Looking Forward: 2019 Salmon Fisheries - Preliminary Pre-season Planning Considerations Southern BC Post-season Review Meetings December 6, 2018 ...
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Looking Forward: 2019 Salmon Fisheries
Preliminary Pre-season Planning Considerations
Southern BC Post-season Review Meetings
December 6, 2018
Outline
A. IFMP Planning Considerations:
1. COSEWIC and SARA listing timelines
2. Chinook management
3. Southern Resident Killer Whales
4. Interior Fraser Steelhead
5. Fraser River Sockeye
6. Interior Fraser Coho
7. Five Nations Fishery Management Plan
8. Pacific Salmon Treaty Implementation
9. CSAF demonstration fisheries
B. 2019 Salmon Outlook
C. IFMP process timelines
2
A. IFMP Planning Considerations • Key planning considerations reflect areas where Department expects potential changes to management approaches and decision guidelines for 2019 fishing season • A letter will be sent to First Nations and stakeholders in early Dec. with further details on planning priorities and seeking feedback by Jan. 11, 2019. • Consultations with First Nations and stakeholders will occur as part of process to develop the draft salmon IFMP and includes a 30 day public comment period prior to finalizing the 2019/20 salmon IFMPs. 3
1. SARA Listing Timelines - Salmon
• Five salmon listing processes need to be undertaken.
• New service standard directs listing decision to occur within 36 months of
submission of assessment by COSEWIC to GoC (thru COSEWIC Annual
Report).
# of COSEWIC COSEWIC Annual
Species COSEWIC Status
DUs* Assessment Date Report Date
Sakinaw Sockeye 1 2016 (April) EN Oct 2016
Interior Fraser Coho 1 2016 (November) TH Oct 2017
Okanagan Chinook 1 2017 (April) EN Oct 2017
Fraser Sockeye (Group I) 24 2017 (November) 8 EN, 2 TH, 5 SC, 9 NAR Oct 2018
Steelhead Trout 2 2018 (January) 2 EN (Emergency)** N/A
(Thompson & Chilcotin)
Southern BC Chinook (Group I) 16 2018 (November) 8 EN, 4 TH, 1 SC, 1 NAR, 2 DD Anticipated Oct 2019
Fraser Sockeye (Group II) 7 2019 (November) Assessment not yet performed Anticipated Oct 2020
Steelhead Trout 2 2019 (November) Re-assessment not yet performed (non- Anticipated Oct 2020
(Thompson & Chilcotin) emergency)
Southern BC Chinook (Group II) 12 TBD Assessment not yet performed TBD
EN – Endangered, TH – Threatened, SC – Special Concern, NAR – Not at Risk, DD – Data Deficient
41. Context – New Listing Service Standard
• Announced Nov 27, 2017, two timelines for listing decisions for aquatic
species:
o 24 months from GoC Receipt of Assessment for “simple species”
Requires recommendation to be submitted to GiC w/in 15 months.
o 36 months from GoC Receipt of Assessment for “complex species” (e.g.
salmon)
Requires recommendation to be submitted to GiC w/in 27 months.
• Standard is to be applied:
o In full to all species assessed Nov 2017 onwards, includes Fraser Sockeye
and Southern BC Chinook.
o To the greatest extent possible to species in the 2017 COSEWIC Annual
Report (includes Okanagan Chinook and Interior Fraser Coho)
http://registrelep-sararegistry.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=367595D1-1
51. SARA Listing Process
Undertaken by COSEWIC
COSEWIC ASSESSMENT
SARA LISTING PROCESS For aquatic species,
Recovery Potential Assessment
Management Scenarios undertaken by DFO, in
Socio-economic Analysis consultation with First Nations
Consultations and Stakeholders
Listing recommendation
Decision by
DO NOT LIST REFER BACK TO Governor in Council,
LIST COSEWIC not DFO or ECCC
Not a SARA file Extirpated, Endangered, Threatened
Protected status, Recovery Strategy & Reassessment
Managed under (where info
alternative Action Plan, Critical Habitat
supports a change
Special Concern
regulatory
approach in COSEWIC status)
Management Plan only, no protections or
Critical Habitat
61. Context – Default Listing Position
• DFO will advise the List be amended for a species as assessed by COSEWIC, unless there
is a Compelling Rationale not to do so.
