Policing and Crime Reduction - The evidence and its implications for practice - Police Effectiveness in a Changing World Project
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Policing and Crime Reduction
The evidence and its implications for practice
Police Effectiveness in a Changing World Project
Dr Jacqui KarnPolicing and Crime Reduction The evidence and its implications for practice Dr Jacqui Karn, Senior Research and Development Officer, The Police Foundation June 2013 Acknowledgements The Police Foundation is very grateful to the Dawes Trust for funding this report as part of the Police Effectiveness in a Changing World project. The Foundation would also like to thank Jesse Donaldson and Jenny Holland for their assistance with the literature search and review and John Graham and Jon Collins for undertaking a final edit of the report. It would also like to extend its gratitude to Professor Ian Loader, Professor Martin Innes, Andy Feist, Stephen Roe, Rachel Tuffin, Dr Paul Quinton and Dr Amie Brown for their helpful comments on earlier drafts. About the Police Foundation The Police Foundation is an independent think tank focused on developing knowledge and understanding of policing and challenging the police service and the government to improve policing for the benefit of the public. The Police Foundation acts as a bridge between the public, the police and the government, while being owned by none of them. Layout / Design by TAW Design and Print – tawdesignandprint@btinternet.com – 01271 314996.
Policing and Crime Reduction 1
Contents
Executive summary ...................................................................................... 3
Introduction .................................................................................................. 7
1. The role of the police in reducing crime ................................................ 9
Introduction ...................................................................................................... 9
What the police do .......................................................................................... 9
Does more police mean less crime? .............................................................. 10
What works in policing to reduce crime? ........................................................ 10
Traditional approaches to policing ................................................ 11
Targeted policing .......................................................................... 14
Maximising effective resource allocation ...................................... 18
Building relationships with the community .................................... 21
Summary and implications for the project ...................................................... 25
2. The challenges for local policing in a changing world ........................ 27
3. Meeting the challenges .......................................................................... 31
Neighbourhood policing: adapting to the changing world .............................. 31
Analysis and intelligence ................................................................................ 34
Conclusion .................................................................................................. 36
References .................................................................................................. 372 Policing and Crime Reduction
Policing and Crime Reduction 3
Executive summary
Introduction Traditionally, the police have favoured a law
enforcement approach to crime control based on
The ‘Police Effectiveness in a Changing World’ the theory of deterrence. This is largely manifested
project was initiated at a time of rapid, through random patrols, emergency response,
fundamental changes both within the police
stop and search, investigation and detection and
service and beyond. New forms of police
intensive enforcement, all of which still dominate
accountability, a renewed emphasis on fighting
contemporary policing activity. Evidence from
crime alongside substantial cuts in budgets
research, however, suggests these strategies are
present considerable challenges at a time when
relatively ineffectual in reducing crime and
globalisation, rapid developments in technology
detecting offenders. Increasingly however, police
and major changes in the way individuals, families
forces are moving towards identifying and
and communities live their lives are substantially
managing risk, which shifts resource allocation
changing patterns of crime and victimisation.
towards specific individuals (prolific offenders and
The role and function of the police is changing repeat victims) and places (high crime areas) rather
accordingly. The police mission has become than relying on arrest, conviction and punishment.
broader and more complex, embracing functions
The targeting of resources on the most risky
more commonly associated with other agencies.
people and places is characterised by
Yet politicians and the public still expect and
approaches to policing that identify hotspots of
demand a police service that focuses on fighting
criminal activity, vulnerable individuals at risk of
crime. The ‘Police Effectiveness in a Changing
being repeatedly victimised and serious and
World’ project addresses these different
prolific offenders. Where resources are more
challenges by identifying and delivering better
concentrated in these ways, crime is more likely
police-led approaches to reducing crime. This
paper provides the evidence base on which the to be reduced. However simply concentrating
project will draw. patrols in crime hotspots, for example, is
insufficient. It is important to adopt the right
Policing and crime reduction tactics. Combining sensitive law enforcement with
situational and social measures, efforts to prevent
Much police work is reactive and incident-focused repeat victimisation and the active involvement of
rather than proactive and strategic. Efforts to shift
the community helps to increase effectiveness.
policing towards a more effective and sustainable
approach to crime reduction have been few and Intelligence-led policing and problem-oriented
far between. Although the police do much more policing are two of the most developed
than fight crime – responding to civil emergencies, approaches to maximising the effective allocation
maintaining order and even undertaking ‘social of police resources to reduce crime. The former
work’ – they still constitute the front line in tackling constitutes the basis of the National Intelligence
crime. And there is now a considerable body of Model, which has been adopted by all police
evidence on how effective they are at doing so, forces in England and Wales. Based on strategic
which this paper summarises. assessments of targets and problems, it aims to4 Policing and Crime Reduction
develop solutions to crime beyond recourse to the often fails to embrace all sections of a local
criminal justice system. Intelligence-led policing community and/or take its views seriously.
has not however been evaluated in terms of its
The legitimacy of the police is important in
impact on crime.
determining whether people are willing to
Not dissimilar to intelligence-led policing, co-operate with the police (reporting incidents,
problem-oriented policing emerged in response to providing intelligence, acting as witnesses) and
criticisms of traditional approaches to reducing comply with the law. By being fair, respectful and
crime and approaches which simply focus just, the police are more likely to secure that
enforcement resources on hotspots. It aims to legitimacy and be more effective in reducing crime.
reduce crime proactively and sustainably by Meeting the demands of a more globalised,
focusing on the most important problems culturally diverse and technologically connected
identified by local communities, using careful society with fewer resources represents a
analysis to define problems and inform significant challenge. Reliance on enforcing the
multi-agency solutions. There is strong evidence law to deter offenders and protect local
that problem-oriented policing reduces crime, but communities is limited in its capacity to respond
it is difficult to implement successfully. to these challenges and to prevent and reduce
crime. The evidence summarised here suggests
The notion that communities have an important
that these limited resources should instead:
part to play in crime reduction initiatives is
embedded in what is commonly referred to as ● Be targeted on high crime micro-locations
community (or neighbourhood) policing. Although where the risks of potential harm are greatest.
