Hope Springs Eternal OVERVIEW representing a healthy cross section of formats and geographies - Retail Council of Canada

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Hope Springs Eternal OVERVIEW representing a healthy cross section of formats and geographies - Retail Council of Canada
Published: June 2019
                                                                                                                                Spring 2019

  Hope Springs Eternal
  A tough winter gives way to a soggy, late spring but recent sales performance gives a
  glimmer of hope that there will be enough momentum to bring 2019 in on plan.
   The following results are from an RCC survey of large and mid-size members looking at sales and other
   performance metrics for the first 13 weeks of the retail year (February-May MTD) plus the quarter ahead as well
   as a perspective on the balance of 2019. The survey was conducted during the period of May 21-24, 2019.
   representing a healthy cross section of formats and geographies.

  OVERVIEW

   For many retailers the first 13 weeks of 2019, plus May month-to-date, have been a challenge. Vexed by a cold
   and snowy winter with weather extremes that closed stores and left parking lots icy skating rinks, then left to
   face a soggy late spring in central Canada-east, February and March were challenging months for most. The good
   news is April (early spring in BC) was an improvement, and May month-to-date another step forward
   improvement. Neither April nor May’s positive results were enough though to make up for the soft start to the
   year, but the numbers are heading in the right direction and helped narrow the gap. Together record-setting
   employment numbers (best in four decades) and positive momentum give retailers optimism that when, not if,
   spring blooms in central and eastern Canada the toughest months are behind them and there is enough pent up
   demand and momentum to deliver 2019.

   Is anyone seeing growth? Yes, several. And if reading through major online pure-play retailers such as Amazon
   and Wayfair public results tell us anything, it confirms the consumer is shopping and the shift to online continues
   to outpace growth in brick-and-mortar retail with eCommerce up almost 17% year-over-year in March as
   reported by Statistics Canada.
           Spring 2019
                •    57% of respondents say spring sales were down when compared to same store sales from
                     the year before. Even though some respondents forecasted being down this spring, all
                     respondents who reported they were down were also down to plan.
                •    Average same store sales for the period were down -0.38%. Some larger winners brought
                     up the average, but not enough to bring the average into the positives.
                •    Most report slower online sales for the start of the year. Online sales continue to
                     represent a small portion of total sales; just over 7% of total sales (when excluding
                     retailers who do not have bricks and mortar locations).
                •    Hope springs eternal – retailers are still positive that they will make plan and see
                     increased sales. 71% of respondents predict the year’s sales will be up between 1% and
                     5% overall. On average, respondents suggest a healthy increases of 3.9% .

     ©Retail Council of Canada 2019. The content of this report cannot be reproduced in whole or in part without explicit written permission and is
     intended for members of Retail Council of Canada.
Retail Conditions Report – Spring 2019          2

    RCC asked respondents to compare sales in spring.
     •   Spring sales have generally been lower than same
         store sales from last year, with 57% of
         respondents reporting sales were lower. On
         average, down -0.4%

     •   Similarly, most of the respondents’ report being
         down to plan in addition to lower same store
         sales (54% of respondents)

  CUSTOMER BEHAVIOUR
  Notwithstanding dynamic changes in shopping behaviour, the when-not-if spring shoppers should be out in force at
  least for their gardening and home seasonal items once the weather turns in early June in central/eastern Canada.
  So from that perspective within several categories sales are deferred, not lost. Many retailers though reported a
  distinct value conscious bias to consumers for the first part of 2019 – very price sensitive. Canadian consumers have
  always been known as value oriented, but this season so far seemed particularly pronounced – and looking at the
  latest economic state-of-the Canadian household we begin to see why. The Bank of Canada has hiked the
  benchmark interest rate 5 times since mid-2017, home values fell in 2018 for the first time in three decades and
  almost 32,000 Canadians filed for insolvency in the three months through December. This is balanced though
  nationally by a strong economy that created 122,700 jobs in Jan/Feb, the best start to a year in Canada since 1981.

RCC Factoid!
The Easter Holiday came late this year, April 21 versus April 1 in 2018, so most of the retail sales associated with the
holiday would have been pulled out of March and into April, making month-to-month comparisons a bit tricky.

                                                                                           ©Retail Council of Canada
Retail Conditions Report – Spring 2019          3

From Sea to Shining Sea: Results by Region

In British Columbia, while solid enough, growth continues to be difficult to comp off, and now consumers are
dealing with the highest gas prices in North America and what is shaping up to be an early start to the forest fire
season. Hiring remains difficult, and concerns over the cost of living and its effects on crowding out the
discretionary income for many are top of mind for retailers operating in this province.

