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OIL INDUSTRY CHASING THE DREAM OF THE VISIONARY - EX-ONGC ...
OIL INDUSTRY CHASING
   THE DREAM OF THE VISIONARY
                                 2017

                                                    2022
  2010

        E&P Strategies to Cut
      Oil Import by 10% by 2022
                        August 12, 2017
     Gulmohar Hall, India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi

                                         Supported by

                                     A Seminar Organized by

Ex-ONGC Executives Welfare Association, New Delhi
OIL INDUSTRY CHASING THE DREAM OF THE VISIONARY - EX-ONGC ...
OIL INDUSTRY CHASING THE DREAM OF THE VISIONARY - EX-ONGC ...
India crude oil production and
India imports of crude oil
OIL INDUSTRY CHASING THE DREAM OF THE VISIONARY - EX-ONGC ...
Foreword

                           Jauhari Lal
                           President
                           Ex-ONGC Executives Welfare Association

It gives me great pleasure in greeting all the delegates, invited guests, chairpersons and Speakers of this
Seminar on E&P Strategies to cut oil import by 10% by 2022 on 12th August, 2017. It is for the 1st time that
Ex-ONGC Executives Welfare Association has organized such a program on this critical issue. It is said that
“Once ONGCian will always remain ONGCian” i.e. even after retirement from the service, they do not lose
touch from Oil industry but watch very closely the development taking place in the Industry.

Call given by the Honorable Prime Minister Shri. Narendra Modi ji at Urja Sangam at Vigyan Bhawan on
27th march, 2015 to cut Oil import by 10% by 2022 has become a sacred goal to achieve by all concerned.
In order to achieve this target, apart from Oil Industry other agencies engaged in service sector and non
conventional energy sector have also geared up.

India is importing about 80% of Oil to meet its domestic requirements and its financial implications had
been the focus of Government many times in formulations of its Annual Budget. Government had not left
to the Oil companies and others to achieve this goal but they have also prepared strategies as to how to
facilitate to achieve this by way of formulating new policies and other initiatives.

Minister of state, in charge of Petroleum and Natural Gas Shri. Dharmendra Pradhan while chairing a min-
isterial session on current economic strategies in Indian oil and Gas sector at the 22nd World Petroleum
Congress at Istanbul, Turkey pointed out that the energy consumption is expected to grow to almost double
by 2035 and India is the only country where the demand continuously rises for more than a decade. He
further mentioned the resolve of Prime Minister to cut oil import dependence by 10% by 2022. India is the
3rd largest consumer of Oil and Petroleum products.

I am confident that Articles contained in the Souvenir will be quiet informative, educative and interesting. I
would like to convey my thanks on behalf of Association to ONGC, OIL, OVL and other companies who have
supported this Seminar and publication of this Souvenir. Though all the members of our Executive commit-
tee had played their part for the success of the Seminar, I am personally thankful to Mr. Ashok Varma, Vice
President of the Association and Convener of this Seminar for involving himself from beginning to end to
ensure that each and every aspect is taken care properly for success of Seminar and also publications.

Jauhari Lal
OIL INDUSTRY CHASING THE DREAM OF THE VISIONARY - EX-ONGC ...
Contents
                                      Sl. Description                                                                                         Page
                                      No
Ex-ONGC Executives Welfare
Association                           1.    Message
Executive Committee
                                            D K Sarraf................................................................................................ 7
                                            Utpal Bora................................................................................................ 8
• Dr. Jauhari Lal
  Ex- Member / Director (HR)                S K Manglik.............................................................................................. 9
  President                                 B C Bora................................................................................................ 10
• A K Hazarika                              R S Sharma............................................................................................11
  Ex Director (On-shore)
                                      2.    Program Schedule................................................................................. 13
  Vice President
• Ashok Varma                         3.    Strategies of ONGC to cut import by 10% - Roadmap for future
  Ex Director (On-shore)                    (By Dinesh K Sarraf)............................................................................. 14
  Vice President
• K C Gupta                           4.    Towards reduction of import dependency of Oil and Gas by the year
  Ex-GGM (F&A)                              2022: OIL’s roadmap
  General Secretary                         (By Utpal Bora)...................................................................................... 19
• Ranjit Singh
                                      5.    Low Oil Price and India’s Import Reduction
  Ex-Chief Engg. ( Drilling)
                                            (By Narendra K Verma)......................................................................... 22
  Joint Secretary
• Shiv Dayal                          6.    Experience and future plans for 98/2
  Ex-DY. Manager (F)                        (By Alok Nandan)................................................................................... 26
  Treasurer
• Kanchan Kumar                       7.    Journey 2022 - Key Milestones to Cross By
  Ex-E.D. (Finance)                         (P Elango).............................................................................................. 27
  Chief Editor
                                      8.    Presenters............................................................................................. 28
Executive Members                     9.    Session Chairs & Panelists .................................................................. 30
                                      10.   Enhancing Oil and Gas Exploration in NE India
• B S Talwar
  Ex-ED (MM)                                (By B C Bora)......................................................................................... 32
• K N Khan                            11.   E&P Strategies to cut down the oil import by 10% by 2022
  Ex-Dy GM (Geol.)                          (By C R Prasad)..................................................................................... 34
• S K Bakshi
  Ex GM (Logistics)                   12.   Strategies for E&P to Reduce India’s Import Dependence
• Jaswant Singh                             (By R S Sharma).................................................................................... 39
  Ex-Manager (P& A)
• R K Mehta
                                      13.   E&P Strategy to cut oil imports by 10% by 2022: ONGC’s Imperatives
  Ex-Chief Manager (HR)                     (By T K Sengupta)................................................................................. 42
• H S Chauhan                         14.   Comments on draft National Energy Policy
  Ex-Chief Manager (HR)                     (By M R Pasrija)..................................................................................... 47
• Mrs Meena Kapoor
  Ex-Manager (HR)                     15.   Maximizing the domestic production of oil and gas and supplementing
                                            the energy requirement of the country from other resources
Views expressed in this publication         (By D N Awasthi).................................................................................... 49
are those of the authors
OIL INDUSTRY CHASING THE DREAM OF THE VISIONARY - EX-ONGC ...
Participating Companies
OIL INDUSTRY CHASING THE DREAM OF THE VISIONARY - EX-ONGC ...
Message

                               Dinesh K Sarraf
                               CMD, ONGC

At the very outset, I must congratulate the Ex-ONGC Executives’ Welfare Association for bringing out
a timely publication focused on the one of the most relevant topic in the domestic hydrocarbon sector
in recent times - that of import reduction. It is further encouraging to know that seminar dedicated
to the same issue is also being organized for the larger benefit of the energy industry professionals.

Our country today is positioned at a crucial juncture as what we decide today and how we act subse-
quently on those decisions will have a lasting impact on the growth that the country will witness in the
years to come. The political for growth that the country possesses is enormous and, arguably, next to
none in the global arena in terms of human resources pool, talent and resourcefulness.

