RASSEGNA STAMPA ESTERA - 22 luglio 2020 - Unimpresa International
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RASSEGNA STAMPA
ESTERA
22 luglio 2020
La proprietà intellettuale degli articoli è delle fonti (quotidiani o altro) specificate all'inizio degli stessi; ogni
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improprio dello strumento o comunque non conforme a quanto specificato nei contratti di adesione al servizio.INDICE ECONOMIA 22/07/2020 Financial Times 4 LEX. INTERVISTE 22/07/2020 Le Monde 8 « Nous sous-estimons nos forces face à la Chine » STAMPA ESTERA 22/07/2020 Financial Times 12 Investors hail Brussels as a new force in bond issuance 22/07/2020 New York Times International Edition 14 Europe's great fall 22/07/2020 Les Echos 18 Le gouvernement italien crie victoire 22/07/2020 Le Figaro 19 Europe : questions sur un « accord historique » PRIME PAGINE 22/07/2020 Les Echos 22 PRIMA PAGINA
ECONOMIA 1 articolo
22/07/2020
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LEX.
Kuehne+Nagel: shipping forecast Like reeds bending in the breeze, equity market indices arc
ever higher this summer. Any economic good news is well received, the negative data quickly
forgotten. European transport and logistics groups have pleasantly surprised investors so far
with good earnings reports in the first half. Yesterday it was the turn of Swiss transport group
Kuehne + Nagel to deliver some happy news. Shipping and delivery groups benefited this
year not only from stayat-home consumers keen to shop but also from the urgent demand for
medical protective equipment and pharmaceuticals. Kuehne+Nagel has been no exception. Its
second-quarter turnover and operating profits beat expectations handily, the latter at
SFr235m ($251m) beat the consensus figure by half. That followed the good results from
Deutsche Post, which owns DHL as well as a separate freight forwarding business, this month.
This optimism is not unique to Europe, of course. FedEx reported good results last month,
though UPS noted that more ecommerce deliveries to households eats into profit margins.
What is notable in the US is the number of transport and warehousing jobs on offer. They are
by far the largest of any industry, according to data from online job site CareerBuilder. For
the Swiss group, the surprise on earnings was partly because of high demand and rates for
air freight services. Fewer passenger flights this year limits the supply of so-called belly cargo
in these jets, which provide 55 per cent of global air freight capacity. That will not change
soon. Kuehne +Nagel believes passenger flights will not return to normal scheduling for a
year or more. The better mix of business, tilted towards air freight, will not last forever. More
cargo is starting to travel by rail and ship. But chief executive Detlef Trefzger must feel pretty
confident still. He held back completing the 2019 dividend payout until he felt the time was
right. That time has come, he said yesterday. Mr Trefzger also reiterated plans to purchase an
Asian transport business in the near term. That last news should please shareholders hoping
the Swiss group can generate a bit more growth for this otherwise cash generative business.
The market has preferred its rival DSV Panalpina of Denmark for its acquisition strategy.
Right now, Kuehne +Nagel has the wind behind it. Asian techs/Hong Kong: taking sides
Abandoning Hong Kong as a regional hub for operations and data storage is not an easy
decision for western techs. Giants such as Facebook, Twitter and Google are reviewing their
operations in response to Beijing's sweeping new controls, but have not yet pulled out; access
to the mainland Chinese market may be too key to ignore. For Asian techs, however, the
faster the better when it comes to making the call. South Korean Google rival Naver has quit
Hong Kong - making it the first large foreign tech group to take action in response to China's
new laws. It has moved its data back-up centre, which has been in Hong Kong since 2016, to
Singapore. It is a good move. The consequences of leaving Hong Kong and risking Beijing's
ire are few. Most - about two-thirds - of Naver's revenues are made in its home market. The
US and Japan account for the rest. Messaging platforms including Japan-based WhatsApp
competitor Line - majority owned by Naver - are a significant contributor to revenues,
accounting for more than a third of total sales. China blocked Line messenger six years ago.
An outbreak-induced surge in local ecommerce transactions has boosted sales. Analysts
expect second-quarter operating profit to rise more than 70 per cent. That also means more
personal data, everything from shoe sizes to credit card numbers, pass through their data
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centres. Addressing users' privacy concerns quickly will help maintain that growth. Keeping its
operations in Hong Kong may have also led to troubles down the line. The US market has
proved a surprisingly strong source of growth. Webtoons, or web-based comics, have
garnered unprecedented interest amid lockdowns. Nearly a fifth of all Naver's webtoon
viewers are now in the US. Shares of Naver have more than doubled in the past year on
expectations that this trend will continue. Naver's smart move should help ensure shares
remain on an upwards trajectory. Ted Baker: worth a rummage UK clothing retailers have
been fashionably late to the stock market rally. Ted Baker's better than expected online
performance is eye-catching, even if the latest quarter's overall sales have more than halved
compared with those of a year ago. The rise in ecommerce sales - up a third on last year -
was good enough to send shares in Ted Baker up 13 per cent. Rival Superdry also gained a 9
per cent boost. Neither retailer was thriving before the outbreak. The travails of bricksand-
mortar stores, along with leadership challenges at both, wiped more than 75 per cent from
their share prices in the two years to the start of 2020. The pandemic pushed those declines
to greater than 90 per cent. Shares in both now sit at the very bottom of the bargain bucket.
