Queensland Treasury Corporation Annual Investor Engagement Program - 11 to 21 October 2010 - The Honourable Andrew Fraser MP Treasurer Minister ...
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Queensland Treasury Corporation
Annual Investor Engagement Program
11 to 21 October 2010
The Honourable Andrew Fraser MP
Treasurer
Minister for Employment and Economic Development
Queensland Treasury Corporation
Annual Investor Engagement Program
Report by the Honourable Andrew Fraser MP, Treasurer,
Minister for Employment and Economic Development
Overview:
From 11 to 22 October 2010, I led a State Government delegation on the Queensland
Treasury Corporation (QTC) Annual Investor Engagement Program.
That delegation comprised of Stephen Rochester, Chairman of QTC, Alex Beavers Deputy
Under Treasurer, Richard Jackson, Head of Financial Markets at QTC, and Timothy Linley,
Advisor to the Treasurer.
The delegation travelled to meet with global bond market investors in Asia, Europe and the
United States. From to 1 to 7 November I led a delegation including Mr Jackson and Sir Leo
Heilscher, Foundation Chairman of QTC to the United Kingdom. My travel and
accommodation expenses for this leg of the program were met by me personally, with
taxpayers not contributing to my travel program. At the conclusion of the program in the
UK I stayed an additional evening to attend a personal engagement. Given the private
component of the program, I chose to meet the costs of all travel and accommodation
personally.
While I was absent the Premier acted as Treasurer.
Over the last 22 years the Treasurer of Queensland has visited global bond market investors
to inform them about the diversified structure of the Queensland economy, the strength of
Queensland’s political and financial institutions and the outlook for the Queensland and
Australian economy. Investors throughout the world consistently provide feedback that
these briefings are crucial to informing their investment decisions and view of Queensland,
and that they are appreciative of being able to directly question the Treasurer of the day on
the policy direction of the Government, and as the guarantor of QTC’s bond issuance.
Page 1
With the end of the Federal Government AAA+ guarantee on new bond issuance after 31 December 2010, the meetings were of particular importance in informing investors who are unfamiliar with Queensland about the fundamental strengths of the Queensland Government’s balance sheet and the economy more broadly. In last year’s Investor Engagement Program QTC sounded out establishing a State guaranteed line of issuance. This year investors were provided with the opportunity to learn about the particular maturity dates being targeted by QTC to provide more liquidity in the state guaranteed yield curve, as issuance is transitioned from the Commonwealth guaranteed line. While travelling QTC announced the issue of 1.6$b of 2015 and $1.55b of 2013 maturity bonds as part this process. QTC also provided assurance to investors that the Commonwealth guarantee will continue on issuance before 31 December 2010 until maturity, in accordance with the rules of the Australian Government Guarantee scheme. To cover as many markets as possible the delegation split into two groups for most of time. Presentations were provided to both investors and members of QTC’s Fixed Income Group which is a syndicate of global leading banks that assist to issue QTC paper. The meetings provided an opportunity to give an overview of Queensland, including our strong economic growth and contribution to the Australian economy through the last decade, the profile of Queensland’s infrastructure program, the structure of Queensland’s diversified service‐based economy, the skilled profile of Queensland’s population growth, the asset sales program and other components of the Government’s fiscal strategy to return the budget surplus and AAA credit rating, and broader observations on the outlook for the Queensland and Australian economies. Page 2
The meetings also saw detailed briefings on the trend for the split of offshore versus onshore bonds, bond line maturities, the 2010‐11 borrowing program, the reduction in future forecast borrowings (in line with returns from the asset sales program), the system of issuing State guaranteed paper on odd dates to distinguish from Commonwealth guaranteed paper on even dates, and the profile for commercial paper. There was consistent positive feedback from investors that the State Guaranteed bond line provided an attractive yield, while also being a more secure investment than other AA+ rated issuance. Some investors expressed a strong interest in investing in State guaranteed bonds and had further discussions with their Fixed Income Group client managers directly after receiving briefings. Page 3
In New York the delegation met with Paul Coughlin, Global Head and Executive Managing Director of Corporate and Government Ratings at Standard and Poors (S&P). The meetings was an opportunity to provide an update on the Queensland economy, the Government’s fiscal strategy and plan to maintain our position within the threshold for a AAA rating and the progress of the asset sales program. Mr Coughlin acknowledged the Queensland Government’s strong position of having fully funded superannuation liabilities and that the rating was no reflection on the merits of the Government’s policy to continue to support employment and growth through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by investing in infrastructure. It was acknowledged that Australia has strong institutions and processes for financial management and accountability compared with other sovereigns. It was also an opportunity to discuss the methodology and changes to the approach of S&P. MrCoughlin provided an overview of structural changes in S&P following the GFC, the stress test requirements for AAA sovereigns, and the lessons for rating agencies from the US housing bubble. As we left Australia to embark on the Investor Engagement Program the attention of the media and market analysts was on the continuingly strong rhetoric from global political leaders around currency manipulation, epitomised by Brazil’s Finance Minister Guido Mantega on September 27 as he outlined what he saw as an “international currency war”. The debate was fuelled by speculation of Quantitative Easing II by the US Federal Reserve on 3 November 2010 and the continued weakening of the $USD. Fundamental questions were being raised in the debate about the future structure of the global economy, as the developed world attempted to stimulate demand, partly through weakening currencies while simultaneously implementing austerity measures. Arguments were being made in developing economies that they should not just accept a flood of capital from the developed world (with the weakening of the $USD), and risk either losing export competitiveness or Page 4
