OBSERVER Q2 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Chestertons MENA

Page created by Salvador Patton
 
CONTINUE READING
OBSERVER Q2 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Chestertons MENA
OBSERVER
Dubai Residential Report
Q2 2020
OBSERVER Q2 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Chestertons MENA
Market Overview

  Dubai’s residential sector faced a challenging second
  quarter, with social distancing measures, coupled
  with Covid-19’s economic impact, affecting market
  performance.

  Average apartment rents fell by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter
  (q-o-q) and 9.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), with average
  villa rents seeing more moderate declines of 2.6% q-o-q
  and 7.2% y-o-y. While social distancing policies broadly
  restricted the rental market over April, activity recovered
  in May, driven by tenants looking to reduce rental costs
  or take advantage of lower rents to upsize.

  The impact on residential prices was less pronounced,
  with the average price of recorded off-plan transactions
  seeing a slight uplift, while both new listing and
  completed unit prices fell. On average, Chestertons
  estimates that apartment and villa prices saw quarterly
  falls of 2.6% and 1.2%, respectively.

  A total of 5,233 residential units were sold over
  Q2, representing a quarterly decline of 45%, with
  corresponding transaction value falling by 40% to AED
  9.06 billion. When looked at on a monthly basis, June
  transaction figures were encouraging and point towards
  more typical sales volumes over the third quarter.

  While clearly a testing period, there were also positives to
  draw from Q2. Developers held back new off-plan sales
  launches, a move that bodes well for more balanced
  supply and demand dynamics medium-term. Dubai
  also took a step towards greater market transparency,
  with the routine release of its official house price index,
  Mo’asher, likely to give rise to greater investor confidence.

  The outlook for Dubai’s residential market will be closely
  tied to the performance of the wider economy. Over
  the second half of 2020, we expect residential prices
  and rents to fall further, driven by a declining expatriate
  population and an overall private sector contraction.
  Assuming a return to economic growth next year, it is
  likely that residential prices will see greater stability over
  2021.

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 								               2
OBSERVER Q2 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Chestertons MENA
Q2 Highlights                                                              Key Indicators
Economic Snapshot

Dubai’s economy was impacted by measures introduced to counter                    Apartments
Covid-19 over the second quarter, with a further decline in GDP
                                                                                  Prices:
expected to follow Q1’s 3.5% contraction. Tourism-related sectors
and physical retailers were acutely affected by the suspension of                 Q-o-Q Change: –2.6%
tourist arrivals coupled with the temporary closure of hotels and malls.
The proactive policy response from both UAE and Dubai authorities,
                                                                                  Y-o-Y Change: –9.8%
however, eased the overall economic impact, with the UAE’s central                Rents:
bank (CBUAE) predicting a recovery in economic activity over the
second half of 2020. The CBUAE specifically cited the Targeted
                                                                                  Q-o-Q Change: –3.9%
Economic Support Scheme (TESS), along with economic stimulus                      Y-o-Y Change: –9.5%
packages announced by both local and federal governments, as
likely to weigh in positively on growth once the pandemic subsides.

Sales Prices                                                                      Villas
Average apartment prices fell by 2.6% from Q1 2020, an increase in                Prices:
the rate of decline seen over Q1, with average villa prices seeing a              Q-o-Q Change: –1.2%
more moderate fall of 1.2%. On an annual basis, average apartment
prices declined by 9.8%, with villas falling by 7.1%. There was often             Y-o-Y Change: –7.1%
a gap witnessed between buyer and seller price expectations over                  Rents:
Q2 and average prices will likely decline further next quarter as
transaction volume gains pace.                                                    Q-o-Q Change: –2.6%
Rental Rates
                                                                                  Y-o-Y Change: –7.2%

Average apartment rents fell by 3.9% over Q2, following more
moderate declines of 1.5% the previous quarter, leading to a 9.5%
fall from Q2 2019. Average villa rents proved more resilient, falling
                                                                                  Sales Volume
by 2.6% and 7.2% on a quarterly and annual basis, respectively.                   5,233 units
Covid-19’s economic impact will continue to challenge rents over
2020, with falls in private sector salaries, rising unemployment and a            –45.4% Q-o-Q
reduced population set to place downward pressure on rates.                       –39.6% Y-o-Y
Off-plan Sales Launches

Developers refrained from launching new projects for sale over the                Sales Value
second quarter, leaving total off-plan sales launches at 4,458 units
for H1 2020. This compares to 12,222 in H1 2019 and 21,435 in H1                  AED 9.06 billion
2018. The reduction in new sales launches is a welcome step towards
                                                                                  –39.9% Q-o-Q
more balanced supply and demand dynamics medium-term.
                                                                                  –36.6% Y-o-Y
Transactions

Volumes. Overall residential transactions reached 5,233 units over
the second quarter, representing a near 40% fall on an annual basis               Off-plan Launches
and a 45% fall q-o-q.
                                                                                  4,458 units (H1 2020)
Values. The total value of residential transactions stood at AED 9.06             –63.5% Y-o-Y
billion, a near 40% fall on a quarterly basis and a 37% fall y-o-y.

