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Past Weather Experience Is Important For Forecasting

                                  Blog Post By: Brad Luchen
                                     Date: March 19, 2021

        In meteorology, past weather events can be a great forecasting tool if a weather set-up
looks similar to an event that has occurred in the past. The experience allows a meteorologist to
determine whether computer forecast modeling has a chance to verify or not and in some cases it
becomes obvious that the models have it all wrong. As someone who has been fascinated by
weather since the age of 3, I remember many weather events that I have experienced in the past
and the dates of those events. This is useful information that can be used to make better
predictions and in some cases it enables the forecaster a chance to predict an exceptional event
that is missed by some of the most seasoned forecasters. Such an event occurred in the greater
Kansas City area this week.
        On April 24, 2003, there was an area of low pressure moving across Kansas that was cut
off from the main upper air wind flow (jet stream). This weather disturbance moved east across
the state and led to the development of severe thunderstorms near Kansas City. A few tornadoes
occurred, including a weak one near my far eastern Kansas home. That event has forever been
embroidered into my mind because it was a notable event in my life.
        Recently, on March 15, 2021, there was a very similar weather set-up. The set-up caught
my attention as the day was approaching since it was so similar to the April 24, 2003 set-up that I
had since looked into more and remembered. I recognized the potential for a weak tornado in the
Kansas City area due partially to the similarity of how this was looking compared to the April 24
event and others as well.
        The April 24, 2003 and March 15, 2021 events ended up being impressively similar. The
upper-level low pressure system was in almost the exact same position over western Kansas. It
was also quite interesting to see a plethora of other weather features over and near North
America that were similar too. There was an upper level low pressure center affecting the Pacific
Northwest, another near the northern part of the Canada Prairies and a trough of low pressure
over southeastern Canada and the northeastern United States.
        Remembering patterns like this when they repeat provides additional intelligence as to
the outcome. The experience a forecaster has enables him/her to separate themselves from
computer forecast modeling long enough to know where the computer output might be missing a
very important feature that could be easily missed by someone without that experience. These
severe weather events in 2003 and 2021 were so similar that it allowed me a chance to suggest
that an isolated weak tornado may evolve because that is what happened in 2003. Despite very
cool temperatures in eastern Kansas on March 15 of this year and a rather lackluster support for
severe thunderstorms it was clear to me that this pattern had presented a more threatening impact
on the greater Kansas City area than what the computer forecast models were suggesting and
what was being advertised by the National Weather Service. There were no tornado or severe
thunderstorms watches issued early in the day on March 15 because of weak support for severe
thunderstorms, but the experience of 2003 enabled this forecaster an opportunity to let his

Past Weather Experience Is Important For Forecasting

experience guide the forecast and it help to single out World Weather, Inc.’s forecast for the
region as being more accurate than most other services.

Past Weather Experience Is Important For Forecasting

       The radar images from the April 24, 2003 and March 15, 2021 events also helped show
how impressively similar these events ended up being. Both events generated a small tornadic
thunderstorm in the southern Kansas City area. The thunderstorms that occurred in both years
were almost exact in size and occurred in almost the exact same location with movement

Past Weather Experience Is Important For Forecasting

occurring in the same manner. The thunderstorms in both events produced a weak tornado within
a few miles of each other. Both days were also cool in Kansas City with a high of 56 Fahrenheit
on April 24, 2003 and a high of 52 on March 15, 2021 only a four-degree difference. Also, there
was only a 30 minute time difference between these two tornadic thunderstorm events as well.
        This is just one of many examples of how knowledge of past weather events can be
helpful in forecasting weather events. Experience in general is very important in meteorology
and is an important tool for accuracy. Knowing how a storm system behaves in certain scenarios
like this can increase lead time in the awareness of a potential weather threat. For broader scale
crop regions, this can help save money due to the increased accuracy of a forecast.
        In 2020, China experienced exceptional flooding during much of the year and it impacted
much of its agriculture at various times of the year. Similar events have occurred near the solar
minimum multiple times in China which helped to predict when conditions are favorable for
such epic events. Similar experience and knowledge of coffee frost and freeze events in Brazil
and citrus freezes in Florida help to make World Weather, Inc. a leader in agricultural weather
forecasting and assessments.
        The knowledge and experience of repeating weather patterns can cut the rhetoric that
often comes from inexperienced weather companies and the news media regarding the potential
for significant weather events, their potential impact on crops and property as well as refuting
arguments regarding the influence of climate change on periodic weather events. World
Weather, Inc.’s staff of meteorologists has a combined international forecasting experience of 73
years allowing us to predict and assess weather events of significance and gives us the ability to
accurately assess the impact of those events on agriculture, personal property, transportation and
other industries.