PRIME LIVING IN SINGAPORE'S DOWNTOWN - INSIGHT PAPER SEPTEMBER 2021 - Edmund Tie

Page created by Lillian Padilla
 
CONTINUE READING
PRIME LIVING IN SINGAPORE'S DOWNTOWN - INSIGHT PAPER SEPTEMBER 2021 - Edmund Tie
INSIGHT
              PAPER

              SEPTEMBER 2021

PRIME LIVING IN
SINGAPORE’S DOWNTOWN
PRIME LIVING IN SINGAPORE'S DOWNTOWN - INSIGHT PAPER SEPTEMBER 2021 - Edmund Tie
Introduction

                Over the past few decades, the Central Business District (CBD), which comprises mainly
                Raffles Place, Shenton Way, and Tanjong Pagar, has served as a bastion of commercial
                activities and anchored Singapore’s transformation from a third-world country to a first-
                world country. The traditional business district typically comprised commercial buildings
                with some ancillary retail uses. Downtown living was largely unheard of until 2002, when
                the government launched the site for The Sail @ Marina Bay, which became the first major
                residential development in the Marina Bay area.

                While the CBD has witnessed a growing trend towards downtown living, recent
                developments appear to have put a brake to the momentum of the trend. Decentralisation
                of commercial activities is increasingly commonplace and the pandemic has helped
                entrench work-from-home practices as part of a new hybrid work model.

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                                                                         1
PRIME LIVING IN SINGAPORE'S DOWNTOWN - INSIGHT PAPER SEPTEMBER 2021 - Edmund Tie
Overview

                In this paper, we examine the evolution          The combination of other real estate
                and prospects for downtown living, which         uses such as commercial, retail, F&B
                broadly comprises Districts 1, 2, and 7. A       and hospitality in the form of mixed-
                decade ago, the key notable projects in          use developments have injected greater
                the downtown were Emerald Garden,                vibrancy and convenience into the
                Icon Residence, The Sail @ Marina                downtown and broadened the scope
                Bay, Marina Bay Residences, The Clift,           of living for the residents. By the end of
                and One Shenton (2011). Over the last            2020, there were 11,745 residential units
                decade, new notable mixed-use projects           in the downtown, which represents a
                completed in the CBD include Lumiere,            growth of 40% from the stock about five
                Marina Bay Suites, V on Shenton, Marina          years ago. Comparatively, the traditional
                One Residences, and Wallich Residence.           prime areas i.e. Districts 9, 10, and 11,
                In the Beach Road area, there have been          saw a significantly more muted growth of
                new projects like South Beach Residences         3% over the past five years.
                and DUO Residences.

                The combination of other real estate uses such as commercial,
                retail, F&B and hospitality in the form of mixed-use developments
                have injected greater vibrancy and convenience into the
                downtown and broadened the scope of living for the residents.

                Selected downtown projects with other real estate uses
                Project                   Year of completion   No. of units   Other uses within development
                Emerald Garden                  1998               265                     Retail
                Icon Residence                  2007               646                     Retail
                The Sail @ Marina Bay           2008              1,111                Office, retail
                Marina Bay Residences           2010               428                 Office, retail
                One Shenton                     2011               341                     Retail
                The Clift                       2011               312                     Retail
                Lumiere                         2012               168                     Retail
                Marina Bay Suites               2014               221                 Office, retail
                South Beach Residences          2016               190              Hotel, office, retail
                V on Shenton                    2017               510                     Office
                Duo Residences                  2017               660              Hotel, office, retail
                Marina One Residences           2017              1,042                Office, retail
                Wallich Residence               2018               181              Hotel, office, retail
                                                                                           Source: Various sources

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                                                                                  2
PRIME LIVING IN SINGAPORE'S DOWNTOWN - INSIGHT PAPER SEPTEMBER 2021 - Edmund Tie
Master Plan intention for Singapore’s downtown

                                       In the past, much like
                               Manhattan of New York City and the
                             financial district of London, Singapore’s
                          downtown was a bustling work district plied
                         by masses of office workers in the day. In the
                        evenings and over the weekends, most signs of
                        activities would recede, leaving behind a ghost
                      town of towering office developments stripped of
                       their daytime bustle. Market forces, which often
                        attract office uses as the sole highest and best
                        use of the central areas of cities, tend to result
                         in a homogenous district with few other uses
                            that could meaningfully attract transient
                               population outside working hours, or
                                    retain a live-in population.