A reset by new Ted Baker chief executive Rachel Osborne should pique the interest of value
hunters. The precipitous decline in Ted Baker's share price reflects the scale of the turnround
ahead. Following net losses of £70m last year, shoring up the balance sheet was the biggest
job. An equity offer raised £100m at the start of June, the sale and leaseback of its King's
Cross headquarters, known as the Ugly Brown Building, raised another £72m. That gave Ted
Baker a net cash position of £57m at the start of July. Excluding the new funds, net debt was
£20m lower than the first quarter at £116m. Improvements in stock management and
working capital should avoid a repeat of last year when more than half of accounting losses
came from inventory writedowns. Fewer suppliers and shifting from a three-year to twoyear
buying cycle should mean greater efficiency. Investors will have to wait until next year at the
earliest for an end to losses, when the consensus analysts' estimate suggests operating
profits of £15m. But a market capitalisation of £150m - less than the combined value of net
cash and inventories notes Liberum - is yet to price in recovery. Cariyle Group: midlife crisis
Leaving a chief executive's job after two years, when one is still in one's early 50s, seems like
a premature move. But, in private equity, it may be too late. Yesterday, private equity
pioneer Cariyle Group announced that co-CEO Glenn Youngkin would retire from the firm
aged 53. Mr Youngkin took over the day-to-day running of the business with Kewsong Lee in
2018. The turnround is quick but private equity bosses are facing a competitive landscape
that requires more stamina and intensity than ever. In 2020, Cariyle stock has lost 8 per
cent, while those of its biggest rivals - Apollo, KKR and Blackstone - have jumped between 2
per cent and 22 per cent. The other firms, also pioneers in leveraged buyouts, have
reoriented their businesses to alternative asset areas like credit, real estate or the use of their
own balance sheets to make big bets. Carlyle's largest segment remains corporate private
equity, accounting for $80bn of its $2l7bn of total assets under management. Cariyle has
made a number of missteps in recent years, including chasing hedge fund strategies. More
recently, it has jumped on the reinsurance bandwagon. It snatched insurance assets from AIG
to bolster its credit unit, which now manages $49bn. Cariyle has also been at the forefront of
corporate governance reform, collapsing its dual-class structure to create more interest
among institutional investors. Its massive size means that Cariyle will continue to generate an
enormous base of management fees. But, as the world has embraced private equity and
private debt, all sorts of serious competitors have emerged, including pensions and sovereign
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wealth funds. According to recent filings, Mr Youngkin owns just over 2 per cent of Cariyle.
That stake is worth more than $200m - a nice prize for a career that has lasted through the
golden era of private equity. The next generation of CEOs are likely to struggle to amass a
similar fortune.
Foto: Lex on the web For notes on today's breaking stories go to www.ft.com/lex
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INTERNATIONAL
« Nous sous-estimons nos forces face à la Chine »
Pour le dernier gouverneur de Hongkong, Chris Patten, Pékin a montré qu'on ne peut pas lui
faire confiance
ENTRETIEN Londres - correspondante Lord Chris Patten, 76 ans, fut le dernier gouverneur de
Hongkong (19921997), celui qui géra la rétrocession de l'ex-colonie britannique à la Chine. En
réponse à l'adoption, le 30 juin, d'une loi visant à museler la contestation du régime chinois
dans la ville, le Royaume-Uni durcit sa position vis-à-vis de Pékin, en suspendant lundi 20
juillet son traité d'extradition avec Hongkong, après avoir banni Huawei de ses réseaux 5G.
L'ex-commissaire européen et désormais recteur d'Oxford explique pourquoi les Européens -
Britanniques en tête - doivent cesser de sous-estimer leur pouvoir vis-à-vis de la
superpuissance asiatique. L'entretien a été réalisé avec un groupe de journaux
internationaux, dont Die Welt , El Pais , Libération ou le Neue Zürcher Zeitung .
Imaginiez-vous, lors de la rétrocession de Hongkong à la Chine, qu'on en serait à cette
situation d'imposition d'une loi de sécurité nationale par Pékin et de la fin du principe « un
pays, deux systèmes », qui devait garantir l'autonomie de la ville pendant un demi-siècle ? En
1997, quand nous avons quitté Hongkong, cette situation d'un territoire avec son haut degré
d'autonomie et son Etat de droit, devait perdurer pour cinquante ans. C'était ce que stipulait
la déclaration conjointe déposée aux Nations unies. A l'époque, j'avais quand même des
désac- cords avec des spécialistes de la Chine au Foreign Office, qui me disaient : les Chinois
sont des gens de parole. Mais les choses se sont finalement plutôt bien passées, à part une
ou deux difficultés, par exemple en 2003, quand il y a eu une première tentative d'imposer
une loi de sécurité nationale, un demi-million de personnes étaient descendues dans la rue.
