Koreans call in - KangaNews

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Koreans call in - KangaNews
FEATURE

                                   Koreans
                                    call in
      Since 2012, Korean-origin issuance has quietly become one of the mainstays of
      the sub-triple-A Kangaroo market – and some of the same borrowers have also
      started to make their presence felt in New Zealand. There is a lingering sense of
       untapped potential in these issuers, some of which say they increasingly view
                    the Australian dollar as a strategic funding currency.
                                                             B Y   H E L E N     C R A I G

     T
                      he volatile diplomatic situation on the Korean           in 2015. As it did in Australia, KDB opened the market and was
                      peninsula is a clear near-term headwind for              closely followed by Export-Import Bank of Korea (Kexim). By
                      issuance from South Korea in Australasian                March 2017, however, Kexim was the Kauri market’s only repeat
                      markets. But issuers, intermediaries and investors       issuer from Korea and the two policy banks remained the only
                      say the country has gradually become something           Korean callers.
     of a low-profile fixture in Australia. In New Zealand, attracting             In the wake of a first-quarter 2017 Korean-origin Kangaroo
     more domestic investors to future deals is a clear goal.                  and Kauri deal flurry, market participants say both can continue
          Korean names were actually the first to issue deals in a format      to deepen and broaden. In the past, the tendency of Korean
     recognisably the same as contemporary Kangaroos: Korea                    Kangaroo deals to appear in clusters has led to some perceptions
     Development Bank (KDB), Korea Exchange Bank and Korea                     of opportunism on the part of borrowers – perceptions that the
     Long-Term Credit Bank all issued in 1996, nearly two years                most active names are keen to disavow.
     before the first triple-A-rated supranational tested the waters for
     Australian domestic issuance. However, barring false starts in            G RE E N L I G H T
     2003 and 2007 it was not until 2012 that regular Kangaroo flow            Since 2012, Korean Kangaroo issuance has settled into a
     from Korea established itself.                                            predictable pattern. Flow tends to coalesce around two periods
          According to KangaNews data, 11 Korean borrowers have                each year, one per half, with a short flurry of deals at each point.
     issued in the Australian market, printing A$9.2 billion (US$7             There have been between three and seven Korean Kangaroos in
     billion) of Kangaroo supply. All but A$1 billion of this issuance         each year since 2012, including three in 2017 by the end of Q1.
     has come to market since Industrial Bank of Korea reopened the                In line with the broad constructive tone to credit markets,
     door in January 2012.                                                     Korean-origin issuers printed A$1.3 billion of Kangaroo deals
          Korea has been the third-largest individual country source of        between 2 February and 24 March. In New Zealand, Kexim
     Kangaroo flow outside the triple-A sector since then, and Korean          printed NZ$400 million (US$280.6 million) of five-year notes on
     volume dwarfs that of several whole regions.                              in the year’s only Korean Kauri to date (see table on p74).
          As a natural progression to their Kangaroo endeavours,                   Like other Kangaroo and Kauri borrowers, Korean-issuer
     Korean-origin issuers first entered the New Zealand dollar market         funding approaches tend to combine strategic and opportunistic

     “The pickup in spread on Korean-origin deals versus ‘traditional’ global SSA
     issuers is not a difficult argument to make. And there are few other double-A
     rated, high-quality, 100 per cent government-owned Asian names.”
     MICHAEL KANG WESTPAC INSTITUTIONAL BANK

