PWC AUTOFACTS THE TURNING OF THE TIDE - IMPACTS OF THE AUTOMOTIVE TRANSFORMATION ON THE VALUE CHAIN
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
www.pwc.de
PwC Autofacts®
The turning of the tide –
impacts of the automotive transformation on the value chain
Research results on how the
automotive transformation
will impact value add
October 2018
The automotive transformation will bring more vehicle sales, more value per car, and more business
for the automotive value chain – still, there are challenges for OEMs and suppliers
Autonomous driving changes Technological Changes Electric drivetrains require new
the way vehicles are used and owned technologies and capabilities
More Sales More Value
New forms of vehicle capabilities change the Social and political impulses drive market
existing mobility structure, leading to an demand for alternative powertrain
increase of demand for new types of mobility technologies
Due to new usage patterns, new vehicle Vehicle component and system costs will
demand will increase structurally shift due to new technologies
Increase of Value Add
Reorientation of existing manufacturing processes Re-alignment of value-add between OEMs and suppliers
PwC Autofacts ® 2
As mobility is local by nature, so is the expected adaptation of new technologies and mobility patterns
between Europe, the US, and China due to political, cultural and technical differences
• Autonomous technologies may not be • Autonomous Robotaxis with limited • Electric vehicle penetration with significant
marketable before 2025, therefore mobility capabilities from 2025 on, wide-spread level lift due to legislative incentives
patterns are not expected to change notably 4/5 adoption after 2028 • Once available, autonomous technology will
until 2030 • Electric vehicle penetration increases due have strongest growth by attracting former
• Regulatory hurdles and consumer inertia due to legislative demands after 2020, and public-transport users with low prices and
to large legacy vehicle parc may lead to receives a significant boost as new mobility high convenience
delayed market adaption forms become established after 2025
PwC Autofacts ® 3
The introduction of autonomous driving capabilities will trigger the transformation of individual
mobility which will create new ways of using vehicles and increase overall mobility
Autonomous technology is expected to create new Autonomous vehicles will be used much more intensely than conventional cars,
markets for individual mobility types, driven by reducing the duration of their lifecycle and creating higher replacement
strong mobility demand. demand in spite of shrinking overall vehicle fleet.
Person-km per Year
Germany
1
0,9 Self-driven …
Trillions
0,8 … Privately Owned 208,000 13,500 15.4
0,7
0,6 … Shared 60,000 59,500 1.0
0,5
Autonomous …
0,4
0,3 … Privately Owned 252,000 42,000 6.0
0,2
… Shared 286,000 93,000 3.1
0,1
0
2018 2020 2025 2030 Lifecycle Mileage Annual Mileage Usage Years
Shared autonomous Personally owned autonomous
Forecast for 2030 – DE Normal Scenario
Shared driver-driven Personally owned driver-driven
PwC Autofacts ® 4
The transformation of mobility will all but decrease vehicle sales, while vehicle parc will shrink and
new mobility sub-markets will accelerate demand for alternative emission-free drivetrains
New Car Sales by Mobility Type New Car Sales by Autonomous Level New Car Sales by Drivetrain
Germany Germany Germany
4 4 4
Millions
Millions
Millions
3,5 3,5 3,5
3 3 3
2,5 2,5 2,5
2 2 2
1,5 1,5 1,5
1 1 1
0,5 0,5 0,5
0 0 0
2018 2020 2025 2030 2018 2020 2025 2030 2018 2020 2025 2030
Shared autonomous Personally owned autonomous Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Combustion Hybrid Electric
Shared driver-driven Personally owned driver-driven Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
• More intense use of autonomous and shared vehicles • Tech will allow level 4/5 adoption from 2028 on • Strong legislative push from 2020 on
• Quicker replacement creates additional new vehicle • Robotaxis with limited use from 2025 on • Sufficient public charging infrastructure ~2025
demand • Cost-of-operations tipping point differs by segment
and use pattern
PwC Autofacts ® 5
As vehicle sales and value per car increase, the total value add of new vehicles will grow accordingly –
creating significant overall growth opportunities for the automotive value chain
Total Sales, Total Cost per Vehicle Total Value Add
Cars sold in Germany Cars sold in Germany
4 21.000 € 80
Millions
Billions
3,9 20.500 € 70
3,8 20.000 € 60
19.500 €
3,7 50
19.000 €
3,6 40
18.500 €
3,5 30
18.000 €
3,4 20
17.500 €
3,3 17.000 € 10
3,2 16.500 € 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Powertrain Combustion Powertrain Electric Chassis
Electric/ Electronic Body Exterior
Sales Cost per Vehicle (rhs)
Interior Connected/ Autonomous
The acceleration of market dynamics in the new mobility segments increase Main growth areas are in E/E, interior and chassis components, as sensoring and
volume. Added content for autonomous driving and connectivity create new volume actuation become more important in all areas of the vehicle. Over the mid-term, electric
and cost dynamics in new and conventional technologies. powertrains create on-top growth opportunities.