not as distinctively defined as intelligence-led or ● Focus on connected problems rather than on
problem-oriented policing, it has been widely individual incidents and involve local
embraced both in North America and the UK. communities in identifying and prioritising
Community policing helps to reassure the public them and harnessing their own resources to
and increase their confidence in the police, but address them.
the evidence that it delivers sustained reductions ● Be used to effectively engage with the local
in crime is equivocal. community and harness the resources of
other agencies to deliver an integrated
Effective community engagement seems to be
approach to reducing crime.
central to any locally-based approach to reducing
crime. It ensures the right problems are
● Be aware of the central importance of
addressed and that the police and their partner securing police legitimacy in delivering a new
agencies are held to account for their actions. and more effective approach.
There are fewer calls to the police when local
Challenges for local policing
communities feel safer and have trust and
confidence in the police, and effective
in a changing world
engagement may even help to reduce crime. In Notwithstanding the internal reforms and budget
practice, however, community engagement too cuts affecting the police service, there are majorPolicing and Crime Reduction 5
socio-economic, demographic and technological be at risk as other agencies withdraw towards
changes affecting contemporary patterns of crime their core activities.
which demand new responses. The globalisation
Targeting resources to deliver the most impact is
of goods and services, the rapid spread of new
now more important than ever. In the new 21st
forms of communication, the increase in personal
century world of policing, the role of robust
mobility and migration, growing income inequality
evidence of effectiveness will become increasingly
and the fragmentation of families and
important at a time when it may become
communities have created new threats and risks
increasingly difficult to generate. The introduction
and new criminal opportunities. It no longer
of Police and Crime Commissioners will have
makes sense to tackle crime without
important implications for resource allocation in a
acknowledging the extent to which it crosses
new commissioning environment that embraces a
local, regional and national boundaries.
wider range of providers.
These changes present considerable challenges
for the police, such as: Meeting the challenges
● Working effectively across local, regional and The police service faces a period of profound
national borders. change. Neighbourhood policing, particularly in
transient, culturally diverse communities, will need
● Staying ahead of increasingly fluid criminal
to develop new approaches to community
networks.
engagement and build collective efficacy around
● Responding to new kinds of offences and
shared norms and values. Public expectations of
new ways of committing them.
what the police can and cannot deliver will need
● Engaging with increasingly transient and to be carefully managed. And better sources of
diverse communities and with citizens community intelligence on, for example, new
connected more through social media than types of criminal activity, hidden crime and
through the places where they live. inter-connected offences that cross borders will
● Meeting increasing public expectations for need to be fostered.
security and the demand for a visible
Many of these changes will need a different style
presence at a time when resources are
of policing, one which fosters the trust and
declining.
confidence of local communities and meets their
Faced with these and other challenges and asked concerns and expectations. It will require a step
to do more with less, the risk is that the service change in information management, with more
will retreat to familiar ground: reactive, effective methods for gathering, sharing and
response-oriented policing, with resources being analysing intelligence to better inform tasking and
deployed to respond to immediate demands strategic decision-making. Developing these skills
rather than more strategic, long term demands. will be crucial to effective problem-solving in highly
Community engagement, neighbourhood policing, diverse and mobile communities such as Luton
partnership working and problem-solving may all and Slough.6 Policing and Crime Reduction Transforming information into intelligence to provide a detailed, accurate picture of the changing world and how the police should respond to it will be key to improving the effectiveness of policing in reducing crime. In addition to the sheer volume of information, there are real issues concerning data quality and how it is used to inform tasking. The focus of crime analysis needs to shift – from tracking the movements of known offenders to identifying persistent problems and anticipating (rather than reacting to) incidents or events. Crime analysts need more sophisticated skills, better training and more resources if they are to achieve the status and influence the new world of policing urgently requires.
Policing and Crime Reduction 7
Introduction
The Police Foundation is currently undertaking a also now work across local, regional and national
four-year independently funded project entitled boundaries to keep abreast of increasingly fluid
‘Police Effectiveness in a Changing World’. The criminal networks and their changing modus
project is based in Luton and Slough, two operandi. Meanwhile, personal relationships
average-sized, ethnically diverse towns without constructed primarily in neighbourhoods
especially high rates of crime or deprivation overall composed of people sharing the same ethnic,
but with pockets of deprivation and high social and economic circumstances are becoming
population turnover. It is being delivered at a time increasingly rare.
of considerable policy and organisational change
for the police service. In addition to the reduction The role of the police
in the central government grant to the police In the UK, preventing and detecting crime and
service by 20 per cent over four years, the preserving the public peace have been the central
coalition government has introduced wide-ranging mandate of the public police since its inception. In
reforms to police accountability, in particular the practice, the police spend a large proportion of
introduction of elected Police and Crime their time performing other roles – responding to
Commissioners (PCCs), and re-emphasised the emergencies, protecting vulnerable people,
police role as being first and foremost to fight preventing terrorism – and are often called upon
crime. This stands in contrast to the previous to deal with situations characterised as
government, with its broader focus on community ‘something-that-ought-not-to-be-happening-and-
safety and, in its later years, the measurement of about-which-someone-had-better-do-something-
police effectiveness in terms of public confidence. now!’ (Bittner, 1974). As graphically illustrated by
The introduction of PCCs may, at least in some the 24 hour twitter experiment conducted by
force areas, serve to reinforce this shift, as do Greater Manchester Police in 2010, the Police
police forces’ own targets, which continue to Service are very much the agency of first resort,
prioritise the reduction of crime. with more than a third of all the incidents they
respond to on a daily basis being social work
At the same time, wider contextual changes –
rather than crime-related.