7 2 | K A N G A N E W S   A P R / M A Y   2 0 1 7
DOMESTIC INVESTOR ENGAGEMENT
  Domestic real-money buyers of Korean-origin Kangaroo deals say they continue to welcome
  these names in general, though the regional political situation is giving pause for thought. Fund
  managers in New Zealand are less engaged to date.
  Ray Lee, Kapstream Capital          We welcome further Korean-          Korean issuance. Lee reveals       a curve and there is general
  (Kapstream)’s Sydney-based          origin issuance,” Kirkham says.     that Kapstream often finds         interest in their primary deals”.
  head of credit, reveals that                                            Korean Kangaroos appealing
  the firm has adopted a more         However, Iain Cox, head of          compared with the same             Lee says Korean issuers are
  cautious outlook on Korea of        Australasian fixed income           issuers’ offshore curves, with     notable for the regularity
  late as the threat of conflict      and cash at ANZ Wealth in           the premia typically paid by       with which they issue in
  with North Korea has raised         Auckland, says his firm has not     Koreans for perceived limited      Australia relative to borrowers
  its head once again. “We            been involved in Korean-origin      liquidity adding to the appeal.    from other jurisdictions. He
  have been active buyers of          Kauri supply to date – based                                           tells KangaNews: “Korean
  Korean Kangaroos in the             primarily on a credit view.         However, in New Zealand, Cox       issuers are the most frequent
  past but with the current                                               sees a risk-return imbalance.      Kangaroo issuers out of Asia,
  geopolitical backdrop we are        He explains: “Using Korea           He tells KangaNews triple-A        particularly in the corporate
  on hold when it comes to            Development Bank [KDB]              rated supranational, sovereign     space. If these issuers
  adding exposure,” he reveals.       as an example, it is 100 per        and agency Kauri bonds often       only access the market
                                      cent owned by the Korean            carry a pickup of 100 basis        opportunistically it doesn’t
  Anthony Kirkham, head of            government but even                 points or more over local          matter: ultimately our decision
  investment management and           though the government is            sovereign debt – despite being     to participate comes down
  Australia and New Zealand           responsible for KDB’s solvency      higher-rated. The triple-A         to relative value – assuming
  operations at Western Asset         it doesn’t provide any form         paper is thus a sufficient proxy   the geopolitical situation
  Management (Western Asset)          of guarantee. We tend to look       for New Zealand government         remains satisfactory.”
  in Melbourne, tells KangaNews       for explicit or strong implicit     bonds and leaves no need to
  that the early 2017 flurry of       guarantees, and while we            go down to the double-A level      New Zealand-based deal
  Korean Kangaroo issuance            are able to get comfortable         of Korean agency issuance.         arrangers say they are
  came on the back of pricing         with how specific guarantee                                            confident domestic investors
  conditions that worked for          and resolution structures           Success clearly breeds             will over time begin to
  investors as well as issuers.       work for issuers in different       success when it comes to           support Korean-origin deals,
  Western Asset remains               jurisdictions – Germany, for        establishing a consistent          especially as further supply
  constructive on Korean              instance – in our view the          market presence, and               comes to market. But Cox
  names in general terms.             Korean guarantee structure          Australian investors say they      says the barrier to investing is
                                      is just not robust enough.”         have grown comfortable with        greater than pure volume or
  “We look across the breadth                                             Korean issuers’ Kangaroo           momentum. “We always look
  of Korean Kangaroo issuance         Risk-return dynamics                strategies. In fact, Kirkham       at quality, liquidity, diversity
  regardless of sector and            A key point of difference           says Western Asset is largely      and yield – in this order,” he
  we are open to the broad            between Australian and              indifferent to opportunistic or    says. “Credit is the first hurdle
  categories of Korean credit,        New Zealand investors may           strategic execution strategies –   and if we can’t get past this
  from high grade to corporate.       be perception of value in           “provided issuers are creating     the rest don’t matter.”

elements. Fundamentally, however, deal execution largely                      The same challenges exist in New Zealand. The starting
depends on issuers being able to achieve funding at levels close          position for pricing in New Zealand dollars is in line with US
to US dollar cost. Tom Irving, managing director and head of              and Australian dollars. Mike Faville, head of debt capital markets
Asia syndicate at TD Securities in Singapore, comments: “The              at BNZ in Auckland, says: “If it’s wider than these levels issuers
Kangaroo market has always been demand-driven. If demand is               won’t come and if it’s tighter investors won’t buy the deals.”
not there at a price an issuer is prepared to pay, the transaction will       As with other Kangaroo issuers, investor diversity is also high
not happen.”                                                              on the wish-list for Korean names. Australian investors seem to

