HOTELS AFRICA - RESEARCH - Accommodating growth in Africa - Knight Frank

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HOTELS AFRICA - RESEARCH - Accommodating growth in Africa - Knight Frank
RESEARCH

HOTELS
AFRICA
2018

           Accommodating growth in Africa
HOTELS AFRICA - RESEARCH - Accommodating growth in Africa - Knight Frank
HOTELS AFRICA 2018                              RESEARCH

                                                                                            AFRICA HOTELS:                                                                                                                                                         HOTEL MARKET OVERVIEW
                                                                                            ROOMS FOR GROWTH                                                                                                                                                       Hotel supply levels vary greatly across Africa.
                                                                                            The growth potential of Africa is increasingly                                                                                                                         The distribution of Africa’s current                   Elsewhere in Africa, the tourist islands of             Hotel development hotspots in East
    AFRICA IN 2030                                                                          recognised by international hotel operators, investors                                                                                                                 supply of branded and chain hotels is                  Mauritius, the Seychelles and Zanzibar all
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          have a significant presence of branded
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Africa include the major cities of Kenya,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   illustrated by the hotel density map on                                                                        Ethiopia and Tanzania.
                       POPULATION GROWTH                                                    and developers.                                                                                                                                                        pages 4-5. The current hotel stock is                  hotels and resorts. In contrast, some of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Although it is a comparatively well-
                       By 2030, Africa’s population                                                                                                                                                                                                                heavily concentrated in a small number                 Africa’s largest cities, including Kinshasa,
                       will increase by 36% to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Khartoum and Addis Ababa, have only a                   supplied region, North Africa continues
                                                                                            Global and local hotel chains have                                                                                     Africa’s population is growing at a faster      of markets. South Africa has the
                       1.7 billion                                                          targeted Africa as a growth region,                                                                                    rate than that of any other global region;      largest supply, with almost 30% of the                 handful of international branded hotels.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Across Africa, more than half of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  to see new development, accounting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  for around 29% of pipeline projects.
                                                                                            due to both its relative undersupply                                                                                   it is currently home to around 1.2 billion      continent’s chain hotels. The largest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          continent’s capital cities have fewer than              This stems from the expansion of major
                                                                                            of international-quality hotels, and the                                                                               people, but UN projections suggest              hotel markets in South Africa
                       URBANISATION                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       five chain hotels each.                                 multinational chains, and from Middle
                                                                                            expectation of increased demand for                                                                                    that this figure will more than double          are Johannesburg and Cape Town, but
                       By 2030, Africa’s urban                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Eastern hotel developers and chains
                       population will rise by 63%                                          rooms. Underpinning this are Africa’s                                                                                  by 2050 40m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              and that it will pass 4 billion by   chain hotels are spread widely across                  The distribution of pipeline projects varies            entering North Africa.
                            770 million
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   40m end of the century. Growth will be
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   the
                       to                                                                   long-term economic and demographic                                                                                                                                     the country, due in large part to the                  significantly compared with the existing
                                                                                            growth prospects, which have continued                                                                                 increasingly concentrated in the large          extensive hotel networks of local brands               supply, reflecting the increased focus of               Across the continent, development
                                                                                            to attract hotel groups’ interest despite                                                                              cities of Sub-Saharan Africa, with the          such as Protea Hotels, Tsogo Sun and                                                                           activity is being driven primarily by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          international chains on markets currently
                       CITY GROWTH                                                          a slowdown in overall African economic                                                                                 populations of cities such as Luanda,           City Lodge.                                            perceived as being undersupplied.                       the expansion plans of the larger
                       Africa will have 15 cities                                                                                     40m                                                                          Lagos, Dar es Salaam, Nairobi and Addis
                       with populations over                                                growth in recent years.             40m                                                                                                                                                                                       Most strikingly, 35% of projects under                  multinational hotel groups. All of the
                       5in 2030,                                                                                                                                                                                   Ababa forecast to grow by more than             Outside of South Africa, the largest
                            million                                           Pan-African GDP growth dropped to                                                                                                    80% during the 2015-2030 period.                concentration of chain hotels is in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          development in the continent are in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          West Africa, which is home to only
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  major global players have multiple hotels
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  under development across Africa, and
                                 compared with                                2.1% in 2016, its lowest level in more                                                                                                                                               the North African countries of Egypt,
                       7 cities today                                                                      40m                                                                                                     Africa’s fast-growing, economically                                                                    9% of the current supply. The greatest                  several of them have made eye-catching
                                                                              than two40m
                                                                                        decades,
                                                                                              40m primarily
                                                                                                    40m     due to the                                                                                                                                             Morocco and Tunisia. Resort locations
             40m        40m          40m       40m            40m         40m    40m                                                                                                                               developing cities will need increased                                                                  concentration of these projects is                      announcements about their future
                                                                              impact of lower commodity prices on                                                                                                                                                  such as Sharm El Sheikh, Hurghada
                       ECONOMIC GROWTH                                                                                                                                                                             numbers of hotel rooms to                                                                              in Nigeria, primarily in Lagos and                      African plans. Hilton, for example,
                                                                              its major oil-dependent economies.                                                                                                                                                   and Marrakesh are among the biggest
                       Africa’s economy will be                                                                                                                                                                    accommodate both business travellers                                                                   Abuja, where multiple hotels are under                  launched its US$50 million Africa Growth
                       worth US$3.8 trillion                                  However, growth is estimated by the                                                                                                                                                  markets in these countries, but
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   and rising tourist demand. Over the long                                                               development for international brands                    Initiative in late 2017, with the aim of
                       in 2030, more than                                     International Monetary Fund to have                                                                                                                                                  international hotel chains also have a
                       60% bigger than today                                                                                                                                                                       term, the UN World Tourist Organization                                                                including Hilton, Sheraton and Marriott.                adding 100 African properties to its
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   reasonably large presence in commercial
            Tanzania

