GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends - Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe Democracy & Resilience Programme
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GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe Democracy & Resilience Programme www.globsec.org
2) GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe (3
1. 2.
Introduction Key highlights
The Central and Eastern Europe region began recording
its first cases of COVID-19 in March 2020, initiating a race About the data 1. A majority in Central and 5. Only 5% of respondents, on
to stop the spread of the virus and avert casualties. A
The data included in this brief was collected in ten
Eastern Europe want to get average, mention Sputnik V
year later governments are now challenged with swiftly
vaccinating their populations to achieve herd immunity Central and Eastern European countries (Austria, vaccinated. Outliers include as their vaccine of choice.
Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,
before vaccine-resistant mutations emerge.
Poland, Romania and Slovakia) in March 2021 based on a Bulgaria and Romania. Slovaks are outliers on this
Societal buy-in, however, will be required if the representative sample of the adult population reflecting
age, gender, education and place of residence. Over
matter, with 15% indicating a
2.
vaccination programmes are to be successful, an
outcome that is threatened by both anti-vax campaigns 1000 people were interviewed in each country through The willingness to get preference for the Sputnik V
the computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI)
backed by disinformation and conspiracy-theory
spreading outlets and public distrust directed towards method. This brief provides a glimpse into findings that vaccinated increased by 20- vaccine over alternatives.
will be more comprehensively published in June as part
pertinent institutions. Though survey data from October
of our Democracy & Resilience Programme’s annual 30% in a five-month period
6.
2020 pointed to concerns on this front, the latest opinion
polling from March indicates an improved vaccine flagship report, GLOBSEC Trends 2021. across all V4 countries and The age and education
landscape.
doubled in Slovakia. levels of respondents
DEFINITIONS
Central Europe is indeed now on path towards eventually
administering vaccines to around 60-70% of the adult
influence their interest in
population. Fewer people, however, have been brought
on board in Bulgaria and Romania, with interest in
V4: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia
Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
3. A sizeable contingent - vaccination. A total of 60%
vaccination hovering only around 40% in these two around 20% of society - still of university educated
Central and Eastern Europe: V4 + Baltic States + Romania,
societies. Numerous questions are raised against this
backdrop. Will the lower vaccination rates of some
Bulgaria and Austria remains either “rather not” respondents want to get
countries detrimentally impact the headway made by willing or undecided on vaccinated, 15 percentage
their neighbours? And will laggard countries, whose
populations may potentially be unable to travel if they vaccination. points greater than people
lack COVID passports, become more isolated? Or, on the
contrary, will reopenings – and the social and economic
with only an elementary
benefits that come with them spur higher vaccine uptake?
These questions are to be answered over the upcoming
4. Central and Eastern level education. Interest in
year. Europeans express a clear vaccination increases with
Those interested in getting jabbed, meanwhile, express preference for vaccines age, partially reflecting the
trust in scientific bodies in the transatlantic area. A total of
developed in Western vaccination strategies of
48% of respondents eager to get vaccinated indicate that
they would prefer a Western European or U.S. developed countries (e.g. Moderna and CEE countries, which have
shot. Another 34% of this group are keen on any vaccine
approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA). Pfizer) and EMA-approved initially prioritized older
This finding should indeed be a wake-up call to CEE
vaccines. people for inoculation.
governments that are considering the administration of
vaccines not yet approved by the EMA.
4) GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe (5
3.
Willingness to get vaccinated
Countries with fewer people interested in vaccination, nonetheless, include considerable pockets of residents who indicated
that they would “rather not” get vaccinated as opposed to “definitely not”. The potential ambivalence among those who
responded “rather not” or “don’t know” on vaccination, in fact, provides an opportunity to still change attitudes. This “grey
in 10 CEE countries
zone” represents, on average, around 20% of the adult population of the region.
Grey zone: Those who are rather not willing
Vaccination intentions vary considerably across Central and Eastern Europe. The greatest level of interest was measured in
Austria, with 8 in 10 respondents in the country either already vaccinated or open to it. Residents of Bulgaria and Romania,
or do not know whether to get vaccinated
meanwhile, were least inclined to get the jab.