“Whether the Kauri market can expand to non-repo-eligible
names is difficult to say with any real conviction. I remain
positive a market exists but getting the deals up to launch is a bit
more challenging.”
MIKE FAVILLE BNZ

                                                                                                                                                 7 3
FEATURE

                                                                                be largely comfortable with Korean names from a credit and a
       ISSUER INSIGHTS:                                                         relative-value standpoint, although the Asian bid is still significant
       KDB’s near-term needs                                                    in these deals. Domestic engagement is a step further back in
                                                                                New Zealand (see box on p73).
       reduce Australasian
       appetite                                                                 ST RAT EGY C H A N G E
                                                                                Korean issuers themselves say Australasian currencies have
       Korea Development Bank (KDB) has been                                    become a greater focus of their funding plans. These borrowers
       absent from the Kangaroo and Kauri markets                               tend to have US dollars as their core funding option – some are
       in 2017. Limited funding need is keeping                                 natural US dollar funders and do not swap to Korean won at all
       the issuer away from noncore options                                     – and this is likely to remain the case. But where in the past their
                                                                                most favoured additional currencies were Swiss francs, euros and
       although it insists Australasian currencies
                                                                                yen, over time market access and relative economics have caused
       continue to play an important role.
                                                                                some larger issuers to reassess their reliance on these currencies
                                                                                in favour of Australian, and in some instances New Zealand,
       KOREA DEVELOPMENT BANK KANGAROO AND KAURI                                dollars.
       ISSUANCE HISTORY
                                                                                    One example is Kexim, the most active Korean issuer in global
        PRICING      VOLUME       MARKET        MATURITY      SPREAD (BP/
        DATE         ($M)                       DATE          SWAP, BBSW        markets and in Australasia (see table on p76). It says Australian
                                                              OR BKBM)
                                                                                dollars has now become its largest currency exposure outside US
        1 Aug 96     150          Kangaroo      15 Jul 99     ND
        19 Nov 03    150          Kangaroo      24 Nov 06     53
                                                                                dollars. Its use of New Zealand dollars is also expanding.
        30 Nov 12    400          Kangaroo      7 Dec 15      115
                                                                                    Hee-Sung Yoon, treasurer at Kexim in Seoul, tells KangaNews
        16 May 14    200          Kangaroo      22 Nov 19     110               Australian dollars accounted for 7.8 per cent and New Zealand
        16 May 14    200          Kangaroo      22 Nov 19     110               dollars 2.2 per cent of the issuer’s total outstanding long-term
        20 Nov 15    300          Kangaroo      27 Nov 18     103               foreign-currency issuance as of February 2017. Five years earlier
        7 Apr 16     200          Kauri         18 Apr 19     105               the Australasian currencies accounted for just 1.3 per cent and 0.5
       SOURCE: KANGANEWS 17 APRIL 2017
                                                                                per cent respectively.
