Now for the Long Term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
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Now for the Long Term
The Report of the
Oxford Martin Commission
for Future Generations
1
2
Now for the Long Term
The Report of the
Oxford Martin Commission
for Future Generations
October 2013
Members of the Commission:
Chair: Pascal Lamy, former Director-General, Luiz Felipe Lampreia, former Minister of Peter Piot (Baron Piot), Director, London
World Trade Organization Foreign Affairs, Brazil School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; former
Executive Director, UNAIDS
Michelle Bachelet, former President of Chile; Liu He, Minister, Office of the Central Leading
former Executive Director, UN Women Group on Financial and Economic Affairs, Martin Rees (Lord Rees of Ludlow), former
People’s Republic of China President, The Royal Society; Fellow of Trinity
Lionel Barber, Editor, The Financial Times College, University of Cambridge
Kishore Mahbubani, Dean and Professor in the
Roland Berger, Chairman, Roland Berger Practice of Public Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate and Thomas W.
Strategy Consultants of Public Policy, National University of Singapore Lamont University Professor, and Professor of
Economics and Philosophy, Harvard University
Ian Goldin, Director, Oxford Martin School; Trevor Manuel, Minister and Chair of the
Professor of Globalisation and Development, National Planning Commission, South Africa Nicholas Stern (Lord Stern of Brentford),
University of Oxford (Vice-Chair) President, The British Academy; IG Patel Professor
Julia Marton-Lefèvre, Director-General, of Economics, London School of Economics
Arianna Huffington, President and Editor-in- International Union for Conservation of
Chief, Huffington Post Media Group Nature (IUCN) Jean-Claude Trichet, former President,
European Central Bank
Mo Ibrahim, Chair of the Board, Nandan Nilekani, Chairman, Unique Identification
Mo Ibrahim Foundation Authority of India; former CEO, Infosys
Chris Patten (Lord Patten of Barnes), Chancellor,
University of Oxford; Chairman, BBC Trust
The Commissioners are acting in their personal capacity. They were selected because of their breadth and depth of expertise, their geographical reach, and
their extensive leadership experience gathered over many years in large organisations, multilateral negotiations and complex national and global institutions.
This report represents the collective views of the Commission, and does not necessarily represent the individual opinions of any single Commissioner or
the organisations to which they are affiliated.
The Oxford Martin School Commission Secretariat was led by Natalie Day (Head of Policy), with Anushya Devendra (Communications and Policy Officer)
and Dr Travers McLeod (Policy Adviser). This report was published by the Oxford Martin School.
5 Abbreviations
6 Executive Summary
8 Introduction
9 Governing for the future
10 One world; many cultures, perspectives and identities
11 About this report
12 Part A: Possible Futures
13 Megatrends
14 Demographics
15 Mobility
16 Society
17 Geopolitics
18 Sustainability
20 Health
22 Technology
24 Challenges
24 Society
26 Resources
29 Health
31 Geopolitics
33 Governance
36 Part B: Responsible Futures
37 Looking Back to Look Forward
37 Lessons from Previous Successes
41 Lessons from Failure
44 Shaping Factors: What Makes Change so Hard?
44 1: Institutions
45 2: Time
48 3: Political Engagement and Public Trust
52 4: Growing Complexity
53 5: Cultural Biases
56 Part C: Practical Futures:
Principles and Recommendations
57 1: Creative Coalitions
57 C20-C30-C40
57 CyberEx
58 Fit Cities
58 2: Innovative, Open and Reinvigorated Institutions
58 Decades, not Days
58 Fit for Purpose
59 Open up Politics
59 Make the Numbers Count
60 Transparent Taxation
60 3: Revalue the Future
60 Focus Business on the Long Term
61 Discounting
61 Invest in People
62 Measure Long-term Impact
62 4: Invest in Younger Generations
62 Attack Poverty at its Source
63 A Future for Youth
63 5: Establish a Common Platform of Understanding
63 Build Shared Global Values
65 What Next?
66 Endnotes
84 Acknowledgements
4
Abbreviations
AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency G20 Group of Twenty NPCs National Planning
Syndrome G30 Group of Thirty Consultative Commissions
ASEAN Association of Southeast Group on International OECD Organisation for Economic
Asian Nations Economic and Monetary Affairs Co-operation and
BEPS Base Erosion and Profit GATT General Agreement on Tariffs Development
Shifting and Trade OGP Open Government
C40 Cities Climate Leadership GAVI Global Alliance for Vaccines Partnership
Group and Immunisations R&D Research and Development
CDOs Collateralised Debt GDP Gross Domestic Product RGI Resource Governance Index
Obligations HIV Human Immunodeficiency SARS Severe Acute Respiratory
CEO Chief Executive Officer Virus Syndrome
CERN European Organization for IFPRI International Food Policy SMP Single Market Programme
Nuclear Research Research Institute (Europe)
CFC Chlorofluorocarbon IFRS International Financial TB Tuberculosis
CGIAR Consultative Group for Reporting Standards TRIPS Trade-Related Aspects of
International Agricultural IHR International Health Intellectual Property Rights
Research Regulations UDHR Universal Declaration of
CO2 Carbon Dioxide IIAG Ibrahim Index of African Human Rights
CPI Corruption Perceptions Index Governance UN United Nations
CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific ILO International Labour UNDP United Nations Development
and Industrial Research Organization Programme
Organisation IMF International Monetary Fund UNEP United Nations Environment
DNA Deoxyribonucleic Acid IP Intellectual Property Programme
ECOSOC Economic and Social Council IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on UNESCO United Nations Educational
(United Nations) Climate Change Scientific and Cultural
FAO Food and Agricultural IUCN International Union for Organization
Organization Conservation of Nature UNFCCC United Nations Framework
FCF Committee for the Future LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas Convention on Climate
(Finland) MDGs Millennium Development Change
FCTC Framework Convention on Goals UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund
Tobacco Control NCDs Non-Communicable Diseases WGIs Worldwide Governance
FDI Foreign Direct Investment NGOs Non-Governmental Indicators
FSB Financial Stability Board Organisations WHO World Health Organization
G7 Group of Seven NHS National Health Service WIPO World Intellectual Property
G8 Group of Eight (United Kingdom) Organization
WTO World Trade Organization
5
Executive Summary
As the world slowly emerges from the Part A, Possible Futures, identifies a number In Part B, Responsible Futures, the Commission
devastating Financial Crisis, it is time to reflect of interacting megatrends, grouped under examines historical drivers of transformative
