GOLD Silver Bronze - Technologies to Watch: A Gaze into Greg's Crystal Ball Dr Greg Low - SQLSaturday

5/08/2019

Technologies to Watch: A
Gaze into Greg's Crystal Ball

                                Dr Greg Low

 GOLD

 Silver

Bronze

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Who am I?

            Microsoft
            Regional Director

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5 areas I'm fascinated about
– and you should be too

      Fascination #1:
      Autonomous Vehicles

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       Most common current example

                                                             but what are the real
                                                             impacts?

Image: Kelley Blue Book
https://www.flickr.com/photos/kelley-blue-book/14120763148

Image: Thomson Reuters, LLC

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Image: Mike Edwards
https://www.flickr.com/photos/9057490@N08/13164855284

       When? What changes?

       Luxury cars 2 – 3 years (partial & already happening)
       Base level cars 5 – 6 years
       Autonomous HOV lanes
       Real time lane auctions
       Have you bought your last car?
       Estimate: 2025 – way less car ownership in metro areas

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Image: Simone
https://www.flickr.com/photos/7scout7/2900962721

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Gone or drastically reduced:
Car companies          Driver licensing
Mechanics              Car parks
Dealers                Taxi drivers
Car washes             Truck drivers
Auto parts stores      Much road maintenance
Petrol stations        Revenue from road tickets, fuel
Traffic lights         tax revenues
Traffic policing       Traffic-related litigation income
Much pollution         Car insurance companies

But opportunities:
Emptier roads
Smaller roads (over time)
Travel (over time) much faster yet much safer
New vehicle styles
Premium vehicle offerings
Denser cities
Predictable travel times
New road materials (potentially energy producing)

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What's wrong with this picture?

And more opportunities:
 Increased alcohol sales (good/bad ???)
 New in-transit purchase options
 Transport packaging options (dinner/show/transport)
 Ubiquitous and cheap local goods transport
      (Particularly good for person-person commerce)
 Embedded sensors
      Crime detection and prevention
      Weather forecasting
      Infrastructure conditions

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Socio-political effects:
 Software companies do well ☺
 Very different vehicles
 Very different companies
 Geopolitical shifts from devaluing oil
 Ugly politics from lobbying the death-knell
 Likely to change ambulance provisioning dramatically
 Drastic drop in road deaths/injuries
 Better mobility options for seniors
 Options to securely move children around without parents

But where does this stop?

 Image: Gonzalo Ordoñez
 https://www.flickr.com/photos/109434506@N06/13915609603   Image: David Howard
                                                           https://www.flickr.com/photos/satguru/2542259100

 Image: Derek Σωκράτης Finch
 https://www.flickr.com/photos/sagesolar/8479268476        Image: Ignat Gorazd
                                                           https://www.flickr.com/photos/ignatgorazd/5489929096

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How soon?

            Fascination #2:
            Machine Learning

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Image: Steve Jurvetson
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/6219463656

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                            While machines are already outperforming people in reading X-Rays, last
                            year a supervised robot successfully conducted soft tissue surgery on a pig.
                            It survived just fine.

Image: jasonwoodhead23
https://www.flickr.com/photos/woodhead/21203367024

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Image: Marion Doss                                Image: Andrew Turner
https://www.flickr.com/photos/ooocha/3070059956   https://www.flickr.com/photos/ajturner/15685514648

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Fascination #3:
3D Printing

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          Fascination #4:
          Medical Technology

Genomics
Nanotechnology
Robots

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Genomics

Mapping the cancer genome
Treat patients based on specific genetic makeup
CRISPR
     Edit DNA sequences
     Disable key genes in HIV
     Or in autoimmune diseases like MS
     Potential military uses very concerning
Reprogram yeast DNA to create petrochemicals & plastic

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Other medical favourites:

Organ replacements
True bionics
Nanobots

Fascination #5:
中国科技的兴起

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Language trends

Estimates for 2023
     #1: Mandarin
     #2: Spanish
Why?
     Birthrates

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Know who this is?        Or know what this is?

           张勇

How many of these do you recognise?

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                Social impacts

1816

Life expectancy: 34 years
People in extreme poverty: 94%
Literacy: 19%

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2016

Life expectancy: 71 years (from 34)
People in extreme poverty: 9% (from 94)
Literacy: 81% (from 19)

Where could we be in 2046 ?

Life expectancy: 700 – 800 years ??
People in extreme poverty: close to 0%
Literacy: close to 100%

But a potentially painful transition

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Dislocating how many workers at a time?

 Are we ready? Are we comfortable?

 Detailed knowledge becoming a commodity
 80% of jobs today did not exist 20 years ago
      Likely to occur again within 10 years

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So am I excited or concerned?

Both !

 Thanks for listening ! Stay in touch:
 • Contact me: greg@sqldownunder.com
 • Free stuff:
    • Notes from this session: Download from SQLSat
    • SDU Tools http://sdutools.sqldownunder.com
    • SSMS eBook: http://ssmsbook.sqldownunder.com
    • Podcasts:
      https://sqldownunder.com/pages
      /sql-down-under-podcast
    • Greg's Blog: http://blog.greglow.com
 • Free and paid online on-demand training:
    https://training.sqldownunder.com

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