GCC Markets Update UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar - Have a question?
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Ross Bray Industry Sector Lead, Agribusiness & Food, Middle East & Africa Australian Trade and Investment Commission Have a question? riyadh@austrade.gov.au
Agribusiness Expansion Initiative Boots on the ground Events and activities Comprehensive Suite of services to to work with you in specifically for the sector/market info help clients expand multiple markets agri-food sector online 24/7, self and diversify serve Working with peak bodies and government agencies on agreed priorities and for seamless service
Export Market Development Guide: Red Meat, Seafood, Grains and Dairy to three GCC markets Have a question? riyadh@austrade.gov.au
UAE Sarah Aboulenain Business Development Manager Australian Trade and Investment Commission Sharooq Khajotia Business Development Manager Australian Trade and Investment Commission
UAE Market Potential The UAE’s high GDP per The Abu Dhabi Agriculture and Food Safety Authority has identified Macroeconomic resilience, 2020 capita, sustained consumer opportunities in targeted investment areas including: Resilience impact Score confidence, expanding population, rising tourist 2.5 1.5 numbers and projected swift 2.0 1.2 recovery from the Covid-19 Cheese & milk Seeds Honey Plant tissue 1.5 0.9 pandemic are set to fuel Milk collection powder production culture consumer demand across all 1.0 0.6 segments in the decade ahead. 0.5 0.3 Although there has been a 0 0 China KSA UAE Malaysia India sustained government focus Fruits & Score ranges from 0-20. A score of greater than one indicates a positive Crops Dates Livestock Algae Fisheries on strengthening the capacity vegetables outlook, from 0-1 a stable outlook, and less than 0 a negative outlook. of the local agricultural and In 2019 the UAE had Per capita GDP, 2019 ($) fisheries industries in recent years – particularly on the 50,000 back of the pandemic, which 390,400 ha The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector disrupted supply chains of agricultural accounted for 40,000 land, covering around the world and resulted 5.5% of total $3.1bn in shortages – the country land area of the economy’s 30,000 continues to be dependent value added on food imports. Indeed, 20,000 the UAE currently imports approximately 80-90% of its 23.2% 10,000 of agricultural land was irrigated domestic food needs. 0 UAE KUWAIT KSA BAHRAIN OMAN Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: worldbank.org; adafsa.gov.ae; fao.org 6
UAE Food Retail The retail sector in the UAE is categorised into food Tourism impact and non-food segments, with food retail holding The UAE’s tourism sector has a significant knock-on effect on the nation’s retail market, with malls being a major draw the larger share. Supermarket and hypermarket for foreign visitors, particularly in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. In 2019 travel and tourism accounted for 11.9% of the UAE’s GDP, while it employed roughly 10% of the labour force, at 745,000 people. The delayed Dubai Expo 2020 will take place channels dominate, and strong growth has been between October 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022. Although concerns remain that the Covid-19 pandemic will hamper visitor w i t n e s s e d in va l u e - a d d e d a n d r e a d y- t o - c o o k numbers, the organisers are optimistic and have maintained their pre-pandemic targets. products in recent years. According to Euromonitor, retail sales of packaged food in the country were • 25m visitors expected over the course of the event recorded at $5.9bn in 2020, a 2 0 . 9 % increase • Estimated on-site food and beverage sales will reach $545m over 2016. Forecasts suggest that sales in the • Roughly 85,000 meals per hour will be served during Expo 2020 segment will reach $7.5bn by 2025. Food & drink internet retail sales in the UAE, 2014-19E ($ m) 120 Food processing The country’s strategic location and strong port and logistics infrastructure have helped fuel expansion in the 100 food- and beverage-processing segment. In 2019 the UAE was home to 568 food and beverage processors with total output of nearly 6m tonnes. Some 2.3m tonnes of output was for 15 essential food items that included dairy products, meat, cooking oil, sugar, wheat, rice, fruits and vegetables, and tea and coffee. 80 60 40 E-commerce The UAE’s online food retail segment was growing strongly even before the Covid-19 pandemic forced 20 food outlets to close their doors and focus on home delivery and takeaway services. Various websites and mobile applications are dedicated to the food retail space, and there are specialised platforms that offer organic produce, fresh meat and seafood. 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics source: dubaichamber.com 13
UAE Distribution Channels There are a variety of selling methods in the UAE, Urbanisation, 2010-20 (% of total population) though direct sales are not very widespread. The 95 most common is to market products through local commercial agents. Many firms will choose 90 a different distributor or agent in each emirate. 85 Due to high urbanisation, supermarkets and grocery stores dominate the UAE retail market. Major players include Lulu Group, Majid Al Futtaim, 80 Landmark Group, Al Azizia Panda United, Azadea, EMKE Group, Fathima Group of Companies, 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Carrefour, Spinneys Dubai and Al Maya. Key market players The UAE is the region’s leader in e-commerce Seafood Red Meat Grains and has witnessed notable growth in online Bidvest Food Service Elfab Foodco Holding Company sales, especially during the pandemic. The UAE e-commerce market is projected to expand at Deep Catch Horeca Trade Golden Grains Foodstuff Trading a CAGR of 18.9% between 2020 and 2025, to Breco Seafoods Kibsons International Asia & Africa General Trading $3.9bn. Rising urbanisation rates in the country BWP Siam Trading Al Ghurair are also facilitating the transition to e-commerce, Blue Wave Fish Traders Sidco Foods Trading Al Rabiah Trading Co which has changed consumer spending habits Blue Seas Products Sun Impex Gautam General Trading since the onset of the pandemic: almost 50% of Atlantis Food Holdings consumers prefer to shop online, with grocery Mantos Foods CC sales alone up 41%, according to an online poll by Standard Chartered in September 2020. GSA Traders Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics source: worldbank.org 14
