EXECUTING THE COVID-19 RECOVERY - A guide for governments for reopening and restoring their economies - Deloitte
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EXECUTING THE COVID-19 RECOVERY A guide for governments for reopening and restoring their economies April 2020
Contents 3 Executive Summary 4 The Challenge 11 Key recovery actions 13 - Balance actions to limit disease spread and economic impact 19 - Promote economic health for individuals, businesses and sectors 27 - Reopen the economy for a better future 41 Managing the recovery process: Coordinated execution 53 Looking ahead Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Executive Summary
The Challenge Managing the recovery process
Governments are on the front line of the COVID-19 crisis. In the Governments not only need to manage the health crisis and the
coming months, they will be focused on the following steps as we economic crisis, they need to do so in light of drastic reductions in
move through recovery and beyond. revenue, surging demand, and the need to restart public agencies in
a manner that is safe for both public employees and constituents.
Balance health and economic impact
The economic recovery will depend on a healthy population. What do regions The “Next Normal”
need to do in terms of testing, health system capacity and the development of
vaccines and treatments? We have seen how critical data, digital workflows, and agility has
been in responding to this crisis. As we move ahead, governments
Promote economic health for individuals, businesses and sectors should reexamine their basic operating system. From public transit
How can government best provide support to those affected by the economic to schools, governments should reexamine operations, service
shutdown? Federal assistance will help, but states, regions, and cities will need delivery, workforce and safety issues as it sequences the reopening
to execute. of government offices. This is an opportunity for governments to
Reopen the economy for a better future
adopt new tools to enable them to better serve the people.
Consensus is calling for a phased reopening, with timing dictated by health
science. How might regions execute such a reopening?
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 3THE CHALLENGE Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
THE CHALLENGE
Governments must take action on three fronts to
address the COVID-19 crisis
How do we address the How do we address How do we keep “the business”
health care crisis? the economic crisis? of government operating?
Any given government agency may be involved with one, two, or all three fronts. For instance, a transit agency may limit ridership,
enforce social distancing, and regularly disinfect vehicles while monitoring employee health. Later, the agency may play a part in
the recovery by spending stimulus money on upgrading infrastructure.
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 5THE CHALLENGE
Governments are starting to move into the recover
and thrive phases
The figure models the COVID-19 crisis over time across the three overlapping phases
governments will pass through: Respond, Recover, and Thrive
Pre-COVID-19 RESPOND RECOVER THRIVE
PHASE New norm is set; improvement
from pre-COVID-19 level
“You don’t make
the timeline; the
Level of
flexibility and
virus makes the
speed in
government
timeline.”
─Dr. Anthony Fauci
1 2 3 4 5 ~4-66 months
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 TIME
15
~10-18 months
Act to promote safety and continuity Restore and emerge stronger Prepare for the next normal
• Focus on essentials • Move toward normalcy • Build long-term enhancements to the public sector
• Offer maximum flexibility • Offer high flexibility • Establish a better foundation for the future
• Use maximum speed • Use high speed • Create a new level of flexibility
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Note: These timelines may change Source: Governments' response to COVID-19 6THE CHALLENGE
Governments are being “squeezed” from
multiple directions
Governments are facing Health sector at risk
Economic shutdown
revenue shortfalls and
simultaneous surging High unemployment and Concerned
Government
demands for services. As social pressures workforce
they look to reopen the
economy, they will also be Challenges of
Local government and higher
restarting many of their education fiscal crises reopening
government
own operations under new, operations
post-COVID-19
Revenue shortfalls
conditions—no easy task.
High demand for
curtailed government
services
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 7THE CHALLENGE
Forecasts show strong economic headwinds
Depending on policies, business activity and consumer spending recovery could take
different shapes and forms
Real GDP growth in 2020* Mild Economic Case
1
Economic activity rebounds in late 2020 as the virus
United European dissipates. Recovery initially slow, but speeds up in second
China Japan
States Union half of 2021 as consumers become more confident.
Mild 2 Harsh Economic Case
-5% -5% 3% 0%
Economic Case The virus follows a wave pattern, abating and then peaking
again in multiple global geographies. Economic recovery
begins late 2021. Recovery slow in early 2022 and speeds
up by second half of 2022.
Harsh -8% -8% 1% -3%
Economic Case
3 Severe Economic Case
The epidemic continues with severe infection rates into
2021until either crowd immunity and/or a vaccine reduces
Severe
-10% -10% -3% -6% the virality. Economic recovery by mid-2022. Significant risk of
Economic Case cascading outbreaks with feedback loops, limiting recovery.