• When providing Do Not List Advice, DFO must:
o Provide Compelling Rationale
o Create and implement work plan if DFO will undertake incremental activities
o Report on work plan progress after 5 years.
• Compelling Rationale must address:
o Alternative recovery approach and expected outcomes in absence of listing
o Net benefits to Canadians of DNL decision.
• Compelling Rational is developed in consideration of multiple sources of information
including:
o COSEWIC Assessment, Recovery Potential Assessment, consultation results, approved management scenarios
and their impacts, analysis of costs and benefits.
o http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/species-especes/publications/sara-lep/policy-politique/index-eng.html
72. Chinook Management
2018 Preliminary results 2019 Expectations
• Fishing plans targeted 25-35% reduction in fishing • AABM Abundance Indices; expected continued
mortality for Chinook stocks of concern abundance decline based on ‘2-yr’ forecasts
– Assessment of fishery reductions will require CWT • Indices at or below 1979-82 base period value
data (March ‘19) • Official Abundance Index forecasts provided in April
– Assessment of conservation and allocation each year.
objectives in the 5yr Review of Fraser River Chinook 2.5
(Fraser Spring 42, Spring 52 and Summer 52) SEAK NBC WCVI
expected in Feb/Mar 2019.
2.0
(1 = average of 1979-82)
• Prelim. data from spawning ground surveys:
Abundance Index
– Fraser River : nearly all Chinook Salmon stocks 1.5
continued to decline; extremely low returns and
unprecedented levels of poor productivity for many
1.0
stocks.
– Instances of skewed sex ratios (mostly males) and
small body size reported for some systems 0.5
– Vancouver Island: returns were mixed; but some
positive results. 0.0
– Northern BC: majority of stocks monitored did not 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
achieve minimum spawning escapement levels.
82. Chinook Management
• Addressing the poor status / declines of many BC Chinook stocks requires continued
management actions in most areas.
• New management actions will need to be considered for Chinook fisheries where Fraser
Chinook may be encountered to support conservation and rebuilding of these stocks and
support prey availability for SRKW.
• This will require additional reductions in fisheries impacts in times and areas where Fraser
Chinook are encountered in Northern and Southern BC including First Nations, recreational
and commercial fisheries to pass as many Fraser Chinook as possible to spawning areas.
• Potential new management actions could include:
– New time and area closures to reduce impacts on stocks of concern in key rearing areas
and during peak migration periods;
– Reduced fishing effort or harvest allowances in Chinook directed fisheries;
– Chinook non-retention or consideration of mark selective (i.e. hatchery marked) Chinook
retention;
– A combination of measures.
92. Chinook Management
Process:
• Over the next several months, the Department plans to consult with First Nations
and stakeholders through existing processes to identify specific details of these
potential management actions that could be considered.
• Department will also seek input on potential biological, cultural, social and
economic consequences of potential actions to support decision making.
• Management measures identified in the current IFMPs (effective June 1, 2018 to
May 31, 2019) will be reviewed to consider additional measures that may be
required for early season fisheries that start in late winter/early spring 2019, as well
as, for fisheries later in the season.
103. Southern Resident Killer Whale (SRKW)
SRKW Objective:
The primary objective of
2018 fishery management
measures was to improve
Chinook Salmon availability
for SRKW by decreasing
potential fishery
competition, as well as,
minimizing physical and
acoustic disturbance from
fishing vessels in key
foraging areas to the extent
possible.
113. Management Measure Considerations:
When? May 1 to September 30th proposed as key dates given they
correspond with:
– Timing of SRKW foraging observations in these areas; and,
– Highest fishing effort in recreational salmon fishery
– June 1 implemented given decision timeframes in 2018
Which fisheries?
– commercial, recreational and First Nations salmon fisheries under
consideration here as these are the focus of salmon Integrated Fisheries
Management Plans.
