Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation February 2005

 
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Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation February 2005
Federal Aviation Administration
Office of Commercial Space Transportation
February 2005
Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation February 2005
Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets                                          About FAA/AST

             About the Office of Commercial Space Transportation

     The Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA/AST) licenses

and regulates U.S. commercial space launch and reentry activity, as well as the operation of non-federal

launch and reentry sites, as authorized by Executive Order 12465 and Title 49 United States Code, Subtitle

IX, Chapter 701 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act). FAA/AST’s mission is to ensure public health

and safety and the safety of property while protecting the national security and foreign policy interests of the

United States during commercial launch and reentry operations. In addition, FAA/AST is directed to encour-

age, facilitate, and promote commercial space launches and reentries. Additional information concerning

commercial space transportation can be found on FAA/AST’s web site at http://ast.faa.gov.

Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation                                          i
Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation February 2005
About FAA/AST                                                Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets

                                                         NOTICE
     Use of trade names or names of manufacturers in this document does not constitute an official endorsement of such
                products or manufacturers, either expressed or implied, by the Federal Aviation Administration.

ii                                            Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation
Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation February 2005
Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets                                                                                                  Contents

                                                              Table of Contents

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
     Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
     Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
     Spaceports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
Recent Events in Commercial Suborbital Spaceflight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
     2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
     2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Suborbital Markets - An Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
     SRLV Emerging Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
           Tourism and Adventure Travel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
           Science and High-Speed Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
           Microsatellite Orbital Insertion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
           Microgravity Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
           Media, Advertising, and Sponsorship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
           Hardware Qualification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
           Commercial Remote Sensing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
           Military Surveillance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
           Space Diving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
     SRLV Long-Term Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
           Fast Package Delivery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
           High-Speed Aerospace Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
Launch Company Profiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
     Acceleration Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
     Advent Launch Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
     American Astronautics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
     Armadillo Aerospace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
     Beyond-Earth Enterprises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
     High Altitude Research Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
     Masten Space Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
     Micro-Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
     PanAero, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
     Rocketplane Ltd. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
     Scaled Composites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
     Space Transport Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
     SpaceDev . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
     TGV Rockets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
     Vanguard Spacecraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
     XCOR Aerospace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
Space Tourism Company Profiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27
     Incredible Adventures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27
     Space Adventures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27
     Virgin Galactic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27

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Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation February 2005
Contents                                                                           Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets

Spaceports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
     FAA Licensed Spaceports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
           Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
           Mojave Civilian Flight Test Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30
     Proposed Spaceports Seeking an FAA License . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
           Oklahoma Spaceport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
           Texas Spaceports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32
Appendix: A Brief History of Major U.S. Suborbital Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
     The WAC-Corporal (1944-1950) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
     The V-2 (1945-1952) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
     The Bumper-WAC (1948-1952) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
     The Viking (1946-1957) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
     The Aerobee (1946-1965) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35
     The Nike (1946 to present) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35
     Loki (1951-1985) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
     Honest John/Taurus (1951 to present) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
     Terrier (1959-present) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36

iv                                                           Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation
Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation February 2005
Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets                                                 Introduction

                                               Introduction

      Suborbital launch activity has long been over-               After initially pursuing the orbital satellite
looked by the commercial market, which for many              market for low Earth orbit (LEO) constellations in
years focused exclusively on launching satellites.           the mid-and late-1990s which has since collapsed,
Suborbital launch operations remained primarily in           several launch companies have switched to pursuit
the government sector, supporting missile tests and          of suborbital vehicles in a new market: public space
scientific work, and even there activity declined sig-       travel and space tourism. New companies have also
nificantly after the end of the Cold War. Recently,          started attracting investors in the past four years.
however, there has been a resurgence of interest in          Much of the interest in suborbital space tourism has
commercial suborbital spaceflight, stimulated by the         been galvanized by the Ansari X Prize, a $10-
emergence of new markets, notably space tourism,             million award offered to the builders of the first
and new vehicles developed by entrepreneurs. With            privately-developed reusable suborbital vehicle
the successful claiming of the Ansari X Prize, high          capable of carrying three people to 100 kilometers
public interest in space travel, and new vehicles            (62 miles) altitude twice within two weeks. The
under construction, entrepreneurial ventures are             prize requirements were formulated to create
pushing a new industry forward at a rapid pace.              vehicles that serve the space tourism market after
                                                             winning the prize. In addition, market surveys have
       The Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles               shown considerable interest in suborbital space-
(SRLV) and Emerging Markets report provides the              flight by members of the public, including those
first comprehensive assessment by the Federal                able to afford ticket prices of around $100,000 to
Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial               $200,000 per flight.
Space Transportation (FAA/AST) of the commer-
cial suborbital reusable launch industry in the                    SRLV Proponents anticpate more markets than
United States. This document reviews three key               space tourism. Vehicles that can fly to altitudes of
areas in this commercial suborbital renaissance:             100 kilometers or more can serve commercial, civil,
new markets for suborbital spaceflight, companies            or military remote sensing markets, filling a niche
that are developing vehicles to serve those markets,         between aircraft and orbiting spacecraft. The flight
and spaceports from which these vehicles can oper-           profiles of such vehicles will result in several contin-
ate. This report also discusses the recent develop-          uous minutes of microgravity, far longer than can be
ments in commercial suborbital spaceflight and the           created with aircraft like NASA’s KC-135 “Vomit
history of suborbital rocketry.                              Comet,” or its C-9 replacement, which would permit
                                                             extended microgravity science applications as well
                     Markets                                 as the qualification of experiments intended for flight
                                                             on the International Space Station. Suborbital
       One of the biggest challenges for the commer-
                                                             vehicles can also serve as the first stage of an orbital
cial suborbital launch industry-arguably bigger than
                                                             launch system, carrying an expendable upper stage
developing the launch vehicles themselves-has been
                                                             that could place small spacecraft into orbit at
identifying and developing markets that can be
                                                             potentially far lower costs than existing expendable
served by suborbital vehicles. The commercial
                                                             launch vehicles. Other markets include: advertising,
orbital launch industry has the benefit of a major,
                                                             hardware qualification, remote sensing, and
well-defined market: launching spacecraft to serve
                                                             space diving.
telecommunications, remote sensing, and other
applications for commercial, civil government and
                                                                   Should some or all of these initial suborbital
military clients. By contrast, although there is a
                                                             markets prove viable, the resulting income will
government market for expendable suborbital
                                                             provide vehicle developers and operators with a
launch services, what exists is mostly confined to
                                                             cash flow that will enable the development of new
missile defense and scientific applications that have
                                                             generations of more capable reusable suborbital
little commercial applicability.
                                                             vehicles. These vehicles, capable of flying to higher

Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation                                          1
Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation February 2005
Introduction                                             Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets

altitudes or longer distances downrange, can in turn       microgravity, and lower operating costs. In addi-
open new suborbital markets, including rapid deliv-        tion, standards for payloads will be important (e.g.
ery of critical packages and, eventually, high-speed       vehicle interfaces) for suborbital payloads so as to
passenger transportation. However, these markets           reduce customer dependence on a single launch
may take decades to fully develop, as they require         services provider. This should have the effect of
not just new suborbital vehicles but improvements          reducing the risk of scheduling problems, while
in the overall transportation infrastructure.              fostering competition. Historically, one of the
                                                           enabling elements for new markets and for market
                     Vehicles                              expansion has been the development of common
                                                           industry-wide standards.
      Suborbital launches predate their orbital
counterparts by decades-centuries if one considers
                                                                               Spaceports
early rocketry experimentation in Europe and Asia.
Existing expendable suborbital rockets can trace                  The United States currently has 10 commercial
their heritage back to the efforts of Robert Goddard       and federal spaceports. These facilities, however, are
and Wernher von Braun in the 1920s and 1930s.              designed primarily to support orbital launch activity,
The early rockets were primarily sponsored for             as well as a limited number of conventional, non-
the development missiles rather than space launch          commercial suborbital launches. The established
vehicles. After the second world war their uses            federal ranges are less well suited, however, to
were expanded and they became the forerunners              support launch activities by the emerging generation
of both orbital and suborbital launch vehicles in          of piloted reusable suborbital vehicles. These vehi-
use today.                                                 cles often do not require the launch pads or range
                                                           infrastructure of orbital launch vehicles: many need
       The new generation of commercial suborbital         little more than a flat pad or runway, as well as fairly
vehicles under development today bears little              modest tracking capabilities. Moreover, industry is
resemblance to its predecessors. Most of these new         concerned about the cost and regulatory burdens of
vehicles were designed to be eligible for the Ansari       federal launch ranges and co-located spaceports, due
X Prize, and thus are designed to safely carry three       to suborbital vehicle operators’ desire to fly on flexi-
people and be reusable. Beyond that, however,              ble schedules and minimize their range fees. In the
there were few design restrictions for the prize, and      opinion of some potential operators range fees
thus there has been an array of different designs put      would account for the dominant portion of their
forward. Vehicles under development include those          operations costs.1
that launch vertically and horizontally, as well as
those deployed from aircraft or balloons. Landing                 To address the needs of suborbital vehicle
systems include a combination of wings, jets,              operators, several new spaceports specifically
rockets, and parachutes. A variety of other unique         designed to support commercial suborbital launch
design features were also employed to permit the           activities have been or are currently being devel-
development of reusable suborbital vehicles that           oped. Mojave Airport in California is the latest
could meet the requirements of the prize.                  facility to obtain an FAA/AST launch site operator
                                                           license, in June 2004, specifically to serve subor-
      Because many of these vehicles are still in the      bital vehicles that take off and land horizontally.
early development and test stages, it is not clear yet     Other spaceports in New Mexico, Oklahoma, and
what vehicle designs will prove optimal to serve           Texas, are continuing to develop and are seeking
commercial suborbital markets. It’s quite possible         FAA/AST spaceport licenses in addition to those
that different vehicles will emerge to serve different     already licensed in California (at Vandenberg Air
markets, depending on the unique requirements of           Force Base), Florida, Virginia, and Alaska. New
those markets and their commercial potential.              Mexico was selected to host the X Prize Cup, an
Vehicle developers are also considering future gen-        exhibition and competition of suborbital vehicles,
erations of piloted reusable suborbital spacecraft,        scheduled to start in 2006.
including those with increased passenger or cargo
capacity, higher peak altitudes, increased time in

2                                         Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation
Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation February 2005
Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets                                             Recent Events