*Scenarios as of April 6, 2020
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Source: Deloitte COVID-19 Economic Scenarios For details read: Deloitte COVID-19 Economic Scenarios 8THE CHALLENGE
A strong recovery depends on societal attitudes
Citizen concerns and confidence are part of the terrain of any recovery
Rising fear of catching Concerns around job Concerns around Concerns around government’s
the disease i loss ii social gatheringiii handling of the disease iv
of Canadians are very or workers in the UK are of respondents from China of people in Spain feel that
somewhat scared that they expected to be mentioned that they would eat their government is
might contract COVID-19 11 furloughed at home more often than they handling the disease well or
69% Million 86% 38% somewhat well
used to before the pandemic
Consumers not Lower Incomes vi Stunted business Reopening
willing to spend v investments vii too soon viii
of people say they
of people would reduce expect their income this of Indian businesses plan to of Americans are
spending to prepare for year to be lower, further defer their expansion plans for concerned that the US
41% future crises, according 68% dampening consumer 66% more than 6 months and 33% 66% may lift the
to a survey in China appetite, according to a plan to defer for more than 12 restrictions too soon
survey in China months
Sources: 1 Brunswick; ii Express UK; iii Nielsen; iv YouGoV; v Quartz; vi Quartz vii Economic Times viii Pew Research
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 9THE CHALLENGE
Governments will have a central role in this recovery
Health Care – Focus in the Economy – Focus in the
Respond Phase Recover Phase
• Severity of pandemic and pattern GOVERNMENT’S COVID-19 ACTIONS • Reopening economy balanced
of disease progression against public health
• Effectiveness of policies and • Industries and sectors
protocols
• Protection of the public and
support of the healthcare system
Geography Timing Policy and
(statewide vs. Protocols Economic Impact
select regions)
Health Care Impact
Recover → Thrive Transition
Resilience and Growth – Focus in the
Thrive Phase
Demand
• Promoting resilience in both the
government and the private economy
Pre-COVID-19 Demand Levels
• Prevention of future risk
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 10KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 11
KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS
Governments will need to take actions on various
fronts to support the economic recovery
Key actions for the economic recovery
Balance actions to limit disease Provide relief for individuals, Re-open the economy
spread and economic impact businesses and sectors
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 12KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS Balance actions to limit disease spread and economic impact Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 13
KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Balance actions to limit disease spread and economic impact
Governments are wrestling with balancing
health and economic impacts
Leaders will have to determine what is optimal for their regions
Recovery on the health and economic fronts is
intertwined: Until people can gather in groups to
work, travel, and shop, any economic recovery will likely
be limited (see figure). How do we speed recovery while
limiting risk? When do we relax the rules? What
restrictions should be imposed on businesses and
individuals? Should these restrictions differ by area and
by industry?
Reoccurrence is likely to be patchy. This could mean
that a second wave may not be as severe as the
current one but may spike in a few geographic areas
and could also be seasonal in some cases.
Source: Governments' response to COVID-19
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 14KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Balance actions to limit disease spread and economic impact
There will be critical choices along the journey and
governments will need to monitor progress and adapt
Potential COVID-19 Path for Region A Potential Relevant Response Milestones & Choices (Illustrative)
1 Cases are declining consistently across geographies
KEY
All public health pre-requisites are met:
Milestone Choice 2 • sufficient supplies at surge capacity
• minimized risks for vulnerable populations
1 • preventative measures for workplaces
• reduced importation risks
CHOOSE to decrease restrictions on some non-essential services (e.g. personal care, fitness
3
centers, etc.)
Public Health Impact
4 Mass viral and serology testing available
2
10 CHOOSE to increase public health departments staff to continue widespread contact tracing
5 and testing
6 CHOOSE to decrease some restrictions on social and economic activity (e.g., reopen schools)
3 9 CHOOSE to fast-track limited release of vaccine to healthcare workers (impact depends on
7 vaccine efficacy and participation)
11
8 8 Cases begin to rise with second wave of infections
4
Potential
9 CHOOSE to implement targeted increase in restrictions on economic and social activity
5 6 7 second
wave of CHOOSE to make vaccine available for broader population (impact depends on vaccine
10
infections efficacy and participation)
Time
11 CHOOSE to decrease restrictions on social and economic activities for vaccinated population
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 15KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Balance actions to limit disease spread and economic impact
Non-linear path to emerge from the crisis better
prepared for the future
Responses to the COVID-19 crisis require iterative approaches to addressing the health
threat, transitioning out of the crisis and rebuilding health, economic, and social systems
Addressing Today’s Crisis Building Resiliency for Tomorrow
Transition Thrive
Take actions to remediate impacts of crisis Improve health, economic, and
Relax response interventions as crisis
social resiliency
is contained
Learn & Evolve Recover
Integrate learnings to adjust Return to health, economic,
capabilities in the future and social status quo
Respond
Take actions to contain the crisis
Regress A region’s integration
Increase response interventions if of learnings influences
virus reemerges
See degradation in heath, its ability to respond
economic, and social systems to future crises
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 16KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Balance actions to limit disease spread and economic impact
Testing capabilities have grown but more progress is needed
Number of tests per day COVID-19 testing has been largely limited
350,000 to symptomatic cases and impacted
groups only due to barriers in raising
300,000
testing capacity. Wider testing on a mass
250,000 Italy scale is needed to better understand the
United States disease.
200,000
Canada
United Kingdom
In addition to testing for the disease,
150,000
Australia
increasing serological tests/testing for
100,000 South Korea
antibodies to indicate exposure and
Austria
immunity and contact tracing will be
50,000
critical to reopening the economy.
Denmark
- Successful antiviral or plasma treatments
and vaccines will be crucial for long-term
1-Apr-20
3-Apr-20
5-Apr-20
7-Apr-20
9-Apr-20
11-Apr-20
13-Apr-20
15-Apr-20
17-Apr-20
19-Apr-20
21-Apr-20
23-Apr-20
25-Apr-20
27-Apr-20
16-Mar-20
25-Feb-20
27-Feb-20
29-Feb-20
2-Mar-20
4-Mar-20
6-Mar-20
8-Mar-20
10-Mar-20
12-Mar-20
14-Mar-20
18-Mar-20
20-Mar-20
22-Mar-20
24-Mar-20
26-Mar-20
28-Mar-20
30-Mar-20
recovery efforts.