on the lessons of this turbulent period and seven headings: demographics (large, ageing change, such as the existence of crisis, shared
think afresh about how to prevent future populations); mobility (urbanisation and a interests, leadership, inclusion, institutions and
crises. The Oxford Martin Commission for growing middle class); society (inequality and networks, partnerships, as well as goals and
Future Generations focuses on the increasing unemployment); geopolitics (power transitions); prizes. From campaigns to protect the ozone
short-termism of modern politics and our sustainability (resource insecurity); health layer and reduce tobacco use, to the European
collective inability to break the gridlock which (shifting burdens of disease); and technology Single Market and the Millennium Development
undermines attempts to address the biggest (information and communications revolution). Goals, there are many examples of where
challenges that will shape our future. In Now These megatrends apply the world over, disparate groups have come together and made
for the Long Term, we urge decision-makers reinforcing old and generating new sets of significant progress. At the other end of the
to overcome their pressing daily preoccupations challenges. results spectrum, the Commission considers
to tackle problems that will determine the less successful characteristics of modern
lives of today’s and tomorrow’s generations. The Commission then considers five categories politics, including the tragedy of the commons,
Dr James Martin, the founder of the Oxford of challenges that arise from these megatrends a lack of intergenerational vision and awareness,
Martin School, highlighted that humanity is at that are likely to shape our future: the absence of global oversight, and vested
a crossroads. This could be our best century 1. Society: How can growth and development interests. Following these insights, Part B sets
ever, or our worst. The outcome will depend be made more sustainable and inclusive? out five shaping factors that make positive
on our ability to understand and harness the 2. Resources: How can food, energy, water and change so difficult:
extraordinary opportunities as well as manage biodiversity be made more secure?
the unprecedented uncertainties and risks. 3. Health: How can public health infrastructure 1. Institutions: Too many have struggled to
and processes respond to the needs of all? adapt to today’s hyper-connected world.
Our report identifies what these challenges 4. Geopolitics: How can power transitions be 2. Time: Short-termism directs political
are, explains how progress can be made, and the basis for fresh forms of collaboration? and business cycles, despite compelling
provides practical recommendations. The 5. Governance: How can businesses, exceptions.
Commission outlines an agenda for the long institutions and governments contribute to 3. Political Engagement and Public Trust:
term. Our case for action is built in three parts. more inclusive and sustainable growth? Politics has not adapted to new methods or
The first, Possible Futures, identifies the key members.
drivers of change and considers how we may Part A also highlights what is known about 4. Growing Complexity: Problems can escalate
address the challenges that will dominate this possible responses to these challenges. much more rapidly than they can be solved.
century. Next, in Responsible Futures, the New targets on growth and employment, 5. Cultural Biases: Globalisation can amplify
Commission draws inspiration from previous and a focus on youth workers and flexible cultural differences and exclude key voices.
examples of where impediments to action workplaces are presented. The importance
have been overcome, and lessons from where of resource transparency and information
progress has been stalled. We then consider the sharing is reiterated, as are measures to
characteristics of our current national and global counteract climate change. Goals to reduce
society that frustrate progress. The final part, non-communicable diseases (NCDs),
Practical Futures, sets out the principles for remedy deficiencies in public health systems,
action and offers illustrative recommendations implement agreed best practice, and partner
which show how we can build a sustainable, creatively with the pharmaceutical industry
inclusive and resilient future for all. are stressed. Countries are advised to
identify shared interests, update institutions
and develop cybersecurity capacity as they
navigate structural transitions in international
politics. Better governance will aid this quest,
particularly if technology is used creatively,
indicators are improved, and business is rewired
to invest for the long term.
6
Part C, Practical Futures, contains the 3. Revalue the Future: Existing institutional
Commission’s Agenda for the Long Term. incentives should be rebalanced to reduce
It is arranged around five principles, with bias against future generations. This can be
practical examples proposed to illustrate each done in four ways:
principle. Some build on possible responses • Focus Business on the Long Term: ensure
to the challenges identified in Part A. Others companies and financial systems give greater
respond to the shaping factors outlined in priority to long term “health” and look
Part B, and seek to address deeper political and beyond daily or quarterly reporting cycles.
cultural factors that obstruct a longer-term • Discounting: future generations should not
engagement. We provide indicative examples be discounted against simply because they
of principles and proposals that advance the are born tomorrow and not today.
interests of future generations and promote • Invest in People: remove perverse subsidies
resilience, inclusiveness and sustainability. The on hydrocarbons and agriculture, and redirect
Agenda is as follows: support to the poor.
• Measure Long-term Impact: create an index
1. Creative Coalitions: Responding to this to track the effectiveness of countries,
century’s challenges will require multi- companies and international institutions on
stakeholder partnerships. The Commission longer term issues.
suggests three:
• C20-C30-C40: a Coalition of the Working 4. Invest in Younger Generations: Greater
comprising countries, companies and cities to attention should be given to promoting a
counteract climate change. more inclusive and empowered society,
• CyberEx: a new early warning platform to particularly for younger generations. Two
promote a better understanding of common priorities should be:
threats amongst government, corporate and • Attack Poverty at its Source: break the
individual users. intergenerational cycle of poverty through
• Fit Cities: a city-based network to fight the social protection measures such as
rise of non-communicable diseases. conditional cash transfer programmes.