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 							                                                     3
OBSERVER Q2 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Chestertons MENA
Covid-19’s impact disrupted Dubai’s residential
 sector, affecting agency and developer activity
 over Q2
Measures introduced to combat Covid-19 restricted broad                from AED 558 to AED 524 per sq ft, representing a decline of
activity over the second quarter, significantly reducing               6.1% over Q2.
transaction volumes, especially across April and May. Limited
sales activity can make accurately assessing average prices            Motor City saw a 5.3% drop from the previous quarter, with
challenging, with the market witnessing a divergence in trends         prices decreasing from AED 565 to AED 535 per sq ft.
between average off-plan transaction prices and average listing
and completed property prices over Q2.                                 Locations which witnessed more moderate declines over Q2
                                                                       included The Greens and Business Bay, with prices falling by just
We estimate that average apartment prices fell 2.6% from               0.5% and 1%, respectively. Average apartment prices across
Q1 2020, an increase in the rate of decline from the previous          Dubai Marina also performed comparatively well, declining by
quarter, with average villa prices seeing a more moderate fall of      1.1% to AED 1,009 per sq ft, down from AED 1,020 over Q1.
1.2%. On an annual basis, average apartment prices declined
by 9.8%, with villas falling by 7.1%.                                  On an annual basis, Business Bay and The Views saw the most
                                                                       moderate declines, at -1.4% and -3.7%, respectively, following
We expect prices to face further declines over the second half         Business Bay recording a minor uplift in first quarter prices, and
of 2020, with a subdued economy and a likely reduction of              having seen stable prices over the preceding two quarters.
the emirate’s population, both key drivers of Dubai residential        Motor City, Dubai Silicon Oasis and Jumeirah Village Circle
prices, set to hamper market performance.                              (JVC) saw the highest declines on an annual basis, with average
                                                                       prices at Motor City falling from AED 700 per sq ft in Q2 2019
A notable fall in new off-plan sales launches, which totalled          to AED 535.
4,458 units over the first half of 2020, compared to 12,222
units in H1 2019 and 21,435 units in H1 2018, bodes well for           Villas:
supply and demand dynamics and should serve to support                 Q-o-Q Change: –1.2%
residential prices medium-term.                                        Y-o-Y Change: –7.1%

 Units Launched for Sale Off-plan and % Change                         All areas saw declines in average prices over the second quarter,
                                                                       within a bracket of -0.4% to -2.2% q-o-q and -4.6% to -12.9%
 30000                                                          20%    y-o-y.
                                                                10%
 25000
                                                                0%     Palm Jumeirah saw the steepest quarterly price fall, with
 20000                                                          -10%   average values reaching AED 1,820 per sq ft, down from AED
 15000
                                                                -20%   1,860, a decline of 2.2%. This follows a price decline of less
                                                                -30%   than 1% over the previous quarter. The Meadows/The Springs
 10000                                                          -40%   prices saw a fall of 2% q-o-q, following a 1.2% rise the previous
  5000
                                                                -50%   quarter, with average prices reaching AED 815 per sq ft.
                                                                -60%
     0                                                          -70%   The Lakes, Arabian Ranches and Jumeirah Park all witnessed
         H1 2016    H1 2017   H1 2018       H1 2019   H1 2020
                                                                       quarterly declines of less than 1%, at -0.4%, -0.6% and -0.7%,
  Source:                     Units launched
                                                      H-o-H Change     respectively. Average prices at The Lakes stood at AED 980 per
  REIDIN & Chestertons        for sale (Off-plan)
                                                                       sq ft, down from AED 1,038 in Q2 2019, with average prices at
                                                                       Arabian Ranches and Jumeirah Park standing at AED 790 and
Apartments:                                                            AED 720, respectively.
Q-o-Q Change: –2.6%
Y-o-Y Change: –9.8%                                                    The Meadows/The Springs saw the lowest annual decline, at
                                                                       -4.6%. Jumeirah Park was the only area to see a double-digit
The largest price declines in the apartment segment were               fall in average prices, falling from AED 827 per sq ft in Q2 2019,
witnessed in Discovery Gardens, with average prices falling            representing a decline of 12.9%.

 OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 								                                                                                       4
OBSERVER Q2 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Chestertons MENA
HOT TOPIC                  Dubai embraces greater market transparency

Q2 saw the release of the second and third editions of Mo’asher, Dubai’s official house price index, marking a further step towards
greater transparency within the emirate’s residential sector. The index, which is jointly produced by the Dubai Land Department
(DLD) and listings portal Property Finder, tracks property prices from a base year of 2012.

In May 2020, the sales index increased 12.1% compared to 2012 and 0.5% compared to April 2020. Over April and May, the index
saw an increase of 1.54%. Mo’asher provides separate apartment and villa/townhouse indices, which saw monthly rises of 0.59%
and 0.95%, respectively, in May 2020.

The routine release of the index, which was first announced last year, should serve to bolster investor confidence and enhances
Dubai’s standing as the region’s most transparent property market.

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q1 2020 							                                                                               5
OBSERVER Q2 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Chestertons MENA
Apartments and Villas − Residential Sales Prices and Quarterly Change

                                                                                                                                          Arabian Gulf
                                Dubai
                                                                The Palm
                                                                Jebel Ali
                                                                                                                                                                                                     -2.8
                               Waterfront                                                                                                                                                              Q-o-
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Chan
                                                                                                                                                      AED1,009
                                                                                                                                                        DUBAI
                                                                                                                                                        MARINA
                                                                                                                                                                        -1.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                             AED79
                                                                                                                                                                                              JUMEIRA
                                                                                                                                                                            Q-o-Q            LAKE TOW
                                                                                                                                                                           Change

                                                                                                                                                      AED1,020
                                                                                                                                                         DUBAI
                                                                                                                                                         MARINA
                                                                                                                     AED815 -2.0%
                                                                                                                              Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                                                             Palm Jumeira

                                                                                                                     THE MEADOWS         Change
                                                                                                                       /SPRINGS
                                                                                                                                                               Bluewater

                                                                                                  AED524                          AED832                        Islands
                                                                                                                                                                        Jumeirah Beach
                                                                                                                                  THE MEADOWS                             Residence
                                                                                                  DISCOVERY                         /SPRINGS
                                                                                                   GARDENS                                                           Dubai Marina              Dubai Pear
                                                                                                                                                                                           Media Interne
                                                                                                  -6.1%                                                                                     City
                                                                                                             AED558
                                                                                                                                                                                                    City
                                                                                                                                  Ibn Battuta                                        JLT
                                                                                                    Q-o-Q                            Mall      The   Jumeirah                                 Greens
                                                                                                   Change     DISCOVERY                      Gardens Heights                          Emirates TECOM
                                                                             Jebel Ali Freezone
                                                                                                               GARDENS                                             Meadows              Hills
                                                                                                                                   Jebel Ali            Discovery  /Springs
                                                Downtown
                                                 Jebel Ali
                                                                            –                                                       Village             Gardens Jumeirah
                                                                                                                                                                  Islands
                                                                                                                                                                                                 The View
                                                                                                                                                                                         The Lakes

                                                                                                            -0.7%                                               Jumeirah
                                                                                                                                                                  Park      The Springs
                 Abu Dhabi                                                                                   Q-o-Q                        Al Furjan

                                                                                                                     AED725
                                                                                                            Change

                                                                                                                     JUMEIRAH
                                                                                                                                                                                                    AED9
                                      Technology Park
                                                                                                  AED720
                                                                                                                       PARK                           -1.6%                          Jumeirah
                                                                                                                                                                                                    THE LA
                                                                                                                              Green                    Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                  Jumeirah                         Village Circle
                                                                                                     JUMEIRAH               Community                 Change
                                                                                                                                                    Golf           International
                                                                                                       PARK                                        Estates            Media
                                                                                                                                      AED600 AED610
                                                                                                                        Dubai
                                                                                                                     Investment
                                                                                                                         Park
                                                                                                                                                Production
                                                                                                                                                Zone(IMPZ)
                                                                                                                                             JUMEIRAH
                                                                                                                                                                                                      AED
                                                                                                                                         JUMEIRAH               VILLAGE                                THE
                                                                                                                                          VILLAGE                CIRCLE                  Sports
                                                             Dubai                                                                         CIRCLE                                         City
                                                             World                                                                                                                                      Mo
                                                             Central                                                   -2.0%                                                                             Ci
                                                                                                                         Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                        Change

                                                                                                             AED657 AED670                                       -5.0%
                                                                                                              SPORTS CITY     SPORTS CITY                          Q-o-Q
                                                                                                                                                                  Change