their economies overheating. Meanwhile in the US claims continued to be made that the Chinese yuan is overvalued. The world was looking to the G20 summit in South Korea for an agreement on finding a balance between maintaining demand in the developed world, while having sustainable capital inflows into the developing world. It was against this backdrop that investors were particularly interested to know where Australia and Queensland economies are situated. Investors asked about the high $AUD and the impacts on tourism and exporters and whether Australia intended to take any action to stop the appreciation of the currency. The state of the housing market and concerns of over‐valuation were evident along with questions on the implementation of new mining tax arrangements. Program in detail Asia (Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo) The delegation travelled ahead on Monday 11 October and held meetings in Hong Kong with CITI Bank, the Industrial Commercial Bank of China, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Bank of China and Royal Bank of Canada, as well as presenting at a lunch for the Fixed Interest Dealer Group. After staying to attend Cabinet I flew out late Monday night to join the team on the morning of Tuesday 12 October. As we arrived in Singapore markets were focused on whether China would lift interest rates. The Thai Government had just announced a new 15% withholding tax for foreign investors on its bonds which heightened speculation in markets of a looming ‘currency war’, and attention had turned to whether Singapore’s central bank would lift interest rates in response to the appreciating Singapore dollar. We started the morning by meeting with the FIDG ANZ representatives before meeting with Nah Chiew Ming at UOB Asset Management. Nah Ching Miew was interested in Queensland becoming increasingly leveraged to Asia, the broad‐based nature of Queensland’s economy and exports and the impact of the high $AUD. We discussed how a sustained high $AUD would impact on our tourism and export industries. We then met with Tan Wee Kiat and Lauren Poon at the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GSIC), along with Han Jer Ding from ANZ. They asked about the historical and future profile of Queensland’s infrastructure program and how competition from Indonesia would affect Queensland’s coal exports. We discussed the nature of our coal industry, especially the fact that the majority of coal exports from Queensland are metallurgical coal. GSIC shared the view that China will continue to have strong demand for Page 5
metallurgical coal due to both urbanisation and the expansion of infrastructure, such as ship yards. At lunch I gave the Keynote Address to assembled FIDG members on Queensland and the Government’s fiscal strategy, along with presentations from the Treasury and QTC. In the afternoon we met with Cheryl Lum and Akihisa Abeta at Nomura Asset Management. Of interest was the impact of the high $AUD on foreign investment, with investors trying to determine the right level to buy. There was confidence expressed in the credit quality of QTC’s paper and questions were raised about household debt levels in Australia. The final meeting of the day was with Akio Shimiza, Yusuka Tanaka and Alex Moh Swee Liang at Mitsubishi UFJ. There were questions asked about whether QTC intended to change the offshore onshore split and it was mentioned that central banks in Asia are slowly opening to semi‐government issuance. The meeting ended positively with a further meeting arranged with the local FIDG representative. The Deputy Under Treasurer and the General Manager of Financial Markets for QTC left in the evening for Tokyo and met on Wednesday with investors from Merrill Lynch, Chuo Mitsui Asset Management, DIAM and Daiwa Asset Management. On Thursday meetings took place in Tokyo with Prudential and Daiwa SB Investment. Europe (Frankfurt, Zurich, Paris) The Chairman and I arrived in Frankfurt on Wednesday morning after flying overnight. The previous day the European Central Bank’s Axel Weber had called on the European Central Bank to phase out its bond purchasing program immediately, and argued that the risk of “exiting too late” was greater than the danger of “exiting too early”. Weber went on to argue that providing Greece with the 110 billion‐euro bail‐out violated the EU’s no‐bailout rule and called for a clause forbidding countries to pay for the debts of others to “be reinvigorated”. These comments reignited debate in European markets around resolving the sovereign debt crisis. In Frankfurt we met with Falk Solbrig and Dr Bettina Műller from DWS Investment who were interested in the measures the Queensland Government is taking to restore Queensland’s AAA+ credit rating. Following this we met Daniel Kitter from Deka Investment. Daniel Kitter advised that there is a strong interest in Australian bonds, in part because of the high $AUD and was interested to explore the reasons for taking up the Commonwealth guarantee in view of their consideration of the strong credit quality of QTC bonds. In the evening we had dinner with Mitesh Maru, Director of Interest Rate Sales from UBS. Page 6
On Thursday morning we flew to Zurich. The Swiss economy was continuing to outperform many other European economies with GDP growth of 3% forecast for 2010‐11 and unemployment of 4%. In the morning met with Sandro Streit, Brigitte Bieg, Dr Patrick Muhl, Roman Baumann and Dr Jonas Stulz of the Swiss National Bank. They were surprised by the liquidity in Australian bonds and were interested in the State guarantee arrangements. Following this meeting we attended a lunch hosted by Claudio Schneider and Fabian Welandagoda from UBS, with Mario Fraefel, Peter Schűtz and Christof Stegmann from Julias Bär Funds. While many investors are familiar with Australia and QTC, this meeting was opportunity to introduce new investors to QTC. The discussion focussed on Queensland’s infrastructure program, the Commonwealth Parliament, progress in implementing the MRRT, the potential for a housing bubble in Australia and whether the RBA would take any measures to limit the $AUD rise. We discussed comments earlier in the month by Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank Ric Battellino about the recent moderation of house prices against the growth in income as a “satisfactory state of affairs”. On the appreciation of the $AUD we discussed the RBA’s central focus being on inflation and any action would depend on the extent to which terms of trade impact on inflation. In the afternoon we met with Slawomir Bembenik of Swiss Re. Mr Bembenik was interested in the nature of trade relationships between Queensland and both Japan and China and in the pathway through the asset sales program to the restoration of the AAA+ rating. Following this we provided a briefing to Juan Andres Duran, Patrik Schär, Felix Schmidt and Karin Oury of Frankfurter