globalisation of markets for goods and services,
the rapid expansion of information technology and Ronnie Flanagan’s Review of Policing (2008)
social media, the growth of personal mobility and suggested that over the last decade or so, this
migration, the fragmentation of families and public demand has resulted in “the police service
communities and the ever-widening gap between mission… becoming both broader and more
the rich and the poor – are changing patterns of complex”, requiring a response to issues that
crime. New threats create new forms of harm, might otherwise be addressed by other agencies.
particularly for the most vulnerable groups: This has also been accompanied by an
children, new migrants, the elderly and the poor. unprecedented increase in police powers and
Identity theft, people trafficking, investment resources. Yet the image of the police service as
scams, internet fraud and other ‘emerging’ crimes largely engaged in crime control continues to
pose new challenges for the police, who must shape public and policy expectations of police8 Policing and Crime Reduction
work 1 as well as rank and file understandings of
their role (Reiner, 2010). So despite this wider
mandate and an expansion in its mission, the
police service has been judged over the past 30
years or so primarily on the basis of its
effectiveness in tackling crime and continues to
be so. The Police Effectiveness in a Changing
World project continues this trend by focusing
primarily on police effectiveness in reducing crime,
which is the project’s main aim.
The purpose of this report
This report provides some background to the
project by summarising the evidence base on
policing and crime reduction. It summarises the
key lessons from research on which the project will
draw in developing locally-tailored approaches to
improving police effectiveness and reducing crime,
addressing some of the organisational and
operational challenges arising out of the changing
socio-economic context in which the police
service 2 currently operates. It does not explore the
approach to practice development that will be
used during the project itself, but rather highlights
the way in which existing knowledge about current
challenges and effective practice might shape and
inform the project.
The report is divided into three sections. The first
section reviews the research literature on the role
of the police in reducing crime, drawing out some
of the key lessons. The second focuses on the
challenges facing the police service in a changing
world, while the third section focuses on the
implications of the conclusions from the first two
sections for the Police Effectiveness in a Changing
World project.
1 See, for example, the Home Secretary’s speech to the National Policing
Conference 29 June 2010 when she stated: “I couldn’t be any clearer about
your mission ... it is to cut crime. No more. No less.”.
2 The project is primarily concerned with the role of the public police service in
reducing crime, not policing more broadly.Policing and Crime Reduction 9
1. The role of the police in reducing crime
Introduction stream of emergency calls, mostly from the
public. As an emergency service, the police
Following a brief description of what is known respond to calls 24/7 on a case-by-case basis,
about what the police do and the extent to which dealing with each one individually. Commonly
their activity is (or is not) based on robust
termed ‘response policing’, it focuses on the here
evidence, this section summarises the large body
and now, providing immediate help to victims and
of research on the effectiveness of policing in
(potentially) arresting suspects. It constitutes what
reducing crime. Most of this evidence-base comes
police officers often refer to as ‘real’ policing.
from the US, but some also comes from the UK.
Although response policing constitutes the ‘bread
The review focuses primarily on those aspects of
and butter’ of everyday policing, there is in fact
policing commonly associated with uniform rather
virtually no evidence on its effects on crime
than plain-clothes or civilian officers – street patrol,
(Committee on Law and Justice, 2004).
crime prevention and routine detection rather than
less visible forms of policing such as covert Considerable research has been undertaken in
surveillance and forensics. It relies primarily but not the past to establish the degree to which the
exclusively on the findings of systematic reviews police spend their time directly responding to or
rather than individual studies. The main aim is to preventing crime (see, for example, Bittner, 1990).
distil from this review the key lessons for the Police This research, mainly undertaken in the 1970s
Effectiveness in a Changing World project. and then 1980s, highlighted the large proportion
of police time devoted to duties other than crime
There are a number of ways in which the
control, including incidents not classified as crime
presentation of this complex and considerable
or leading to criminal proceedings, and time spent
body of work could be organised. There is no
in processing cases and administration (Brodeur,
‘right’ way of doing this, particularly given the
degree to which specific models and approaches 2010). According to the British Crime Survey, only
to policing are defined differently by different a minority of contacts between the police and the
scholars and sometimes overlap. The approach public involve actual criminal incidents (Skogan,
adopted here organises the evidence primarily in 1990), although research also suggests that just
terms of how different approaches utilise and over half of police work is in some way
allocate resources and, where possible, attempts crime-related (i.e. incidents that might involve or
to differentiate strategic as opposed to tactical lead to a crime) (Shapland and Vagg, 1990). The
measures. It concludes with a section on police Greater Manchester twitter experiment referred to
legitimacy, which is more about the ‘how’ of earlier suggests little has changed.
