ELECTRIC VEHICLES: ENABLING NET ZERO CARBON BY 2050? - PHIL JONES - UOA 25/2/2020
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Electric Vehicles: Enabling Net Zero Carbon by 2050? Phil Jones - UoA 25/2/2020
The Big Picture
EVs and the zero
This emissions challenge
afternoon…
The arguments: for
and against
Conclusion
2
1. Transport in NZ: The Big Picture
How we travel (to work)…
Private vehicles – 73%
(as a passenger – 4%)
Cycle or walk – 7%
Public transport – 6.5%
Work from home – 12%
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/car-streets-ahead-for-travel-to-work-and-education
What we own…
Car ownership rate highest in OECD… and rising…
https://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Import/Uploads/Research/Documents/The-NZ-Vehicle-Fleet-Report-2018-web-v2.pdf
The impacts…
40 mins to 53 mins $ 1.3 billion p.a.
(average Auckland commute 2015-2016) (estimated cost of congestion in Auckland)
$ 7.7 billion p.a. ~400 premature deaths
(cost of imported oil in 2018 – NZ) (estimated effects of pollution from vehicles – 2002)
… and carbon emissions… Major growth area - from all road vehicle types
2. EVs and the Zero Emissions Challenge
Road transport sector is the prime opportunity
WHERE WE NEED TO GET TO…
CARBON FROM ENERGY
FOR ROAD TRANSPORT
~99.x% to 0%
(2020-2050) Technology adoption curve Focus on light vehicle fleet
An adoption pathway to 100%...
2027
EV registrations per (2029)
year to achieve 100% 50%
by 2035 (2040) 2021
(2021) 2032
2019 16% (2037)
6,929
(2.2%)
84%
2018
5,541
(1.8%)
2017
3,661
(1.1%)
2035
(2040)
100%
12Are EVs and NZ up to the
challenge?3. The Arguments: For and Against
Zero emissions by 2050: The case for…
1. The NZ Pioneers…
183
charging
stations … and the individuals buying Nissan LEAFs
~ 50% of all EVs
registered to date
https://www.transport.govt.nz/mot-resources/vehicle-fleet-statistics 2. The Visionaries…
Tony Seba: by 2030…
• All new vehicles electric
and autonomous
• Car ownership obsolete
• All new energy solar or
windNew, cost competitive technology + Business model innovation
= “Impossible for incumbent products to compete” 3. Battery costs coming down…
Now: US $155-$360/kWh
2025 (2030) Projection:
US $87 ($62)/kWh
= well below
ICE-equivalent
(TCO basis)
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/Transport offers many net benefit
emissions reductions opportunities…
https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/marginal-abatement-cost-curves-analysis-new-zealand-potential-greenhouse 4. State superstars leading the way…
http://www.ev-volumes.com/news/europe-plug-in-sales-for-2019-h1/
http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/ 5. Our natural advantage…
2018 - 84% renewable production (Up from 82% in 2017)
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-statistics-and-modelling/energy-publications-and-technical-papers/energy-in-new-zealand/ 6. And… the promise of autonomy…
“… (autonomous vehicles)
will mean for the first time
in history, mobility
freedom will be available
for everyone, everywhere.“
Really?!
https://home.kpmg.com/nz/en/home/insights/2018/02/201
8-autonomous-vehicles-readiness-index.htmlZero emissions by 2050: The case against…
1. Another curve…
Early Majority
“Want a hassle-free solution that
performs as promised.”
“Are not willing to tolerate
anxiety or doubt.”
“Are willing to purchase only
when all elements of the
requisite infrastructure are in
place.”
https://www.nap.edu/catalog/21725/overcoming-barriers-to-
deployment-of-plug-in-electric-vehicles 2. Another year older…
50%
40%
NZ – 14.1 (years) 30%
US – 11.8
20%
Australia – 10.2 10%
Canada – 9.7
0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
15-19 years 20+ years
Our light vehicle fleet is old – 36% are over 15 years old
https://www.transport.govt.nz/mot-resources/vehicle-fleet-statistics 3. Our unnatural dis-advantage…
Information labels and no RUC
for EVs - the only measures in
NZ to encourage purchase of
more fuel efficient vehicles…
Most OECD countries have
regulation &/or financial
incentives for efficient models…contributing to flat-lining CO2 emissions - 180 g/km
http://www.transport.govt.nz/research/newzealandvehiclefleetstatistics/#annual
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
…compared to 120 g/km (EU) and 143 g/km (Japan)
http://www.oecd.org/environment/environmental-pressures-rising-in-new-zealand.htm
…but, a change underway…Clean Cars - a major new policy proposal…
1. Feebate
2. Fuel Efficiency standards
Ford Ranger + $2,250
Toyota Hilux + $2,000
Hyundai Ionic - $8,000
Toyota Prius Prime - $6,800
https://www.transport.govt.nz/multi-modal/climatechange/electric-vehicles/clean-cars/ 4. Feeling the (business case) blues…
~70% of all new vehicles
are bought by
organisations
https://www.transport.govt.nz/mot-resources/vehicle-fleet-statistics/monthly-electric-and-hybrid-light-vehicle-registrations/Major challenges…
5. The auto-industry – waiting for FCEVs?
Annual publication – last Feb 2019
https://automotive-institute.kpmg.de/product-value/electric-readiness 6. There’s (more) money to be made…
Reserves value $6 trillion (as at 2013)
“Between 60-80% of coal, oil and
gas reserves of publicly listed
companies are ‘unburnable’ if the
world is to have a chance of not
exceeding global warming of 2°C.” Fortune Global 500 by revenue…
https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/unburnable-carbon-wasted-capital-and-stranded-assets/
Consistently 5 or 6 oil & gas companies in Top 104. The Verdict… Zero by 2050?
Summary of arguments… 1. NZ pioneers 1. Crossing the chasm 2. Visionaries 2. Age of fleet 3. Global leaders 3. Lack of incentives 4. Battery costs 4. Company uptake reducing 5. Commitment by 5. Renewables grid (NZ) auto-industry 6. Promise of AVs 6. Oil reserves = $$$
Conclusion: 1. Need to tick all the boxes…
Policy & Incentives Technology
Infrastructure Consumer demandConclusion: 2. To create the momentum… EV market share of 16+ % by end-2021 (latest 2025) 1. Affordable vehicles – financial incentives 2. Consumer demand – targeted marketing 3. Product availability – committed auto-industry 4. Visible charging network – good progress
Conclusion: 3. To achieve mass uptake… Moving to 50% market share by 2025-2030 1. Continuing fall in battery costs (cost equivalence well before 2030) 2. Comprehensive product availability (e.g. SUVs) 3. Global acceptance of the end of the fossil fuel era And…continuing the shift to an ultra low carbon electricity supply
Final words…
Success isn’t only
about electrifying
our vehicle fleets…
it’s offering an
integrated mix of
healthy, efficient,
zero-carbon
transport optionsAny questions?
Thank you
phil@sustainable.org.nzYou can also read