Bankgesellschaft. In the evening we presented at a dinner hosted with Credit Suisse Global Asset Management. Following discussion around the Queensland and Australian economies there was a broader discussion around the future of the European Monetary Union. Concerns were raised about the potential in the medium to long‐term of political tension in Germany as a result of the bail‐out packages for Greece and the previous misreporting of financial information by the Greek Government, especially with Ireland, Portugal and Spain also in difficulty. There were questions raised about the sustainability of France’s budget and the strikes and political turmoil that had emerged from lifting the retirement age from 60‐62. The ‘currency wars’ were a topic of conversation and whether the US Government was reasonable to ask China to appreciate the yuan, along with questions of whether Australia would seek to prevent appreciation of the $AUD. On Friday morning we flew to Paris for meetings, after being delayed due to the industrial action in France. As we arrived we drove through a student protest against the increasing retirement age. Page 7
Our first meeting was with Catherine Clausse at Amundi Asset Management. Ms Clausse asked about the rating and the plan to restore a AAA credit, and how closely Queensland is leveraged to Asia. We then met with Sebastian Levy, Olivier Caillaud and Dirk Saueracker of Banque de France. Banque de France indicated that they see strong fundamentals in Australia and particularly Queensland. Mr Levy has previously worked for the RBA. There was support expressed for the reasons Queensland continued its infrastructure program of both increasing the supply chain and to tackle population growth. The United States (San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, New York) On Thursday the other team met with Franklin Templeton and Mellon Capital after arriving in the afternoon in San Francisco. On Friday they flew to Los Angeles to meet with Payden Rygel, Bradford Marzac and Nuveen Investment. The $AUD reached parity with the $USD on Friday night leading to speculation in markets as to whether this would force the RBA to lift interest rates. On the same day US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke provided markets with a further indication that QEII was going ahead by stating that “there would appear – all else being equal – to be a case for further action” following the release of US core inflation at 0.8% year on year. The delegation met up again in Boston on Sunday morning and Richard Jackson, Timothy Linley and I attended a briefing by Carl Riccadonna, Senior US Economist in Global Markets Research at Deutsche Bank. Mr Riccadonna provided a bearish outlook questioning whether the economic recovery in the US is really jobless with leading indicators including temporary hours, employee tax withholding receipts, the peaking of unemployment, retail sales, equipment and software and spending and corporate profits all indicating a recovery in employment. The redundancy savings measures by State Legislatures in the US were cited as a key reason why employment growth had not been at the same strength as previous recoveries. The contrast the Queensland Government policies was evident. Mr Riccadonna stated that the upturn in employee taxation receipts would turn public sector job losses around over the medium‐term. The presentation also pointed to other positive indicators including the ISM, the recovery outpacing credit availability and increasing business spending. It was also noted that markets normally grow in the quarter following a mid‐term election by 8‐9%. The view was put that the US economy was more at risk of inflation than deflation. On Monday Dennis Lockhart a US Federal Reserve voting member gave a speech in which he presented a contrary view stating that he saw “greater weight to the risk of further Page 8
disinflation leading to deflation” with “serious indications for employment” and that he was “leaning in favour of additional monetary stimulus”, and described quantitative easing as “prudent to put in place at this time”. That morning we met with Toby Johnston and Benjamin Swanson at Wellington Management, Darcie Sunnerberg at Loomis Sayles and Company, and Johnny Sze at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston. The other team flew ahead to New York, and went to meetings in Delaware in the morning, before meeting Nikko Asset Management and Lazard Asset Management in the afternoon. At the meeting with Loomis Sayles there was interest expressed in the Federal Treasurer’s response that Australia would not take action on the appreciation of the $AUD, and the emergence of the LNG industry in Queensland. We were also advised that some in the markets were expecting the $AUD to remain high in the short‐term and that it could as high as 5c above parity with the $USD. At the meeting with MFC Global Investment Management I provided details around the structure of the asset sales and the program to return to a AAA rating. There were comments made by MFC that in their view the AA+ rating was not a significant issue with investors had a positive view of Australia. In the afternoon we travelled on to New York for the FIDG dinner where I provided the keynote address. The appreciating $AUD continued to dominate discussions. The issue of foreign investment in precious metals was also raised as it had been topical in media. On Tuesday morning meetings were held with Standard and Poors, and Stephanie Linton and William Linden of OppenheimerFunds. Following an overview of the Queensland economy there was more interest expressed in Queensland issuance than Australia’s. At lunch on Tuesday we met with Hiro Nozaki, Joseph Berbari and [checking name with QTC] at Blackrock. Of interest to Blackrock was how the Queensland Government is dealing with the skills shortage and capacity constraints and I highlighted Queensland’s younger more skilled migrant intake in these discussions. There was discussion of continued uncertainty in the US and a jobless recovery. Page 9