Defitinely & rather yes Defitinely & rather not Already vaccinated (March 2021)
Rather not Do not know
73% 16% 8% Austria
Hungary 8% 4%
Willingness to get vaccinated in CEE
61% 24% 10% Slovakia
Austria 8% 3%
57% 29% 9% Czechia 11%
Poland 7%
57% 27% 9% Poland
Slovakia 12% 6%
55% 29% 11% Estonia Czechia 13% 5%
55% 23% 17% Hungary Lithuania 13% 10%
53% 35% 7% Latvia
Estonia 15% 6%
51% 30% 10% Lithuania Latvia 18% 5%
33% 55% 5% Bulgaria Romania 19% 6%
31% 49% 14% Romania Bulgaria 28% 7%6) GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe (7
October 2020 vs. March 2021:
A shift in vaccination attitudes over five months
The willingness to get vaccinated climbed steeply over a five-month period in Visegrad Four countries, Bulgaria and
Romania. This shift has been most profound in Slovakia where vaccine interest doubled between October and March.
Willing to get vaccinated in March 2021
Willing to get vaccinated in October 2020 + already vaccinated
36% 70% 35% 66% 45% 72% 43% 66% 23% 38% 45% 46%
Slovakia Czechia Hungary Poland Bulgaria Romania
Willingness to get vaccinated
rose by 20-30% in V4 countries8) GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe (9
4. Vaccine preference by country
Western European or American. such as Pfizer or Moderna
Preferences for
Any vaccine approved by the European Union Medicines Agency
Russian, such as Sputnik
particular vaccines Austria 40% Slovakia 23%
26% 19%
2% 15%
The survey findings indicate that people are more willing
to get vaccinated in all ten CEE countries if they are
Poland 34% Romania 20%
administered a Western vaccine (e.g. Moderna or Pfizer)
or an EMA-approved vaccine. These figures far surpass
18% 9%
the share of respondents most interested in the Sputnik
V shot.
1% 1%
Disinterest in Sputnik V holds true even in Bulgaria
despite the prevalence of pro-Russian sympathies in
the country. Similar tepid interest was measured in Lithuania 29% Latvia 20%
Hungary even though it is the only EU country currently
administering the vaccine and expending considerable
16% 19%
muscle to promote it1.
2% 10%
Slovakia is an outlier on Sputnik V, with men (18%)
drawn more to the vaccine than women (13%). Age (20%
of people between 45 and 64 prefer Sputnik V) and
education (19% of respondents with lower educational Estonia 26% Hungary 20%
attainment prefer Sputnik V) also appear to influence
attitudes towards the vaccine. 18% 22%
6% 4%
Czechia 25% Bulgaria 13%
27% 10%
3% 7%
Answers to question “If you had a choice, which vaccine from the following would you prefer?” Options provided: 1) Western European
or American (such as Pfizer or Moderna); 2) Russian (such as Sputnik); 3) Chinese (such as Sinovac); or 4) any vaccine approved by the
European Union Medicines Agency.
The results are presented as a percentage of the adult population for each country. The question of vaccine preference was, however,
1 https://www.dw.com/en/hungary-government-uses-vaccine-campaign-to-lash-out-at-political-opponents/a-57137738 posed only to those who responded they are “definitely” or “rather” planning to get vaccinated .10) GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe (11
The preferences of the public in the CEE region towards Percentage of adult population willing to get vaccinated
Western/EMA-approved vaccines vs. Sputnik V by EMA-approved COVID-19 vaccines by country
ESTONIA
18%
43%
LATVIA
19%
LITHUANIA
16%
5%
POLAND
Western 18%
Sputnik V
+ EMA approved
CZECHIA
The proportion is calculated as an overall average of the adult
population’ vaccine preference based on data for each state. 27%
SLOVAKIA
19%
AUSTRIA
26% HUNGARY
22%
Western vaccines, selected by an
average 25% of respondents as ROMANIA
9%
their jab of choice, are the most
trusted across surveyed countries.
An average of 18% of respondents indicate a preference
for any EMA-approved vaccine. Only 5% of people, BULGARIA
meanwhile, are inclined to choose the Sputnik V vaccine 10%
over Western, Chinese and EMA-approved alternatives.
Interest in the Chinese vaccines is negligible apart from
Hungary, where a small proportion of the adult population The results are presented as a percentage of the adult population in each country. The question of vaccine preference was, however,
(6%) would opt for them. posed only to those who responded they are “definitely” or “rather” planning to get vaccinated.12) GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe (13
5.
Willingness to get vaccinated
according to age and
education
An analysis of socio-demographical variables
underscores the fact that vaccination interest is Potential to get vaccinated by age group.
influenced, in addition to between-country variation, by
age and educational attainment within each country.
