PRAGUE OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW - 2021 | CZECH REPUBLIC - WIKIBANKS

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PRAGUE OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW - 2021 | CZECH REPUBLIC - WIKIBANKS
2021 | Czech Republic

Prague
Office Market
Overview
PRAGUE OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW - 2021 | CZECH REPUBLIC - WIKIBANKS
2

                                                      Macroeconomic overview
                              Q1 |Czech Republic
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International

                                                                                                 The Czech Republic remained                               consumer spending is also
                                                                                                 in a state of emergency during                            expected to lead the recovery,
                                                                                                 the entire first quarter of 2021.                         thanks to the accumulated
                                                                                                 This condition was ended in                               savings      amongst      the
                                                                                                 mid-April and lasted a total of                           population.
                                                                                                 189 days. Despite some
                                                                                                 progress of distributing the                              What could be surprising,
                                                                                                 vaccine to the population, it is                          despite reported closures of
                                                                                                 still quite slow in comparison                            hundreds of restaurants and
                                                                                                 with other countries in Europe.                           even several retail brands and
                                                                                                 As the count of new confirmed                             chains,     is     that      the
                                                                                                 cases of COVID decreases, the                             unemployment        rate     has
                                                                                                 whole country looks forward to                            remained at similar levels
                                                                                                 loosening the measures. There                             recorded last year, reaching
                                                                                                 is however a long road back to                            4.2% at the end of March 2021.
                                                                                                 normality and the government,                             This represents approximately
                                                                                                 both current and future (which                            307,000 jobless individuals in
                                                                                                 will be elected in autumn),                               the country. This rate is
                                                                                                 must avoid the mistakes made                              expected to remain for some
                                                                                                 last year.                                                time during 2021 and even
                                                                                                                                                           decrease further forward in
                                                                                                 As we could expect, the                                   2022, once the economy can
                                                                                                 prolonged state of emergency                              operate without limitations.
                                                                                                 affected the forecasts for GDP.
                                                                                                 In general, we are still                                  One big question mark still
                                                                                                 expecting a rebound in H2                                 hangs over inflation. There
                                                                                                 2021     from     the    current                          were several scenarios warning
                                                                                                 slowdown and through 2022.                                about the inevitability of
                                                                                                 According        to       Oxford                          increasing consumer prices
                                                                                                 Economics, the        forecasted                          however, many economists
                                                                                                 growth for this year is 3.3%.                             and institutions are now
                                                                                                 Industry and exports are still                            forecasting a much more
                                                                                                 the main economic engines,                                conservative outlook for Czech
                                                                                                 even with several bottlenecks                             Republic, ranging from 2.0% to
                                                                                                 in supply chains that can limit                           2.5% in 2021.
                                                                                                 their outputs. By the time
                                                                                                 shops       re-open,      strong

                                                      Gross domestic product                      8,0
                                                      (%)
                                                                                                  6,0

                                                                                                  4,0

                                                                                                  2,0

                                                                                                  0,0

                                                                                                 -2,0

                                                                                                 -4,0

                                                                                                 -6,0

                                                                                                 -8,0
                                                                                                                                                            2018

                                                                                                                                                                                 2021
                                                                                                          2011

                                                                                                                 2012

                                                                                                                        2013

                                                                                                                               2014

                                                                                                                                      2015

                                                                                                                                             2016

                                                                                                                                                    2017

                                                                                                                                                                   2019

                                                                                                                                                                          2020

                                                                                                                                                                                        2022

                                                                                                                                                                                               2023

                                                                                                                                                                                                      2024

                                                                                                           Czech Republic                                  Czech Republic predictions
                                                                                                           Eurozone                                        Eurozone predictions
                                                      Sources: Colliers International, Oxford Economics
3

                                                                                                           Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
                                                                                                           Q1 |Czech Republic
Prague office market