United Kingdom On the second leg of the program, we arrived at dawn on Tuesday 2 November and proceeded via our hotel to a program of meetings. The morning commenced with discussions at FFTW and GAM (UK), followed by a presentation to an Investor Lunch. In the afternoon I met with Nomura Asset Management and in the evening I provided the keynote address to the Fixed Interest Dealer Group. On Wednesday morning the Foundation Chairman and the General Manager continued the investor briefings as I had an appointment with the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hon Alan Johnson MP. We discussed the nature of the fiscal decisions taken by the British Government and their impacts on the economic dynamics in the country. I then had to travel to the London Stock Exchange to film an interview for Sky Business regarding the QR National public offering. In the afternoon I met the delegation at the airport to travel to Edinburgh. After arriving in Edinburgh we had dinner with James Malone from RBS. The next morning we conducted meetings with AEGON and Standard Life before heading via car towards Glasgow at lunchtime. The delegation continued on from here, before beginning the return trip to Australia the following day. Concluding Remarks Queensland faces similar challenges to developed economies around the world of needing to support employment and growth while maintaining a fiscally responsible budget position, as demand continues to remain weak following the GFC. We face similar challenges to Singapore and Switzerland of currently having an appreciated currency. Judgement However, as mentioned by investors in every continent we visited, Queensland and Australia is in an enviable position. Australia’s strong financial and political institutions and Queensland’s diversified economic base (including manufacturing, agriculture, metallurgical and thermal coal, LNG, tourism and education), and the diversity of our export destinations throughout Asia, North and South America, and Europe make Queensland a highly attractive investment destination. Unlike many States in the US our decision to maintain employment and continue to support investment in infrastructure which has kept our unemployment rate at half that of the United States and the United Kingdom and maintained jobs growth through our recovery. As Queensland’s predominantly young and skilled population intake continues we will need to continue to build infrastructure to cater growth. Page 10
QTC is well placed to perform this funding task, as it maintains its global profile as a well respected issuer in the global investment community and continues to successfully establish a liquid State Government guaranteed line. The level of interest from fund managers and central banks around the world in QTC’s State Guaranteed bonds is a tick of confidence from global investors in the Government’s fiscal strategy to return our AAA+ credit rating, and in the future of Queensland’s growing, multifaceted and diversified economy. Page 11
QUEENSLAND TREASURY CORPORATION ANNUAL INVESTOR ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM ITINERARY Singapore, Frankfurt, Zurich, Paris, Boston, New York 11 – 21 October 2010 The Hon. Andrew Fraser MP, Treasurer and Minister for Employment and Economic Development Mr Timothy Linley, Policy Advisor
MONDAY, 11 OCTOBER
Hong Kong is 2 hours behind Brisbane time
23.45 Depart from Brisbane International Airport – SQ246
05.50 Arrive Singapore/Changi Airport
ACCOMMODATION – Mandarin Oriental, Singapore
5 Raffles Avenue, Singapore, 039797
TUESDAY, 12 OCTOBER
Singapore is 2 hours behind Brisbane time
MEETINGS HOSTED BY ANZ
HOSTS: JER DING HAN, ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, INSTITUTIONAL SALES, GLOBAL MARKETS
KEIRAN MCPHEE, DIRECTOR, INSTITUTIONAL SALES, SOUTH ASIA
09.45 ANZ BANK
One Raffles Place, #33-00 One Raffles Place
Attendees:
Keiran McPhee, Institutional Sales, South Asia
Jer Ding Han, Associate Director, Institutional Sales, Global Markets
Carmen Ho, Associate Director, Institutional Sales, Global Markets
10.00 UOB ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD
HOST: CARMEN HO, ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, INSTITUTIONAL SALES, GLOBAL MARKETS
80 Raffles Place, #03-00 UOB Plaza 2
Attendee:
Nah Chiew Ming, Assistant Director, Fixed Income
11.00 GOVERNMENT OF SINGAPORE INVESTMENT CORPORATION
168 Robinson Road #37-01, Capital Tower
Attendees:
Lauren Poon, Portfolio Manager, Treasury Currency Management, GIC Asset Management
Pte Ltd
Tan Wee Kiat, Senior Vice President, Treasury & Currency Management Group, GIC Asset
Management Pte Ltd
Han Jer Ding, Associate Director, Institutional Sales, Global Markets, ANZ Bank
12.15 FIDG LUNCH
China Club, Singapore
Attendees: See Attachment A
…/2TUESDAY, 12 OCTOBER (Cont’d)
Singapore is 2 hours behind Brisbane time
15.00 NOMURA ASSET MANAGEMENT
ANZ HOST: KEIRAN MCPHEE, INSTITUTIONAL SALES, SOUTH ASIA
6 Battery Rd #34-02
Attendees:
Cheryl Lum, Portfolio Manager
Akihisa Abeta, Assistant Portfolio Manager
17.00 MITSUBISHI UFJ
ANZ HOST: KEIRAN MCPHEE, INSTITUTIONAL SALES, SOUTH ASIA
50 Raffles Place, #42-01, Singapore Land Tower
Attendees:
Akio Shimiza, Senior Dealer
Yusuke Tanaka, Senior Dealer/Manager Treasury
Alex Moh Swee Liang, Dealer/Manager, Treasury
23.20 Depart Singapore - QF5
WEDNESDAY, 13 OCTOBER
Frankfurt is 8 hours behind Brisbane time
06.00 Arrive Frankfurt
MEETINGS IN FRANKFURT (HOSTED BY UBS)
HOST: MITESH MARU, DIRECTOR OF INTEREST RATE SALES
14.30 DWS INVESTMENT GmbH
Mainzer Landstrasse 178-190, 60327 Frankfurt
Attendees:
Falk Solbrig, Assistant Vice President, Portfolio Manager FI Total Return, Fixed Income
Fund Management
Dr Bettina Műller, International Fixed Income Fund Management
16.00 DEKA INVESTMENT GmbH
Mainzer Landstrasse 16, 60325 Frankfurt
Attendee:
Daniel Kitter, Portfolio Management, Global Fixed Income/Emerging Markets
…/3WEDNESDAY, 13 OCTOBER (Cont’d)
Frankfurt is 8 hours behind Brisbane time
18.00 Dinner with Mitesh Maru, Director, Interest Rate Sales, UBS Investment
ACCOMMODATION – Steigenburger Hof
Am Kaiserplatz, 60311 Frankfurt/Main
THURSDAY, 14 OCTOBER
Zurich is 8 hours behind Brisbane time
07.35 Depart Frankfurt - LH3720
08.30 Arrive Zurich
ZURICH MEETINGS (HOSTED BY UBS)
10.00 SCHWEIZERISCHE NATIONALBANK (SWISS NATIONAL BANK)
Boersenstrass 15, 8022 Zurich
Attendees:
Sandro Streit, Director, Head of Asset Management
Brigitte Bieg, Senior Portfolio Manager, Asset Management
Dr Patrick Muhl, Asset Management Portfolio Manager
Roman Baumann, Advisor, Deputy Head of Asset Management
Dr Jonas Stulz, Senior Portfolio Manager, Asset Management
12.00 - LUNCH MEETING WITH SWISS AND GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT
14.30 HOSTS: CLAUDIO SCHNEIDER AND FABIAN WELANDAGODA FROM UBS
Restaurant Sein, 1st Floor, Schuetzengasse 5, 8001 Zurich
Attendees:
Mario Fraefel, Executive Director, Head of Fixed Income Credit, Swiss & Global
Management Ltd
Peter Schűtz, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager, Swiss & Global Management Ltd
Christof Stegmann, Executive Director, Portfolio Manager, Swiss & Global Management Ltd
15.00 - SWISS REINSURANCE COMPANY
16.00 Genferstrasse 27, 8022 Zurich
Attendee:
Slawomir Bembenik, Vice President, Asset Management
…/4THURSDAY, 14 OCTOBER (Cont’d)
Zurich is 8 hours behind Brisbane time
16.30 - FRANKFURTER BANKGESELLSCHAFT (SCHWEIZ) AG
17.30 Muenstergasse 2, 8022 Zurich
Attendees:
Juan Andres Duran, Senior Portfolio Manager
Patrik Schär, Business Administration
Felix Schmidt, Prokurist, Private Banking
Karin Oury, Assistant, Private Banking
18.00 DINNER WITH UBS GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT
Romantikhotel Florhof (restaurant name) Florhoffgasse 4, 8001 Zurich
Attendees:
