Housing Market Quarterly Bulletin - STOCKPORT HOUSING STRATEGY

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Housing Market Quarterly Bulletin - STOCKPORT HOUSING STRATEGY
STOCKPORT HOUSING STRATEGY

                                            Housing Market Quarterly
                                                            Bulletin
                                                                                                 Issue 45 – May 2019
Housing Market Overview
The latest data released by the Land registry showed that house prices in the UK rose in February at the slowest rate
since September 2012 while in London house prices fell. UK house prices grew by only 0.4% in the year to February
2019. Analysts have warned that house price growth would continue to be subdued in 2019 after a decade of weak
wage rises, as well as the risk of a property slump triggered by a possible no-deal Brexit. The latest data from the Land
Registry showed that the annual average house price increase in Stockport was 6.8% over the same period, which is
significantly higher than the UK average. The number of transactions however has slumped in the first quarter of 2019
to 250 per month from over 400 in the previous quarter. A new graph has been added on page 6, specifically to
monitor the sales and prices of homes in the town centre as development gathers pace.

The UK's key inflation rate, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable at 1.9% in April 2019, up slightly from 1.8%
in January 2019 according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The stable inflation rate means that there is no
pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates as it grapples with continued uncertainty over Brexit. This will
be good news for consumers especially as wages are beginning to increase faster than the rate of inflation and
unemployment is at a record low at around 4%.

Consultation on the revised draft of the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework (GMSF) formally ended on 18th March
2019 and the responses are currently being analysed. The next phase of the consultation is scheduled to commence in
autumn 2019. When adopted, the GMSF will set the overall strategic targets for housing across each of the ten GM
districts through until 2037.

743 new homes were built in Stockport in 2018/19 against a target of 550 of which 269 were affordable housing.
Notable affordable schemes included: Carrington Fields and Charles Street in Manor Ward, St Thomas’ in Brinnington
& Central, Blackstone Fields in Offerton Ward, Bredbury Curve in Bredbury, Mill Lane in Woodley and Lea Road in
Heaton Moor. Homes England also confirmed the first new schemes in Stockport to include social rent since circa
2012. These are at Stockholm Road and Booth Street (total 59 social rented units: Edgeley & Cheadle Heath Ward).
Stockport Homes Group (SHG) and partner Registered Providers (RPs) are on site or working up to start on site for a
further 528 units for completion over the next 2/3 years.

Phase 1 of Brinnington regeneration project (Blackberry Vale) is now complete and fully occupied with 98 houses
completed for market sale. Phase 2 (Blackberry Point) is now on site with 166 houses being constructed for market
sale of which 80 have been sold already and first completions are due imminently. Covent Garden site (75 Units) in the
Town Centre is also on site and will complete in Q2 2019-20. The Council was successful in being awarded £303,000
HIF Grant from Homes, England for the Hopes Carr Hempshaw Brook scheme (14 units) in the Town Centre.

The Council has been working closely with GMCA and Stockport Homes towards the installation of sprinklers to all 22
high rise residential council buildings in the Borough. Wide ranging consultation with GMFRS, Fire Risk Assessors and
Mechanical and Electrical Consultants have been undertaken. A tendering exercise was also completed to appoint a
preferred contractor with a revised two-year programme developed to reduce the time and provide cost certainty.

As has been reported on these bulletins for the last couple of years, private rent levels have continued to rise and
average rents across all property types are over twice that of Council housing rents for comparable properties. This
bulletin includes charts showing weekly rents monitor over the last few years showing private weekly rents in
comparison to the weekly local Housing Allowance (LHA) by property type. The charts show that rents levels are above
the LHA rate for all property types in the private sector.

The GMCA announced in February 2019 that a bid from members of the Greater Manchester Housing Policy Group
(GMHPG) had been successful for their £8m Housing First contract. Over a three-year period, this will deliver very
intensively supported tenancies to people with complex needs at risk of street homelessness, of the kind identified
through the GM Mayors ‘A Bed Every Night’ (ABEN) initiative.

                                                           1
Housing Market Quarterly Bulletin - STOCKPORT HOUSING STRATEGY
Housing Market Statistics

                                                                                   Sales Volume by Property
                                                                        1600                 Type
                                                                        1400
                                                                        1200
                                                                        1000
                                                                         800
                                                                         600
                                                                         400
                                                                         200
                                                                           0
                                                                               Jan 18 - Apr 18 - Jul 18 - Oct 18 - Jan 19 -
                                                                               Mar 18 Jun 18 Sep 18 Dec 18 Mar 19

                                                                                  Flats        Terraced   Semi   Detached

   Source : HM Land Registry April 2019 - NB Sales volume data for the two most recent months are not used by HMLR as
   comparisons due to the lag in the registration of sold properties

                Actual average sale prices by postcode sector for the Quarter 1
                                        Jan to Mar 2019

