Natural Gas Liquids Fundamentals - SEPTEMBER 2021 - cloudfront.net
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Natural Gas Liquids Fundamentals SEPTEMBER 2021
Legal Disclaimer
This presentation includes “forward-looking statements.” Such forward-looking statements are subject
to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond AR’s control. All statements, except
for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activities, events or developments
are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and
Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All forward-looking statements speak only as of
the date of this presentation. Although AR believes that the plans, intentions and expectations
reflected in or suggested by the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there is no assurance that
these plans, intentions or expectations will be achieved. Therefore, actual outcomes and results could
materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements. To the extent a
forward-looking statement contained in this presentation speaks as of a period covered by prior
guidance, the information in this presentation is intended to supersede, and investors should not rely
on, such prior guidance.
AR cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties,
most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond the AR’s control, incident to the
exploration for and development, production, gathering and sale of natural gas, NGLs and oil. These
risks include, but are not limited to, commodity price volatility, inflation, lack of availability of drilling and
production equipment and services, environmental risks, drilling and other operating risks, regulatory
changes, the uncertainty inherent in estimating natural gas and oil reserves and in projecting future
rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, the timing of development expenditures, and the
other risks described under the heading "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in AR’s Annual Report on Form 10-K
for the year ended December 31, 2020.
2
Strong NGL Price Momentum
NGL prices have strengthened as global demand continues to increase while supply flattens.
Storage levels at five year lows provide a bullish set up for winter 2021/2022.
U.S. NGL Market Overview and Outlook
Supply
• U.S. NGL supply has remained flat through 2021, driven by moderated drilling activity across U.S.
Shale Basins
• Lower global refinery utilization results in a decline in NGL supply as a byproduct of refining
• Record setting LPG exports led to U.S. propane inventories below the 5-year average as we enter
winter
Demand
• Resilient domestic and international demand from petrochem and residential/commercial sectors
• New LPG demand continues to come online, including over 500 MBbl/d of new PDH demand
expected in China from 2021 through 2023
• Rising living standards in developing countries, particularly in Asia, create an inelastic demand pull
for LPG and NGL derivative products
Outlook for NGLs
• The impact of a decline in shale oil activity on “associated NGL” production has been even more
pronounced than the impact on associated gas production while global NGL demand increases
• U.S. NGL export capacity expansions tighten Mont Belvieu differentials to premium Brent-linked
international pricing
• Bullish – Robust demand and flat supply has already driven C3+ pricing from an average of
~$21/Bbl in 2020 to over $50/Bbl year-to-date 2021
Sources: February EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, S&P Global Platts estimates and J.P. Morgan Commodities Strategy Team Research. LPG is comprised of NGL components propane and butane.
3
U.S. NGL Production vs. LPG Export
– Reduced drilling & completion activity in the U.S. has flattened NGL supply growth,
while LPG exports increased 17% in 2020
– Supply in 2H 2021 forecast to stay “home” offsetting historically low domestic
inventories
U.S. C2+ NGL Production Forecast (MBbl/d) US Waterborne LPG Exports (MBbl/d)
10,000,000 2,500
1,665 MBbl/d
1,608 MBbl/d
+4%
U.S. C2+ NGL production +17%
forecast to increase 2%
8,000,000 2,000
in 2021
1,372 MBbl/d
6,000,000 1,500
Limited export
growth in 2021,
4,000,000 1,000 supply forecast
to stay “home”
offsetting
historically low
500 inventories
2,000,000
- 0
Source: Platts Analytics data as of 8/31/2021. 4
Propane Market Fundamentals
A repeat of the same weekly withdrawals as last winter would result in the U.S.