                                                                                                                                               AED665                    AED700
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Dubailand
                                                                                                                                                  DUBAILAND                DUBAILAND

Figures in AED/Sq Ft            Villa Sales Q1 2020                         Villa Sales Q2 2020                         Apartment Sales Q1 2020                                          Apartment S
Source: Chestertons Research

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 								                                                                                                                                 6
OBSERVER Q2 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Chestertons MENA
The World                                                                                                            The Palm Deira

8%
-Q
nge     AED768
         JUMEIRAH
        LAKE TOWERS
90
 AH
WERS
                              -2.2%
                                 Q-o-Q
                                Change

 ah
              AED1,860 AED1,820
                  PALM
                JUMEIRAH                 PALM
                                       JUMEIRAH                                                                                                  Dubai
                                                                                                                                                Maritime
                                                                                                                                                  City

                                                                                                                                   -1.6%
                             AED836                                                                                                  Q-o-Q
rl    AED840                   THE GREENS
                                                 Umm Suqeim                               Jumeirah                         Satwa
                                                                                                                                    Change
                                                                                                                                                Bur Dubai
et     THE GREENS                                                                                                                             Burjuman                                                      Hamriya

                                                                                                                       AED1,343 AED1,322
                                                                                                                           Badaa
              Sufouh   -0.5%                                               Safa
                                                                                          Al Wasl
                                                                                                                                  Centre
                                                                                                                                        Umm
                                                                                                                                                                                    Deira            Wuheida
                           Q-o-Q               Manara                                                                           DOWNTOWN                                                                              Mamzar
                          Change                                                                                        DOWNTOWN
                                                                                                                            Trade                   Hurair
                                                                                                                        DIFC
                                                                                                                               Centre                Karama                       Deira City         Hor Al Anz
                       Mall of the Emirates                                                                Dubai Mall                                                              Centre
                                                               Al Quoz                                                                             Oud
 ws
             Barsha
                                                 AED1,050                                                                           Zabeel        Metha
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Al Nahda
                                                    THE VIEWS
                 Barsha   AED1,065                                                                                                                                    Garhoud                                                     Sharjah
                           THE VIEWS             -1.4%          Al Khail
                                                                                                                                                                                         Airport
 984                                                Q-o-Q
                                                   Change
                                                                 Gate                                                                                       Culture
                                                                                                                                                            Village
                                                                                                                                                                                        Free Zone
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Twar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Qusais
 AKES        -0.4%
               Q-o-Q                                                                        AED1,007
              Change                                                                         BUSINESS BAY                                                                 Umm
                                                                                                              Bu Kadra                                                   Ramool

 D980                            -5.3%                                                                     AED997
                                                                                                    -1.0% Meydan
                                                                                                           City
                                                                                                                                                            Dubai
                                                                                                                                                         Festival City
E LAKES
       Dubiotech
                                     Q-o-Q
                                    Change        AED535                                              Q-o-Q
                                                                                                     Change
                                                                                                                BUSINESS BAY
                                                                                                                                                                            Nadd
                                                   MOTOR CITY                                                                   Ras Al Khor                                Shamma                                                    Muhaisnah
otor                      AED565
ity
                                                                                        -1.7%                                                                  Nadd
                          MOTOR CITY
                                                                     AED570               Q-o-Q
                                                                                         Change
                                                                                                                                                            Al Hammar
                                                                                                                                                                                        -4.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                           Mirdif City
                                                                                                                                                                                            Centre
             Arabian                                                   DUBAI SILICON
                                                                Al Barari                                                                                                                 Q-o-Q
             Ranches                                                         OASIS                                                                                                                   Mirdif
                                              Living Legends                                                                                                                             Change
                                                                                       AED580                                                                             Warqaa
                                                                                                                                                                                          Ghoroob                         Mizar

                                                                                                                                                                         AED465 AED445
  Al Waha
 Community                   AED795                                                    DUBAI SILICON

                                 ARABIAN            AED790                                OASIS           Nad Al Sheba
                                                                                                                                              Dragon Mart
                                                                                                                                                                                 Shorooq
                                                                                                                                                                                INTERNATIONAL
                                                                                                                                                                         INTERNATIONAL
     Layan                       RANCHES                ARABIAN                                                                                                                                          CITY
                                                        RANCHES                                                                               International                   CITY
                                                                                                                                                   City
                                          -0.6%                                                            Dubai
                                                                                                       Silicon Oasis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Khwaneej
                                               Q-o-Q                                                                                              Awir
                                              Change                                                                       Academic
                                                                                                                             City