policing rather than the ‘what’, but which, it was Research on the role of the police has consistently
felt, is crucial to improving effectiveness. highlighted their wider mandate and service
function in order maintenance more generally (for
What the police do example crowd control, responding to
Popular perceptions of what the police do tend to emergencies etc.) and the amount of time they
focus on their role in responding to a constant spend on front line, public-facing activities. 3 A
3 This has recently re-emerged in public discourse in response to the current
climate of financial constraint and concerns about maintaining a visible police
presence on the streets.10 Policing and Crime Reduction
recent National Police Improvement Agency (NPIA) decreases in total police officer numbers have on
study of neighbourhood and response teams in the crime rates. On the whole, the evidence that
UK found that public-facing work in the community additional numbers of police reduce crime rates
accounted for about 44 per cent of officers’ time. is inconclusive (Bradford, 2011), although the
This included responding to incidents, taking absence of any police presence (e.g. as a result
statements, foot patrol and community of strike action) has been shown to increase
engagement. Administrative work accounted for crime (Sherman and Eck, 2002). Some studies
nearly a third of officer time and a further quarter of have suggested that increased police numbers
their time was spent in the custody suite or at may be associated with lower property and other
court, in training, briefings or meetings, travelling or acquisitive crime, with one study suggesting that
on breaks (Mclean and Hillier, 2010). an estimated 10 per cent increase in officers
leads to a reduction of around three per cent in
A key issue raised by research exploring ‘what the crime (Levitt, 1997), but the evidence of an
police do’ has been the disjointed, incident association between police numbers and violent
-focused nature of police work, with incidents crime seems to be more ambiguous (Bradford,
being treated in large part as unconnected. This 2011). Efforts to increase the speed of response
incident focus stems not just from the way in to urgent incidents have also been shown to have
which the public report incidents but also from the little impact on detection rates as the delay in
way in which such incidents are dealt with (as calling the police tends to outweigh any increase
issues which do or do not merit criminal in the chances of catching the perpetrator that
prosecution). However this limits the capacity to reduced response times might achieve (Skogan
develop a more strategic picture, over time, of the and Frydl, 2004). In practice, it is difficult to
inter-connectedness, persistence or escalation of separate out the effect of increased numbers
problems and can be a key impediment to from what these additional officers actually do.
developing more long-term, sustainable
approaches to reducing crime. An approach more What works in policing
able to develop that picture would require the to reduce crime?
development of new skills in front line officers (see
On the whole, the police service and its partners
Her Majesty’s Inspector of Constabulary, 2012),
do not routinely use research evidence to inform
but with the exception of various kinds of
their practice in tackling crime. In a review of 150
problem-oriented Policing (see below), this aspect
entries to the UK Tilley Award, which recognise
of police work has been relatively neglected.
innovative crime fighting projects, fewer than a
Does more police mean third explicitly drew on evidence in developing
their projects (Bullock and Tilley, 2009).
less crime?
Nonetheless there is now a significant, and
Before looking in detail at how effective the police growing, body of research on what works in
are in reducing crime, it is worth looking briefly at policing. Much of this research has been
the evidence on the impact that increases or undertaken in North America, where policing andPolicing and Crime Reduction 11
the context in which the police perform their random patrols will come across an incident in
functions differ from the UK, but there are progress. It was famously estimated that, on the
important lessons to be learnt from this now basis of burglary rates (in the 1980s) and evenly
extensive body of research. This section draws on distributed patrol, an officer in London could
the findings of a number of reviews of this expect to pass within a hundred yards of a burglary
evidence and is divided into the following four in progress once in every eight years (Clarke and
sub-sections: Hough, 1984). In practice, random patrol is less
● Traditional approaches to policing. about deterring or catching offenders and more
about providing a symbolic presence that
● Targeted policing.
proclaims a state of order and reassures the public.
● Maximising effective resource allocation.
● Building relationships with the community. The research evidence on foot patrols does not
seem to coincide with public perceptions, which
Traditional approaches see patrols as principally synonymous with
to policing preventing crime and securing community
safety (see for example Noaks, 2000).
The traditional approach to policing tends to According to the British Crime Survey (2002/03),
allocate resources across a jurisdiction and cover when prioritising different aspects of police work,
all crime types, is reactive rather than proactive the public place foot patrols third after
and favours deterrence through law enforcement responding to emergency calls (placed first) and
rather than taking account of different patterns of detecting and arresting offenders (placed
crime across time and space. In terms of how second). When asked to rank which measures
traditional policing impacts on crime, there are would most improve community safety, the public
essentially four different strategies that have been
tend to place ‘more police patrolling on foot’ well
the subject of research:
above any other measure (Wakefield, 2006). This
● Random patrol and response. helps to explain why politicians from all parties
● Stop and search. are keen to maintain or better still increase the
● Investigation and detection. number of ‘bobbies on the beat’.
● Intensive enforcement. Research also shows that the public expect police
patrols to do more than just prevent crime. A
Random patrol and response community survey undertaken as part of the
A considerable body of early research on police Policing in London study carried out in 2002
effectiveness in reducing crime was devoted to found that two thirds of respondents (67 per cent)
exploring the effectiveness of random patrol in thought patrols should focus on detecting and
preventing and detecting crime, either as a general preventing crime, but half (49 per cent) wanted
deterrent or by answering calls in the shortest them to focus on reassurance, a quarter (25 per
possible time (Skogan and Frydl, 2004). This cent) on work in schools and a further quarter (24
research demonstrated the very small chance that per cent) on gathering local intelligence (FitzGerald12 Policing and Crime Reduction
et al, 2002). A fifth (20 per cent) cited dealing with Stop and search
disturbances and 15 per cent mentioned
Stop and search powers enable the police to allay
providing advice on crime prevention.
or confirm suspicions about individuals and
Furthermore, the public believe that the number
detect, for example, those suspected of carrying
and/or visibility of officers are more effective in
weapons, stolen goods or going equipped for
tackling crime than any other intervention,
stealing. In practice, the law requires the
including addressing the root causes of crime
execution of such powers to be based on fact,
(Wakefield, 2006).
information and/or intelligence and not on the
In reality, the evidence on the deterrent effect of subjective whim of individual officers. Research
the visible presence of officers on foot is mixed. shows that only a small minority of searches result
Early research showed that on the whole neither in an arrest (see The Police Foundation, 2012),
car patrols (Kelling et al,1974) nor foot patrols with variations according to the reason for the
(Kelling, 1981) reduced crime rates, although the stop. Arrest rates for those suspected of
latter was found to improve community relations possessing stolen property tend to be higher than
and reduce (to a small extent) fear of crime (Pate, those for carrying drugs (primarily cannabis).