Mais c'est depuis l'an dernier et le projet du gouvernement chinois d'une loi sur l'extradition
que la situation s'est détériorée. Hongkong a été victime du durcissement du régime
communiste (...) . Il y avait un sentiment croissant au sommet du pouvoir qu'avec la
globalisation, Internet, l'urbanisation du pays, le Parti communiste allait perdre sa capacité à
garder le contrôle sur le pays. Et depuis que Xi Jinping a accédé au pouvoir [en 2013] , les
dissidents ont été traités bien plus durement et les musulmans du Xinjiang d'une manière
épouvantable. Hongkong représentait tous ces aspects de la démocratie libérale, que le Parti
communiste chinois considère comme une menace à son hégémonie. Si les événements qui
s'y jouent sont si importants pour le reste du monde, c'est parce qu'ils montrent à quel point
il n'est pas possible de faire confiance à la Chine. Ils illustrent aussi ce conflit entre
démocratie libérale et autoritarisme qui se joue au XXI n'est pas de savoir si vous aimez la
Chine ou pas, mais si vous êtes prêts à résister à la politique d'intimidation du Parti
communiste chinois. Pour les Européens et les Britanniques, il ne devrait y avoir qu'une
réponse possible. L'Union européenne [UE] a répondu mollement, après l'imposition de la loi
de sécurité nationale à Hongkong, certains Etats dépendant fortement des investissements
chinois. Doit-elle se montrer plus dure, notamment l'Allemagne ? En tant que britannique, je
ne peux donner aucune leçon aux Européens - même si j'étais passionnément en faveur du
maintien du Royaume-Uni dans l'Union. Mais où sont les valeurs européennes avec ce qui se
passe en Hongrie et en Pologne [qui multiplient les atteintes à l'Etat de droit] ? Avec M. Orban
qui dénonce l'UE du lundi au vendredi et empoche les chèques européens du samedi au
dimanche ? La politique étrangère commune ne peut se fonder uniquement sur la base de
l'importance des montants que vous avez empruntés à la Chine ! Ce que Pékin a fait avec son
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initiative des « nouvelles routes de la soie » est d'exporter ses crédits et ses dettes à d'autres
pays. Cette di- plomatie de la dette risque de causer des dommages irréparables à l'UE. Il
s'agit d'un sujet fondamental auquel elle doit faire face même s'il risque de provoquer de
fortes tensions en son sein. Ce serait manquer de respect à Angela Merkel de penser qu'elle
ignore ce que veut dire vivre dans une société libre. Elle a grandi dans une société qui n'était
pas libre, elle sait la différence entre un Etat policier et un pays libre. Je suis sûr qu'elle
écoute les préoccupations des industriels allemands qui ont de gros intérêts en Chine, mais je
ne pense pas que la seule manière de convaincre les consommateurs chinois d'acheter des
voitures allemandes est de passer sous silence le génocide des Ouïgours ou l'agression envers
Hongkong. Le Brexit a-t-il à voir avec la ligne ferme adoptée par Londres vis-à-vis de Pékin ?
Soyons clairs, le Royaume-Uni serait dans une position bien meilleure si nous étions toujours
membres de l'UE pour adopter une ligne sensée et construire un dialogue sur le long terme
avec la Chine. Nous sommes dans une position bien moins forte désormais. Je suis satisfait
que nous ayons pris des mesures fermes mais j'espère que nous comprendrons que nous
aurons plus de chances de construire un monde plus sûr et soutenable si nous travaillons
avec nos collègues européens, ainsi qu'avec l'Australie, le Canada, la Nouvelle-Zélande ou les
Etats-Unis. Une de nos illusions nationales est basée sur cette notion d'exceptionnalisme :
nous, Britanniques, serions différents des autres Européens et aurions plus d'influence hors
de l'UE. Nous sommes la cinquième ou sixième économie au monde, notre enseignement
supérieur, notre culture, notre armée sont encore de grands atouts, mais nous ne pouvons
pas agir autant que nous le voudrions seuls. L'un des principaux slogans de la campagne
mensongère du Brexit [en 2016] était « Take back control » (« reprenez le contrôle »). Dans
le monde d'aujourd'hui, celui de la pandémie, reprendre le contrôle c'est travailler avec
d'autres. Quel type d'action souhaiteriezvous de la part des Européens, Britanniques compris,
pour prévenir l'agressivité chinoise ? J'espère qu'en novembre prochain [lors de l'élection
présiden- tielle] , nous aurons un président américain croyant aux alliances, car la vérité,
c'est qu'il est très difficile à l'Europe de bâtir une stratégie cohérente sur de grands sujets
sans implication des EtatsUnis. Si nous ne parvenons pas à travailler ensemble, la Chine va
cibler les pays les uns après les autres : l'Australie, l'Inde, etc. Nous ne devrions pas autant
nous laisser intimider. Si nous agissons de concert, nous pouvons faire face à une Chine qui
se comporte mieux, ce qui est dans nos intérêts et dans les siens. Nous sous-estimons nos
forces vis-à-vis de Pékin. Quand Liu Xiaobo [écrivain et militant des droits de l'homme] a reçu
le prix Nobel de la paix en 2010, la réaction immédiate du régime communiste a été de
menacer la Norvège : on ne vous achètera plus rien. La Norvège vend principalement du
saumon à la Chine. Devinez quoi ? Les ventes de saumon norvégien au Vietnam ont bondi, et
les ventes de saumon du Vietnam à la Chine ont bondi à leur tour... Pensez-vous que,
confronté à la résistance occidentale, le régime chinois pourrait adopter une diplomatie moins