Sales Q2 2020                                           Q-o-Q Change

                       OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 							                                                                                                                                                                        7
OBSERVER Q2 2020 Dubai Residential Report - Chestertons MENA
Q2 saw market-wide declines in average rents,
with villas proving more resilient

Dubai’s rental market saw broad declines over the second                of lower rents to upsize and upgrade their accommodation. The
quarter, as the economic impact of Covid-19 placed pressure on          most significant ongoing threats to the rental sector come from
rates. Average apartment rents fell by 3.9% over Q2, following          a fall in demand driven by rising unemployment and declining
more moderate declines of 1.5% over the previous quarter,               income levels for private sector workers. The second quarter
contributing to a 9.5% fall from Q2 2019.                               witnessed significant job losses, especially across travel-related
                                                                        sectors, and a further fall in Dubai’s expatriate population
Average villa rents proved more resilient, falling by 2.6%              presents a clear risk moving forward.
and 7.2% on a quarterly and annual basis, respectively. The
more moderate decline in villa rents is largely due to a rise in        Landlords will likely need to demonstrate continued flexibility
tenant interest in landed property, with agents reporting a             on both rents and payment terms, focusing on taking steps to
clear increase in villa enquires following the easing of social         retain tenants, over the second half of 2020.
distancing measures in May.
                                                                        Apartments:
All areas saw declines in average rents over Q2, although the           Q-o-Q Change: –3.9%
rate of decrease varied by unit type and location, with areas           Y-o-Y Change: –9.5%
with higher volumes of new supply, and smaller unit-types,
typically seeing larger average falls.                                  All areas saw declines in average rents over the second quarter,
                                                                        within a bracket of -1.4% to -6.6%.
With the ongoing economic impact of Covid-19 taking effect,
Dubai landlords have continued to offer discounts and more              Studio units saw the sharpest falls on average, declining 5.8%
flexible payment terms to both attract and retain tenants.              q-o-q and 12.6% y-o-y, followed by one bedroom units at 3.9%
Multiple rental cheques, already increasingly common, are now           and 11%, respectively.
widely expected by tenants, with payment through four to six
cheques becoming typical market practice over the second                Motor City witnessed the sharpest quarterly fall in average rents,
quarter. Landlords also offered extended rent-free periods and          at -6.6%, followed by Sports City at -6.4%. On an individual unit-
increasingly listed units with the option of shorter lease terms.       type basis, rents for three bedroom units at Dubailand saw the
                                                                        steepest quarterly decline, at -10%. Conversely, three bedroom
While social distancing measures largely restricted leasing             rents at International City and DIFC held steady for the second
activity during April, the market has seen a notable rise in activity   consecutive quarter, as did three bedroom units within Jumeirah
since May. Tenants looking to relocate have typically sort to           Lake Towers.
reduce rental costs, following a fall in income, or take advantage

HOT TOPIC                    Tenants adjust their priorities after lockdown

While Covid-19 counter measures impacted second quarter leasing activity, Dubai residential agencies reported a sharp rise in
enquires as restrictions eased over May. Agents also reported a change in requirements, with tenants increasingly looking for shorter
lease lengths and properties offering more flexible payment terms. With ongoing market uncertainty, it is likely that demand for
properties offering greater flexibility will continue.

Listings portal Property Finder also noted a spike in searches for Dubai villas and townhouses, with more tenants searching for
properties with private gardens, large balconies and private swimming pools following April’s lockdown.

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 								                                                                                    8
On an annual basis, average rents across Motor City and The         by 12.2% and 12.7% respectively, compared to Q2 2019.
Views saw the highest average declines, at -14.8% and -13.2%,       Average rents at Arabian Ranches also saw a double-digit
respectively, with The Greens, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai Sports    annual decline, at -10.2%, with other locations monitored
City and Discovery Gardens all seeing double-digit falls since Q2   seeing annual falls of below 10%.
2019.
                                                                    Jumeirah Islands, Palm Jumeirah and The Lakes saw the lowest
Jumeirah Lake Towers and International City saw declines of         annual declines in average rents, at -2.9%, -3.1% and -5%,
6.9% and 5.6%, respectively, with Dubailand, Dubai Marina,          respectively.
Business Bay and DIFC witnessing annual declines of below 8%.
                                                                    On a unit-type basis, four bedroom villas at The Meadows
Villas:                                                             saw the sharpest annual declines, reaching AED 175,000 per
Q-o-Q Change: –2.6%                                                 annum, a decline of 16.7%. Conversely, five bedroom villas at
Y-o-Y Change: –7.2%                                                 Jumeirah Islands witnessed the lowest annual fall, standing at
                                                                    AED 236,500 per annum, a decline of just 1.5% from Q2 2019.
On a quarterly basis, Jumeirah Islands was the only location
to see a quarterly decline of below 1%, at -0.8%, with Victory      Smaller villa units showed steeper average declines, with two
Heights and The Meadows both seeing a comparatively                 and three bedroom units seeing annual rates fall by 13.7% and
moderate decline of 1.6% q-o-q.                                     8.4%, respectively, compared to declines of 7.2% across four
                                                                    bedroom villas and 5% for five bedroom units.
On an annual basis, the sharpest rental rate falls were witnessed
across The Springs and The Meadows, with annual rents falling

