European Elections 2019: What the results mean - Ibec
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European Elections 2019:
What the results mean
Overview
Turnout:
EU-wide turnout for the European Parliament (EP) elections at 51% was up
from 42.6% in 2014 and 42.9% in 2009. However, voting was down in seven
countries including Ireland and the UK. While Irish turnout fell from 51.7% in
2014 to 49.7% in 2019, the overall number of voters rose by nearly 50,000
due to a rising population. Northern Ireland’s turnout dropped 6% from 2014
to just 45.14% despite its centrality to Brexit.
A fresh alliance:
The European People’s Party (EPP), where Fine Gael sit, and the Socialists
and Democrats (S&D) have been in coalition in the European Parliament
since 1979 but will now have to seek new partners after losing their
combined majority. The expected surge towards the political extremes and
further fragmentation of the EP failed to materialise and rather there was a
movement of seats towards once smaller groups such as the Greens/EFA.
An alliance between the EPP and S&D with the Alliance of Democrats and
Liberals for Europe (ALDE) - which has just been renamed ‘Renew Europe’
- and/or the Greens is anticipated. Ireland will have representation in 3 of
these 4 potential coalition groups.
Mixed Presidencies:
While the Presidencies of the Commission, Council and Parliament, in
addition to other top institutional positions, were held by the EPP in the last
Parliament, it is expected that ALDE/Renew Europe and S&D will demand
influential roles for their representatives.
Brexit MEPs:
In Ireland 13 candidates were elected, with two – the fifth candidate elected
in Ireland South (Fine Gael’s Deirdre Clune) and the fourth candidate elected
Make in Dublin (Fianna Fail’s Barry Andrews)– placed in ‘hold’ seats. Those elected
24 May into hold seats have no official status as MEPs until the UK leaves the
EU and 27 of the UK’s 73 seats are reallocated among the remaining
Your member states.
Business
Ireland in the The results leave Ireland with an almost even split
between the right and left political wings of the EP, with
European Parliament no MEPs sitting in long-time coalition partners S&D, the
conservative ECR or the far-right groups ENF and EFDD.
Fine Gael (FG) achieved the largest number of seats Irish and EU-wide MEPs before and after Brexit
at 5 and share of first preferences at 29.6%. Mairead
McGuinness was the first MEP elected in Ireland, topping
Pre-Brexit Pre-Brexit Post-Brexit Post Brexit
the poll in Midlands-Northwest. Seán Kelly also topped the
Irish Party Groups Irish MEPs Party Groups
poll in South. Other elected FG candidates include Frances
MEPs
Fitzgerald (Dublin), Maria Walsh (Midlands-Northwest) and
Deirdre Clune (South), who must wait until the UK leaves FG 4 EPP 179 FG 5 EPP 182
the EU to take a seat. Fine Gael MEPs are members of the (plus one)
centre-right European People’s Party, the largest group
FF 1 ALDE/Renew FF 2 ALDE/Renew
with 179 seats. Mairead McGuinness returns as the EP’s
Europe 106 (plus one) Europe 94
First Vice-President and is mentioned as a contender the
for the next President of the European Parliament. GP 2 Greens/EFA 75 GP 2 Greens/EFA 63
Fianna Fáil (FF) had 2 MEPs elected with 16.5% of first SF 1 GUE/NGL 38 SF 1 GUE/NGL 37
preference votes. Billy Kelleher (South) becomes a MEP Ind. 3 GUE/NGL 38 Ind. 3 GUE/NGL 37
immediately, while Barry Andrews (Dublin) must wait until
UK leaves the EU to take a seat. FF are expected to sit
within the ALDE/ Renew Europe group, now including the
23 MEPs of French President Emmanuel Macron. UK in the European
The Green Party elected 2 MEPs after having no MEPs
from 2014-2019. Ciarán Cuffe topped the poll in Dublin
Parliament
and Grace O’ Sullivan took the fourth of five seats in the
South constituency. This follows a ‘green wave’ trend in The UK had been expected to leave the EU in advance of
the European elections which saw 29 Greens elected in the European elections but due to the extension of their
Germany and the alliance of Greens in the EP return 75 membership they returned 73 MEPs who will sit in the
MEPs in 2019, up from 52 in 2014. Parliament until the country formally exits.
The Conservatives and Labour, the UK’s main political
Irish Party European Group No. of parties, lost ground to the Liberal Democrats and the
MEPS Brexit party. The Conservatives saw their seat share in the
EPP 5 EP fall from 19 in 2014 to 4 while opposition party Labour
Fine Gael
won 10 seats, down 10 from 2014.
Fianna Fáil ALDE/Renew Europe 2
The largest share of seats at 29 was achieved by the pro-
Green Party Greens/EFA 2
leave Brexit Party, led by Nigel Farage, formerly of UKIP,
Sinn Féin GUE/NGL 1 which returned 24 in 2014.
Independents GUE/NGL 3 The pro-remain Liberal Democrats won the second highest
share of votes and will sit with ALDE/ Renew Europe, who
Sinn Féin had one candidate elected in Midlands- are likely to form a coalition with the EPP and S&D.