UAE “ Dairy The UAE’s dairy market holds significant potential for domestic and international operators alike, underpinned by robust economic projections and strong consumer Our newly established investment segment has already identified several opportunities appetite. As with other countries in the GCC, a focus on within 15 targeted investment areas, including milk collection, and cheese and milk powder food security and self-sufficiency has led to increased production. government support for local production. While the Saeed Al Bahri Salem Al Ameri, Director-General, AbuDhabi UAE is the second-largest producer of milk in the GCC, Agriculture and Food Safety Authority it imports other dairy products such as cheese. Leading cheese suppliers to the UAE, 2019 Country Volume In 2019 dairy accounted for Milk production in of supply (tonnes) Abu Dhabi, 2018-20 (tonnes) 10% KSA 15,724 of re-exported food and beverage US 9795 8% products of imported Egypt 5774 food and beverage products Denmark 5752 Turkey 4234 New Zealand 3865 The UAE dairy market is set to expand at from France 3609 a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) $1.8bn 2018 to of over 7% between 2018 and 2024 2019 $2.6bn Italy 2786 2020 Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: scad.gov.ae; csc.gov.ae; moccae.gov.ae; ahdb.org.uk; dubaichamber.com; Quote source: OBG The Report: Abu Dhabi 2020 7 businesswire.com; ead.gov.ae; adafsa.gov.ae; comtrade.un.org
UAE Seafood The development of aquaculture has been driven Quantity of fish caught, 2019 (tonnes) in large part by Ministry of Climate Change The UAE’s fisheries & Sharjah Ajman and Environment strategies aimed at easing aquaculture market is projected pressure on local fisheries. Although there has to grow at a CAGR of Ras Al Khaimah Umm Al Quwain been progress on this front, the country currently imports 72% of the seafood it consumes. 4.7% Fujairah Abu Dhabi between 2020 and 2025 Dubai Sources of seafood consumed in the UAE (%) Imported Locally caught Local aquaculture 2589 Aquaculture production 1 in Abu Dhabi was 17,583 5218 650 810 527 6125 27 tonnes tonnes tonnes in 2017 in 2018 in 2019 TOTAL 11,042 72,117 17,056 72 12,495 Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: scad.gov.ae; fcsc.gov.ae; moccae.gov.ae; ahdb.org.uk; dubaichamber.com; 8 businesswire.com; ead.gov.ae; adafsa.gov.ae; comtrade.un.org
UAE Grains Wheat milling and processing is driven UAE grains imports (000 tonnes) Wheat Corn Barley While demand for grain in the by re-exports and local demand UAE dipped during the beginning of the pandemic amid the general 2014/15 economic slowdown and drop in international arrivals, the country’s recovery from the health crisis 1.7m tonnes and comprehensive vaccine drive 920,000 tonnes 2015/16 of flour-milling suggest renewed potential in the of storage capacity capacity per year future. With limited water resources and natural water recharge, the 2016/17 UAE is reliant on grain imports to meet demand, as well as to feed a growing number of livestock. Major suppliers of wheat, 2019/20 (000 tonnes) RUSSIA 2017/18 Although innovative new technologies are being rolled out to bolster the CANADA country’s food security, its strategy UKRAINE still largely depends on acquiring 2018/19 farmland overseas, or importing AUSTRALIA and stockpiling grain at home. EU & UK Indeed, a rising stockpile capacity INDIA in recent years has helped fuel the 2019/20 country’s re-export potential, with US neighbouring Saudi Arabia emerging 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 500 1000 15000 2000 2500 as the UAE’s largest exportpartner. Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics source: usda.gov 9
UAE Meat • The UAE's edible meat market is expected to grow Strong economic growth and high levels is expected to rise once more, driven and boost the quality of local produce. at a CAGR of 6.5% between 2020 and 2025 • Domestic poultry production is forecast to reach of disposable income among both the in the short term by Dubai’s hosting This feeds into the country’s broader 56,000 tonnes in 2021, up 12% on 2020 local and expat population have fuelled of Expo 2020; the six-month event national food security drive, particularly • The UAE's imports of Australian sheep and goat the growth of the meat market in the beginning in October 2021. in the wake of the pandemic; the Abu meat account for 2.25% of the total imports of UAE, with the import value of beef, D h ab i Agriculture a n d Fo o d Safety this food group around the world poultry, and sheep and goat meat all While virtually all forms of large-scale Authority recently announced a Top-five beef choice motivators in the UAE expanding steadily in recent years. domestic agriculture are limited by the Dh1bn investment fund earmarked for 1. 100% all natural country’s arid, desert climate, local agricultural projects. However, imports 2. Halal certification As economic activity and global business authorities h ave rolled out suppo rt remain central to supply, and in 2019 3. Quality grading and leisure travel start to pick up again p r o g ra m me s to help small-scale Australia wa s the UAE’s top import 4. Animal welfare conditions “ after the Covid-19 pandemic, demand farmers increase livestock production partner for sheep and goat meat. 5. Safety certification Value of imports, 2017-19 ($ m) UAE’s top import partners, 2019 ($ m) BEEF SHEEP & GOAT 2017 2018 2019 Pakistan Australia Australia India Sheep & Brazil [Our organisation aims to support] local farmers and Goat US Ethiopia livestock breeders by strengthening partnerships New Zealand Kenya between the public and the private sectors, and 369.9 386.1 383.1 India encouraging more investment in the sector. Sudan Argentina South Africa Pakistan Russia New Zealand Kuwait Saeed Al Bahri Salem Al Ameri, Beef South Africa Director-General, Abu Dhabi Agriculture Sudan Canada Spain and Food Safety Authority 305.9 310.6 323.3 Ethiopia UK 0 30 60 90 120 0 50 100 150 200 Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: mla.com.au; trendeconomy.com Quote source: OBG The Report: Abu Dhabi 2020 10