                        Kenya

                                    Nigeria

                                               Mauritius

                                                              Uganda

                                                                          Namibia

                                                                                              Côte d'Ivoire

                                                                                                                        Botswana

                                                                                                                                              Mozambique

                                                                                                                                                                            Zimbabwe

                                                                                                                                                                                        Egypt

                                                                                                                                                                                                       Tunisia

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   South Africa

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Morocco
                                                                                                                                                               Algeria

                                                                              recovered to approximately 3.5% in                                                                                                   forecasts that international tourist
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   cities such as Cairo and Casablanca,                   The East Africa region also accounts for a              portfolio over the next five years. The
                                                                              2017. The large oil-driven economies of                                                                                              numbers in Africa will grow at one of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   where demand is driven by business                     significant share of pipeline projects, with            activities of other major hotel groups are
                                                                              Nigeria and Angola are gradually moving                                                                                              fastest rates globally. Africa received
                       TOURISM GROWTH                                                                                                                                                                                                                              travellers in addition to tourism.                     26% of the projects under development.                  outlined on pages 6-7.
                       Annual international tourist                           out of recession, while growth rates                                                                                                 57 million international tourist arrivals
                       arrivals will more than double                         have remained resilient in less resource-                                                                                            in 2016, but the UNWTO projects that
                       by 2030 to reach

                       134million
                                                                              dependent countries such as Kenya,                                                                                                   this will reach 134 million by 2030. At
                                                                              Ethiopia, Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire and                                                                                                                                                FIGURE 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   present, Morocco is the top destination
                                                                              Senegal. These countries are forecast to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Number of chain and branded hotels – top ten countries in Africa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   with over 10 million arrivals, but future
Source: UN Population Division, USDA Economic                                 maintain annual GDP growth in the 5-8%                                                                                               growth is forecast to be strongest in the
Research Service, UN World Tourism Organization                               range over the next five years.                                                                                                      East, West and Central regions of Africa.

FIGURE 1                                                                                                                                                                               10.0m 10.3m
Annual international tourist arrivals (millions) – top ten
countries in Africa

                                                                                                                                                           5.3m 5.7m

                                                                                                                               2.2m
                                1.3m 1.4m 1.5m 1.6m 1.7m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          68              60             58              46
                                                                               Mozambique
                                              Côte d'Ivoire

                                                                                                                                                                                        South Africa
                                                                                                                                   Zimbabwe
                                                               Botswana

                                                                                                                                                                                                         Morocco
                                 Namibia

                                                                                                                                                                         Tunisia
                                                                                                              Algeria

                                                                                                                                                           Egypt

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       31          28
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          430             300            153             103

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      SOUTH AFRICA       EGYPT         MOROCCO          TUNISIA          KENYA         MAURITIUS        NIGERIA        TANZANIA      ZIMBABWE    ALGERIA

Source: United Nations World Tourism Organization. 2015 or 2016 data, depending on availability                                                                                                                                                                    Source: Knight Frank Research. Hotel numbers exclude lodges, safari camps, chalets and cruise-hotels. Data as at December 2017.