               Recent Events in Commercial Suborbital Spaceflight

                        2003                                 October 28: The da Vinci Project of Toronto,
                                                             Ontario, announced that it will perform the X Prize
April 9: Starchaser Industries of Cheshire,
                                                             qualification flights of its Wild Fire suborbital RLV
England, test-fired its Churchill Mk 2 bi-propellant
                                                             from Kindersley, Saskatchewan.
engine for the first time. The engine will be used on
the company’s Thunderbird and Thunderstar subor-             October 30: FAA/AST determined that XCOR
bital RLV vehicles.                                          Aerospace’s launch license application for a
                                                             manned suborbital RLV was sufficiently complete.
April 16: XCOR Aerospace of Mojave, California,
announced $187,500 in additional equity invest-
                                                             November 22: High Altitude Research Corporation
ments. The investments qualify the company for a
                                                             (HARC) of Huntsville, Alabama, unveiled its
Defense Department program that matches private
                                                             Liberator suborbital RLV project.
capital four to one. The company will use the
investment to develop rocket pump technology
                                                             December 15: The X Prize adds two teams to its
for its planned suborbital RLV.
                                                             competition: HARC and Space Transport
                                                             Corporation of Forks, Washington.
April 18: Scaled Composites of Mojave,
California, unveiled its “Tier One” suborbital
                                                             December 17: On the centennial of the Wright
spaceflight program, consisting of an aircraft,
                                                             Brothers’ first airplane flight, Scaled Composites
White Knight, which carries aloft a rocket-powered
                                                             conducted the first powered flight of
spacecraft, SpaceShipOne.
                                                             SpaceShipOne, achieving a top speed of Mach 1.2
May 20: Scaled Composites flew the first captive             and peak altitude of 20,720 meters (68,000 feet).
carry flight of SpaceShipOne and White Knight                The company also announced that Microsoft co-
from the Mojave Airport in California.                       founder Paul Allen has been the financial sponsor
                                                             of the project.
June 26: Canadian Arrow of London, Ontario,
announced its team of six astronauts - four Canadian,                               2004
one American, and one Ukrainian - who will fly the           January 12: Rocketplane Ltd. (formerly Pioneer
company’s eponymous suborbital RLV.                          Rocketplane) announced that it had broken ground
                                                             on facilities at the Oklahoma Spaceport in Burns
July 5: Armadillo Aerospace of Mesquite, Texas,              Flat, Oklahoma. Those facilities will be used to
performed a drop test of a prototype of its Black            build and operate its planned suborbital RLV.
Armadillo vehicle to test parachute deployment and
its crushable nose cone.                                     January 21: The X Prize Foundation selected
                                                             Florida and New Mexico as finalists to host the X
July 22: Starchaser Industries conducted a drop test         Prize Cup, a competition among suborbital RLV
of its Nova 2 capsule, part of its Thunderbird subor-        companies.
bital RLV, at Red Lake, Arizona.
                                                             February 4: The House Science Committee
August 7: Scaled Composites flew the first glide             approved by voice vote H.R. 3752, the Commercial
test of SpaceShipOne, detaching from the White               Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004. The legis-
Knight carrier aircraft at an altitude of 14,320             lation specifically identifies AST as the regulating
meters (47,000 feet) and gliding to a landing at the         authority for suborbital spaceflight, establishes an
Mojave Airport 19 minutes later.                             experimental permit system for RLVs, and extends
                                                             the existing liability regime to cover commercial
October 20: The FAA published a notice in the                RLV flights, including those carrying passengers.
Federal Register officially defining suborbital rockets
and suborbital trajectories and stating that vehicles
that meet these definitions will be regulated by AST.

Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation                                         3
Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation February 2005
Recent Events                                          Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets

March 4: The House of Representatives approved            June 21: Scaled Composites conducted the third
H.R. 3752 on a vote of 402-1.                             powered flight of SpaceShipOne, achieving a maxi-
                                                          mum speed of Mach 2.9 and a peak altitude of
March 28: Space Transport Corporation success-            100,124 meters (328,491 feet). The flight was the
fully test-fired its 53,400-newton (12,000-pounds-        first time a commercial manned suborbital space-
force) solid-propellant engine that will power the        craft reached space. The pilot, Michael Melvill, was
company’s suborbital RLV.                                 awarded FAA/AST commercial astronaut wings.

April 1: FAA/AST awarded a launch license to              June 23: Starchaser Industries announced it would
Scaled Composites for SpaceShipOne, the first             open a U.S. office in Las Cruces, New Mexico,
manned suborbital launch license issued by the            with plans to begin flight operations from the
agency.                                                   Southwest Regional Spaceport as early as 2006.

April 8: Scaled Composites conducted the second           July 22: The Space Commercial Human Ascent
powered flight of SpaceShipOne, achieving a top           Serving Expeditions (CHASE) Act, S.2722, the
speed of Mach 1.6 and peak altitude of 32,000             Senate version of H.R. 3752, was introduced.
meters (105,000 feet).
                                                          July 27: Mojave Aerospace Ventures (the official
April 23: FAA/AST awarded a launch license to             name of the Ansari X Prize team led by Scaled
XCOR Aerospace for its Sphinx manned suborbital           Composites and funded by Paul Allen) announced
RLV.                                                      that it would conduct the first of its two planned
                                                          Ansari X Prize qualification flights on September
May 5: The X Prize announced a multimillion-              29 from Mojave, California.
dollar donation from entrepreneurs Anousheh
Ansari and Amir Ansari. The prize was renamed the         August 5: The da Vinci Project announced that it
Ansari X Prize.                                           would conduct the first of its two planned Ansari
                                                          X Prize qualification flights on October 2 from
May 11: The X Prize Foundation selected New               Kindersley, Saskatchewan.
Mexico as the state where the annual X Prize Cup,
a series of flight competitions for suborbital vehi-      August 7: A subscale technology demonstration
cles, expected to begin in 2006, will be held.            vehicle built by Armadillo Aerospace crashed
                                                          during a test flight in Mesquite, Texas, when the
May 17: GoFast, a suborbital rocket built by the          vehicle ran out of propellant at an altitude of
amateur Civilian Space Exploration Team, achieved         approximately 180 meters (600 feet).
a maximum altitude of 124 kilometers (77 miles) in
a launch from the Black Rock Desert, Nevada. The          August 8: Space Transport Corporation’s Rubicon
launch was the first time an amateur-built rocket         1 vehicle was destroyed during a test flight near
reached space.                                            Queets, Washington, when one of the vehicle’s two
                                                          solid fuel motors exploded on ignition.
June 15: Armadillo Aerospace conducted a
successful test flight of its subscale technology         August 14: Canadian Arrow conducted a successful
demonstrator vehicle in Mesquite, Texas, achieving        drop test of its passenger capsule, dropping it 2,400
a maximum altitude of 40 meters (131 feet).               meters (7,900 feet) from a helicopter into Lake
                                                          Ontario near Toronto.
June 17: FAA/AST awarded a launch site operator
license to the East Kern Airport District to cover        August 16: Masten Space Systems, of Santa Clara,
suborbital spaceflight activities at Mojave Airport.      California, announced that it planned to develop the
                                                          XA-1, a reusable unmanned suborbital vehicle capa-
                                                          ble of flying to 100 km altitude to serve microgravity
                                                          and other research and development markets.