Eric Chevallier, Director, Fixed Income
Cornel Egger, Senior Analyst
Robert Hellstrand, Director, Portfolio Manager, GIS
Heinz Kaiser, Director, Fixed Income
Willy Schmassmann, Vice President
Sebastian Steib, Executive Director, Fixed Income
ACCOMMODATION – Marriott, Zurich
Neumuehlequai 42, Zurich, 8001
FRIDAY, 15 OCTOBER
Paris is 8 hours behind Brisbane time
07.35 Depart Zurich - LX632
09.00 Arrive Paris (CDG)
DB HOST – PHILIPPA SHEPHERD, GLOBAL MARKETS ICG (based in London office)
10.30 AMUNDI ASSET MANAGEMENT
90 BD Pasteur, 75015
Attendee:
Catherine Clausse (Portfolio Manager)
12.30 LUNCH MEETING WITH BANQUE DE FRANCE
La Fonatine Gaillon, Paris
Attendees:
Sebastian Levy, Deputy Head of Reserve Management
Olivier Caillaud, AUD PM
Dirk Saueracker, new AUD PM (recently joined from Bundesbank)
…/5Philippa Shepherd, Global Markets ICG (based in London office)
FRIDAY, 15 OCTOBER (Cont’d)
Paris is 8 hours behind Brisbane time
ACCOMMODATION – Sofitel Paris
14 Rue Beaujon, Paris, 75008
SATURDAY, 16 OCTOBER
Boston is 14 hours behind Brisbane time
17.55 Depart Paris - BA323
18.05 Arrive London Heathrow
19.30 Depart London Heathrow - BA239
21.45 Arrive Boston
ACCOMMODATION – Boston Harbor Hotel
70 Rowes Wharf On Atlantic Avenue, Boston, Ma 02110
SUNDAY, 17 OCTOBER
Boston is 14 hours behind Brisbane time
17.30 ECONOMIST DINNER WITH DEUTSCHE BANK
Mooo Restaurant, 15 Beacon Street
Attendees:
Carl Riccadonna, Director, Senior US Economist, Global Markets Research,
Phil Douglas, Director, ICG Sales, Global Markets
ACCOMMODATION – Boston Harbor Hotel
70 Rowes Wharf On Atlantic Avenue, Boston, Ma 02110
MONDAY, 18 OCTOBER
Boston is 14 hours behind Brisbane time
10.00 WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLP
75 State Street, BOSTON MA 02109
Attendees:
Benjamin Swanson, Assistant Vice President
Toby Johnston, Global Bond Strategist
11.00 LOOMIS SAYLES & COMPANY INC
Investment Counsel, 1 Financial Center, BOSTON MA 02111
Attendee:
…/6Darcie Sunnerberg, Vice President
MONDAY, 18 OCTOBER (Cont’d)
Boston is 14 hours behind Brisbane time
12.00 MFC GLOBAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
101 Huntington Ave., H-6, Boston, Massachusetts 02199
Attendee:
Johnny Sze, Investment Analyst
14.05 Depart Boston - AA4389
15.20 Arrive New York
18.30 FIDG DINNER
New York Palace
Attendees: See Attachment B
ACCOMMODATION – New York Palace
455 Madison Ave At 50th Street, New York, NY 10022
TUESDAY, 19 OCTOBER
New York is 14 hours behind Brisbane time
08.30 STANDARD AND POORS
New York Palace (Level 39)
Attendee:
Paul Coughlin, Global Head and Executive Managing Director of Corporate and Government
Ratings
10.30 OPPENHEIMER FUNDS
225 Liberty St, Two World Financial Center
Attendees:
William Linden, Sr International Trader
Stephanie Linton, Jr International Trader
12.00 LUNCH MEETING WITH BLACKROCK (HOSTED BY WESTPAC)
Park Avenue Plaza, 55 East 52nd Street, New York NY 10022
Attendees:
Hiro Nozaki, Director
Joseph Berbari, Vice President
Yoni Saposh, Director
…/7TUESDAY, 19 OCTOBER (Cont’d)
New York is 14 hours behind Brisbane time
17.00 Depart JFK - QF3112/AA181
20.07 Arrive Los Angeles
22.30 Depart Los Angeles - QF12
WEDNESDAY, 20 OCTOBER
In transit
THURSDAY, 21 OCTOBER
07.30 Arrive Sydney International Airport
10.05 Depart Sydney Domestic Airport - QF516
10.35 Arrive Brisbane Domestic Airport
…/8Attachment A
FIDG LUNCH – SINGAPORE
Venue: China Club, Singapore
Organisation Name Title
Queensland Government Hon. Andrew Fraser Treasurer and Minister for
MP Employment and Economic
Development
Office of the Treasurer Tim Linley Policy Advisor to the Treasurer
Queensland Treasury Alex Beavers Deputy Under Treasurer
Queensland Treasury Corporation Shauna Tomkins QTC Board Member
Board
Queensland Treasury Corporation Richard Jackson General Manager, Funding and
Markets
ANZ Keiran McPhee Director, Institutional Sales, South
Asia
BAML Keng Nam Ng Director, Rates Sales
BAML Benedict See-Toh Rates Sales
Barclays Brent Morgans Head of Distribution, South Asia
Citi Sherri Tan G10 Rates Sales
Commonwealth Bank of Australia Giles Chapman Senior Manager, Securities
Origination
Commonwealth Bank of Australia Jannet Soh Vice President
Daiwa Gina Lee Fixed Income Sales
Daiwa Eric Luchangco Asian Syndicate
Deutsche Bank Aileen Ngui Fixed Income Sales
JP Morgan Kien Kah Chen Executive Director
Nomura Ti-Howe Guai Managing Director, Rates Sales
RBC Capital Markets Ronnie Lim Head of Capital Markets
Royal Bank of Scotland Rogerio Bernardo Director, APAC Bond Syndicate
TD Securities Matt Barron Head of Fixed Income Sales
TD Securities Alan Doolan Rates Sales
UBS Investment Bank Mandy Wan Director, Fixed Income Sales
UBS Investment Bank Wei-Shee Chia Executive Director, Fixed Income
SalesAttachment B
FIDG DINNER – NEW YORK
New York Palace, New York
Queensland Government Hon. Andrew Fraser Treasurer and Minister for
MP Employment and Economic
Development
Office of the Treasurer Tim Linley Policy Advisor to the Treasurer,
Office of the Treasurer
Queensland Treasury Alex Beavers Deputy Under Treasurer,
Queensland Treasury
Queensland Treasury Corporation Stephen Rochester Chairman
Queensland Treasury Corporation Neil Castles Acting Chief Executive
Queensland Treasury Corporation Richard Jackson General Manager, Funding and
Markets
Queensland Trade Office Chris Rodwell Commissioner
ANZ Ann Varalli Senior Vice President
ANZ Jonathan Beer Senior Vice President
ANZ Edwin Suthpin Senior Vice President
BAML Rob Grillo Managing Director, Head of Sales
BAML Michael O'Leary Managing Director, Rates Sales
Citi Aoiffe McGarry Syndicate Group
Credit Suisse First Boston Emily Lao Chua Vice President, Fixed Income
Daiwa Mansur Z. Rasul Fixed Income Syndicate
Deutsche Bank Phil Douglas Director, ICG Sales, Global Markets
Deutsche Bank Gary Beyer Managing Director, Head of
Americas Relationship
Development
Deutsche Bank (IPA rep) Carol Ng Vice President
National Australia Bank Matt Dennis Director
National Australia Bank Mike Keilman Head of Rates & Credit Sales
Nomura George Goncalves MD, Head of Rates Strategy
Nomura Joseph Nehorai Executive Director, Rates
Nomura Joe Decicco Managing Director, Rates
RBC Capital Markets Neil Rouatt Vice President, Fixed Income Sales
RBC Capital Markets Jigme Shingsar Managing Director, Head of USD
Global Origination
Royal Bank of Scotland Darin Spilman Managing Director, Non-Dollar
Sales
Sullivan and Cromwell John Estes Partner
Sullivan and Cromwell Duncan McCurrach Partner, US Capital Markets
TD Securities Ryan McGorman Vice President, Fixed Income Sales
TD Securities Mark Aldridge Managing Director, Debt Capital
Markets
UBS Investment Bank Rob Fisher Fixed Interest Institutional Sales
Westpac Banking Corporation Dennis Gorman Director, Head of Northern
Hemisphere Rate SalesQUEENSLAND TREASURY CORPORATION ANNUAL INVESTOR ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM ITINERARY London and Edinburgh 1–4 November 2010 The Hon. Andrew Fraser MP, Treasurer and Minister for Employment and Economic Development
