HORIZON BREXIT: THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF FP/H2020 PARTICIPATION AND THEIR ECONOMIC IMPACT
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HORIZON BREXIT:
THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF FP/H2020 PARTICIPATION
AND THEIR ECONOMIC IMPACT
Nicola Francesco DOTTI, André SPITHOVEN and Walter YSEBAERT (VUB)
10/Dec/2018 JRC Workshop on
"Perceptions and personal attitudes across the European public opinion”WHAT IS THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC
IMPACT OF BREXIT ON THE
FP/H2020?
2OUTLINE
1. INTRODUCTION
2. THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF FP/H2020 PARTICIPATION
3. BREXIT & THE FUTURE ‘HORIZON EUROPE’
4. REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON THE UK AND BELGIUM
5. CONCLUSIONS
3THE CASE OF FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME/H2020
INTRODUCTION
4THE EU FRAMEWORK PROGRAMMES (FP)
THE STARTING POINT: A COMPETITIVE, SPACE-BLIND RATIONALE
SINCE 1984, THE EU SELECTS AND FUNDS
‘EXCELLENT’ TRANSNATIONAL R&D+I PROJECTS,
WHEREVER THEY COME FROM ACROSS EUROPE (AND BEYOND).
5ON THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF RDI ACTIVITIES
3 FACTS AS BACKGROUND
1. R&D+I ACTIVITIES ARE UNEVENLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS SPACE
2. GROWING IMPORTANCE OF TRANSNATIONAL FLOWS
(e.g. FP partnerships, Erasmus, co-authorships et al.)
3. KNOWLEDGE DYNAMICS ARE CUMULATIVE
6THE CASE OF FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME/H2020
THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF FP/H2020 PARTICIPATION
7THE EU INTERVENTION
FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME VS COHESION POLICY
TERRITORIAL INNOVATIVENESS
FRAMEWORK PROGRAMMES
/HORIZON 2020
ENHANCEMENT
ACTIVITIES
OF R&D
COHESION
POLICY
REGIONAL CONVERGENCE
TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT
[Source: Dotti, N. F., and Spithoven, A. (2018)
Economic drivers and specialization patterns in the spatial distribution of Framework
Programme's participation. Papers in Regional Science, doi: 10.1111/pirs.12299] 8OUR APPROACH AND METHOD
(CF. DOTTI AND SPITHOVEN, 2018)
ASSUMPTION
FP PARTICIPATION AS INDICATOR OF SCIENTIFIC COMPETITIVENESS
(ONE OF THE POSSIBLE INDICATORS…)
METHOD
ZERO-INFLATED NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION
UNITS
ANALYSIS OF NUTS3 EUROPEAN REGIONS
(EU+ASSOCIATED COUNTRIES)
TIMESPAN
FROM FP5 TO F7 (1999-2010)
9SELECTED FINDINGS
(CF. DOTTI AND SPITHOVEN, 2018)
(1)
FP PARTICIPATIONS FOLLOW ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:
RICH REGIONS GET MORE, GROWING REGIONS INCREASE THEIR
PARTICIPATION
(2)
FP5 PARTICIPATION HAS POSITIVE INFLUENCE ON FP7 PARTICIPATION,
REGARDLESS THEMES (=CUMULATIVE DYNAMICS OF KNOWLEDGE+CROSSDISCIPLINARY SPILLOVER)
(3)
LIMITED OR NO INTERACTIONS WITH COHESION POLICY
(DUE TO TIME LAGS)
10WHEN THE TOP-PERFORMER LEAVE THE COMPETITION
THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON FP/HORIZON2020
11FP/H2020, ?
A ‘SURPRISING’ MISSING CHAPTER ?
OF BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS
?
?
? ?
?
?
?
?
12THE CASE OF THE UK
THE TOP-PERFORMING MEMBER STATE
NET CONTRIBUTION H2020 FUNDING BALANCE
MS TO THE EU BUDGET (AVERAGE 2014-2016, (FUNDING –
(AVERAGE 2014-2016) EXCL. ASSOCIATED COUNTRIES) CONTRIBUTION)
UK 12.9% 16.4% 3.5%
NL 5.3% 8.4% 3.1%
ES 8.1% 9.5% 1.4%
EL 1.2% 2.3% 1.0%
BE 4.2% 5.2% 1.0%
[…]
RO 1.1% 0.4% -0.7%
PL 3.1% 1.0% -2.1%
DE 20.5% 18.0% -2.5%
IT 12.0% 8.6% -3.4%
FR 15.8% 11.1% -4.7%
13HORIZON BREXIT
THE KEY ISSUE
WITH BREXIT, THE MOST COMPETITIVE MEMBER STATE
MIGHT BE EXCLUDED FROM THE COMPETITION FOR FP/H2020 FUNDING
=
? RE-DISTRIBUTION OF THE NET INCOME OF THE UK
[ABOUT 3,5% OF THE FP/H2020 BUDGET TO EU27]
?