UAE Conclusions & Recommendations Strengths • Financial assets and oil reserves drive Weaknesses • Heavily dependent on a few sectors trade, logistics and tourism development • Significantly impacted by the pandemic The UAE is a sophisticated market characterised with local partners or well-established Australian • Heavy investment to diversify economy in terms of oil prices and travel by high purchasing power, a diverse and growing companies in the region could help exporters • 1st in MENA and 16th globally for ease • 74% of land classified as desert of doing business • 95% foreign national workforce, population, and a business-friendly environment. capitalise on these opportunities. Emerging non- • Official language is Arabic, although all predominantly from South Asia It is Australia’s largest trading partner in the tariff barriers – particularly in agri-food imports major business languages widely used • Strong gender imbalance region and at the heart of global commerce due – are a challenge, with new standards, quality • Very low unemployment rate • Some UAE companies attempt to • Trade exhibitions change scope of work post-contract to its transport, financial and communications marks and labelling rules adding to costs and • Large and growing expat community • Regional tensions infrastructure. Bilateral non-oil trade has surged in admin. Increasingly fragmented GCC approaches • Political stability • Emerging non-tariff barriers – • Considerable current account surplus particularly in agri-food import sector – recent years, and there is ample potential. Working to standards may pose additional barriers. • Among the highest GDP per capita that drive up costs and admin • Regional leader in e-commerce • Largest trading partner in the region, with Opportunities Challenges Untapped global significant presence of Australian firms export potential • Recent normalisation with Israel Grains • Wheat exports; currently • Australian wheat exports limited so far • Wheat, excluding durum: $243.8m Opportunities Threats reliant on Russia • Durum wheat: $14.9m • Gateway to Middle East and Africa, • Soft oil prices and sluggish global Dairy • Milk powder: $62.5m already regional headquarters for many demand, coupled with OPEC-mandated • Cheese: $52.6m Australian companies production cuts, impact economic • Competition from KSA, the US, the EU, • Strong population growth driven by stability • Considerable re-exports • Butter: $44.2m Egypt and Turkey workforce migration • Presence of diverse international • Cheese • Processed cheese: $26.4m • Second-largest producer of milk • Yoghurt: $23.7m • High GDP per capita and consumer players seeking to leverage the • Concentrated milk and cream: $52.5m confidence, growing population and UAE’s strengths to expand into global • Low-fat milk: $39m rising tourist numbers fuel demand markets Seafood • Rapidly growing market • Government dedicated specific trips to across products • Continued conflicts in the region • Shrimp and prawns, frozen: $236.2m • Imports 80-90% of food needs • Stands to be significantly impacted by fish-producing nations such as Turkey • Imports 72% of needs • Whole fish, fresh: $65.9m • Highly developed infrastructure allows climate change and Greece to import seafood during the • Fish fillets, frozen: $59.8m for continued growth despite economic pandemic slowdown and oil price volatility Meat • Australia is the #1 sheep • Bovine cuts, frozen: $266.4m • Bovine cuts, fresh: $189.8m • Positive outlook due to recently enacted and #2 beef exporter fiscal reforms • Competition from Pakistan in beef • Goat meat: $62.6m • Meat demand expected • Several high-profile trade events • Sheep carcasses: $63.5m to grow significantly throughout 2021 • Lamb carcasses: $59.4m Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics source: intracen.org 15
Saudi Arabia Mohsen El Bahaie Business Development Manager Australian Trade and Investment Commission
Saudi Arabia “ Market Potential Although Saudi Arabia’s economy was negatively the health crisis to safeguard the economy, as well The privatisation process undertaken by the government affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and low as population growth, high per capita income, and international oil prices in 2020, IMF forecasts mega- and giga-project investments associated will create business opportunities for many, and open suggest a strong recovery in the short term. The with Vision 2030 that continue to fuel spending. the door for greater margin gains for both foreign fund expects the Saudi economy to grow by 2.9% Many of these projects align with the authorities’ investors and local companies in 2021 and 4% in 2022, before levelling out at goal of turning Saudi Arabia into one of the top- around 2.8% growth per annum through to 2026. five global travel destinations by 2030, with $64bn Abdulaziz Mohammed Al Namlah, Managing Director, Amnest Group The projected rebound will be supported by a series earmarked for investment by the Kingdom’s newly of financial measures that were introduced during formed General Entertainment Authority. Tourism and hospitality are Macroeconomic resilience*, 2020 GDP growth, 2019-26F (%) set to benefit from Vision Resilience impact Score 2030, which aims to: 4 2.5 1.5 Boost the 2.0 1.2 3 1.5 0.9 number of domestic and 2 international travellers 1.0 0.6 from 67.7m in 2018 to 0.5 0.3 1 100m in 2030 0.0 0.0 China KSA UAE Malaysia India 0 *Scores range from 0 to 20. A score of greater than 1 indicates a positive Increase tourism’s outlook, 0-1 a stable outlook and less than 0 a negative outlook. -1 contribution to GDP Pandemic response from 3% in 2020 to -2 10% by 2030 In March 2020 the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority SR30bn SR6bn Saudi Arabia ranked for banks and financial to exempt in the top five -3 Turn the country into announced a SR50bn institutions for deferred SMEs from out of 119 countries -4 package to support the loan payments by small the costs of a in terms of a top-five global private sector during the and medium-sized loan guarantee macroeconomic travel destination -5 pandemic, including: enterprises (SMEs) programme 19 20 21F 22F 23F 24F 25F 26F resilience in 2020 Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: imf.org; mt.gov.sa; spa.gov.sa Quote source: OBG The Report: Saudi Arabia 2019 19