ending withdrawal season with only about 12 million barrels in storage,
significantly below 5-year minimum storage level
U.S. Propane Inventories (MMBbls)
120
2021 injection season
projected to end at ~75
100 MMBbls per industry
estimates
80
Million Barrels
2020
60
Repeating winter
2021E
2020-2021 weekly
40 2021
20
2022E
...Results in ending withdrawal
season at only ~12 MMBbls,
0 or just 4 to 6 days of supply
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5-Yr Range 2020 5-Yr Avg 2016-2020 2021 Actual 2021 Forecast 2022 Forecast
Source: EnVantage Inc. and Energy Information Administration (EIA) as of 9/3/21. 5
NGL Price Strength
NGL prices remain elevated on an absolute basis and relative
to WTI due to sufficient export capacity and resilient global demand
AR Monthly Realized C3+ NGL Price
$/Bbl AR C3+ Realized Price ($/Bbl) WTI Price % of WTI 08/30/2021 AR Spot C3+ Price:
$50.80/Bbl
$80 71% of WTI 100%
90%
$70 WTI Price
80%
$60
70%
$50 % of WTI
60%
$40 50%
40%
$30
30%
$20
20%
AR C3+ Price
$10
10%
$0 0%
Source: Bloomberg actuals through August 2021. C3+ NGL pricing based on Antero C3+ NGL component barrel consisting of 56% C3 (propane), 10% isobutane (Ic4), 17% normal butane (Nc4) and 17% natural
gasoline (C5+). 6
Strong NGL Price Recovery
Domestic and international LPG prices have improved on a relative basis to crude
oil, driven by resilient global demand for LPG from petrochemicals and res/comm
C3+ NGL Prices & % of WTI (1) Far East Index (FEI) Propane Prices & % of Brent
($/Bbl) % of WTI MB C3+ NGL ($/Bbl) ($/Bbl) % of Brent FEI Propane ($/Bbl)
FEI Propane Price
$55 C3+ Price as 100% $60 100%
as % of Brent
Historical MB % of WTI
$50 C3+/WTI% 90% 87% 90%
5-year avg: 84%
~62% $50 80%
$45 78% 80%
75% 80%
72%
$40 67%
70% 66% 70%
66% 65% 63% $40 64%
$35
58% 60% 60%
$30
48% 50% $30 50%
C3+ NGL Price FEI Propane Price
$25
40% 40%
$20
$20
30% 30%
$15
20% 20%
$10 $10
$5 10% 10%
$0 0% $0 0%
1Q20A 2Q20A 3Q20A 4Q20A 1Q21A 2Q21A 3Q21E 1Q20A 2Q20A 3Q20A 4Q20A 1Q21A 2Q21A 3Q21E
7
Source: ICEdata Mont Belvieu, Far East Index, WTI and Brent strip pricing as of 8/31/2021.
1) Based on Antero C3+ NGL component barrel consists of 56% C3 (propane), 10% isobutane (Ic4), 17% normal butane (Nc4) and 17% natural gasoline (C5+).
The Impact of the U.S. Shale Revolution
The Shale Revolution dramatically changed the NGL landscape, turning the U.S. into
a net exporter after decades of importing NGL products
U.S. NGL Production (MBbl/d) (1) U.S. NGL Exports / (Imports) (MBbl/d) (2)
6,000 2,500
5,000 2,000
Driven primarily by
shale oil development
with high oil prices
4,000 1,500
MBbl/d
MBbl/d
3,000 1,000
Pentane Net importer of NGLs
2,000 500
IsoButane
Butane
1,000 -
Propane
Ethane(1)
0 (500)
1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020
1) Includes recovered ethane volumes and natural gasoline (C5).2021 data through June.
2) 2021 data through June.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 1984-2020. NGL exports/imports includes ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane and natural gasoline.
8LPG Exports
US exports surpassed the entire Middle East region combined starting in 2019
LPG Exports: US versus Middle East
1800 US is the incremental
supplier for growing world
1600 demand.
1400
1200
1000
800
Supply from Middle East nations flat,
OPEC policies limit growth potential
600
400
200
0
US Qatar UAE Saudi Arabia Kuwait Iran
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
Source: Platts.