In this context, the country’s high degree of import dependence, particularly in respect of crude oil,
becomes a matter of serious concern as it has the potential to constrain our development efforts. Fo-
rex outgo on crude oil over the last 10 years cumulatively stands at close a trillion dollars. Imports of
natural gas is also on the rise. Even accounting for the steady growth of renewables and improvement
in fuel or energy efficiency, demand for both oil and gas will register strong gains year on year, at least
in the medium term.

The Hon’ble Prime Minister’s call to achieve a 10% reduction in hydrocarbon imports by 2022 is a
landmark announcement and depicts a proactive and direct approach to addressing a longstanding
problem. ONGC is congnizant of its responsibility in this mission and, toward that end, has devised a
roadmap to align its short, medium and long term production strategies with the 10% import reduc-
tion initiative of the Government.

I think the next few years in the domestic oil and gas sector are going to be quite exciting and full of
possibilities. Even with the persistence of low oil and gas prices the sector remains buoyant and, unlike
globally, investment has not slowed down. The Hon’ble PM’s vision of 10 percent import reduction
provides a further shot of motivation and drive to the industry as a whole.

I am certain the Seminar will be well attended and prove to be immensely useful to all the participants.
I wish it will all the very best.

Dinesh K Sarraf

                                                                                                              9
OIL INDUSTRY CHASING THE DREAM OF THE VISIONARY - EX-ONGC ...
Message

                                 Utpal Bora
                                 CMD, Oil India Ltd.

     It gives me immense pleasure to learn that the Ex ONGC Executive Welfare Association
     (EOEWA), Delhi is holding a seminar with the theme ‘E&P Strategies to cut down Oil import
     by 10% by 2022 at New Delhi on 12th August 2017.

     The Seminar will address an extremely relevant topic of national priority and will involve
     interaction and sharing of views of oil and gas sector professionals, past and present. The
     experience and expertise of members of EOEWA who, over the years, have contributed
     significantly to the growth of ONGC as well as the country’s oil industry, will be one of the
     key feature in the deliberations.

     It is also hertwarming to know that EOEWA would be commenmorating the occassion with
     the publication of a souvenir.

     My compliments to EOEWA Delhi in their endeavor and an confident that the event will
     witness very productive interaction and exchange of ideas.

     I wish the seminar all the success.

     Utpal Bora

10
OIL INDUSTRY CHASING THE DREAM OF THE VISIONARY - EX-ONGC ...
Message

                           S K Manglik
                           Former CMD, ONGC

I am glad to know that Ex-ONGC Executives Welfare Association is organising a seminar on E&P
Strategies to cut oil import by 10% by 2022.

E&P companies in India are striving hard to increase production of oil and gas. Improving recovery
factors is an area of focus. Technological improvements in drilling and subsurface technology have
enabled E&P industries to locate and produce bypassed oil .

It is now time for India to focus on oil production from non-conventional resources . In addition,
there is need for E&P companies to also focus on energy resources other than above.

Some of these would possibly be discussed during the seminar.

My good wishes to the organisers and participants.

S K Manglik

                                                                                                     11
OIL INDUSTRY CHASING THE DREAM OF THE VISIONARY - EX-ONGC ...
Message

                                B C Bora
                                Former CMD, ONGC

     I compliment EOEWA for organizing an one day workshop on 12th August 2017 on the
     theme, “E&P Strategy to cut down oil imports by 10 percent by 2022”, and for bringing out
     a Souvenir on the same theme for the Annual Day function of the Association scheduled
     for 19th August 2017.

     With the 5 to 6 percent projected future annual growth in demand for oil in the business
     as usual scenario, achievement of this ambitious target will necessarily require a multi di-
     mensional strategy with strict, well defined and measurable mile stones extending to all
     the components, such as conservation, efficiency improvements, conversions, renewable
     energy enhancement and increased domestic production of oil and gas, amongst others.
     These efforts, which obviously have to be fine tuned from time to time as we go along,
     have very high significance, as very appropriately indicated by prime ministerModiji, in
     defining the possible road map to achieve 50 percent reduction in imports by 2030.

     I am more than sure that the workshop and the publications in the souvenir will help to
     provide useful inputs to the government to have a re-look at the strategy to plug the loop
     holes, if any.

     I convey my best wishes to the organizers.

     B C Bora

12
Message

                           R S Sharma
                           Former CMD, ONGC

I am glad to learn that Ex-ONGC Executives’ Welfare Association is bringing out a special
issue of its Souvenir on the occasion of 61st ONGC Day.

I am further delighted that taking a national call for reducing import dependency for Oil
& Gas, they are also organizing a one day seminar on the subject on 12 Aug-17. I am sure
this forum will generate thought provoking deliberations and get views of eminent industry
officials and experts to find optimal solutions to enable the national economy to meet its
energy needs and grow constantly at the intended GDP growth rate in two digits.

I am pleased to convey my greetings and best wishes to the Association for all these laud-
able endeavors.

R S Sharma

                                                                                             13
14
E&P strategies to cut oil import by 10% by 2022
                  Seminar by Ex-ONGC Executives Welfare Association
                     India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi
                              Saturday, August 12, 2017

                                           PROGRAM

0900 - 0930       Registration & Tea

0930– 1100        Inaugural session
    0930– 0935    Welcome Address - Dr. Jauhari Lal, President of Association
    0935– 0950    Presentation on the theme–Shri R K Sinha, Chief Executive and Technical Officer to DGH
    0950– 1010    Plans and Strategy of OVL Address –Shri N K Verma, MD OVL
    1010– 1030    Plans and Strategy of OIL Address –Shri Utpal Bora, CMD-OIL
    1030– 1050    Inaugural Address –Shri D K Sarraf, CMD-ONGC, Chief Guest
    1050– 1100    Vote of Thanks –Shri A K Hazarika, Vice President of Association.

1100– 1130        Tea

1130 – 1300       1st Technical Session - Chair Person: Shri V P Mahawar, Director (Onshore) ONGC Ltd.
    1130– 1150    Strategies and new technologies adopted –Shri Sudhir Mathur, CEO Cairn India
    1150– 1210    Plans and Prospects of HOEC–Shri P. Elango MD, HOEC
    1210– 1230    Enhanced Oil Recovery–Shri Garud Sridhar, Schlumberger
    1230– 1240    Questions and Answers
    1240– 1300    Chair person’s observations and remarks

1300 – 1400       Lunch

1400 – 1530       2nd Technical Session – Chair Person : Shri T K Sengupta, Director (Offshore ) ONGC Ltd.
    1400 – 1420   Experience and future plans for 98/2– Shri Alok Nandan Executive Director, ONGC
    1420 – 1440   Deep water technologies and strategies –Shri Ravi Addala, Baker Hughes - GE
    1440 – 1500   Why India would not regret oil import in the long run–Shri Deepak Mahurkar, PWC
    1500 – 1510   Questions and Answers
    1510 – 1525   Chair Person’s observations and remarks