Saudi Arabia Food Retail The traditional retail sector in Saudi Arabia is gradually giving way to more modern channels as rising disposable incomes, Top-10 growth products in Saudi Arabia an increasing population base and expanding urban centres fuel the growth of hypermarket and supermarket chains in the 1. Processed meat & seafood 6. Processed fruits & veggies Kingdom. Total food retail sales reached approximately $37bn in 2020, 59% of which was generated through traditional 2. Baby food 7. Ready meals grocery outlets. The remaining 41% came from more modern retail channels such as supermarkets and hypermarkets located in malls. As in many other markets, the Covid-19 3. Baked goods 8. Savoury snacks pandemic has shifted demand and consumption patterns in the Kingdom, with online food-delivery services taking off as food establishments adjusted to the constraints of lockdown 4. Ice cream & frozen treats 9. Fruit pie filling measures. As of October 2020 there were some 48 delivery apps operating in Saudi Arabia, many of which opened during the pandemic. Consolidation of these new channels is likely 5. Breakfast cereals 10. Beverages to be a major trend in the sector moving forwards. 59% 41% 48 $54.8bn 3.2% 70.3% 4.6% of food retail sales of food retail sales food-delivery apps in in revenue for food CAGR of the market in 2020 growth in the value in 2020 were in 2020 came from operation as of October and grocery retail was derived from the of the food and in the food retail generated via modern channels like 2020; many opened in 2020 sector between food segment, with total groceries market traditional channels hypermarkets and during the pandemic 2016 and 2020 revenue of $38.5bn in 2020 supermarkets Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: usda.gov; marketresearch.com 27
Saudi Arabia Distribution Channels Re g u l a t i o n s for halal b e v e ra g e s a n d Largest retail outlets, 2019 dairy products have o p e n e d the d o o r In November 2020 the MARKET SHARE COMPANY Saudi Arabia’s for new international companies to enter government began the Panda Retail barley imports are the Saudi market, with the drinking milk privatisation of barley 54.5% forecast to fall to segment attracting the highest level of 19.8% imports, with the private Al Othaim foreign direct investment. The Saudi dairy 6.2m sector assuming control market overall is highly competitive and BinDawood tonnes of barley import purchases beginning is dominated by Al Safi Danone, Nada March 2021. To facilitate the handover 11.3% in the 2020/21 Dairy, Nadec, Saudia Dairy & Foodstuff Lulu Saudi process, the Saudi Arabia Grain Hypermarkets marketing year, Company and Ornua, among others. Organisation issued 11 import and down from a Farm distribution licences to potential local 8.7% previous forecast Superstores barley traders – two of which had already 3% of 7.6m tonnes begun importing as of February 2021. Due to the Kingdom’s 2.7% Other high urbanisation rate and dependence on Urbanisation, 2010-20 (% of total population) imports, hypermarkets and 90 supermarkets are the leading 85 distribution channels in the country, accounting for more 80 than 50% of all fish and seafood distribution 75 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: euromonitor.com; worldbank.org 29
Saudi Arabia Dairy With approximately 1.5% of its total landmass classified Total dairy imports reached $1.92bn in 2019, of which • The Saudi dairy market was valued at $4.8bn in 2020 as arable, Saudi Arabia cheese and curd, and milk and cream • The Covid-19 pandemic led to a rise in demand for products remains largely dependent accounted for $692m such as cream, milk and butter, as more Saudis cooked and on food and beverage baked at home due to social-distancing and lockdown measures imports to meet local demand, particularly when it • The market is characterised by a high consumption of milk New Zealand, Denmark products, with several local dishes requiring milk and cheese in comes to satisfying growing appetite for a wider range and the UAE are major sources of Saudi Arabia’s their preparation imported dairy. In 2019 the Kingdom purchased $770.4m of gourmet dairy products. worth of products from these countries. • Rising incomes, an emphasis on healthy eating and the increased availability of dairy products is expected to bolster consumption The Kingdom is both the in the medium term largest country in the GCC • Indeed, average annual household dairy sales are forecast to rise and the top consumer of from $861 in 2020 to $909.70 in 2025 Saudi Arabia’s dairy market is expected to grow dairy in the bloc. Domestic at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of consumption of cheese, in 3.6% between 2020 and 2025 particular, has increased Dairy production & consumption, 2019E-25F (000 tonnes) substantially in recent years. 2019E 2025F One of the local players Cheese accounts for 30% of the country’s Milk production 2491 2601.5 total dairy spending helping to meet demand Liquid milk consumption 1470.7 1675.5 for milk is domestic dairy Whole milk powder consumption 97.6 113.7 operation Al Marai, the The Kingdom imported 181,613 tonnes of Butter production 5.2 5.3 Middle East’s largest food cheese and curd in 2019, including 7040 Butter consumption 42.2 50.3 tonnes worth $34m from France and beverage manufacturing Cheese production 172.8 205.7 and distribution company. Cheese consumption 262.5 323.8 Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: mordorintelligence.com; fitchsolutions.com; ahdb.org.uk; bestfoodimporters.com 20
Saudi Arabia Seafood Increasing consumption Seafood imports & exports, 2015-19 ($m) on the back of a growing Imports Exports Saudi Arabia is the number-one middle class, rising demand consumer of seafood in the GCC 450 for imported products, and 400 the emergence of specialty 350 seafood restaurants are 300 Saudi Arabia’s fisheries and aquaculture anticipated to drive future 250 market is forecast to post a CAGR of 200 demand for seafood in Saudi 150 4.1% between 2020 and 2025. Arabia. Indeed, developing 100 the sector is a central pillar 50 The Saudi government has pledged in the government’s efforts 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 SR1.3bn of investment in domestic to ensure food security aquaculture under the Vision 2030 and support diversification Aquaculture production by environment, 2017-19 (tonnes) development plan. throu gh Vision 2030. Brackish water Marine Freshwater Production received a boost in January 2020 when four Total Vision 2030 aims to 39,480 7920 7635 local companies merged 2017 55,035 Increase domestic fish production to to create the Advanced 600,000 tonnes per year Aquaculture Company. 56,380 8020 7635 The new entity – valued Meet 65% of domestic demand for 2018 72,035 at SR500m – is expected seafood locally to produce 60,000 tonnes 61,100 5400 8900 of fish in the initial stages 2019 Lower production costs by 30% 75,400 before boosting production to 300,000 tonnes by2035. 0 40,000 80,000 Agribusiness Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: eurofish.dk; mordorintelligence.com; ahdb.org.uk; vision2030.gov.sa; comtrade.un.org; fao.org 21