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Source: Our world in data 17KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Balance actions to limit disease spread and economic impact
Contact tracing will be key to limiting the
spread of the disease
Contact tracing elements
Proximity Tracking Contact/Call Center Contact Tracers Network Analysis & Advanced
Analytics
A network of information on A range of customer support is Acquisition of contact tracers
individuals’ mobility to trace needed, including telephony and specialized call center Network analysis can provide
contacts based on self opt in for support, agents, chatbot & voice to talent, including community public health officials insights
public use, and for employers. text, and multi-language support. heath professionals, will be to guide strategy and policy.
needed in many jurisdictions.
An integrated approach to
Case Management Application Programming Interface Public Sentiment & Trust contact tracing would trace
(API) Integration Campaign
Would enable regional, local and COVID-19 contacts through
public health organizations to Governments will need the ability Governments need the ability
automated case
collect information on tracking, to securely exchange information to understand customer
and conduct follow-up; also and provide reporting and experience and analyze management and data
allows users to report and receive integration with existing disease sentiments toward the region’s analytics by public health
follow-up guidance. surveillance and health data COVID-19 contact tracing entities, community partners
systems and third party providers. efforts. and government agencies
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 18KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS Promote economic health for individuals, businesses and sectors Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 19
KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Promote economic health for individuals, businesses and sectors
Governments have several ways to boost the economy
Governments need to focus on three areas when it comes to promoting economic health
Stimulating economic activity
• Promote spending
• Reducing barriers to economic
activity Getting individuals
back to work
• Minimize further job
losses and promote
job creation
Assisting distressed
businesses
• Work to stabilize, then
advance business health
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 20KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Promote economic health for individuals, businesses and sectors
Stimulating economic activity
Use the broad power and resources of the government to foster business growth
and reduce growth-impairing constraints. Encourage individuals and businesses to
resume personal spending and business investment to re-start economic “engine”
of the region.
Maximize federal funding. Designate a team to Expedite permit approvals. Expedite approvals for
maximize region’s receipt of federal funding. construction permits not creating high risk to health,
safety, or the environment.
Use rainy day funds strategically. Use the funds to
promote business growth and hiring. Extensions for professional licenses. Consider
streamlined extensions for authorized professional
Tax credits to incentivize hiring. To promote licenses, except those health-related or others with
investment and immediate hiring, consider one-time, higher risk to public safety.
time-limited tax credit options to incentivize new
employment or immediate business expansion. Relax regulations. Relax regulations to reduce burden
of compliance on businesses which would help
Review timeline for proposed construction projects businesses focus on recovery.
under existing bonds issuance of the transportation
department, including greater focus on “shovel ready”
projects as a key criteria.
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 21KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Promote economic health for individuals, businesses and sectors
Countries are taking several measures to stimulate economic
activity
Australia Canada Germany
• The Higher Education Relief Package will • The Canada Emergency Business Account (CEBA) is • Germany has announced an economic
support workers displaced by the providing interest-free loans of up to CAD 40,000 to stabilization fund of EUR 600 billion for
COVID-19 crisis to upskill or retrain, and businesses and not-for-profits to help cover costs distressed businesses.
support universities and other higher due to reduced demand. • Through the newly created economic
education providers to continue
• The temporary expansion of the Canada Summer stabilization fund (WSF) and the public
teaching. development bank KfW, the government is
Jobs (CSJ) program to support the youth employment
• In the Australian capital territory, an is planned. This would enable employers to adapt expanding the volume and access to public loan
immediate expenditure of AUD 20 their projects and job activities to support essential guarantees for firms of different sizes and credit
million on infrastructure projects and services, such as hiring youth to deliver meals from insurers.
maintenance on local schools, roads, food banks to the vulnerable population. • It announced increased financial support of EUR
and public transport has been planned.
• Provincial governments have loosened rules around 500 million ($540.88 million) for schools and
• Small businesses in South Australia borrowing and debt and extended financial pupils to boost e-learning and digitalization.
have been given AUD 5,000 to hire deadlines to give municipalities more access to cash • Germany is temporarily lowering the tax burden
trainees and apprentices to boost local to deal with the fallout from the pandemic. for the catering industry through a reduced VAT
jobs. rate of 7 percent for food and to give tax relief for
small companies.
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Sources: Deloitte internal analysis, Canada Emergency Business Account, International Monetary Fund, Aljazeera, Department of 22
Education, Skills and Employment, Australia, ReutersKEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Promote economic health for individuals, businesses and sectors
Assisting distressed businesses
Seek to reduce business failures, mitigate further business disruption,
then provide growth-oriented support
Consider establishing a business recovery Shift focus of economic development agencies to
center to help local companies gain streamlined recovery. Shift business attraction resources to
access to business support, technical assistance or recovery, retention, and job-growth of industries.
government assistance. Partner with business
associations to streamline dissemination of Conduct an industry/sector assessment. By
information and direct business to appropriate analyzing various sectors of the economy against their
assistance programs. level of COVID-19 vulnerability, governments can provide
more precise guidance than just “essential vs. non-
Use data to identify the hardest-hit sectors and essential” designations. Such an assessment could
regions. Data-driven analysis can identify where include the likelihood of widespread transmission, ability
support is most needed. to mitigate against such transmission, and so forth,
informing reopening decisions.