                                                                                    The fact that the Australian market has become a favourite
       KDB was the Kangaroo                   Regarding Kauris in particular,   among Korean issuers is no surprise to intermediaries. Michael
       market’s first-ever issuer,            the same spokesperson
       when it printed a A$150                says: “We were the first          Kang, Hong Kong-based director, Asia DCM and syndicate at
       million (US$113.8 million),            Korean issuer in the Kauri        Westpac Institutional Bank (Westpac), adds that Korean issuers
       three-year deal in 1996.               market and we are constantly      are becoming increasingly inquisitive about the Kauri market.
       Twenty years later it also             monitoring this market for            “Issuing in New Zealand dollars is a natural progression for
       became the Kauri market’s              issuance opportunities.
       inaugural Korean issuer,               Since KDB’s natural needs
                                                                                high-grade borrowers that have established a benchmark curve
       placing NZ$200 million                 for New Zealand dollars are       in Australia,” he says. “Issuers are initially fascinated that such
       (US$140.3 million) of                  rare we have to swap the          a market exists. We see growing investor interest in the Kauri
       three-year notes in April              proceeds into US dollars. As      market’s dynamics, especially following breakthrough transactions
       2016. KDB has had a steady             a result, the after-swap level
                                                                                from Kexim and KDB.”
       stream of Kangaroo and                 has to be in line with our US
       Kauri issuance in the interim          dollar funding target level.”
       (see table in this box).
                                              Even so, the KDB                  KOREAN-ORIGIN KANGAROO AND KAURI DEALS IN 2017
       Despite its historic                   spokesperson says Australian      PRICING     ISSUER        MARKET     VOLUME   MATURITY     SPREAD (BP/
       engagement with Australian             and New Zealand dollars           DATE                                 ($M)     DATE         SWAP OR
                                                                                                                                           BBSW)
       and New Zealand dollar                 continue to play into the
                                                                                7 Feb 17    Export-       Kangaroo   400      14 Feb 22    117
       issuance and the fact that it          global funding mix.                           Import Bank
       has been monitoring both                                                             of Korea
       markets in 2017, KDB does              He comments: “We are              7 Feb 17    Export-       Kangaroo   100      7 Sep 27     125
       not have immediate funding             always keen to expand and                     Import Bank
       plans beyond US dollars.               diversify our sources of                      of Korea
                                              funding. Australian and New       23 Feb      Export-       Kauri      400      9 Mar 22     113
       A KDB spokesperson                     Zealand dollars are both very     17          Import Bank
       explains: “Considering our             important markets to us and,                  of Korea
       US dollar bond curve, the              as we plan to further expand      10 Mar      Shinhan       Kangaroo   400      17 Mar 21    110
       five-year space in Australian          our overseas businesses,          17          Bank
       dollars seems attractive.              we believe our funding            24 Mar      Hyundai       Kangaroo   400      30 Mar 22    130
       However, we do not have                need in both markets will         17          Capital
       immediate funding plans.”              increase going forward.”                      Services
                                                                                SOURCE: KANGANEWS 17 APRIL 2017