2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3
HOTELS AFRICA 2018                                    RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    HAMMAMET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               SOUSSE

                                                                     AFRICA HOTEL
         In addition to the well-known international                                                                                                           CASABLANCA                                                                    TUNISIA
         hotel operators, several brands operating
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 DJERBA

                                                                     DENSITY MAP
         solely in Africa are actively growing their
                                                                                                                                                                              MOROCCO
         businesses. These include CityBlue, a
         chain owned by UAE investor Diar Capital,                                                                                             AGADIR
         which has opened hotels in four East                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               CAIRO
         African countries and has signed pipeline                                                                                                                      MARRAKESH                        ALGERIA                                          LIBYA                                                                   SHARM EL SHEIKH
         deals in a further eight countries in East                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          HURGHADA
         and West Africa. Mangalis Hotel Group,
         a subsidiary of Teyliom International, has                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              MARSA ALAM
         opened three hotels in West Africa and has                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           EGYPT
         ten pipeline projects in this region. Azalaï
         Hotels Group has grown from its homeland
         of Mali to have projects opened or under                                                                                                       MAURITANIA
         construction in most major West African                                                                CABO                                                                           MALI
         capital cities.                                                                                        VERDE                                                                                                                                                                               SUDAN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 NIGER                                                                                                     ERITREA
         Other groups that are growing in
         prominence in Africa include Germany’s                                                                                           SENEGAL
         Deutsche Hospitality, Spain’s Meliá Hotels                                                                      THE GAMBIA                                                                                                                               CHAD
                                                                                                                                                                                   BURKINA                                                                                                                                                              DJIBOUTI
         International and Switzerland’s Mövenpick                                                                                                                                   FASO
                                                                                                                                GUINEA                GUINEA
         Hotels & Resorts. Asian hotel operators                                                                                BISSAU                                                                                    NIGERIA
         with projects under development in Africa                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            SOMALIA
         include Thailand’s Dusit International                                                                                                                              CÔTE         GHANA                                                                                                       SOUTH
                                                                                                                                          SIERRA                            D’IVOIRE                                                                                                                                                     ETHIOPIA
         and Minor Hotels Group. Middle Eastern                                                                                           LEONE                                                                                                                   CENTRAL AFRICAN                     SUDAN
         groups active in the region include Rotana                     KEY                                                                                                                                                                                          REPUBLIC
                                                                                                                                                   LIBERIA
         and Emaar Hospitality, which has projects                      Number of branded                                                                                                               BENIN                            CAMEROON
                                                                        and chain hotels                                                                                               ACCRA
         in Egypt under its Address brand.                                                                                                                                                                        LAGOS
                                                                                                                                                                                                      TOGO
         Most international hotel groups have                                                                                                                                                                EQUATORIAL GUINEA                                                                                 UGANDA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     REPUBLIC                                                                    KENYA
         asset-light business models in Africa                                                                                                                                                                                                        OF THE
         whereby they usually operate, but do not                                                                                                                                                                                        GABON        CONGO                  DEMOCRATIC
                                                                        1                   100+                                                                                                             SÃO TOMÉ &                                                                                                                                        NAIROBI
         own, their branded hotels. This creates                                                                                                                                                              PRINCIPE                                                         REPUBLIC                                                              RWANDA
                                                                               Hotel Hotspots                                                                                                                                                                                OF THE CONGO
         opportunities for developers and investors                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 BURUNDI
         to either build or acquire properties
         operated by the major chains. Long                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      TANZANIA                       ZANZIBAR                           SEYCHELLES
         construction times can be a significant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    DAR ES SALAAM
         challenge to brands seeking to grow their
         African portfolios. To circumvent this, some
         groups are pursuing growth strategies that                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  COMOROS
         prioritise the rebranding of existing hotels,       FIGURE 3                                                     FIGURE 4
         rather than the development of new hotels.                                                                                                                                                                                                          ANGOLA
                                                             Distribution of chain and branded                            Distribution of hotel development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               MALAWI
           As is the case in the rest of the world,          hotels in Africa                                             projects in Africa                                                                                                                                         ZAMBIA
           the growth of the Airbnb market has                                        CENTRAL
                                                                                      CENTRAL                                               CENTRAL
                                                                                                                                            CENTRAL
                                                                                       AFRICA
                                                                                       AFRICA                                                AFRICA
                                                                                                                                             AFRICA
           presented a disruptive challenge to
           traditional hotel operators in Africa. While                                    22%%                                                44%%
                                                                             99%%                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ZIMBABWE
           still a very small part of its global presence,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 MAURITIUS
           Airbnb says that it now has 100,000                                 WEST
                                                                               WEST                                                                          NORTH                                                                                                                                                               MOZAMBIQUE
           listings in Africa, accommodating 1.2
                                                                              AFRICA
                                                                              AFRICA
                                                                                                                                                             NORTH
                                                                                                                                                             AFRICA
                                                                                                                                                             AFRICA    29
                                                                                                                                                                       29%%                                                                                                   BOTSWANA
           million guests in the last year. With the                                                        38                    WEST
                                                                                                                                  WEST
                                                                                                            38%%                 AFRICA
                                                                                                                                 AFRICA                                                                                                                     NAMIBIA                                                                                                 MADAGASCAR
           hotel supply in many African cities being         21
                                                             21%%    EAST
                                                                     EAST
           limited and slanted towards the luxury end               AFRICA
                                                                    AFRICA                                               35
                                                                                                                         35%%                                                                                                                                                                                               JOHANNESBURG
           of the market, Airbnb accommodation                                                         NORTH
                                                                                                       NORTH
                                                                                                       AFRICA                                                                                                                                                                                                               SWAZILAND
           provides a cheaper alternative,                                                             AFRICA
           particularly for younger travellers. The                                                                                                                         5%%                                                                                                                                         DURBAN
                                                                                                                                                                            30
       22%%rise of the Airbnb market has yet to have                                                                                                                                                                                                                           SOUTH AFRICA
99%%       a discernible impact on African hotel                                            SOUTHERN
                                                                                                                                                       EAST
                                                                                                                                                       EAST                  SOUTHERN
                                                                                                                                                                             SOUTHERN
                                                                                                                                                                             AFRICA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                LESOTHO
                                                                                            SOUTHERN                                                  AFRICA
                                                                                                                                                      AFRICA                 AFRICA
                                                                                             AFRICA
                                                                                             AFRICA
           performance, but it has demonstrated
           that there is demand for new, flexible and
                                                                                    30
                                                                                    30%%                                                               27                                                                                  CAPE TOWN                                           PORT ELIZABETH
                                                                                                                                                       27%%
           affordable accommodation types across
           the continent. 38   38%%                          Source: Knight Frank Research                              Source: Knight Frank Research                                                          Source: Knight Frank Research. Hotel numbers exclude safari camps and lodges, chalets and cruise-hotels. Data as at December 2017.