agressive ? Question difficile. Je ne sais pas si le pouvoir chinois va comprendre à quel point il
a mal joué [en se mettant à dos nombre de démocraties] ou s'il a suffisamment de crédit
politique auprès de sa po- pulation pour revenir sur ses positions. Nous avons constaté la
montée du nationalisme chinois. C'est le sentiment nationaliste qui est attisé dans le cas des
frictions avec Taïwan ou l'Inde. Peutêtre que le pouvoir se sent obligé d'en passer par là,
parce que sa crédibilité dans la gestion de la crise du Covid-19 a été entamée et parce qu'il
sait que l'économie nationale est dans une bien moins bonne situation qu'il veut bien
l'admettre ? Le Royaume-Uni doit-il aller plus loin et imposer des sanctions individuelles
contre les dirigeants Chinois, visant leur traitement de la population ouïgoure ou de Hongkong
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? Nous venons d'introduire notre propre politique de sanctions basées sur les droits humains
[mijuillet] . Mais je suis plutôt partisan d'attendre de voir comment les Chinois vont utiliser le
mécanisme sécuritaire qu'ils ont implanté à Hongkong. Ce qui s'y passe est un exemple de ce
que le sinologue américain Perry Link [de l'université de Princeton] a appelé « l'Anaconda
dans le lustre » . Les gens savent qu'il y a quelque chose d'horrible au-dessus de leur tête
mais ne savent pas quand, ni si elle va leur tomber dessus. C'est le règne de la peur au lieu
de celui de l'Etat de droit. En général, je ne suis pas un partisan des sanctions, je suis en
revanche pour défendre l'Etat de droit. Vous êtes le recteur de la prestigieuse université
d'Oxford. N'êtes-vous pas inquiet de la perte de revenus pour l'institution, si les étudiants
chinois viennent moins nombreux ? Il est vrai que pour financer leur éducation supérieure, le
Royaume-Uni, comme l'Australie et quelques autres dépendent trop des étudiants étrangers,
notamment des Chinois. Je suppose [qu'au-delà des tensions diplomatiques] , le nombre
d'étudiants chinois va baisser à cause de l'épidémie et des difficultés à voyager. Mais j'espère
qu'Oxford va continuer à attirer des étudiants du monde entier. L'institution doit cependant
rester claire sur deux points : elle doit continuer à s'opposer à toute forme de racisme, à
toute forme de sinophobie. Elle doit aussi très fermement défendre les valeurs de la
démocratie libérale, elle doit rester au cœur de ce qu'elles signifient. propos recueillis par
cécile ducourtieux « Si nous ne parvenons pas à travailler ensemble, la Chine va cibler les
pays les uns après les autres » LE PROFIL Chris Patten Né en 1944, Chris Patten est élu à la
Chambre des communes en 1979, avant de devenir secrétaire d'Etat à l'environnement de
Margaret Thatcher puis de prendre la présidence, en 1990, du Parti conservateur. Il est
nommé gouverneur de Hongkong en 1992, et sera le dernier à occuper cette fonction avant le
retour de la cité dans le giron chinois en 1997. Il a ensuite été commissaire européen chargé
des relations extérieures de 1999 à 2004, a dirigé le BBC Trust, et est aujourd'hui recteur de
l'université d'Oxford.
Foto: L'ancien drapeau colonial est brandi lors d'une manifestation à Hongkong, le 1
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Fixed income. Recovery fund deal
Investors hail Brussels as a new force in bond issuance
Move could create new pricing benchmark and bolster euro's status as a reserve currency
'There's a huge amount of demand out there for these kind of assets,'
TOMMY STUBBINGTON - MARTIN ARNOLD
LONDON - FRANKFURT The EU is set to become one of Europe's largest bond issuers as it
turns to financial markets to fund the €750bn coronavirus recovery package agreed early
yesterday. Investors said the coming explosion in debt issuance by Brussels could help create
a new pricing benchmark across the region, while bolstering the euro's role as a reserve
currency. "I think this will transform capital markets in Europe," said Philip Brown, head of
public sector debt capital markets at Citi. "You'll have a shared safe asset that's large enough
to find its way into government bond indices and government bond portfolios." The EU
already has a small presence in bond markets, with about €50bn of bonds outstanding, most
of which was used to fund loans to Ireland and Portugal during the region's debt crisis nearly
a decade ago. But that sum will be dwarfed by €196bn of debt sales next year alone, with
similar amounts to follow in 2022 and 2023, according to projections by Citi strategist Michael
Spies. By the end of next year, the EU's borrowings (including other Europe-wide institutions
such as the region's bailout funds and the European Investment Bank) will total €980bn,
roughly the size of Spain's bond market. Only the heavyweight trio of Italy, France and
Germany will eclipse Brussels' own debt pile, according to Mr Spies. The recovery fund deal
represents the first time EU leaders have agreed to joint debt issuance on a meaningful scale,
according to Paul O'Connor, head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors. "The
symbolism here is very important," he said, describing the move as the eurozone's "first real
attempt at mutualising debt and its biggest step yet towards fiscal integration". Bond
investors have few options if they want to buy top-quality European debt in large sizes.