+
THE EC PROPOSAL TO INCREASE THE BUDGET OF HORIZON EUROPE
14WHAT HAPPEN WHEN THE TOP-PERFORMER LEAVE THE COMPETITION
IMPACTS ON THE UK AND BELGIUM
15HORIZON EUROPE AFTER BREXIT
3 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
POST-BREXIT
SCENARIO EFFECT ON THE UK EFFECT ON EU-27
AGREEMENT
KEEP CURRENT STATUS MS GIVE ~3,5% OF H/EUROPE
A FULL MEMBERSHIP
(NET INCOME FROM H/EUROPE +3,5%) TO A NON-MS
REDISTRIBUTION OF ~3,5%
B “ASSOCIATION” PAY ONLY ITS PARTICIPATION
OF HORIZON EUROPE BUDGET
EXCLUSION/ REDISTRIBUTION OF ~3,5%
C NO/LIMITED PARTICIPATION
THIRD COUNTRY OF HORIZON EUROPE BUDGET
16ESTIMATING THE IMPACT ON BRITISH REGIONS
NUTS REGION H2020 CONTRIBUTION ESTIMATIONS FOR HORIZON EUROPE
(YEARLY AVERAGE) AFTER BREXIT
MIO EUROS SHARE SCENARIO A SCENARIO B SCENARIO C
UKC North East (England) 36 0,4% 45 45 ~0
UKD North West (England) 79 1,0% 99 99 ~0
Yorkshire and The
UKE Humber 78 1,0% 97 97 ~0
UKF East Midlands (England) 99 1,2% 123 123 ~0
UKG West Midlands (England) 85 1,0% 107 107 ~0
UKH East Of England 174 2,1% 217 217 ~0
UKI London 319 3,9% 399 399 ~0
UKJ South East (England) 164 2,0% 205 205 ~0
UKK South West (England) 96 1,2% 120 120 ~0
UKL Wales 25 0,3% 32 32 ~0
UKM Scotland 148 1,8% 185 185 ~0
UKN Northern Ireland 20 0,2% 25 25 ~0
UKZZ Gibraltar 0 0,0% 0 0 ~0
TOTAL (Mio €) 1.322,5 16% 1.653,1 1.653,1 ~0,0
_ UK Contribution 1.044,2 1.305,2 1.653,1 ~0,0
_ EU27 Contribution 278,4 347,9 0,0 ~0,0
11-12-2018 | 17
SOURCE: Regional R&I Viewer, our own estimations based on H2020 contributionESTIMATING THE IMPACT ON BELGIAN REGIONS
NUTS REGION H2020 CONTRIBUTION ESTIMATIONS FOR HORIZON EUROPE
(YEARLY AVERAGE) AFTER BREXIT
MIO EUROS SHARE SCENARIO A SCENARIO B SCENARIO C
BE1 Brussels-Capital Region 144 1,8% 180 215 215
BE2 Flanders 206 2,5% 258 308 308
BE3 Wallonia 48 0,6% 60 72 72
TOTAL (Mio €) 398 5% 497 594 594
SOURCE: Regional R&I Viewer, our own estimations based on H2020 contribution
18THE MULTIPLIER EFFECT ON BELGIAN REGIONS
BASED ON REGIONAL I/O TABLES BY THE FEDERAL PLANNING BUREAU OF BELGIUM
REGION
H2020 HORIZON EUROPE
(Contribution in Mio Euros) (Contribution in Mio Euros)
Scenario A Scenarios B&C
Brussels-C.R. 144 180 215
Flanders 206 258 308
Wallonia 48 60 72
BELGIUM 398 497 594
Jobs Creation (of which, in R&D)
Brussels-C.R. 915 (430) 1140 (535) 1360 (640)
Flanders 1760 (1010) 2200 (1260) 2620 (1510)
Wallonia 530 (350) 660 (440) 790 (520)
BELGIUM 3205 (1790) 4000 (2235) 4770 (2670)
19KEY MESSAGES AND NEXT STEPS
CONCLUSIONS
20KEY MESSAGES 1/2
FP/H2020 IS NOT A SPACE-BLIND POLICY,
BUT A POLICY FOR STRONG, GROWING REGIONS
BECAUSE KNOWLEDGE IS CUMULATIVE
LEADING TO SPATIAL CONCETRATION.
21KEY MESSAGES 2/2
THE COMPETITIVE RATIONALE OF FP/HORIZON 2020
IS HIGHLY BENEFICIAL FOR THE UK,
MORE THAN ANY OTHER MEMBER STATE
DEPENDING ON THE BREXIT SCENARIOS,
HORIZON EUROPE WILL BENEFIT EUROPEAN REGIONS DIFFERENTLY
22NEXT STEPS
ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF FP/H2020
PROPOSALS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE FUNDING
>>> STAIRWAYS TO EXCELLENCE
ANALYSIS OF JOBS CREATION AND OTHER ECONOMIC
IMPACTS IN ALL EU REGIONS USING RHOMULO
23NICOLA FRANCESCO DOTTI
NICOLA.DOTTI@VUB.BE
@NFDOTTI // WWW.NFDOTTI.ME
ANDRÉ SPITHOVEN
ANDRE.SPITHOVEN@VUB.BE
WALTER YSEBAERT
WALTER.YSEBAERT@VUB.BE
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