• A Future for Youth: countries should invest in
2. Innovative, Open and Reinvigorated youth guarantees to address unemployment
Institutions: Institutions and processes and underemployment.
should be renewed for the modern operating
environment. Five steps are suggested: 5. Establish a Common Platform of
• Decades, not Days: invest in independent, Understanding: The ability to address
accountable institutions able to operate today’s global challenges is undermined by the
across longer-term horizons. absence of a collective vision for society. To
• Fit for Purpose: incorporate sunset clauses remedy this, the Commission urges renewed
into publicly funded international institutions dialogue on an updated set of shared global
to ensure regular review of accomplishments values around which a unified and enduring
and mandates. pathway for society can be built.
• Open up Politics: build on initiatives such as
the Open Government Platform to optimise The Commission applauds the remarkable
new forms of participation and transparency. progress of past decades: on balance, the
• Make the Numbers Count: establish world’s population is safer, healthier, more
Worldstat to improve the reliability and productive and cooperative than ever.
availability of statistics. Nevertheless, much work remains to be done.
• Transparent Taxation: address tax abuse and Now for the Long Term aims to stimulate
avoidance through a Voluntary Taxation and action and debate. Commissioners look forward
Regulatory Exchange. to engaging with governments, businesses,
NGOs and civil society in order to take these
ideas and recommendations forward in the
months and years ahead.
7
Introduction 8
NOW is the best time in history to be alive. The empowerment of people through countries. Government and business leaders
Our world has experienced a sustained period investment in education and other forms of tend to focus on the short term, which offers
of positive change. The average person is human capital is critical for sustainable and quicker and potentially easier payoffs at lower
about eight times richer than a century ago,1 inclusive growth. Entrepreneurs and investment political cost.
nearly one billion people have been lifted out of thrive when not only infrastructure and
extreme poverty over the past two decades,2 innovative capacity is developed, but when the The aim of the Oxford Martin Commission for
living standards have soared, life expectancy has rules governing society are also transparent Future Generations (“the Commission”) is to
risen, the threat of war between great powers and fair. Given the scale of the challenges identify the scale of the challenges humanity is
has declined, and our genetic code and universe and the prospect of very positive but also facing and to offer suggestions as to how they
have been unlocked in previously inconceivable possibly disastrous change, the response of may better be managed. We believe that we
ways. Many of today’s goods are unimaginable governments, businesses and citizens should can and must do a much better job of securing
without collective contributions from different not be to become more short-sighted. The scale the opportunities and mitigating the risks.
parts of the world, through which more of of the opportunities and risks requires more The Commission seeks to draw attention to a
us can move freely with a passport or visa, attention to the future and a more far-sighted growing gap between knowledge and action on
provided we have the means to do so. Our attitude. In an increasingly integrated and many of today’s challenges, identify why action
world is functionally smaller, and its possibilities hyper-connected world, our individual future has slowed, and suggest pathways to move the
are bigger and brighter than ever before. Never depends more than ever on our collective future global agenda forward.
before have so many people been optimistic and our capacity to work together to deepen
about their future.3 our understanding of the critical challenges. Governing for the future
We need to ensure that we have the skills, The Commissioners have come together out
While the future is full of opportunity arising tools, institutions and social fabric necessary to of concern for the future. We agree governing
from the extraordinary advances of recent navigate safely through the hazardous fog of requires a dual vision: a commitment to address
decades, it is also highly uncertain and the future. current needs and to build the foundations for
characterised by growing systemic risks. In vibrant generations in the decades ahead. This
many cases, these risks are the consequences As the late French politician Pierre Mendès responsibility transcends obligations to today’s
of our success, arising from rising incomes, France used to say, “gouverner, c’est prévoir” citizens: it also relates to future generations and a
population growth, interconnectedness and – governing is looking forward, or foreseeing. broader societal ideal of trusteeship that requires
technological advances. Risks arising from Preparing for the future, however, seems us to leave the world better than we find it.5
the plundering of our planet’s natural capital, a luxury for today’s governments, who are This is a unique time in history. Our younger
growing inequality, and the potentially increasingly preoccupied with the present; generation is the first to live free of the scars
devastating results of accidental or deliberate indeed, many governments even “live with their of previous global wars. Given extraordinary
use of new technologies are among the eyes on the rear-view mirror, refighting ancient advances in knowledge and scientific
reasons we urgently need to deepen our battles and reigniting ancient enmities”.4 An understanding, today we are more aware than
understanding of the threats posed by inability to “look forward” characterises much ever of the implications of our actions on future
business as usual. of modern politics, especially in democratic generations, not least in areas like climate
9change and biodiversity. And we could arguably to the transformational changes which will One world; many cultures,
be amongst the last generations able to do characterise our lifetimes and shape the future perspectives and identities
anything to stop the long-term devastation of for the next generations. Taking a longer view Globalisation is not new but the global breadth
our planet. Soon it may be too late. We hold a is no panacea; striking a sustainable balance and depth of its impact has changed. Many
unique responsibility, arising from our advanced between short‑term and long‑term interests is asserted globalisation would result in greater
knowledge of the implications of our actions key. Currently, there is a lack of understanding homogenisation of customs and cultures, which
and the potential that our actions could create on the conditions under which long-term may have assisted in developing a common
or prevent irreversible damage to the livelihoods thinking might be improved.9 Existing structures understanding and agreement on how to
of future generations. This report aims to help bestow a higher value to immediate returns on address today’s challenges.10 In fact, in some
us step up to this unique responsibility for the investment. Some of these returns exacerbate cases, the opposite appears to have transpired:
benefit of those alive today and in the future.6 the risks and social consequences posed by globalisation has not been “equated with
longer-term challenges and delay collaborative homogenisation or uniformity” but has found
Justice Weeramantry, former Vice President of action on them. “localisation as its counterforce”.11
the International Court of Justice, reminded us
that civilisations across the ages have “refused The debate about the future, however, is not Since the Second World War, there has been
to adopt a one‑eyed vision of concentration on simply about the virtue of long-term thinking. great progress in building trust and momentum
the present”.7 Sustainable development, he has This is a debate about what is owed to future on a number of national and international
argued, “is one of the most ancient ideas in the generations. The Commission does not intend challenges. This has often been done by focusing
human heritage”.8 Evidence of long-term thinking to settle this debate. We accept there are on mutual interests, not just between people
comes in a variety of forms, whether it is in a range of good reasons to care about the but also among cities, nations and businesses.
