Indonesia Country Diagnostic Study Jakarta, Indonesia 10 August 2009

 
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Indonesia Country Diagnostic Study Jakarta, Indonesia 10 August 2009
Indonesia Country Diagnostic Study

                            Jakarta, Indonesia
                             10 August 2009
The views expressed in this paper /presentation are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views
or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), International Labour Organization (ILO), and Islamic
Development Bank (IDB) or their Board of Governors, or the Governments they represent. They do not guarantee
the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accept no responsibility for any consequence of their use.
Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB, ILO and IDB official terms.
Indonesia Country Diagnostic Study Jakarta, Indonesia 10 August 2009
I. Background
Indonesia Country Diagnostic Study Jakarta, Indonesia 10 August 2009
Country Diagnostic Studies

ƒ RETA 6397 Includes 4 country studies; Philippine and
  Nepal Country Diagnostic Studies have been completed;
  Indonesia and PNG studies are planned for 2009-10
ƒ Indonesia country study will be jointly undertaken with
  Government of Indonesia, IDB and ILO.
ƒ The Indonesia study will involve:
   ƒ Reviewing development performance and patterns,
   ƒ Formulating a set of hypotheses and testing of binding
     constraints, and
   ƒ Formulating policies to address the binding constraints.
Indonesia Country Diagnostic Study Jakarta, Indonesia 10 August 2009
II.   Stage I Methodology
      - Identification of Critical Constraints
Indonesia Country Diagnostic Study Jakarta, Indonesia 10 August 2009
Concept of Inclusive Growth

ƒ Inclusive growth strategy needs two policy
  pillars:
   ¾ High and sustainable growth to create economic
     opportunities;
   ¾ Social inclusion to ensure equal access to the opportunities
     by all.
ƒ Promoting social inclusion requires:
   ¾ Investing in education, health, infrastructure, and other
     social services to expand human capacities;
   ¾ Promoting good policy and sound institutions to advance
     economic and social justice and level playing fields;
   ¾ Developing social safety nets to prevent extreme poverty.
Concept of Inclusive Growth
                                          Inclusive growth

    High economic growth to create jobs                 Equal access to opportunities to
             and opportunities                              ensure social inclusion

•   Adequate human capital;
                                                  •   Adequate investment in education, health,
•   Sound infrastructure;                             infrastructure, and basic social services to expand
•   Macro/financial stability;                        human capacities;
•   Good governance and strong institutions       •   Effective social safety nets to prevent extreme
•   Absence of market failures;                       poverty;
•   Good access to international finance;         •   Good governance and strong institutions to ensure
•   Efficient financial intermediation;               social justice and even playing fields.
•   Adequate domestic savings; and so on.

                                                      B. Diagnostic Framework for
     A. Growth Diagnostic Framework                          Inclusiveness
A. Growth Diagnostics
• What does growth diagnostics do?
   ¾ Identify the most binding constraints and figure out policy
     priorities.
• How to identify the most binding constraints?
   ¾ Identify proximate determinants of growth.
   ¾ Figure out which of those post the greatest impediments
     to higher growth.
   ¾ Identify the specific distortions behind the impediments.
• Using the following problem tree as a roadmap.
Low levels of private investment and entrepreneurship

      Low return to economic activity                                High cost of finance

                                                              bad
  Low social returns     Low appropriability                  international         bad local finance
                                                              finance

                               government          market
                                 failures          failures
  poor            bad
geography    infrastructure

                                                  information       coordination
                                                 externalities:     externalities
      low human
                                               “self-discovery”
        capital
                                                                                                poor
                micro risks:         macro risks:                               low            inter-
                 property              financial,                             domestic        mediation
                  rights,             monetary,                                saving
                corruption,              fiscal
                   taxes              instability
Growth Diagnostics

• Searching for price signals: Return to education, interest rates,
  cost of transport:
       ¾If low education is a serious problem, returns to
        skill/education should be high and unemployed skilled
        people should be low.
       ¾If investment is constrained by savings, interest rates
        should be high and growth respond to changes in
        available savings (e.g., inflow of foreign capital).
       ¾If poor transport links is a constraint, there should be
        bottlenecks and high private cost of transport.
Growth Diagnostics
• Searching for non-price signals:
   ¾ When a constraint binds, it results in activities
     designed to get around it:
      ™High tax → high informality.
      ™Poor legal institutions → high demand for
       informal mechanisms of conflict resolution and
       contract enforcement.
      ™Poor financial intermediation → internalization of
       finance through business groups, etc.
Growth Diagnostics