Northwest, losing two MEPs - one in Dublin and one
in South - from the 2014-2019 term. Matt Carthy MEP Overall in the UK, non-government pro-remain parties took
will return to GUE/NGL. He will be joined by Sinn Féin’s 40.4% of the vote while non-government pro-leave parties
Martina Anderson, who received the highest share of first took 34.9% of the vote. The devolved regions all elected at
preferences in Northern Ireland, but she will give up her least one pro-remain or pro-second referendum MEP, with
seat when the UK leaves the EU. Northern Ireland electing two pro-remain MEPs and one
leave MEP.
Independents: Three independent candidates were
elected, as in 2014, including MEP Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan
in Midlands-Northwest and first-time MEPs Clare Daly
in Dublin and Mick Wallace in South, both of the Dáil’s
left-wing Indepedents4Change group. Clare Daly and Mick
Wallace are expected to sit within GUE/NGL joining Luke
‘Ming’ Flanagan and Matt Carthy.UK Party European Group No. Of MEPs Number of seats won by
European Parliament group
The Brexit Party EFDD 29 43
Liberal Democrats ALDE/Renew Europe 16 106
Labour S&D 10 153
Greens Greens/EFA 7 75
Conservatives (Tory) ECR 4 61
SNP Greens/EFA 3 75
Plaid Cymru Greens/EFA 1 75
Sinn Féin GUE/NGL 1 38
DUP NI 1 9
Alliance ALDE/ Renew Europe 1 106
European Parliament: The 2019-2024 EP will be composed of 63% first-time
MEPs and 37% incumbents. Fresh MEPs comprise 62%
2019-2024 of Ireland’s new delegation, 52% of Germany’s, 73% of
France’s and 70% of the UK’s.
The EPP remains the largest group at 179 seats and Most likely majority configurations
the S&D remain the second largest group at 153 seats. post-Brexit
However, the previous Parliament’s absolute majority
coalition of the EPP and S&D lost 70 seats. EPP + S&D + ALDE = 60% majority
EPP + S& D + Greens/EFA = 56% majority
ALDE/Renew Europe, won 106 seats up from 69 seats EPP + S& D + ALDE & Greens/EFA = 69% majority
in the previous Parliament, which includes newly aligned
Macron’s En Marche who secured 23 seats. The Greens/ After Brexit the EPP will remain the largest party, rising to
EFA won 75 seats following a significant movement of 182 seats while the seat shares of their potential coalition
seats to the Greens in several countries including Ireland. partners S&D, ALDE/Renew Europe and the Greens/EFA
This means ALDE/Renew Europe and the Greens/EFA are will decline by minor amounts. The most likely coalition
in a position to get the EPP and S&D over the line to form possibilities will not change too significantly with the
a majority. Greens/EFA slightly narrowing their seat percentage gap
on ALDE/Renew Europe.
Most likely majority configurations
pre-Brexit The ‘populist’ right and left will both decline post-Brexit,
the most significant change of which is the departure of
EPP + S&D + ALDE/Renew Europe = 58% majority the Brexit Party.
EPP + S&D + Greens/EFA = 53% majority
EPP + S&D + ALDE/Renew Europe + Greens/EFA =
2014 2019 2019
67% majority
(outgoing) (pre-Brexit) (post-Brexit)
The most likely majority coalitions leave the MEP EPP 216 179 182
representatives of the Italian, Polish and UK governments
sitting in outsider political groups. On the right, the Europe S&D 185 153 148
of Nations and Freedom (ENF) group has morphed into ALDE/ 69 106 94
Identity & Democracy (ID), now the fifth largest bloc with Renew
73 seats from nine countries including France’s Le Pen Europe
and Italy’s Salvini. At this time, it is still unclear where
Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party will sit. On the far left, Greens/EFA 52 75 63
GUE-NGL fell from 52 to 38. ECR 77 61 61
ID 36 73 60
EFDD 42 43 25
GUE/NGL 52 38 37
Others/NI 20 33 35What happens next?
June: September-October:
Majority coalitions are discussed and MEPs are Hearings of nominated Commissioners by respective
assigned roles on European Parliament committees. EP Committees.
20/21 June: 17/18 October:
European Council agrees nomination of next Commission EU leaders discuss nomination for next European
President designate and discuss priorities for next Council President.
policy cycle.
23 October:
3 July: EP Plenary: Final vote endorsing all Commissioners
Confirmation of new EP President and committee and Commission President.
formations during the EP’s first plenary.
1 November:
17 July: New President of the European Central Bank
Commission President-designate addresses the formally takes office.
EP during second Strasbourg plenary.
4 November:
August: New Commission formally takes office.
27 nominated Commissioners and President-designate
study their portfolio files and meet with respective 2 December:
DGs and senior officials. Nominated Commissioners New Council President formally takes office.
assemble cabinets.
Find out more about
the European Parliament
and how its decisions
impact your business.
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