New Year's Briefing 2018 - IHS Markit
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2018
New Year’s Briefing
6-7 February 2018 | Frankfurt, Germany
Christian Müller, Principal Analyst & Manager
0049 (69) 20973 328, Christian.mueller@ihsmarkit.com
© 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Factors Affecting Our Perception of EV and Battery Technology
Performance
Price
Durability Cost
Production
Safety
Capacity
Recharging
Driving Range
Infrastructure
Raw
Energy
Material
Density
Availability
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 2
Setting the scene - battery pack breakdown
Prismatic Cylindrical Pouch
Battery cell
Battery module Battery pack
Source: CATL– photo taken by IHS Markit at IAA
2017, Frankfurt, Germany, September 2017
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 3
Lithium based battery technology continues to offer the highest potential
First commercialization
in electrification Name Voltage (V) Energy (Wh/kg) Cycle life
Li-solid state
1891 Lead acid 2.0 50 500
1982 Ni-MH 1.2 100 1,000
1998
Expectation
Li-ion 3.6 200 2,000
2022? Li-solid state 4.8 400 +10,000
All figures are simplified to easily compare technologies
Ni-MH Lead acid
Li-sulfur
Li-air
Li-ion
Mg-ion
Na-air
Source: IHS Markit
Time
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 4
Li-ion Battery System Technology Roadmap
More energy and power, and safer
2017 2020 2025
Rich Nickel
Cathode LFP, LMO, NMC, NCA
(High voltage spinell)
Sulfur, Air
Anode Carbon, Graphite Silicon Lithium-metal, CNT
Electrolyte Liquid, Polymer Solid state
Separator Polymer mebranes None
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 5
Electrode Material
NMC seems to offer the most accepted compromise between all requirements
Cell Leading Characteristics of electrode materials
Acronym Material
voltage supplier
NCA Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum 3.65 V Tesla Low cost
oxide Panasonic
NMC Lithium Nickel Manganese 3.7 V LG
Cobalt oxide Samsung
LFP Lithium Iron Phosphate 3.2-3.3 V CATL Specific energy
Life
BYD (kWh/kg)
Lishen
LTO Lithium Titanate Oxide 2.4 V Toshiba
LMO Lithium Manganese Oxide 4V AESC
(original li-ion technology)
Charge /
• Except LTO, these are cathode materials. The anode is usually discharge rate
Safety
graphite.
• NCA is used only by Tesla, on license from Panasonic
• LTO and LMO are loosing significance in the automotive market NCA NMC LFP LMO LTO
• LCO is the original Lithium Ion technology but no longer used
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 6
Major Raw Material use for selected models
Tons of Material used per year
Tesla Model S
Cathode Type: NCA
Nickel Lithium Cobalt Manganese Aluminium
17,5 Kg 3,2 Kg 4,3 Kg 0,5 Kg 0,5 Kg
Chevrolet Bolt
Cathode Type: NMC
Nickel Lithium Cobalt Manganese Aluminium
7,5 Kg 2,5 Kg 7,5 Kg 6,5 Kg 0 Kg
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 7
Major Raw Material Deposits for Batteries
Which countries are OEMs exposing themselves to?
Lithium
Cobalt
Nickel
Manganese
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 8Securing raw material supplies
Will Material Hedging Solve this Problem?
“Manufacturers such as electric vehicle “The procurement project is one of the
makers should be concerned that the supply largest in the history of the automotive
of one of the key mineral components, or the industry, with a total order volume of over 50
processing and refining infrastructure, could billion euros,” it said in a statement. “That will
become too centralised in a single country. meet the Group’s needs for the first wave of
Without diverse source options, the e-mobility.”
possibility of supply restriction becomes Volkswagen Statement
more likely.”
Ben McLellan, senior research fellow at Kyoto University
“A secure and sustainable
supply of raw materials for the “They want a fixed price, which won’t work for
Li-ion [lithium ion] battery will people who need security and they want to
Tesla Motors and BMW is also said be the key factor to become e- reserve the right to not take metal they don’t
to be looking for supplies of cobalt, mobility market leader,” need,” another cobalt source said. “They want
according to people in the market, Volkswagen Statement producers to take all the risks ... they want an
though no formal tenders have been
option at low prices, for long maturities at zero
issued.
cost.”