defence, health care, fiscal planning, demography, interests of future persons, and to reflect on Such a capacity has been necessary “to perceive,
migration, the environment, or governance the extent to which such interests should be recognise, and deal with differences, conflicts,
structures more generally. Governments protected, considered, restored or enhanced and oppositions and to arrive at workable
regularly make long‑term commitments, such by those of us living today. No one system solutions to the problems and challenges
as in education, welfare and infrastructure, of government has a monopoly on thinking that result from an accelerating process of
though these are not necessarily guided by a about, or governing for, future generations, globalisation”.12 For the most part, however,
longer‑term view or explicitly mandated to even if certain systems may prove more today’s challenges are even more intertwined
address difficult long‑term questions. adept than others. We, the Commissioners, and beyond the scope of national jurisdiction.
drawn from different parts of the world, are Many of these challenges, not least those
Uncertainty about the future, the never-ending united by a desire to harness the opportunities related to climate change, are the by-products
immediacy of pressures at our doorsteps and presented in today’s world for the benefit of of industrialisation and economic growth.
the rapidity of change in today’s society make it current generations, whilst also ensuring that While the already advanced economies have
easier to rationalise living in the eternal present. we leave the world in a better position for generated many of the externalities, much of
Changing course towards the longer term our grandchildren, and the generations that the burden going forward will need to be shared
requires society to devote sustained attention succeed them. by the developing world, whose rapid growth is
10compounding challenges such as climate change necessary to tackle challenges common to all and categories are used to illustrate key challenges
and resource scarcity. Our hyper-connected requiring national and wider cooperation may need that need to be grappled with, the links between
world requires unprecedented collaboration. to occur incrementally. them, and how they might be addressed.
Reaching consensus on a path forward requires
a deep understanding of “how the one world About this report PART B: Responsible Futures seeks to diagnose
affects the many and how the many worlds This report aims to contribute to the ability of why gridlock and a lack of political will for change
affect the one”. This, in turn, necessitates a national and local governments, international persist on many challenges where action is
deep awareness of local and regional cultures, institutions, businesses and the broader imperative. It draws lessons from examples where
perspectives and identities, and how they are community to understand and navigate these impediments to action have been overcome,
responding to each other in an era in which competing tensions in order to grapple with the and also considers why certain efforts have
cooperation is a prerequisite for progress.13 major long-term issues of today. It examines five failed or stalled. Five shaping factors that impact
sets of challenges requiring concerted attention. the ability to get things done are identified:
Individuals often take as a starting point difference, The Commission does not attempt to provide institutions, time, political engagement and
not likeness: we often define ourselves largely one-stop solutions and we are aware of the trust, complexity and culture.
based on what differentiates us from those we wide-ranging arguments regarding the right
encounter.14 This “precedence of difference course of action. Today’s challenges are deeply PART C: Practical Futures builds from the
over sameness” has important, and perhaps complex and interconnected, and will require possible and responsible futures suggested in
misunderstood, consequences for the conduct multiple and sustained actions in order to be fully Parts A and B, and offers practical, overarching
of multilateral dialogues and negotiations on the addressed. Our aim is to highlight areas where recommendations to overcome the gridlock of
longer-term challenges identified in this report. action could be taken if the political will were modern politics and shift mindsets towards the
As Commissioners, we have observed that mobilised to do so, and how it could be taken. We long term. The recommendations are arranged
globalisation can sharpen cultural contrasts and try to understand why action has become more around five key principles: creative coalitions;
invoke stronger claims for localisation.15 While the difficult and provide recommendations which we innovative, open and reinvigorated
interconnections made possible via a globalised hope will be useful in terms of moving forward institutions; revalue the future; invest
world provide hope for “economical, ecological, the agenda for future generations. in younger generations and establish a
educational, informational, and military forms of platform of understanding.
cooperation”, this environment can also trigger The report comprises three parts:
“a counter-reaction to what people experience
as a threat”.16 Such a reaction – defensive PART A: Possible Futures gives a synopsis of
localisation despite globalisation – might come global megatrends and introduces the key
from individuals, communities, or take place within challenges on which action is essential. These
institutions. This means the Commission cannot challenges are introduced within five broad
be starry‑eyed about the prospect of broad, categories: society, resources, health,
sweeping changes and position leaps on the geopolitics and governance. This is by no
challenges it identifies. Movement along pathways means an exclusive or comprehensive list, but the
11Part A:
Possible Futures
12Megatrends
Taking stock
Megatrends mark important shifts in the
evolution of society.17 They tend to persist
over the long term, at times with impacts that
are not immediately evident. Some are more
reversible than others. Megatrends can be
extremely positive, such as poverty reduction,
the emergence of the Internet, longer lifespans
and the decline of great wars. They can also be
negative, as is evidenced by growing inequality
and the rising threats of both infectious and
non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Either
way, megatrends can and often do generate
profound and potentially permanent changes to
the way societies are governed.
Presenting a picture of the future can be risky.
It can leave us jumping at “distant and fragile
shadows” and unprepared when the real world
knocks at the door.18 We know events are often
unanticipated. The future is bound to be full of
good and bad surprises. This does not mean we
should be complacent about what is happening
around us, and ignore what that might mean for
the future.
Figure 1: Global megatrends in the 21st century
In this section, we identify a number of Source: Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations.
prominent global megatrends. Some date back
to before the Industrial Revolution; others
have become influential since the end of the
Cold War. We do not seek to be too predictive.
Ensuring that one is able to seize the positive
opportunities and build resilience against the
downside risks will require an open mind and
constant commitment to discovery and learning.
The megatrends are grouped under seven
headings but are highly interactive. Many
megatrends are slow, whilst the direction of
others may turn or accelerate unexpectedly.