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 23KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Promote economic health for individuals, businesses and sectors
Government measures to assist distressed businesses
Australia Canada United Kingdom
• The government announced the JobKeeper wage subsidy • The Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) • The UK government introduced the Coronavirus
program in April 2020. Under the JobKeeper Payment, businesses was established to help employers retain their Job Retention scheme for eligible employers to
and not-for-profits significantly impacted by the Coronavirus staff on the payroll. cover the wages of employees who are temporarily
outbreak will be able to access a wage subsidy of AUD 1,500 per not working due to COVID-19 but are still on the
fortnight per employee until September 2020 from the • To provide additional support to small and company's payroll. Also, the COVID-19 self-
government. medium enterprises, the Business employment income support scheme for eligible
Development Bank of Canada (BDC) and self-employed individuals.
• Cash flow support to businesses: Eligible businesses and not-for- Export Development Canada (EDC) are working
profits (NFP) will receive between AUD 20,000 to AUD 100,000 in with lenders in the private sector to organize • Businesses that occupy a property with a “rateable”
cash flow boost amounts by lodging their activity statements up credit solutions for individual businesses in value of under GBP 15,000 will receive a cash grant
to the month or quarter of September 2020. sectors such as oil and gas, air transportation, of GBP 10,000.
exports and tourism.
• For small businesses to retain their trainees and apprentices, the
government introduced wage subsidy measures where they will • To assist businesses in the regions impacted by Germany
be reimbursed up to a maximum of AUD 21,000 per eligible COVID-19, the government is making CAD 15
trainee or apprentice. billion available in non-repayable support. • The government established a EUR 50 billion
• In the state of Victoria, the government has introduced a hotline immediate assistance program ("Soforthilfe") to
for businesses dealing with challenges posed by the COVID-19 support small businesses, freelancers, and the self-
outbreak, to provide information about support services, to help employed.
them develop business continuity and recovery plans and access
• A short term working scheme “Kurzarbeitergeld”,
financial support available through the national stimulus package.
covers 60-87 percent of the forgone wages of
workers whose hours are cut.
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Sources: Canada economic response plan, , Deloitte’s COVID-19 Government Response Portal, 24
Department of Treasury, Australia, Australian Taxation Office, Plant LaborKEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Promote economic health for individuals, businesses and sectors
Getting individuals back to work
Minimize further loss in employment, while taking actions to promote job
creation and matching displaced workers to in-demand sectors
Implement fast track program focused on Promote in-demand employment opportunities.
displaced workers from COVID-19 crisis, focused on Use press briefings and other “free media” to promote
connecting individuals with transferable skills to accelerated workforce development programs and
near-term, in-demand positions (e.g., healthcare, employment opportunities.
e-commerce/distribution, food processing).
Program should be aligned to greatest impacts and Focus on reskilling to help workers navigate the
needs in each unique region. disruptions caused by technology advancements and
shifts in employer demands.
Accelerate certifications program for in-
demand positions. Leverage best, “off the shelf”
programs of community colleges, employers, labor
associations, etc., to advertise and make certificate
programs available rapidly and at scale.
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 25KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Promote economic health for individuals, businesses and sectors
Reskilling to help workers navigate the
disruptions caused by COVID-19
Reskilling will be critical in the post Government’s reskilling “Toolkit”
COVID-19 economy to – According to the
International Labor
Retrain workers to deal with surges Data-driven approach: Analyze data to understand how
Organization (ILO), the
in overloaded areas industries are reacting to COVID-19. Which occupations
are expanding and which ones are contracting? COVID-19 crisis is
Prepare unemployed workers for already affecting 3.3
industries that see a high demand Build partnerships: Develop deep partnerships with billion workers globally,
for talent companies/industries that are expanding hiring and tailor that’s more than 4 out of
programs to meet employer needs 5 in the world workforce.
Help workers adapt to digital workspaces
Target the right segments: Provide wraparound
support to challenged population segments such as single Furthermore, the crisis is
parents, older workers and the physically challenged who expected to wipe out
may have more employment opportunities due to almost 6.7 percent
increases in telework across different occupations working hours,
equivalent to 195 million
Act as a connector: Connect employers, philanthropies
jobs in the second
and other stakeholders to build a workforce information
system that reduces information gaps between various quarter of 2020.
participants
Sources: ILO; Closing the talent gap, Deloitte
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 26
* As of April 16, 2020KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS Reopen the economy for a better future Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 27
KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
The “shutdown” was abrupt …
but the restart will be in phases
Beginning Jan 2020 Within a few months…
Dozen cases of pneumonia from an WHO declared the outbreak a global public health
unknown cause in Wuhan, China emergency as more than 9,000 cases were reported
worldwide, including in 18 countries beyond China on Jan 30
Chinese citizens all set to rack up to 3 Several countries including China, South Korea,
billion trips to ring in the Chinese New Singapore and Italy instituted an international travel There is more to restarting
Year ban. the economy than merely
reopening businesses. This
In April 2020, the International Labour Organization (ILO)
Global unemployment stood at 190 predicts 6.7 percent working hours to be wiped out, isn’t about flipping a
million equivalent to 195 million jobs in the second quarter of switch. It’s about building
2020 and executing a plan that
People across the globe come will include transitional
As of March 31, more than one-third of world
together to ring in the new year stages, and will involve
population is under some form of lockdown
health, business, education
and government sectors.
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Sources: Worldometer; United Nations; NBC News; Bloomberg; Brookings; Business Insider, ILO 28KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
Governments will have an unprecedented number of
roles to play in restarting the economy
How government leaders communicate While restarting businesses is important, Government is a large and diverse Schools, daycare, and social services to
about the restart will be critical restarting government services will be employer free up workers
equally critical
• There is a need to douse fears and instill • The public sector will also employ some • Many workers rely on public entities to
confidence in people. It won’t matter if • From transportation to licensing, kind of phased reopening educate and care for their children and
stores are open if no one will go outside government activities support and enable sick relatives so they can go to work
• The safety of workers and those with
economic activity
• Regions should seek inputs from industry whom they interact will be key
associations to develop a plan
Communicator
Government as a communicator will provide clear, Government as an employer will have to ensure
consistent and adequate communication to all involved staff safety, redeployment and retraining of staff to
in the recovery process. quickly recover.