Notes: Propane and Butane exports only based on cFlow ship tracking data. US Exports do not include exports via land to Canada and Mexico. 2021 YTD through September 2, 2021. 9U.S. NGL Demand Growth
NGL demand growth driven primarily by exports of LPG (propane/butane)
U.S. C3+ Demand by Sector (MMBbl/d) Estimated U.S. C3+ Demand – 2024
4.5
4.0
3.5
Petrochemical
3.0 15%
MMBbl/d
2.5 Exports 2019-2024 Growth: +21% Exports Refining/
Blending
2.0
53% 19%
1.5
Refining/Blending 2019-2024 Growth: +3%
1.0 Residential/
Residential/Commercial 2019-2024 Growth: +8% Commercial
0.5 13%
Petrochemicals 2019-2024 Growth: +3%
0.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: S&P Global Platts as of 8/31/2021 10LPG Export Capacity: Unconstrained Outlook
High utilization rates prompted next round of buildout of LPG propane/ butane
export capacity, resulting in unconstrained exports beginning in 2020 and positive
outlook for Mont Belvieu pricing relative to international pricing
U.S. Gulf Coast LPG Exports vs. Capacity (MBbl/d)
PADD 3 Existing Capacity Targa Galena Park ET Nederland LPG Export Forecast
2,000
Targa
1,800 Galena Park- ET Nederland - 300 MBbl/d
150 MBbl/d
1,600
1,400
1,200
MBbl/d
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24
Source: S&P Global Platts as of 8/31/2021
11Northeast NGL Producers are Advantaged
Producer Disadvantaged: Producer Advantaged & Unconstrained:
E&Ps in Permian, Rockies, Mid-Con & Bakken Antero Resources in Appalachia
AR is the largest C3+ producer
with the most international
exposure in Appalachia
Mariner East Anchor shipper on ME2
FROM ROCKIES Conway Who Captures the Arb at Marcus Hook?
Answer: AR and other Appalachian E&P’s
• Direct sales to most attractive international
(ARA & FEI) & domestic markets
• Fixed terminal rates
• Local fractionation & marketing to sell purity
products in-basin for local demand
Results in “Mont Belvieu plus” pricing
netbacks captured “at the dock” by AR
Mont
Belvieu Who Captures the Arb at the Gulf Coast?
Answer: Midstream & LPG off-takers (not E&P’s)
• No direct E&P access to international markets (i.e.
producers only receive Mont Belvieu linked pricing)
• No local fractionation to sell marketable purity
products in-basin
Results in “Mont Belvieu Minus” pricing
“before the dock”
12C3+ NGLs: Northeast Market Dynamics and Supply
Antero’s C3+ blended differential to Mont Belvieu has improved with the Mariner
East 2 export takeaway and ability to access international markets
Northeast C3+ NGL Supply Northeast C3+ NGL Takeaway
500
Pentanes Midwest/
400 Conway
IsoButane
MBbl/d
300 Cornerstone Mariner East 1
Normal Butane
70 MBbl/d
200
Export
100 Propane Markets
0 Mariner East 2
~165 MBbl/d to 275 MBbl/d
~210 MBbl/d of Northeast C3+ demand vs.
U.S. Gulf Mariner East 2, placed in
~450 MBbl/d of Northeast supply in 2020 Coast service at YE 2018, provides
- Resulted in 47% of production consumed locally additional baseload demand
- Remainder moved primarily by rail and exported and access to international
LPG markets
Differentials to Mont Belvieu
tightened in 2019 as ~165+ MBbl/d of
LPG exported via Mariner East 2
Source: S&P Global Platts as of 8/31/2021. 13LPG: Northeast Supply & Demand
Northeast LPG markets became oversupplied in 2015 and were forced to transport
via rail, which was relieved by Mariner East 2 in 2019
Northeast LPG NGL Supply vs. Demand & Takeaway Capacity (Excluding Rail)
Long Local Demand and Short Local Demand & ME2 Realized
Pipeline Capacity Pipeline Capacity Effect =
500 = Tight Differentials = Wide Differentials +$4.00/bbl
~$(2.00)/Bbl vs. Mont ~$(6.00)/Bbl vs. Mont Differential
450 Improvement
Belvieu Belvieu
400
350 Rail fills short
term gaps
300
MBbl/d
250
Mariner East System
200
150
100
Regional Demand
50
0
Source: S&P Global Platts, Antero Company Estimates.
