Narratives of Crisis: How Framing Urban Shrinkage and Depopulation Shapes Policy and Planning Responses in Spain, Germany and The Netherlands - MDPI
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sustainability
Article
Narratives of Crisis: How Framing Urban Shrinkage and
Depopulation Shapes Policy and Planning Responses in Spain,
Germany and The Netherlands
Bozhidar Ivanov
Department International Planning Systems, Technische Universität Kaiserslautern, 67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany;
bozhidar.ivanov@ru.uni-kl.de
Abstract: Academic research on urban shrinkage and depopulation has advanced significantly in
recent years, mostly by attributing causality between the reasons and consequences of shrinkage in the
positivist tradition of planning research. This paper critically analyzes shrinkage and depopulation
as an issue of planning and policymaking in a broader institutional context. By applying a qualitative
interpretive policy analysis methodology to planning and policy narratives from Spain, Germany
and The Netherlands, this article highlights and scrutinizes how policymakers and planners have
framed shrinkage, and how this framing has justified some of the selected planning and policy
approaches. It is concluded that framing shrinkage in practice may only partially encompass the
scientific definitions. It is also concluded that framing shrinkage and depopulation as a crisis may be
determined by locally and temporally important issues as well as differences in planning cultures,
Citation: Ivanov, B. Narratives of
which in practice may distance the understanding of the phenomenon from the scientific definitions.
Crisis: How Framing Urban Debates on shrinkage conceptualization and the development of new planning concepts can become
Shrinkage and Depopulation Shapes more applicable in practice by incorporating insights from qualitative investigations. This can bring
Policy and Planning Responses in them closer to planning practice and embed them in a wider planning system context, so as to
Spain, Germany and The Netherlands. produce more applicable and contextually sensitive proposals for addressing shrinkage.
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11045. https://
doi.org/10.3390/su131911045 Keywords: urban shrinkage; shrinking cities; urban planning; urban policy; planning systems;
planning cultures; interpretive policy analysis; comparative urban research
Academic Editors: Helen Mulligan,
Karina Pallagst, Rene Fleschurz,
Thorsten Wiechmann,
Paulo Conceição and Miguel Amado
1. Introduction
Received: 18 August 2021
The research field of urban shrinkage has advanced significantly in recent years. With
Accepted: 3 October 2021 various theoretical and empirical contributions, urban shrinkage and shrinking cities have
Published: 6 October 2021 become a cornerstone in urban and planning research. Prior to reaching a scientific con-
sensus of urban shrinkage as a complex phenomenon of urban change, the development
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral trajectories of cities were viewed mostly from a political-economic standpoint. Kondrati-
with regard to jurisdictional claims in eff’s view on the cyclical nature of economic development [1] and the theory proposed by
published maps and institutional affil- Molotch for the city as a growth machine [2] have shaped earlier views on urban decline
iations. as a natural and temporary process that is strongly dependent on economic justifications.
With recent advances in the field, especially after the fall of the Iron Curtain in Europe,
extensive longitudinal research on the questions of urban population decline has con-
tributed to advancing the understanding of these processes of urban change as a more
Copyright: © 2021 by the author. complex phenomenon that goes beyond economic determinism. Seminal works, such as
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. the Atlas of Shrinking Cities [3] have traced the phenomenon of urban population decline
This article is an open access article across the globe and have identified that various causes and trajectories of shrinkage occur
distributed under the terms and in different settings. Cities may depopulate as a result of natural disasters, warfare and nat-
conditions of the Creative Commons ural demographic processes, among others, in addition to the influence of major economic
Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// shifts. The timeline of change in cities may encompass longer periods of decline, followed
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ by phases of growth [4], thus contributing to the economic perspective on urban shrinkage.
4.0/).
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11045. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131911045 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability
Sustainability 2021, 13, 11045 2 of 23
The advances of globalization and its cultural and economic effects have also been associ-
ated with urban shrinkage and population decline across the globe [5,6]. The population
dynamic, however, may also be indicative of long-term processes of demographic change
that are inevitable or are less prone to being influenced by economic or other factors [7].
Recent advances in the field of urban shrinkage have examined the causes, conse-
quences and solutions of the phenomenon. From a European perspective, demographic
trends and migration have often been associated with urban shrinkage, especially when
contrasting Eastern and Western Europe [8,9]. Embedding urban shrinkage in a broader
demographic and geographical context has also expanded the scope of the phenomenon,
since depopulation processes may encompass regions or whole countries. The reunification
of Germany at the beginning of the 1990s brought this perspective of the phenomenon to
the center of shrinkage research, with the massive migration waves that occurred within
the unified country in parallel to economic decline [10]. The economic causes of urban
shrinkage, mostly associated with deindustrialization in the West [11], were now accom-
panied by post-socialist transitions in Eastern Europe that had significant depopulation
effects [12]. The research on post-socialist urban shrinkage similarly illustrated that the
effects on cities go beyond population decline and result in diverse economic, social and
physical consequences [13].
The field began to encompass also the effects of urban shrinkage by extensively ex-
amining the consequences of shrinkage and offering potential solutions [14]. Scientists
review and suggest approaches to handling shrinkage-related issues, such as housing va-
cancy [15], brownfield vacancy [16], economic and spatial regeneration [17], and economic
recovery [18]. Research in the field has often led to the formulation of recommendations
and further discussions on possible ways of addressing shrinkage consequences. These
discussions have been informed by a specific normative orientation of shrinkage strategies—
aiming for overcoming shrinkage by pursuing regrowth [19] or accepting and managing
shrinkage [10,20,21]. The illustrated development of the field has led to an unstable yet
rich terrain of conceptualizations of shrinkage in academic debates.