Enforcer Employer
Government as an enforcer will be in charge of Government as a service provider will have to
making sure protocols are followed and inspections rethink delivery of services and create the necessary
are conducted. Designer Service provider infrastructure.
Government
Government as a designer will draw out the initial
plan, lay down the protocols and guidelines needed
to reopen. Government will have to wear many hats
Source: Deloitte
and juggle many responsibilities
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 29KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
Reopening is a complex task that
may shift as circumstances evolve
Massive complexity with a huge number of intertwined issues and efforts
Limited resources already spread thin with core government operations
• Reopening is one of the
most important events in
recent history
Short, and constantly shifting, timeframe
• Governments are at the
center of a complex and
highly unpredictable set Facts on the ground and medical advancements are constantly changing
of facts
Many layers and parts of government engaged and interacting
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 30KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
Some countries have begun to reopen
When and how countries reopen will be unique due to geographic, demographic,
economic, and health factors
Confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people (as of April 28, 2020)
"We mustn’t allow ourselves for
one second to be lulled into a
false sense of security. The
impact of the gradual
reopening will be visible only in
two weeks. We mustn’t forget
that we’re still at the beginning
of this pandemic.”
─ Angela Merkel,
Chancellor of Germany
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Sources: European CDC, Our World in Data, The Wall Street Journal 31KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
Reopening is a multi-dimensional challenge requiring real-time,
data-driven decision making
Illustrative region reopening plan
TIMING
WHEN TO RE-OPEN?
POLICY &
GEOGRAPHY PROTOCOL
WHERE TO HOW TO
RE-OPEN? RE-OPEN?
INTERCONNECTED CHOICES
Informs
INDUSTRIES & CITIZEN
SECTORS GROUPS
WHAT TO FOR WHOM
RE-OPEN? TO RE-OPEN? virus at a higher rate
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 32KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
Governments will need to define and monitor
triggers appropriate to their circumstances
Successfully operationalizing indicators will bring its own challenges
Governments will need
Some examples
to be monitoring
Symptoms Resources triggers in real time for
• Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) • Contact tracing protocols
reported within a 14 day period • Hygiene protocols for public spaces an early warning at a
• Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases • Supply of PPE, swabs and medical equipment granular level for
reported within a 14 day period
decision making. They
Testing Cases
might need to consider
• Testing capacity • Downward trajectory of documented cases within a other variables that deal
• Serological and antibody testing 14-day period
• Downward trajectory of severe cases requiring with interdependencies
hospitalization
in their region and also
Hospital capacity
• Ability to treat all patients without crisis care pick the right triggers for
• Robust testing plan in place for at-risk healthcare
workers, including emerging antibody testing
their industries.
Source: Deloitte
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 33KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
Different triggers: Lessons from other
countries on reopening the economy
Key health data triggers
Austria South Korea Germany
• Cases: 1,600 per million • Tests performed: More than 610,000 • Excess health care capacity: 12,000+ ICUs vacant
• Hospitalization: Only 25 percent of the country’s ICU • Positivity rate (% of people found to be positive in • R0 (one person infecting other person): 0.9
capacity was used tests): 1.8 percent • Lowering of mortality rate
• Days taken to double the rate of infections: Two weeks • Anti-body tests: Plan for mass testing of anti-bodies as
• Testing per million: 10,862
economy reopens
Lesson: Reopen the economy once health Lesson: Aggressive testing and tracing of Lesson: Reopen the economy if health care
care capacity can accommodate existing and individuals so that positive and symptomatic capacity can accommodate new cases and
new cases and the growth of new cases has cases can be quarantined, and economic R0 is below 1. Launch large-scale antibody
slowed down considerably. activity can be continued in non-hotspots. tests to assess infection rates and monitor
South Korea did not implement nation-wide the spread.
lockdown.
* The impact of reopening in these countries will be known only in the future
Sources: Foreign Policy; Ministry of Health and Welfare, Korea, Business Insider; Robert Koch Institute
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 34KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
Risk stratification: Analyzing different
types of risk Advanced analytics to guide decision-making
Community risk metrics
PEOPLE RISK – BASED ON WHO YOU ARE Aggregating a variety of “signals” from traditional and non-
• Susceptibility risk - Some populations are much more likely to suffer severe symptoms from the traditional sources to understand the relative risks in a
disease, including hospitalization and death. Key risk factors include age, and underlying given region.
conditions such as obesity, diabetes and hypertension.
Statistically comparable regional analysis
• Mitigation strategy - Identify the high-risk group and accommodate high risk individuals. In
Austria, some 90,000 employees were classified by the government as being in a higher risk Use statistical matching methods to identify other regions
group for the coronavirus; they will receive a letter establishing their right to telework or paid with similar risk profiles and demographics for comparison.
leave even after measures are lifted. Measure how likely an infection is to spread within the
community due to factors like density, commutes, and
ACTIVITY-BASED RISK – BASED ON WHAT YOU DO frequency of infection spread in hospitals
• Transmissibility Risk - Close and frequent human interactions increase the likelihood of contracting
the virus. Physical proximity, such as working or living with others, or the use of mass transportation Simulation modeling
(trains, buses, planes, elevators, etc.) enables spread of the infection. Model feeds into dashboard and decision support
• Mitigation strategy - Social distancing, masks and other forms of personal protective equipment, framework – helps illustrate how changes like holding a
and strong personal hygiene such as handwashing. Government in the UK and elsewhere have large one-time event or relaxing restrictions on
issued guidance on social distancing measures for workers in construction, manufacturing, logistics restaurants might bend the infection curve
businesses and retail respectively.
