EU Elections 2019 Factsheet - Rue d'Arlon 69 -71 1040 Brussels, Belgium www.dr2consultants.eu - Dr2 Consultants
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EU Elections 2019
Factsheet Rue d’Arlon 69 -71
1040 Brussels, Belgium
Dr2 Consultants www.dr2consultants.eu
@dr2consultants Dr2 Consultants info@dr2consultants.eu
Page 1Key conclusions
With the highest turnout of voters in the last 20 years, the outcome of the European Parliamentary elections
leaves the big centre-right and centre-left blocs in the European Parliament with a loss of their combined
majority amid an increase in support for liberals, the Greens and nationalists.
EU elections results 2019
• Initial results and exit polls show that the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the
largest bloc and is expected to form a pro-EU coalition. Although, EPP is claiming that they have won
the elections, it is not clear how future coalition with other parties would look like.
• It is expected that the EPP is likely to form a “grand coalition” with the Socialists and Democrats bloc,
with support from liberals and the Greens.
• Big discrepancies across Member States: despite initial fears about the rise of far-right and populist
anti-EU forces, including the U.K. Brexit Party, they won a combined 115 seats, however, it remains
unclear how coordinated they will be as they are currently divided into multiple groups. And Europe’s
far-right populists did not actually finish that much stronger in this election than they did in 2014.
While illiberal parties did well in France, Italy, Poland and Hungary, overall, they did no better than
expected, and in some cases worse so.
• With winning 40 seats, ALDE and En Marche scored especially well in France, UK, Romania, Spain, the
Netherlands, Germany and Czech Republic.
• The fragmented outcome will impact negotiations to fill the EU’s top jobs — including the presidencies
of the European Commission, the Council and Parliament as well as the post of high representative of
foreign affairs — will be particularly difficult.
• After Brexit, UK MEPs will leave their seats in the European Parliament and those will be redistributed
between Member States as formally agreed.
Dr2 Consultants
Brussels | The Hague | Shanghai
Page 2Political parties
European People’s Party (EPP): 179 seats
• Traditional centre-right party with pro-EU stance
• EPP remains the biggest political group, despite losing 37 seats
• Biggest delegations are Germany (29 seats), followed by Poland (18) and
Spain (12 seats)
• Future of Fidesz remains unclear
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D): 150 seats
• Traditionally centre-left bloc, predominantly pro-EU
• The biggest delegation comes from Spain (20 seats), followed by Italy (19),
Germany (17) and Romania (10)
• This is the party of the favorite candidate for the top job in the European
Commission, Frans Timmermans, who - following the outcome of the
elections - reiterated his clam to the Commission Presidency and expressed
a will to unite with progressive parties, excluding the EPP group
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE): 108 seats
• Group composed of liberal-centrists and pro-EU parties
• ALDE and French President Macron’s party, En Marche turns out to be one of
the biggest winners of the European elections 2019
• The biggest delegations are France (21 seats), the UK (15 seats), Romania
(11 seats), Spain (8) and Germany (7)
Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF): 71 seats
• Group composed of far-right parties and hard Eurosceptics
• Matteo Salvini’s Eurosceptic alliance sees a surge across the EU, with a gain
of 22 seats compared to 2014
• Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National gained 22 seats, while Italy’s Lega
won 28 seats, becoming de facto the biggest delegation in the new alliance
• The group will be the fourth biggest group in the European Parliament
Greens: 70 seats
• Composed of Europe’s green and regionalist parties
• The Greens are one of the biggest winners of the 2019 European elections,
winning 70 seats and becoming the fifth biggest group in the EP
• Leading delegation is Germany (21 seats), followed by France (12 seats),
Ireland, The Netherlands, Belgium (3 seats each), Denmark, Sweden and
Finland (2 seats each)
Dr2 Consultants
Brussels | The Hague | Shanghai
Page 3Political parties
European Conservatives and Reformist Group (ECR): 57 seats
• Right-wing who often campaign to reform the EU
• With a significant drop in their seats and the biggest defeat of the UK
Conservative Party.
European United Left / Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL): 38 seats
• Left-wing group, comprising of socialist and communist MEPs
• Despite losing 14 seats, GU might still have a decisive role to play if political
leaders from the S&D, ALDE+EN and Greens decide to opt for a progressive
alliance without the EPP
Ex EFDD (5Star Movement + Brexit Party): 44 seats
• Traditionally composed of anti-establishment Eurosceptic parties, the fate
of this group is still uncertain, especially following Brexit
?
• On one hand, former EFDD member, Five Stars Movement (5SM) gained 14
seats, but it remains to be seen whether the party will join the existing left-
wing group or will create a new group
• On the other hand, the recently formed British Brexit Party won an
overwhelming 29 seats, becoming the biggest delegation in the EP
Other parties: 36 seats
• 36 unattached MEPs will be joining the European Parliament. It remains to
be seen whether they will join an existing party or they will create a new
one.
Dr2 Consultants
Brussels | The Hague | Shanghai
Page 4Coalitions
• As a result of the European Parliamentary elections, the grand coalition between the EPP and the S&D
as it has stood since 1979 will no longer be enough. The elections have brought about a very fragmented
new European Parliament with Eurosceptic parties and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for
Europe gaining seats in comparison to 2014-2019.
• The fragmented nature of the European Parliament also has direct consequences for majority building
in the European Parliament. This will potentially slow down the pace of progress on legislation.
• Several coalition scenarios are still open:
»» Scenario 1: EPP, S&D, ALDE (435 seats)
»» Scenario 2: EPP, S&D, ALDE, Greens/EFA (504 seats)
»» Scenario 3: S&D, ALDE, Greens/EFA, GUE/NGL (“Progressive Alliance”) (363 seats - 13
»» Scenario 4: S&D, ALDE, Greens/EFA (326 seats - 50 short)
Dr2 Consultants
Brussels | The Hague | Shanghai
Page 5Timeline
2019
Romanian Presidency
May
Finish Presidency
28 May
Croatian Presidency EU Summit - analysis of
June results
Meetings of
political
20 - 21 June groups
EU Summit - nomination of
Commission President
July 2 - 4 July
Constitution of the new EP,
8 - 11 July election of its President and
15 - 18 July Constitutive meeting of appointment of Committees
Election of Commission Committees -Chair and
President by the EP Vice-Chairs elections
22 - 25 July
Final constitution of
Committees
Aug
Commission
President allocates
portfolios
Sep
New Commissioners attend
hearings at the EP
Oct
17 - 18 October
22 - 24 October EU Summit
EP votes on the new 31 October
Commission as a whole New Brexit day
Nov
1 November
New Commission takes office
(not likely)
Dec
1 December
New European Council
President takes office
12 - 13 December
EU Summit
Jan
1 January
New Commission takes office
(more likely)
2020
Dr2 Consultants
Brussels | The Hague | Shanghai
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