What areas? Strait of Juan de Fuca, Gulf Islands, and Fraser mouth
– Three key foraging areas within the Canadian portion of the SRKW Critical
Habitat (current and proposed) identified based on SRKW foraging
observations 123. SRKW Monitoring / Evaluation
• Department committed to implementing measures on trial basis in 2018 with a
post-season assessment of measures.
• Range of potential performance measures identified e.g. SRKW body condition,
area use and foraging success; acoustic monitoring; vessel information (e.g.
creel survey over-flights) and available assessment information for Chinook
salmon.
• Fishery Management staff organized initial meeting with small group of program
specialists to discuss available information/observations that can be used to help
inform results of the 2018 fishery closures
• Meeting planned with SRKW committee to discuss performance metrics, data
sources and timelines when information will be available.
133. SRKW – 2019 Planning
• Department is reviewing additional fishery management actions to support increased
Chinook prey availability in key SRKW foraging areas within the SRKW Critical Habitat.
• Potential measures will be designed to provide an accessible food supply and to reduce
physical and acoustic disturbance in key SRKW foraging areas.
• The Department intends to implement measures in 2019 starting in late Winter/Spring to
coincide with the return of SRKW to the Salish Sea.
• Further discussion with First Nations and stakeholders on potential measures that may be
considered will occur as part of IFMP consultation process.
143. SRKW- 2019 Planning
• On October 31, 2018, Government announced a suite of additional bold measures focused on
broadening and strengthening protection for the species with an additional $61.5 million is being
committed to implement the new measures. (see http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/campaign-
campagne/protectingwhales-protegerbaleines/index-eng.html)
• The Indigenous and Multi-Stakeholder Advisory Group (IMAG) will continue to serve as a broad forum
for engagement and discussion on measures supporting the recovery of SRKW.
• Plan to convene technical working groups with policy, technical and scientific experts from federal
government, First Nations, environmental groups, industry and other areas to propose and advise on
specific actions to address imminent threats to the SRKW and facilitate their recovery.
• 5 TWGs being proposed including: Prey Availability and Accessibility; Identification and development of
proposed SRKW Sanctuaries; Vessel Noise (commercial vessel noise measures); Vessel Noise
(general noise measures); and Contaminants.
• TWGs expected to support identification of and propose:
a. Immediate actions – can be implemented by May 2019 in support of measures announced in the
Whales Initiative and on October 31
b. Longer-term actions – can be implemented and/or will achieve results over longer time frame
154. Interior Fraser Steelhead
Thompson and Chilcotin Steelhead Emergency Listing Process
https://www.registrelep-sararegistry.gc.ca/involved/consultation/default_e.cfm
– Imminent threat opinion not yet provided by Minister of ECCC
If no imminent threat – exits the Emergency Listing Process
If imminent threat then Minister ECCC must recommend listing to GIC
– Consultation period ended Dec 2
– SAR for RPA posted on SARA website November 21
– Cost-Benefit Analysis in progress
– Regional listing package to be provided to Ottawa in December
– Listing decision (if required) expected from GIC by late spring
2019
164. Interior Fraser Steelhead
2019 Fisheries Management – linkages to SARA
• Timing of GIC Listing Decision results in need to consult on both LIST
and DO NOT LIST Scenarios for 2019 IFMP
• DO NOT LIST Scenario similar to 2018 measures
– 27 day window closure in-river and for Johnstone Strait gillnets
– Reduced fishing time for salmon FSC in-river
– Minor modifications to this approach may be considered if alternative, but
equally effective, conservation measures are identified during consultations
– May require additional science advice concerning duration of closure period
174. Interior Fraser Steelhead
2019 Fisheries Management – linkages to SARA
• LIST Scenario
– Automatic general prohibitions under SARA
– Closures to all gear to which steelhead may be vulnerable, in times and areas
along the steelhead migration route (terminal exclusions)
– Closure duration currently projected to be 60 days, but may be longer pending
advice from Science
– Closure to FSC, recreational finfish, commercial
• Direct impacts on pink, sockeye, chum fisheries
– Area 126 closure from Aug 22 to Oct 21
– Fraser River Mouth from Sept 11 to Nov 10
• Kelt outmigration period
– actions expected in the future, but not identified for 2019
185. Fraser River Sockeye Management
• 2019 is sub-dominant cycle line for Fraser sockeye
• Quantitative forecasts will be available by February 2019.