Saudi Arabia Grains Main sources of wheat imports by volume, 2019/20 (% market share) Recovery from the pandemic – combined The country’s grains security roadmap focuses on with expected rising visitor numbers from the three areas: local production, imports from Saudi EU 93.2 resumption of Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages and companies located abroad and general imports. Russia broader tourism arrivals drawn by the Kingdom’s The Saudi Grains Organisation, one of the bodies Brazil efforts to expand cultural offerings associated charged with implementing the country’s food Turkey with Vision 2030 – suggest significant potential security strategy, is responsible for all purchases. Indonesia for grains exporters. Although advances in The authorities are working to expand the role of Australia desalination and the careful management of the private sector in grains production: in June Egypt 3.4 available groundwater has allowed for some 2020 ownership of two milling companies was 0.9 Other 1.7 domestic grain production, Saudi Arabia’s arid transferred to the private sector, and an additional 0.2 desert climate and limited water supply preclude two facilities were privatised in April 2021. Primary suppliers of rice imports, 2019/20 (000 tonnes) any industrial-scale operations. Indeed, production was banned from the 2014/15 to the 2017/18 Top grain suppliers by market share, 2019/20 INDIA season due to concerns over water shortages. PAKISTAN While the ban has since been rescinded, strict US rules remain in place for small-scale producers, 93.1% 79% THAILAND who are limited to producing either wheat or EU Rice India forage. Licences are required for both products, Wheat VIETNAM and there are limits to how much land is permitted BRAZIL be set aside for production. The International EU Grains Council estimated in March 2020 that Saudi Arabia’s wheat production stood at 700,000 60% 50% AUSTRALIA Argentina Russia tonnes for the 2019/20 season, an increase from Maize Barley OTHER 500,000 tonnes in the previous season. 0 100 200 1200 1300 Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics source: usda.gov 22
Saudi Arabia Meat Saudi Arabia’s meat market is forecast Per capita sheep meat consumption in MENA, 2020E (kg carcass weight equivalent per person) Meat trade, 2019 ($ m) In 2019 KSA imported to grow at a CAGR of 5.5% between 2020 and 2025. Expansion has been Bahrain Qatar Imports Exports $178m driven by strong economic growth Kuwait worth of fresh or and changing consumer trends Oman 138.1 Sheep & 2.5 chilled, boneless bovine UAE meat, compared to in recent years, as the expanding Jordan goat middle class adopts more expensive, protein-based diets. In the short to KSA Iran $211m Lebanon 196.2 Beef 0.05 worth of frozen, medium term growth will continue to Egypt boneless bovine meat be fuelled by these factors, as well 0 5 10 15 20 as rising tourism numbers that are expected due to the Kingdom’s more Value of imports, 2018-20 ($ m) KSA’s top import partners, 2019 ($ m) relaxed visitor visa rules. Sheep & Goat Beef 248.2 188.3 138.1 Australia Brazil 48 With just 1.5% of its land currently 65 classified as arable, Saudi Arabia New Zealand 38 Australia 46 Sheep remains heavily dependent on food Ethiopia 14.4 Pakistan 45 & goat imports to keep pace with domestic Spain 5.4 India 24 demand. Brazil was the Kingdom’s India 4.7 Ethiopia 15.6 largest import partner for beef in 156.4 145.4 196.2 Pakistan 4.1 New Zealand 4.6 2019, with the trade value reaching Kenya 2.3 Kenya 3.6 $48m, just ahead of Australia and Brazil US 2 2.5 Pakistan, with values of $46m and Beef Netherlands France 0.104 2.1 $45m, respectively. Meanwhile, Netherlands 0.101 Canada 2 Australia supplied 47% of sheep and 2018 2019 2020 0 20 40 60 80 0 15 30 45 60 goat meat imported that year. Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics source: trendeconomy.com; mla.com.au 23
Saudi Arabia Conclusions & Recommendations Strengths Weaknesses • Largest Gulf country and highest GDP in • Absolute monarchy, with the Al Saud Saudi Arabia offers a substantial market for agro- is sophisticated and accustomed to Western the Arab world family remaining the primary political • High GDP per capita and administrative actor exports. It aims to replace low-value crops with practices, and its needs fit Australian capabilities • Islamic society, with the role of Islam • Only G20 country in the region imported commodities, reflecting the expanding well, with a fast-growing, young population; • Owner of 16% of the world’s proven cross-cutting the composition of middle class’s demand for higher-quality proteins established banking system; solid infrastructure; petroleum reserves economic law, as well as other policy • Broad and ambitious socio-economic areas and consumption patterns and grains. Geopolitical risks that threaten and generally low duties and trade barriers. It is reform plan, Vision 2030 • Resource distribution and climate GCC unity present opportunities to capture re- important to note that unlike elsewhere in the • Accelerated FDI since the Future conditions leading to diverse patterns export market share. The business community region, bribery is a serious crime in the country. Investment Initiative forum in 2019 of settlement and economic activity • Rapid expansion of the grocery retail • Development has fallen behind the and food-processing sectors Vision 2030 schedule, although goals Opportunities Challenges Untapped global export potential • Visitors for Hajj and Umrah pilgrimage are likely to be met the year after • EU accounts for over • Rising tourism expected from relaxation • Sensitivity to branding and materials Grains • Wheat for human consumption • Barley: $667.3m 90% of grain imports of visitor visa rules content • Barley and alfalfa for feed and fodder • Wheat, excluding durum: $92.9m • Delayed payments • Russia accounts for half • Production bans at times due to water shortages • Alfalfa: $23.2m of barley imports Dairy • Bulk dairy products and cheese • Competition from New • Milk powder: $51.2m Opportunities Threats • Ingredients • Cheese: $85.8m Zealand, the EU and • Increasing reliance on dairy imports • Processed cheese: $106.9m • Significant public spending, consumer • Geopolitical threats the UAE • Government’s promotion of