How does moderate social
AMBIENT RISK – BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND YOU distancing among a large
• Health Environment Risk - Many factors about the external environment influence both the swath of the population (e.g.
likelihood of coming into contact with the disease as well as the consequences of doing so. These closing bars) affect the
trajectory, as opposed to
include, the prevalence of infectious individuals in your area, the treatments and health care preventing a smaller number
available, and other factors such as air quality. of highly concentrated
• Mitigation strategy - Understand the community levels of disease, including those with acquired gatherings?
immunity, and other data around the extent of sick and immune people in the local population.
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Sources: Metropole, Gov.UK 35KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
Reopening: An industry and risk perspective (Illustrative)
Illustrative view of industries, their value addition and risk of spreading virus
Information is a classic work at home industry. It is an essential and
it has the least amount of risk of transmitting or spreading virus at Value
How essential
How risky Current status
workplace. (Scale: 1-5, 1=less
Industry added (Scale: 1-5, 1=less (Scale: 1-5, 1=not shut
essential, 5=most
($B) risky, 5=risky) down, 5=shutdown)
essential)
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation is high risk/low in terms of an
essential industry. Firms, in this industry require either their workers Finance, Insurance, Real
4,490 3 1 1
or consumers to gather at one place. These industries were shut early. Estate, Rental and Leasing
Professional and Business
Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation is extremely risky but 2,750 3 1 1
Services
also very important. The other industries have dependency on this
Manufacturing 2,360 3 3 3
industry. This will be one of the most difficult sectors when it is time to
resume full service. Information 1,120 4 1 1
Construction 880 2 3 2
Retail 640 1 4 5
Value added: The economic value added by an industry
Hospitals 520 5 5 3
Essential: How essential is the industry to keep running the
economy Utilities 340 5 2 1
Risky: Risk of transmitting or spreading the virus depending Educational Services 260 3 3 4
on whether an industry can maintain social distancing and
Arts, Entertainment and
other safety protocols Recreation
240 1 5 5
Current status: Whether the industry is shutdown, open or
Food and Beverage Stores 160 5 4 1
partially open
Air Transportation 150 2 5 5
Transit and Ground
50 4 5 4
Passenger Transportation
Note: The importance, employment, mix across and within categories,
etc. will impact ranking and vary by region
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 36KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
Sector priority and risk mitigation
Focus on mitigation for essential sectors Examples of possible rules for school reopening
Even at the height of the pandemic, certain sectors have remained Transmissibility risk measures how likely an infection is to
Risk
spread within themitigation
community due to factors like density,
operational, including critical health providers, prisons, grocery commutes,strategies
and frequencyshould
of infectionbegin
spread in hospitals
stores, and other essential activities. There is little option but to Staggered schedules with classrooms at half
keep these open, but optimum mitigation strategies should be capacity with essential sectors,
Capacity factors can inform the county’s likelihood of being
employed. cascading
unable to handle into other
a large population of ill patients—hospital
No sports or music (due to increased risk of beds, number of healthcare providers, telemedicine
economic activities.
options, utilization of emergency services, etc.
Develop data-driven plans for phased sector openings, infection) Phased sector openings
mitigation and reopening large-
Critical economic activities, and those with limited risk, should be
prioritized. In addition, sectors that enable more widespread 1.5-meter (5-foot) spacing between desks scale activities merit
economic activity, such as mass transit or education and day care, comprehensive and
should also be given priority. Data-driven analysis of both data-driven mitigation
economic impact and likelihood of transmission should drive Masks required when coming to school strategies.
decisions.
Hygiene protocols, facilities for washing
Develop concrete plans for large-scale activities hands and adequate supplies of
Activities such as mass transit, public education, correctional disinfectant
facilities, and nursing homes merit detailed analysis and concrete
mitigation strategies. In many countries, education ministries are Special emphasis on graduating classes,
developing guidelines for hygiene measures, school bus the oldest primary school children and
operations, break times and group division that meet social students who are taking exams
distancing guidelines.
Source: The Local.de
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 37KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
Each region may need unique
approaches to recovery activities…
GEOGRAPHY INDUSTRIES & SECTORS POLICY & PROTOCOL COMMUNICATIONS
Prioritization will be key Not all industries and Guidance is critical since Messaging to the
sectors will re-open at the reopening is not returning right audience
same time to normal
• Regions with lower infection rates and • Sectors with a low risk of infection, e.g. • Release guidance on personal hygiene, • Devise targeted communication plans for
less potential for spread can be opened highly automated factories, and less workplace place, physical distancing a areas and industries that are reopening first;
up more easily; vulnerable persons, e.g. day-care centers few days before reopening;
• Communicate to clarify questions on
and schools, should be opened first;
• After the formation of natural immunity, • Devise guidelines on percentage of reopening;
especially areas and regions with high • Complementarities between sectors must workforce that can come back to work;
• Clearly explain the reasons for not opening
immunity can be open; be taken into account. For example, many
• Before reopening, consider developing certain areas and industries.
people with children cannot go to work
• Regions with free capacities in health immunity certified workforce to mitigate
when day-care centers and schools are
care can be opened up more easily. spread of the virus while handling
closed;
personal information discreetly.