Globalisation underpins them all. Together,
these megatrends are transforming the world
and doing so in a manner that is distinct from
the drivers of change in earlier times.
13Demographics
Over the next century, changes in the world’s
demography – the characteristics and
composition of the global population – are
likely to be dramatic. This is not just about
gross numbers; it is also about the age, lifespan,
distribution and activities of people. The world’s
population has climbed from 1.6 billion in 1900
to around 7 billion today, and is projected to
exceed 8 billion by 2025 and perhaps 9 billion by Half the world’s
2050. Over 60 percent of the global population population lives in
is likely to live in Africa and Asia by 2050.19 this circle
Approximately 70 percent of the growth is likely
to occur in 24 of the world’s poorest countries.2
Ageing nations
The world’s population is getting older, with the Figure 2: Global population distribution, 2013
population over 60 growing fastest.21 In less Source: Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations.
than 40 years, one in every five people will be at
least 60 years old. Average lifespan is projected
to be 83 years in the developed world and 72
in the less developed world by 2050, compared
with 78 and 67 today, and 66 and 42 in 1950.22
The overall ratio of old to young is set to almost
double from current levels, and total numbers of 60-80 year olds over 80s (as % of total population)
over 60s will more than double from 810 million
to 2 billion. Ageing will impact certain parts of
Latin
the world much earlier, transforming populations: North America &
the ratio of the old-age population to the Europe America Oceania Asia Caribbean Africa
working population (15-64 years) in Japan is 35
already over 38 percent and is projected to reach
almost 70 percent by 2050, for example,23 and
30
half of Europe will be over 50 by the end of this
decade.24 Discrepancies in sex ratios have also
become more pronounced in some places. Whilst 25
the longer life expectancy of females is gradually
Percentage
diminishing imbalanced sex ratios in many
populations, Asia is experiencing an increased 20
“masculinisation” of society. The difference
between the numbers of men and women in Asia 15
more than tripled from 1950-2005.25
10
5
0
2007 2050* 07 50 07 50 07 50 07 50 07 50
* Prediction
Figure 3: The ageing global population
Source: UN-DESA, World Population Prospects – The 2010 Revision: Highlights and Advance Tables (New York: United Nations
Department of Economic and Social Affairs), p. 8.
14Mobility
Europe
2009: 664m
North America 2030: 680m
2009: 338m
2030: 322m
Asia Pacific
Middle East and Africa 2009: 525m
2009: 137m 2030: 3228m
Central & South America 2030: 341m
2009: 181m
2030: 313m
Figure 4: The rise of the global middle class
Note: m = millions of people. “Middle Class” is defined as those households with daily expenditures of between USD $10 and USD $100
per person. The light blue circle depicts the size of the middle class population in 2030; the dark red circle charts the 2009 middle
class population. Source: Commonwealth of Australia, Australia in the Asian Century (Canberra: Department of the Prime Minister and
Cabinet, 2012), p. 63.
As a share of the world’s population, migration vast majority will come from emerging markets, percent reduction in South and West Asia).35
today is less prevalent than it has been in the past, which are projected to double their share of University enrolments in emerging countries
such as during the age of mass migration in the global consumption (from one third to two doubled between 1996 and 2007, whilst
19th century. Nevertheless, the total number of thirds) by 2050.32 Consumers will increasingly be student mobility globally also increased. Nearly
migrants has grown with the world’s population. concentrated in cities within emerging markets.33 four million students studied abroad in 2010,
The birthplace and destination of migrants is almost twice more than a decade earlier. The
constantly changing. Currently, there are over 210 This emerging middle class could provide a overall return on education is also climbing.
million people living outside their country of origin, much-needed impetus for balanced global Within OECD countries, tertiary-educated
up from 150 million in 1990.26 Remittances growth by boosting consumption, investing workers earn 55 percent more on average than
to developing countries are estimated to have in health, education and renewable energy, those with upper-secondary and alternative
reached USD $406 billion in 2012.27 and driving higher productivity, sustainable post-secondary qualifications.36 As we will
economic development, and more political see, however, education helps but does not
Urbanisation is also occurring rapidly within our stability via increased demand for accountability guarantee employment – connecting educated
populations.28 In 1950, only three of every ten and good governance.34 Whilst this constitutes individuals with jobs remains a challenge.
people lived in cities. In 2008, the number of a significant opportunity, there is also the risk
people in cities was greater than that in rural of an increasing divide between the growing
areas for the first time. Urbanisation generates middle class and those left behind. At the same
opportunities particularly in the delivery of time, growth in consumption and incomes will
services and public goods but also presents add further pressure to our strained resources
sizeable challenges. By 2030, over two billion and environment.
people may well be living in urban slums.29 A
dramatic rise in the number of people living in
urban floodplains is also expected, especially in Empowerment through education
Eastern and Southern Asia and in Africa.30
Access to primary education in particular is
regarded as critical to socioeconomic mobility,
Rise of the middle class and for this reason it has been an objective
of the Millennium Development Goals
Mobility is not just about geography; there is (MDGs). Substantial inroads have been made
also an integral socioeconomic dimension. Over this past decade in reducing the number of
the next 40 years, billions more people are out‑of‑school children (now about 60 million,
expected to join the global middle class.31 The down from 108 million 20 years ago, with a 66
15Society
2005 2015
Vietnam ZAF
KEN BDI
Zambia BFA
Guinea
Haiti
Indonesia MOZ PHL
India MEX
47 Pakistan
Ethiopia 456 Bangladesh CIV
Benin
Angola NPL 33
MOZ MWI
RWA
ZAF Chad Nigeria
Bangladesh DRC 96
DRC MDG
76 48
38 17 China
Niger
NPL
Tanzania CMR
Indonesia 31
PHL Nigeria
Pakistan 34 India
102 COL
China 35 88
208 MLI UGA
UGA
UZB
Tanzania
34 Brazil Sub-Saharan Africa Europe and Central Asia
MWI Latin America and Caribbean East Asia and Pacific
Niger MDG
Middle East and North Africa South Asia
(Millions of poor people)
Figure 5: The changing global poverty landscape
Note: Numbers refer to individuals living below the international poverty line of USD $1.25 a day, figures rounded to the nearest million. The 2015 numbers are forecasts and for a number of
countries the scale of improvement is indicative of the number of people clustered around the poverty line used in the figure. Source: Laurence Chandy and Geoffrey Gertz, Poverty in Numbers: The
Changing State of Global Poverty from 2005-2015 (Washington DC: The Brookings Institution, 2011), p. 8.