7 4 | K A N G A N E W S   A P R / M A Y   2 0 1 7
AU STRALIAN EVO LU T I O N
The reason for the Australian dollar’s rise in Korean borrowers’           ISSUER INSIGHTS:
strategic thinking is the evolution of demand for these names.
Intermediaries say the initial – largely offshore – investor base is
                                                                           Hyundai the lone
gradually being supplemented by local demand as investors edge
further out the credit curve in the hunt for yield. Specifically, a
                                                                           Korean corporate
                                                                           Although it is Korea’s only true-corporate
growing number of Australian investors are looking on double-A
                                                                           Kangaroo issuer, Hyundai Capital Services
rated Korean agency borrowers as a legitimate yield enhancer to
                                                                           (Hyundai) is a repeat visitor to Australia.
the core supranational, sovereign and agency (SSA) sector.
     In 2017’s Korean Kangaroos, intermediaries say the typical
                                                                           HYUNDAI CAPITAL SERVICES KANGAROO
buyer is most likely to be a conservative domestic real-money              ISSUANCE HISTORY
account that typically focuses on high-quality, developed-market            PRICING DATE     VOLUME          MATURITY         SPREAD (BP/
credit.                                                                                      (A$M)           DATE             SWAP, BBSW)

     Kang explains: “The pickup in spread on Korean-origin deals            9 May 13         250             16 May 17        150
                                                                            27 May 16        350             3 Jun 21         160
versus ‘traditional’ global SSA issuers is not a difficult argument to
                                                                            24 Mar 17        400             30 Mar 22        130
make. And there are few other double-A rated, high-quality, 100            SOURCE: KANGANEWS 17 APRIL 2017
per cent government-owned Asian names.”
     Paul White, co-head of capital markets at ANZ in Sydney,              Hyundai issued its third           the state-sponsored-agency
suggests the overriding demand driver is domestic investors’ quest         Kangaroo in March this year        sector. The bulk of Korean-
                                                                           (see table in this box). In the    origin Kangaroo issuance has
for liquid instruments. “There is strong demand for liquidity,”            wake of the transaction, a         come from policy banks and
he tells KangaNews. “Kexim is a good example of an issuer that             Seoul-based Hyundai official       government-owned utilities.
meets domestic investors’ needs. It issues reasonably frequently           reveals that the firm’s A$400
and in quite large volume. This of itself attracts domestic and            million (US$303.4 million)         Hyundai raises around 70
                                                                           fixed- and floating-rate issue     per cent of its debt from the
offshore demand.”                                                          priced at slightly inside its      US dollar market but says it
     Some market sources are even confident that Australia has             existing A$350 million June        is open to various options to
capacity to absorb up to A$8 billion of Korean-origin supply.              2021 bond and in line with         maintain a diverse funding
The challenge may in fact be on the supply side. While it does not         its US dollar-denominated          mix. This means a strategic
                                                                           secondary curve. “We were          approach, which applies in
appear to be impeding individual transactions, there may be room
                                                                           able to achieve this pricing       Australia and elsewhere.
for more issuance diversity. “The composition of deal books                with strong support from           “When we enter a new
may be changing as some investors get full on specific Korean              on- and offshore demand,”          market we aim to become
names,” Irving comments. “But this has not had a negative effect           the representative says.           a regular issuer,” the official
on demand because of the broader array of investors looking at                                                adds. “The Kangaroo market
                                                                           This is supported by official      is one of those where we
Korean credit.”                                                            distribution data. Final books     apply this standard.”
     It is also relatively clear that unless something causes              on Hyundai’s five-year deal
individual Korean issuers to turn away from US dollar funding              were more than A$500               Hyundai characterises the
they are unlikely to have a lot of additional headroom to issue            million and 52 per cent of the     Kangaroo market as having
                                                                           fixed-rate tranche was placed      “its own colour and unique
Australian and New Zealand dollars. The opportunity may be
                                                                           with domestic accounts. Of         investor base” but says
to build on the now-established support for Korean names to                the floating-rate note, 77 per     buyers do not struggle with
introduce credits from elsewhere in Asia to Australia.                     cent was sold into Asia.           the nature of the issuer. The
     Kang points out that Chinese issuers provided almost 60 per                                              official adds: “The Australian
cent, or US$130 billion equivalent, of 2016’s offshore issuance            Hyundai remains the only true      investors we have met had
                                                                           corporate issuer to come to        an in-depth understanding
in the Asia ex-Japan region, from less than 5 per cent – or US$2           Australia from Korea and one       of the auto captive finance
billion – in 2009. “The universe of potential Chinese Kangaroo             of just two – the other being      sector and a good knowledge
issuers is diverse, and when one moves others might as well                Shinhan Bank – from outside        of our credit as well.”
follow,” he suggests.

N EW Z EALAND M EAS U R ED                                                   Both Korean Kauri issuers to date have been repo-eligible
Views on Kauri growth are clearly more measured, with demand             in New Zealand. BNZ’s Faville argues that while repo eligibility
yet to be firmly established as a consistent phenomenon. “The            is not a necessary condition for issuer success it helps generate
Kauri market will continue to be well supported by the likes of          cornerstone interest in a deal. “There are other Korean names
Kexim and KDB although whether it can deepen much beyond                 that would qualify for repo eligibility and there’s nothing to stop
this is difficult to say,” Irving argues. “There is certainly scope,     more of these coming to New Zealand,” he insists. “Whether
but it requires a fundamentally strong New Zealand market. The           the Kauri market can expand to non-repo-eligible names is
Kauri market remains harder to break into than the Kangaroo.”            more difficult to say with any real conviction. I remain positive