1525-1550         Tea

1550 – 1700       3rd Technical Session: Chair Person : Shri Shashi Shankar, Director (T&FS) ONGC Ltd.
    1550 – 1605   Shri Ajay Kumar, MD BPRL
    1605 – 1620   Shri Chandra Shekhar, Director OIL
    1620 – 1635   Shri Amit Khera, Partner, Mckinsey & Co.
    1635 – 1645   Questions and Answers
    1645 – 1700   Chair Person’s observations and remarks

1700 – 1800       Panel Discussion - Chair Person Shri S K Manglik,Former CMD, ONGC
    1700 – 1710   Shri B C Bora, Former CMD, ONGC & OIL
    1710 – 1720   Shri C R Prasad, Former CMD, GAIL
    1720 – 1730   Shri R S Sharma, Former CMD, ONGC
    1730 – 1740   Shri Atul Chandra, Former MD, OVL
    1740 – 1750   Shri R S Butola, Former CMD, IOC.
    1750 – 1800   Chair Person’s observations and remarks

1800              Vote of Thanks Ashok Varma Vice-President of Association

                                                                                                           13
Strategies of ONGC to cut import by
10% - Roadmap for future
By Dinesh K Sarraf

                                           He has experience of over three        of extra ordinary growth of com-
                                           and half decades in the oil and        pany and strategic approach to oil
                                           gas industry, having started his oil   and gas exploration and produc-
                  Dinesh K Sarraf          and gas career in Oil India Ltd. He    tion. In the present environment
                  CMD, ONGC                joined ONGC in 1991 and handled        when global oil and gas prices
                                           various key assignments at corpo-      have plummeted, ONGC under his
  Dinesh K Sarraf, 59, is the Chairman &   rate offices. He was elevated to the   leadership is strongly emphasising
  Managing Director of Oil and Natural     post of Director (Finance) in ONGC     on adoption of the best operation-
  Gas Corporation Ltd (ONGC), India’s      Videsh in 2005 where he served till    al & cost practices and appropri-
  most valuable Maharatna public           2007. During this period, ONGC         ate oil and gas technologies, for
  sector enterprise and one of the most    Videsh made significant acqui-         realisation of greater operational
  premier E&P companies in the world.      sitions in Syria, Brazil, Colombia,    efficiencies. As Chairman, ONGC
  ONGC is one of the most valuable         Venezuela, Cuba, Egypt and Myan-       Group of Companies, he primarily
  companies of India andone of the         mar. In December 2007, he joined       focused on building a diversified
  Fortune’s Most Admired companies in      back ONGC as Director (Finance).       group portfolio of Oil and Gas
  the world.                                                                      Exploration, Production, Refining,
                                           In 2011, Mr. Sarraf went back          Pipelines, Petrochemicals, Power,
  Mr. Sarraf is also the Chairman of       to ONGC Videsh assuming the            Renewables and Infrastructure
  ONGC Videsh Ltd, operating across        charge of Managing Director. As        development. With a focussed ap-
  17 countries, Chairman of Manga-         MD he transformed ONGC Videsh          proach, ONGC’s all first integration
  lore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd       into an aggressive growth engine       projects have been commissioned
  (MRPL) and four other ONGC Group         for ONGC Group by clinching            and are performing remarkably
  companies (OPaL- ONGC Petro-addi-        many high value deals within           well.
  tions Ltd, OMPL – ONGC Mangalore         a short span of time. He was
  Petrochemicals Ltd, MSEZ- Mangalore      instrumental in several oil and        Under his leadership, ONGC has
  SEZ Ltd, and OTPC- ONGC Tripura          gas acquisitions in Mozambique,        committed itself to the develop-
  Power Company Ltd).                      Brazil and Azerbaijan by ONGC          ment of the country’s deepwater oil
                                           Videsh to ensure energy security       and gas resources with an invest-
  Mr. Sarraf graduated in Commerce         for the country. In March, 2014, he    ment of over $5 billion, a testament
  from Shri Ram College of Com-            joined back ONGC as its Chairman       to his strategic decision-making in
  merce of Delhi University and did        & Managing Director. As CMD,           pursuit of domestic energy security.
  his post-graduation from the same        ONGC he has been focussing             ONGC’s foray into the deepwaters
  University. He is an associate member    primarily on augmentation of Oil       is all set to considerably reduce
  of the Institute of Cost and Works       and Gas production from domestic       hydrocarbon import dependence
  Accountants of India and the Institute   assets.                                and help the nation move closer to
  of Company Secretaries of India.         Mr. D K Sarraf, is the driving force   being a gas based economy.