Uneven and unequal countries such as China, India, Russia and South Africa43), social exclusion persists (through
Africa, it is widening rapidly.40 unemployment, poverty or a lack of access
For the past three decades, there has been to political, economic, educational or societal
a steady decline in poverty rates in the Generational and gender divides processes).44 Exclusion hits the old, the young
developing world. As highlighted in Figure 5, this and women hardest, especially in developing
progress is anticipated to continue, not least One third of the world’s labour force countries. Gender inequality remains a key
in countries such as China and India. Yet the began 2012 poor or unemployed; global barrier to economic growth and poverty
contrast between rich and poor remains stark. unemployment is expected to remain over reduction. Women and girls account for six out
Despite overall progress on education, three out 200 million until at least 2015. According to of ten of the world’s poorest and two-thirds
of every four illiterate adults are located in just the ILO, over the past five years long-term of the world’s illiterate people. According to
ten countries (37 percent of them in India)37 unemployment has increased in 60 percent of the UNDP, women perform 66 percent of
and about half of all out-of-school children advanced and developing countries where there the world’s work, but earn just 10 percent
are in sub-Saharan Africa.38 According to the is available data.41 Young people are 3–4 times of the income and own only 1 percent of the
World Bank, more than 1.2 billion people do not more likely to be without a job: the global youth property.45
have access to electricity, including 550 million unemployment rate (12.6 percent) is more than
in Africa and 400 million in India.39 Societies double the unemployment rate of the labour
and individuals are becoming increasingly force as a whole.42
unequal. The Gini coefficient – an imperfect
measure of the gap between the richest and While there has been solid progress on reducing
poorest – has risen by more than 10 percent in extreme poverty (by 2050 it might only
OECD countries since 1992. In some emerging remain a concern in India and sub-Saharan
16Geopolitics
New world order World Asia
(Share of output) (Share of output)
The shift of economic power to emerging 100 100
markets is in full swing. Reports suggest that the
GDP of developing countries is now at least equal
to the developed world.46 Developing countries’ 80 80
share of global exports has increased over the
last decade from 33 to 43 percent. Their share
of global foreign direct investments (FDI) inflow 60 60
Percentage
has grown from nearly 20 to over 50 percent.47
China and India are on track to have 35 percent 40 40
of the world’s population and 25 percent of its
GDP by 2030.48 Brazil, Russia, India, and China’s
combined share of world GDP is expected to 20 20
match that of the original G7 countries by
2030.49 Even if these projections prove too
optimistic, the rise of new economic powers may 0 0
be expected to lead to a new world order.50 2005 2015 2025
Rest of world ASEAN
North America China
Shared networks now transcend state Latin America and Caribbean India
boundaries and render distinctions between Euro area Japan
Asia Rest of Asia
North, South, East and West increasingly
redundant. Networks of economic activity as
well as of diaspora communities and students Figure 6: Share of world output
educated in foreign countries are vital to this Source: Commonwealth of Australia, Australia in the Asian Century (Canberra: Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet,
transformation. Increased “brain circulation” 2012) p. 52.
enables the flow of capital, cultures, ideas,
global connections and cutting-edge expertise
around the world, whilst international research
networks and collaborations have flourished.
More than a third of scientific papers published
in international journals are now internationally
collaborative, up from one quarter of
publications nearly two decades ago.51
55
The global marketplace
World trade as percentage of world gdp ($us)
50
The landscape of trade in goods and services
has fundamentally changed since the Second 45
World War, as the General Agreement on Tariffs
and Trade (GATT) shepherded in a more open
and connected global economy. Today there are 40
nearly 160 members of GATT’s successor, the
World Trade Organization (WTO). From 1950–
35
2007 trade grew by an average of 6.2 percent
per year.52 In 2011 the total value of world
merchandise trade was estimated at USD$18.2 30
trillion.53 Developing countries achieved a share
of over 50 percent of global trade in 2012.54
25
Trade in value-added goods and global supply
chains ensure exports rely on imports more than
ever, a reality of the global marketplace that 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
new OECD-WTO data has begun to capture.55
Many of our most used goods and services
are “made in the world”. The foreign content Figure 7: Growth in world trade 1960–2010
of “Korean” and “Chinese” electronic goods Source: Andrew McCulloch, “Globalisation and Protectionism Today”, Significance magazine, http://www.significancemagazine.
exported in 2009, for example, was around 40 org/details/webexclusive/2528931/Globalisation-and-Protectionism-today.html.
17Sustainability
percent.56 In many sectors, tariffs have declined governments and businesses, not least due to The “perfect storm”
sharply. Less prominent improvements include the low barriers to entry. Old concerns – such
more flexible rules on access to key medicines, as nuclear and chemical weapons – still remain Sustainability is inherently about the long term.
improved monitoring functions, and peaceful serious threats. Nuclear powers operating It requires the reconciliation of environmental,
and robust dispute settlement procedures. outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty social and economic demands necessary for
Non-tariff barriers are becoming the principal increase the risk of disaster, either by design, the sustained survival of humankind and other
impediment to the movement of a growing accident, or third party exploitation. The organisms on our planet. Above all, living
range of goods and services, and are becoming other lingering fear is a mismanaged power sustainably means grappling with the “perfect
a bigger part of world trade.57 Despite the surge transition, whereby emerging powers repeat storm” associated with the inseparability of
in global trade,58 disagreement remains between their predecessors’ mistakes by allowing military water, food, energy and climate.62
advanced and emerging economies on how plans to become built-in escalators to war.61
to reconcile trade with the development and
environmental agendas. ENERGY
Increased demand
andby50
50% % by
2030
dem (IEA) 20
More seats at the table ea
s ed
ENERGY
30
(IE
cr A
In
)
Whilst the state remains the principal actor
in world politics, there are now almost four
I)
3 0 (IF P R
Increa
times as many states as there were in 1945. CLIMATE
CLIMATE
CHANGE
sed de ma
This increase in players makes international CHANGE
by 20
consensus on global challenges harder to reach.