Berlin's frugality over the past decade has led to a dwindling supply of German Bunds, while
Italy and France, the bloc's two largest debtors, do not have premier credit ratings. But the
EU is rated triple A by two of the three big agencies. "There's a huge amount of demand out
there for these kind of assets," said Iain Stealey, chief investment officer for international
fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. "And they'll be attractively priced relative to
cash or German bonds. You get a yield of close to zero, and it's a sign of the world we live in
that that's exciting." An EU bond maturing in 2031 trades atayield of minus 0.14 percent,
roughly in line with similar French debt but well above the German equivalent, which yields
minus 0.47 per cent. Riskier debt across the eurozone rallied as EU leaders neared a deal on
Monday, pushing Italy's 10-year yield to 1.07 per cent, the lowest since early March. Fund
managers such as Mr Stealey said a deeper pool of EU issuance should make Italian debt
more attractive, because Rome will be able to fund at least part of its response to the crisis at
cheaper rates. The European Central Bank, for its part, has announced plans to buy almost an
extra €1.5tn of bonds in response to the economic and financial fallout from the pandemic, on
top of the €2.6tn it already owns. But the ECB has been criticised for weighting its bond
purchases towards the hardest hit countries - such as Italy - and could now shift some of its
purchases towards the new EU bonds. The central bank can buy up to 50 per cent of debt
issued by supranational institutions. The new supply of EU bonds is also likely to catch the
eye of foreign reserves managers, potentially bolstering the appeal of the euro, according to
ING strategist Antoine Bouvet. "This borrowing may be temporary in nature, but it's big
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enough and liquid enough ... to think about buying," he said. Some investors are unconvinced
the recovery fund is a stepping stone to greater fiscal integration within the eurozone. The
€750bn of grants and loans for member states comes with conditions attached - including a
requirement to undertake economic reforms. "Everything about this is limited and
conditional," said James Athey, a fund manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments. "Italy
can't just take this money and pay its civil servants. If... this crisis can't get us to more
meaningful fiscal transfers between members, it's hard to see what can." Moreover, in one
crucial respect, the EU issuance stops short of a full mutualisation of debt. The bonds come
without so-called cross default clauses, which means that individual member states are not on
the hook for repayment if Brussels were to default. That makes the EU's triple-A status
vulnerable to any future political crisis, according to Moritz Kraemer, former head of sovereign
ratings at Standard & Poor's. The recovery loans are not due to be repaid in full for nearly
four decades, leaving plenty of time for questions about the EU's future to re-emerge. "A
traumatic EU break-up looks unlikely today," Mr Kraemer said. "But a lot can go wrong before
2058." See Markets Insight Brussels' bond issuance is set to explode Annual bond sales by
the EU (€bn) H I EU past funding • Ü Old programmes Sure programme Ä i Recovery fund - I
1 I 1 I I I 2010 12 Sources: EU; Citi Research 14 16 18 Citi forecast r f 20 1 i 1 22 i 8 i 24
200 150 100 50 Fast FT Our global team gives you market-moving news and views, 24 hours
a day ft.com/fastft
Foto: Alongside the EU's actions the European Central Bank, is to buy almost an extra €1.5tn
of bonds in response to the economic and financial fallout from the pandemic
Foto: Boris Roessler/äpa/AFP/Getty
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Europe's great fall
A false sense of security lulled countries until the virus overwhelmed them
BY DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK, MATT APUZZO AND SELAM GEBREKIDAN
Prof. Chris Whitty, Britain's chief medical adviser, stood before an auditorium in a London
museum two years ago, cataloging deadly epidemics.From the Black Death of the 14th
century to cholera in war-torn Yemen, it was a grim history. But Professor Whitty, who had
spent most of his career fighting infectious diseases in Africa, was reassuring. Britain, he said,
had a special protection."Being rich," he explained. Wealth "massively hardens a society
against epidemics," he argued, and quality of life - food, housing, water and health care - was
more effective than any medicine at stopping the diseases that ravaged the developing
world.Professor Whitty's confidence was hardly unique. As recently as February, when
European health ministers met inBrussels to discuss the coronavirus emerging in China, they
commended their own health systems and promised to send aid to poor and developing
countries."Responsibility is incumbent on us, not only for Italy and Europe, but also for the
African continent," said Roberto Speranza, Italy's health minister."The European Union should
be ready for support," agreed Maggie De Block, who was then Belgium's health
minister.Barely a month later, Europe was overwhelmed. Instead of merely providing aid to
former colonies, Western Europe became an epicenter of the pandemic. Officials once boastful
about their preparedness were frantically trying to secure protective gear and materials for
tests, as death rates soared in Britain, France, Spain, Italy and Belgium.This was not
supposed to happen. The expertise and resources of Western Europe were expected to
provide the antidote to viral outbreaks flowing out of poorer regions. Many European leaders
felt so secure after the last pandemic - the 2009 swine flu - that they scaled back stockpiles
of equipment and faulted medical experts for overreacting.But that confidence would prove
their undoing. Their pandemic plans were built on a litany of miscalculations and false
assumptions. European leaders boasted of the superiority of their worldclass health systems
but had weakened them with a decade of cutbacks. When Covid-19 arrived, those systems
were unable to test widely enough to see the peak coming or to guarantee the safety of
health care workers after it hit.Accountability mechanisms proved toothless. Thousands of
pages of national pandemic planning turned out to be little more than exercises in
bureaucratic busy work. Officials in some countries barely consulted their plans; in other
countries, leaders ignored warnings about how quickly a virus could spread.European Union
checks of each country's readiness had become rituals of self-congratulation. Mathematical
models used to predict pandemic spreads - and to shape government policy - fed a false
sense of security.National stockpiles of medical supplies were revealed to exist mostly on
paper, consisting in large part of "just in time" contracts with manufacturers in China.
European planners overlooked the risk that a pandemic, by its global nature, could disrupt
those supply chains. National wealth was powerless against worldwide shortages.Belgium, by
some measures, has the world's highest death rate. Italy's wealthiest region was shattered.