                      Detached                      Semi                  Terraced                   Flats/maisonette
                 Average         No of       Average       No of       Average       No of           Average      No of
                  Price          Sales        Price        Sales        Price        Sales            Price       Sales
    SK1            £0               0        £183,197        15        £133,397           20        £111,475        6
    SK2         £311,917            6        £241,737        43        £172,121           21        £100,900        5
    SK3         £220,999            7        £197,556        29        £159,703           31        £134,500        5
    SK4         £482,000           11        £399,787        40        £259,590           31        £157,308        13
    SK5         £249,750            4        £159,058        26        £127,520           22        £88,500         3
    SK6         £341,805           30        £245,798        60        £189,039           42        £127,700        12
    SK7         £528,196           43        £268,690        41        £230,153           13        £146,545        10
    SK8         £431,643           28        £304,268        72        £224,957           23        £183,531        14

          Total Sales              129                      326                       203                           68
           Source : HM Land Registry May 2019

           Key:
           SK1: Town Centre/Hillgate/Portwood SK2: Davenport/Heaviley/Great Moor/Stepping Hill/Offerton
           SK3: Shaw Heath/Adswood/Cheadle Heath SK4: Heaton Moor/Heaton Mersey
           SK5: Heaton Chapel/Reddish/Brinnington SK6: Bredbury/Woodley/Romiley/Marple
           SK7 : Bramhall/Woodford/Hazel Grove SK8: Gatley/Heald Green/Cheadle Hulme

                                                               2
Housing Market Quarterly Bulletin - STOCKPORT HOUSING STRATEGY
Source: HM Land Registry Apr 2019

              Average House Prices (all types) by local
                              area
                                       £287,252

                                                                     £242,964
                                                       £223,019                    £229,488

         £175,433
                       £147,482

        Manchester     Tameside        Trafford       Cheshire East England & Wales STOCKPORT
Source: HM Land Registry Apr 2019

                                                  3
Housing Market Quarterly Bulletin - STOCKPORT HOUSING STRATEGY
Mortgage Repossession Statistics
                                       60
     increase/decrease in the number
       of Repossession orders made.
                                       40
           Quarterly Percentage

                                       20

                                        0
                                             Stockport   Manchester       Tameside   NW Region   England and
                                       -20                                                          Wales

                                       -40

                                       -60

                                         Number of Repossession Orders made in Stockport

        12

        10

            8

            6

            4

            2

            0
                           2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1

Source: HM Ministry of Justice – Quarter 1 (2019)

 Rented Housing Market
 Average rent levels as at Apr 2019

                                                         Registered            Stockport Homes      Private Sector
                                                         Providers                 (ALMO)             (Apr 2019)
       Flats 1/2 beds                                      81.70                    69.12               145.45
    Terraced Houses                                        93.60                     83.09              163.53
     Semi-Detached                                         111.60                    95.65              192.57
                    Detached                                n/a                       n/a               279.45
    Source: Stockport Housing Partnership/Stockport Homes Ltd / Private Lettings
    Agencies/Rightmove Website

                                                                      4
Source: Rightmove website

WEEKLY PRIVATE RENT MONITOR (Average Rents)

                                  5
Town Centre
                Town Centre - Average Price and Sales Volume
  £155,000                                                                                          70
  £150,000                                                                                          60
  £145,000
                                                                                                    50
  £140,000
  £135,000                                                                                          40
  £130,000                                                                                          30
  £125,000
                                                                                                    20
  £120,000
  £115,000                                                                                          10

  £110,000                                                                                          0
              Q1 2018         Q2 2018            Q3 2018           Q4 2018         Q1 2019

                                 Average Price             Sales Volume

Homelessness Statistics

                                                                             Quarterly Change
                                                                             (Oct 18 – Dec 18)
                                           Jan 19 – Mar 19                Number              %
 Homelessness Presentations
                                                     505                     70              16.1
 Homelessness Presentations owed full
 duty                                                124                     23              22.8
Source: Stockport Homes Apr 2019

                                                 6
Empty properties in Stockport as at
  Key Economic Indicators as at 31st                      31st March 2019
  March 2019
  Current Bank of England Base Rate:
  0.75 %                                         All empty properties:
                                                 3,422 (3.2% of private housing stock)
  Current Inflation Rate (CPI):
  1.9% (RPI: 2.4%)

  Government Target Inflation Rate (CPI):        Empty for more than 12 months:
  2.00 %                                         1, 165 (1.06% of private housing
                                                 stock)
  3 Month LIBOR as at 18thJanuary 2019:
  0.92%

  (Source: www.thisismoney.co.uk)                Source: Stockport Council

Contact Us :

Tel: 0161 474 4390

E-mail : housing.strategy@stockport.gov.uk

Housing Strategy Team
Place Directorate - Strategic Housing
Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council
Stopford House
Piccadilly
Stockport
SK1 3XE

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