1. Energy Demand - India                   mover of growth, the country’s en-           mestically produced crude oil, our
                                           ergy demand has also registered an           imports have risen, and at a great-
Energy is a vital input to any coun-       annual increase of 5.9 percent dur-          er pace (CAGR 7.4 percent), in the
try’s developmental goals and eco-         ing last 10 years.                           same time-period. As a result, our
nomic aspirations. Indian economy                                                       import dependency for petroleum
has grown faster than any other            In terms of oil requirements, con-           has been increasing with the rate
big economy of the world during            sumption of petroleum products               of growth of the economy we are
last few years. Its rate of growth         has recorded an annualised 5 per-            aspiring, Make-in-India initiative of
has been 7% average during last 10         cent demand growth. However, on              the Hon’ble Prime Minister of India
years. Energy being the basic prime        account of limited availability of do-       and our country’s per-capita energy
consumption being less than one-        4. Promoting alternate fuels/ re-          mid-2014 and the emergence of a
third of the global average, India’s       newables                                consensus of a ‘lower for longer’
hydrocarbon demand in the dec-          5. Improvement in Refinery pro-            outlook on oil prices at least in the
ades to come is slated to increase         cesses                                  medium term, ONGC has adopt-
even at a faster pace.                  But the development of this unique         ed a counter-cyclical approach to
                                        chapter in our domestic oil and gas        projects and investment plans. Not
2. Call for 10% import                  landscape has taken place even as          only has it sustained its capex lev-
reduction                               the oil and gas markets are reeling        els at around the same levels (Rs
                                        from a persistent period of low oil        28k-30k Cr) for the last three years,
The growing concern around this         prices. Global oil and gas compa-          it has also embarked upon, argua-
increasing dependence on ener-          nies have responded to this sus-           bly, one of its most aggressive and
gy imports found articulation dur-      tained bear market through deep            focused period of portfolio consol-
ing the Urja Sangam held on 27th        capex cuts, aggressive layoffs and         idation through significant project
March, 2015 at New Delhi, when the      portfolio optimization through di-         decisions.
Hon’ble Prime Minister of our coun-     vestment of non- core assets. As per
try set a target of 10 percent reduc-   certain estimates, total capex cuts        It must be noted that most of
tion in our hydrocarbon imports         on account of this depressed mar-          ONGC’s      domestic     production
dependence by 2022. It marks a          ket is to the tune of a trillion dollars   comes from a mature portfolio of
remarkable shift in attitude towards    over a period of 5 years. A period of      fields that are of at least 30 years
a longstanding problem of the do-       low oil prices bodes well for an im-       vintage. These fields have crossed
mestic energy landscape – from          port-dependent country like ours:          their plateau and entered the natu-
reactive to proactive. It was impor-    forex outgo on account of crude            ral decline phase since past several
tant that higher reliance on external   imports dropped by over 50% from           years which is a natural phenome-
energy sources seriously imperils       around $143 bn in FY’2013-14 to            non in the producing life of oil &
the country’s energy security which     under $70 bn in FY’2016-17. How-           gas fields. A proactive approach to
consequently constrains and affects     ever, when it comes to bolstering          targeting production enhancement
our growth outlook as well.             energy security there is no replace-       was the need of the hour – one
                                        ment for higher indigenous sup-            that not only ensures the relevance
In order to take this vision forward,   plies as it mitigates to a great extent    and preeminent stature of ONGC
Hon’ble Minister of Petroleum &         the vulnerabilities that arise out of      is maintained in the future energy
Natural Gas constituted a com-          the country’s exposure to volatility       landscape of the country but also
mittee under the Chairmanship of        in the external or international mar-      caters to the larger goal of deliver-
Additional Secretary, MoPNG on          kets. This makes the Hon’ble PM’s          ing on the OM’s goal of 10 percent
“Preparing a roadmap to reduce          vision statement of import reduc-          import reduction.
import dependency in energy by          tion, or greater self-sufficiency in
10% by 2021-22”.Subsequently, Re-       hydrocarbon, a remarkably fore-            Hence, a two pronged strategy has
port of the Committee on Roadm-         sighted one – one that looks factors       been chalked out by ONGC man-
ap to reduce import dependency          in the larger picture even as market       agement not only to sustain but
in Energy by 10% by 2021-22 was         conditions did not necessarily war-        also increase production of crude
prepared in consultation with vari-     rant such a mission.                       oil and natural gas i.e through rede-
ous stakeholders and circulated in                                                 velopment of existing brown fields
end – 2016.The committee estimat-       3. Roadmap of ONGC –                       and monetisation of new reserves
ed that India’s import dependency       Augmentation of Oil and                    through development of new fields.
on oil and gas can be reduced by        Gas production
10% by 2021-22 as compared to                                                      4. Projects for monetisation
the business-as-usual scenario by       As the country’s premier Oil and           of reserves – a snapshot
following a five-pronged strategy       Gas Company and a Maharatna
on reduction of imports if the as-      PSU, ONGC is well seized of the            4.1   During last three financial
sociated initiatives required to be     priorities of the domestic energy                years (FY’15 to FY’17), a total
taken are implemented timely and        scenario and the urgency required                of 15 mega development pro-
required inter-ministerial synergy is   to address the issue of stagnating               jects (including 8 brownfield
accomplished effectively. The five-     domestic output, grossly insuffi-                re-development projects and
pronged strategy encapsulates,          cient in the face of our rapid energy            7 greenfield development
1. Increasing production of domes-      demand growth. IEA projects more                 projects), were completed
   tic crude oil and natural gas        than doubling of the country oil re-             with a total investment of Rs.
2. Enhancing energy efficiency and      quirements and more than tripling                54,373 Crore. The envisaged
   conservation                         of its gas needs by the year 2040.               production from these pro-
3. Demand substitution                  Despite the crash in oil prices in               jects is expected to be around

                                                                                                                     15
(gas), while first oil is project-
                                                                                ed to realize in mid-2020.

                                                                          4.4   Although approving all these
                                                                                projects at a time when the oil
                                                                                and gas prices are so low was
                                                                                quite challenging but it was
                                                                                possible with the support of
                                                                                all the stakeholders. ONGC
                                                                                is of the view that this is the
                                                                                best time for developing oil
                                                                                and gas projects for long term
                                                                                sustainability. The price of
                                                                                oil field services, equipment,
                                                                                LSTK costs are low due to
                                                                                lower development activities
                                                                                globally in E&P. At the same
                                                                                time, more reliable vendors
                                                                                are now willing to implement
                                                                                ONGC’s major offshore pro-
                                                                                jects ensuring faster project
                                                                                implementation with lower
      87 MMT of oil and 56 BCM of      the Board with a budget of               risk of time over-runs. It is also
      gas.                             over 34,000 Crore. This is the           expected that that Govern-
                                       highest-ever investment in a             ment would review gas prices
      These projects contributed       single project in the history            and would eventually dereg-
      about 22% to ONGC’s oil and      of ONGC. This decision was               ulate gas pricing and market-
      16% to ONGC gas production       taken at a time when most of             ing. Government now fully
      from nominated blocks dur-       the global major E&P compa-              understands that the current
      ing FY’17(Oil 4.985 MMT, Gas     nies were cutting Capex on               gas prices are not viable and
      3.537 BCM).                      new projects due to subdued              ONGC incurs significant un-
                                       oil and gas prices. Once op-             der-recoveries in its gas busi-
4.2   Besides above, 17 more de-       erational, this project will not         ness.
      velopment projects with a        only significantly bolster the
      capital investment of over Rs.   country’s energy security but      4.5   Some of the projects have
      76,000 Crore were approved       would also have a compound-              already started giving pro-
      during last three years which    ing effect in terms of contri-           duction, increasing our gas
      are under various stages of      bution to Indian exchequer,              production by about 5% in
      execution.These       projects   employment          generation,          2016-17 over the past year
      would enable monetisation        technological breakthrough               and gas production is expect-
      of about 69.24 million tonnes    and opening a new avenue to              ed to go up by another 10%
      of crude oil and 118.44 BCM      Deep water production in In-             during 2017-18. As a result
      of natural gas. The collective   dian waters.                             of progressive completion of
      production from these pro-                                                various projects, significant
      jects is expected to be 22.24    This project would monetise              jump of 11% in Gas produc-
      MMT of O+OEG during the          45.49 MMT of crude oil and               tion has already been seen
      financial year 2020-21.This      25.87 BCM of natural gas with            during Q1 of FY’18 vis-à-vis
      amounts to 50% of crude oil      annual peak production of                Q1 of FY’17 .
      and natural gas production       15.57 million cubic meter of
      of ONGC from its nomination      gas per day (MMSCMD) and           4.6   The company is also now ac-
      blocks during FY’17.             78,000 barrels of crude oil per          tively working on monetising
                                       day, which is about 24% and              the Kutch-Saurashtra discov-
4.3   Most significant among these     17% of ONGC’s current (FY’17)            eries where we have made
      projects is the development      gas and crude production re-             significant progress in terms
      of fields under Cluster 2 of     spectively from the nominat-             of accumulating several dis-
      our deepwater block in east-     ed blocks. Production from               coveries to gather confidence
      ern offshore – KG-DWN 98/2       the project is expected to               that these can be monetised
      – which was approved by          commence from March 2020                 in a clustered approach. We

16
expect this to initiate pro-
      duction in next 3 years. This
      would be the eighth basin
      of India to start production.
      Cauvery basin was the sev-
      enth (last) to start production,
      more than 30 years back.