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 							                                                                             9
Apartments - Average Rents by District/Unit Type and Quarterly Change

                      250,000

                      200,000
AED RENTAL RATES

                      150,000

                      100,000

                       50,000

                            -
                                    Business Bay       DIFC           Discovery    Downtown         Dubai Marina         Dubai           Dubai
                                                                      Gardens        Dubai                           Silicon Oasis     Sports City

Source: Chestertons Research                             Studio         1BR       2BR         3BR         QoQ Change            YoY Change

 Villas - Average Rents by District/Unit Type and Quarterly Change

                      400,000

                      350,000

                      300,000
   AED RENTAL RATES

                      250,000

                      200,000

                      150,000

                      100,000

                       50,000

                                -
                                             Arabian               The                    The                The Lakes               Victory
                                             Ranches              Springs               Meadows                                      Heights

Source: Chestertons Research                             2BR            3BR       4BR         5BR         QoQ Change            YoY Change

 OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 								                                                                                   10
0%

                                                                                                       -2%

                                                                                                       -4%

                                                                                                              PERCENTAGE CHANGE
                                                                                                       -6%

                                                                                                       -8%

                                                                                                       -10%

                                                                                                       -12%

                                                                                                       -14%
Dubailand      International         JLT       JVC    The Greens        The Views          Dubai
                    City                                                                  Motor City

                                                                                                       0%

                                                                                                       -2%

                                                                                                       -4%

                                                                                                                PERCENTAGE CHANGE
                                                                                                       -6%

                                                                                                       -8%

                                                                                                       -10%

                                                                                                       -12%

                                                                                                       -14%

                                                                                                       -16%
   Al Furjan                   JVT         Jumeirah       Jumeirah                    Palm
                                            Islands      Golf Estates               Jumeirah

     OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 							                                                      11
Sales transactions fell sharply over Q2, although
June figures point to recovery

Residential transactions totalled 5,233 units over the second       Off-plan sales totalled 3,331 units over Q2, down from 5,387
quarter, representing a near 40% fall on an annual basis and a      the previous quarter and the 5,171 units sold over Q2 2019.
quarterly fall of 45%.                                              Completed sales stood at 1,902 units over Q2, a near 55% fall
                                                                    from the 4,204 sold over Q1 and down from the 3,499 units
The sharp fall in transactions is largely a result of social        sold over Q2 2019.
distancing measures restricting sales activity over April and
May, where total sales stood at 1,739 and 1,373 units,              Dubai Marina saw the highest volume of completed units
respectively. Eased restrictions over June had a notable impact     transfer over Q2, at 146, followed by Dubai Hills Estate at 120
on sales volumes, with monthly sales increasing to 2,121 units.     units.

While off-plan sales accounted for 64% of the total number          Transaction Values
of units sold over Q2, total transaction value was more evenly      Q-o-Q Movement (Completed Units): –41.1%
divided between off-plan and completed property sales,              Q-o-Q Movement (Off-Plan Units): –38.7%
standing at 51% and 49%, respectively.                              Y-o-Y Movement (Completed Units): –37.4%
                                                                    Y-o-Y Movement (Off-Plan Units): –35.8%
42% of apartments sold over Q2 were one bedroom units,
followed by studios at 27%, with two and three bedroom and          Transaction values for completed properties fell by over 40%
above units accounting for 22% and 9% of sales, respectively.       from Q1, from AED 7.53 billion to AED 4.43 billion. On an annual
                                                                    basis, the total transaction value of completed properties
Three bedroom villas accounted for 43% of second quarter            declined by 37.4%, from AED 7.08 billion in Q2 2019.
sales, followed by four bedroom villas at 31%. Two bedroom,
five bedroom and six bedroom and above villas accounted for         Off-plan transfers followed a similar trend, falling by 38.7% on
6%, 13% and 7% of total sales, respectively.                        a quarterly basis, from AED 7.54 billion in Q1 2020 to AED 4.62
                                                                    billion, with total transaction value declining by 35.8% annually.
Transaction Volumes
Q-o-Q Movement (Completed Units): –54.8%                            District One saw the highest total value of completed properties
Q-o-Q Movement (Off-Plan Units): –38.2%                             transfer over the second quarter, with transactions totalling AED
Y-o-Y Movement (Completed Units): –45.6%                            630 million, followed by Dubai Hills Estate at AED 534 million.
Y-o-Y Movement (Off-Plan Units): –35.6%