Austria Bulgaria Romania
Vaccination 100
potential by age 89%
The graphs below display vaccination potential among
79% 79% 81%
different age groups, encompassing people professing
80
that they are “definitely” or “rather” planning to get
79%
vaccinated and those who were already vaccinated at the 74%
time of the survey. A positive correlation was observed
between respondent age and vaccination potential, with
older people more willing to get vaccinated than young. 60 56%
Austria, where vaccine potential is robust among all age
51%
groups, is a regional outlier. Conversely, a 45-percentage
46%
point gap was measured in Latvia between the youngest 44%
42%
and oldest respondents.
40 44%
36% 43%
Among the oldest age demographic (age 65+), Bulgarians
expressed the least interest in vaccination in the CEE Vaccination 40%
34%
region, with only 44% either already vaccinated or open
to getting the jab. This figure stands in stark contrast to potential 31%
their Hungarian peers where vaccination potential was
recorded at 90% for this age group. It is important to
rises with 20 24%
note that, at the time of the survey, Hungary, in contrast
to all other surveyed countries, had already begun
age in V4 and
administering vaccines both approved and not approved Baltic states 0
by the EMA2.
18 - 24 y.o. 25 - 34 y.o. 35 - 44 y.o. 45 - 54 y.o. 55 - 64 y.o. 65+ y.o.
The calculated percentages include people who responded with affirmative answers (“definitely yes” and “rather yes”) on vaccination
2 This information is valid to April 16, 2021. interest or indicated that they are already vaccinated14) GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe (15
Potential to get vaccinated according to Potential to get vaccinated according to different
different age groups of V4 respondents age groups of respondents from Baltic states
Czechia Hungary Poland Slovakia Estonia Latvia Lithuania
100 100
90%
86%
84%
79%
80 80
82%
74% 78%
71% 74%
68% 73% 76%
68% 67% 74%
65% 70% 72%
60% 60% 66% 60% 60% 62%
58% 59%
60 60
54% 58% 61% 60%
58% 56% 58%
55% 55%
52% 46%
50% 49%
46%
40 40
33%
20 20
0 0
18 - 24 y.o. 25 - 34 y.o. 35 - 44 y.o. 45 - 54 y.o. 55 - 64 y.o. 65+ y.o. 18 - 24 y.o. 25 - 34 y.o. 35 - 44 y.o. 45 - 54 y.o. 55 - 64 y.o. 65+ y.o.
The calculated percentages include people who responded with affirmative answers (“definitely yes” and “rather yes”) on vaccination The calculated percentages based on age include people who responded with affirmative answers (“definitely yes” and “rather yes”) on
interest or indicated that they are already vaccinated. vaccination interest or indicated that they are already vaccinated.16) GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe (17
Willingness to get
vaccinated and
educational attainment
The willingness of individuals to get vaccinated is also
linked to educational attainment; people with higher
levels of formal education are generally more likely to get
the vaccine.
This pattern is illustrated, for example, in Latvia’s 36
percentage point gap, the largest in the region, in vaccine
interest between people living in Lithuania. A total of 64%
of Lithuanians with elementary education, nevertheless,
are interested in getting vaccinated, comparing
favourably to those with higher education levels in the
country. Educational attainment appeared to elicit no
effect in Poland.
Average willingness to get vaccinated in CEE region
based on educational attainment of respondents
45%
% of resp. with elementary education
60%
% of resp. with university education
The average of affirmative answers (“definitely yes” and “rather yes”) in response to the question: “Are you planning to get vaccinated
against COVID-19?” among respondents with elementary and university education.18) GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe (19
6.
Annex
The numbers in the tables represent percentages of the respondents. The abbreviations represent the following countries:
AT – Austria; BG – Bulgaria; CZ – Czechia; EE – Estonia; HU – Hungary; LV – Latvia; LT – Lithuania; PL – Poland;
RO – Romania; SK – Slovakia.
Overview of answers to the question: “Are you planning to get vaccinated against COVID-19?” in percentages. Affirmative answers (“definitely agree” and “rather agree”) of respondents on the statement “I would get vaccinated
against COVID-19” in October 2020.