These debates have attempted to universalize and structure rational and measurable
criteria for urban shrinkage through the formulation of definitions. Urban shrinkage
definitions have often encompassed a causal link between a specific reason for urban
shrinkage, such as globalization or deindustrialization, and a number of consequences that
can be observed in cities, such as depopulation and vacancy [6,22]. This has often led to
viewing urban shrinkage as a distinguishable situation of a measurable crisis with different
manifestations in specific cities. Conceptual discussions on defining urban shrinkage have
had challenges identifying a specific set of indicators or characteristics that determine the
phenomenon [23]. These attempts have greatly expanded the field and have contributed to
a broader understanding of the phenomenon as part of academic debates. The theoretical
reflections on defining shrinkage have also been used as a stepping stone for recommen-
dations for handling shrinkage, as illustrated above. Conceptualizing urban shrinkage as
a measurable and observable crisis that requires particular solutions has been solidified
by a rationalist scientific approach to the question that has also triggered criticism. The
attempts to rationally simplify and synthesize shrinkage have created challenges in com-
parative research and may have limited the possibility of advancing practically applicable
approaches to it [24]. Attributing the causality of specific issues to urban shrinkage may
have oversimplified their relationship since some issues that occur under conditions of
urban shrinkage may also occur under conditions of growth [25]. These trends may have
created an unnecessary exceptionalism of shrinking cities, thus further disconnecting them
from questions of scale, such as regional processes, as well as from broader political and
economic contexts [26]. In any case, population decline has remained at the center of the
proposed conceptualizations but it has been accompanied by a variety of other topics and
considerations [27]. Despite the over-inclusivity of the field, scientists have significantly
advanced the conceptualization of urban shrinkage. The theoretical debates have led to the
inclusion not only of objectively measurable phenomena of shrinkage in the definitions butSustainability 2021, 13, 11045 3 of 23
also of soft factors, such as local politics, agendas and further contextual specifics [28–30]
As illustrated also by previous research, the interpretation of urban shrinkage and depopu-
lation by policy agents and planners may differ from the attempts of scientists to reach a
universal definition. It is possible that shrinkage is, in planning and policymaking practice,
closer to the “amorphous situation” referred to by Fischer [31] (p. 146) than to the “fuzzy
concept” outlined by Olsen, echoing Markusen [29,32].
This article attempts to illustrate how urban shrinkage and depopulation have been
interpreted in three distinctive contexts and across institutional scales. In order to illustrate
this interpretation in practice, the article examines the process of framing urban shrinkage
and depopulation. Subsequently, this paper traces how the framing of urban shrinkage
and depopulation as a specific type of crisis, in the three distinctive contexts, is utilized
as a justification for the selection of policy, planning approaches and solutions to the
constellation of issues. The article argues that framing shrinkage as a crisis of specific
nature is, in policy and planning practice, dependent on variations in planning cultures
and planning systems. Omitting those differences and contextual specifics in theoretical
debates on urban shrinkage may have negative effects on the practical applicability of
suggested approaches to shrinkage and depopulation.
Firstly, in order to shift the focus from the spatial and measurable effects of shrink-
age to interpretations and the formulation of meanings in planning and policymaking
practice, this work proposes a qualitative interpretive methodology, in the tradition of
interpretive policy analysis. Such a methodological approach counteracts the momentum
of rationalization in the urban shrinkage field and contributes to a more critical perspective
than the already available knowledge in the field. Secondly, taking into account criticism
on urban shrinkage as being insufficiently integrated into local contexts and scales, the
article explores approaches to depopulation from an urban planning and policymaking
perspective by viewing the consequences or effects of population decline as a complex
issue that involves various institutional levels across planning systems, rather than only as
a problem of spatial or urban planning. By applying an interpretive policy analysis method
to a broader set of planning and policy approaches, this paper attempts to “reconnect” the
discussions on how shrinkage can be conceptualized back to practice. This would mean
focusing not solely on the ex-post assessment, summarization and classification of specific
effects and solutions to shrinkage, but on the ways that depopulation and its effects have
been understood in the broader context of planning and policymaking in the respective
contexts, and how this understanding has shaped the responses to them. Consequently,
the scientific focus shifts from an emphasis on solutions to the broader process of the
creation, justification and implementation of planning and policy responses, embedded in
the context of various planning systems.
This approach is applied to policy and planning narratives from a period when ad-
dressing the consequences of urban shrinkage in Bilbao (Spain) and Leipzig (Germany)
coincided with the stabilization or regrowth of the population. The topics of investigation
are policy and planning attempts between the years 2000 and 2015, in both cases. Bilbao
has been chosen as a representative case of post-industrial urban shrinkage, while Leipzig
has been selected as an example of post-socialist urban shrinkage. These two types of
urban shrinkage are representative of the varieties of the phenomenon in Europe [33]. In
addition to those case studies, the third case represents a non-typical example of approach-
ing depopulation—a proactive national and regional policy. The policy approaches to
depopulation in The Netherlands, their anticipatory design and their application in the
province of Zeeland after the year 2010, are a specific way of handling the challenges of
depopulation from a broader policy perspective.
Shifting the focus from measuring and tracking the effects of shrinkage to formulations
and interpretations of shrinkage as a broader policy and planning issue allows analysts
to uncover the explicit or implicit frames, causal links, objectives, and interpretations of
factors in the practices of planning and policymaking that form narratives of crisis and to
juxtapose them with the causal links, introduced in the academic shrinkage conceptual-Sustainability 2021, 13, 11045 4 of 23
ization debates. Shifting scientific attention from evaluating and measuring the effects of
shrinkage to critically examining interpretations of the phenomenon in a broader institu-
tional framework contributes to bringing urban shrinkage scholarship closer to planning
and policymaking practice. This contributes to the increased contextual sensitivity of urban
shrinkage scholarship, as well as to debates on the normative orientation of shrinkage
strategies and their potential for implementation in various planning systems.
