per cent per constituency.
Civil unrest is unlikely, but a government may take some time to form.
Elections for the South African National Assembly and provincial legislatures will be held on in or
before May 2019. The result of the National Assembly vote will determine the next South African
Legislative
South Africa May HIGH president. This marks the first vote since Jacob Zuma was forced from office. This election also
and Provincial marks the greatest threat to African National Congress rule since the end of apartheid. 2018 saw
serious unrest which caused disruption nationwide, this is likely to occur in the election period.
Violence was reported after the 2014 general election.
Lithuanians will vote for a new president in May 2019. President Dalia Grybauskaitė, the
Lithuania May Presidential LOW incumbent, cannot stand for re-election due to term limits. The election will be held over two
rounds, the second round will only be necessary if no candidate reaches 50 per cent of the vote in
the first round. Elections are unlikely to bring unrest.
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JUNE 2019
Commented [KL4]: all of June
LOCATION DATE ELECTION LIKELIHOOD OF COMMENT
TYPE UNREST
LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH
Denmark’s parliamentary elections are due to be held in June 2018. Unrest is unlikely but due to
Denmark June Legislative LOW
the nature of the election system – a form of proportional representation – governments may take
some time to form. There are concerns regarding the far-right in Denmark.
Both Guatemala’s president and Congress will be voted for in June 2019. The president is elected
Presidential via a two-round system, with the second round if no candidate receives 50 per cent of the vote to
Guatemala June and MODERATE be held in August 2019. President Morales, the incumbent, is constitutionally barred from running
Legislative for another term. Elections are generally free and fair, and largely peaceful. However, there is the
potential for the same bloodshed seen during the 2018 Mexican election campaign, where more
than 100 candidates were killed.
Mauritania’s history has been beset by political unrest and multiple coup d’états. Although the 2014
presidential vote occurred with limited violence, it was accused of not being free and fair.
Mauritania May Presidential HIGH Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz has stated that he will not be standing for a third term. However, his
meddling is likely. In 2009, clashes between security forces and militants were reported during the
election period; the same may occur in 2019. Presidents in Mauritania are elected in a two-round
system.
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DOCUMENT KEY
The potential for violence and unrest both before and after the vote is low. While protests may occur, they are generally wel l-policed and well-organised. The
Low
transfer of power is done peacefully, generally through democratic norms.
There is some potential for violence during the election period and after the vote. Violent protests may have occurred in rec ent years or during the last
Medium
elections. Freedom of speech may be tightly controlled. Unrest is expected to cause serious but localised disruption.
Violence and widespread unrest are highly likely. The lead up to the vote or previous elections may have seen violent unrest which impacted large areas of
High the country and prevented daily business dealings. Freedom of speech may be tightly controlled, and security forces are likely to be violent in cracking down
against protestors. Unrest may last for some weeks or months.
Con ta ct : + 44 ( 0 ) 12 0 2 7 9 5 80 1 S O LA C E G LO B A L . C O M Em ail sg r@ so la ceg loba l. co mYou can also read