Quarterly Transactions by Volume (No of Units)                      Quarterly Transactions by Value (AED Billion)

6000                                                                  8.00

                                                                      7.00
5000
                                                                      6.00
4000
                                                                      5.00

3000                                                                  4.00

                                                                      3.00
2000
                                                                      2.00
1000
                                                                      1.00

   0                                                                  0.00
             Q2 2019           Q1 2020        Q2 2020                             Q2 2019           Q1 2020          Q2 2020

Source: REIDIN & Chestertons                 Completed Properties                  Off-Plan

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 								                                                                               12
HOT TOPIC                  What does the future hold for Dubai real estate?

The ongoing pandemic has taken its toll on Dubai’s residential sector, affecting performance at a point when the market was
starting to see more stable prices and even, across several communities, a modest rise in first quarter rents. The performance of
the UAE’s residential sector is closely tied to that of the wider economy, with UAE non-oil private sector growth showing a broad
correlation with sales price movements over recent years. With Dubai expected to see an economic contraction over 2020, and with
the emirate’s expatriate population likely to decline, we expect both rents and sales prices to fall over the second half of 2020.

Current economic projections see a return to growth next year, with Dubai Expo also set to drive tourist arrivals and provide a
platform for the emirate to showcase market opportunities. While the longer-term outlook is less clear, assuming a broad economic
recovery, we expect the market to see greater price stability over 2021.
OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 								   14
Transactions Dashboard Q2 2020

                 Apartments                                                        Villas
            Q2 2020 Sales Volume                                            Q2 2020 Sales Volume
             by No of Bedrooms                                               by No of Bedrooms

                    9%                                                                   6%
                                                                                   7%

                                                                            13%
            22%                      42%                                                                 43%

                                                                                   31%
                    27%

      One         Studio       Two         Three +              Three       Four              Five       Six +   Two

                 Apartments                                                         Villas
            Q2 2020 Sales Volume                                            Q2 2020 Sales Volume
            by Construction Status                                          by Construction Status

            41%
                                                                                                     42%
                                                                                  58%
                                  59%

            Source: REIDIN & Chestertons             Completed Properties                     Off-Plan

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 							                                                                    15
Q2 2020 Sales Transactions
Completed Units

Top 10 AreasInternational
              Based on Transaction
                          City     Volumes (Number of Units)

 Dubailand Residence Complex
            International City
        Jumeirah Village Circle
 Dubailand Residence Complex
             Dubai Sports City
        Jumeirah Village Circle
                Palm Jumeirah
             Dubai Sports City
            Downtown Dubai
                Palm Jumeirah
                  Town Square
            Downtown Dubai
                  Business Bay
                  Town Square
             Dubai Hills Estate
                  Business Bay
                 Dubai Marina
             Dubai Hills Estate
                                    -   20    40     60         80         100     120    140   160
                   Dubai Marina
     Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
                                    -   20    40     60         80         100     120    140   160

     Source: REIDIN & Chestertons

Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Values (in million AED)

    Jumeirah Beach Residence

            Bluewaters Island
    Jumeirah Beach Residence
         Jumeirah Bay Island
            Bluewaters Island
             Arabian Ranches
         Jumeirah Bay Island
                Dubai Marina
             Arabian Ranches
                 Business Bay
                Dubai Marina
            Downtown Dubai
                 Business Bay
               Palm Jumeirah
            Downtown Dubai
            Dubai Hills Estate
               Palm Jumeirah
                  District One
            Dubai Hills Estate
                                    -   100    200        300        400         500     600    700
                     District One
     Source: REIDIN & Chestertons

                                    -   100    200        300        400         500     600    700
     Source: REIDIN & Chestertons

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 								                                                  16
Q2 2020 Sales Transactions
Off-plan Units

Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Volumes (Number of Units)
               Umm Suqeim Third

                                   Villanova
                     Umm Suqeim Third
                         Emaar South
                               Villanova
                      International City
                          Emaar South
                       Downtown Dubai
                 International City
 The Lagoons (Dubai Creek Harbour)
                       Downtown Dubai
                        Sobha Hartland
  The Lagoons (Dubai Creek Harbour)
                       Business Bay
                       Sobha Hartland
                 Jumeirah Village Circle
                            Business Bay
                             District One
                 Jumeirah Village Circle
                                                -   50    100     150         200         250     300    350   400
                                 District One
 Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
                                                -   50    100     150         200         250     300    350   400