MONDAY 1 NOVEMBER
London is 9 hours behind Brisbane time
13.40 Depart from Brisbane International Airport – QF51
TUESDAY, 2 NOVEMBER
London is 9 hours behind Brisbane time
05.25 Arrive London Heathrow
MEETINGS HOSTED BY NAB
HOST: MARK ELLIS, DIRECTOR, INSTITUTIONAL RATE SALES
08.30 NAB
80 Wood Street, London
Attendee:
Mark Ellis, Director, Institutional Rate Sales
09.00 FFTW
HOST: MARK ELLIS, DIRECTOR, INSTITUTIONAL RATE SALES
Attendee:
Nic Hoogewijs, Portfolio Manager
10.30 GAM (UK) LTD (FORMERLY AUGUST IM)
HOST: MARK ELLIS, DIRECTOR, INSTITUTIONAL RATE SALES
Attendee:
Philip Mann, Portfolio Manager
12.15 INVESTOR LUNCH, HOSTED BY NAB
NAB offices: 80 Wood Street, London
Attendees:
Peter Johnson, Chubb Insurance
Niall Moten, Assistant Investment Manager, Lloyds of London
Kiran Sandhu, BUPA
Claudi Gollmeier, Investment Officer, Colchester
15.00 NOMURA ASSET MANAGEMENT
Attendee:
Nan Wu, Portfolio Manager
…/218.30 FIDG DINNER IN LONDON
ONE ALDWYCH
Attendees: See Attachment C
ACCOMMODATION – One Aldwych, 1 Aldwych, London
WEDNESDAY, 3 NOVEMBER
London and Edinburgh are 9 hours behind Brisbane time
09.30 MEETING WITH RIGHT HONOURABLE ALAN JOHNSON MP, SHADOW CHANCELLOR OF THE
EXCHEQUER
1 Parliament Street, London
10.45 SKY NEWS INTERVIEW
London Stock Exchange
10 Paternoster Square, London
14.50 Depart London – BA8716
16.10 Arrive Edinburgh Airport
19.00 DINNER WITH RBS
George Hotel, 19-21 George St, Edinburgh
Attendee:
James Malone , Manager, Institutional Sales
ACCOMMODATION – The George Hotel
19-21 George St, Edinburgh, Scotland
THURSDAY, 4 NOVEMBER
Edinburgh is 9 hours behind Brisbane time
09.00 AEGON
3 Lochside Avenue, Edinburgh Park, Edinburgh
Attendee:
Stephen Jones, Portfolio Manager
11.00 Standard Life
1 George Street, Edinburgh
Attendees:
Jack Kelly, PM Overseas Fixed Interest Fund
Katy Forbes, Assistant Investment Director, Inflation
Jonathan Gibbs, Head of Real Returns)
…/3Attachment C
FIXED INTEREST DISTRIBUTION GROUP DINNER, LONDON
One Aldwych, 1 Aldwych, London
Treasurer and Minister for Employment and
Queensland Government Hon. Andrew Fraser MP
Economic Development
Queensland Treasury Corporation Sir Leo Hielscher AC Foundation Chairman
Queensland Treasury Corporation John Dawson AM Board Member
Queensland Treasury Corporation Richard Jackson General Manager, Financial Markets
Queensland Trade Office Andrew Craig Agent-General for Queensland
Queensland Trade Office Albert Kelly Business Development Director
Guests:
ANZ David Ryan
ANZ Adam Mayne
Barclays Euan Harkness
Barclays Simon Oddie
BAML James Lorimer
BAML Geri McMahon
Citi Shane Warcop
Citi Francisco Allegue
Citi Matthew Glendinning
Commonwealth Bank Kevin Atwill
Commonwealth Bank Shane Dallman
Deutsche Bank Philippa Shepherd
Deutsche Bank Ryan Ellis
Deutsche Bank (IPA rep) Stuart Harding
National Australia Bank Graham Rutter
National Australia Bank Mark Ellis
RBC Capital Markets Gavin Kidd
RBC Capital Markets Sean Graham
Royal Bank of Scotland Jim Malone
TD Securities Simon Hughes
TD Securities Matthew Baird
UBS Investment Bank Lee Johns
UBS Investment Bank Adrian Longland
UBS Investment Bank George Szlachetko
Westpac Banking Corporation Ryan Gavin
Westpac Banking Corporation Patrick Molloy
Westpac Banking Corporation Altaz Dagha
Westpac Banking Corporation Paul Gover
…/4TOKYO
HONG KONG
BANGKOK
SINGAPORE
Darwin
Cairns
Brisbane
Perth
Sydney
Canberra
Adelaide
Melbourne
AUSTRALIA HobartAustralia−overview
Australia is a stable, democratic society with a skilled workforce and a diversified, competitive economy. With a
population of more than 20 million, Australia is the only nation to govern an entire continent and is the sixth
largest country in the world by land area. Australia’s multi-cultural society includes its Indigenous peoples and
migrants from some 200 countries worldwide. Its workforce is relatively large and highly trained, with many
senior managers and technical staff possessing international experience. Almost half of Australia’s workforce has
university, trade or diploma qualifications.
Government
Australia has six states (Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and Western
Australia) and two territories (the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory). The capital of
Australia is Canberra, which is located in the Australian Capital Territory.
Australia has three levels of government: federal, state and local. The federal and state systems of government
derive from the British Westminster system, although many features of Australia’s Constitution are based on
the United States’ Constitution.
Under Australia’s Constitution, the legislative power of the Commonwealth of Australia is vested in the
Parliament of the Commonwealth, which consists of the Queen, the Senate, and the House of Representatives.
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 7AUSTRALIA — QUICK FACTS
LAND AREA 7.69 million km2
POPULATION (MARCH 2010) 22.3 million
LANGUAGE English
CURRENCY Australian dollar (AUD)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (YEAR END JUNE 2010) AUD1,224 billion (USD1,108 billion)
FLIGHT TIME: SYDNEY TO PERTH 5 hours
FLIGHT TIME: ADELAIDE TO DARWIN 3 hours 40 minutes
FLIGHT TIME: BRISBANE TO HONG KONG 8 hours 45 minutes
FLIGHT TIME: BRISBANE TO LONDON Approx 22 hours
FLIGHT TIME: BRISBANE TO NEW YORK (VIA LA) Approx 22 hours
WORKFORCE* (AUGUST 2010) 11.3 million
HEADLINE INFLATION RATE (YEAR END JUNE 2010) 3.2%
OVERSEAS VISITORS (YEAR END JULY 2010) 5.7 million
* Total number of people employed.
Sources: Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australian Bureau of Statistics, and Bloomberg.
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 8Australia’s economic standing
Figure 1: Australia compared to the United States: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The US and Australian 7.0
economies have 6.0
expanded at broadly
5.0
similar rates over
the past decade. 4.0
More recently, the 3.0
Annual % growth
Australian economy 2.0
has outperformed
most other advanced 1.0
economies, including 0.0
the US.
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Australian Real GDP United States Real GDP
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 9Figure 2: Australia compared to the United States: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
6.0
Australia’s annual core 5.0
inflation rate was
2.7% in June 2010, and
4.0
Annual % growth
is expected to remain
within the RBA’s 2-3%
target band 3.0
in 2010.
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Australian core CPI (excl. GST)*# United States core CPI
* The Australian Government introduced a goods and services tax (GST) in July 2000. Its effect on core CPI has been excluded from the series above.
# Australian core CPI is the average of the RBA’s two statistical measures of underlying inflation.
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Bloomberg.