PwC Autofacts ® 6
While conventional powertrains remain dominant in the mid-term, alternative drivetrains increase
total powertrain value add requiring new skills and additional investment
Average Cost per Vehicle Total Value Add Drivetrain
Cars sold in Germany Cars sold in Germany
40.000 € 30
Billions
35.000 €
25
30.000 €
20
25.000 €
20.000 € 15
15.000 €
10
10.000 €
5
5.000 €
0€ 0
2018 2020 2025 2030 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Average BEV Average ICE-V ICE Drivetrain Full Hybrid Components
Average PHEV Average FHEV Plug-In Hybrid Components Battery-Electric Drivetrain
BEV and PHEV costs are currently elevated by small-scale production but will The value add of total powertrain technologies is calculated on the basis of ongoing cost
decrease as volumes grow. As average battery capacity of BEV is assumed to rise – plus reductions of conventional components, while electric drivetrain components for
autonomous technology – value per car remains higher than pure ICE. BEV and hybrid powertrains create significant additional opportunities.
PwC Autofacts ® 7While mechanical ICE technologies decrease in value, exhaust gas treatment will still drive value add in
the field while specific hybrid components only make for a small part of electric drivetrain revenues
Value Add Combustion Engine Combustion Value Add Electric Engine Electric
Germany Germany
20 20
Billions
Billions
18 18
16 16
14 14
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Base Engine Fuel System Intake System Electric Motor & Generator Power Electronics, security Cooling
Exhaust System Cooling Transmission Transmission Inverter, Charging Energy Storage
Stricter global CO2 emission standards require new powertrain technologies. The Even assuming aggressive cost reduction potential, the fast rise of electric
combustion engine needs significant innovations, especially exhaust system, to reach drivetrain demand creates significant business opportunities, requiring fast decisions even
the new emission requirements. today – but a long-term strategy and large financial resources.
PwC Autofacts ® 8The foreseeable changes of the automotive value chain will come in several different ways: while
evolutionary change is fairly benign, transformational change requires strategic realignments.
Quantitative Qualitative
Process
Evolutionary developments require suppliers to further develop existing
The automotive industry has been handling business models in order to remain profitable.
technological progress continuously for over Evolutionary Change Fully integrated business models of product, technology and machinery
130 years – mostly as technology leader. allow for seamless adaption to evolutionary changes.
Upcoming changes may require the adaptation Technology
of non-automotive technologies and skills – Transformative influences require action as today's business models will be
through cooperation, co-opetition or the Transformational Change strongly modified (disruptive) or replaced (substitutive) in the future.
creation of new business cultures.
Substitutional Transformation can lead to obsolescence of entire production
areas and competencies of suppliers.
Disruptive Substitutional
PwC Autofacts ® 9DON’T PANIC: The anticipation of the automotive transformation already influences the interactions
between automotive stakeholders over the entire value chain and determines long-term strategies
Stakeholder Map Business strategy types
Big players such as OEMs and large suppliers are creating new
Portfolio Realignment
markets on top of managing value shifts in existing operations
Financial OEMs
institutions
Especially family-owned smaller companies can leverage new
Trans- Strategic Pivot
opportunities for pivotal shifts of business model
formation
(Expectation
of …) Specialized suppliers are striving to establish dominating positions
Last Man Standing
in critical market segments to elongate business
Market
development Suppliers
Basic technologies will continue to be in demand but fall under
Business as Usual
increasing per-unit price pressure, requiring permanent adaption
Quelle: PwC Autofacts 2018
PwC Autofacts ® 10Contact and Further Information Felix Kuhnert Christoph Stürmer Global Automotive Leader Autofacts Global Lead Analyst PwC Germany PwC Germany Tel. +49 711 25034-3309 Tel. +49 69 9585-6269 felix.kuhnert@pwc.com christoph.stuermer@pwc.com The information contained in this report represents the culmination of proprietary research conducted by Autofacts, an analytical group within the PwC Research & Analysis Organisation. All material contained in this report was developed independently of any PwC client relationship and does not represent the firm’s view as an auditor to any legal business entity. While every effort has been made to ensure the quality of information provided, no representation or warranty of any kind (whether expressed or implied) is given by PwC as to the accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose of this document. As such, this document does not constitute the giving of investment advice, nor a part of any advice on investment decisions. Accordingly, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort or otherwise, and to the extent permitted by applicable law, PwC accepts no liability of any kind and disclaims all responsibility for the consequences of any person acting or refraining from acting in reliance on this document. © 2018 PwC. All rights reserved. "PwC" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a Delaware limited liability partnership) or, as the context requires, other member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Ltd., each of which is a separate and independent legal entity. PwC Autofacts ® 11
You can also read