  Source: REIDIN & Chestertons

Top 10 Areas Based on Transaction Values (in million AED)

                 Jumeirah Village Circle

                          Dubai Harbour
                 Jumeirah Village Circle
                       Sobha Hartland
                       Dubai Harbour
                    Umm Suqeim Third
                         Sobha Hartland
                          Jumeirah First
                   Umm Suqeim Third
            Jumeirah Beach Residence
                           Jumeirah First
                            Business Bay
         Jumeirah Beach Residence
 The Lagoons (Dubai Creek Harbour)
                          Business Bay
                       Downtown Dubai
  The Lagoons (Dubai Creek Harbour)
                        District One
                       Downtown Dubai
                                                -   100     200         300         400         500     600    700
 Source: REIDIN & Chestertons District One

                                                -   100     200         300         400         500     600    700
  Source: REIDIN & Chestertons
OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 							                                                              17
About Us

Chestertons, a founding member of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, has been
delivering leading-edge property advice to clients for over 200 years.

From our origins in 1805 to today’s global operation
spanning over 120 offices in 20 countries, Chestertons         Nick Witty, BSc (Hons) MRICS
has enjoyed a longheld reputation for providing                Managing Director
expert property insight and on-the-ground delivery             MENA
                                                               nick.witty@chestertons.com
to investors, developers, corporate occupiers and
financial institutions.

We support our clients across the breadth of their
real estate needs and pride ourselves on taking an             Adam Wilson, BSc (Hons) MRICS ACIArb
                                                               Head of Valuations
interest in their goals and challenges. Our ‘old service       MENA
values’ means we are passionate about the success              adam.wilson@chestertons.com
of our clients and our focus is always on consistently
delivering value at every stage in the project lifecycle.

While Chestertons is a global company, we understand           Chris Hobden, BA (Hons) MSc MRICS
our clients’ interests are tied to the local market in which   Head of Strategic Consultancy
they operate. As such, we employ the most suitably             MENA
                                                               chris.hobden@chestertons.com
qualified people on the ground, while sharing global
best practices to support each and every client project.
We have unparalleled knowledge of the Middle East
and North Africa market with a team of 70 specialists
across the region.                                             Ellen Sleutjes
                                                               Head of Agency
                                                               MENA
                                                               ellen.sleutjes@chestertons.com

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 								                                            18
Core Services

                          Valuations
                          Mortgage and Secured Lending
                          Portfolio Valuations

                          Strategic Consultancy & Research
                          Financial Feasibilities
                          Highest and Best Use Studies
                          Market Research
                          Conceptual Advisory and Project Positioning Studies
                          Project Redevelopment/Repositioning Advisory
                          Investment Strategies – Acquisition and Disposal

                          Sales and Leasing
                          Commercial
                          Industrial
                          Residential
                          Retail

                          Property Management
                          Commercial
                          Mixed-Use
                          Residential

                          International Properties
                          London Off-Plan Residential
                          International Homes and Investments
                          International Relocations

OBSERVER - Dubai Residential Report Q2 2020 							                             19
Contact Us

Mena Head Office                                                                                            Bahrain Office
2503, Marina Plaza, Dubai Marina                                                                            Maz Business Centre
PO Box 283361, Dubai                                                                                        The Lagoon
United Arab Emirates                                                                                        Amwaj Island
Office: +9714 381 0200                                                                                      Bahrain
Fax: +9714 325 3359                                                                                         Office: +973 1603 0646
Email: uae.enquiry@chestertons.com                                                                          Email: bahrain@chestertons.com

Abu Dhabi Office                                                                                            Global Headquarters
Office No. 802, Tamouh Tower                                                                                40 Connaught Street
Building 12, Marina Square                                                                                  London, W2 2AB
Al Reem Island, PO Box 128983                                                                               United Kingdom
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Office: +9712 447 3100
Fax: +9712 441 6200                                                                                         Further offices across the UK, Europe
Email: abudhabi@chestertons.com                                                                             Asia Pacific, Africa and the Caribbean.

Disclaimer:

All articles and data presented herein is intended for information purposes and has been compiled from sources deemed reliable including the Valuations and Research De-
partment of Chestertons, sales and leasing staff, published data, and secondary sources. Though information is believed to be correct, material presented is subject to errors,
omissions, changes, or withdrawal without notice.

www.chestertons-mena.com
You can also read