Published in September 2018 Berlin - Residential City Profile - JLL
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Residential City Profile Berlin Berlin | 1st half of 2018 Published in September 2018
Housing market Berlin
Demand pressure intensifying due to backlog of building permits granted in 2017 reached its highest level
housing projects in the pipeline since 1997, as Berlin’s building departments approved the
For years, Berlin has recorded a high annual population construction of over 21,000 new apartments, 2% more
growth of around 40,000-60,000, due mainly to inward mi- than in 2016. At around 12,800 new apartments, even the
gration. As a result of this long-term trend and excess de- number of new-build residential completions was almost
mand of around 70,000 new apartments in recent years, 20% higher in 2017 compared to 2016. However, the dyna-
the Berlin city development office anticipates a need for mic increase in building permits and completion figures
around 194,000 new apartments by 2030. The number of was accompanied by an increased number of building
projects awaiting a starting date. In 2017, the number of
building projects approved but not yet completed was
Housing supply and demand for just under 50,000, partly due to insufficient capacity in the
new buildings Berlin construction industry, and to speculation. Although the
completion figures are expected to rise in the near future,
once again the volume of actual completions this year is
likely to fall short of the Berlin Senate’s target of 20,000
new apartments per annum by 2021. The scarcity of
available building land also limits new residential const-
ruction in Berlin. Although the focus of housing construc-
tion policy has shifted more to the conversion and re-den-
sification of neighbourhoods, the designation of new
neighbourhood protection areas (Milieuschutzgebiete) in
the city – four new neighbourhoods in the Mitte district
alone since June 2018 – will in turn restrict opportunities
for housing developers at a political level. Demand pres-
sure is therefore maintained and is continuing to drive
rents and purchase prices upwards. The stronger rise in
average living costs compared to the average household
net income has caused the already high rental burden ac-
ross Berlin to rise by around 3.5 percentage points to
Source: destatis, BBSR housing forecast, Municipal statistical offices, JLL;
Status: July 2018. 38.3% over the past six months.
Selected developments under constructions
Name Location Residential units Completion date
Several residential projects Europacity Moabit approx. 2,800 2025
Mein Falkenberg Falkenberg approx. 1,200 2021
Mittenmang Berlin Moabit approx. 1,000 2019
Pepitahöfe Spandau approx.1,000 2018
High rise building “Grandaire” Mitte approx. 270 2020
Source: JLL; Status: July 2018
Residential City Profile | H1 2018 Berlin 2Sharp rise in rents in peripheral areas
For the year as a whole, the median rent increased by just
under 8.0% across all segments and years of construction,
to reach €11.65/sqm/month by mid-2018. Rents in the lower
price segments rose, especially in peripheral locations, due
Distribution of rental listings by price group to the shortage of housing across the city. The decentralised
districts of Pankow and Marzahn-Hellersdorf recorded the
strongest annual growth of around 13% and 12% respec-
tively. A spatially differentiated trend is also evident in the
new-build segment. Asking rents in the Tempelhof-Schöne-
berg and Neukölln districts show very high growth rates of
approximately 23.5% and 16% respectively. Here, demand
vastly outstrips the supply of new apartments due to the lack
of available building land. Conversely, the average rent for
new apartments in Mitte is stagnating at €17.05/sqm/month.
Around 22% more apartments were advertised on the
market between the first half of 2017 and the first half of
2018. Although most asking rents continued to range from
€11.00-13.00/sqm in the first half of 2018, the number of
apartments offered in the higher price segments at least
doubled in the respective price segment. However, rental
offers in the lower price segments (up to €9.00/sqm/month)
Source: IDN immodaten, JLL; Status: July 2018
decreased by over a third.