On the one hand, Alberta offers retailers at the very least percentage growth as sales numbers are relatively easy
numbers to comp-off from a weaker 2018. Retailers are telling us there is light at the end of a long tunnel in the
Province, and there is hope that the new government that can kick-start job creation and take a second look at
regulations that may have been considered as non-business friendly. In the Prairie Provinces, both Manitoba and
Saskatchewan demonstrated strength for most members though there is concern recent trade tussles with China
and their effects on the farm economy might negatively impact consumer spending for the remainder of the year.

Where there is growth: Ontario is playing a big part, though for some, increased competition and a consumer
looking to trade down, particularly on discretionary bid-ticket items, this is a concern. Quebec as a province is a
North Star – a beacon of hope. Statistics Canada tells us that for March (latest numbers available) there was 8%
retail growth in the province - numbers certainly hard to come by elsewhere in the nation. For most, the Atlantic
Provinces are robust, continuing the trend from Holiday, reporting solid, consistent gains.

RCC Factoid!
We observed a bit of jump in Statistics Canada general merchandise numbers for the month of March, released late
in May, and peeling back the results we focussed on the new retail cannabis numbers. For the month of March
retail cannabis sales were $60.54 Million. In absolute terms, as a percentage of March’s retail sales ($29.5Billion –
net auto/gas - up 1.6% YOY) it’s relatively small, but worth remembering that this number was zero in 2018, so that
is a net-new sales number that did not exist in Statistics Canada retail sales numbers last year.

                                                                                        ©Retail Council of Canada
Retail Conditions Report – Spring 2019          4

SPECIAL FOCUS: DRIVING STORE TRAFFIC
What used to be a trend is now a feature of modern retail – store traffic continues to decrease, and incremental
store traffic is tough to come by. While the focus for both time and treasure is shifting to higher conversion rates in
the stores, retailers of all formats continue to refine their models and focus on strategies and tactics to drive
footfall. We asked retailers what were their best practices in terms of driving store traffic, and to reflect on what
they did in the past that they found was less effective so far in 2019.

    •   In-store activations and experiences are now key not only for creating brand and engaging their existing
        customer base, but also for bringing customers (back) to the store. Examples include activities such as
        product demonstrations to local celebrity chefs to clinics and instruction programs. For those in shopping
        malls, in-store activity is attracting shoppers out of the isles and into their stores to check out what all the
        excitement is about. Partnerships with shopping malls, within their communities and influencers were
        also mentioned, although several are taking a second look at the breadth of their paid influencer programs
        in the context of driving traffic.
    •   Print Flyers are still recognized traffic drivers for many, though the increase print and distribution costs,
        plus changing consumer consumption patterns, have accelerated the integration of, or even the complete
        move to, digital flyers. Similarly, partnerships with shopping malls, within their communities and
        influencers are also effective.
    •   Ensuring that they do the most with their existing customers. Loyalty Programs are a key element with
        retailers utilizing both price and product offer strategies as well as campaigns that offer “soft benefits” such
        as early access and exclusive events.
    •   Price Promotions still work to create excitement, carefully calibrated to generate store traffic. We heard
        from several retailers though who are working hard to limit or eliminate price promotion as the sole tactic,
        fearing that customers have/will be trained to visit the store only when they are on deal.
    •   Utilizing the store for online returns or pick-up (BOPIS & BORIS) for those that have the ability and offer an
        appropriate assortment, this is a key traffic driver. We heard from many retailers that this capability was in
        the development pipeline, but acknowledged the many complexities behind flawless execution.

MARGINS AND INVENTORIES
For most retailers, inventory was up or flat through the spring (67% of respondents), with very few members
reporting lower levels. Accordingly, turns were generally down or flat (79% of respondents)
Through the spring, most reported margins down, with a higher portion of respondents reporting lower margin
dollars (67% of respondents). We continue to see growth in the online space, though online sales represent a
smaller portion of total sales (based on respondents, for those with bricks and mortar, online sales represent just
over 7% of total sales)

                                                                                           ©Retail Council of Canada
Retail Conditions Report – Spring 2019          5

• Increases in average tickets slowed in
  comparison to December’s numbers. Still,
  43% reported a higher avg. ticket in spring.

• Well over half of respondents reported a
  higher avg. basket in Spring; taken in
  conjunction with falling Margin % and lower
  inventory turns, this likely suggests greater
  discounting.

 RCC Factoid!
 We asked retailers if they were seeing any
 changing patterns in consumer returns – up,
 down or sideways. The general consensus
 was there was little to no change year-over-
 year in overall percentage/consumer
 behaviour.

SPECIAL FOCUS: Thoughts on Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML)

We wanted to begin benchmarking and understanding where retailers were in Canada in terms of utilizing AI/ML in
their business. What we found was a wide spectrum, from retailers who are just starting to have the conversation,
to those that were baking AI onto the short term strategic roadmap, to merchants operating use-case pilots
through to fully integrated AI programs already entrenched in the business.