1986). Despite notable exceptions in relation to A low detection rate alone does not necessarily
specific crimes – in the US, directed patrols have undermine the use of stop and search powers for
helped to reduce the carrying of illegal weapons crime prevention if their use disrupts and deters
(Koper and Mayo-Wilson, 2006) and in the UK, criminal activity rather than simply detecting it
additional foot patrols have reduced personal (House of Commons Home Affairs Committee,
robberies (Jones and Tilley, 2004) – the general 2005). However research shows that searches
view is that foot patrols do little to reduce crime reduce the number of ‘disruptable’ crimes by just
overall. However, where directed patrols are 0.2% and its use in disrupting drug markets is
deployed as one of a number of tactics to reduce largely ineffectual as officers primarily target users
crime in hotspots (or better still micro-locations) or rather than dealers (Miller et al, 2000). Blanket
as part of a problem-oriented policing initiative, enforcement crackdowns on neighbourhood drug
the impact tends to be more positive (Ratcliffe, markets may even be counter-productive, with
2011). The most encouraging evidence comes violence actually increasing following market
from the Philadelphia foot patrol experiment, disruption as new organised crime groups
where targeted foot patrols were found to compete for territory (Weisburd and Eck, 1999).
significantly reduce violent crime (Ratcliffe et al, Research does however suggest that searches
2011). The key ingredients seem to be dosage – may be more effective in deterring crime when
the more focussed or concentrated patrols are, used intensively in a particular location over a
the more likely they will have a suppressive effect short period of time (Miller et al, 2000).
– what officers actually do on patrol to increase
the risk (or perceived risk) of apprehension and Investigation and detection
how patrols are combined with other tactics to Analysing drug or stolen goods markets is a
address wider problems. relatively recent development in crime controlPolicing and Crime Reduction 13
generally and in criminal investigation more offenders or victims) or in certain places (i.e. areas
specifically. Traditionally, the deployment of of high crime) rather than relying on arrest,
investigative resources amounted primarily to conviction and punishment (Maguire, 2008). This
responding to crimes reported to the police more strategic approach to targeting law
(largely by the public) and identifying the enforcement resources requires relatively
perpetrators of an offence. The main aim was to sophisticated forms of data sharing across a
gather evidence, such as witness statements, number of agencies and is discussed in more
fingerprints or CCTV images, which could be detail in the section below on targeted policing.
used in court to secure a conviction. This
approach is based on a deterrence model Intensive enforcement
whereby offending is discouraged by increasing Commonly referred to as either a ‘zero tolerance’
the chance that an offender will be caught. (see Weatheritt, 1998) or ‘broken windows’
(Wilson and Kelling, 1982) approach to law
Catching offenders is a core function of detective
enforcement, intensive forms of law enforcement
work, but research suggests that detectives fail to
are often associated with tough crime-fighting
clear up most cases. The vast majority of property
rhetoric. 4 In practice, however, these approaches
crimes and a significant proportion of violent crime
are based on the idea that responding
are unsolved (Telep and Weisburd, 2012). On the
immediately and consequentially to incivilities
whole, if a suspect is not caught at the scene of
such as vandalism, street drinking and
the crime, then he/she is rarely identified. prostitution, will avert a downward spiral of
Detectives are however a potentially useful source disorder, which occurs when communities, in fear
of intelligence, particularly in relation to repeat of more serious offending, start to withdraw their
offending, and it has been suggested that they willingness to intervene (Wilson and Kelling,
could be used more proactively, such as helping 1982). While the link between incivilities and more
to identify the future plans of known criminal serious crime has been challenged (Taylor, 2001),
networks. This would amount to a shift from focusing police resources on incivilities (more
producing evidence to secure a conviction commonly referred to as antisocial behaviour in
towards a role that is more about producing the UK) has become a popular government
knowledge or ‘intelligence’ about suspects and response to a legitimate public concern.
their associates and information about the
circumstances of their current and future In general, intensive enforcement activity (and
any deterrent effect it may have) is not only
offending behaviour (Maguire, 2008).
unsustainable in the longer term but in its
In today’s rapidly changing world, where simplest form does not, on the whole, reduce
communities are more diverse and fragmented, crime or incivilities (Skogan, 1992). However, its
governments are increasingly concerned with effectiveness depends largely on what tactics
identifying and managing risk. This requires more are adopted and how they are deployed
lasting solutions that prevent behaviour being (Skogan, 1990). The best known example of
repeated by or against specific individuals (i.e. intensive enforcement was introduced in New
4 Although zero tolerance policing was greeted with scepticism by British police
professionals sensitive to the impact of such an approach on police-community
relationships, the influence of the related ‘broken windows’ rationale has been
evident in the development of policy and practice to tackle antisocial behaviour
in the UK. To date, there is no evidence to show that this approach has led to a
reduction in related crime.14 Policing and Crime Reduction
York, where its impact has been a source of
city have also been undermined by
considerable contention.
simultaneous falls in crime in other North
American and European cities, where
The New York experience
different approaches have prevailed.