         4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5
HOTELS AFRICA 2018                        RESEARCH

MAJOR HOTEL CHAINS IN AFRICA
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL                      TSOGO SUN                                                                                                                    MARRIOTT
                                                                                                                                                                                                    LOUVRE HOTELS GROUP                            HILTON HOTELS & RESORTS
                                                                                            FIGURE 5                                                                  INTERNATIONAL
                                                                                            Africa hotel numbers by chain                                                  149

    149     20                                96      7                                                                                                                                                 41    13                                     39     14
Key Brands in Africa: Protea by             Key Brands in Africa: Southern Sun, SUN1,                                                                                                               Key Brands in Africa: Golden Tulip, Royal      Key Brands in Africa: Hilton, DoubleTree
Marriott, Sheraton, Four Points by          Garden Court, StayEasy                                                                                                                                  Tulip, Tulip Inn, Sarovar                      by Hilton, Curio, Conrad
Sheraton, Le Méridien                       Selected Opening, 2017: SunSquare &                                                                                                                     Selected Opening, 2017: Golden Tulip           Selected Opening, 2017: Hilton Cabo
Selected Opening, 2017: Four Points by      StayEasy Cape Town City Bowl, South Africa                                                                                                              Canaan Kampala, Uganda                         Verde Sal Resort, Cabo Verde
Sheraton Nairobi Airport, Kenya             Pipeline Highlight, due in 2018: StayEasy                                                                                                               Pipeline Highlight, due in 2018: Tulip Inn     Pipeline Highlight, due in 2018: DoubleTree
Pipeline Highlight, due in 2018:            Maputo, Mozambique                                                                                                                                      Algiers Airport, Algeria                       by Hilton Kigali City Centre, Rwanda
Accra Marriott Hotel, Accra, Ghana                                                                                                                                                                  The French-based but Chinese-owned             Hilton is pursuing growth in Sub-Saharan
                                            Tsogo Sun is one of South Africa’s largest
Marriott’s 2014 acquisition of the South    hotel and leisure groups. Its portfolio is                                                                                                              group’s African portfolio mostly comprises     Africa through the conversion of existing
                                                                                                                                   LS
                                                                                                                                  TE                                                                hotels with the Golden Tulip brand. In 2017,   hotels into Hilton-branded properties.
Africa-based Protea Hotels gave it the      largely concentrated in South Africa, but                                          HO
                                                                                                                           C OR 16                                                                  the group acquired a majority stake in the     In 2017, it announced that it will invest
largest hotel network in Africa, which      it has been expanding into the rest of the                                  AC      1
was further expanded by its merger          continent and the Middle East. The group                                                                                                                Indian hotel company Sarovar, which has five   US$50 million over five years to support the
with Starwood in 2016. The group            also operates several Holiday Inn and                                                                                                                   hotels in Africa.                              conversion of around 100 properties.
has a target of having over 200 hotels      InterContinental-branded hotels in
either open or in the pipeline by 2022      South Africa.                                                                                                                                                                                          INTERCONTINENTAL
and is looking to enter new markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                HOTELS GROUP
including Benin, Botswana, Côte d’Ivoire,   CITY LODGE
Madagascar, Mauritania and Senegal.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     28     10
ACCORHOTELS                                   58      4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Key Brands in Africa: InterContinental,
                                            Key Brands in Africa: City Lodge,                                                                                                                                                                      Holiday Inn, Crowne Plaza