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                                          3
PRIME LIVING IN SINGAPORE'S DOWNTOWN - INSIGHT PAPER SEPTEMBER 2021 - Edmund Tie
With rising priority, the Urban                    Acknowledging the importance of
            Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) planning           connectivity in activating an area,
            intent for Singapore’s downtown is for it to       the government has factored such
            become more than just an area populated            considerations into the long-term concept
            by office towers and transient population.         plan for the downtown. New MRT lines
            URA envisions the downtown as an area              have been planned or implemented to
            of mixed uses, such as retail, F&B, and            serve the downtown area, namely the
            residential, which houses a substantial            Downtown Line, Circle Line, and Thomson-
            live-in population for a more optimised            East Coast Line. These additional MRT lines
            use of land throughout the week. One               that span the island fairly comprehensively
            planning strategy that URA has undertaken          are meant to support the existing rail lines
            in achieving this vision is through zoning         that historically serve the downtown area,
            multiple land parcels in the downtown              namely the North South Line and East
            as White sites for future mixed-use                West Line. The improved rail network
            developments, which are developments               substantially enhances connectivity,
            that comprise two or more different uses           thereby increasing convenience for
            e.g. residential with retail or residential,       people travelling to and from downtown
            office and retail, or even office, retail, hotel   for recreational and visiting purposes
            and residential. These uses complement and         in addition to work. This contributes to
            synergise one another, and when integrated         growing attractiveness of the downtown
            with or located in close proximity to an           as a location for residences.
            Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) station, will result
            in developments that are more convenient,
            sustainable, and vibrant for users.

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                                                                       4
PRIME LIVING IN SINGAPORE'S DOWNTOWN - INSIGHT PAPER SEPTEMBER 2021 - Edmund Tie
As part of the Master Plan 2019, URA has       The Master Plan also reviewed the
            also released a set of CBD rejuvenation        planning intent for the downtown on a
            schemes that seek to renew Singapore’s         precinct level, which will be realised in
            downtown and transform it into a dynamic       stages as and when new developments
            24/7 downtown and global financial hub.        or redevelopments occur. For example,
            The CBD Incentive Scheme, for example,         it is envisaged that the Cecil and Anson
            allows for development intensification and     precincts will be transformed from an
            a wider range of permissible land uses such    older precinct of predominantly office
            as residential and hotel for older (at least   developments to dynamic and lively urban
            20 years) offices located in the downtown.     neighbourhoods with a wide variety
            Such schemes have already resulted in the      of mixed uses. Cecil is envisioned as a
            announcement of redevelopment plans,           precinct that houses retail arcades that
            such as AXA Tower and Fuji Xerox Towers.       provide shortcuts through buildings, abuzz
                                                           with convenient amenities, adding an
                                                           element of surprise and delight, not unlike
                                                           what we see in other commercial centres
                                                           like Sydney. The plans for Anson precinct
                                                           revolve mainly around the improvement of
                                                           connectivity and the public realm through
                                                           the injection of courtyards and pockets
                                                           of open space that will serve as outdoor
                                                           ‘living rooms’ for both the working and
                                                           residential communities of the area.

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                                                                  5
PRIME LIVING IN SINGAPORE'S DOWNTOWN - INSIGHT PAPER SEPTEMBER 2021 - Edmund Tie
Other upcoming developments in the CBD
            include Central Boulevard Towers just across the
            Lau Pa Sat market. In addition, URA has zoned
            multiple sites in the downtown area as White
            sites for mixed uses, with the most recent launch
            being the Marina View White site just across the
            UIC building. If awarded the downtown could
            see a new mixed-use development potentially
            housing 905 residential units, 540 hotel rooms,
            and up to 2,000 sqm of retail space, further
            strengthening the presence of mixed-use
            developments downtown.

            Government intention aside, market forces will
            continue to play a key role in determining the uses
            that eventually occur in the downtown area. In
            times when residential prices are holding strong
            and providing margins above that from developing
            offices, developers might be more inclined to
            consider the development of new residential or
            mixed-use developments downtown.