• Sectors where home office and digital
technologies can be used well have less
priority than sectors where this is not
possible;
• Sectors that generate high employment and
economic activity in a given region should be
considered as a criterion for priority
opening;
• Priority should be given to easing restrictions
that imply high social or psychological stress.
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Sources: IFO Institute; Deloitte Insights; Deloitte 38KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
Reopening strategies from other countries*
Countries around the world are gradually easing up on their lockdown restrictions
in phases, while following strict social distancing and hygiene protocols
Shopping
Construction and Kindergarten/ Non critical health
Non-essential High schools/ Car dealerships, Salons and Restaurants/ centers/
Country manufacturing primary schools/ care/ elective
stores** Universities bike shops personal care cafes Theatres/
units day care centers surgery
Museums
Austria
Australia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
Iceland
Italy
New Zealand***
Norway
Spain
*This information is as of April 29th 2020
**Small shops, garden centers, laundries, stationery and bookstores Re-opened
***New Zealand reopened non-essential stores, cafes and restaurants on April 27th, but only for online delivery or pick-up Reopening shortly
Note: Taiwan and South Korea did not enforce nation-wide lockdown so most of the activities were open in both the Remained open with limited capacity
countries with a few restrictions. China has also re-opened many of its sectors. Not opened/ reopening in later phases
Sources: The Guardian Reuters, CNN, TIME, Business insider, US News, WSJ, The Guardian, Reuters, StraitTimes, RNZ, NZ Herald, TVNZ, Dailyforex, ABC, ABC,
NewsHub, Dailymail, Telegraph, IcelandReview, IcelandReview, WSJ, Deloitte COVID –19 Government response portal, Reuters, Ruptly, Automotive Logistics 39KEY RECOVERY ACTIONS: Reopen the economy for a better future
Reopening
AUSTRIA strategies vary between countries
Lessons can be learned from other countries on how to reopen different sectors of the economy
Schools Retail Shops Workplaces
Staggered schedule; prioritizing graduating students Reopening smaller shops with guidelines on social Identified high-risk employees to continue to telework
Austria • Reopening from May 4th. First resuming high school classes distancing and wearing of PPEs • Unclear on reopening date for workplaces
which have school leaving exams • Reopened small shops of size 400 square meters or • Identified 90,000 employees who are at higher risk for the
• Some students will learn in shifts with half students attending less starting April 14th. coronavirus. High risk employees to continue telework or
school in the first half of the week and the remaining attending in • Only one customer at a time for every 20 square paid leave after measures are lifted
the second half of the week. No afternoon teaching, sports or meters is allowed. Compulsory for all customers to
music classes wear masks
Prioritizing graduating students and those expected to take Reopening smaller outlets with social distancing Updating occupational safety standards for employees
Germany exams; limiting class size; and physical distancing of desks
• Reopening from May 4th. Focusing on graduating classes, oldest
mechanisms in place
• Reopened stores of size 800 square meters or less
returning to work
• Employees recommended to work from home wherever
primary school children and students who are expected to take starting April 20th possible
exams in the coming year • Shoppers have been asked to maintain 5 feet • Additional occupational safety standards have been issued
• Spacing of 5 feet to be maintained between desks. Local variation distance from each other by Federal Minister of Labor for employees who have to
in guidelines across regions. Example Hesse is maximizing class • Some big stores have cordoned off a smaller area to return to work
size to 15 students, Saxony is holding classes only for subjects meet 800 square meter rule
relevant to the exams
Denmark Reopened for lower grades under strict hygiene and
distancing protocols
Most shops remained open with guidelines on
hygiene and distance
Reopened for companies facing productivity losses;
guidelines on social distancing
• Reopened on April 14th for lower grades (students up to 12 years • Many non-essential shops remained open during • Reopened on April 14th particularly for companies facing
of age) the lockdown period however customers need to productivity losses. All other companies recommended to
• High schools and universities to reopen mid-may comply with guidelines on hygiene and distance continue work from home
• Student desks have to be 6.5 feet apart. Handwashing every 2 • Guidelines issued by Danish Business Authority on workplace
hours has become routine. Only a small group (3-5 children) are protocols including spreading employees across premises,
allowed together on the playground working in shifts etc.
Sources: Reuters, Express, Bird & Bird, The Local, Metropole, The Guardian, The Guardian, The Guardian, Express, Reuters, The Hill, KCRW Berlin, DW, Lexology, BBC, WSJ, NPR
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 40MANAGING THE RECOVERY PROCESS: COORDINATED EXECUTION Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 41
MANAGING THE RECOVERY PROCESS: COORDINATED EXECUTION
Success in the recovery phase requires coordinated
success on all fronts
How do we address the How do we address the How do we keep “the business”
health care crisis? economic crisis? of government operating?
Establish and maintain a safe and healthy Resume/reopen markets; provide funding Resume/reopen offices; manage the
environment; oversee testing; ensure to at-risk sectors/businesses; stabilize government’s own Services, Facilities, and
hospital capacity and access to treatments employment Employees during the crisis
Establish education policies, maintain transportation
networks, and ensure access to other essentials for
the public (may be public, private or a combination)
Regional level leadership will plan and coordinate the government’s actions across workstreams
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 42MANAGING THE RECOVERY PROCESS: COORDINATED EXECUTION
Governments face a daunting set of
decisions/actions during the recovery phase
The sample decision points and actions listed below illustrate the complexity of the recovery. Close
coordination, careful monitoring and real-time adjustments will be needed to speed an effective recovery.