• Searching for historical growth episodes.
• Finding out what the business community says.
• Bench-marking with other countries and other periods.
• For fast-growing economies, focusing on constraints
  to sustaining growth and lagging regions.
Growth Diagnostics - Key Questions for
           the Indonesia Study
ƒ Is there sufficient level of private investment
  in the country?
ƒ If not;
  ƒ Is the cost of finance high? If so; why?
  ƒ Are the returns to investment low? If so; why?
ƒ Are regional disparities in growth high?
ƒ If yes;
  ƒ Are the returns to investment lower in some
    regions lower than other regions? If so; why?
Gross Capital Formation (% of GDP)

                        0
                            5
                                10
                                     15
                                          20
                                               25
                                                    30
                                                         35
                                                              40
                                                                   45
                                                                        50

Source: WDI
              19
                   85
              19
                   86
              19
                   87
              19
                   88
              19
                   89
              19
                   90
              19
                   91
                                                                             Indonesia

              19
                   92
              19
                   93
              19
                   94
              19
                   95
                                                                             Philippines

              19
                   96
              19
                   97
              19
                   98
                                                                             Thailand

              19
                   99
              20
                   00
              20
                   01
                                                                             Malaysia

              20
                   02
              20
                   03
              20
                   04
                                                                             Vietnam

              20
                   05
                                                                                           Comparison of Investment Rates

              20
                   06
              20
                   07
Comparison of Spread Between
                Lending and Deposit Rates
                  Indonesia      Malaysia    Philippines        Thailand     Viet Nam

    9

    8

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    0
    Jun-00    Jun-01    Jun-02    Jun-03    Jun-04     Jun-05       Jun-06   Jun-07     Jun-08

Source: IFS
Social Returns to Investment ( in %)

                             Indonesia         Malaysia       Philippine        Thailand        India
        40
        35
        30
        25
        20
        15
        10
          5
          0
                          1990-97                        1998-2002                          2001-07

Social Returns have been estimated as the ratio of GDP Growth Rate and Gross Capital Formation as %age of GDP
Low levels of private investment and entrepreneurship

      Low return to economic activity                                High cost of finance

                                                              bad
  Low social returns     Low appropriability                  international         bad local finance
                                                              finance

                               government          market
                                 failures          failures
  poor            bad
geography    infrastructure

                                                  information       coordination
                                                 externalities:     externalities
      low human
                                               “self-discovery”
        capital
                                                                                                poor
                micro risks:         macro risks:                               low            inter-
                 property              financial,                             domestic        mediation
                  rights,             monetary,                                saving
                corruption,              fiscal
                   taxes              instability
Large Disparities in Districts’ Share in GDP, 2003

McCulloch and Sjahrir, 2008
Large Disparities in Per Capita GRDP in 2003

McCulloch and Sjahrir, 2008
B. Diagnostic Framework for
                        Poverty and Inequality
                                          S lo w R a te o f P o v e rty R e d u c tio n
                                                  a n d H ig h Ine q u a lity

       L ac k o f pro d u c tive
                                                   U n e qu a l a c c e ss to                            In a d e q u a te s o c ia l
 e m p lo ym e nt o p p o rtu n itie s
d u e to lo w e c on o m ic g ro w th                 o p p o rtu n itie s                                    s a fety n e ts

                                               W eak h um an cap abilities                       U n eve n playin g fie ld
Lo w le vels o f priva te inv estm e nt   • u ne qual ac ce ss to edu ca tion               • un equ al a cc es s to
an d entrepren eursh ip (follo w th e     • u ne qual ac ce ss to hea lth
                                                                                            infras truc tu re and p rod uc tive
G row th D ia gno stic F ram e w ork)     • u ne qual ac ce ss to othe r so cial
                                                                                            a sse ts (c re dit, land )
                                          se rvic es

E xclus ion
                                                                                    In ad equ ate pub lic s ervice d eliv ery
• G e ogr aph ical exc lusion
                                                                  M arke t          • L im ited re sou rc es
• E c ono m ic exc lusion
                                                                  failu re s        • P oor targeting
• S o cial e xc lu sion
                                                                                    • P oor go vernan ce
Inclusiveness Diagnostic - Indonesia
ƒ What are the trends in poverty and income
  inequality levels?
ƒ If Poverty or Inequality are high;
  ƒ Are there adequate opportunities for employment?
  ƒ Are there inadequacies in access to social
    services and facilities? If so; why?
  ƒ Are there inadequacies in access to infrastructure
    and productive assets? If so; why?
  ƒ Are there inadequacies in access to social
    protection and safety nets? If so; why?
Poverty Levels are on the decline.