4                                        Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation
Federal Aviation Administration Office of Commercial Space Transportation February 2005
Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets                                            Recent Events

August 17: The da Vinci Project announced it had             October 4: SpaceShipOne, piloted by Brian Binnie,
changed its name to “The GoldenPalace.com Space              completed the second of its two Ansari X Prize
Project: Powered by the da Vinci Project.”                   qualification flights at Mojave Airport, reaching a
                                                             peak altitude of 112,000 meters (367,442 feet). The
September 23: The GoldenPalace.com Space                     prize judging team declared the flight a success the
Project: Powered by the da Vinci Project announced           same day, and officially declared Mojave Aerospace
that its planned October 2 launch from Kindersley,           Ventures, sponsors of the SpaceShipOne team, the
Saskatchewan, would be delayed for an unspecified            winners of the prize.
period because of delays in the availability of a few
key components.                                              November 6: Mojave Aerospace Ventures was
                                                             presented with a check for $10 million dollars and
September 25: Beyond-Earth Enterprises of                    a trophy for capturing the Ansari X Prize in a cere-
Colorado Springs, Colorado, conducted two flight             mony at the St. Louis Science Center in St. Louis,
tests of one-third scale demonstrators of its planned        Missouri.
recoverable suborbital rocket from Frederick,
Oklahoma; one rocket reached an altitude of over             November 20: U.S. House of Representative
4,575 meters (15,000 feet).                                  passed H.R. 5382, a revision of H.R. 3752 by a
                                                             vote of 269 to 120. H.R. 5382 addressed concerns
September 29: SpaceShipOne, piloted by Mike                  about language definining what types of vehicles
Melvill, completed the first of its two Ansari X             are considered as suborbital, crew safety and
Prize qualification flights at Mojave Airport,               passengers rights to sue operators.
reaching a peak altitude of 102,870 meters (337,500
feet). The prize judging team declared the flight a          December 9: U.S. Senate passes H.R. 5382 by a
successful attempt the following day.                        unanimous vote.

October 1: The GoldenPalace.com Space Project:
Powered by the da Vinci Project announced that
Transport Canada, the Canadian equivalent of the
U.S. Department of Transportation, had awarded
the team a launch license for its Wild Fire vehicle.
The license expired on November 1, 2004.

October 4: Rocketplane Ltd. announced that it had
entered into an agreement with tourism company
Incredible Adventures, of Sarasota, Florida, to
market tourist flights on Rocketplane’s XP vehicle
starting in 2007, at a ticket price of $99,500.

Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation                                       5
Recent Events                 Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets

6               Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation
Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets                           Suborbital Markets - An Overview

                              Suborbital Markets - An Overview

Expendable suborbital vehicles have been serving             enthusiasts interested in building and launching
several distinct markets for over 40 years. However,         rockets. These rockets have become more powerful,
the suborbital field has seen many changes during            and it is possible that a handful of these rocket
that time. The use of suborbital vehicles, including         amateurs may pursue business plans based on
sounding rockets, has dropped considerably since             successful vehicle performance.
the Cold War period, when several hundred such
vehicles were launched annually. Suborbital vehi-            Reusable suborbital vehicles, on the other hand,
cles were then used predominantly for military and           are expected to lead a renaissance in the suborbital
scientific research funded almost entirely through           marketplace, beginning with human suborbital
government budget allocations. Universities were             adventure travel. While the idea of a human-rated
also major participants in sounding rocket pro-              vehicle capable of suborbital missions is not new,
grams, a relationship enabled by public funding in           the potential for a commercial suborbital industry
the form of research grants. However, the number             is. Recent studies have demonstrated that customer
of Ph.D. theses dedicated to atmospheric or astro-           demand for suborbital adventure travel is robust
nomical research dependent on sounding rockets               enough to get an industry rolling, and it is expected
has continually declined since the 1970s.                    that the winning of the Ansari X Prize will effec-
                                                             tively initiate this emerging market.
During the suborbital heyday of the Cold War, it
was not uncommon for more than 700 suborbital                Other short-term commercial suborbital markets
rockets to be launched annually to serve the mili-           that may emerge in the next ten years include
tary and scientific markets. Even in the late 1980s          science and high-speed research, microsatellite
the average number of suborbital rockets launched            insertion, microgravity research, hardware qualifi-
for military, scientific, and educational purposes           cation, military and commercial remote sensing,
remained over 300 annually. A significant decrease           and advertising and sponsorship. Still more markets
in the early 1990s, however, has left the annual             are expected to emerge 30-40 years from now,
market for suborbital launches at well under 100.            when second- and third-generation vehicles allow
This decrease in demand for suborbital launches              for point-to-point travel and are supported by more
has many causes, but three factors appear as the             extensive ground infrastructure.
most significant. First, with the collapse of the
Soviet Union in 1991 and the end of the Cold War,                      SRLV Emerging Markets
the number of military suborbital research and                        Tourism and Adventure Travel
missile test launches has dropped. Second, students
pursuing graduate research appear less likely to do                Space tourism and adventure travel is likely
so in fields requiring sounding rockets, instead             to become the first successful suborbital market to
focusing on genetics, microbiology, computer engi-           emerge during the next ten years. The birth of this
neering, and other disciplines. Finally, traditional         market is expected to begin around 2007, spurred in
users of suborbital vehicle technology are increas-          large part by the emergence of suborbital vehicle
ingly turning to other options, such as computer             entrepreneurs outside the aerospace industry
simulations, stratospheric balloons, and high-               mainstream and competitive pursuit of the Ansari
altitude aircraft, to perform their research.                X Prize, which was won in October 2004. The X
                                                             Prize Foundation was established in 1996 to award
There are, however, a few signs that the number of           $10 million to the first team to launch a suborbital
expendable suborbital vehicles launched annually             reusable launch vehicle (SRLV) capable of carrying
will increase in the near future. For example, the           three people to an altitude of 100 kilometers, return
Department of Defense (DoD) will continue to                 safely to Earth, and repeat the exercise within two
launch interceptor and target vehicles in support of         weeks. With patronage from the Ansari family, the
an anti-ballistic missile shield. Another positive           renamed competition produced a group of 20 plus
sign is the growing number of rocket hobbyists and           domestic and international contenders and symbol-

Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation                                        7
Suborbital Markets - An Overview                                Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets

izes the introduction of a truly reusable passenger-                Aerospace Ventures won the Ansari X Prize, Virgin
carrying space launch vehicle. Even though the                      Galactic alone reported that 7,000 people had regis-
Ansari X Prize has been won, SRLV development                       tered for future tourist flights on a vehicle based on
and testing by the various teams is expected to con-                SpaceShipOne to be built by Scaled Composites.
tinue in pursuit of recognition, business ambitions
and other prize competitions. The Foundation will                         Futron Corporation produced a comprehen-
sponsor special events around the world similar in                  sive report2 of space tourism and adventure travel in
principle to air shows, designed to promote nascent                 2002. Futron contracted with Zogby International to
suborbital markets and provide competitions to                      survey 450 individuals with annual incomes of at
keep innovation thriving. The X Prize Foundation is                 least $250,000 or a net worth of at least $1 million.
attempting to create a new business model for space                 The study identified realistic price points: between
business to include sponsorships.                                   $25,000 and $250,000 per suborbital flight, and
                                                                    $1 million to $25 million per orbital flight. A for-
      To follow-on the successful X Prize, the X                    mer Space Shuttle commander with substantial
Prize Cup has been announced. The Cup will fea-                     experience in human spaceflight helped to draft
ture a series of cash prize competitions ranging                    a description of what a realistic space experience
from fastest turn-around time, maximum number                       would be like for a private citizen.
of passengers per flight and during the entire Cup
event, to maximum altitude attained and fastest                           The responses gathered from the 450 surveyed
flight time from take-off to landing. An overall                    individuals were analyzed over a period of eight
annual X Prize Cup title will also be awarded based                 months, and profiles of those who were most likely
on points in the other competitions. Flight competi-                to pay for a space experience were developed. Some
tions for the X Prize Cup are scheduled for October                 42 percent of the respondents characterized them-
2006. A Public Spaceflight Exhibition is planned                    selves as either “somewhat likely,” “very likely,” or
for October 2005. Both Cup-related events will be                   “definitely likely” to pay for a suborbital ride, and
held in New Mexico.                                                 51 percent of those indicated they would pay at least
                                                                    $25,000 for the privilege. Customer preferences were
       Unlike the commercial satellite launch market                identified for the basic trip scenarios and compared
- the focus market of initial RLV entrepreneurs-                    with the realistic description of a trip to space.
the demand for tourism flights is expected to be
significant in the coming years. Tourism companies                        The analysis, which resulted in a 20-year
involved with marketing space travel, including                     forecast of passengers and revenue, did not address
Space Adventures, Ltd, Incredible Adventures, and                   the business case for a suborbital vehicle; rather, it
Virgin Galactic, have described a high level of fas-                addressed the demand for services that might be
cination and interest from the public. After Mojave                 provided via a suborbital or orbital vehicle. The

                               Table 1: Announced Suborbital Space Tourism Agreements
                                                                                             Passengers
                                    Tourism       Estimated First   Advertised
     Vehicle                                                                     Passengers Registered for
                  Vehicle Name     Marketing        Operations       Price Per                                Launch Site
     Operator                                                                     Per Flight   Future
                                   Company*           Flight        Passenger
                                                                                              Flights**
    Mojave
                                                                                                             Mojave Airport,
  Aerospace       SpaceShipTwo Virgin Galactic         2007          $190,000         5          7,000
                                                                                                               California
 Ventures, LLC

    Rocketplane                     Incredible                                                                 Burns Flat,
                  Rocketplane XP                       2007          $99,500          2      Unannounced
        Ltd                        Adventures                                                                  Oklahoma

      XCOR                           Space                                                                   Mojave Airport,
                      Xerus                            2007          $98,000          1      Unannounced
    Aerospace                      Adventures                                                                  California

*Some operators have more than one marketing company.
**Space Adventures has reported over 100 deposits for space flights for vehicles to be determined.

8                                                Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation
Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets                           Suborbital Markets - An Overview

challenge for the aerospace industry is to develop a         with no budget to actually launch them. Principal
vehicle that can most effectively meet this demand.          investigators funded by NASA are unable to select
                                                             their own commercial launch services because their
       Results of the study showed that demand for           experiment funding includes money to launch on
suborbital space adventure travel exists, and that it        government-built suborbital vehicles, typically from
remains latent because of a lack of vehicles. Once           Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia. This has led to
vehicles are introduced (and the assumption for              U.S. government control of the vehicle market for
purposes of the study was that such vehicles could           civil science payloads.
carry two passengers), the study forecast that a total
of almost 16,500 people could be traveling to                     Because of recent budget cuts to NASA’s
suborbital altitudes by the year 2021. Those passen-         sounding rocket program, fewer launches are
gers would pay suborbital vehicle operators fares            expected and scientific review panels are taking
that, combined, would total an estimated $800                fewer risks.3 The cost of launching solar and astro-
million in revenues.                                         physics missions requiring higher performance
                                                             vehicles and recoverable payloads from White
       It should be noted that this study focused on         Sands Missile Range is no longer affordable.4
suborbital and orbital passenger flights, and did not
address demand for other services in detail. In addi-              New, reusable suborbital launch vehicle firms
tion, the scope for the study did not focus on the           believe they can offer more frequent flight opportu-
support infrastructure necessary to sustain the pro-         nities at similar or lower costs than NASA if
jected number of flights. It is possible that addition-      science investigators were given funding vouchers
al, perhaps more significant, sources of revenue             for selecting their own launch vehicles.
resulting from suborbital activity will emerge.
Additional space tourism studies have been done by                 A small but proven international commercial
Space Adventures, NASA, National Space Society,              market for expendable suborbital vehicles has been
and Patrick Collins among others.                            a high-speed test bed for scientific experiments.
                                                             Australia’s University of Queensland flew two
      Science and High-Speed Research                        supersonic combustion ramjet (scramjet) test mis-
                                                             sions called Hyshot from Woomera, Australia, on
      Not long after rockets were invented, it
                                                             Astrotech’s Terrier-Orion vehicles. Even though the
became clear that instruments for measuring the
                                                             launch was not conducted for or by the U.S. gov-
upper atmosphere, imaging the Sun, and otherwise
                                                             ernment, the Terrier-Orion vehicle was built by an
studying the environment many hundreds of
                                                             American company, Astrotech and therefore these
kilometers above the Earth could be installed as
                                                             missions were licensed by the FAA. The 2001 and
payloads. In the earliest cases, data was retrieved
                                                             2002 flights will be repeated with future missions
on tapes that returned to Earth after a short flight.
                                                             by DTI (formerly Astrotech), possibly in 2005.
Often the data was destroyed, but sometimes it
returned intact and revealed information about the
                                                                   Other countries have emerged as major
ionosphere and the Sun’s corona. Launching spe-
                                                             providers of suborbital launch services, including
cialized suborbital rockets (sounding rockets are so
                                                             Norway, Japan, Brazil, and India. No particular
named because they have been primarily limited to
                                                             country dominates the field of suborbital high-
atmospheric research,) has continued to this day,
                                                             altitude research.
but at a much reduced level.
                                                                   SRLVs may introduce a resurgence in subor-
       Since 1989, the FAA has licensed 14 subor-
                                                             bital high-altitude research, perhaps akin to the
bital launches by expendable vehicles, all connect-
                                                             phenomenally successful joint NASA-Air Force
ed to government sponsors. For most universities
                                                             X-15 vehicle flights of the 1960s. One advantage of
with interest in flying space science experiments
                                                             the X-15, beyond its high speed, was the ability to
and satellites, cost is the primary issue. Launches
                                                             change out instrument racks quickly and efficiently,
have been difficult to fund without government
                                                             reducing turn-around time in order to accommodate
support: some universities build complete satellites
                                                             researchers’ schedules. Such an approach would be

Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation                                           9
Suborbital Markets - An Overview                         Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets

ideal for a commercial vehicle used for research           several of their satellites remain on the shelves
and other purposes. In addition, a single SRLV can         because universities simply cannot afford the
be used to monitor the Earth’s upper atmosphere            launch costs. The satellite may cost as little as a
over the span of many years at potentially a much          few thousand dollars, but the launch is orders of
lower total cost than to conduct the same research         magnitude more expensive. If a vehicle could
using many expendable rockets.                             launch them at lower costs, OSSS foresees thou-
                                                           sands of its satellites being launched annually in
         Microsatellite Orbital Insertion                  twenty years.
       Suborbital vehicles can be designed as a first
                                                                 Similarly, agencies like DARPA have
stage for launching small satellites into LEO.
                                                           an interest in studying technologies related to
Essentially, a piloted SRLV would reach a specific
                                                           microsatellites, including constellations of maneu-
altitude determined by such parameters as orbit
                                                           verable mini-spacecraft. Some high technology
desired, atmospheric conditions, and mass of the
                                                           research and development efforts end without
payload, and then release an upper stage with the
                                                           achieving actual space testing. If the price tag
payload attached. The upper stage - in much the
                                                           of such projects could be reduced by utilizing
same way an upper stage would send a satellite to
                                                           inexpensive launch options, more money could
geosynchronous orbit (GEO) after separating from
                                                           be spent on satellites and related technologies.
an orbital launch vehicle - would boost the small
satellite to the required orbit. The SRLV would then
                                                                         Microgravity Research
coast back to a landing site, either powered or
unpowered depending on the design.                                SRLVs may participate in and stimulate
                                                           microgravity research. While suborbital RLVs cannot
      A similar concept already being pursued by           match the extended microgravity research possible in
the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency              orbit, more experiments can be sent up than might be
(DARPA) is called RASCAL, or Responsive                    otherwise possible for customers waiting for orbital
Access, Small Cargo, Affordable Launch. RASCAL             flights with a faster turnaround. SRLVs can also
will be composed of an air-breathing first stage           allow researchers greater flexibility at lower costs
capable of reaching 61 kilometers (200,000 ft) alti-       than for researchers who must depend on the occa-
tude while carrying a small upper stage. The com-          sional orbital launch that costs hundreds of millions
plete system will be capable of deploying 50 kilo-         of dollars. For example, physiological research
gram (110 pound) microsatellites directly into             could be conducted on a routine basis, a particular-
orbits with any inclination. The RASCAL vehicle            ly useful scenario if the vehicle can maneuver (as
will be able to take off within one hour of a launch       opposed to a ballistic vehicle whose maneuverability
command and refly again within 24 hours at a cost          is relatively limited). Indeed, the researcher himself
of no more than $750,000 per flight. The program           or herself can go along for the ride on a SRLV, rather
has progressed past the Preliminary Design Review          than depend on a professional astronaut who must
stage due to the efforts of the Space Launch               be trained.
Corporation contractor team. Phase 3 development
is scheduled to begin during 1st quarter of 2005.                Media, Advertising, and Sponsorship
During Phase 3 prototype vehicles will be construt-              Entertainment media outlets, advertising
ed. The first satellite launches are expected to occur     agencies, and sponsorship by a wide variety of
in 2008.5                                                  interested parties is expected to show interest in
                                                           new suborbital launch vehicles. While these groups
      The market for microsatellites is not well
                                                           will not necessarily purchase a launch, they will
understood, but enough data exists to indicate that
                                                           provide an important source of revenue for SRLV
at least two customer groups would be interested in
                                                           operators. In addition, it is probable that there will
a very low-cost method of launching “throwaway”
                                                           be an initial spike of interest among these groups to
microsatellites. One Stop Satellite Solutions
                                                           exploit the “newness” of SRLV technologies, fol-
(OSSS), based in Utah, builds microsatellites pri-
                                                           lowed by a gradual flattening out as the overall mar-
marily for university clients. According to OSSS,
                                                           ket matures. Feature and documentary filmmakers