France's much-praised health system was reduced to relying on military helicopters to rescue
patients from overcrowded hospitals. Britain, though, most embodies Europe's miscalculations
because of the country's great pride in its expertise and readiness.Prime Minister Boris
Johnson was so confident that Britain's modelers could forecast the epidemic with precision,
records and testimony show, that he delayed locking down the country for days or weeks
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after most of Europe. He waited until two weeks after British emergency rooms began to
buckle under the strain, with the number of infections doubling every three days. Some
scientists now say that locking down a week sooner might have saved 30,000 lives.Sir David
King, a former British chief science officer, said, "The word 'arrogance' comes to mind, I am
afraid." He added: "What hubris."Fear swept the region. It was spring of 2009 and a new
virus that became known as swine flu had infected hundreds and killed dozens in Mexico.
European vacationers swarmed airports to get home. Experts recalled the flu pandemic of
1918, which killed as many as 50 million people around the world.European governments
sprang into action. France asked the E.U. to cut off travel to Mexico and began buying doses
of vaccine for everyone in the country. British hospitals enlisted retired health workers and
distributed stockpiled masks, gloves and aprons.Every country in Europe had drawn up and
rehearsed its own detailed pandemic plan, often running into the hundreds of pages. Britain's
plans read like the script of a horror movie, if written in the language of a bureaucrat. More
than 1.3 million people could be hospitalized and 800,000 could die. Trying to contain the
pandemic "would be a waste of public health resources."These doomsday scenarios drew on a
new subspecialty of epidemiology pioneered by British scientists: using abstruse
mathematical models to project the path of a contagious disease.One early disciple, Neil
Ferguson of Imperial College London, had assumed a pre-eminence in British health policy.An
epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease among livestock in Britain in 2001 was the first time
policymakers relied on such modeling while addressing an outbreak. Over the objections of
veterinarians, Ferguson's work guided policymakers to preventively slaughter more than six
million pigs, sheep and cattle.Later studies concluded most of the killing had been needless.A
review commissioned by the government urged that policymakers "must not rely on the
model to make a decision for them."Yet when swine flu emerged, British leaders again turned
to Ferguson and the large modeling department he had built at Imperial College. He projected
that swine flu, in a reasonable worst case, could kill nearly 70,000.But the modelers'
"reasonable worst case" was wildly off. Swine flu ended up killing fewer than 500 people in
Britain, fewer than a seasonal flu.Some experts now say Europe learned the wrong lesson
from the swine flu."It created some kind of complacency," said Prof. Steven Van Gucht, a
virologist involved in the Belgian response. "Oh, a pandemic again? We have a good health
system. We can cope with this."It also coincided with Europe's worst economic slump in
decades. French legislators were furious at the cost of buying millions of doses of vaccines
and faulted the government for needlessly stockpiling more than 1.7 billion protective
masks.To cut costs, France, Britain and other governments shifted more of their stockpiles to
"just in time" contracts. Health officials assumed that even in a crisis, they could buy what
they needed on the international market, typically from China, which manufactures more than
half the world's masks.By the start of 2020, France's supply of masks had fallen by more than
90 percent, to just 150 million.On the surface, Europe's defenses still looked robust. E.U.
reviews of each country's pandemic readiness seemed to provide oversight. But the process
was misleading.National governments barred the European Center for Disease Prevention and
Control from setting benchmarks or pointing out deficiencies. So the agency's public remarks
were almost unfailingly positive.Britain, Spain and Greece were lauded for their "highly
motivated experts," "trusted expert organizations" and "confidence in the system.""We
couldn't say, 'You should have this,'" said Arthur Bosman, a former agency trainer. "The
advice and the assessment had to be phrased in an observation."On Jan. 28, British scientists
raised an alarm.The expanding epidemic was setting off a global run on personal protective
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equipment, specifically on the face-covering mechanical hoods that provide the gold standard
of safety.A decision to stock up any later "could pose a risk in terms of availability," warned
the government's respiratory virus advisory panel.It is unclear when Britain began in earnest
to try to augment its supplies of protective equipment.The Doctors' Association UK, an
advocacy group, later said it had received more than 1,300 complaints from doctors at more
than 260 hospitals about inadequate protective equipment. At least 300 British health
workers eventually died after contracting Covid-19.In Belgium, a shortage of masks became
so desperate that King Philippe personally brokered a donation from theChinese tech
company Alibaba.European and global health officials had thoroughly reviewed Belgium's
pandemic plan over the years. But when Covid-19 hit, Belgian officials did not even consult
it."It has never been used," said Dr. Emmanuel André, who was drafted to help lead the
country's coronavirus response.In Britain, Mr. Johnson told the public to stay "confident and
calm." But the same day, Feb. 11, the government's Scientific Advisory Group for
Emergencies, or SAGE, privately concluded that the country's diminished health system was
incapable of widespread Covid-19 testing, even by the end of the year."It is not possible," the
group's minutes note.British scientists and officials nonetheless thought they knew better
than other countries, like China and South Korea. Those countries were driving down the
infection rate by imposing lockdowns. British science advisers thought such restrictions were
shortsighted. Unless the restrictions were permanent, any reduction of the epidemic would be
lost to a "second peak," SAGE concluded, according to its minutes and three
participants.Britain reported its first death from the virus on March 5. Across Europe, the
number of confirmed cases was doubling every three days. Much of northern Italy was
already locked down.Testifying that day before a parliamentary committee, Professor Whitty,
the chief medical adviser, was steady and comforting. Slightly hunched over a table in a small
hearing room, he told lawmakers to place their trust in Britain's modelers.They were "the best
in the world," he said. "We will be able to model this out, as it starts to accelerate, with a fair
degree of confidence."But doctors in British hospitals were already feeling rising pressure.