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 1 0Figure 3: Australia compared to the United States: Population growth
2.5
Australia’s population
continues to grow at 2.0
a strong rate, driven
primarily by positive
Annual % growth
net overseas migration. 1.5
The level of Australia’s
population has
accelerated in recent 1.0
times and is now
well-above long-run
average rates. 0.5
0.0
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Australia United States
Sources: Bloomberg, US Census Bureau and Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 1 1Figure 4: Australia compared to the United States and Japan: Interest rates (to September 2010)
8.0
Australian interest 7.0
rates remain higher
than those in the US 6.0
and Japan as a
result of Australia’s 5.0
Per cent
relative economic
4.0
out-performance.
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Sept-04
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-10
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Sep-08
Aust 10 year Japan 10 year US 10 year
Source: Bloomberg. Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 1 2Figure 5: AUD compared to the USD and JPY: Exchange rate (to September 2010)
1.20 200
In February 2009, the 180
Australian dollar fell to 1.00
160
its lowest level against
the USD and JPY, in 140
0.80
six and eight years
120
respectively following
AUD/USD
AUD/JPY
heightened risk 0.60 100
aversion and concerns
80
over global economic
0.40
growth. Improved 60
economic conditions
have seen the AUD 40
0.20
recover from 20
these lows.
0.00 0
Sep-86
Sep-87
Sep-88
Sep-89
Sep-90
Sep-91
Sep-92
Sep-93
Sep-94
Sep-95
Sep-96
Sep-97
Sep-98
Sep-99
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
AUD/JPY AUD/USD
Source: Bloomberg.
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 1 3G
R
E
A
T
B
Cairns
A
R
R
I E
R
R
E
E
F
Brisbane
Gold Coast
QUEENSLANDQueensland−overview
Queensland is Australia’s second largest state by land area, covering more than 22% of the continent. The
economy is the third largest in Australia, after New South Wales and Victoria.
Queensland’s natural wonder, the Great Barrier Reef, extends over some 2,000km, covering more than a
quarter of the State’s 7,400km of coastline.
With a population of 4.5 million, almost 20% of Australians live in Queensland. Some 2.5 million
Queenslanders live in the State’s south-east corner.
QUEENSLAND—QUICK FACTS
LAND AREA 1.73 million km2
QUEENSLAND POPULATION (MARCH 2010) 4.50 million
BRISBANE POPULATION* (JUNE 2009) 2.00 million
LANGUAGE English
CURRENCY Australian dollar (AUD)
GROSS STATE PRODUCT (YEAR END DECEMBER 2009) AUD232 billion (USD210 billion)
GROSS STATE PRODUCT (FIVE YEAR AVERAGE TO 2008-09) 4.09%
FLIGHT TIME: BRISBANE TO SYDNEY 1.5 hours
WORKFORCE** (AUGUST 2010) 2.3 million
INFLATION RATE (YEAR END JUNE 2010) 3.2%
OVERSEAS VISITORS (YEAR END JUNE 2010) 2.0 million
* Statistical Division ABS cat.no.3101.0 . ** Total number of people employed.
Sources: Queensland Treasury, Office of Economic and Statistical Research, Tourism Research Australia,
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 1 5
and Innovation and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.Queensland’s economic standing
Figure 6: Real Gross State Product/Gross Domestic Product growth
ESTIMATED
PAST (AVERAGE) FORECAST
ACTUAL
10 YEARS 5 YEARS 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Queensland’s economy 320.0 QUEENSLAND 4.54% 4.09% 1.21% 3.00%* 3.75%* 4.50%* 4.00%*
has grown faster AUSTRALIA 3.16% 2.91% 1.18% 2.27%** 3.00%** 3.75%** 3.00%**
than both the rest of 280.0
OECD 2.08% 1.62% -2.78% 0.29%*** 2.72%*** N/A N/A
Australia and other
240.0
advanced economies
Index (1986-87=100)
over the past 200.0
two decades.
In 2009-10, 160.0
Queensland’s Gross 120.0
State Product is
expected to have 80.0
expanded by 3.00%,
before accelerating as 40.0
business investment
0.0
recovers and resilient
2010-11 (f)
2011-12 (f)
2009-10 (ea)
2012-13 (p)
1986-87
1987-88
1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
demand from Asia
boosts coal exports.
Queensland Australia OECD
(e) = estimate, (ea) = estimated actual, (f) = forecast, (p) = projection
* From Queensland State Budget 2010-11, released 8 June 2010.
** From Australian Government’s Economic Statement, released 14 July 2010.
*** From the OECD Economic Outlook database. Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 1 6Figure 7: Queensland Trading Partner Economic Growth Performance
6
The majority of
Queensland’s 5
overseas exports
go to fast-growing 4
Asian countries. After
experiencing a milder 3
Annual % change
slowdown than many
advanced economies, 2
these countries are
poised to resume their 1
rapid pace of growth
going forward.
0
-1
-2
Jun-11 (f)
Jun-14 (f)
Dec-12 (f)
Sep-13 (f)
Dec-15 (f)
Jun-96
Jun-99
Jun-02
Jun-05
Jun-08
Mar-12 (f)
Mar-15 (f)
Sep-95
Dec-97
Sep-98
Dec-00
Sep-01
Dec-03
Sep-04
Dec-06
Sep-07
Dec-09
Sep-10
Mar-97
Mar-00
Mar-03
Mar-06
Mar-09
Note: Trading partners are top ten export destinations in the given quarter, re-weighted every quarter to capture changes in composition of top destinations over time.
(f) = forecast
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, IMF
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 1 7Queensland merchandise exports, year to July 2010 (year to July 2000)
Figure 8: By commodity Figure 9: By region
Queensland’s rural and
non-rural commodity
sectors contribute
substantially to the Coal Coal
48%48% (32%)
(32%) Asia excluding
Asia (excluding Japan 52%
Japan)* 52%(33%)
(33%)
State’s total Other (includes sugar) 30% (31%) Japan 22% (29%)
export earnings. Other (includes sugar) 30% (31%)~ Japan 22% (29%)
Non-ferrous metals 8% (13%) Europe and United Kingdom 11% (13%)
In 2009, exports made Non-ferrous metals 8% (13%) Europe and UK 11% (13%)
Meat 6% (13%) Other 10% (14%)
up over 30% of the Meat Metalliferous
6% (13%)ores and scrap 6% (6%) Other United
10% (14%)
States 2% (8%)
Queensland economy.
Over 80% of Queensland’s Metalliferous ores
Textile fibres and and scrap1%
their wastes 6%(4%)
(6%) UnitedNew
States 2%2%(7%)
Zealand (4%)
Cereals and cereal preparations 1% (2%)
exports are goods with the Textile fibres and their wastes 1% (4%) New Zealand 2% (4%)
remainer being services.