• 2019 is also a Fraser pink salmon return year. Note:
declining trend for last two returns with 2017 return being
one of lowest in the last three decades.
• Planning will need to consider the potential for a range of
returns, as well as, specific management measures for
protecting and rebuilding stocks of concern including:
– duration of the window closure to protect weak stocks returning at
start of season;
– escapement plan for each aggregate; and,
– Additional management measures for stocks of concern.
19Fraser Sockeye Returns Return Forecast Probability Level Actual Year
6. Interior Fraser River (IFR) Coho
• Survival rates remain variable and are well below historic highs in most
areas; still in low productivity regime requiring lower exploitation rates.
• Interior Fraser Coho:
– key constraint on management of Southern BC fisheries; expect continuation of
precautionary management approach similar to pre-2014 for southern BC fisheries.
• Pacific Salmon Treaty (PST) status reference points and exploitation
rate (ER) caps
– Work to develop status-based management approach for Southern Coho Management
Units (MUs) by end 2018 to support Pacific Salmon Treaty renewal completed.
– Consultations occurred from January to April, 2018 and were informed by CSAS paper
(completed in Sept, 2017).
– Link to DFO’s consultation site and completed documents for more information:
http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/consultation/smon/pst-coho-tsp/index-eng.html
216. PST Reference Points and ER Caps for the IFR Coho MU
Low Moderate Abundant
Three consecutive years Three consecutive years
Survival S 1000; or each CU > 1000; or
Escapement and sub pops but no
• Aggregate MU esc. • Aggregate MU esc.
thresholds
objective (e.g., objective (e.g., revised
27,000) 40,000)
ER cap 0.20 0.30 0.45
(US/Can) (0.10/0.10) (0.12/0.18) (0.15/0.30)
Previous approach included ER caps of 20% for low; 40 for moderate and 65% for
abundant
226. IFR Coho Management Considerations
• No change to current 20% ER cap for low status in place since 2002. Note: each country’s
share of the 20% ER cap (10% each) may be managed to lower ERs based on domestic
planning (e.g. Canada implemented 3-5% ER on interior Fraser River MU in most years).
• ER Caps for moderate and abundant status categories for the IFR MU are lower consistent
with a desire to be cautious in the face of uncertain data and analysis, as well as, feedback
from consultations.
• No change to US shares of the IFR MU ER Caps.
• An improvement from Low to Moderate or Abundant status would be based on a
combination of marine survival rates and spawner abundance for IFR Coho.
• Canada required to inform US of IFR coho status category in March of each year.
• Status determination for SoG and LF Coho is not included given current data limitations but
may be considered in the future. However, we may revisit this approach in the future.
237. Five Nations Fishery Mgmt. Plan (FMP)
• The 2009 BCSC decision (Ahousaht Indian Band et al. v. Canada
(Attorney General) established:
– that Five Nuu-cha-nulth Nations (Ahousaht, Ehattesaht, Hesquiaht
Mowachaht/Muchalaht, and Tla-o-qui-aht) have a right to fish for any species
of fish within their court-defined fishing territories and to sell that fish (geoduck
was later excluded by the Court of Appeal).
– that Canada's fishing regime was a prima facie infringement of the Five
Nations' aboriginal right, except with respect to their harvesting of clams and
fish for food, social, and ceremonial purposes; and
– providing leave for the parties to return to Court to determine whether
Canada's prima facie infringement of the Five Nations' aboriginal right was
justified.
247. Five Nations FMP: Background
• In Mar./15, DFO and the Five Nations returned to the British Columbia
Supreme Court (BCSC) to determine whether Canada’s prima facie
infringement of the Five Nations’ aboriginal right was justified.
• On Apr. 19, 2018, the BCSC issued its decision and clarified how the the
right “to fish and sell fish” should be interpreted.