14Ethane: Northeast Market Dynamics & Supply
Antero’s ethane has a natural gas value pricing floor; pricing improvements from
additional petrochemical and takeaway demand is all “Upside”
~260 MBbl/d of ethane current rejected in Northeast Ethane Takeaway and Capacities
Northeast (~48% of potentially recoverable ethane)
Antero is an anchor supplier to Shell’s Shell Cracker
cracker expected in-service in 2022 Mariner West 105 MBbl/d (2022)
50 MBbl/d
Utopia East Mariner East
Antero ethane firm sales contracts ~50% 50 MBbl/d 70 MBbl/d
gas-linked and ~50% Mont Belvieu-linked.
Northeast Ethane Supply (MBbl/d) Mariner East 2X:
TBD MBbl/d 2021
700 Full Ethane Recovery
600 ME2X
Actual Ethane Recovery
500 Shell Cracker
400 Utopia
MBbl/d
300 Mariner East
200
Mariner West
100
ATEX
0
-100
Source: S&P Global Platts
15Ethane: Export Market Pulls Barrels Overseas
The ethane market continues to develop and creates opportunities for ethane
sales outside of the domestic cracker pool
Ethane Export Suppliers and Customers
Europe
Borealis
Marcus INEOS
U.S. Gulf Hook ExxonMobil
Coast Sabic
South Asia
Reliance
Mexico Southeast
Pemex Asia
FEI
SP Chem
Nanshan
Satellite
South America
Braskem
US Terminals Export ISD
Capacity
(MBbl/d)
New Build crackers in ETP Marcus Hook 70 2016
Europe, Asia looking to EPD Morgan’s Point 200 2016
U.S. C2 for supply ETP/Satellite 175 2021
Total 445
Source: S&P Global Platts , Company Reports 16Summary
Historically low NGL inventory, disciplined producer activity, and “inelastic”
international LPG demand provide bullish backdrop for NGL prices
Moderate U.S. C3+ NGL production growth expected in
2021 as producers remain disciplined
Propane days of supply at 5-year lows could result in
an undersupplied U.S. market in 2021 and 2022
Inelastic global NGL demand growth driven by
improvements in living standards and subsidies
U.S. NGL differentials have tightened vs. global prices as
exports provide uplift with premium Brent-linked pricing
Price outlook for U.S. LPG exports is strong as global
demand grows and export supply growth from the middle
east and the U.S. subsides
Appalachian producers are geographically advantaged vs.
U.S. Gulf Coast producers – captures the international
pricing uplift by selling at the export dock (Marcus Hook) 17Appendix
Focus on Liquids Rich Drilling
Antero currently recovers only 30% of the ethane in its rich gas stream while
rejecting 70% of the ethane, sending it to pipeline sales in the natural gas stream
Antero NGL Barrel Composition (2021 Guidance)
Remaining 70% of ethane
Natural Gas 1100 BTU Gas stays in natural gas stream
Processing and enhances gas BTU Ethane (C2)
~128,000 Bbl/d of C2 50,000 Bbl/d
165,000 Bbl/d C2+ NGLs
1250 BTU Rich Gas
AR recovers ~30% of ethane ~115,000 Bbl/d C3+ NGLs
in its rich gas stream
Ethane
~50,000 Bbl/d
30% of Barrel
Propane (C3) 56%
Liquids
Rich
Production C3+ NGLs
~115,000 Bbl/d
70% of Barrel Normal Butane (C4) 17%
IsoButane (iC4) 10%
Pentanes (C5+) 17%
AR’s C2+ NGL Barrel
Composition AR’s C3+ NGL Barrel
Composition
19
Note: Based on Antero 2021 production guidance. Antero C3+ NGL component barrel consists of 56% C3 (propane), 10% isobutane (Ic4),