5. Project strategy aimed
towards 10% import
reduction

To achieve the goal of 10 percent
import reduction, ONGC, on its
part, has devised a roadmap to
align its short, medium and long
term production strategies with the
10% import reduction initiative of
the Government. Adopting a more
proactive approach, the Long Term
Oil and Gas Profile (LTOGP) of the
company has been revisedto align
with the primary target of reducing
the country’s import dependence.
“Long-Term Oil and Gas Profiles
– 2017 (LTOGP-2017)”, have been
derived out of an exhaustive re-
view of all current operations and
future plans for ONGC owned and
operated fields in keeping with the
present production scenario and
as per the predicted/ envisaged
profile.

Strong focus is now accorded to
all past un-monetized discoveries,
current exploration successes, on-
going projects and upcoming plans
of development in terms of their
contribution to meeting the target          proval on these hydrocarbon             production potential is being es-
of import reduction.                        discoveries is already taken and        timated along with formulation
                                            Oil & Gas profile in this category      of the conceptual development
ONGC has 577 hydrocarbon discov-            is generated based on ongoing/          plan/ feasibility. It is expected
eries as on 1st October, 2016. Most         approved schemes and released           that investment approvals would
of these are already in production          locations.                              be obtained in respect of these
and action to monetize the remain-       c. Concept-1: Discoveries where            discoveries generally by 2019.
ing discoveries are at different stag-      scheme/ investment is under          A time frame has been fixed for
es of implementation depending              approval and it is expected that     approval of development plan for
on the nature of discovery.                 investment approval in respect       each un-monetized discovery. The
These discoveries have now been             of these schemes would be ob-        exercise has addressed monetiza-
classified into various categories, as      tained within calendar year 2017.    tion plan of all the discoveries of
stated below,                            d. Concept-2: Discoveries where         ONGC, barring about 42 discoveries
a. Base profile: Already monetised          scheme/ investment is under          which are isolated/far from existing
   and in production discoveries            conceptualization and it is ex-      infrastructure, or have very low vol-
   and production profile is gen-           pected that investment approv-       umes or are located in difficult ar-
   erated on existing hydrocarbon           al in respect of these schemes       eas. These are categorized under
   wells inventory, as on 01.04.2016.       would be obtained by 2018.           Concept-3. Further, efforts are un-
b. Firm Activity: Investment ap-         e. Concept-3: Discoveries for which     derway to explore the possibility of

                                                                                                                   17
moving Concept-3 fields into high-   represents production from our           and more complex. ONGC like oth-
er categories.                       legacy and existing streams – base       er global majors is managing sever-
                                     – with the rest depicting new oil        al projects at a time which need to
Once on stream, projects under       and gas additions).                      be prioritised not only on financial
Concept 1, 2 & 3 would produce oil                                            goals and risks but also increasingly
and gas with peak oil of 6.5 MMT     It is pertinent to mention here          based on the availability of scarce
during 2023-24 and 18.3 BCM gas      that work along these formulated         resources like engineering talent.
during 2025-26.                      pathways must also move expe-            To overcome this, ONGC has set up
                                     ditiously in order to capitalize on      a dedicated Project Monitoring Of-
As per the envisaged plan of pro-    the reduction in the service and         fice (PMO) with modern tools and
ject advancement through the         operating costs prevailing as a re-      hardware to monitor projects across
five year period of 2017-22 tar-     sult of the cost deflation in the oil-   organisation based on Stage Gate
geting the overarching goal of       field services in the downturn. The      concept. Decision checkpoints, or
minimizing the country’s import      window to do the same is brief.          stage gates, mark the end of formal
dependence, ONGC’s oil and gas       Eventually, once accomplished,           project phases and to move from
production in the terminal year      these projects will testify what we      one stage to the next.
2021-22 stands at 27.12 MMT and      have always championed – that
42.71 BCM respectively, of which     the long-term gains from a prom-         Diversified portfolio of oil and gas
contribution from new oil and gas    ising oil projects will finally always   projects coupled with value addi-
accruing from ongoing develop-       outweigh the short-term pains of         tion projects with a focus on mission
ment schemes and planned/pro-        a downcycle.                             of “Make-in-India” would not only
posed projects contribute 52%                                                 bring constant revenue streams to
and 69% respectively. Projected      As activity ramps up and more oil        the balance sheet of the company
production of our future domestic    and gas production moves to fron-        but would also position ONGC as a
oil and gas portfolio is also rep-   tier and unconventional resource         Major Integrated Energy company
resented for reference (sea-blue     areas, projects are becoming larger      in near future.