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                               6
PRIME LIVING IN SINGAPORE'S DOWNTOWN - INSIGHT PAPER SEPTEMBER 2021 - Edmund Tie
Benefits of downtown living

                                                 There are some notable differences between
                                                 the residential housing in the downtown
                                                 compared to the traditional prime areas.
                                                 For one, the downtown developments tend
                                                 to be larger scale mixed-use developments
                                                 that are integrated with the various MRT
                                                 stations. These integrated developments
                                                 also tend to provide seamless integration
                                                 of shared spaces, amenities, and services
                                                 within the development.

  South Beach Residences

  Connecting entrance to Esplanade MRT station

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                                                 7
PRIME LIVING IN SINGAPORE'S DOWNTOWN - INSIGHT PAPER SEPTEMBER 2021 - Edmund Tie
Additionally, the majority of residential
options downtown are completed more
recently and relatively younger than
those in the traditional prime areas. New
developments will offer the latest in-
home design, layouts, and smart home
technology. For example, One Bernam
offers a Smart Gateway that connects and
controls smart devices in your home from
one wireless hub, while push notifications
allow alerts to be received the moment
these devices sense irregularities at home.
At Marina One Residences, residents can
experience MySphere, which is a unified
mobile platform launched by M+S that
offers integrated smart live-work-play
management system that seamlessly
combines smart controls, community
                                              Marina One Residences
management, and lifestyle offerings.

                                                MySphere app

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                                   8
PRIME LIVING IN SINGAPORE'S DOWNTOWN - INSIGHT PAPER SEPTEMBER 2021 - Edmund Tie
The ease of connectivity and convenience meant homeowners
                      would likely be spending less time within the home and as a result,
                      residential units in downtown are relatively smaller compared to
                      those in the traditional prime areas. The smaller homes do reflect
                      the lifestyle choices of residents and their family structure as well.
                      For reference, the median size of downtown homes sold in Districts
                      1, 2, and 7 in 2020 was 700 sqft, about 35% smaller than the 1,076
                      sqft homes in the traditional prime areas.
                      Lifestyle wise, there are numerous amenities for live, work, and
                      play, all within close proximity. There are already established food
                      precincts along Tanjong Pagar Road and streets like Liang Seah
                      Street, Purvis Street and Tan Quee Lan Street. There are several
                      retail havens in the form of One Raffles Place, By the Bay, The Heart
                      in the Marina Bay precinct as well as other larger retail malls like
                      Suntec City and Bugis Junction in the Beach Road precinct. With
  Lau Pa Sat
                      easy access to practically all essential amenities, there is no need
                      for private transportation, this would appeal to the environmentally
                      conscious. The downtown area also offers an element of exclusivity
                      and privacy. The transient working population and the low
                      concentration of families with young children mean that a tranquil
                      environment can be expected from living downtown.
                      Recreational options are aplenty with Gardens by the Bay and the
                      Marina Barrage, which are popular and scenic locations for cycling
                      and kite flying. There are numerous gyms and yoga studios in the
                      vicinity offering classes for the health conscious. There are also
                      numerous luxury hotels around the downtown for residents looking
                      to go on a staycation.

  Marina Barrage

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                                           9
The downtown area is also home to
buildings of different eras and styles. There
are buildings of the neoclassical style like
Victoria Theatre and Concert Hall, Fullerton
Hotel, and CHIJMES, the Art Deco style like
Cathay Building and Ascott Raffles Place
(former Asia Insurance Building), the Brutalist
style like OCBC Centre and Singapore Land
Tower, and more futuristic architecture
that is embodied by buildings such as the
Esplanade and Marina Bay Sands Integrated
Resort. Downtown residents also enjoy
proximity to Singapore’s historic and ethnic
districts e.g. Boat Quay, Chinatown, and
Kampung Glam. The area is scattered with
numerous museums and theatres too such as
the ArtScience Museum, Asian Civilisations
Museum, National Museum, Red Dot Design
Museum, National Gallery, Esplanade and
Marina Bay Sands Theatre. Many of them are
                                                  Chinatown
found in the Civic District of Singapore.

  Gardens by the Bay & Marina Bay Sands

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                           10
Resident and ownership demographics

Due to the wide range of lifestyle options offered by                common, as are singles. In fact, singles form almost 40% of
downtown living, the demographics of downtown residents              the residents in the Downtown Core planning area. While
are quite unique. Almost half of downtown residents are              there are childcare centres in the downtown, there is a lack
in their 20s and 30s, as compared to about a quarter of              of primary and secondary schools, which could explain the
residents in traditional prime areas. Small families are             low proportion of families.