Where merchants were utilizing AI, it was in one of three areas:

    •   Customer Service/Chatbots: helping to efficiently handle routine, frequent requests (e.g. order status) and
        triaging incoming issues so they are routed to the appropriate live customer service representative

    •   Merchandise planning and replenishment: much interest and early use-case development around
        harnessing AI’s immense predictive powers to forecast inventory, store-by-store assortments and
        warehouse management systems

    •   Robotics: whether nested in the supply chain operating systems or even on the shop floor running robots
        that scan the shelves for stock and stock-outs, the intersection of AI and robotics is already yielding results

Where merchants see AI becoming important:

    •   Either through partners or directly, managing sophisticated external advertising and promotional
        campaigns to yield optimal ROI on marketing programs

    •   In conjunction with loyalty and CRM programs, helping make the most relevant offers possible to
        consumers by looking at vast fields of consumer shopping data and tailoring the right offer, at the right
        time, via the right media

                                                                                           ©Retail Council of Canada
Retail Conditions Report – Spring 2019         6

APPROACHING THE HALFWAY MARK IN THE CALENDAR: PROSPECTS FOR 2019

In our first survey of 2019, 78% of respondents anticipating growth between 1%
and 5% for the year. We see that the number of respondents who predict the year
will be UP1-5 has fallen: down to 56%. With that change, the number calling
‘Down’ or ‘Flat’ has also increased, with the number predicting UP5+ remaining
nearly flat. Many respondents indicated that they were down to plan, or down
overall in spring. Notwithstanding this, most respondents still expect to make up
for slower sales in the back half of the year. Of participating retailers, the average
year-over-year growth climbed a point, to 3.9%.

Most retailers report that Merchandise Pricing
will remain flat over the course of 2019. That
said, 18% predict that costs will rise.

While Retail is continually dedicated to keeping
prices low, we see that some 15% of
respondents are predicting increases to their
retail prices this year, under the pressure of
increased merchandise costs, as well as ongoing
adjustments to a wave of increases to labour
costs from 2018.

The Voice of RetailTM podcast

                                                               The Voice of RetailTM is a weekly podcast produced
                                                               & hosted by retail pioneer and veteran Michael
                                                               LeBlanc brought to you in conjunction with Retail
                                                               Council of Canada.

                                                               Each and every week we talk to some of the most
                                                               interesting people in retail and along with expert
                                                               commentary take listeners through a curated look
                                                               at the top retail stories from Canada and around
                                                               the world.

                                                               Listen on iTunes or Spotify, or wherever you listen
                                                               to podcasts, and by clicking the following link:
                                                               retailcouncil.org/the-voice-of-retail-podcast

                                                                                           ©Retail Council of Canada
Retail Conditions Report – Spring 2019                7

 RCC ASKED RETAILERS: “WHAT KEEPS YOU AWAKE AT NIGHT?”
 As the year begins to unfold, the sleepless nights are starting to add up – here is a glimpse of what retailers are
 thinking about when they are counting sheep:

     • Consumer confidence & discretionary spending
 A perennial issue with several different nuances, retailers are concerned that between the high cost of housing in
 Canada’s major cities, Vancouverites facing the highest gasoline prices in North America, various and sundry
 government taxes, there isn’t much left on the table for consumers to spend at retail, particularly higher-end
 discretionary purchases.

     • ROI for technological investments
 Retailers are committed to investing in the technology that it takes to compete and drive their business forward, but
 they worry that the days of seeing lasting incremental improvements are in the past – that the dollars invested are
 only allowing them to keep up, not get ahead of the curve. So in other words the satisfaction and longer-term
 benefits of technological investments are harder fought, and the victory laps shorter.

     • Climate change
 As the many instances of extreme weather begin to impact different regions across the nation, merchants and
 operators alike are trying to assess the short term risk and long term implications of changing weather patters, short
 term extreme weather episodes and the collision of seasons into one another. Whether it is spotting an “out-of-the-
 blue” cost line item related to the purchase of additional salt for their parking lots, multiple days of store closures due
 to extreme weather or a delayed spring and extended summer, retailers are wondering how and where to adjust.
 Most retailers are now increasing focus on disaster planning. But how should retailers adjust their seasonal fashion
 buys and promotional strategies when customers are still wearing capris in October?

A SPECIAL THANKS

RCC and the authors would like to express their thanks and gratitude to the many retailers that participate in this
report, both new and long-standing. We hope that the brief 1:1 phone interviews that form the body of knowledge
for this report add some value to the participating members. They certainly are crucial to the publication of this
report and the retail industry as a whole. Please contact mleblanc@retailcouncil.org if you would like to learn more
about contributing to Retail Conditions Report.

                                                                                                                 ©Retail
  ©Retail Council of Canada 2019. The content of this report cannot be reproduced in whole or in part without explicit     Council
                                                                                                                       written     of Canada
                                                                                                                               permission and is
  intended for members of Retail Council of Canada.
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