                   Make in India - Oil and Gas Sector

18
Towards reduction of import
dependency of Oil and Gas by the
year 2022: OIL’s roadmap
By Utpal Bora

The nation has been relentlessly        ited(OIL) is mandated to play a piv-
pursuing E&P efforts towards find-      otal role in achieving this target by
ing and developing hydrocarbon          the strategy of increasing domestic
within the country for reducing its     oil &gas production.As part of the
dependency on imported oil and          strategy OIL has prepared a road                        Utpal Bora
gas. Further impetus to these ef-       map with its present portfolio of                       CMD, (OIL)
forts was received when, during         existing domestic fields/assets by
the inauguration of ‘Urja Sangam        adopting a number of key initiatives    Sri Utpal Borais the Chairman and
2015’, Hon’ble Prime Minister high-     for achieving the goal of reducing      Managing Director of Oil India
lighted the current import depend-      the dependency on import in ener-       Limited (OIL), India’s second largest
ency of the nation and emphasized       gy by 10% by 2021-22.                   National E&P Company.
on working together to achieve
energy security of the country. All     History of Oil India Limited            Prior to taking up leadership of
stakeholders were urged to in-                                                  OIL, Sri Bora has had a rich and
crease the domestic production          OIL’s legacy is deeply rooted to        varied experience of over 33
of oil and gas to reduce import         the pioneering efforts of oil ex-       years in the E&P Sector. Sri Bora
dependence by 10% by the year           ploration in India- dating back to      has served in various capacities
2022, when India celebrates its 75      the 19th century - in the dense         at ONGC Ltd. including OVL,the
years of independence. By achiev-       jungles of Upper Assam in the ex-       international branch of ONGC. He
ing the target, the citizens would      tremenorth-eastern cornerof our         had been Executive Director- As-
pay a true homage to the freedom        country. The first commercial dis-      set Manager of ONGC’s Mehsana
fighters who sacrificed their lives     covery of crude oil in the country      Asset and is credited with turning
for the sake of the country.            was made in 1889 at Digboi, by          around ONGC’s highest produc-
                                        the Assam Railway and Trading Co.       ing onshore Asset and steering it
For taking this vision forward in a     Ltd. Albeit with a very low produc-     towards newer heights. Under his
highly focussed way, a committee        tion, Digboi still retains the dis-     leadership the Asset received the
on “Preparing a roadmap to reduce       tinction of being the world’s oldest    Best Onshore Award of ONGC in
the dependency on import in ener-       continuously producing oilfield.        2015. At OVL he was specifical-
gy by 10% by 2021-22” was consti-       Subsequently the AOC (Assam Oil         ly engaged in framing of policy
tuted by Hon‘ble Minister of State      Company) was formed in 1899 to          directives and its implementation,
(I/C), P&NG.The committee has           look after the running of the oil       co-ordination with the NOC of
alreadychalked out a five-pronged       business in this area. In 1953, the     Venezuela, PDVSA, under projects
strategyto achieve this goal which-     first oil discovery of independent      like PetroCarabobo and San
broadly comprises of increasing         India was made at Nahorkatiya in        Cristobal.
domestic production of oil and          the state of Assam,very near to
gas, promoting energy efficiency        Digboi,which was followed bydis-        Sri Bora holds a degree of Bache-
and conservation measures, giv-         covery of oil at Moran in1956. In       lor of Technology in Petroleum En-
ing thrust on demand substitution,      order to ensure systematic devel-       gineering from the prestigious ISM,
capitalizing untapped potential         opment and production of the dis-       Dhanbad, an Advanced Manage-
in biofuels and other alternate fu-     covered prospects of Nahorkatiya        ment Certificate from IIM, Lucknow
els/ renewables and implementing        and Moran and to increase the           and has completed a Leadership
measures for refinery process im-       pace of exploration in northeast-       Development Programme from
provements.                             ern India, Oil India Private Ltd. was   ISB, Hyderabad. Besides being an
                                        incorporated in 1959. It was reg-       avid reader, Sri Bora enjoys cricket
Being a major E&P player in the In-     istered as a Rupee Company with         and movies.
dia’s upstream sector, Oil India Lim-   two-third shares owned by Assam
Oil Company (AOC) / Burmah Oil         ya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Myanmar        a massive development drilling
Company (BOC) and one-third by         and Bangladesh.                         campaign in newly discovered
the Government of India (GOI). By                                              prospectsand infill drilling under
a subsequent agreement in 1961,        OIL’s Presence in the Do-               its plans for systematicredevelop-
GOI and BOC transformed OIL to         mesticUpstream Sector                   ment of its mature fields. Addition-
a Joint Venture Company (JVC)                                                  ally, OIL has been steadily making
with equal partnership.In 1981, OIL    OIL acreage in the Northeast com-       new discoveries in its operational
became a wholly owned Govern-          prises of twenty nominated PMLs         area. During the period 2009-10 to
ment of India enterprise and the       and threenominated PELs.Though          2015-16 there have been 37 dis-
management of Digboi oilfields         OIL is operator in most of the ar-      coveries by OIL in the Northeast
changed hands from the erstwhile       eas, a small oil and gas field in       out of which 40% have been in the
AOC to OIL. Although initially con-    Arunachal Pradesh is being oper-        prolific Eocene Formation. Addi-
fined to the north-eastern region      ated by a Joint Venture in which        tional development locations are
of the country, the Company grew       OIL has participating interest.         expected to be drilled till FY’22 in
into a strong fully integrated E&P     Apart from the Northeast, OIL has       newly discovered areas.
Company and spread its activities      two nominated PMLs in Rajasthan
to different Basins of India and       from where it is currently produc-      Exploratory drilling of New
abroad.                                ing heavy oil andalso producing         Prospects
                                       gas since 1996. In addition to its      Exploration activities constitute
OIL was granted Miniratna sta-         producing assets, the exploration       identification of new prospects
tus in October, 1997 and subse-        acreages of OIL include nine ac-        in new area and identification of
quently became a schedule “A”          tive NELP blocks spread over India,     new prospects in existing areas. In
Company in July, 2004. OIL joined      including a Block each in KG Basin      north-eastern India, a substantial
the elite Navratna club in April       and Mizoram and;a Pre NELP JV           inventory of exploratory locations
2010, thereby gaining greater          (Dirok). During 2016-17, OIL has        currently stand released for drill-
functional autonomy. Today OIL’s       produced 3.277 MMT oil and 2.936        ing. On-goinggeo-scientific studies
core competencies are in the up-       BCM gas.                                are expected to identify additional
stream and midstream petroleum                                                 prospects to be probed by explor-
business, especially in E&P and        Key initiatives & road map              atory drilling.
pipeline technology.The Com-           to achieve target oil and
pany owns and operates a trunk         gas production                          However, a substantial part of the
crude oil pipeline in the North-                                               Northeast is covered by forests and
east for transportation of crude       As per the projected oil & gas          national parks/ sanctuaries. Forest
oil produced by OIL and ONGC           production profile, OIL will be re-     De-reservation approvals and Wild
in the region to feed three refin-     quired to achieve 7.25 per cent         Life Clearancesarebeing pursued
eries. The Company continues re-       increase in oil production and          to obtain environmental clearances
verse pumping of imported crude        30.4 per cent increase in gas pro-      to drill these locations.Additional-
for IOCL to Bongaigaon refinery        duction by the end of 2021-22           ly, approval of grant of leases from
since 2003 through its existing        from its 2014-15 level of produc-       Government authorities is being
Barauni-Bongaigaon Trunk pipe-         tion (overall ~18.1% increase in        followed up in an expeditious man-
line section.OIL also holds busi-      O+OEG). In order to achieve the         ner so that planned operations can
ness stakes in the hydrocarbon         targeted levels OIL has prepared a      be carried out.
sector viz., Numaligarh Refinery       road map with the present portfo-
Limited, Brahmaputra Cracker and       lio of existing domestic fields/as-     Certain areas within OIL’s oper-
Polymer limited and Duliajan –         sets by adopting a number of key        ational area are poorly covered
Numaligarh Pipeline Limited.           initiatives for achieving the goal of   by seismic data due to surface
                                       reducing the dependency on im-          logistics constraints. Some are-
With its operational headquarters in   port in energy by 10% by 2021-22.       as lie close to discovered oil and
Duliajan, Assam,the main operating     The thrust of these initiatives are     gas fields and in the vicinity of
and producing areas of the com-        in the Company’s domestic oil and       the frontal Naga Thrust. These
pany, at present, are in Assam and     gas producing hubs in the North-        areas are envisaged to have high
Arunachal Pradesh. Today apart         east and Rajasthan.                     potential for the presence of hy-
from its presence in the Northeast,                                            drocarbon prospects and explora-
Rajasthan, KG Basin and participa-     Development drilling Campaign           tion success of these locations is
tion in a number of NELP blocks in     Enhancement of oil and gas pro-         expected to add to the oil and gas
Rest of India, OILhas anexpanding      duction is expected from the Com-       production potential in the North-
global portfolio with presence in      pany’s portfolio of existing reser-     east. By systematic planning and
Russia, USA, Venezuela, Gabon, Lib-    voirs. OIL has plans to undertake       deployment of optimal resourc-