                                               Breakdown of residents by age groups

                                                        Age of residents

                                       16.4%
Available ownership data suggests a higher proportion             On foreign demand, over the last three years i.e. 2018
of Housing Development Board (HDB) upgraders and                  to 2020, the share of foreigner purchase is consistently
foreigners purchasing properties in the downtown                  higher in the downtown. This can be attributed to the
relative to the traditional prime areas. One reason for           higher familiarity of foreigners with iconic attractions like
interest from HDB upgraders could be that the units               Singapore Flyer, Marina Bay Sands, and the neighbouring
downtown are more affordable due to the smaller                   locality. In terms of the key nationalities, the Chinese
unit sizing. This is supported by the median prices of            and Americans are the key foreign buyers scooping up
transacted units in 2020, which showed a median price of          properties in downtown. The Malaysians and Indonesians
$1.5 mn for units in the downtown compared to $2.1 mn             are also active buyers in the downtown.
for units in the traditional prime areas.
                                                                  The downtown will likely continue to attract the well-
Although most property purchases are likely to be                 heeled younger population who seek the convenience
for investments, there is a growing trend of owners               and thrills of living in downtown. The draw for foreigners
purchasing such properties for own stay, and they could           will also remain, especially those from cities with
be young professionals looking for a home offering easy           sizeable residential communities in the business districts,
access to their workplaces in town. Retirees looking              and those who believe in the growth potential of the
to downsize from their current larger units could                 downtown property market in Singapore. Anecdotally, we
form another potential buyer group, in particular for             also see foreigners purchasing properties for their young
developments that provide easy access to healthcare               children who work in the CBD.
services and other amenities.

                                              Share of foreigner purchases
                                                                                                     Traditional prime areas

                           25%                             2018                           14%
         New prime areas

                           23%                             2019                           14%

                           13%                             2020                           10%

                                                                                                                                    Source: URA

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                                                                                            12
Conclusion

Looking ahead, we can expect downtown living to             Over the next 3-5 years, we are positive on the growth
develop with increasing convenience and vibrancy, and       outlook in the Tanjong Pagar and Bugis/ Beach Road
we are sanguine on how mixed-use developments can           precincts, especially for mixed-use developments that
enrich the quality of a holistic living experience in the   are integrated with the transport node. Tanjong Pagar is
new normal. Complementary real estate uses can greatly      already an area of bustling daytime activities and vibrant
synergise one another, and when integrated with or          nightlife. The upcoming and potential redevelopment
located in close proximity to a Mass Rapid Transit (MRT)    of AXA Tower and International Plaza respectively could
station, will result in spaces that are more convenient,    increase the residential population and further add spark
sustainable, and vibrant for users. Already, mixed-use      to this vivacious hub. Similarly, the cultural Bugis precinct
developments such as the MBFC and Marina One have           can expect a new injection of life in the near term, arising
brought alive the Marina Bay while the development of       from the upcoming Guoco Midtown and The M projects,
Guoco Tower and Wallich Residence have accelerated          both mixed-use developments that are integrated with or
the gentrification effects in the Tanjong Pagar area, in    in close proximity to the Bugis MRT station.
addition to the other live-in population in the area.

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                                                                        13
Over the next 5 to 10 years, we can expect the introduction of modern          Backed by growing demand for
mixed-use developments and the rejuvenation of ageing pure-office districts    downtown living and ongoing
to contribute to the convenience and excitement of downtown living. The        government efforts to bring about a
downtown can also look forward to synergistic growth through the integration   wider variety of real estate uses in
with the development of the adjacent Greater Southern Waterfront (GSW)         and around the downtown, prime
that extends from Pasir Panjang to Marina East. GSW will be developed into     living in Singapore’s downtown is
a new major gateway for sustainable suburban living and the land uses there,   poised to become a lifestyle that is
such as schools, will serve the downtown population and further enhance the    desired by many.
attractiveness of downtown living.