• The Five Nations' aboriginal right to fish and sell fish is to be interpreted as:
a) A non-exclusive, small scale, artisanal, local, multi-species fishery, to be
conducted in their court defined area for fishing, which extends nine nautical
miles offshore, using small, low-cost boats with limited technology and
restricted catching power, and aimed at wide community participation;
b) Providing predictable and long term fishing opportunities; and,
c) Allowing the sale of fish into the commercial marketplace with the
opportunity, but not the guarantee, of sustainability and viability.7. Five Nations FMP: Background
• The BCSC also found that some aspects of the legislative, regulatory and policy
regime that affect the Five Nations’ Aboriginal right are unjustified infringements.
• For example, the Court found that DFO’s Pacific Salmon Allocation Policy is not
justified in affording priority for chinook and coho to the recreational fishery over the
Five Nations’ Aboriginal rights-based commercial fishery.
• Immediately following the decision, the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans made a
public commitment that the Department would “work in collaboration with
Indigenous groups and all stakeholders to renew and co-develop this policy”.
• The Department intends to review the Salmon Allocation Policy consistent with the
direction of the BCSC.
• Over the coming months, DFO will be seeking input regarding both the scope and
process for this review.7. Five Nations Fishery Management Plan The Nov. 1/18 Court Order associated with the Apr. 19/18 BCSC decision effectively requires DFO to complete three steps by Mar. 31/19: 1. The Court Order requires DFO to present the Five Nations with a multi-species fishery management plan by Nov. 30/18 that addresses the unjustified infringements found by the BCSC. 2. DFO will then consult with the Five Nations, other First Nations and stakeholders about the plan between Dec. and Feb. 3. Finally, the Court Order requires that DFO provide the Five Nations with a final fishery management plan with fishing opportunities salmon, groundfish, prawn and crab that they can exercise as of the 2019 fishing season.
7. Five Nations Fishery Management Plan
• DFO provided the Five Nations with an Initial Multi-species Fishery
Management Plan on Nov. 30/18.
– The plan outlines proposed allocations and harvest plans for salmon,
groundfish, crab and prawn.
• DFO will be consulting with the Five Nations, other First Nations
and stakeholders between Dec./18 and Feb./19.
• Summarization, analysis and consideration of the consultation to
inform a Ministerial decision on the plan will need to occur prior to
Mar. 31/19, thus the goal is to finalize consultations in late
Feb./19.
• A multi-stakeholder meeting is planned for early Jan.; letters of
invite will be sent out mid Dec.8. Pacific Salmon Treaty Update
• Five fishing chapters in Annex IV of the Treaty expire on December 31, 2018
• Canada and the U.S. have reached agreement on proposed changes to five
“fishing chapters” in Annex IV of the Pacific Salmon Treaty (PST).
• Government of Canada is now in the process of ratifying the new agreement with a
view to beginning implementation on January 1, 2019.
• This will create a new 10-year conservation and harvest sharing arrangement
under the PST.
• Chapter 4 (Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon) expires December 31, 2019
and renegotiations are currently underway within the PSC regarding renewal of the
chapter.
298. Pacific Salmon Treaty Update
Some of the key elements of the proposed agreement include:
• Implementation of an abundance-based management and harvest sharing
arrangement for Taku River Coho salmon;
• New language regarding conservation actions to be taken in Southeast Alaska
when Skeena and Nass sockeye are at low abundances;
• Harvest reductions in Canadian and U.S. AABM and ISBM fisheries to address
ongoing conservation concerns for Chinook stocks in both countries;
• For Southern Coho, creation of a single Strait of Georgia management unit (MU),
replacing two prior MUs and the development of a status-based management
approach for Canadian MUs; and,
• Creation of two “breakpoints” for Fraser River chum.
309. CSAF Demonstration Fisheries
• Confirmation of continued interest in existing CSAF demonstrations
and submissions of any new demonstration fishery proposals (or
substantial changes to existing proposals) should be submitted by
proponents to Cynthia.Johnston@dfo-mpo.gc.ca and their local
Fisheries Manager no later than January 28th, 2019.
• As in previous years, this is to ensure sufficient time for the
Department to evaluate the proposals and provide an opportunity for
feedback and discussion though the draft IFMP consultation process.
• Demonstration fishery proposals that are not submitted by this
deadline will not be considered for the 2019 season.