20
es these areas are planned to be            wellbore damage.                         presentin OIL’s major producing
covered by 2D seismic in order to         • Gravel pack campaign to counter          fields and to tap thisgas poten-
optimise drilling campaigns.                sand ingression.                         tial,limitations in evacuation and
                                          • Installation of ESPs and gas lifts       producing facilities arebeing
Redevelopment of Mature fields              are being carried out on a regu-         ramped up bythe completion of
Some major oilfields located in the         lar basis.                               under construction pipelines and
Northeast in OIL’s portfolio were         • On-going studies for Chemical            additional wells.
discovered way back in 1950s and            EOR and Carbonated Water In-           • Recent gasdiscoveries in far
1960s. Makum-NorthHapjanis an               jection.                                 flung areas within OIL’s opera-
oilfield presently contributing sub-      • Plans for full field scale heavy oil     tional area will be monetized by
stantially to the Company’s pro-            development in Rajasthan.                construction of GGS and pipe-
duction and had been discovered                                                      lines for increase in gas produc-
in 1995. Apart from in-house stud-        New Surface Production facili-             tion potential.
ies, to prolong plateau production        ties / debottlenecking of existing       • In Rajasthan, the gas produc-
and to increase the recovery factor,      facilities                                 tion potential has been en-
the field is being studied under a                                                   hanced with the recently drilled
collaborative effort of OIL and Uni-      • OIL has initiated a number of            development wells as well as
versity of Houston, USA.Implemen-           projects for creating surface in-        successful workover campaign.
tation of recommendations from              frastructures for production and         Effortsare being made to en-
the study is expected to enhance            transportation of oil which in-          hance the sale of gas through
production, identify and provide            cludes construction of Group             new contracts to overcome con-
tangible improvementto existing             Gathering Stations (GGS), con-           straints of limitation of gas pro-
set-up of surface facilities to re-         struction of a number of oil and         duction due to lesseroff-take by
movebottlenecks in order to im-             gas pipelines to connect the far         consumers than the contractual
prove performance and arrest the            flung installations; construction        quantum.
decline.Geo-cellular and dynamic            of Secondary Tank Farm (STF)
model of the reservoirsare also             and capacity augmentation of an        All statutory clearances are being
being revisited for optimizing field        existing tank farm.                    pursued vigorously,with necessary
development.                              • An initiative to carry out Pro-        support from appropriate authori-
                                            duced Water Re-injection (PWRI)        ties / statutory bodies,and work be-
The over hundred year old Digboi            is also being envisaged to stra-       ing monitored closely so that all the
field, is also being studied in techni-     tegically manage increasing            projects can be completed within
cal collaboration with M/s Belorus-         volumes of produced water and          the respective timelines.
neft, Republic of Belarus, in order         increase the longevity of the pro-
to redevelop the field and enhance          ducing wells.                          It is envisaged that the additional
production/ recovery.                     • All the projects are planned to be     oil and gas potential gain through
                                            completed by 2020-21.                  theseinitiatives will help in increas-
Arresting decline in existing                                                      ing production of oil and gas from
fields with IOR-EOR activities &          Road map to achieve target gas           OIL’s domestic assets to contribute
well interventions                        production                               to the country’s planned overall in-
Production enhancement measures                                                    cremental production of 0.23 MMT
are being implemented in the res-         • OIL plans to increase gas pro-         and 36.4 MMTOE for oil & gas re-
ervoirs of our mature fields and in-        duction by 30.4 % by end 2021-         spectivelyfrom domestic produc-
clude,                                      22 from its level of production in     tion,required in 2021-22 from the
• Increasing rig resources to carry-        2014-15 to reach the level of 3.7      levels in 2014-15. The company’s
   out workover/well interventions          BCM for which a number of pro-         actual production profile, till date,
   in a larger number of non-flow-          jects have been initiatedfor cre-      is almost in line with the required
   ing wells.                               ating infrastructure for produc-       mandate. The market and infra-
• Enhancing water injectionby               tion and transmission of natural       structure will play a critical role in
   adding additional reservoirs to          gas. A few of the major initiatives    OIL’s annual gas potentialwhich
   the existing ones.                       to achieve the projected gas pro-      is supposed to reach the level of
• Carrying out of chemical water            duction targets are.                   3.7 BCM by 2021-22 through the
   shut off jobs.                         • Augmentation of gas production         planned efforts of OIL,is expected
• Implementing radial drilling              fromthe Company’smost prolific         to be provided for by the country’s
   techniques.                              gasfield by removing the con-          demand for natural gas which is
• Hydraulic fracturing in tight /           straints in the form of facilities     expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.6
   low permeable sands and matrix           and sand ingression issues.            per cent.
   acidization for removal of near        • A number of gas upsides are