                                                                                                                                                7 5
FEATURE

        ISSUER INSIGHTS:
        Kexim takes a strategic approach
        Export-Import Bank of Korea (Kexim) is the most active Korean issuer                                      US dollar transactions, Yoon
                                                                                                                  explains that this is not the
        in global markets. It places a particular focus on Australian dollars in its                              only driver.“We went ahead
        funding mix and has a growing awareness of the benefits of accessing                                      with the Kangaroo deal even
        the New Zealand dollar investor base. A strategic approach to both                                        though the expected after-
                                                                                                                  swap level was wider than our
        markets is key.
                                                                                                                  US dollar secondary curve,” he
        Kexim is Australia’s most              in the New Zealand market         currencies are more expensive    says. “Diversification of funding
        prolific Korean-origin Kangaroo        (see table in this box).          than US dollars, favourable      sources in currencies and
        issuer, with close to A$3 billion                                        economics helped bring the       formats is a high priority and
        (US$2.3 billion) issued since          Kexim has issued in both the      issuer to Australia and New      continuous access to stable,
        its inaugural deal in 2012. It         Kangaroo and Kauri markets        Zealand in close succession.     non-US dollar markets such as
        was also the second Korean             in 2017. Hee-Sung Yoon,                                            Kangaroo and Kauri is valuable
        borrower to enter the Kauri            treasurer at Kexim in Seoul,      While US dollar funding levels   for us in many respects.”
        market and is the only to              tells KangaNews that while        are one of the factors Kexim
        have two lines outstanding             public bond issuances in all      considers when issuing non-      The primary driver in tapping
                                                                                                                  into the Kauri market was the
                                                                                                                  ability to access new high-
        THE EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF KOREA KANGAROO AND KAURI ISSUANCE HISTORY                                       quality investors. “We believe
        PRICING DATE        VOLUME ($M)         MARKET               MATURITY DATE         SPREAD (BP/SWAP,       that being a frequent issuer in
                                                                                           BBSW OR BKBM)
                                                                                                                  less deep markets is important.
        17 Jul 12           500                 Kangaroo             27 Jul 15             190
                                                                                                                  We are thus committed to
        9 Apr 14            500                 Kangaroo             17 Apr 19             108
                                                                                                                  regularly issuing in the Kauri as
        14 Nov 14           500                 Kangaroo             21 May 20             115
                                                                                                                  well as the Kangaroo market.”
        12 Aug 15           650                 Kangaroo             19 Feb 21             120
        14 Jul 16           350                 Kauri                28 Jul 21             125
                                                                                                                  Yoon adds: “This said, the New
        19 Jul 16           50                  Kauri                28 Jul 21             125                    Zealand dollar basis swap
        30 Nov 16           200                 Kangaroo             7 Jun 27              130                    happens to have assisted
        8 Dec 16            50                  Kangaroo             7 Jun 27              127                    the competitiveness of
        7 Feb 17            400                 Kangaroo             14 Feb 22             117                    the market to be on par or
        7 Feb 17            100                 Kangaroo             7 Sep 27              125                    slightly more cost-effective
        23 Feb 17           400                 Kauri                9 Mar 22              113                    than the Australian dollar
        SOURCE: KANGANEWS 17 APRIL 2017                                                                           market for the time being.”

     a market exists but getting the deals up to launch is a bit more            will see deals taking place and issuers demonstrating that they
     challenging.”                                                               are committed to the market. Local fund managers were never
         The imminent challenge is demand. A very small proportion               expected to be a key component of the first transactions.
     of Kauri deals has been allocated to domestic fund managers                      The development set in the Australian market should help.
     – around 10 per cent of the three Korean-origin Kauri deals to              Josh Sife, director, frequent coverage and syndicate, Asia at
     date. Getting New Zealand fund managers involved in Kauri                   National Australia Bank in Hong Kong, comments: “We have
     deals is where the most work needs to be done.                              now had several years of consistent Korean Kangaroo supply
         Faville says many local fund managers’ circumspect                      with bonds notching up good secondary-market performance.
     approach to investing in global credit, even if they make an                Realistically, issuers and syndicates get comfort around execution
     exception for SSAs, means the challenges are significant but not            certainty from the combination of domestic and Asian support
     insurmountable. He expects that over time – and much like the               for these names – and it is this combination that has facilitated
     development of the Korean Kangaroo market – fund managers                   such robust outcomes.” •

                                “The composition of deal books may be changing as some
                                investors get full on specific Korean names. But this has not had
                                a negative knock-on effect on demand because of the broader
                                array of investors looking at Korean credit.”
                                TOM IRVING TD SECURITIES

7 6 | K A N G A N E W S   A P R / M A Y   2 0 1 7
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