healthy eating • Butter: $62.6m subsidies and individual benefits • Heavy reliance on Suez Canal • Re-exports from • Growing acceptance of Western diets • Fresh cheese: $60.7m • Strong logistics infrastructure and • Continued depreciation of the riyal otherwise restricted • High cost of converting desert into farmland • Concentrated milk/cream: $42.1m connections to international markets • Re-exports through the GCC from countries of origin • Recent changes in GCC trade rules • Low-fat milk powder: $41.4m • Balancing the workforce: 13% women markets whose imports are restricted in Seafood • Prepared/preserved tuna: $136.3m • Inability to meet domestic demand and Saudi Arabia (e.g.,Turkey) • Fish nes, frozen: $120.6m growing product diversification needs • Move towards adherence to a single • Number-one consumer in the GCC • Consumption remains • Shrimps, prawns, frozen: $93m • Amendment of rules on imports standard means exclusion of other • National campaign promoting consumption relatively low • Fish nes, whole fresh: $66.3m from other GCC countries to exclude international standards, which may • Fish fillets, frozen: $55.7m goods made in free zones or using create significant market access • Fish meat, frozen: $29.4m Israeli inputs from preferential tariff restrictions for industrial and Meat • Beef: Competition from • Live sheep: $414m concessions consumer product exports Brazil, Pakistan and India • Bovine cuts, boneless, • Government decision to allow 100% • Australia is a top supplier of beef, sheep and goat • Sheep and goats: frozen:$185.2m ownership in wholesale and retail sector • Middle-class adoption of protein-based diets Competition from New • Growing tendency to see the quality of a • Bovine cuts, boneless, fresh:$145.7m • Rising tourism Zealand • Sheep carcasses, fresh: $30.9m product, and the terms under which it is • Halal restrictions • Sheep cuts, bone in, frozen: $60.6m offered, as the primary drivers of a deal Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics source: intracen.org 30
Qatar Diana Monis Business Development Manager Australian Trade and Investment Commission
Qatar Market Potential Qatar moved quickly in the early weeks of the pandemic to support the economy 2022 FIFA World Cup in numbers March 4th Qatar Central Bank (QCB) cut the deposit rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 1.5%, the lending rate by 75 bps to 3.5% and the repurchase rate by 50 bps to 1.5% Up to $6.5bn 70,000 March 12th 1.5m for the construction hotel rooms to be The General Tax Authority issued a circular announcing the extension of the tax return deadline from April 30 to June visitors of new stadia made available 30. The deadline was later extended again to August 30. for fans March 16th Qatar announced a QR75bn stimulus package – equal to 13% of GDP – to shore up small businesses and hard-hit sectors, including through six-month exemptions on water and electricity payments. QCB lowered the deposit rate by another 50 bps to 1%, the lending rate by 100 bps to 2.5% and the repurchase rate by 50 bps to 1%. March 25th Hamad International Airport 76 km of rail laid along the QCB introduced a zero-interest repo window of QR50bn – or 9.3% of GDP – to provide liquidity to banks for postponing to boost annual capacity new Doha Metro, serving loan installments or granting new loans from 30m in 2020 to 37 stations 53m by 2022 March 28th The Qatar Mobile Payment System launched to provide a secure method for immediate electronic payments March 30th The Qatar Finance and Business Academy launched Azm to assist entrepreneurs with mitigating the key strategic risks associated with the pandemic, focusing on the financial sector Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: worldbank.org; qatar2022.qa 34
Qatar Food Retail Qatar’s retail restaurant industry is MOST POPULAR FOOD RETAILERS IN QATAR The consumption of a wide range of organic products is set to expand expected to expand significantly over the significantly in Qatar over the next few years coming years, with a major boost to come Food retailer Number of stores Health & wellness Organic Organic CAGR (%) from the country’s hosting of the 2022 products ($ m) beverages ($ m) packaged food ($ m) 54 supermarkets FIFA World Cup, which the authorities 1000 20 expect to attract up to 3m visitors. The 13 retail stores government is currently in talks to secure 750 15.2 15 as many as 1m Covid-19 vaccines to ensure 5 hypermarkets & all fans are properly immunised ahead of 5 supermarkets 500 10 8.3 the event. Another important driver of 5.4 growth in the food retail segment is the 5 retail stores 25 5 numerous malls expected to come on-line in the next few years. At the same time, 0 2020 2021 2022 0 Safari Group 4 retail stores long-term initiatives associated with Qatar National Vision 2030 are encouraging local food outlets to expand into regional and to Covid-19. The pandemic 32.4% 32.3% international markets. More recently, with has shifted consumer habits of respondents 44.6% the pandemic forcing restaurants to adjust, globally, and retailers need to ate many more increased fruit & drank more water cloud kitchens have become increasingly accommodate new preferences healthy foods vegetable consumption prevalent as establishments sought moving forwards. A survey to bolster their delivery and takeaway carried out by researchers in offerings. This has tied in with e-commerce Qatar in May-June 2020, and 44.5% 32.4% 28.7% trends in the retail sector more broadly, later published in the journal decreased their decreased their ate less candy, Sustainability, revealed the consumption of unhealthy consumption of cookies, cakes & with the use of web- and app-based food- following pandemic trends: foods, such as fast food unhealthy snacks pastries delivery platforms rising significantly due Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics source: bolstglobal.com 42