                                                                                                                      21
Low Oil Price and India’s Import
Reduction
By Narendra K Verma

  In March 2015, while Hon’ble            of the gulf war brought in a glob-
Prime Minister sounded the clari-         al recession. The Asian Crisis of
on call for reduction of import of        1998 again crashed the oil markets
crude oil by 10% by 2022, every           as seismic shocks of Asian Giants                         Narendra K Verma
industry veteran worth hissaltwas         collapsing rippled throughout the                         MD and CEO,
pondering on where oil prices had         globe. The world saw a recession                          ONGC Videsh Ltd.
moved since mid -2014; a question         again in 2001, and of course we had
that even now haunts the industry         the Financial Crisis of 2008. In each     Mr. Narendra K Verma is the over-
three years since the sustained de-       of the above instances, oil prices        seas arm of ONGC, India’s premier
cline in oil prices began. Having         declined continuously for consec-         State-owned petroleum major.
braved a debilitating drop in 2008        utive trading days,ranging from 90        ONGC Videsh operates exclusively
in the immediate aftermath of the         days in case of 1991, to 484 days         outside India and currently has a
financialcrisis, oil had recovered        in the case of the Asian Crisis, be-      portfolio of 38 oil and gas assets
to levels close to its historic highs,    fore reversing. We arealready ap-         spread across 17 countries.
before something historically inex-       proaching over650+ trading days
plicable happened to the sector in        where oil prices have struggled           Mr. Verma, anaccomplished ex-
2014.                                     at 50 and below in the presentcy-         ploration geologist and manager
                                          cle, notwithstanding its recovering       with nearly 37 years’ of experience
In 2008, oil markets were on a joyride,   from its lowest point of USD26/bbl        in upstream Oil & Gas industry in
fueled by seemingly unstoppable           in January of 2016(a low not seen         India and abroad, joined ONGC
global growth, whenthe Lehmann-           since 2003, and not witnessedeven         in 1980 and has worked in various
Brothers collapseacted as the trigger     in the 2008 crisis). Each of the above    technical, operational, commercial
to send the entire global economy         historical examples had an obvious        and management roles through
into a tailspin. But the industry could   geopolitical trigger (war, nations’       his long stint.
draw comfort then from the fact that      economies collapsing, financial sys-
the crisishad pervaded all sectors-fi-    tems imploding); there is no such         Mr. Verma holds a Masters degree
nancial, industrial, commodities,         trigger visible now.                      in Applied Geology from Luc-
manufacturing, services. The might                                                  know University and M.Tech. in
of governments were thrown behind         How is this downturn dif-                 Petroleum Exploration from Indian
revival efforts, and commodities, es-     ferent?                                   Institute of Technology (ISM) Dhan-
pecially a strategic commodity like                                                 bad. He also holds a Masters in
oil, recovered quickly to participate     The low oil price regime that we see      Business Administration in Finance.
in an global economy fueled by aids       now (which analysts christened the        Mr. Verma is recipient of pres-
and revival plans funded by govern-       “the lower for longer” scenario) thus     tigious ‘National Mineral Award’
ments. The 2014 drop provided no          stands out in its uniqueness,defined      given by the Government of India
such comfort for the oil and gas sec-     by the following characteristics:         in the field of geosciences, mining
tor. The sustained drop is inexplicable   1. We are witnessing one of the           and allied areas.
for a sector long used to being the          longest slumps in oil price histo-
central focus of all commodities, a          ry                                     Mr. Verma is one of the Vice Chairs
strategic and geo-economically cru-       2. This slump is fundamentally dif-       of Bureau of Expert Group for
cial industry that governments and           ferent from historical dips, taking    Resource Classification for United
nations can never ignore. So what is         virtually no cues from geopoliti-      Nations Economic Commission for
different now?                               cal triggers (Libya, Syria, Nigeria,   Europe (UNECE).
                                             Crimean sanctions). Analytical
The History of Oil price                     evidence points towards a clear        He has published more than 20
Declines                                     and fundamental supply-de-             technical papers and authored
                                             mand predicated downturn.              over 40 technical reports.
Let us study the history of recen-        3. From the time that OPEC came
toil price crashes. In 1991, the end         into international prominence
as a muscle-hefty cartel in the        1. Inventories are at all-time highs;     So, is it all gloom and
   1970s, the world has been used            any hope of inventory draw-            doom?
   to OPEC interventions; to protect         downs in one month are offset
   price, to cut production, influ-          with increases in the next. As         The answer is a categorical No.
   ence global and regional flows.           long as inventories are at 30%         The Industry has gained in a sub-
   This was a first experience with          premium to five year averages, a       stantial way from innovation and
   an initiallyconsciously passive           demand-supply led price drop is        technology upgradation. Lower
   OPEC, which finally galvanized            not going to alleviate itself.         oil prices have resulted in cutting
   itselfinto taking some concerted       2. China was the fuel for the oil in-     of flab, and the industry is learn-
   action, only to realize to its utter      dustry for all of the first decade     ing to survive through innovative
   chagrin that one of the highest           of this millennium. Chinese eco-       and out-of-the-box thinking pro-
   compliance reductions that the            nomic growth headwinds are no          cesses. A case to point is the US
   cartel ever enforced still saw the        longer a matter of conjecture,         shale oil industry. Technology on
   prices unmoved. In other words,           it is an established reality. Oil is   shale oil/tight oil extraction has
   the world is facing the startling         the first commodity to suffer.         seen the maximum innovation
   reality of the increasing irrel-       3. Iran is back as an international       in recent years, propelling US to
   evance of OPEC in influencing             oil player, desirous and anxious       one of the largest oil producers
   prices.                                   to regain its place as a principal     in the world. Efficiency gains and
4. As recently as 2007, oil analysts         oil exporter, a status it enjoyed      project optimization benefits are
   and oil producers were discuss-           before sanctions. The OPEC in-         visible throughout the E&P val-
   ing the impact of the nascent             tervention had to do without           ue chain;US Lower 48 unconven-
   shale oil industry in academic            Iran’s participation, and Iran will    tionals sector was the amongst
   terms. A few years since then,            obviously try to make up for lost      the first sectors to react to falling
   shale oil has contributed in mak-         time.                                  prices and come out with innova-
   ing the biggest oil consumer in        4. The US shale oil producers have        tive cost-saving technologies, by
   the world virtually self-sufficient       been the dark horse in this en-        continuously going back to the
   in oil production. As a corollary,        tire oil price conundrum. Ex-          drawing board.
   the balance of producing power,           perts pointed at their imminent
   and ability to manage swing pro-          demise at $60 a barrel, then at        Across the industry, from Majors
   duction, has shifted from a clutch        $45; bankruptcies and falling rig      to NOCs to independent produc-
   of producing nations acting as a          count notwithstanding, the in-         ers, rapid cost deflation through
   cartel, into the hands of 2500+ in-       dustry continues to produce. In        increased efficiency has been sus-
   dependent producers, for whom             a study, Woodmac pointed out           taining competitiveness. The in-
   the only consideration is the ad-         that at $35/bbl, 3.4 million b/d       dustry is seeing new benchmarks
   ditional dollar they can squeeze          of oil production is cash negative     everyday in scope optimization,-
   from the marginal barrel.                 and should have been shutdown          deferring non-essential capex
5. Most importantly, trillions of            ; but only a miniscule 100,000         without compromising on opera-
   dollars are being transferred             bopd actually went offline. To         tional deliverables,capturing cost
   from oil producing countries              use an American phrase, people         deflation in the market through
   to oil consuming countries. The           are hanging in there. More so          negotiations, competitive bidding
   benefits for our nation in terms          now, as oil inches around $50 a        ,leveraging currency devaluations
   of foreign exchange reserves              barrel.                                and increasing local content, op-
   and balance of payments have           5. Changes in automotive technol-         timizing resources including re-
   been reiterated by experts in             ogy, the fight against climate         visiting opex estimates. The com-
   multiple fora and is well docu-           change and explosion in renew-         placence brought about by high
   mented and understood. Clear-             able alternatives are dampening        oil prices may not have sustained
   ly, since the dawn of the oil age,        the world’s appetite for crude.        such a culture for innovation.
   the geo-economic balance of               Speculation in the E&P industry
   power is shifting.                        has shifted from so-called peak        The Indian Context
                                             oil to peak demand, when re-
Lower for Longeror Lower                     serves considered valuable as-         Domestic portfolio of oil and gas
Forever?                                     sets today wind up being left in       fields particularly of NOCs is quite
                                             the ground. Royal Dutch Shell          matured, and it is perceived that
So, is the “Lower for Longer” sce-           CEO Mr. Ben Van Buerden has            there is limited Yet-To-Find(YTF)
nario here to stay for the near-fore-        recently stated that his compa-        potential in the existing acreage
seeable future? Anecdotal evidence           ny has adopted a “lower forever        portfolios. Private sector may have a
may point towards the affirmative.           mindset”.                              relatively young portfolio, but there
Here are a few obvious reasons:                                                     has been steep decline in their pro-

                                                                                                                      23
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