17% normal butane (Nc4) and 17% natural gasoline (C5+).Natural Gas Liquids Primer
Natural Gas Liquids “NGLs” are contained in the rich natural gas stream, but after
processing, condense into liquid form for storage, shipping and consumption
Purity Products
Y-Grade De- Ethane
Ethane*
ethanization
Wellhead
Gas Propane*
Processing C3+ Raw
NGLs Butane*
Rich Gas
(>1100 Btu) Fractionation Isobutane
Pentane
Dry Gas
LNG and
Pipeline Export
Markets
Natural Gas Domestic Export
Dry Gas
Dry Gas Pipeline Consumption Markets
(China PDH Plant Outlook
21Natural Gas Liquids Primer
NGLs play an essential role in the domestic and international industrial, residential,
commercial and transportation industries
Gas Linked Pricing Crude Linked Pricing
Iso-
Methane Ethane Propane Butane Butane Pentane
Natural Gas C2 C3 C4 IC4 C5
Industrial
Primary Chemical Residential Industrial
All Industrial Transportation
Sectors Industrial Commercial, Transportation
Chemical
Heating,
Ethylene Winter Alkylate feed
Primary Crop drying, Gasoline blend
Power Production Gasoline to produce
Uses Commercial, and diluent
(For plastics) Blending gasoline
Propylene
Higher Heating Value
1000 Btu 4000 Btu
22Antero’s Ethane Export
• Antero’s 11,500 Bpd C2 sales contract with Borealis commenced on November 1, 2018
• Expect to load ~1 ship per month, bound for Borealis’ steam cracker in Stenungsund,
Sweden, for duration of 10-year contract
23Weekly International LPG Pricing Update
SEPTEMBER 7, 2021
This material is intended for benchmark pricing estimates only and does not reflect Antero actual contracted prices
24Marcus Hook to Europe Arbitrage
LPG Arbitrage Futures to Europe (ARA)
Export Arbitrage to Northwest Europe - Propane $/gallon Export Arbitrage to Northwest Europe - Butane $/gallon
Date MB C3 ARA C3 Spread Shipping Marcus Hook Netback Date MB C4 ARA C4 Spread Shipping Marcus Hook Netback
Sep-21 1.187 1.278 0.091 0.072 MB + 0.020 Sep-21 1.469 1.485 0.017 0.082 MB + -0.066
Oct-21 1.185 1.281 0.096 0.075 MB + 0.021 Oct-21 1.383 1.488 0.106 0.086 MB + 0.020
Nov-21 1.178 1.273 0.095 0.077 MB + 0.018 Nov-21 1.363 1.474 0.111 0.089 MB + 0.022
Dec-21 1.163 1.262 0.099 0.080 MB + 0.019 Dec-21 1.336 1.457 0.121 0.092 MB + 0.029
Jan-22 1.144 1.242 0.099 0.078 MB + 0.021 Jan-22 1.300 1.432 0.132 0.090 MB + 0.042
Feb-22 1.111 1.208 0.097 0.077 MB + 0.019 Feb-22 1.258 1.391 0.133 0.089 MB + 0.045
Bal '21 1.178 1.273 0.095 0.076 MB + 0.020 Bal '21 1.388 1.476 0.089 0.087 MB + 0.001
Cal '22 0.904 1.036 0.132 0.077 MB + 0.055 Cal '22 1.052 1.226 0.174 0.088 MB + 0.086
Cal '23 0.751 0.903 0.152 0.072 MB + 0.080 Cal '23 Not Available
$1.60 $0.20
$1.40 $0.20
$1.40
$1.20 $0.15
$0.15 $1.20
Netback: MB + $/gal
Index Prices ($/gal)
Netback: MB + $/gal
Index Prices ($/gal)
$1.00 $0.10
$1.00
$0.80 $0.10
$0.80 $0.05
$0.60 $0.05 $0.60
$0.00
$0.40 $0.40
$0.00 ($0.05)
$0.20 $0.20
$0.00 ($0.05) $0.00 ($0.10)
MB C3 Shipping ARA C3 Marcus Hook Netback MB C4 Shipping ARA C4 Marcus Hook Netback
Sources: ICE for product pricing, Antero Internal Estimates for market shipping rates. Please see appendix for more information.