During the 1990s and beyond, the crime rate Importantly, the use of focused enforcement
in New York fell sharply. A series of activity to tackle crime and disorder in New
commentators have attempted to explain this York was also criticised for resulting in
fall, including a succession of City Mayors increased complaints about police
and Police Commissioners. The main misconduct and a loss of public trust.
difficulty lies in separating out the effect of
intensive/aggressive enforcement activity
from a number of other changes introduced
Targeted policing
at the same time. One of these was the The limited impact of random patrol, reactive and
introduction of CompStat, which focuses on intensive enforcement on crime rates led to
increasing the accountability of individual attempts to improve the effectiveness of the
officers for their performance in achieving police in reducing crime by concentrating
crime reduction targets (Bratton, 1998). In resources on specific crimes, criminals, victims
practice, CompStat scrutinises real-time and places. This led to the development of much
crime data and focuses police activity in more focused resource allocation through, in
specific hotspots and therefore goes beyond particular, hotspots policing, tackling repeat
the intensification of enforcement activity. victimisation and focused deterrence. These are
Although the evidence suggests that the discussed in turn.
targeted work created by CompStat may
Hotspots policing
indeed have contributed to reductions in
crime in New York, the evidence of its impact Initiatives that take account of the uneven
in other American cities is mixed. CompStat’s distribution of crime between and within
use can also lead to an over-emphasis on neighbourhoods and target resources on
holding officers to account for performance micro-locations (a small number of streets, a
targets (and the manipulation of data that this block of flats or even two or three addresses) are
can incentivise) rather than solving problems. commonly referred to as ‘hotspots’ policing
(Weisburd and Braga, 2006). The influential
Explanations for the reduction in overall crime
Minneapolis Hot Spots Experiment, for example,
in New York remain strongly contested. In
found that 50 per cent of calls for service came
addition to policing, it has been attributed
from only 3.3 per cent of locations and advocated
variously to drug market changes, high rates
focusing interventions (in this case increased
of imprisonment and increased supervision of
patrol) on such micro-locations rather than whole
persistent offenders. The claims for the
neighbourhoods. It delivered clear, if modest,
success of the specific style of policing in the
general deterrent effects as measured byPolicing and Crime Reduction 15
reductions in crime calls and observations of persistent problems commonly found in such
disorder (Sherman et al, 1989), as have other communities. 5 Such problems include:
similar initiatives (Sherman and Weisburd, 1995). ● High concentrations of poverty and ill-health.
While there is evidence that focusing resources in ● A poor physical environment.
hotspots reduces crime, initiatives that simply rely ● Low-income families.
on using patrol and law enforcement in these
● Poor performing schools.
hotspots tend to be less effective (Taylor et al,
2011), the impact tending to be small and ● Limited neighbourhood resources and
short-lived (Koper, 1995). The effectiveness of informal control.
hotspots policing clearly varies according to the ● Active drug markets.
approaches and tactics that are used; it is rarely ● Barriers to offender resettlement.
sufficient simply to concentrate police patrol
Although often characterised as polarised
resources in specific locations (Rosenbaum, 2006).
approaches, researchers have begun to highlight
A frequent component of hotspots policing the potential for a more integrated approach that
initiatives is the introduction of measures that takes greater account of the social context of
reduce the opportunities for committing crime. hotspots, in particular the need for greater
Commonly known as ‘situational crime recognition that it is the social characteristics of
prevention’, such measures include installing hotspots that account for their longevity
better locks on doors and windows (target (Weisburd, 2012). This suggests that there may
hardening), increasing surveillance through for be some potential for more targeted
example installing CCTV cameras and looking after socio-economic interventions in micro-locations.
or altering the environment by for example
cleaning up graffiti, removing abandoned cars or As yet little is known about why hotspots are
attractive targets to offenders and what role, if any,
improving street lighting. There is now
residents’ ‘collective efficacy’ plays in this. The term
considerable evidence to support the effectiveness
‘collective efficacy’ is used to describe the degree
of situational crime prevention (which cannot be
to which neighbours know and trust one another
reviewed here), which where included partially
and are willing to intervene (together or individually)
helps to explain the convincing body of evidence
to protect their neighbourhood from crime and
that broadly supports the strategic targeting of
related problems. It acts as a protective factor in
micro-locations (see also Bottoms, 2012).
neighbourhoods that might otherwise experience
Reducing the opportunities for crime is sometimes high levels of crime (Sampson and Raudenbusch,
contrasted with approaches that attempt to 1999). Recent research, which has begun to
change the socio-economic context of high crime explore whether collective efficacy is also protective
neighbourhoods. This school of thought in micro-locations (Bottoms, 2012; Weisburd,
acknowledges the importance of developing 2012), suggests that offenders are aware of the
lasting solutions (Rosenbaum, 2006) based on a willingness of local residents to intervene or watch
detailed understanding of the multiple and out for each other. Thus a street, for example, with
5 In the British context, this tends to be particularly influenced by social housing
provision and housing allocation practice (Bottoms, 2012).16 Policing and Crime Reduction
greater collective efficacy may be a less attractive concentrated crime control efforts. While
location for committing offences than another, even community members may generally support the
within a high crime neighbourhood. This suggests concentration of resources to address crime, care
there may be potential benefits in strengthening needs to be taken to ensure that hotspots
collective efficacy in micro-location hotspots policing does not become overly enforcement-
(Bottoms, 2012), particularly in areas of high focused (Rosenbaum 2006). Although arrests will
population turnover, where length of residence, always be a central element in policing, the
social organisation and mutual trust, may be aggressive use of enforcement approaches to
considerably less. address problems that are not considered the
most damaging in a community, or in ways that
Although the evidence on hotspots policing is
appear heavy-handed or unjust, can have lasting
encouraging, there are a number of issues that
need addressing. For example, little is known about consequences for police-community relations
the degree to which sustained targeting results in (Karn, 2007) and ultimately police legitimacy. Such
offenders engaging in other forms of crime. Also, approaches can also disproportionately increase
analyses of hotspots based on reported crime data the entry of predominantly low-income, often
are limited in terms of identifying patterns that are minority ethnic men into the criminal justice
not location-specific (for example e-crime and system. Political pressure for short-term gains
fraud) or are under-reported (for example, domestic therefore needs to be carefully considered
abuse and hate crime) (Rosenbaum, 2006). There alongside the potential risk that particular types of
are also limits to the degree to which managing hotspots policing can undermine the long-term
localised crime hotspots can address criminality stability of neighbourhoods (Weisburd, 2012).