Intensive care wards were pushed to more than double their capacity in Birmingham, London
and elsewhere."It became clear that the pandemic plan wasn't going to cut it," said Jonathan
Brotherton, chief operating officer of University Hospitals Birmingham, England's largest
health system.Britain, Spain, Belgium, France and Italy have now reported some of the
highest per capita death tolls in the world. More than 30,000 people have died in France, and
President Emmanuel Macron has admitted his government was unprepared."This moment,
let's be honest, has revealed cracks, shortages," he said.After 44,000 coronavirus deaths in
Britain, officials continue to defend their actions. The government's response "allowed us to
protect the vulnerable and ensured that the National Health Service was not overwhelmed,
even at the virus' peak," a health department spokesman said.But Mr. Johnson has admitted
that his government had responded "sluggishly," as in "that recurring bad dream when you
are telling your feet to run and your feet won't move."On Tuesday, after nearly five days of
intense haggling, European Union leaders stepped up to confront one of the gravest
challenges in the bloc's history, agreeing to a landmark spending package to rescue their
economies from the ravages of the pandemic.The stimulus agreement - worth 750 billion
euros, or $857 billion, and spearheaded by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and
President Macron of France - sent a strong signal of solidarity even as it exposed deep fault
lines in a bloc reshaped by Britain's exit."A very special construct of 27 countries of different
backgrounds is actually able to act together," Ms. Merkel said in a news conference at dawn,
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Rome se félicite d'un succès sur toute la ligne à l'issue du sommet européen. Elle recevra
209 milliards d'euros sur les 750 milliards d'euros du plan Next Generation EU. Des
ressources qui seront débloquées à la majorité qualifiée des Etats membres et non à
l'unanimité comme le voulaient les Pays-Bas.
Le gouvernement italien crie victoire
L'Italie crie victoire. « Notre dignité a été préservée. Avec plus de 200 milliards d'euros nous
pouvons faire repartir le pays », s'est félicité Giuseppe Conte. Le président du Conseil italien
s'était présenté en chef de file des pays du Sud défiant « l'égoïsme des pays frugaux qui
mettent en péril l'avenir du projet européen ». La péninsule voit le sien avec un peu plus
d'optimisme, tout en sachant que les aides européennes ne lui éviteront pas la pire récession
de la zone euro avec un effondrement de son PIB estimé à plus de 11 % cette année.Friandes
de comparaisons footballistiques, la presse comme la classe politique étaient unanimes pour «
supporter l'équipe nationale jouant le match du siècle ». Elle a arraché une victoire à la
dernière minute. « La Nation passe avant les factions », avait résumé Giorgia Meloni, la
leader du parti néofasciste Fratelli d'Italia. Même la Ligue de Matteo Salvini avait retenu ses
critiques tout en craignant « une arnaque » de la part de Bruxelles.Ce mardi matin, les
médias italiens saluent un succès historique pour le pays. A commencer par le statut de
principal bénéficiaire du plan de relance massif de 750 milliards d'euros, bien que la part des
subventions ait été ramenée de 500 milliards à 390 milliards d'euros.Celles que percevra
Rome ont été légèrement rognées de 3,8 milliards d'euros pour s'établir à 81,4 milliards
d'euros. L'enveloppe des prêts qui lui sera consentie a, en revanche, été augmentée de 27 %
et s'élèvera à 127 milliards d'euros. Mais au-delà de ces ressources d'un montant total de
209 milliards d'euros, alors que l'Italie en espérait initialement 173 milliards, c'est le
mécanisme de leur octroi dont s'enorgueillit le plus Giuseppe Conte.Il reviendra à la
Commission de Bruxelles d'approuver les plans nationaux pour accéder aux fonds européens,
puis le Conseil validera la proposition de la Commission à la majorité qualifiée des Etats
membres (55 % des pays de l'UE représentant 65 % de la population totale). Aucune
unanimité donc, comme le souhaitait le Premier ministre hollandais Mark Rutte.Il obtient en
revanche la possibilité qu'un Etat demande la suspension du versement des ressources en cas
de non-respect des engagements pris. Ceux de l'Italie pour son plan de relance seront mis au
point ces prochains jours par une task force qui dialoguera avec l'opposition, assure Giuseppe
Conte. « Le gouvernement italien est fort et le succès du sommet européen le renforce, a-t-il
ajouté. Maintenant, nous avons une grande responsabilité. Avec 209 milliards d'euros, nous
pouvons changer le visage de l'Italie. Maintenant nous devons courir. »
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Europe : questions sur un « accord historique »
Derrière l'accord pour un plan de relance massif conclu par les Vingt-Sept, bien des questions
se posent sur l'utilisation des fonds et les conditions de leur attribution.