           Indonesia                Urban                  Rural
30         26   26
           24             25
                23
25         22        22                               22
                               21                21          20
      20        19                   20     20
                     19   18                                       19
      18                       18    17               18
20                                          17   17          17
                     15                                            15
                               14
      14                             14               13
15                                          12   12          13
                                                                   12
                          10
10

5

0
     1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Income/Expenditure Gini Coeffient, a
measure of inequality, has been rising.

0.45

0.40

0.35                                      0.36          0.36
       0.36
                     0.33                        0.33
0.30          0.31
                            0.32   0.32

0.25
       1996 1999 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Disparities in Poverty Incidence between
                 regions.
Regions with low incidence of Poverty Incidence
   still house large size of poor populations.
Economy has been growing but
Unemployment Levels have been rising.
       Real GDP (trillion Rp)              Employment rate (%)                Poverty Incidence (%)
       95      95       94    94
100                                 92       91      90      90              90      91      92     2,300
                                                                     89
90                                                                                                  2,100
                                                            Rice price increases            2,082
80                                                                                                  1,900
                                                                                    1,963
70                                                                          1,847
                                                                    1,751
                                                                                                    1,700
60                                                          1,657
                 Asia                               1,577                                           1,500
50                                          1,505
      1,445
                             1,390 1,440                                                            1,300
40            1,314 1,325
                                                                                                    1,100
30
20                                                                                                  900
               24       23
10     18                     19    18       18      17              17      18                     700
                                                             17                      17      15
-                                                                                                   500
      1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Access to Social Services and Facilities is
           Low and Unequal.
    Sumatra               Java & Bali                       Kalimantan                Sulaw esi
        99
100        9494
                83
     78                                                                               75 79
 80                                                                   70                       67
                                                                 60         64
 60                                                  51                    48
                          42                           46                                           42
                                             38 40          40                   39           39
 40                  28        3032
                                      24
 20

  0
         Primary        Junior              Puskesmas or              Latrine          Access to
                      Secondary               supported                               w ater in the
                                             puskesmas                                   village

                                           % of villages w ith
Access to Infrastructure and
 Productive Assets is Low and Unequal.

      Sumatra                 Java & Bali                 Kalimantan                 Sulawesi                   Maluku, Papua, & NT
           100
100   94         93 95
 90
 80                                   73                         72                         72
                         65      66        67
 70                                             63
                                                                                                      56
 60                                                                        50
                                                                                54     52
 50                                                                                              43
                                                                                                           40
                                                     37
 40
                                                            29
 30
 20                                                                   16
                                                                                                                         11
 10                                                                                                                  4        4   5   3
  0
      Electricity-users         Electricity-users            Irrigated land           Asphalt/concrete                   Banks
                                                                                           road
        (% villages)             (% of families)           (% of paddy land)             (% villages)                (% of villages)
Access to Infrastructure and
           Productive Assets is Low and Unequal.
                                                             Sumatra                            Java & Bali
40                                                           Kalimantan                         Sulawesi
                                                             Maluku, Papua, & NT

35                             34
                                         31 31        40,000
                                    29           29                          34,894
30              27                                    35,000
                          25
      24             23
25                                                    30,000
           20
20                                                    25,000              22,438                    22,591

                                                      20,000
15                                                                                 15,424
                                                      15,000
                                                                    11,496
10
                                                      10,000                                           7,111
                                                                                                          6,803
5                                                                 5,525                        5,077
                                                       5,000                                2,039
0                                                        -
        Sub-district           District capital                      Sub-district            District capital

     Ave. distance travelled per hour (km/hr)                        Ave. cost per km traveled (Rp/km)
Social Protection Expenditures in 2005
(% of GDP) were one of the lowest in the region.

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    0
        Indonesia   Malaysia   Philippines   Viet Nam   Asia
III. Way Forward
Proposed Time Line
ƒ   Stage I - Overarching Diagnosis of Constraints
     ƒ Analytical Work/Diagnosis – July-September 2009
     ƒ Consultation Workshop on Initial Findings on Constraints – Mid
        September 2009
     ƒ Circulation of Draft Report on Critical Constraints – Mid October 2009
ƒ   Stage II - In-depth Sectoral and Thematic Diagnosis
     ƒ Analytical Work/Diagnosis – August-November 2009
     ƒ Consultation Workshop on Findings of In-depth Studies and Policy
        Options - early December 2009
ƒ   Circulation of Draft Country Study Report to Stakeholders – January 2010
ƒ   Finalization of Country Study Report – February 2010
ƒ   Launch of Country Study Report - March/April 2010
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