                                  New supply and vacancy               Both        projects        were
                                                                       refurbishments       of     older
                                  The first quarter of the year        properties.     Hybernská      1,
                                  can sometimes be a little            located in the city centre near
                                  overlooked, especially after         náměstí     Republiky,     added
                                  traditionally  strong     fourth     1,500 sq m and Olbrachtova 5,
                                  quarters. But in 2021, when          in Prague 4, added 2,000 sq m.
                                  everyone in the Czech Republic       With the increasing age of a
                                  is     hoping     for      some      large part of the stock, we may
                                  improvement        either     in     well see many landlords
                                  business or in life itself, the      consider refurbishment or
                                  situation on the Prague office       even change of use, as a
                                  market has broken from               reaction to the city’s housing
                                  tradition.                           crisis. The current modern
                                                                       office    stock     in    Prague
                                  In the first quarter of 2021, just   decreased slightly to 3.69
                                  two      developments       were     million sq m, due to the
                                  completed and added a total of       exclusion of several buildings
                                  3,500 sq m to the market. This       which were no longer offered
                                  represents one of the lowest         for commercial leasing.
                                  levels in the market’s history.

Top 3 Transactions                 Tenant                       Property            Transaction
of Q1 2021
                                   Novartis                     Gemini              Renegotiation

                                   New Flex Centre              BB Centrum B        New lease
Sources: Prague Research Forum,
Colliers International             Sweco Hydroprojekt           Táborská 31         Renegotiation
4        Q1 |Czech Republic
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International

                                                      Modern office stock &                                                      Occupied Stock                                           Vacant Stock
                                                      vacancy in Prague
                                                      districts                         1 000 000
                                                      (sq m)
                                                                                         900 000
                                                                                         800 000
                                                                                         700 000
                                                                                         600 000
                                                                                         500 000
                                                                                         400 000
                                                                                         300 000
                                                                                         200 000
                                                                                         100 000
                                                                                                0

                                                                                                                                                                          Prague 6
                                                                                                       Prague 1

                                                                                                                     Prague 2

                                                                                                                                   Prague 3

                                                                                                                                                Prague 4

                                                                                                                                                             Prague 5

                                                                                                                                                                                       Prague 7

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Prague 8

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Prague 9

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Prague 10
                                                      Sources: Prague Research Forum,
                                                      Colliers International

                                                      Vacancy rate
                                                      development                                                  Prague                       City Centre                          Inner City                     Outer City

                                                                                         9,0%
                                                                                         8,0%
                                                                                         7,0%
                                                                                         6,0%
                                                                                         5,0%
                                                                                         4,0%
                                                                                         3,0%
                                                                                         2,0%
                                                                                         1,0%
                                                                                         0,0%
                                                                                                    2018          2019          2019          2019         2019         2020         2020         2020        2020         2021
                                                                                                     Q4            Q1            Q2            Q3           Q4           Q1           Q2           Q3          Q4           Q1
                                                      Sources: Prague Research Forum,
                                                      Colliers International

                                                      Gross take-up
                                                      (sq m)                                                           Q1                              Q2                            Q3                       Q4

                                                                                   600 000

                                                                                   500 000

                                                                                   400 000

                                                                                   300 000

                                                                                   200 000

                                                                                   100 000

                                                                                            0
                                                      Sources: Prague Research Forum,                 2016                      2017                 2018                 2019                    2020                    2021
                                                      Colliers International
5

The expected level of supply         totalled 45,200 sq m in Q1.