ANNE ROVAN @AnneRovan CORRESPONDANTE À BRUXELLES
L'ACCORD SUR LE PLAN de relance européen est « historique » et Emmanuel Macron se
devait d'en convaincre les Français qui s'inquiètent de la crise et ceux qui redoutent des
nouvelles prérogatives données à Bruxelles. « Ce ne sont pas les contribuables français qui
paieront cette dette » du plan de relance, a promis le président. « C'est le moment le plus
important de la vie de notre Europe depuis la création de l'euro », a-t-il insisté.Revenu de
Bruxelles mardi matin, le président était le soir même l'invité du JT de TF1 pour défendre la
décision des Vingt-Sept. Le plan de relance est effectivement révolutionnaire au sens où il
correspond à un changement de paradigme. Pour la première fois, un emprunt commun va
être contracté. Ce qui, au-delà de son montant pharamineux de 750 milliards d'euros, revient
à briser un tabou et à lier un peu plus les Européens dans un avenir commun. Ces sommes
vont permettre des transferts entre États membres pour plus de solidarité.Alors que les
économies européennes ont dévissé depuis mars, les États membres recevront de l'argent
pour les aider à financer leurs plans de relance nationaux : 40 milliards d'euros pour la
France, 80 milliards pour l'Italie, une soixantaine pour l'Espagne. L'emprunt les liera aussi
dans le temps, puisqu'il sera remboursé sur trente ans, jusqu'en 2057. Il pourrait aussi être le
prélude à la montée en puissance d'une vraie fiscalité européenne. Bref, lorsqu'ils ont topé
mardi, à 5 h 16 du matin, après 90 heures de discussion, les VingtSepty compris les «
frugaux » même s'ils affirment le contraire savaient qu'une étape vers plus d'intégration
venait d'être franchie, comme c'est d'ailleurs le cas à chaque fois qu'une crise frappe
l'Europe.Pour autant, cet accord n'est que le point de départ d'un long et périlleux parcours.
Avant de permettre à la Commission d'emprunter sur les marchés, les Vingt-Sept doivent
obtenir le feu vert de tous les Parlements nationaux et régionaux de l'UE à l'augmentation du
plafond de ressources du budget de l'UE. Dans ce contexte et parce qu'il n'est pas question de
faire capoter l'accord, les leaders de l'UE ne se font pas prier pour dire que « beaucoup de
concessions » ont été consenties aux États membres, comme l'a souligné Ursula von der
Leyen, lundi matin.Beaucoup d'autres questions restent en suspens. Notamment celle des
ressources propres (lire ci-contre) qui pourraient donner lieu à de nouvelles bagarres
homériques entre les Vingt-Sept. Au moins auront-ils intérêt cette fois à se mettre d'accord «
vite », s'ils ne veulent pas avoir à commencer à rembourser la facture en 2027 sur leurs
budgets nationaux.En chair et en osAu cours du sommet des derniers jours, l'Europe ne s'est
pas montrée sous son meilleur visage. Tout avait pourtant bien commencé vendredi matin,
lorsque les VingtSept - masqués - se sont retrouvés dans la grande salle du Conseil, ravis de
se voir en chair et en os pour la première fois depuis plus de quatre mois. Ils étaient tout
sourire, se donnant des coups de coude pour se saluer, avant que ne débute la réunion à
vingt-sept... On fêtait aussi ce jour-là l'anniversaire d'Angela Merkel et du Portugais Antonio
Costa. Bref, le temps était au beau fixe, un exploit à Bruxelles. Mais l'argent n'est jamais une
question facile pour les Européens. Comment pouvait-il en être autrement alors que les
leaders devaient, cette fois, s'entendre non seulement sur un budget d'environ 1 100
milliards, mais surtout sur ce plan de relance à 750 milliards d'euros ?Vendredi soir, lors du
dîner, l'ambiance s'est rafraîchie, Mark Rutte remettant sur la table le droit de veto destiné à
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bloquer le décaissement des fonds aux pays ne proposant des plans de relance suffisamment
pertinents à ses yeux ou tardant à mettre en oeuvre des réformes. Un droit de veto dont ne
veulent pas entendre parler les pays du Sud, mais sur lequel ils ont dû arrondir les angles.
Moins de subventions, plus de contrôle sur les fonds prêtés, plus de rabais. Voilà les sujets
chers aux « frugaux » qui ont dominé les débats durant quatre jours. Jusqu'à faire sortir de
ses gonds Emmanuel Macron dimanche soir. « Je n'ai aucun problème. Si vous voulez rompre,
il n'y a pas de problème. Je prépare ma conférence de presse avec Angela Merkel et nous
expliquerons que les "frugaux" ont bloqué l'accord », s'est énervé le président. Enfoncé dans
son fauteuil, d'une voix à peine audible, le premier ministre suédois, Stefan Löfven, a
immédiatement réagi : «Non, non. On continue. » De nombreuses concessions ont été faites
pour arracher cet accord, sur l'État de droit mais aussi sur l'objectif carbone 2050. Mark Rutte
a également obtenu son mécanisme de frein. À quand un sommet pour jauger le plan de
relance italien à la demande des Pays-Bas ? « C'est lui qui a été le plus difficile au plan
politique, parce qu'il a une vraie opposition aux subventions », confie un diplomate.Bien avant
que ne débute la réunion, Mark Rutte et ses amis « frugaux » - avaient de toute façon
l'avantage dans le rapport de force. Ils savaient en effet que Paris et Berlin tenaient
viscéralement à ce plan dans lequel Emmanuel Macron et Angela Merkel avaient d'ailleurs mis
tout leur poids politique. Il n'ignorait pas non plus que l'Allemagne, qui a pris début juillet la
présidence tournante de l'UE, ne pouvait se permettre un échec et souhaitait, plus que la
France sans doute, un accord rapide afin que ce dossier ne cannibalise pas un agenda par
ailleurs très chargé et une rentrée qui le sera tout autant, avec le sujet difficile des relations
commerciales futures entre l'UE et le Royaume-Uni. Enfin, le président du Conseil européen,
Charles Michel, se devait de tourner la page de son échec de février, lors des discussions à
vingt-sept sur le projet de budget européen. L'accord a été arraché. Charge aux Vingt-Sept
d'être à la hauteur.Submit Comment Politica di presentazione
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