Rental price bands for listed apartments Berlin Development of rental prices
Source: IDN immodaten, JLL; Status: July 2018 Source: IDN immodaten, JLL; Status: July 2018
Residential City Profile | H1 2018 Berlin 3Asking rental prices Berlin
ì
A 10
ì
A 10
ì
A 11
ì
A 111
ì
A 10
ìA 114
Pankow
Reinickendorf
ìA 111
ìA 105
ì A 10
Mitte Lichtenberg
Marzahn-
Hellersdorf
Spandau ìA 100
Charlottenburg- Friedrichshain-
Wilmersdorf Kreuzberg
ìA 104 ì
A 100
ì
A 115
Steglitz-
ì A 103 Tempelhof-
Schöneberg Neukölln
Zehlendorf
ìA 113 Treptow-
Köpenick
ìA 10
ì
A 115 ì A 113
0 5 10 Kilometers ì
A 12
ì ì
A 10
ì A 10
A 13
Rent Level
Average in €/sqm/month on postcode level
< 9.00 13.00 < 15.00 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
9.00 < 11.00 >= 15.00 Green Area Other Area
11.00 < 13.00
Source: JLL, IDN Immodaten GmbH, Infas Geodaten GmbH
Residential City Profile | H1 2018 Berlin 4Highest price dynamic in the lower purchase
price segment
In H1 2018, the average asking price exceeded €4,000/sqm
for the first time. At 9.4%, this was the highest increase in
the purchase prices for condominium apartments to date
Distribution of condo listings by price group over a half-year period. Analysed over a 12-month period,
the average asking price has increased by approx. 12.6%. In
general, the home-ownership market is developing in a si-
milar way to the rental market: in the lower price segment,
prices rose most strongly (+19%) compared to the same pe-
riod last year. The Marzahn-Hellersdorf district stands out
with the highest growth rates (+23% to 26%) across all price
segments. However, the increase in the top price segment
for condominium apartments was even higher in the Reini-
ckendorf district: prices rose by almost 27% within a year.
In the new-build segment, purchase prices increased most
strongly in the Tempelhof-Schöneberg district (+ 28.8%).
Around a third more offers were recorded in the market for
condominium apartments in the first half of 2018 compared
to H1 2017. Similar to the rental housing market, offers in the
lower price segments decreased sharply in some cases, while
the number of offers in the medium and higher price seg-
Source: IDN immodaten, JLL; Status: July 2018
ments increased by at least 25% in each case.
Purchase price bands for condominiums Berlin Development of purchase prices for condominiums
Source: IDN immodaten, JLL; Status: July 2018 Source: IDN immodaten, JLL; Status: July 2018
Residential City Profile | H1 2018 Berlin 5Asking condominium prices Berlin
ì
A 10
ì
A 10
ì
A 11
ì
A 111
ì
A 10
ìA 114
Pankow
Reinickendorf
ìA 111
ìA 105
ì A 10
Mitte Lichtenberg
Marzahn-
Hellersdorf
Spandau ìA 100
Charlottenburg- Friedrichshain-
Wilmersdorf Kreuzberg
ìA 104 ì
A 100
ì
A 115
Steglitz-
ì A 103 Tempelhof-
Schöneberg Neukölln
Zehlendorf
ìA 113 Treptow-
Köpenick
ìA 10
ì
A 115 ì A 113
0 5 10 Kilometers ì
A 12
ì ì
A 10
ì A 10
A 13
Condominium price level
Average in €/sqm on postcode level
< 2,500 4,500 < 5,500 Water Area Industrial or
Traffic Area
2,500 < 3,500 >= 5,500 Green Area Other Area
3,500 < 4,500
Source: JLL, IDN Immodaten GmbH, Infas Geodaten GmbH
Residential City Profile | H1 2018 Berlin 6Contacts
Dr. Konstantin Kortmann Thomas Zabel Ralf Kemper
Head of Residential Investment Head of Residential Development Head of Valuation & Transaction
Germany Germany Advisory Germany
Frankfurt Berlin Frankfurt
tel +49 (0) 69 2003 1390 +49 (0) 30 886600 115 tel +49 (0) 69 2003 1092
konstantin.kortmann@eu.jll.com thomas.zabel@eu.jll.com ralf.kemper@eu.jll.com
Helge Scheunemann Roman Heidrich Sebastian Grimm
Head of Research Germany Team Leader Residential Valuation Team Leader Residential Valuation
Hamburg Advisory Berlin Advisory Frankfurt
+49 (0)40 350011 225 Berlin Frankfurt
helge.scheunemann@eu.jll.com tel +49 (0) 30 203980 106 tel +49 (0) 69 2003 1196
roman.heidrich@eu.jll.com sebastian.grimm@eu.jll.com
Author
Jirka Stachen
Research
Berlin
tel +49 (0) 30 203980 151
jirka.stachen@eu.jll.com
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