Qatar Distribution Channels Qatar’s retail sector has multiple large Key market players players in its ranks, including Al Meera, which operates over 50 supermarkets Supermarkets Seafood Dairy Red Meat Grains and hypermarkets in the Gulf state, and Saudia Group, which manages many Al Meera Delta Group Doha Food Services Delta Group Qatar Flour Mills hypermarkets and department stores. France’s Casino grocery chain partnered with Al Meera in 2011 to develop a chain Al Duhail Fodder Doha Import and Export Al Zaman International of Géant hypermarkets in Qatar, before Géant Centre Benia Qatar Catering and Trading & Food Trading opening the first Monoprix store in the Company country in 2013. Another French brand, Carrefour, has been present in Qatar since Deliopolis Quality Food Qatar Meat Production Monoprix Dar Al Khaleej Fresh Fish Aqsa Foods 1999 through a franchise agreement. Supplies Company There were five Carrefour supermarkets and five hypermarkets nationwide as of mid-2021. While numerous barriers to Carrefour Benia Qatar Friendly Food Qatar Benia Qatar Friendly Food Qatar entry remain, some restrictions regarding foreign ownership and the required representation are being lifted. Still, Deliopolis Quality Food Deliopolis Quality Food many steps to establishing a business in Lulu Hypermarkets Supplies Supplies Qatar require some level of connection. Purchasing a franchise, deploying marketing campaigns, creating a joint venture and licensing all require some Safari Group Friendly Food Qatar form of local ownership or involvement. Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: worldbank.org; motc.gov.qa 43
Qatar Dairy Dairy consumption is on Number of cattle in Qatar, 2016-19 the rise in Qatar as local Qatari dairy producer Baladna preferences change and expanded rapidly 50,000 the expatriate population following the 2017 trade embargo expands. As with other 40,000 countries in the Gulf, Qatar The company has 30,000 has made a concerted effort 22,754 cattle and in recent years to ramp up produces 247 products 20,000 domestic food production to help alleviate food It manages one of the largest 10,000 security concerns. This was cattle farm in the region, particularly important after covering 0 the imposition of a trade 2.4m sq metres 2016 2017 2018 2019 embargo by the country’s neighbours in 2017. After the embargo Qatar was able to significantly increase The country is 100% self-sufficient in milk its self-sufficiency on several fronts – including The Qatari dairy product market was Domestically produced dairy products valued at $623.4m in 2020, and is in dairy, as the country is accounted for 84% of the market in 2020, up expected to grow at a compound now fully self-sufficient in annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% Baladna raised from 28% in 2016 milk. Indeed, 84% of dairy between 2021 and 2026 almost $400m products consumed in 2020 on the Qatar Stock Dairy products are was domestically produced, Exchange in 2019 exported to Oman, Afghanistan and Yemen up from 28% in 2016. Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: mordorintelligence.com; baladna.com 35
Qatar Seafood Composition of fish product imports by value, 2020 (%) 3.6 In 2020 Vietnam The value of the Qatari fisheries and Q atar ’s fisheries an d aquaculture market is set 17.4 and Singapore aquaculture sector is forecast to grow from for growth in the coming were Qatar’s $148.2m in 2020 to $198.3m in years, and is projected to Frozen fish fillets top sources for 2026, with a CAGR of 5% fish, with the expand from $148.2m in Fresh & chilled fish two countries 2020 to $198.3m in 2026 fillets and other accounting for over – a CAGR of 5%. This fish meat The value of imported fish grew from 50% of imports $1.2m in 2007 to $6.7m in 2020 rising demand in seafood Frozen fish meat products has been driven other than fillets by an increase in health 79 consciousness and shifting Value of fish imports from top-trading partners, 2020 Value of fish imports, 2012-20 ($ m) consumer preferences. While there is no large-scale VIETNAM 12 commercial fish farming in SINGAPORE Qatar, the government plans 10 THAILAND to expand the sector to NORWAY 8 meet the country’s growing needs while bolstering self- LITHUANIA sufficiency through offshore OMAN 6 fish stocks and facilities THE NETHERLANDS such as shrimp farms. In 4 TANZANIA November 2020 Qatar launched its first offshore UGANDA 2 aquaculture project using DENMARK floating cages of sea bass. 0 0m 0.5m 1m 1.5m 2m 2.5m 3m 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Agribusiness Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: trendeconomy.com; mordorintelligence.com; comtrade.un.org 36
Qatar Grains Market share of Qatar’s top-five trading partners for cereal grains by value, 2020 Import value of cereal grains, 2014-20 ($ m) 5 In April 2021 Al Rayyan Agricultural 69% 4 announced it would begin cultivating UK organic wheat in Qatar, the first 3 venture of its kind in the country. 2 The group is targeting an output of 2500 tonnes for the first season. 1 The move is part of Qatar’s broader 0 push to establish greater food self- 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 sufficiency, an agenda that gained Import structure of cereal grains greater urgency during the trade embargo imposed by neighbouring Rolled & flaked grains of oats countries between 2017 and early Rolled & flaked grains of cereals 2021, and later by the Covid-19 other than oats pandemic that put pressure on 86.5% supply chains worldwide. Grains other than oats, maize and rice Unrolled oats Although the import value of cereal grains fell marginally in part due 9.2% 4.9% 2.4% 11.3% to falling regional visitor numbers, Oman India Sri the lifting of the trade embargo Lanka 0.9 1.3% in early 2021, the expected post- pandemic economic recovery and 6.7% 7.8% inbound travel associated with the Malaysia Others 2022 FIFA World Cup are expected The import value of cereal grains totalled $2.4m in 2020 to bolster demand in the near term. Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics source: comtrade.un.org 37
Qatar Meat Robust economic growth, changing Qatar’s imports from In 2020 Australia Meat import structure by value, 2020 (%) consumer trends and an expanding Australia accounted for supplied 81% of Sheep or goat meat: 0.9 population has fuelled increases in 2.35% of global sheep and Qatar’s sheep and fresh, chilled or frozen 0.1 Qatar’s meat market in recent years, goat meat imports in 2019 goat meat imports Poultry meat and edible offal: 0.1 fresh, chilled or frozen 0.7 with the country ranking as the second- 0.7 Bovine animal meat: fresh largest per capita consumer of sheep Per capita sheep meat consumption in MENA, 9.4 or chilled meat in the GCC after Bahrain. 