2. Methods
The main method utilized for the proposed analysis is a variation of interpretive policy
analysis, designed specifically for the purposes of a cross-national comparative planning
study that has informed the results presented in this paper [34–37]. The design and
selection of the method have been strongly informed by the works of Frank Fischer, John
Forester, Martin Rein, Donald Schön and Deborah Stone. These authors have provided
key contributions to the development of the field of interpretive policy analysis. One
stepping-stone for the formation of the proposed method is the epistemological orientation
of post-empiricism, also known as post-positivism, that considers reality as an observable
phenomenon, parts of which are subject to objective analysis, but one that can never be
fully explained or analyzed, given its social nature [31]. In the context of policy and
planning responses to urban shrinkage and depopulation, this presupposition requires
reflection and analysis of the meanings attributed by planners and policymakers to the
issue they are attempting to solve, as well as to the desired effects of the proposed measures
or approaches. This echoes the argument by Healey [38] that planning is ultimately
a collaborative process between different actors that attribute different meanings and
understandings to the object of planning (or the urban landscape). Additionally, Batty [39]
argues for planning research that incorporates a more critical understanding of the urban
landscape beyond the strictly rational tradition, one that also takes into account the social
nature of the studied phenomena.
In order to identify how the shrinkage-related issues were understood and interpreted
by policymakers and planners, the method attempts to identify three specific discursive
elements as part of the analysis and to highlight the relationships among them. The first and
most important element is the frame. As outlined by Fischer and Rein, and Schön [31,40],
framing is one of the key cognitive processes that support the generation of meaning in
the process of policymaking. It is the process through which policy agents attempt to
make sense of “amorphous situations” [31] (p. 146). Therefore, the emphasis on framing
urban shrinkage in practice may bring valuable insight as to how specific manifestations of
shrinkage were understood and why a particular approach was chosen by the particular
planners and policymakers.
This brings forward the second element of the proposed methodological approach—
the identification of stories. Stone [41] defines stories as a key element in the formation
of policy issues by policymakers. The story suggests that there is a choice that can be
made to respond to a specific situation, as well as what the direction of this choice can
be. Stories introduce the possibility of exerting control on reality by policymakers, thus
justifying the very need for policy and planning. Stories are the discursive elements that
introduce the notion of crisis and are particularly suitable for the perspective explored in
this article—defining a policy problem as a crisis (of something) suggests that this crisis
requires a solution and that the policymaker can provide it. One of the key examples that
Stone gives is the particular story of decline used in policymaking—the story outlines a
situation that gradually worsens over time, to an extent that becomes intolerable; thus,
it has to be addressed. Stories are a vital part of the formation of policy and planning
narratives and have influence not only on the formation of the understanding of the
issue, thus complementing the framing, but also on the selection of responses to the issue
being framed.
This brings forward the last element of the proposed method: the normative leap. The
normative leap has been defined by Rein and Schön as the step from “is” to “ought” [40]Sustainability 2021, 13, 11045 5 of 23
(p. 148). It outlines the cognitive stage that follows the framing of the issue in the policy
sense. The problem is understood in a certain way; it is framed to be a specific situation
(as it is) and the remedy for it is supposed to change the situation in a specific way (as
the situation ought to be). Normative leaps represent the essence of policy and planning
measures and solutions; they often expose both the objectives of a certain measure and
the desired effects of it. Therefore, they form an important component of a more nuanced
analysis of urban shrinkage and depopulation in various contexts. Consequently, this
contributes to a more critical analysis of the way that shrinkage and depopulation were
understood, expanding the analysis beyond not only what the measures or approaches
to shrinkage have been but also why those particular measures were chosen—bridging
the gap with the framing processes that have been exposed with the other two discursive
elements (frames and stories).
The proposed discursive elements of the frame, story and normative leap are identified
in parallel as part of the analysis (Figure 1). As a result, the analysis exposes coherent
interpretive constructs that have been identified in the respective policy and planning
narratives. Policy and planning narratives are the main empirical data source for this
paper. In a post-positivist sense, the narratives of reality are subject to scientific inquiry,
and knowledge can be derived from them as part of the scientific inquiry [31,42].
Figure 1. Visualization of the interpretive policy analysis method. Left to right and top to bottom—
planning and policy practices, entities and actors on different levels of the planning system interpret
the effects of shrinkage and depopulation and frame them in various narratives of crisis, represented
by frames. The framing, represented by frames, determines the responses and measures, represented
by normative leaps. Stories may connect the frames and normative leaps. The discursive elements
are identified in the narratives of documents and interviews analyzed as the main source of empirical
data. Interpretive constructs, consisting of those elements, are represented in the Results section.
The main source of empirical data for the narratives is selected policy and planning
documents from various levels of the planning systems in the three selected cases, as
well as interviews with policy and planning experts. For all three cases, some documents
that are reviewed date from two or three years before the outlined timespans, due to the
specifics of the approval processes or because they influenced the course of events during
the period of interest. The document data has been collected from available public sources
and official inquiries made with institutions in the period between May 2020 and April
2021. The data from documents has been processed with the MAXQDA software. Remote
and face-to-face interviews with experts and politicians took place in June 2020 in The
Netherlands, and between June and July 2021 in Germany and Spain. Field visits and
observations took place in the same periods, respectively.