Healthcare Economy Business of government
• Monitor COVID-19 cases to detect a possible “second • Execute economic stimulus plans • Track and disburse recovery funds
wave” during the recovery • Monitor effectiveness of stimulus and other economic • Co-ordinate reopening of government offices
• Resume non-COVID-19 health care services at full scale recovery plans • Track and update regulatory changes
• Review overall costs of COVID-19 and secure additional • Identify strategies to support struggling industries (e.g. • Support workforce upskilling/ reskilling
funding airlines) • Monitor decline of health care crisis and measure ending
• Define discharging/outpatient conditions and services • Monitor financial controls health related impacts on all stakeholders
• Support health workers post COVID-19 with support • Manage supply chain risk and resolve issues • Model conditions across health, economy, and citizen activity
and counseling services • Assess tax strategy based on effectiveness of the with particular focus on economic levers
• Develop a plan for closing temporary testing facilities recovery • Estimate impact of different levels of business reopening on
and disposing materials/equipment • Provide additional emergency support and/or funding scenario modeling and simulation
• Identify potential vaccines for mass-deployment and as needed • Monitor Federal Government policies – focus on economic
develop potential roll-out plan • Redesign unemployment claims process for greater policies (e.g. tax filing)
• Establish ongoing relationships/action plan with simplicity/efficiency • Refortify key supplier networks
neighboring regional governments • Develop and deploy fiscal support for counties and • Monitor impact of business reopening measures
• Establish on-call emergency supplier/supplier networks municipalities facing liquidity issues during the • Review programs for supporting business entities and update
• Review county – by – county status to confirm return to recovery for current conditions (e.g. need for additional funding)
stability • Identify unmet needs during the recovery to prioritize • Model regions budget impact at different stages of reopening
• Identify hot-spot, laggard areas on the county or city and potentially apply for future stimulus funds • Propose and simulate new economic regulations’ impacts
levels and resolve • Continue to develop and monitor various economic until full resumption of business
scenarios for the recovery
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 43MANAGING THE RECOVERY PROCESS: COORDINATED EXECUTION
How do you address all these issues in an integrated fashion?
Measures
1 2 3 4
Establish a COVID-19 Develop Execution by Network Use data, business
mission control communication – with federal, state and and technology
center strategy to increase local governments, tools to accelerate
transparency and private sector, recovery
build trust academics, non-profits
Source: Deloitte
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 44MANAGING THE RECOVERY PROCESS: COORDINATED EXECUTION
1. A unified approach through a COVID-19 Mission Control Center
A COVID-19 mission control center brings together a cross-functional, cross-agency team, structure,
processes, and tools to coordinate a government’s actions through the crisis. It can enhance the
government’s ability to quickly move to a proactive and strategic response to the crisis.
Defining guiding Defining Develop Activating the Operating the
principles workstreams workstream plans response center response center
The mission control center Governments need to The next step is to identify the The center should establish The mission control center
establishes and defines the identify key streams of roles, responsibilities, core services and supporting activities need to be driven in
overall objectives, decision- activities—public health objectives, governance tools, technology, and an open and transparent
making philosophy, investment capacity, public safety, structure, and resources that platforms to operationalize, environment. It needs to
priorities, and broader communication strategy, would help drive activities in track, manage, and align ensure alignment across
governance structure. For recovery task force—and each workstream. It’s important workstream activities. There is workstreams and actively
instance, managing competing include projects, initiatives, to identify the right agency a need to tap into cross- manage issues, decisions, and
priorities between different and milestones that need to leaders to drive each agency resources and best risks to drive activities toward
agencies and focus areas will be undertaken in each. workstream and make granular practices and bring them in to completion.
be key during the initial plans wherever possible. the center.
recovery period.
Source: Deloitte
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 45MANAGING THE RECOVERY PROCESS: COORDINATED EXECUTION
Mission control center pandemic response activities
What would the command center do? Benefits
Mission control centers provide
Strategy, Governance & Interagency Coordination advice and recommendations
▪ Provide subject matter advice to assess and help enhance governance structure, ▪ Better-informed governance model for regarding strategy, coordination,
central coordination, protocols, and emergency actions and governance for emergency
▪ responding to the pandemic
▪ Assist with communication strategy related to the implementation of protective management, health, and
▪ Optimized resource allocation medical organizations
measures
▪ Effective standard operation responding to crises, including
▪ Provide recommendations regarding resource prioritization pandemics. They also provide
procedures
advice and recommendations to
Incident Action Planning
establish and maintain
▪ Assist with recommendations for establishing an Incident Command System, ▪ Proactive mitigation of potential command systems to manage
which the client would use to manage the incident, coordinate resources, and risks and issues incidents, coordinate resources,
establish a structure to maximize multi-agency support and establish a structure to
▪ Robust command center for
▪ Provide recommendations for developing daily priority setting, risk and issue coordinating responses maximize multi-agency support.
tracking, and incident action planning
▪ Fit for purpose, executable plans
configured for unique crisis events
and types
Crisis Communication
▪ Identify and coordinate messaging and conduct media trend and risk analysis ▪ Increased situational awareness
▪ Assist with developing proactive communications ▪ Actionable communications plan
▪ Provide recommendations for improving message development & planning ▪ Effective and clear communications to
▪ stakeholders during turbulent times
Copyright © 2020 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Source: Deloitte 46You can also read