                                                                         Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
                                                                         Q1 |Czech Republic
for the remainder of 2021 is         With lower levels of expected
just 65,800 sq m, from which         supply, we recommend that
over 55% is already pre-leased.      tenants act earlier to secure
Next year looks similar, with        their desired office space,
78,300 sq m of space under           particularly   within    new
active construction and due for      projects.
completion in 2022. On the
more optimistic side, many           The biggest transaction of the
projects       have      entered     quarter was, without a doubt,
construction phases in recent        the renegotiation of Novartis in
months, including the long           Gemini B in Prague 4, with a
awaited Masaryčka by Penta,          size of 14,300 sq m. Among the
with approximately 25,000 sq         other major deals of the
m, and PORT 7 by Skanska with        quarter, we include a new lease
30,600 sq m. Both projects are       of flex-office centre in BB
scheduled for delivery in 2023.      Centrum B in Prague 4 (3,300
Furthermore, the market has          sq m), the renegotiation of
also     recorded    a    decent     Sweco       Hydroprojekt      in
pipeline,     with    numerous       Táborská 31 in Prague 4 (2,900
projects waiting to secure a         sq m) and the expansion of
sufficient pre-lease in order to     Livesport in Aspira Business
proceed with construction or,        Centre in Prague 5 (2,200 sq
as a condition of financing.         m).
As for current vacancy, we are       Although     sub-leases    have
experiencing a slow, but             attracted a lot of attention on
increasing trend. By the end of      the market recently, they only
Q1 2021, approximately 7.6%          contributed to Q1 take-up with
of modern offices in Prague          a 4% share, or 3,600 sq m in
were      vacant,   representing     total. But to remain objective,
280,600 sq m. This represent         several    units   that    were
an increase of 60 basis points       available for sub-lease, were
quarter-on-quarter and 220           re-claimed by the respective
bps year-on-year. In addition to     landlords and leased directly.
this, the sublease market is still
quite strong and offers a            Rents and incentives
further 75,500 sq m of space
for a variety of conditions,         Although vacancy is rising
including      below      market     slightly, demand is still solid
standard prices and contract         and      occupiers     who    are
assignments.                         currently looking for new
                                     offices have a wider range of
Demand                               choices. Thanks to this fact,
                                     landlords are offering higher
Take-up in Q1 is sometimes           fit-out     contributions     and
overshadowed        by    strong     slightly     longer     rent-free
demand at the end of the year,       periods,     than     we     were
but in the current quarter, the      recording in 2019. However,
numbers are a bit more               reality strongly differs by
optimistic.    Gross     take-up     developer        or      property
accounted for 90,200 sq m, an        condition. Prime headline rents
increase year-on-year of 30%.        in the city centre remained at
Demand is still strongly driven      the previous range of €22.00 to
by renegotiations, as they           €22.50. Rents for the best
represent share of 46% on the        inner-city      offices     range
gross figure. Pre-leasing activity   between €15.50 and €17.00
accounted for an 11% share on        and prime office space in outer
gross take-up.                       city locations can be leased
Net demand, calculated from          monthly for between €13.50
newly     leased      space,         and €15.00 per sq m.
expansions and pre-leases
6

                                                      Key market figures
                              Q1 |Czech Republic
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International

                                                                Office Stock (sq m)                           Vacancy Rate

                                                                3.69 mln                                      6.7%

                                                                Q1 Gross Demand (sq m)                        Prime Rent

                                                                90,200                                        €22.50

                                                                Q1 Supply (sq m)                              Under Construction (sq m)

                                                                3,500                                         199,700

                                                                            Outlook                             One promising fact is that
                                                                                                                some of the largest, or most
                                                                            As the government plans for         significant projects, which have
                                                                            lifting the restrictions are in     been anticipated for years,
                                                                            sight, and public testing and       have entered construction
                                                                            vaccination    processes    are     phases, or are very close to it.
                                                                            already under way, we believe       Therefore, the pipeline new
                                                                            that we will soon get at least      supply for 2023 and beyond
                                                                            some idea about the condition       could well be above average
                                                                            and also about the intentions       again.    A    question    mark
                                                                            of companies active on the          however still hangs over the
                                                                            Prague office market. It is         new building law and if it will
                                                                            certain that an acceleration of     really positively impact the
                                                                            activity on the market will not     permitting process, as a
                                                                            be immediate. We still expect       number of the proposed
                                                                            the vacancy rate to rise by         projects have been stuck in this
                                                                            additional basis points, but it     process for years.
                                                                            will be inevitably softened by
                                                                            low supply at some point in
                                                                            near future.
For more information

Office Agency                                                              Research & Forecasting

Petr Žalský                                                                Josef Stanko
+420 601 056 858                                                           +420 728 175 024
petr.zalsky@colliers.com                                                   josef.stanko@colliers.com

Managing Partner

Tewfik Sabongui
+420 777 150 669
tewfik.sabongui@colliers.com

This report gives information based primarily on Colliers International data, which
may be helpful in anticipating trends in the property sector. However, no warranty is      Na Příkopě 859/22
                                                                                           Slovanský dům B/C
given as to the accuracy of, and no liability for negligence is accepted in relation to,
the forecasts, figures or conclusions contained in this report and they must not be
relied on for investment or any other purposes. This report does not constitute and
must not be treated as investment or valuation advice or an offer to buy or sell           110 00 Praha 1
property. ( May 2021 ) © 2021 Colliers International.
Colliers International is the licensed trading name of Colliers International Property
Advisers UK LLP which is a limited liability partnership registered in England and
Wales with registered number OC385143. Our registered office is at 50 George
Street, London W1U 7GA.
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