Since this paper attempts to examine the practices of planning and policymaking,
the periods were chosen because of the accumulation of active attempts to address the
consequences of urban shrinkage and depopulation. For the presented cases of Bilbao
and Leipzig, the time span of interest is between 2000 and 2015. This period has been
chosen as a turning point for both of the cities in question. For both cities, planning andSustainability 2021, 13, 11045 6 of 23
policy efforts to address the consequences of shrinkage started before the year 2000 but
continued afterward; thus, the period represents a timespan when the cumulative effects of
long-term efforts can be traced in parallel with continuing measures in an already changing
demographic setting. In the case of the province of Zeeland, the period chosen is between
2010 and 2020. In The Netherlands, the problem of depopulation is regional in nature and
the measures to address it are being developed in a predominantly anticipatory manner.
After 2010, depopulation in Zeeland began to be addressed gradually, while in parallel,
further anticipatory measures were drafted.
Back in 1983, large-scale floods significantly affected the central parts of Bilbao
(Figure 2). During the same decade, large sections of the industry moved out of the
city or closed due to changing global economic conditions, leaving vast unused industrial
spaces in the center of Bilbao. Starting in 1984, long-term efforts to decontaminate the
Nervión river began and continued for many years ahead [43]. At the beginning of the
1990s, the political decision to build the Guggenheim Museum was taken and the museum
itself was inaugurated in 1997 [44]. Bilbao continuously lost population throughout the
1990s (Table 1) and experienced vast spatial effects from industrial closure. Partial measures
for urban regeneration began as early as the beginning of the 1990s, but shortly before and
after the year 2000, the efforts of urban planning, policymaking and territorial planning
began to overlap. This coincided with the gradual stabilization of the population of the city.
Figure 2. Map illustrating the locations of the selected cases. 1—Bilbao, 2—Leipzig, 3—Province of Zeeland.
Table 1. Population of Bilbao in selected years since 1991, illustrating the population loss and
subsequent relative stabilization of the population. Source: EUSTAT.
Year 1991 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015
Population of Bilbao 369,839 358,875 354,271 353,173 353,187 345,141
Following the German reunification in 1990, Leipzig became part of the newly es-
tablished federal state of Saxony (Figure 2). The eastern part of the country adopted the
already established administrative and governance system from the west over the courseSustainability 2021, 13, 11045 7 of 23
of the 1990s. In a process similar to other post-socialist transitions, the eastern part of
Germany and, respectively, Leipzig as a major urban center, experienced a shocking and
fast economic, social and political upheaval with the adoption of a democratic system and
market economy within a very short timeframe. The main difference in this context is that
the former GDR became part of an already established democratic federal state, as opposed
to other post-socialist countries in Eastern Europe, where those changes had to take place
through a complete overhaul of the existing system from within. The opening up of the
economy of the eastern part of the country to the globalizing international markets, ones
to which the western part already had access, led to a rapid decrease in industrial activity
in Leipzig and, consequently, to high unemployment rates. The possibility of migrating
to the western part of the newly unified Germany allowed many citizens to move away.
This opportunity, paired with lower fertility rates, exacerbated the population dynamic in
Leipzig, thus further contributing to the depopulation of the city between 1990 and 2000
(Table 2). In parallel, during the 1990s, government subsidies for single-family housing
led to an additional outmigration from the urban core to the neighboring areas [45]. Some
key projects for the future of the city were also implemented throughout this period—the
construction of the new fairgrounds, the establishment of a new industrial–business zone to
the north, and the expansion of the Leipzig–Halle airport [46]. As can be seen by the nature
of these projects, they were targeting competitiveness and the economic reinvention of the
city, but this revival did not happen as fast as expected during the 1990s and coincided with
the vast depopulation of Leipzig, leading also to significant land and housing vacancy. In
this context, toward the year 2000, an administrative decision was taken to incorporate the
settlements in the surrounding area of Leipzig back to the city. With the gradual realization
that depopulation and urban shrinkage were happening not only in Leipzig but also in the
eastern part of the country as a whole, the different levels of the planning system, as well
as the federal government, gradually began to look for solutions. Thus, after the year 2000,
various measures by urban planning, regional planning, federal and state policies began to
work in parallel in Leipzig which coincided with the gradual increase of the population.
Table 2. Population of Leipzig in selected years since 1989, illustrating the scale of population loss
and the subsequent increase in population. The spike in population numbers between 1998 and 2001
is as a result of the administrative expansion of the city. Source: City of Leipzig.
Year 1989 1998 2001 2005 2010 2015
Population of Leipzig 530,010 437,101 493,208 498,491 522,883 560,472
Population decline and consequent urban shrinkage are rather an exception in The
Netherlands. As of 2021, the country’s population is steadily growing, and government
policies are focused on facilitating this growth. Nevertheless, some border areas of the
country have been experiencing population decline for some years; this has led to various
policy and planning efforts that have been subject to investigation [47,48]. The researched
examples of shrinking cities in The Netherlands are usually part of a wider area that is
losing its population. Zeeland is a province of The Netherlands, located in the south-
western part of the country, bordering Belgium (Figure 2). Geographically, the province is
unique as it is located on the delta of the Scheldt river, exposed to the North Sea. Historically,
the province consisted of a number of separate islands that were connected to the mainland
through land reclamation efforts, as well as the massive engineering solution of Delta
Works, built as a protective barrier after the devastating flood of 1953. The geographical
characteristics of the province are an important consideration regarding the nature of the
depopulation phenomenon there. Firstly, the province is somewhat isolated from the rest
of the country. Secondly, the population within the province is unequally spread in small
settlements across the former island areas, as well as in the isolated region of Zeelandic
Flanders, on the border with Belgium. Zeelandic Flanders is one of the regions within the
province that already experiences depopulation. It is detached from the rest of the provinceSustainability 2021, 13, 11045 8 of 23
and thus the country, and is connected with them through an underwater tunnel and a
pedestrian ferry. Zeeland as a whole is expected to depopulate in the long term (Table 3).