EDMUND TIE RESEARCH                                                                                   14
CONTACTS                                     Desmond Sim
                                             Chief Executive Officer
                                             +65 6393 2366
                                             desmond.sim@etcsea.com

PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
Valuation Advisory                           Property Tax Advisory &                      Hospitality                                  Property Management
Poh Kwee Eng                                 Statutory Valuation                          Kwok Sai Kuai                                Kwok Sai Kuai
Executive Director                           Ng Poh Chue                                  Executive Director                           Executive Director
Regional Head of                             Executive Director                           +65 6417 9229                                Regional Head of
Valuation Advisory                           +65 6393 2515                                saikuai.kwok@etcsea.com                      Property Management
+65 6393 2312                                pohchue.ng@etcsea.com                                                                     +65 6417 9229
kweeeng.poh@etcsea.com                                                                    Tay Hock Soon                                saikuai.kwok@etcsea.com
                                                                                          Senior Director
Nicholas Cheng                               Research & Consulting                        +65 6887 0088                                Paul Wong
Executive Director                                                                        tayhs@treetops.com.sg                        Senior Director
+65 6393 2317                                Lam Chern Woon                                                                            +65 6417 9225
nicholas.cheng@etcsea.com                    Senior Director                                                                           paul.wong@etcsea.com
                                             +65 6393 2340
                                             chernwoon.lam@etcsea.com

AGENCY SERVICES                                                                                                                        REGIONAL OFFICES
Investment Advisory                                                                       Business Space & Retail                      Malaysia
Poh Kwee Eng                                 Swee Shou Fern                               Chua Wei Lin                                 Eddy Wong
Executive Director                           Executive Director                           Executive Director                           Managing Director
+65 6393 2312                                Singapore & Cross-border                     Regional Head of                             +603 2024 6380
kweeeng.poh@etcsea.com                       Investment Advisory                          Business Space                               eddy.wong@ntl.my
                                             +65 6393 2523                                +65 6393 2326
                                             shoufern.swee@etcsea.com                     weilin.chua@etcsea.com                       Thailand
                                                                                                                                       Christopher Ng
Auction & Sales                              Residential                                  China Desk
                                                                                                                                       Chief Operating Officer
Chua Wei Lin                                 Margaret Thean                               Desmond Sim                                  EDMUND TIE Group
Executive Director                           Executive Director                           Chief Executive Officer                      +65 6393 2376
+65 6393 2326                                Regional Head of Residential                 +65 6393 2366                                christopher.ng@etcsea.com
weilin.chua@etcsea.com                       +65 6393 2383                                desmond.sim@etcsea.com
                                                                                                                                       Punnee Sritanyalucksana
                                             margaret.thean@etcsea.com
Joy Tan                                                                                                                                Chief Operating Officer
Senior Director                              Karen Ong                                                                                 EDMUND TIE Thailand
+65 6393 2505                                Executive Director                                                                        +66 2257 0499 ext 101
joy.tan@etcsea.com                           +65 6393 2366                                                                             punnee.s@etcthailand.co.th
                                             karen.ong@etcsea.com

   Authors:
   Lam Chern Woon                            Alphonso Lim
   Senior Director                           Assistant Manager
   Research & Consulting                     Research & Consulting
   +65 6393 2340                             +65 6393 2341
   chernwoon.lam@etcsea.com                  alphonso.lim@etcsea.com
   For more information, please contact us at research.sg@etcsea.com.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document and all accompanying presentations (the “Materials”) are approximates only, is subject to change
without prior notice, and is provided solely for general information purposes only. While all reasonable skill and care has been taken in the production of the
Materials, EDMUND TIE (the “Company”) make no representations or warranties, express or implied, regarding the completeness, accuracy, correctness,
reliability, suitability, or availability of the Materials, and the Company is under no obligation to subsequently correct it. You should not rely on the Materials
as a basis for making any legal, business, or any other decisions. Where you rely on the Materials, you do so at your own risk and shall hold the Company,
its employees, subsidiaries, related corporations, associates, and affiliates harmless to you to and any third parties to the fullest extent permitted by law for any losses,
damages, or harm arising directly or indirectly from your reliance on the Materials, including any liability arising out of or in connection with any fault or negligence. Any
disclosure, use, copying, dissemination, or circulation of the Materials is strictly prohibited, unless you have obtained prior consent from the Company, and have credited the
Company for the Materials.                                                                                                                                © EDMUND TIE 2021

Edmund Tie & Company (SEA) Pte Ltd                                                                                                                  We are now on
5 Shenton Way, #13-05 UIC Building, Singapore 068808.                                                                                        Scan the QR code with
T. +65 6293 3228 | F. +65 6298 9328 | mail.sg@etcsea.com | Please visit www.etcsea.com and follow us on                                      WeChat app to visit
                                                                                                                                             our WeChat account.
You can also read