10                                        Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation
Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets                           Suborbital Markets - An Overview

may have an interest in pursuing new opportunities           exploited in orbit is granting astronauts the right to
presented by access to space on suborbital vehicles.         utilize a product in space in exchange for the novel-
The Discovery Channel paid for rights to telecast            ty of simply seeing the product used in space.
two documentaries about the Ansari X Prize in
October 2004. Similarly, access to Russian sub-                    Public sponsorship through the collection of
mersibles, previously unavailable to the commercial          monies from interested organizations and individu-
sector, allowed filmmaker James Cameron to visit             als to create prizes to be awarded for a variety of
the sunken Titanic up close for the movie “Titanic”          contests related to SRLVs, such as the Ansari X
and documentary “Ghosts of the Abyss.” Realistic             Prize and the X Prize Cup will perhaps profoundly
microgravity scenes in “Apollo 13” were filmed               affect the development of SRLVs. Contests take
aboard a modified KC-135 (“Vomit Comet”) air-                advantage of the competitive streak in human
plane, which has since been turned into a commer-            beings and promote creativity, innovation, and
cial business by the Zero-Gravity Corporation.               teamwork, often across traditional political barriers.
Commercial SRLV operators may provide a new                  These contests by necessity break through stagnant
outlet for visual entertainment in the decades ahead.        thinking and the status quo, which is why they are
                                                             effective in jump-starting emerging markets.
      Advertising is a tried-and-true method of
selling products and ideas. Commercial SRLVs, and                   Prizes sponsored by companies and wealthy
even non-commercial ones, will likely be embla-              investors were awarded for a variety of aviation
zoned with the livery of the manufacturers and               firsts and were key motivators in sparking what has
sponsors in the same tradition we see today with             become the commercial aviation industry today.
orbital launch vehicles. It is rare that a third party       Prizes often promote more spending than the amount
will pay for the privilege to advertise on a launch          of the purse. They allow the promoter to advance his
vehicle, but it has been done. Pizza Hut, in one             goal without choosing a technology or a vehicle.
famous example, paid to have its logo pasted to the          Development of the required technology often con-
side of a Russian Proton vehicle. During the final           tinues after the reward has been claimed. An histori-
Ansari X Prize qualifying flight SpaceShipOne                cal example of this is the Vin Fiz-sponsored cross
featured the Virgin Group logo on its fuselage.              country flight in 1911, in which Cal Rogers flew a
                                                             Wright Flyer from Long Island to Long Beach in
      Advertising could also come from companies             pursuit of the Hearst Prize. Publisher William
who provided subcomponents, engineering, design,             Randolph Hearst offered a $50,000 prize to the first
and other services for the prime contractor or SRLV          aviator to cross the country in 30 days or less.
operator. Other opportunities exist for non-profit           Rogers took 84 days, 16 stops and endured 19 crash-
organizations and political campaigns. SRLVs                 es during the flight, but kept going even after it was
present a unique opportunity for advertisers not             clear he could not win the prize. In a more recent
only because of their novelty, but also because              example, Canada’s Da Vinci Project, Canadian
SRLVs represent an opportunity to link the once-             Arrow, America’s Armadillo Aerospace and others
distant idea of space with the average consumer.             have continued development of their vehicles, even
Media exposure also makes SRLV advertising                   though Mojave Aerospace Ventures has already won
attractive to potential advertisers.                         the Ansari X Prize.

      Finally, sponsorship, which has a long history                        Hardware Qualification
in jump-starting nascent markets, will have a role
                                                                   Another potential use of SRLVs would be to
to play as the emerging SRLV industry gains a
                                                             subject equipment to the launch and microgravity
foothold. Sponsorship can come in a variety of
                                                             environment prior to certification on manned space
forms, including sending people into space as a
                                                             platforms like the International Space Station.
result of winning a lottery or prize paid for by the
                                                             However, this market would compete with cheaper
sponsor, or providing astronauts and passengers
                                                             testing methods currently available such as
with jumpsuits covered in patches representing
                                                             aircraft and ground-based load-testing facilities.
donor organizations (similar to the suits worn by
                                                             Furthermore, the loads offered by the piloted
NASCAR drivers). Another opportunity already

Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation                                       11
Suborbital Markets - An Overview                          Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets

vehicles currently in development might only be             over selected territories. Remote sensing satellites,
attractive to equipment developers intending their          in contrast, orbit high above the Earth providing
hardware for transport and use aboard manned space          essentially the same types of services at less expen-
vehicles. Unmanned rockets subject equipment to             sive rates relative to aerial methods, though gener-
sounds, loads, and vibrations in excess of human            ally with a slightly degraded resolution (this is rap-
tolerances. Aircraft offer about 30 seconds of              idly changing, however). Also, real-time commer-
microgravity during the arcing flight paths they use        cial satellite remote sensing products are not yet
to generate microgravity conditions. The current            available. Some emerging SRLV businesses have
generation of SRLVs while offering several minutes          recognized a “gap” between altitudes exploited by
of microgravity, are not envisioned to conduct air-         aerial platforms and those occupied by LEO satel-
craft style flight profiles. SRLV operators would           lites. This niche, the suborbital remote sensing
have to develop a method to repeat or extend the            realm, may prove useful for some clients interested
microgravity times during a single flight in order to       in high-resolution, quick-turnaround imagery cover-
offer a competing experience to hardware develop-           ing a larger area than an aircraft could. A satellite
ers. The aircraft in current use also offer more            could cover the same area, but its orbit may not tra-
volume for experimentation. While no SRLVs are              verse the area of interest for several days.
currently being offered with similar accommoda-
tions, as the designs mature larger vehicles may                   Potential clients include disaster relief agen-
appear. However, it is conceivable that if an               cies, insurance companies, oil companies, interna-
equipment item is small enough to share a flight            tional banks, meteorologists, and military organiza-
with other cargo or passengers then cost might              tions. These groups have a strong interest in inex-
become low enough to make SRLVs a viable                    pensive, real-time, high-resolution, quick-turn-
alternative to established methods of manned                around remote sensing products. The challenge for
flight hardware qualifications.                             commercial SRLV operators will be to keep the
                                                            cost of operating and maintaining their SRLVs low,
          Commercial Remote Sensing                         so that inexpensive services relative to aerial plat-
                                                            forms can be provided. And like aircraft, a SRLV
      The remote sensing industry consists of
                                                            conducting remote sensing flights would need to
four main parts: aerial imagery, ground stations,
                                                            operate near the target area of interest. The flexibil-
value-added products (often called geographic
                                                            ity of operating from multiple locations and local
information systems, or GIS), and satellites. Total
                                                            airspace regulations would need to be considered.
sales for all sectors of the U.S. remote sensing
                                                            Some emerging SRLV providers, like TGV
industry amounted to an estimated $2 billion in
                                                            Rockets, expect to reap the benefits of this
2001, with the bulk attributable to the sales of GIS
                                                            untapped market.
software and services and aerial imagery. Worldwide
sales of raw commercial satellite remote sensing
                                                                            Military Surveillance
imagery generated an estimated $200 million in
revenues for 2001, with a projected revenue total                 Collection of national security imagery is
approaching $500 million by 2010.                           done by both aerial platforms and satellites. Crewed
                                                            aircraft have been used by the military for almost a
       Typical platforms (aircraft and satellites) host     century. Uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) are
a suite of passive sensors designed to detect reflect-      relatively new to modern warfare, with projections
ed light and include panchromatic (visible imagery,         showing that many such vehicles will be flying
such as that produced by a camera) and infrared             around the war zones of the future. As it is today,
(IR) sensors. Active sensors providing radar and            these systems cover several “layers” in terms of
lidar imagery are also examples of services offered         remote sensing platforms. Satellites adequately
by aerial and satellite remote sensing providers.           cover the ultimate high ground but have limited
While aerial imagery is obtained relatively close to        maneuvering ability, while UAVs and crewed
the Earth, yielding high-resolution imagery and             reconnaissance aircraft like the U-2 are deployed
real-time data across a broad spectrum, the services        within the Earth’s atmosphere and are highly
provided are expensive. In addition, legal and inter-       maneuverable.
national restrictions prevent aircraft from flying