In that context, the provincial administration of Zeeland has to facilitate the depopulation
policy by balancing specific regional characteristics as well as maintaining a larger-scale
view of the governance of the whole province. The questions of depopulation and urban
shrinkage, as well as all policy efforts for them, developed gradually in The Netherlands
after the year 2010 when various scientific reports highlighted the demographic trends in
the regions in question [49]. In that sense, the Dutch context is in a more favorable position
than that of other European countries, especially in Eastern Europe, where depopulation
processes are much more severe and are rapidly unfolding.
Table 3. Population of Zeeland between 2015 and 2020. Population growth is slowing down and is
forecasted to decline in upcoming years. Source: CBS Netherlands.
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Population of the
380,726 381,252 381,568 382,304 383,073 383,488
province of Zeeland
The three cases in this article have comparable population thresholds (between 300,000
and 600,000), which allows a comparison between urban and regional planning and policy
efforts in various planning settings.
3. Results
3.1. Bilbao
3.1.1. Planning System Characteristics
Bilbao’s transformation has been a long-term process, starting back in the 1980s. Its
development has been influenced strongly by the establishment of planning processes in
the autonomous community of the Basque Country, where Bilbao is located. The 1978
constitution, establishing the democratic foundations of modern Spain, provided different
regimes of autonomy for the 17 autonomous communities in Spain. The overall territorial
planning and the related planning system structures were delegated to the competence
of each autonomous government except in those matters that transcend the community
borders, such as airspace and coastal management, among others. As a result, in the
1980s, the Basque Country had to gradually establish the necessary administrative, legal
and procedural competencies in order to manage its territory and, consequently, its cities.
Additionally, the Basque Country’s statute of autonomy also allows it to pursue a separate
tax policy and an almost independent economic policy from the rest of Spain [50]. The
processes of establishing the abovementioned competencies took longer than expected
and left long periods of planning and legislative voids. The law of territorial ordinance
of the Basque Country was not approved until 1990, while a follow-up law for land
and urbanism was approved in 2006. A quasi-regulatory quasi-strategic document was
approved on the level of the autonomous community in 1997—the directives for territorial
ordinance. On an urban level, the preliminary outline of Bilbao’s general plan (“Avance”,
in Spanish) was published in 1989, but the plan itself only came into effect 6 years later,
in 1995. This timeframe coincided with the urban shrinkage processes in Bilbao, as well
as with the aftermath of other spatial and environmental events that have influenced
the city’s trajectory. This background overview is important in order to illustrate the
context of the changes that took place, as well as to show that toward the end of the
1990s, the city reached a tipping point in the establishment of planning processes and
their implementation. The planning and policymaking processes that have been reviewed
encompass the territorial planning of the Basque Country at the level of the autonomous
community, the metropolitan-level planning of the area of Bilbao, and the local level of
urban planning. The latter two involve a fragmented landscape of strategic planning and
executive agencies and departments with clearly defined responsibilities.Sustainability 2021, 13, 11045 9 of 23
3.1.2. Bilbao’s Urban Shrinkage as an Economic Transition and Spatial Crisis
The interpretation, framing and approach to the changes taking place in Bilbao in the
context of the Basque Country rely heavily on the intertwined perspectives of economy
and space. The 1997 directives of territorial ordinance of the Basque Country illustrate
these frames with an overview of the economic transition taking place in the autonomous
community. The primacy of the industrial past of the region is interpreted as the main
driver of the migratory, territorial and social development of the whole community. The
main frame in this context is introduced with the notion of industrial decline, understood
as an impactful process to the whole community and, respectively, to its urban cores,
areas that were previously central locations of economic and social concentration and
are now losing their importance, due to the economic changes taking place. The process
is framed as a “rupture” of the associated territorial development of the community,
leading to an outmigration from the urban cores as a result of a significant economic
transition. The territorial perspective then proceeds to identify opportunities for a more
balanced territorial development of the autonomous community, stepping onto economic
and territorial models.
At a local level in Bilbao, similar frames, complemented by stories, are being used. In
interviews with planners and policy experts of the city, there is a remarkable consistency in
the way that the changes in the city are explained. The key role of Bilbao in its industrial
heyday is contrasted to the gradual decline of industry in the late twentieth century.
Industrial decline is framed as the major economic process taking place but, in the context
of the city, its spatial effects are outlined on a par with its economic and social challenges.
The economic downturn is associated with outmigration from the historic city core that was
additionally worsened by the floods, affecting mostly the historic old town. Outmigration
is also contextualized in the broader Spanish context as industrial Bilbao attracted many
workers from the rest of the country. The effects on the remaining population are framed
again from an economic standpoint, as high unemployment rates. The spatial effects of
those changes are framed with an emphasis on the centrality of the former industrial areas
in the city—close to the river and in an attractive space at the center of Bilbao. The gradual
closure or relocation of those industries (to the outer port on the Atlantic coast) leaves vast
industrial spaces obsolete. This is usually the accent of the frame or story that explores
the spatial effects of the industrial transition. Particular emphasis in this regard is placed
on the areas of Abandoibarra and Zorrotzaurre, which were the main industrial and port
zones of the city. In addition to the framing of this spatial crisis, the development of the
former workers’ neighborhood of Bilbao La Vieja is also associated with the economic
downturn—the outmigration there is interpreted as the main reason for the long-term
social issues and lower quality of life in the area. The overall changes in the city in that
period are interpreted as negatively affecting its image, thus rendering it unattractive as a
place to live.