                                                                                                                                                                                                        BE
                                                                                                                                                                                                         ST
                                            Road Lodge, Town Lodge, Courtyard                                                                                                                                                                      Selected Opening, 2017: Holiday Inn

                                                                                                                                                                                                         WE 4
                                                                                                                                                                                                           ST
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mutare, Zimbabwe

                                                                                                                                                                                                            2
    116     20                              Selected Opening, 2017: Town Lodge

                                                                                                                                                                                                              ER
                                                                                                                                                                                                              N
                                            Windhoek, Namibia                                                                                                                                                                                      Pipeline Highlight, due in 2018:
Key Brands in Africa: ibis, Mercure,        Pipeline Highlight, due in 2018: City                                                                                                                                                                  Crowne Plaza Nairobi Airport, Kenya
Novotel, Sofitel, Fairmont                  Lodge Hotel, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania                                                                                                                                                                   The InterContinental Hotels Group has a
Selected Opening, 2017: ibis Casa                                                                                                                                                                                                                  relatively modest African pipeline. Recent
                                                                                                TSOGO SUN

                                            One of South Africa’s large hotel
Voyageurs, Casablanca, Morocco                                                                                                                                                                                                                     expansion has come through the opening
                                            chains, the City Lodge group is now
                                                                                                   96

Pipeline Highlight, due in 2018: Fairmont                                                                                                                                                                                                          of the rebranded Holiday Inn in Mutare,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            INTERCONTINENTAL
                                            expanding into other markets in East and

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              HOTELS GROUP
Citystars Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt            Southern Africa.                                                                                                                                                                                       Zimbabwe, a franchised property owned by

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   28
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   African Sun Limited.
AccorHotels’ presence in Africa is
spread across 13 brands, ranging from       RADISSON HOTEL GROUP
midscale and economy operations such                                                                                                                                                                                                               BEST WESTERN
as ibis and ibis Budget, to luxury brands
including Fairmont and Raffles. In 2015,
the group announced plans to open 50          42      20
hotels in Angola in partnership with the                                                                                                                                                                                                             24      9
local investor AAA Activos LDA; so far,     Key Brands in Africa: Radisson Blu,
three hotels have opened under the ibis     Radisson RED, Park Inn by Radisson                                                                                                                                                                     Key Brands in Africa: Best Western, Best
Styles brand.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Western Plus, Best Western Premier
                                            Selected Opening, 2017: Radisson Blu,
                                            N’Djamena, Chad                                                                                                                                                                                        Selected Opening, 2017: Best Western

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            HILT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               RES HOTEL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Plus, Ibadan, Nigeria

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 39 S

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 O
                                            Pipeline Highlight, due in 2018: Park Inn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ORT S &
                                            by Radisson Luanda Kilamba, Angola                                                                                                                                                                     Pipeline Highlight, due in 2018: BW
                                                                                                                                        CIT 58
                                                                                                                                           YL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Premier Collection The Alba, Nairobi, Kenya
                                                                                                                                              OD

                                            Radisson Hotel Group rebranded from
                                                                                                                                                 GE

                                            Carlson Rezidor in early 2018. Its Radisson                                                                                                                                                            The comparatively small size of Best
 KEY                                        Blu brand has over 30 hotels in Africa, while                                                                                                                                                          Western’s African footprint partly reflects
                                            the first African hotel using the Radisson                                                                                                                                                             the fact that its business model is
          Number of hotels in Africa
                                            RED brand opened in Cape Town in 2017.                                                                                                                                                                 uncommon in Africa. It does not own or
                                            Among its pipeline projects, the group has        Source: Knight Frank Research.                          RADIS                                                                                        manage hotels; instead, independent hotel
                                                                                                                                                                                                    S
          Countries present in Africa                                                                                                                      SON                                 OTEL                                                owners operate Best Western-branded
                                            signed an agreement to operate five new           Data as at December 2017.                                  GROU HOTEL                       RE H
                                                                                                                                                              P                       LOUV ROUP
                                            Park Inn by Radisson hotels in Angola.                                                                        42                              G                                                        hotels under licence agreements.
                                                                                                                                                                                             41

6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                7
HOTELS AFRICA 2018                                                              RESEARCH

AFRICA HOTELS                                                                                                                            2017 KEY PERFORMANCE
                                                                                                                                         INDICATORS BY COUNTRY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  FIGURE 7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Historical occupancy rates
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        FIGURE 8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Historical RevPAR performance

PERFORMANCE REVIEW
                                                                                                                                                                                      OCCUPANCY   ADR    REVPAR
                                                                                                                                                                                          %       US$     US$
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  80%                                                                                   US$100