12                                         Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation
Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Emerging Markets                            Suborbital Markets - An Overview

      Suborbital launch vehicle remote sensing sys-          sport called “spacediving.”8 As Canadian Arrow
tems have been proposed as a method of “filling in”          envisions it, future spacedivers could routinely take
the layer between satellites and aircraft. Such a            60-second suborbital flights, reach apogee, then
system is envisioned by TGV Rockets, as a “pop-up”           proceed to jump out while wearing a counter pres-
capability giving military leaders a near real-time          sure suit, and free fall to Earth from an altitude of
snapshot (perhaps even video for short periods)              64 kilometers (40 miles) or more. Today, reaching
of theater-wide operations. TGV plans to offer its           an altitude of 37,000 meters (121,400 feet) to make
mobile platform launched MICHELLE B vehicle                  a high-altitude jump requires a balloon ride of
for this purpose.6 The challenge for suborbital              many hours. An SRLV, on the other hand, could
systems is to be cost-competitive with other                 take spacedivers from the ground to this altitude in
aerial vehicles while offering unique services.              minutes. This sport will likely start with jumps ini-
                                                             tially at lower altitude; with higher record-breaking
                   Space Diving                              jumps following as experience is gained.
      During the late 1950s and early 1960s, the
                                                                   Space diving could bring about new advances
U.S. Navy and the U.S. Air Force conducted
                                                             in spacesuit design. One anticipated development
manned parachute jumps from high altitude bal-
                                                             is the counter pressure suit. This type of suit uses
loons, prior to the first NASA Mercury astronaut
                                                             elastic material instead of gas pressure to protect
suborbital and orbital missions. Joe Kittinger of the
                                                             an astronaut from the vacuum of space.
United States Air Force, who successfully jumped
from an altitude of 31,300 meters (102,800 feet) in
                                                                  A detailed market analysis on the demand for
1960, currently holds the world record for a human
                                                             space diving remains to be pursued. According to
high-altitude dive.7 During the 1960s, the National
                                                             Christchurch Parachute School in New Zealand,
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
researched orbital escape systems for astronauts.
                                                                “there are a growing number of people who are
Several “space parachutes” were designed featuring
                                                                trying skydiving in the search for the ultimate
maneuvering thrusters, conical drag skirts, inflat-
                                                                leisure activity. Consequently, the skydiving
able cones, and spray-on ablative shielding to
                                                                industry is experiencing rapid growth in the
protect a single astronaut during reentry. It was
                                                                adventure tourism market to cater for this need.
concluded that a self-contained ballistic recovery
                                                                This demand is creating a whole new industry
system could be designed to bring a stranded
                                                                for people to become involved in and creating
astronaut safely to the ground.
                                                                many new full-time positions not previously
                                                                considered as serious career options.”
      Recently, there have been plans by some to
break Joe Kittinger’s 31-kilometer (19 miles) alti-
                                                             If leisure skydiving is increasing in popularity, it
tude record. Several teams from across the globe
                                                             stands to reason that a small but growing minority
are intent on jumping from altitudes of almost 45
                                                             will be interested in pushing the envelope ever
kilometers (28 miles). Some of the competitors are:
                                                             higher. Skydivers will make excellent suborbital
Cheryl Sterns, who will make an attempt from an
                                                             customers, as they understand safety procedures
undisclosed site in the western United States during
                                                             and systems. The adventurous few who have made
September 2005; Michel Fournier of France; and
                                                             high-altitude jumps will be familiar with oxygen
Rodd Millner of Australia. These jumps will be
                                                             systems and high-altitude survival.
conducted using stratospheric balloons. The balloon
is the limiting factor for the world record pursuers.
                                                                       SRLV Long-Term Markets
The use of an SRLV, which is less reliant on atmos-
pheric conditions, will allow competitors to easily                         Fast Package Delivery
break any previously held altitude records using                   In a typical business as services become more
balloons as platforms.                                       efficient, competition will become fiercer and cus-
                                                             tomers will demand more. Delivering packages is
     The Canadian Arrow team, a competitor for
                                                             an excellent example of this phenomenon. Consider
the Ansari X Prize, is proposing a new extreme
                                                             that before 1973, when Federal Express began

Federal Aviation Administration/Office of Commercial Space Transportation                                          13
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