In the planning documents at a local level, the emphasis of the frames about the city’s
transformation is mostly placed on the economic aspect and not as much on the spatial
one. The partial territorial plan of the city from 2006, for example, frames the negative
spatial effects of the economic transformation as only being partially overcome, referring
to the vast, obsolete industrial areas. The available space is framed as a resource that
can be explored as a new basis for economic activity in the city. The emphasis on the
economic transition from an industrial to a service-oriented city is prominently placed
as a story of change. On the level of specific areas, the area of Zorrotzaurre, for instance,
is framed as a problematic environment comprising a small amount of active industrial
spaces, together with a number of obsolete buildings of lower quality. From an economic
perspective, the same plan from 2006 negatively frames the insufficient number of new
firms being opened in the city. This predominantly economic perspective is complemented
by certain documents, the product of strategic reflections between companies and the
public administration in Bilbao’s metropolitan area. The main stories outlined in thoseSustainability 2021, 13, 11045 10 of 23
strategic documents after the year 1999 emphasize the endogenous economic potential of
the city, framed as a likely source of future competitiveness for the area.
The economic–spatial intersection of the frames and stories remains central in the
formation of the normative leaps that justify the respective measures and interventions
after the year 2000, but it is complemented by a number of objectives and goals that do not
necessarily correspond to a specific frame or story of a crisis or problem. On the level of
territorial planning in the Basque country, the centrality and importance of designating
space for economic activities are highlighted as an activity of “undoubted general interest”;
thus, any intervention in allocating such a space is deemed to be necessary and important.
On a local level, the economic–spatial dimension of framing corresponds consistently with
the normative leaps placed on the regeneration of the central areas of Abandoibarra and
Zorrotzaurre, for instance. The planning experts’ points of view reveal that the overall
projects for those spaces serve the goal of creating new points of economic activity in the
actual city. Additionally, the projects there contribute to other economic goals, such as
enabling the human capital of the city (through universities and technological centers) and
projecting the city’s image internationally, resulting in mass or congress tourism. From this
economic perspective, the framing and the normative leaps show consistency.
However, the expert point of view also reveals that these objectives are far from the
only ones that were established when the various interventions were designed. The area of
Abandoibarra, where the main promenade and the Guggenheim Museum are located, was
previously significantly contaminated and was predominantly industrial. The completion
of the project after the year 2000 is considered as an intervention in the central zones that
has contributed to an overall improvement in the quality of life for the citizens of the
whole city, since the area has been effectively reclaimed as a predominantly public space
of high quality, with innovative urban design and architecture. The project is viewed
as a sustainable urbanization intervention as it reuses the available space successfully.
Similarly, the second large-scale project—the area of Zorrotzaurre that is currently being
regenerated—will also transform a predominantly industrial area into a mixed-use zone
of residential, commercial and public spaces. Local experts positively evaluate the ap-
proach to Zorrotzaurre, highlighting the fact that the authorities of the city have acquired
knowledge and confidence in managing such large-scale interventions. In their view, this
has been complemented by positive evaluations by citizens and increased trust in the
authorities’ delivery of the projects, as well as higher expectations. Particularly in the case
of Zorrotzaurre, a significant part of the project is dedicated to residential housing for
private and protected-price controlled use. This element of the project is envisioned by
experts as a way to regain the population lost in the suburbanization processes of the last
30 years, as well as to meet the increased demand in the city from a current perspective.
Apart from those two key central zones, the planning experts also highlight that, as
part of the overall effort to improve the quality of life in the city, a number of interventions
were also implemented in certain neighborhoods in Bilbao, for many of which specific area
plans have been developed. Examples are the rehabilitation measures in the previously
mentioned area of Bilbao La Vieja, as well as the area of Miribilla. Another example is the
regrading and leveling of the former railway trenches, such as the Ametzola area, thus
further densifying and transforming a former railway area into a park and public space.
The effects of investments in mixed-use, improved public infrastructure and pedestrian-
friendly developments have been observed in those areas during field visits by the author.
Experts from different institutions and agencies share the understanding that there was a
need to regain the quality of life in the city in order to make it an attractive place to live;
however, this was not an easy task, due to the constant tension between the considerations
of economic feasibility in terms of investments and their effects on the quality of life.Sustainability 2021, 13, 11045 11 of 23
3.2. Leipzig
3.2.1. Planning System Characteristics
The German planning system is robustly structured and has a clear, albeit complex,
distribution of responsibilities [51]. The federal states have a certain level of autonomous
decision-making but there is also significant dependence on the federal government—this
was especially valid in the eastern federal states, following the reunification. Thus, the
main levels of the planning system that shape the planning and policy efforts in Leipzig,
as of the year 2000, are the German federal government, the State of Saxony, the regional
planning authority of Western Saxony, and the city of Leipzig itself. The various policy
and planning efforts originate, are coordinated by, or involve various institutional actors
across these levels of the planning system and were the focus of the empirical work for this
case study.
3.2.2. Leipzig’s Urban Shrinkage: Housing and Spatial Crises and Attempts at Control
The main frames of the urban shrinkage processes in Leipzig are related to the un-
satisfactory characteristics of various policy areas, as a result of demographic dynamics.
The interpretation of the phenomenon usually stems from a reference to negative demo-
graphic development (depopulation) that subsequently has implications on other policy
and planning areas, thus creating the need for intervention. Quite often, this frame is
complemented by another one about housing—either concerning vacancy or lower quality.
For instance, the Urban Redevelopment East (Stadtumbau Ost) program, one of the main
federal instruments for investment and urban renewal, effectively considers urban shrink-
age as a demographically driven process of depopulation that creates a critical situation
of housing conditions as well as vacancy, and it is particularly visible in specific areas of
cities. At a state level in Saxony, policy documents reveal a similar frame—irreversible
demographic trends of depopulation having an impact on urban development within the
federal state, as well as the housing market, the economy, infrastructure, and services. At a
regional level, in the West Saxony regional plans, the urban shrinkage processes are framed
as a functional crisis—central cities, such as Leipzig, have a role to play in the supply of
services for specific regions and may be unable to continue performing this function. In
this particular frame, the emphasis is not on the demographic processes, but rather on the
spatial dimension—the expansion of commercial locations or other service areas outside of
the urban cores is framed as being undesired.