                                                                                                                                            ALGERIA                   MOZAMBIQUE                                                                                       North Africa                                                                           North Africa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sub-Saharan Africa                                                                     Sub-Saharan Africa
At a pan-African level, the hotel sector recorded a
                                                                                                                                              48%                         43%
steady improvement across all key performance                                                                                                             131   63                   145            62            70%                                                                                      US$80

indicators in 2017.
                                                                                                                                          BOTSWANA                      NAMIBIA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  60%                                                                                      US$60

The overall African hotel occupancy rate,                           Africa, according to STR data. The Sub-
as reported by hotel data provider STR                              Saharan Africa Average Daily Rate (ADR)                                   57%         101   57        60%        88             53
Global, was 58.0% in 2017, up from                                  was US$121.35 in 2017, a level which                                                                                                                                                                                                   US$40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  50%
54.9% in 2016. This was primarily driven                            compares well with most other global
by an improvement in the North African                                                                                                    CABO VERDE                    NIGERIA
                                                                    regions. However, this belies a large
occupancy rate, which rose by more                                  variation in ADR across the countries of
than seven percentage points to 54.6%.                              Sub-Saharan Africa, and it reflects the                                   68%         87    60        46%        145            67            40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           US$20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2012

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2017
Occupancy rates across North Africa                                 relative absence of budget and midscale
have been depressed in recent years,
                                                                    hotels in the sample data.                                                                                                                    Source: STR Global                                                                    Source: STR Global
partly due to the impact of heightened                                                                                                   CÔTE D’IVOIRE                  SENEGAL
security concerns on tourism. However,                              At a country level, Mauritius and
the performance of 2017 indicates                                   Seychelles were 2017’s top-performing                                                                                                         FIGURE 9
                                                                                                                                              59%         158   93        71%        147           104
that the sector is gradually recovering;                            markets, in terms of both occupancy and                                                                                                       Key performance indicators, 2017
occupancy was at its highest level since                            room rates. Both markets are dominated
2010, but it remained substantially below

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       AFRICA
                                                                    by luxury resort hotels, and have
                                                                                                                                             EGYPT                    SEYCHELLES
the levels of a decade ago.                                         been relatively immune to the security
In contrast to the volatility of the North                          concerns that have impacted resort
                                                                                                                                              55%         66    36        73%        368           270
Africa region, occupancy in Sub-                                    locations elsewhere in Africa. These
Saharan Africa has been steadier over                               two markets are expected to remain the
recent years, staying close to 60%. The                             continent’s top performing markets in
                                                                                                                                           ETHIOPIA                   SOUTH AFRICA
Sub-Saharan region also consistently                                2018, and they are increasingly popular
records higher room rates than North                                targets for investors.                                                                                                                                              58.0%                                                                                                                 US$62
                                                                                                                                              54%         192   104       64%        92            59                                                                                                US 107
FIGURE 6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                +3.1%                                                        +2.1%                                            +7.8%
Global hotel performance comparison, 2017                                                                                                    GHANA                     TANZANIA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                OCCUPANCY                                                            ADR                                              REVPAR
                   150                                                                                         100                            56%         157   88        54%        137           75

                   120                                                                                         80                            KENYA                      TUNISIA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               55.0%                                                      US$46               60.0%                                                      US$73
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              US 83                                                                      US 121
                                                                                                                                              48%         127   60        53%        66            35                          +7.6%                     -7.9%                         +7.1%                 -0.3%                      +8.2%                          +7.8%
                   90                                                                                          60                                                                                                                                             ADR                      REVPAR                                            ADR                           REVPAR
ADR/RevPAR (US$)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        OCCUPANCY                                                                          OCCUPANCY
                                                                                                                     Occupnacy (%)

                                                                                                                                          MAURITIUS                     ZAMBIA                                                                 NORTH AFRICA                                                   SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
                   60                                                                                          40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: STR Global
                                                                                                                                              80%         211   168       49%        127           62

                   30                                                                                          20                                                                                                  GLOSSARY
                                                                                                                                           MOROCCO                     ZIMBABWE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Occupancy %: The number of rooms sold as a proportion of available rooms for a specified time period

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Average Daily Rate (ADR): A hotel’s total Rooms Revenue divided by the number of rooms sold during the period
                    0                                                                                          0
                         AMERICAS      ASIA-PACIFIC        EUROPE   MIDDLE EAST   NORTH AFRICA   SUB-SAHARAN
                                                                                                                                              56%         114   66        55%        86            47
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR): The total Rooms Revenue divided by the total number of available rooms
                                                                                                    AFRICA                                                                                                         during the period
                          ADR       RevPaR     Occupancy (%)

Source: STR Global                                                                                                                   Source: STR Global

8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            9
HOTELS AFRICA 2018                          RESEARCH

CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW                                                                                                                                                          THE VIEW FROM THE GULF
The hotel sector is one of the most active segments of the African real estate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Additionally, large family groups involved     In the past, North Africa has been a firm
investment market.                                                                                                                                                                                                                      in the hospitality sector are increasingly     favourite with Middle Eastern investors,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        looking at African countries – mainly          due to historic and cultural ties, and this
A series of significant hotel transactions               An example of a recent acquisition by a                      be increased opportunities for investors
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ali Manzoor                          concentrating on largely untapped              is likely to remain the case for the time
have been completed in recent years.                     hotel operator is ONOMO’s purchase of                        and developers to target the budget                                          Associate Partner, Hospitality and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        markets within East and West Africa – as       being. As North Africa is one of the key
These have involved a variety of investors               Inn On The Square in Cape Town, which                        and midscale hotel segments. Emerging                                        Leisure, Knight Frank Middle East
                                                                                                                                                                                                   +971 56 4202 314                     possible locations in which to deploy          outbound destinations for Middle Eastern
including property funds building their                  was previously managed by aha Hotels                         formats such as apartment hotels, which
                                                                                                                                                                                                   ali.manzoor@me.knightfrank.com       capital, as previously preferred regional
African portfolios, international investors              & Lodges. ONOMO has hotels in eight                          are still in their infancy in most of Africa, are                                                                                                                tourists, recognisable brand names
seeking exposure to the sector and hotel                 African countries and has raised €106                        another potential target for investors.                                                                           markets have become unviable due to            arguably offer easier market penetration.
owner-operators growing or restructuring                 million from two investors, CDC Group                                                                                                                                          conflicts and geopolitical issues.             Prime examples include Abu Dhabi-based
                                                                                                                      As is the case across all property sectors,
their African businesses.                                and CIC Capital, to support the expansion                                                                                                                                                                                     Eagle Hills’ 184-key Fairmont property in
                                                                                                                      the scarcity of investible hotel assets                                                                           Overall, these investors are looking
                                                         of its African portfolio.                                                                                                                 Taimur Khan                                                                         La Marina Morocco in Rabat, the Kuwaiti
One of the most visible investors in this                                                                             presents a major challenge to global                                         Senior Analyst, Development          to take advantage of the undersupply
sector is Quantum Global, whose US$500                   A hotel’s branding is crucial to its                         investors seeking to enter African markets.                                  Consultancy & Research,              of international grade hotels, Africa’s        United Real Estate Company’s Assoufid
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Knight Frank Middle East                                                            golf resort development in Marrakesh and
million investment vehicle QG Africa                     attractiveness to investors. Many have                       However, for those able to source the                                                                             population boom and the expected
                                                                                                                                                                                                   +971 56 4202 312
Hotel LP is targeting midscale to upscale                a preference for assets that can be                          best quality stock, the sector offers                                        taimur.khan@knightfrank.com          exponential growth in travel and tourism       Qatari Diar’s Anantara resort in south
business hotels in Africa. Its first two                 rebranded after purchase, rather than                        opportunities to acquire international-                                                                           across the continent.                          west Tunisia.
acquisitions were the InterContinental                   hotels that are locked in to long-term                       standard properties. Hotel investments in
                                                         management contracts. Investors may feel                     Africa will be best suited to investors with                In recent times, Africa’s growing                     From a Middle Eastern perspective, we are      Finally, as the tourism profiles of East
Hotel in Lusaka and the Mövenpick
Ambassador Hotel in Accra. With a sale                   that they can gain value by moving a hotel                   long-term horizons, who can ride out any                    hospitality market has seen increased                 beginning to see something of an uptick        African countries continue to grow
price of US$100 million, the latter was the              to a higher-scale brand but, as the sector                   short-term volatility in the sector, and tap                levels of investment from Middle Eastern              in the activities of renowned investors        – alongside various private-public
largest-ever single-asset hotel deal in Sub-             matures across Africa, there will also                       into its future growth potential.                           hospitality groups. While some investors              and developers building portfolios of          partnerships particularly with Middle
Saharan Africa.                                                                                                                                                                   have been driven to diversify their                   properties across key hospitality hotspots,    Eastern behemoths such as DP World –
                                                                                                                                                                                  holdings due the slowdown in domestic                 particularly Morocco and Egypt in North        we can expect increased investment from
Mara Delta, which was rebranded as
Grit Real Estate Income Group in 2017,                                                                                                                                            markets, others continue to be active in              Africa, as well as emerging locations in       Middle Eastern investors into key markets
has been highly acquisitive across all                                                                                                                                            both domestic and foreign markets.                    Sub-Saharan Africa.                            in this region.
commercial property sectors over the
last few years. It has gained exposure to
the hotel and hospitality sector through