Cobalt Trader
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 9Cell Technology options
Pouch cells gaining ground thanks to Korean manufacturers
Cylindrical Prismatic Pouch
Electrodes rolled/winded flat winded stacked
Packaging stainless steel can aluminium (for automotive) casing, flexible aluminium+plastic foil (may swell
welded shut. during charge/discharge).
Pros & Cons + self-supporting mechanical structure + energy density, specific energy + high specific energy (kWh/kg)
- lower energy density (kWh/cm³) - thermal management + cost
- cost - needs a rigid support from the module.
Leading auto Tesla & Panasonic BYD, Samsung SDI, LG
suppliers SK Innovation
CATL
Often used for NCA (since Panasonic is the main manufacturer) high voltage LFP and low voltage Lithium polymer with solid electrolyte
all chemistries
Form factor standardized (somehwat) no standard, but usually fixed to a few sizes for a given no standard, usually custom size
• 18650: Ø18x65 mm, most widespread: laptops, ebikes, supplier
previously used Tesla
• 26650: often used for LFP
• 2170(0): Ø21x70 mm, new Tesla format
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 10Battery Demand by Cell Type
Capacity demand by cell type Vehicle production volume
Million units (pack)
GWh
300 30
250 25
200 20
150 15
100 10
50 5
0 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Unknown Cylinder Pouch Prismatic Unknown Cylinder Pouch Prismatic
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 11Profiles of major battery manufacturers
A diverse supply base
60
GWh 50
2016 2020
40
30
20
10
0
Manufacturer Tesla Panasonic LG Chem Samsung SDI CATL Lishen Guoxan BYD OptimumNano
High Tech
Cells NCA LMO NCM NCM LFP and NCM LFP LFP & NMC LFP LFP
cylindrical cylindrical pouch prismatic prismatic cylindrical & prismatic & cylindrical
prismatic pouch
Core EV consumer and diversified diversified batteries batteries electrical EV batteries
business pro appliances equipment
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 12Mapping the Announced Major Battery Cell Manufacturing Locations
GWh China
400
334 Others
300
Tianjin Lishen
200
Guoxuan
100 68
0 Optimum
Nano
2016 2020
GWh North America GWh Europe GWh Japan, Korea
60 60 60 54
Others
38 Others
40 40 Samsung SDI 40
Others Samsung SDI
30
LG Chemical 23 LG Chemical
LG Chemical
20 Panasonic
20 SK Innovation 20
AESC
1 Terra E
0 Panasonic
0 0 Northvolt 0
2016 2020 2016 2020 2016 2020
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 13Battery supply chain in automotive industry
Cell Cell Module Pack Electric Vehicle OEM
supplier
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles,
Geely, Guangzhou
Volkswagen, Renault, BMW, Tesla,
General Motors, Daimler, Hyundai (Browns battery, Accumotive, Mobis)
Lifan, (Nissan)
PEVE, AESC, LEJ, BEJ, Pride Power,
HLGP, BESK, Shanghai Jiexin, Wuhu Qida
Samsung SDI, SK Innovation, LG Chemical, Tianjin Lishen, Optimumnano,
Farasis, Guoxuan, Sinopoly, Electrovaya, Chuangyuan
Do-Fluoride, Wanxiang A123/Fisker, BYD
Source: IHS Markit Industry Disruptors: Dyson, Hyperdrive
Innovation, Webasto
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 14Key Take Aways For Suppliers
• Carmakers are still very much in experimental
mode (large scale but experimental) about batteries
and EVs. Evolution of automotive battery landscape
• Battery pack assembly done more in house NimH Li+ LiS?
• Raw material availability concentrated around few now
difficult locations
Japan S. Korea
• Battery cell production capacity increase needed to
sustain projected growth rates China
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 15Presentation Name / Month 2017
IHS Markit Customer Care
CustomerCare@ihsmarkit.com
Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273)
Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300
Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600
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