2020E (kg carcass weight equivalent per person) Bovine animal meat: frozen 39 Bahrain 12.1 Swine meat: fresh, chilled Qatar Strong post-pandemic economic Kuwait or frozen recovery projections, as well as the Oman Edible offal of bovine animals, substantial arrival of visitors expected UAE sheep and goats Jordan for the 2022 FIFA World Cup and beyond, KSA Other meat and edible offal: fresh, chilled or frozen are positive indicators of continued Iran Meat and edible offal: salted, in growth in the decade ahead. Lebanon brine, dried or smoked Egypt 37 0 5 10 15 20 Other Although the country still imports a Qatar’s top import partners, 2020 ($ m) Value of meat imports, 2018-20 ($ m) majority of its red meat products, the 2018 2019 2020 Australia Australia lifting of the trade embargo imposed Spain Pakistan by some neighbouring countries in India Brazil Sheep & South Africa South Africa June 2017, coupled with the Covid-19 US Goat Pakistan pandemic, have helped accelerate the Sudan New Zealand march towards the food self-sufficiency Kenya India 230.9 206 198.3 New Zealand Netherlands and security objectives laid out in Qatar Italy Sudan National Vision 2030, the country’s long- Beef Argentina Ireland term economic development strategy. 0 50 100 150 200 0 5 10 15 20 Sheep & Goat Beef 50.3 53.2 61.2 Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics sources: mla.com.au; trendeconomy.com 38
Qatar Conclusions & Recommendations Strengths Weaknesses • Second-largest exporter of liquefied • 85% of population estimated to be natural gas, behind Australia foreign nationals, whose rights are Qatar is a substantial market for live animals, there is scope to increase exports to Qatar as • Diversification, predominantly through limited despite recent reform seafood, grains and seeds for planting – all the country diversifies its trading partners. large-scale projects, has seen Qatar • Preferential treatment given to fare better than other Gulf nations suppliers using local content in of which are not subject to import duties Local knowledge is crucial in the market, since the oil price decline in 2014 government procurement or quotas. The 2017 embargo considerably where a reliable domestic business partner is • Strong post-pandemic rebound • Lack of transparency in the market, complicated food trade routes, as Qatar imports essential to access government tenders and expected, with GDP growth to surpass although corruption does not generally pre-pandemic levels in 2022 and 2023 affect business the vast majority of its food needs and nearly significantly improve exporters’ chances of • Politically and economically stable, with • Cumbersome bureaucracy for certain 40% of these shipments previously entered success in general. It is highly recommended extremely low unemployment procedures • Qatari riyal the only currency not to the market via Saudi Arabia. Although strong to vet business contacts in regard to their come under pressure amid plummeting investments in local food production continue, reputation, financials and marketingexpertise. oil prices and the Covid-19 pandemic • No capital controls or restrictions on the repatriation of profits Opportunities Challenges Untapped global export potential Opportunities Threats Grains • Current restrictions on • Black Sea region normally dominates Qatar’s wheat exports from Black wheat imports • Wheat, excluding durum: $34.7m • Rapidly expanding population with high • Dependence on natural gas receipts Sea region • Australia supplies half of the country’s barley • Barley: $42.5m purchasing power with large downside risk related to • Imports expected to pick imports, followed by France, Russia and • Alfalfa meal and pellets: $18.5m • Despite advances towards self- commodity price depreciation up post-pandemic Ukraine sufficiency in several categories, food • Regional disputes and political Dairy • Domestically produced dairy products security continues to be a top priority tensions, particularly given Qatar’s accounted for 84% of the market in 2020, up • Cheese: $8.3m for Qatar geographic location, as seen by the • High demand growth from 28% in 2016 • Yoghurt: $7.4m • Strained relations with other Gulf unified restriction of the use of air, land • Restrictive import conditions on white cheeses • Butter: $10.4m nations has led Qatar to find new and sea routes by Saudi Arabia, the and ultra-high-temperature-processed milk suppliers UAE, Egypt and Bahrain in 2017 Seafood • Shrimp and prawns: $19.5m • Significant public spending to diversify • Strong economic relationship with • Competition from Vietnam, Singapore and • Fish fillets: $9.8m the economy away from natural gas the US, which represents the largest • High demand growth Thailand • Whole fish, frozen: $12.5m resources, leading to a boom in other source of imports and foreign direct • Whole fish, fresh: $10.4m industries – namely construction – investment ahead of hosting the 2022 FIFA World • Scams targeting international Meat • Australia is top beef, sheep Cup companies and goat meat supplier • Cancellation of lamb subsidies • Lamb carcasses, fresh: $84m • Government focus on increasing the • Focus on reducing external food • Qatar second in GCC for • Competition from Brazil and Pakistan in beef • Live sheep: $103.8m tourism sector’s share of GDP dependence, notably dairy imports sheep consumption Agri-business Expansion Initiative Graphics source: intracen.org 45
UAE • Abu Dhabi Agriculture and Food Safety Authority – http://www.adafsa.gov.ae/ • Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi – https://www.scad.gov.ae/ • Environmental Agency Abu Dhabi – https://ead.gov.ae/ • Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry – https://www.dubaichamber.com/ • Dubai Municipality – https://dm.gov.ae/ • Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre – https://fcsc.gov.ae/ • ZAD – https://zad.gov.ae/ • UAE Ministry of Climate Change and Environment – https://www.moccae.gov.ae/ Key Links Gulf Saudi Arabia • General Authority for Statistics – http://stats.gov.sa/ • Ministry of Tourism – https://mt.gov.sa/ • Vision 2030 – https://www.vision2030.gov.sa/ • Unified National Platform – https://www.my.gov.sa/ • Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority – https://zatca.gov.sa/ • Saudi Food and Drug Authority – https://www.sfda.gov.sa/ • Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organisation – https://saso.gov.sa/ • Fasah Platform – https://www.fasah.sa/ Qatar • Planning and Statistics Authority – https://www.psa.gov.qa/ • Qatar Clearance Single Window – https://ecustoms.gov.qa/ • Ministry of Public Health – https://www.moph.gov.qa/ • Ministry of Transport and Communications – https://motc.gov.qa/ • General Authority of Customs – https://www.customs.gov.qa/
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