25Marcus Hook to Asia Arbitrage
LPG Arbitrage Futures to Asia (FEI)
Export Arbitrage to Far East Asia - Propane $/gallon Export Arbitrage to Far East Asia - Butane $/gallon
Date MB C3 FEI C3 Spread Shipping Marcus Hook Netback Date MB C4 FEI C4 Spread Shipping Marcus Hook Netback
Sep-21 1.187 1.387 0.200 0.174 MB + 0.027 Sep-21 1.469 1.604 0.135 0.200 MB + -0.064
Oct-21 1.185 1.396 0.211 0.183 MB + 0.028 Oct-21 1.383 1.617 0.235 0.211 MB + 0.024
Nov-21 1.178 1.394 0.216 0.191 MB + 0.025 Nov-21 1.363 1.611 0.249 0.220 MB + 0.029
Dec-21 1.163 1.382 0.219 0.198 MB + 0.021 Dec-21 1.336 1.597 0.261 0.228 MB + 0.033
Jan-22 1.144 1.359 0.215 0.194 MB + 0.022 Jan-22 1.300 1.567 0.267 0.223 MB + 0.044
Feb-22 1.111 1.323 0.212 0.191 MB + 0.021 Feb-22 1.258 1.541 0.283 0.220 MB + 0.063
Bal '21 1.178 1.390 0.212 0.187 MB + 0.025 Bal '21 1.388 1.607 0.220 0.215 MB + 0.005
Cal '22 0.904 1.164 0.260 0.190 MB + 0.070 Cal '22 1.052 1.434 0.381 0.218 MB + 0.163
Cal '23 Not Available Cal '23 Not Available
$1.80 $0.20 $1.80 $0.20
$1.60 $1.60
$0.15 $1.40 $0.15
$1.40
Netback: MB + $/gal
Netback: MB + $/gal
Index Prices ($/gal)
Index Prices ($/gal)
$1.20 $1.20
$0.10 $0.10
$1.00 $1.00
$0.80 $0.80
$0.05 $0.05
$0.60 $0.60
$0.40 $0.00 $0.40 $0.00
$0.20 $0.20
$0.00 ($0.05) $0.00 ($0.05)
MB C3 Shipping FEI C3 Marcus Hook Netback MB C4 Shipping FEI C4 Marcus Hook Netback
Sources: ICE for product pricing, Antero Internal Estimates for market shipping rates. Please see appendix for more information.
26Antero’s C3+ NGL Composite Barrels
Weekly Benchmark Index Pricing as of 9/7/21 – Net of Shipping (1)
This data reflects benchmark pricing estimates and does not directly reflect Antero’s realized prices or hedges
Assumes 2021 AR C3+ NGL
Volumes of 115,000 Bbl/d (5) Antero Estimated International Sales
100% 38.5 Mb/d C3, 16.5 Mb/d C4
(Assumes 50% ARA, 50% FEI)
90% • 50% Europe (ARA) Net of Shipping (1)
Bbl/d
Propane4 $1.21/gal 19,250
80% Propane (C3)
Butane $1.40/gal 8,250
56% • 50% Asia (FEI) Net of Shipping (1) Weekly Indicated
70%
Weighted Average
~64 MBbl/d Propane $1.21/gal 19,250
Price (2):
60% Butane $1.40/gal 8,250
55,000
48% International
Global Weighted C3/C4 Average Price: $53.24/Bbl
50% 52% Domestic $53.56/Bbl
40% Normal Butane (C4)
17% Antero Estimated Domestic Sales
100% Mont Belvieu Linked
30% ~20 MBbl/d
IsoButane (iC4) • Mont Belvieu Non-Tet
Bbl/d
20% 10% ~11 MBbl/d
Propane $1.19/gal 25,900
Pentanes (C5+) N. Butane $1.47/gal 3,050
10%
IsoButane $1.40/gal 11,500
17% ~20 MBbl/d
Pentanes $1.62/gal 19,550
0%
AR’s C3+ NGL Barrel Composition Total 60,000
Domestic Weighted Average Price: $53.86/Bbl (4)
1) Shipping rates assumed are detailed on pages 2 and 3. Please see appendix for more information.