Cereals and cereal preparations 1% (2%)
Almost two-thirds of * Asia (excluding Japan) includes:
Queensland’s goods China 15.0% (3.1%) • India 12.6% (4.6%) • South Korea 10.9% (9.1%)
Taiwan 5.6% (4.5%) • Indonesia 2.7% (2.4%) • Malaysia 1.9% (3.0%)
exports go overseas, with
Other 1.0% (1.7%) • Thailand 0.8% (1.3%) • Hong Kong 0.8% (2.0%)
the remainder going Singapore 0.7% (1.2%)
elsewhere in Australia.
The Asian region remains
by far Queensland’s most
Note: Data may not add to 100% due to rounding.
important export market. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Queensland Government Office of Economics and Statistical Research.
~ Comprises mainly agricultural commodities
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 1 8Figure 10: Share of national output by state
GROWTH IN THE SHARE OF NATIONAL OUTPUT
130
High commodity
prices in recent years 125
have accelerated 120
Queensland economic
115
Index (1989-90=100)
activity relative to
the rest of Australia. 110
Consequently, 105
Queensland’s share of
Australia’s total output 100
has increased steadily 95
over the past decade
90
and a half.
85
80
2010-11 (f)
2011-12 (f)
2009-10 (ea)
2012-13 (p)
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
Queensland New South Wales Victoria Western Australia
(e) = estimate, (ea) = estimated actual, (f) = forecast, (p) = projection
Source: Various State Budgets and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 1 9Figure 11: Queensland output by sector, 2008-09 (1998-99)
Other services 21% (22%)
Other services 21% (21%)
Queensland’s economy Public sector 18% (19%)
is diversified across Public Sector 18% (19%)
Finance and property services 10% (8%)
many sectors,
including agriculture, Finance
Wholesale and
and retail property
trade services 10% (8%)
10% (11%)
construction
and mining. Wholesale
Mining 10% (6%) and retail 10% (11%)
Mining is the fastest TransportMining
and communications
10% (6%) 10% (10%)
growing industry
Manufacturing 8% (11%)
in the State having Transport and communications 10% (10%)
contributed 10% Construction 8% (7%)
to the Queensland Manufacturing 8% (11%)
Agriculture 3% (4%)
economy in 2008-09,
up from 6% Construction 8% (7%)
in 1998-99. OTHER SERVICES 21% (22%) INCLUDES: PUBLIC SECTOR 18% (19%) INCLUDES:
Dwellings 8% (9%) HealthAgriculture
6% (6%) 3% (4%)
Professional, scientific and technical 5% (4%) Education 4% (5%)
Accommodation and food 3% (4%) Public admin and safety 6% (6%)
Other services 2% (2%) Electricity, gas, water and waste 2% (2%)
Administrative and support 2% (2%)
Arts and recreation 1% (1%)
Note: Data may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Office of Economic and Statistical Research.
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 2 0Figure 12: Employment growth
PAST (AVERAGE) EST. ACTUAL FORECAST
10 YEARS 5 YEARS 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013 - 14
QUEENSLAND 3.25% 3.08% 0.94%* 2.75%* 3.25% 2.75% 2.75%
220 AUSTRALIA 2.24% 2.40% 1.36%** 2.25%** 2.00% 1.50% 1.50%
With the exception of 210
2009-10, Queensland’s 200
employment growth 190
rate has consistently 180
Index (1987-88=100)
exceeded that of the 170
national economy. This 160
outperformance likely 150
reflects Queensland’s 140
high population, 130
tourism and export
120
growth. Over the
110
forecast period,
100
employment growth
90
in Queensland is again
2010-11 (f)
2011-12 (f)
2009-10 (ea)
2012-13 (p)
2013-14 (p)
1987-88
1988-98
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
expected to exceed the
national average.
Queensland Australia
(e) = estimate, (ea) = estimated actual, (f) = forecast, (p) = projection
Note: Forecasts for Australia are on a through the year basis, while forecasts for Queensland are on a year average basis.
* From Queensland State Budget 2010-11, released 8 June 2010. ** From Australian Government’s Economic Statement, released 14 July 2010.
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Treasury, and Queensland Treasury.
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 2 1Figure 13: Population growth
PAST (AVERAGE) EST. ACTUAL FORECAST
180 10 YEARS 5 YEARS 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
QUEENSLAND 2.33% 2.54% 2.81% 2.25%* 2.25%* 2.25%
Solid population 170
growth has AUSTRALIA 1.46% 1.69% 2.17% 2.00%** 1.75%** 1.50%
underpinned 160
Queensland’s strong 150
Index (1987-88=100)
economic growth.
140
130
120
110
100
90
2010-11 (f)
2011-12 (f)
2009-10 (ea)
1987-88
1988-98
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
Queensland Australia
(e) = estimate, (ea) = estimated actual, (f) = forecast, (p) = projection
Note: Forecasts for Australia are on a calendar year basis while the forecasts for Queensland are financial year average forecasts
* From Queensland State Budget 2010-11, released 8 June 2010.
** From Australian Government’s 2010-11 Budget, released 11 May 2010. Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 2 2Figure 14: Queensland net migration, per quarter
24,000
22,000
Queensland continues
to attract people from 20,000
interstate and overseas 18,000
due to its economic 16,000
and environmental
appeal. 14,000
Number
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Sept-02
Sep-98
Sep-99
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Mar-98
Mar-99
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Net interstate migration Net overseas migration
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 2 3Figure 15: Queensland population age distribution: per cent of total
30
Queensland’s overseas
and interstate 25
migration is dominated
by younger-age
migrants. 20
Per cent of total
15
10
5
0
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Incumbent population Interstate migrants Overseas migrants
Source: ABS 2006 Census (released every five years—will next be conducted in 2011 and released in 2012).
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 2 4Queensland’s fiscal standing
Queensland Government’s fiscal framework
The Queensland Government is committed to six major fiscal principles:
1 In the General Government sector, meet all operating expenses from operating revenue
2 Growth in own purpose expenses in General Government sector to not exceed real per capita growth
3 Achieve a General Government net operating surplus as soon as possible, but no later than 2015-16
4 Maintain a competitive tax environment for business
5 Stabilise net financial liabilities as a proportion of revenue in the non-Financial Public Sector
6 Target full funding of long term liabilities such as superannuation in accordance with actuarial advice.
Queensland’s credit rating
LOCAL CURRENCY LONG–TERM SHORT–TERM OUTLOOK
Moody's Aa1 P1 STABLE
Standard & Poor’s AA+ A-1+ STABLE
Queensland’s credit rating reviews, by Standard and
Poor’s and Moody’s, are typically conducted between
FOREIGN CURRENCY LONG–TERM SHORT–TERM OUTLOOK July and October each year.
Moody's Aa1 P1 STABLE
Standard & Poor’s AA+ A-1+ STABLE
Q U E E N S L A N D T R E A S U R Y C O R P O R AT I O N 2 5You can also read