that transcends local, regional or even national A thorough understanding of the dynamics of the
boundaries. However, research has shown that social context in which resources are being
feared displacement effects – whereby the problem deployed may help to mitigate some of these
moves to other neighbourhoods – are rarely a limitations. Some of the most promising
problem and indeed in some instances can have approaches to hotspots policing integrate
the opposite effect of reducing crime in socio-economic interventions and social and
neighbouring areas (Braga et al, 2012; Bowers et
situational crime prevention measures to reduce
al, 2011). This absence of displacement has been
crime with measures that increase the resilience of
explained by the fact that crime hotspots also tend
local residents. They also incorporate the strong
to be hotspots of offender residence and that
body of evidence that shows that what matters is
offenders are reluctant to commit offences in
not just whether more police resources are
unfamiliar areas (Weisburd et al, 2006).
assigned to hotspots, but what resources are best
Focusing resources on places for which there is deployed (from what agencies/ professions/
evidence of concentrated demand has an sectors) to address a well-understood problem and
operational logic that is appealing to many police how (Rosenbaum, 2006). This more integrated
managers, but most studies have tended to approach, more akin to problem-oriented policing,
neglect the reaction of the community to is discussed further below.Policing and Crime Reduction 17
Tackling repeat victimisation uses data from a range of sources to predict
where and when crime is likely to take place in the
A further approach that aims to focus resources
future. This approach is most commonly
more effectively is based on research that
associated with work by the police in Los Angeles
highlights the increased risk of being
(LA) in the US, where patrols are deployed on the
re-victimised. Repeat incidents account for a high
basis of a victimisation risk assessment. It builds
proportion of the total number of most categories
on a hotspots approach by offering more
of offences: one per cent of people experience
specificity in time and place and thus enabling
59 per cent of personal crimes and two per cent
police officers to use problem-solving approaches
experience 41 per cent of non-vehicle-related
in the right place at the right time. In LA, the
property crime (Pease, 1998). The risk of
model focuses on burglary and theft of, and from,
re-victimisation also tends to increase with each
a motor vehicle, but in Memphis, for example, a
experience of crime. Targeting repeat victims is
predictive approach has also been used to tackle
therefore seen as an effective way to reduce
violent crime.
crime, and has been shown to be particularly
effective in reducing the rate of repeat The crime reduction effect of predictive policing is
victimisation for burglary (Grove et al, 2012). yet to be rigorously tested (Telep and Weisburd,
2012), although in the US the National Institute of
Research also shows that in the short term, crime
Justice has funded a programme of work to
risks increase for near-neighbours as well as the
measure its impact that will contribute to the
victim and that, at least for burglary, the offences
evidence base in due course (US Department of
are often committed by the same perpetrator
Justice, 2009). Within the UK, in addition to
(Burnasco, 2008). As a result, in the mid-1990s all
existing initiatives to tackle repeat victimisation, a
police forces in England and Wales were obliged
pilot project based on the LA model was launched
to develop strategies to reduce repeat
by Kent Police in December 2012 and
victimisation (Nicholas and Farrell, 2008) and more
subsequently rolled out across the force
recently a number of forces in the UK, including
(Whitehead, 2013).
Greater Manchester Police and the Metropolitan
Police Service, introducing so-called ‘Super Focused deterrence
Cocooning’ projects, which focus activity on
An alternative to targeting repeat victims is to
preventing repeat and near-repeat victimisation.
focus resources on repeat offenders. In the US,
This is intended to allocate resources according to
some initiatives have adopted a focused
risk while giving victims (and potential victims)
deterrence or ‘pulling levers’ approach, which has
practical help and support (Nicholas and Farrell,
demonstrated significant reductions in crime
2008). In line with the available evidence (Grove et
through targeting multi-agency resources on a
al, 2012), it has been claimed that they have had
small number of high risk/prolific offenders (Braga
a significant impact (Chainey, 2012).
and Weisburd, 2012). The approach is based on
Work to prevent repeat and near-repeat increasing the certainty, swiftness and severity of
victimisation is a form of predictive policing, which punishment by directly engaging offenders and18 Policing and Crime Reduction
potential offenders and offering incentives to Intelligence-led policing
comply with the law as well as clear
Intelligence-led policing aims to reduce crime by:
consequences for not doing so (Kennedy, 2009).
The findings from these studies add to the ● Collecting relevant and reliable information
evidence in support of the deterrent effect of from a variety of sources to provide a clear
police enforcement activity that heightens and accurate picture of the most pressing
offenders’ perceived risk of apprehension (Durlauf current and future crime problems.
and Nagin, 2011), but also stress that ● Prioritising them and planning targeted
complementary crime reduction mechanisms also responses to them.
play a key role in contributing to the large effects ● Implementing the plans and evaluating the
on crime rates observed (Braga and Weisburd, process and the outcomes.
2012). These include:
● Feeding back the knowledge and experience
● Reducing the situational opportunities for gained (Ratcliffe, 2011).
violence.
Four intelligence products are created: strategic
● Deflecting offenders from crime.
assessments, tactical assessments, target profiles
● Increasing access to social services, and problem profiles. Regular meetings of Tasking
employment opportunities, housing and drug and Control Groups (TCGs) are held to decide
treatment. how to best target resources to priority people
● Increasing collective efficacy and natural (e.g. prolific offenders), places (e.g. crime
surveillance within communities. hotspots) and activities (e.g. night time economy).
● Treating offenders with respect and dignity to
Intelligence-led policing was first pioneered in the
encourage greater compliance.