R
F O 50%
E
Demand for legitimate governance – often
0%
FOOD
nd
WATER
AT
OD b
d3
Increased demand Increased demand
through democratisation and transparency –
W
50% by 2030 30% by 2030
an
(FAO) y 2 e(IFPRI)
m
has grown, as has the concern about fragile 03
0( ed
d
FAO ea s
states. Expectations regarding the roles and ) Incr
responsibilities of states reflect changing global
norms and expectations. The responsibility
to protect citizens against grave crimes is
among recent advances. Others include the Figure 8: The “perfect storm”:
growing influence of international law in food, water and energy
trade, investment and armed conflict. The Source: Professor Sir John Beddington, Biodiversity: Policy
rise of international institutions and NGOs as Challenges in a Changing World (London: Government Office
key players has also been associated with an for Science, 2009), slide 19.
increase in the complexity of geopolitical power
and international arrangements.
It takes 1,500 litres of water and almost 10
Back to the future? megajoules of energy to produce 1kg of wheat,
and 10 times more water and around 20 times
It has been powerfully argued that the recent as much energy for 1kg of beef.63 As incomes
“decline of violence may be the most significant rise and the population grows, the pressure
and least appreciated development in the on these resources and the risk of resource
history” of the human race.59 With two World insecurity increases rapidly. Climate change
Wars and the Cold War dominating the 20th is a risk enhancer in this respect. If business
century, it is remarkable that wars between continues as usual, and demand for natural
the great powers appear increasingly unlikely. resources race ahead of supply,64 the “perfect
While overall violence has declined, conflict storm” will compound an unsustainable cycle.
has not ceased. At certain times during the
last decade, 15 major conflicts were taking Total energy consumption per year is almost
place at once.60 The majority of wars remain six times what it was in 1950; per capita use
civil wars or insurgencies, largely ethnic and has more than doubled.65 Food production
nationalist conflicts. Potentially devastating accounts for close to one third of all available
tensions still simmer, increasingly driven by energy,66 and agriculture accounts for around
religious fundamentalism. The stalemate of the 70 percent of water withdrawals worldwide.67
Middle East peace process provides continued Global demand for energy and fossil fuel use
instability. Increasingly, small networks and has been projected to rise by as much as 50
individuals have the capacity to create havoc on percent by 2030.68 Demand for coal (and
an unprecedented scale at low cost. associated emissions) has been reduced in the
In today’s security landscape, issues of cyber United States due to the shale gas revolution,
or biological warfare are growing concerns for but current indications show that this cannot
18Exajoules
per year
be replicated in the immediate future outside 600
North America, and ultimately depends on the
relative prices of coal and gas.69 Allied with
this growing demand is the lack of new land 500
available for agriculture: 80 percent of arable Nuclear Oil
land in developing countries is already used.70 Hydro-Elect Coal
400 Nat Gas Biofuels
The energy sector is water intensive too.71
Energy accounts for 27 percent of all water
consumed in the United States outside the
agricultural sector.72 Globally, three billion 300
people still have inadequate access to water,
even though the MDG of halving the proportion
of the world’s population without sustainable 200
access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation
has reportedly been met.73 Just 10 countries
are home to two‑thirds of the people without 100
access to improved drinking water.74 The World
Bank estimates two in every three countries
will be water-stressed by 2025, at which time 0
around 2.4 billion people will face “absolute
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
water scarcity”. Yet, to feed the world in 2050,
food production may need to rise by some 70
percent,75 which may require 50 percent more Figure 9: World energy consumption 1820-2010
water.76 Moreover, 40 percent of arable land is Note: Based on estimates from Vaclav Smil, Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects, (California: Praeger, 2010)
already degraded to some degree, a problem that together with BP Statistical Data.
will be exacerbated by global warming. Source: Our Finite World, “World Energy Consumption Since 1820 in Charts”, 12 March 2012, http://ourfiniteworld.
com/2012/03/12/world-energy-consumption-since-1820-in-charts/
Withdrawal Consumption
800 140
700 120
600
100
Billion cubic metres
Billion cubic metres
500
80
400
60
300
40
200
100 20
0 0
2010 2020 2035 2010 2020 2035
Fuels Power
Biofuels Bioenergy Oil
Fossil fuels Nuclear Coal
Gas
Figure 10: Global water use for energy production
Source: International Energy Agency, “Water for Energy”, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/water-energynexus/.
19Health
Cumulative total anthropogenic co2 emissions from 1870 (gtco2) The past century has delivered remarkable
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 advances in health, as is illustrated by the
5 increase of 4.7 years (male) and 5.1 years
2100 (female) to the average global life expectancy
Temperature anomaly relative to 1861 - 1880 (°c)
at birth between 1990 and 2010.86 The
eradication of smallpox, the discovery of
4 penicillin, the mapping of the human genome,
the significant reduction in under-five mortality,
developments in genetic technology, research
2100
and new treatments for HIV/AIDS, TB and
3
malaria, and growing access to health services
2100 and insurance ensure that our potential to live
2050 longer and healthier lives is greater than at
2 2050 any other point in human history. However,
2050
2050 2100 translating public health knowledge into
2030
practice has been fragmented and fraught with
2000
difficulty. Whilst biomedical technology and
2010 capacity to enhance the quality of health care
1
and prevention have improved significantly,
2000
1950 access to health care remains vastly lopsided,
1980 with the poor and disadvantaged suffering a
0 disproportionate burden of illness and disease.