31Pacific Salmon Outlook - 2019
General conditions
• Expectation that returns of many Pacific salmon populations may continue to be
influenced by effects of large scale variability in ocean conditions (e.g. warm
blob, El Nino, warm blob) in the North Pacific and freshwater environments.
– Continued uncertainty about salmon returns that have become increasingly
variable and more challenging to reliably forecast.
• Diminished returns for a number key salmon runs in the Pacific region are
expected which may require adjustments to management plans to achieve
conservation objectives and provide sustainable harvest opportunities.
• Please join us for the presentation of the 2019 Pacific Salmon Outlook and State
of the Pacific Ocean (with focus on environmental conditions faced by salmon)
planned for December 14 from 9-12 by webinar.
32Relating Ocean Conditions to Salmon Returns
• Most Pacific salmon returning to spawn in 2019 reared as juveniles in the
Northeast Pacific Ocean between 2016 and 2019, depending on their life-history
and age-at-maturity.
– 2015 ocean entry for age 51 ocean type Chinook
– 2016 ocean entry for age 41 ocean type Chinook, age 52 Sockeye, and age 52 Chinook.
– 2017 ocean entry for age 42 Sockeye and upper Fraser 42 Chinook (and most other
yearling Chinook)
– 2018 ocean entry for age 3 Coho and age 2 even-year Pink salmon
• Overall, environmental conditions have been warmer than average in the Northeast
Pacific Ocean and in British Columbia and the Yukon affecting all life stages of
Pacific salmon returning in 2019.
• While response of individual salmon populations vary, general observations include
below average survival for most Fraser Sockeye, Chinook and Pink stocks; coast-
wide declines and smaller body sizes and decreases in age-at-maturity for
Chinook, and overall greater variability in salmon production.
33Activity
DFO letter identifying potential changes under consideration to
Proposed Timelines
December 2018
2019 IFMP
inform subsequent IFMP planning meetings.
2019 Salmon Outlook and State of the Ocean report. Dec 14th, 2018 from 9 am to
Timelines:
All First Nations and stakeholders invited to attend. 12pm – via Conference
Call/WebEx
Deadline for written submissions from First Nations and advisory January 11, 2019
groups on issues identified in DFO letter. Proposals for new
demonstration fisheries are also requested by Jan. 28.
Integrated Harvest Planning Committee Meetings to review and FN Forum (Jan 29-31)
discuss potential changes to IFMPs and opportunity for focussed
discussion on key IFMP issues. Northern - Prince Rupert
(February 5)
Additional meetings with First Nations organizations and advisory
groups are also identified in the salmon calendar. Southern IHPC – Vancouver
(February 6) meetings
Release draft IFMPs for public review & comment Approx. February 22
Meetings to review draft IFMP Northern IHPC – Prince
Rupert (March 6); and,
Southern IHPC – Vancouver
(March 7)
FN Forum (March 12-14)
Deadline to submit comments on draft IFMP (30 day comment April 8
period).
Final Meetings for discussion on IFMP feedback. Full IHPC (April 24-25)
FN Forum (Apr 26 or 30) –
webex
Target for public release of salmon IFMP 34 34 JuneBACKGROUND SLIDES:
353. Strait of Juan De Fuca
2018 Map of closures for the Strait of Juan de Fuca
June 1 to Sept. 30: Finfish closure for recreational fishery and salmon
closure for commercial fishery in Subareas 20-3, 20-4 and a portion of
Subarea 20-5 west of Otter Point.
363. Gulf Islands
Map of closures for the Gulf Islands
June 1 to Sept. 30: Finfish closure for recreational fishery and salmon
closure for commercial fishery in Subareas
37 18-2, 18-4, 18-5 and 18-9.3. Mouth of the Fraser River Map of closures for the Mouth of the Fraser River June 1 to Sept. 30: Recreational salmon fishing closure in Subareas 29-7, 29-9 & 29-10. June 1 to July 31: Recreational and commercial salmon fishing closure in Subarea 29-6. Aug.1 to Sept. 30: Recreational and38commercial Chinook non-retention in Subarea 29-6.
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