UK by Kent Police Service in the early 1990s. In
The evidential success of ‘pulling levers’ practice however, cultural resistance and the
approaches has led to a new model of crime significant reorganisation of officer roles and
reduction in the US termed the New Criminal functions meant that Kent’s embracing of
Justice. intelligence-led policing remained an exception to
the rule until the introduction of the National
Maximising effective Intelligence Model (NIM) a decade later (Maguire,
resource allocation 2008). NIM is the major vehicle for delivering
Economic and political pressures to increase intelligence-led policing, variations of which are
efficiency, improve performance and reduce costs now being used in all forces. Introduced in part as
has led to more strategic approaches or ‘models’ a response to the increasingly sophisticated,
of policing, in particular intelligence-led policing transnational and mobile nature of criminality, the
and problem-oriented policing. Drawing on some NIM has institutionalised intelligence-led policing.
of the more targeted approaches discussed Based on strategic assessments of current and
above, they constitute a more strategic approach predicted crime threats and tactical assessments
to crime reduction. of targets and problems, its aim is to developPolicing and Crime Reduction 19
solutions to crime problems outside the criminal communities that have been resistant to other,
justice system, such as disrupting criminal markets more conventional responses (Goldstein, 1990).
and the criminal networks that control them. To an extent a problem-solving approach is
embedded in the National Intelligence Model (and
With less than a quarter of all recorded crime
potentially in some investigation practice), and is
leading to detection and a sanction, finding
evident, in particular, in the way analysis is
alternative ways to fight crime outside the criminal
intended to inform multi-agency tasking meetings
justice system should be a key priority. But
(Maguire and John, 2003), so problem-solving has
although the NIM is seen by most officers as
become part of policing practice.
successful in tackling the main problems in an area
(Maguire and John, 1995), it has, like Problem-oriented policing requires a thorough
intelligence-led policing, not been independently understanding of the problems and the
evaluated in terms of its impact on crime (Maguire, effectiveness of strategies to address them. This
2008) let alone how relevant it might be in tackling involves an analysis of their causes, identifying
new, emerging crime patterns. Embracing partners strategies for intervention (beyond law
who focus on risks and problems identified enforcement) and involving other agencies and
through the analysis of multiple sources of data the community in delivering them. It also requires
relating to patterns of crime, as piloted in Greater checking whether the intended benefits have
Manchester (known as Greater Manchester accrued (Tilley, 2010). The main intention is to
Against Crime), would help to shift the NIM reduce crime and disorder proactively and
towards a more problem-oriented approach, sustainably by dealing with recurrent or
which is discussed below. connected problems, rather than responding
incident by incident, and improving community
Problem-oriented policing
confidence in the effectiveness of agencies by
A recent review of hotspots policing initiatives by responding to their immediate and most pressing
the Campbell Collaboration provides convincing concerns. The capacity for problem-solving
evidence that while, overall, hotspots policing approaches to reduce local crime rates in
strategies can be effective in reducing crime, they hotspots is now widely accepted, especially when
are more likely to do so where interventions alter driven by community concerns (Tuffin, 2006),
the characteristics and dynamics of hotspots
although their effectiveness has in the past
through problem-oriented policing interventions.
suffered from implementation failure (Quinton and
Problem-oriented policing emerged as a more
Morris, 2008) and a tendency for the police to
proactive alternative to traditional response
‘rush to solution’ before securing a full
policing and more effective than simply focusing
understanding of the problem and how best to
enforcement approaches on hotspots. While still
resolve it (Myhill, 2006).
identifying problem hotspots, problem-oriented
policing places more emphasis on understanding A recent systematic review concluded that
the connections between problems and why they problem-oriented policing initiatives built on sound
are occurring, tackling problems identified by local data analysis and research have had ‘an20 Policing and Crime Reduction
overwhelmingly positive impact on crime
problems and strategies in response to
rates’ (Weisburd et al, 2010), although the
attempts to address them.
evidence is less clear about how and why they
have worked in some circumstances but not in SARA has been criticised for being
others (Tilley, 2006). Unfortunately, in practice the over-simplistic (Bullock and Tilley, 2009), but
police and their partners often fail to conduct it nevertheless provides a logical stepwise
systematic, in-depth problem analysis (Telep and approach to embedding evidence in
Weisburd, 2012), revisit problems and learn problem-oriented policing.
lessons highlighted during implementation, or
effectively implement evidence-based The growth in the analysis infrastructure within UK
interventions (Tilley, 2010). The effective police forces, using software for the collection,
integration of multi-agency information and mapping and analysis of crime and disorder data
interventions also remains a significant challenge and other local information to inform an
and analytical capacity remains one of the understanding of local problems, has been
potentially weakest elements in the assisted in part by the recognition of the need to
implementation of a problem-solving approach. understand better the connections between
incidents. There have been successful initiatives
Scanning, Analysis, Response that share data between police and partner
and Assessment agencies, bringing together different kinds of
Scanning, Analysis, Response and information to supplement recorded crime data.
Assessment (SARA) is the model most often An initiative in Cardiff Accident and Emergency
used to guide the design and implementation Departments in hospitals, for example, actively
of multi-agency, problem-solving crime collected data from victims of violence to develop
reduction initiatives. The model comprises an better responses to tackling violence (including
iterative process of: unreported incidents) (Florence et al, 2011).
However, attempts to replicate this elsewhere
● Identifying community and organisational
have struggled to create the conditions for the
concerns (scanning).
successful provision and use of similar quality
● Investigating priority problems, such as
data (Davison et al, 2010).
exploring in depth what, where, when,
who, how and why the problem is Partnership working
happening (analysis).
A crucial component of problem-oriented policing
● Developing tailored, evidence-based
is the role of partners in delivering
interventions to address the problems
problem-solving interventions. The police do not
identified and their causes (response).
possess all the information needed to assess all
● Evaluating the implementation and
the problems and their causes, nor all the means
outcomes achieved (assessment) and
to coordinate and deliver sustainable solutions.
then redefining and refining those
This realisation has been a key driver in theYou can also read