2) Weighted average assumes 55 MBbl/d international and 60 MBbl/d domestic.
3) Excludes Antero Hedges.
27
4) Assumes midpoint of Antero guidance for domestic price discount to Mont Belvieu of $0.10/gal.
5) Volumes are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect guidance.Historical C3+ NGL Pricing
QTD C3+ NGL Price reflects weekly average benchmark pricing estimates for Antero NGL barrel and estimated annual allocation of barrels to domestic
vs. export. Antero’s realized prices will differ somewhat due to timing differences and monthly allocation differences.
NGL hedges are excluded from this analysis.
Antero’s Historical Reported C3+ NGL Price
1Q17 $29.52 1Q18 $36.38 1Q19 $31.63 1Q20 $21.31 1Q21 $40.72
2Q17 $24.14 2Q18 $34.81 2Q19 $28.57 2Q20 $15.55 2Q21 $40.32
3Q17 $28.92 3Q18 $38.41 3Q19 $22.53 3Q20 $22.50 3QTD (1) $50.88
4Q17 $39.16 4Q18 $30.92 4Q19 $29.61 4Q20 $27.64 4Q21 -
2017 $30.48 2018 $34.76 2019 $27.75 2020 $21.68 2021(1) $43.04
Current(1) $53.56
C3+ NGL Price Sensitivity (2)
+/- $5 per
Bbls/d(3) Days MMBbls Bbl Change Revenue Impact ($MM)
115,000 x 365 = 41.975 x $5 = $210
1) QTD and 2021 calculation reflects latest average of Weekly Indicated Weighted Average Price published on page 4 each week. Current price as stated on page 4.
2) Excludes any Antero NGL hedges
3) Volumes are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect guidance. 28Appendix and Supporting Information
This material is intended for benchmark pricing estimates only and does not reflect Antero actual contracted prices
Key Terms and Definitions:
• ARA – “Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp.” ARA is a port and refining area in the Belgian-Dutch region of Europe.
• CIF - “Cost, Insurance, Freight.” CIF means that the seller delivers the goods on board the vessel or procures the goods already so
delivered. Note that the CIF ARA LPG prices represent a delivered cargo into Europe.
• FEI – “Far East Index.” The Argus Far East Index is the average of the Argus Japan CFR propane quotation and the Argus South China
CFR propane quotation. Note that the FEI LPG prices represent a delivered cargo into Asia
• CFR - “Cost and Freight.” CFR means that the seller delivers the goods on board the vessel or procures the goods already so delivered.
• Baltic Index - The Baltic LPG Index is a shipping cost estimate based on a voyage from Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia to Chiba, Japan round
trip, laden (full) on the outbound journey and ballast (empty) on the return trip, carrying a fully refrigerated cargo of 44,000 MT (+/-
5%) propane, butane, or a mixture. The index is published by the Baltic Exchange.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) provides the benchmark pricing Information used in this presentation. For more information, visit
https://www.theice.com/energy/natural-gas-liquids
ICE DEFINITION
ANTERO LABEL HUB PRODUCT
ARA C3 CIF ARA Propane Argus Futures
ARA C4 CIF ARA Butane Argus Futures
FEI C3 Far East Propane Argus Futures
FEI C4 Far East Butane Argus Futures
MB C3 MT.B-ENT Propane OPIS Futures
MB C4 MT.B-ENT Normal Butane OPIS Futures
Relevant Conversions:
• Propane = 521 gallons per metric ton
• Butane = 453 gallons per metric ton
Antero Internal Shipping Estimates are derived by Antero using several sources, including Baltic LPG Index Futures and broker estimates.
• Rates are adjusted based on travel time from Marcus Hook, PA to Northwest Europe (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp Region) and
Marcus Hook, PA to Asia (Chiba, Japan).
• Antero’s actual shipping rates may differ from these estimates.
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