The various local plans of Leipzig between the years 2000 and 2015 frame shrinkage
in a number of ways. The major planning efforts in the city in this period are twofold—the
urban development plan (Stadtentwicklungsplan—STEP) circa 2000, and the urban devel-
opment concept (Stadtentwicklungskonzept—SEKO) from 2010. Central topics throughout
the period remain land use and housing vacancy. In the urban plans from between 1999 and
2005 (part of the STEP planning effort), land vacancy is framed as an undesirable spatial
condition with important potential for future commercial development within the city,
due to the favorable location and infrastructure provisioning of the lots. Specific emphasis
is placed on the challenges associated with the private ownership of these vast formerly
industrial sites. Years later, in the next round of plans (SEKO), the land vacancy was still
framed as an unresolved issue, although it was subject to a number of interventions. In
2021, vast unused vacant spaces are still available in the city, as confirmed by observations
in the area of Leipzig-Plagwitz.
The second main frame utilized at a local level concerns housing and the handling of
housing vacancy. The frame in the plans highlights varied development in different parts
of the city, leading to market distortions, further housing vacancy and lower quality of life.
In the earlier plans from 2002, particular emphasis was placed on the indebted housing
companies and the unfavorable effects of housing vacancy on their operations. This risk
is paired with the market challenges for private owners, unable to maintain or offer their
properties on the real estate market. In the plans made after the year 2010, the issue withSustainability 2021, 13, 11045 12 of 23
vacancy remains framed as a challenge but with an emphasis on specific areas in the city,
such as Grünau and Leipziger Osten.
The differentiation of the characteristics of various parts of the city remains in the
frames, related to the economic development of the city as well. In the earlier plans, the
need for economic development is framed as important for the whole city. In the later
plans, when the city’s economic trajectory had already begun to improve, the economic
development is already framed positively but is paired with remaining unemployment
issues only in specific districts. In addition to those differences, social issues, such as
persisting social segregation and social support provisioning, are framed again as problems
in specific districts within the city. Framing those issues as district-specific is also shared
across policy documents at both state and federal levels.
A story of control, remedy and action consistently establishes the link between the
frames illustrated above and the measures that need to be taken. This story can be found
in documents across the various levels of the planning system. On the upper planning
levels, the framing of shrinkage as an irreversible demographic-driven process with a
negative impact on cities leads to the normative leap of the need for integrated concepts
of urban development—a requirement of the Urban Redevelopment East program, in
order to provide funding. The development of those concepts is seen as necessary, due
to the challenging nature of the phenomenon, as well as a chance to approach the urban
dimension of the issue in a holistic way. This normative leap is supported by a somewhat
hidden frame—that of framing the shrinkage crisis as an opportunity. This way, the
measures of the program are seen as a chance to improve living conditions in the specific
areas, as well as to generally contribute to more attractive and livable cities. The above-
illustrated story of control, and the normative leap on the holistic approach, correspond
well to the normative leap pertaining to land vacancy—the lower demand from investors is
seen as a need to explore other ways to manage vacancy, such as temporary uses, proactive
marketing by the city, and the general readiness of the local administration to experiment
with innovative planning instruments. The latter understanding is also shared by planning
experts in the area of Plagwitz. In their view, during the shrinkage period, the vacant land
was so great that openness for experimenting was expected of the administration, given
the readiness of the citizens to attempt such experimentation.
The normative leaps in two categories remain intriguing. The issues with housing,
framed as an impending and critical crisis in the earlier plans, lead to the firm normative
leap of necessary intervention in the housing market through restructuring, reduction
and market segmentation. As illustrated in the housing policy of the city from 2002:
“The negative cycle must be broken by reducing the housing stock [ . . . ] in all market
segments”. Later on, this would lead to the positive framing of a stabilized housing
market in the plans from 2010. Secondly, the framing of social and economic issues,
together with urban and spatial ones, in specific districts of Leipzig, such as Leipziger
Osten, leads to an unclear normative leap on continuing urban development measures
for the area. Despite the various interventions from the city there, the concept plan for
the area from 2013 still highlights ongoing social challenges. The plans, however, appear
to be persistent in demanding urban and spatial measures for clearly articulated social
issues. This perspective creates friction with the view shared by the Saxon Ministry for
regional development, responsible for the coordination of another federal program—the
Socially Integrative City (Soziale Stadt). The ministry also views the same social issues as
district-specific; however, the normative leap associated with this understanding is that
those social issues cannot be resolved solely with urban redevelopment measures, thus
justifying the need for the program itself as a bridge between social and urban measures
for challenging areas.Sustainability 2021, 13, 11045 13 of 23
3.3. Depopulation in The Netherlands and in the Province of Zeeland
3.3.1. Planning System Characteristics
Depopulation is broadly viewed as a regional phenomenon in The Netherlands.
Regions, however, are not specific administrative structures. They are geographic and
statistical subdivisions of the provinces of The Netherlands. The provinces themselves
have a certain level of autonomous governance, with democratically elected institutions.
At the same time, municipalities are more dependent on the government than on the
province, as they receive the majority of their funding from central government trans-
fers [52]. This creates a peculiar setting for approaching the phenomenon of depopulation
in The Netherlands—specific parts of the border areas are losing or are expected to lose
their populations; the towns located in those areas are also affected by those processes but,
with the phenomenon being regional in nature, the issues cannot be approached solely
from an urban level, nor entirely from a provincial level.