                                                                                                                                                                                    HOTEL MARKET OUTLOOK
its purchase of stakes in four resorts in
Mauritius in two separate transactions.
Another major player in the sector is the
South African REIT, Hospitality Property                                                                                                                                            Many of the continent’s largest cities              oil economies and heightened security          hotel supply in many African cities
Fund (HPF), which is majority-owned by                                                                                                                                              continue to be challenging markets for              concerns in North Africa, have shown           is targeted primarily at affluent
the Tsogo Sun hotel group. Following its                                                                                                                                            hotel operators entering or expanding               that short and medium term risks can           international travellers, there is space
purchase of 29 Tsogo Sun hotels in 2017,                                                                                                                                            in Africa. New hotel developments are               emerge. Developers, investors and
                                                          Mövenpick Ambassador Hotel, acquired by Quantum Global for US$100 million. Photo: © Mövenpick Hotels & Resorts                                                                                                               in the market for midscale and budget
HPF owns 53 hotel or hospitality assets.                                                                                                                                            regularly subject to protracted delays,             hotel operators should weigh such risks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       hotel brands catering more to regional
                                                                                                                                                                                    and there is an ongoing disparity                   against longer-term market prospects.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       and domestic demand.
                                                                                                                                                                                    between the stated pipelines of major               New hotel developments need to
Selected recent African hotel transactions                                                                                                                                          hotel groups in Africa and their ability            be well-timed, correctly located and           Hotel operators will need to tailor the
Date         Property                             Location                          Seller                                 Buyer                                       Price        to open these projects on time.                     targeted at the right audiences.               experiences that they offer to other
                                                                                                                                                                       (US$)        Nonetheless, there is considerable                  Travel to and within Africa has historically   emerging audiences. Africa’s growing
Q2 2017      Tsogo Sun Portfolio                  South Africa (29 locations)       Tsogo Sun Holdings                     Hospitality Property Fund                   276m*                                                                                                           economic ties with China, for example,
                                                                                                                                                                                    growth potential within the African                 been hindered by poor air connections,
Q4 2016      Mövenpick Ambassador Hotel           Accra, Ghana                      Kingdom Holding Company                Quantum Global                                  100m     hotel sector, particularly outside of               but these are gradually improving and          are creating demand for hotel styles
             Beachcomber Portfolio (44.4%                                                                                  Mara Delta (now Grit Real                                the relatively well-supplied markets of             low-cost African airlines are emerging.        that specifically appeal to Chinese
Q4 2016                                           Mauritius (3 locations)           New Mauritius Hotels Limited                                                           53m
             stake)                                                                                                        Estate Income Group)                                     South Africa and North Africa. Even in              Over the long term, a growing number           tourists and business travellers.
                                                                                                                           Mara Delta (now Grit Real                                these markets, hotel supply levels are              of destinations should become more
Q1 2017      Tamassa Resort                       Bel Ombre, Mauritius              Néréide Limited                                                                        40m                                                                                                         Experiential hotels, which aim to
                                                                                                                           Estate Income Group)                                     small compared with North American                  accessible to international and intra-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       immerse visitors into local cultures, are
                                                                                                                                                                                    and European countries, indicating                  African travellers, driving demand for
Q1 2017      Hyatt Regency                        Johannesburg, South Africa        Investec Property                      Bin Otaiba Investment Group                     36m                                                                                                         another potential growth area.
                                                                                                                                                                                    that there is room for growth over the              hotel rooms.
Q1 2016      InterContinental Hotel               Lusaka, Zambia                    Kingdom Hotel Investments              Quantum Global                              35.9m
                                                                                                                                                                                    long term.                                                                                         As demand evolves and Africa’s hotel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Tourism flows within Africa will also
Q2 2017      African Pride 15 On Orange           Cape Town, South Africa           Blend Property Group                   Spear REIT                                      23m
                                                                                                                                                                                    While the long-term potential is                    be boosted by the expansion of the             industry matures, an increasingly
Q1 2017      Umubano Hotel                        Kigali, Rwanda                    Rwandan Government/LAICO               Madhvani Group                                  20m                                                                                                         diverse range of opportunities will
                                                                                                                                                                                    evident, more transient trends such                 continent’s middle classes and reduced
Q4 2016      Inn On The Square                    Cape Town, South Africa           Hospitality Property Fund              ONOMO Hotel Group                               11m      as the recent slowdown in the major                 visa restrictions. As the current branded      arise in the sector.
Source: Real Capital Analytics / Knight Frank Research    *approx. US$199m in shares + US$77m in cash

10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 11
KNIGHT FRANK AFRICA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Peter Welborn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Managing Director, Africa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    +44 20 7861 1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    peter.welborn@knightfrank.com

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Matthew Colbourne
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Associate, International Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    +44 20 7861 1238
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    matthew.colbourne@knightfrank.com

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    KNIGHT FRANK MIDDLE EAST
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ali Manzoor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Associate Partner,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Hospitality and Leisure
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    +971 56 4202 314
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ali.manzoor@me.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Taimur Khan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Senior Analyst, Development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Consultancy & Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    +971 56 4202 312
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    taimur.khan@knightfrank.com

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