Already Do not know
Definitely yes Rather yes Rather not Definitely not
vaccinated (do not read) SK CZ HU PL BG RO
AT 56.9 15.7 7.5 8.9 8.3 2.7 Definitely agree 16.7 13.7 30.4 22.0 5.4 19.2
BG 11.4 21.4 28.1 27.3 5.0 6.8 Rather agree 19.4 21.7 14.7 21.4 17.9 25.7
CZ 40.1 16.9 12.6 16.7 9.1 4.6
EE 33.7 20.8 14.9 13.7 10.5 6.3 People affirming vaccine willingness (“definitely yes” and “rather yes”) or indicating that they have been “already
HU 45.0 10.2 8.4 15.0 17.2 4.2 vaccinated”, reported in percentages, in response to the question: “Are you planning to get vaccinated against
COVID-19?”.
LV 29.1 23.7 18.0 17.0 7.3 5.0
LT 27.4 23.9 12.9 16.6 9.6 9.6
AT BG CZ EE HU LV LT PL RO SK
PL 39.2 17.8 11.4 16.0 8.5 7.1
18 - 24 y.o. 79.2 23.8 64.9 58.2 52.1 32.5 45.7 51.6 44.4 54.4
RO 19.5 11.9 19.2 29.3 14.3 5.9
25 - 34 y.o. 78.6 30.7 46.0 59.9 58.0 49.9 56.4 59.6 35.9 68.2
SK 44.2 16.7 12.0 11.7 9.5 5.9
35 - 44 y.o. 80.7 40.4 58.3 48.7 59.5 60.0 57.5 54.5 41.9 71.0
45 - 54 y.o. 73.8 34.2 65.5 68.2 73.7 55.4 59.2 60.6 51.1 70.3
Breakdown of adult populations’ attitudes towards vaccination against COVID-19
55 - 64 y.o. 78.7 43.4 72.7 67.2 85.5 62.0 59.8 71.9 55.7 74.1
AT BG CZ EST HU LV LT PL RO SK 65 + y.o. 89.2 44.3 84.3 78.5 90.0 77.5 73.7 82.1 46.4 75.9
Not Not planning to get
16.4 55.4 29.3 28.6 23.4 35.0 29.5 27.4 48.4 23.7
planning/ Do vaccinated Vaccine willingness (“definitely yes” and “rather yes”), reported in percentages, based on the level of educational
not know if Do not know if planning attainment of respondents on the question: “Are you planning to get vaccinated against COVID-19?”.
planning 2.7 6.8 4.6 6.3 4.2 5.0 9.6 7.1 5.9 5.9
to get vaccinated
Western European or AT BG CZ EE HU LV LT PL RO SK
American (such as Pfizer 40.4 13.4 24.7 25.8 19.6 20.3 29.5 33.9 20.4 23.1 Elementary/ without
69.0 30.8 49.1 33.3 50.4 25.9 63.5 59.2 20.0 53.6
or Moderna) formal education
Russian (such as Secondary or
2.2 6.9 3.1 6.4 3.7 10.3 2.5 0.5 0.8 15.4
Sputnik) apprenticeship
Planning 69.9 24.1 53.7 52.6 53.0 24.0 37.6 54.5 26.9 56.3
Chinese (such as without school leaving
to get 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0 exam
Sinovac)
vaccinated
Any vaccine approved Secondary with school
76.8 33.1 58.8 51.7 53.5 50.8 50.7 59.9 29.1 63.6
by the European Union 26.0 9.7 26.9 18.0 22.4 18.6 16.1 18.2 8.5 18.7 leaving exam
Medicines Agency University 79.4 41.7 64.6 67.1 65.2 61.9 54.8 56.7 45.1 65.8
Do not know which
3.8 2.8 2.3 4.2 3.8 3.1 3.1 4.2 1.7 2.7
vaccine
Vaccinated Already vaccinated 8.3 5.0 9.1 11 17.2 7.3 9.6 8.5 14.3 9.520) GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe GLOBSEC Vaccination Trends | Perceptions from Central and Eastern Europe (21 7. Credits AUTHORS: Dominika Hajdu, research fellow Katarína Klingová, senior research fellow Miroslava Sawiris, research fellow Democracy & Resilience Programme This publication and research were supported by the National Endowment for Democracy. GLOBSEC and the National Endowment for Democracy assume no responsibility for facts or opinions expressed in this publication or their subsequent use. Sole responsibility lies with the authors of this publication. © GLOBSEC 2021
olus Tower II P +421 2 321 378 00 Vajnorská 100/B info@globsec.org 831 04 Bratislava Slovak Republic www.globsec.org
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