In the strict and plan-led structure of the planning system of The Netherlands [51], de-
population is still a fairly exceptional phenomenon at a regional level. The three main levels
of the planning system—national, provincial and municipal—work together to approach
it. The national approach to the question of depopulation classified specific regions as
already depopulating or anticipating depopulation. In this classification, Zeeland’s regions
of Schouwen-Duiveland and Walcheren are classified as anticipating depopulation, while
Zeelandic Flanders is classified as already depopulating. At a provincial level, Zeeland’s
population is expected to stabilize in the short term and gradually decline in the long
term. This approach to depopulation in The Netherlands is a specific case that involves
an anticipatory cross-cutting policy approach from national to provincial and local levels.
The distinction between national and provincial levels is sustained in the presentation of
the results.
3.3.2. Regional Depopulation in The Netherlands and Zeeland: Threat to the Economy
and Livability
One specific aspect of the framing of the phenomenon in The Netherlands is that the
terms “shrinkage” and “depopulation” are used interchangeably. It is possible that this has
implications for the way that depopulation/shrinkage is viewed from a policy perspective.
Depopulation or shrinkage, framed as a demographically driven, inevitable process of
losing population in specific regions, is interpreted as a cross-cutting phenomenon that
has implications for various policy areas. Particular emphasis is placed on the implications
of depopulation for local and regional economies, the provisioning of services (such as
social care and education), housing market dynamics, and, as a consequence of all of
the above, an overall decrease in quality of life in these regions. The understanding that
depopulation dynamics have implications in various policy and planning fields implies
that this change requires a coordinated policy approach. At the same time, there is an
overemphasis on the demographic nature of the phenomenon; thus, population numbers
and structure are the key indicators behind the change. This particular understanding
introduces the various frames utilized to outline why a decrease in population is threatening
to a specific policy field. For instance, from an economic standpoint, depopulation is
framed as affecting the labor market in the depopulating regions. Consequently, the frame
continues, a vulnerable labor market can have negative effects on economic growth. From
the perspective of the provisioning of services, an emphasis is placed on age-specific
services, such as healthcare and education, where demand and quality are framed as being
impacted by the changing population structure of the respective region. The frame utilized
for the housing market outlines the mismatch between supply and demand for housing
as an undesirable development of the market. An additional perspective in this topic is
introduced via the risk of the decreasing quality of housing due to the lower maintenance
of vacant homes, as well as the compromised future condition and preparedness of the
housing units.Sustainability 2021, 13, 11045 14 of 23
The frames of housing vacancy and lower service levels overlap in the frame of de-
creasing livability. This understanding appears to be very noticeable across various policy
documents, as well as from the point of view of national and provincial experts. The under-
standing of livability (a loose translation of the Dutch term, “leefbaarheid”) can be found in
the narratives of both policy documents and expert evaluations. This concept stipulates an
understanding of a specific set of characteristics and services in a living environment that
need to be maintained, in order for it to be considered a pleasant, attractive and desirable
place to live. One of the national experts on depopulation refers to the provision of these
standards on an equal level across the country as being a constitutional right. In this respect,
policy toward the consequences of depopulation needs to be proactive, lest the livability be
compromised by the changing conditions.
At a provincial level in Zeeland, the understanding of depopulation and shrinkage as
one and the same demographic phenomenon is also present. It is framed as a cross-cutting
characteristic of the population structure and dynamic of the province, with implications for
various areas. This understanding is also used to justify the regional policy approach, neces-
sitating cooperation between municipalities as well as across planning system levels. Both
of those frames illustrate a remarkable consistency of understanding of the phenomenon
between the national and provincial levels, as well as consistency in the overall policy
approach. Additionally, the concept of livability remains a central frame in the provincial
understanding of depopulation. The provincial strategies and documents view Zeeland as
a place with very good living conditions that are threatened by depopulation. Interestingly,
the livability frame is expanded beyond the standard reference to good living conditions
and is tied to the economic performance of the province. The economic conditions in the
province are framed as a main contributor to the level of prosperity of its citizens. Hence,
depopulation is also framed as a risk to the economy of the province, from the perspective
of labor market shortages and an unfavorable business climate. The importance of those
economic frames is on a par with the livability perspective in the various policy documents
from the province. The experts’ points of view reveal additional implications for the frames
of livability, the economy and service provisioning. Housing vacancy and low maintenance
are framed as undesirable in the context of neighborhood livability. The provisioning of
services is also framed as challenging, both from an efficiency perspective and from a
financial perspective. For example, the transport services within the province, as well as
the school infrastructure, are currently a challenge due to the decreasing population. The
economic condition is framed as vulnerable from the perspective of labor market shortages
and negative image. The planning experts’ points of view reveal a good level of consistency
in their understanding of the phenomenon and its implications in the province.
The above-illustrated frames consistently justify the normative leaps in the formu-
lation of measures on both national and provincial levels. The emphasis on measures
and their objectives is similar to the one in the frames, addressing most importantly the
economic perspective, the quality of life dimension and the housing market. The economic
objectives of the measures attempt to find ways to avoid or mitigate the labor market mis-
match. One example of such a measure is the close cooperation between local businesses
and educational facilities to plan training programs that may qualify future employees for
local needs. This is complemented by efforts in sustaining or improving the image of the
province of Zeeland as a good place to live and operate businesses. These efforts serve
an objective that is only partially made explicit by policy documents or expert points of
view—the need for and importance of sustaining the existing economic base of the province.
Zeeland is home to several large multinational companies in the chemical industry, has
strong port and energy production infrastructures, and is a popular tourism destination.
Those main economic branches are seen as key to the characteristics of the province; in that
respect, the objectives of the economic measures in the context of shrinkage are oriented
toward eliminating any risks to those industries. The importance of the economy is on
a level playing field with the need to sustain good livability. The objectives in this area
are usually linked to the housing measures. Specific financial and planning instrumentsYou can also read