1890
We are in the midst of experiencing multiple
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 transitions which impact health. These include
Cumulative total anthropogenic co2 emissions from 1870 (gtc) a demographic transition from a pattern of high
fertility and high mortality to low fertility (with
RCP2.6 Historical the exception of sub-Saharan Africa), an ageing
RCP4.5 RCP range population, and an epidemiological shift from
RCP6.0 1%/yr CO2 infectious diseases associated with malnutrition,
RCP8.5 1%/yr CO2 range famine and poor sanitation, to chronic and
degenerative diseases associated with longevity,
Figure 11: Cumulative total of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and global urban and industrial lifestyles. These changes are
temperature change also associated with a turning point in nutrition,
Source: IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers (Geneva: IPCC, September 2013), p. 36. “RCP” refers to the where malnutrition can be both from famine and
Representative Concentration Pathway scenario used by the IPCC. starvation as well as from high caloric, nutrient-
poor states, as in the case of obesity.87
It’s the green economy Our ecological footprint now exceeds our
biological capacity by a record margin.82 By
Historical, carbon-intensive models of economic 2010, almost one in four plant species were Lifestyle choices, lifestyle diseases
growth are unsustainable. Since the Industrial reportedly threatened with extinction, and
Revolution there has been a strong correlation vertebrae species numbers have fallen by a The growing threat today is NCDs. Most are
of GDP per capita with CO2 emissions.77 The use third in the past four decades. Such biodiversity caused by preventable factors, including poor
of carbon has yielded extraordinary benefits and loss is made even worse by climate change.83 diet, obesity and inactivity. NCDs like diabetes,
none of the now advanced economies would have Continued population growth will amplify cancer, heart disease, stroke, and chronic lung
developed without it, but the negative costs arising already stretched human demand for land and disease were responsible for 63 percent, or 36
from the consequent climate change now pose water resources, as well as food production million, of all global deaths in 2008. Described
a rising threat. Warming of the climate system is and energy, generating more emissions as the “invisible epidemic”,88 NCDs are now
unequivocal. Atmospheric levels of CO2, methane and heightening human pressures on the the leading cause of death in the world. Each
and nitrous oxide are “at levels unprecedented in environment. As urbanisation continues, the 10 percent rise in NCDs is associated with a
the last 800,000 years”, and CO2 concentrations focus of attention will increasingly be on our 0.5 percent lower rate of annual economic
are 40 percent higher than pre-industrial times.78 cities, which by one estimate are already growth.89 The cost of treatment for NCDs over
The IPCC is now highly confident that that the rate responsible for around 57–75 percent of global the next two decades, as our populations grow
of sea level increase since the mid 19th century greenhouse gas emissions.84 The effects of larger and live longer, is estimated to be about
“has been larger than the mean rate during the climate change and environmental degradation USD $30 trillion.90
previous two millennia”.79 If trends continue, could well undo part of the enormous progress
cyclone intensity, extreme weather events80 and made in tackling poverty, particularly because The costs of lost productivity are even higher.
global rainfall totals are also expected to increase, poor people and poor countries are least able Globally, projections suggest that there may be
with considerable regional variation.81 to cope.85 a cumulative economic output loss of USD $47
2050 around the world.99 Secondly, as predicted by
Alexander Fleming, certain infections are re-
45
emerging as threats because of growing drug
resistance. Antibiotics were hailed as miracle
40
drugs but due to excessive use, misuse and
Lost output, trillions (2010 $US)
35 poor adherence to antibiotic regimens, many
infection-causing bacteria have developed
30 resistance against existing antibiotics.100
Combined with the HIV epidemic, this has
25 resulted in the resurrection of diseases such
as TB, creating new epidemics that are much
20 harder to treat, such as multi-drug resistant TB.
15
10
5
0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
High income Low income
Upper middle income Total, low and middle income countries
Lower middle income Total, world
Figure 12: Projected non-communicable diseases cost by income level based
on economic growth forecasts
Source: World Economic Forum & Harvard School of Public Health, The Global Economic Burden of Non-Communicable Diseases
(Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2011), p.31.
trillion over the next two decades due to NCDs. responsible for 35 percent of all deaths of
This loss represents 75 percent of global GDP children under five.96 Although Africa has seen
in 2010 (USD $63 trillion). It also represents the greatest rate of decline in child mortality
“enough money to eradicate two dollar-a-day rates since 1990, it still has double the ratio of
poverty among the 2.5 billion people in that the next closest region.97
state for more than half a century.”91
Interconnected and infectious
Although NCDs have traditionally been
considered diseases of the affluent, it is in The focus on NCDs does not mean infectious
fact poor and disadvantaged populations that diseases are a relic of the past. They remain a
have the highest rates of NCDs in high-income significant threat, particularly in today’s highly
countries.92 Approximately 80 percent of the mobile, interdependent and interconnected
36 million NCD deaths in 2008 occurred in low- world. Risks anywhere can be threats
to-middle income countries. Many social factors everywhere. With around 40 new infectious
play decisive roles in determining the health of diseases discovered in the past 40 years, of
individuals and communities, as was reflected which SARS, HIV and different types of influenza
in the 2011 Rio Declaration.93 The rate of are but three, the concern about further new
increase of NCDs is, however, occurring much pandemics is not a case of if but when.98
faster in low-to-middle income countries, as
economic growth and life expectancy rise. Poor There are concerning trends surrounding
education and low incomes are associated with infectious diseases. Firstly, rapidly evolving
rising NCDs in both developed and developing viruses such as influenza, ebola, Middle East
countries.94 Sub-Saharan Africa is facing a Respiratory Syndrome – Coronavirus, and
particularly heavy dual burden of disease, where HIV continue to thrive. Such threats are not
NCDs are rising95 but malnutrition, hunger new; the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic,
and infectious diseases continue to be grave originating towards the end of the First World
problems. Undernutrition is estimated to be War, had a devastating impact on populations
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