Recommendations to CDC for its Climate Strategy approach with Financial Institutions - INSEAD recommendations to CDC's FI team Celine Dumas, Cesar ...

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Recommendations to CDC for its Climate Strategy approach with Financial Institutions - INSEAD recommendations to CDC's FI team Celine Dumas, Cesar ...
Recommendations to CDC for its Climate Strategy approach with Financial Institutions
INSEAD recommendations to CDC’s FI team

Celine Dumas, Cesar Miranda, Matteo Parenti, Eva Perrett, Andrew Watcham, Katrina Yavash
Recommendations to CDC for its Climate Strategy approach with Financial Institutions - INSEAD recommendations to CDC's FI team Celine Dumas, Cesar ...
CONTENTS

           Context

           Climate Finance Space

           Approach: Invest, Influence, and Involve

           Recommendations

           Appendix

                                                      2
Recommendations to CDC for its Climate Strategy approach with Financial Institutions - INSEAD recommendations to CDC's FI team Celine Dumas, Cesar ...
Executive Summary
The following work was done for the financial institutions equity team (FI Team) of CDC Group, a sector team within CDC’s Direct Equity team. CDC supports businesses
throughout Africa and South Asia to create jobs and make a lasting difference to people’s lives. The company has investments in over 1,200 businesses in emerging
economies and a total portfolio value of £5.8bn. This year CDC is expected to invest over $1.5bn in companies in Africa and Asia with a focus on fighting climate change,
empowering women and creating new jobs and opportunities for millions of people. CDC’s ambition is to play a leading role amongst its DFI peers and the wider investment
community in the global efforts to achieve a net zero carbon economy by 2050.
This document does not represent views of CDC, but the INSEAD team’s own independent recommendations to CDC and its Financial Institutions (FI) team, the sector team
within CDC who is the primary recipient of this document. CDC is expected to launch a new climate change strategy in 2020. This document is expected to inform CDC’s
own strategy which is being developed independently.
Climate change is a worldwide risk that generally impacts emerging countries more than developed countries. Climate risks can have a material impact on both the real
economy and the financial system. The overall finance industry is moving towards ESG and institutional investors towards “green” impact investing. By providing
adapted financing solutions, FIs can promote sustainable development. Financial Institutions looking to advance their climate missions should focus on some key end-
industries. More specifically, FIs must adapt to mitigate these risks and support economies in their green transitions. The taxonomy of climate change investing
frameworks, evaluation and reporting systems is maturing. Many of CDC’s peers have taken decisive action, consistent with their own sustainability goals.
The FI Team should (continue to) work with three stakeholder groups to pursue its climate mission. The FI Team should use 3 I’s in pursuing their climate strategy:
1. Invest
   FI targets are evaluated along three categories in DD phase to identify the appropriate engagement type. Detailed criteria have been defined to assign a climate score to
   each potential target. Example criteria include product offering and financial advisory (demand). Case study 1: Crop insurance in Africa protects
   the incomes of farmers. Case study 2: Intermediate loans by the EIB financed low-carbon public transport projects in Bulgaria.
2. Influence
   Following the investment assessment, a roadmap to climate readiness has been developed. CDC can play a role in driving investees to be more climate-conscious,
   building on the TCFD. CDC can support its investees in becoming more climate friendly in several specific ways. CDC can play a range of different roles to boost its
   investees’ climate maturity. Existing examples show how different types of FI can implement best practices. Case study: Access, an African bank with few climate-related
   projects, could be an influence target for CDC.
3. Involve
   CDC should work with co-investors and peers (incl. through blended-finance) in targeted ways to increase its efficacy in sustainability. CDC can partner with risk-analysis
   providers to improve their due diligence and increase their influence. Multilateral Development Banks have already formed partnerships to maximize their collective impact.
   Case study: CDC could collaborate with Global Parametrics in five different ways.
Once FI’s climate strategy is further defined, we suggest deployment in three phases over the next two years. Each phase will combine a broad range of activities to build and
embed the FI Team’s new climate strategy. Exceeding the 1.5°C target increase could adversely impact returns of some industries and asset classes. For example, a
climate-related disaster - the 2011 Thai floods - significantly hurt financials in the hardware sector. However, there are a number of key risks and challenges that CDC must
remain cognizant of. Hedging such risks and working toward a 1.5°C scenario could bring significant value to CDC and its investees.
                                                                                                                                                                                 3
Recommendations to CDC for its Climate Strategy approach with Financial Institutions - INSEAD recommendations to CDC's FI team Celine Dumas, Cesar ...
CONTEXT
Recommendations to CDC for its Climate Strategy approach with Financial Institutions - INSEAD recommendations to CDC's FI team Celine Dumas, Cesar ...
CDC supports businesses in Africa & South Asia to
          create jobs & make a lasting difference to people’s lives
 Overview                                                               Portfolio size ($bn)                                            Direct jobs supported….
• CDC is UK government owned and operationally independent              Invested in >1,200 businesses (>690 in Africa)                  … at BoP by investee companies
  (public limited company with DFID as sole shareholder)                                                                                                                                820
• Support economic growth while delivering returns for taxpayers                                                  $4.8
                                                                                                                         $5.3    $5.6
                                                                                                                                                                              671
                                                                                                  $4.5    $4.4                   11%                  632        605
• Invests in South Asia and Africa                                                 $3.6
                                                                                          $4.0                                              509
                                                                                                                                 35%
Investment products:                                                        $3.0

• Direct equity
                                                                                                                                 52%
  • Typically influential minority positions
  • Ticket size: min $10m - $150m                                           2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018                        2014      2015        2016        2017       2018
• Debt                                                                               Africa     South Asia       RoW     Total
  • Project finance
  • Corporate debt
                                                                        Portfolio product breakdown                                     Portfolio sector breakdown
  • Trade finance
                                                                                                  1%
  • Financial institutions lending                                                    17%
                                                                                                                                                     35%
                                                                                                                                                                                27%

  • Ticket size: $20m – $100m
• Intermediated equity and debt                                                                                   47%
  • Active limited partner investing in funds across priority sectors
Recommendations to CDC for its Climate Strategy approach with Financial Institutions - INSEAD recommendations to CDC's FI team Celine Dumas, Cesar ...
The Paris Agreement gives CDC a far-reaching climate
mandate to inform any future strategy
 CDC’s ambition is to play a leading role amongst its DFI peers and the wider investment community in the
 global efforts to achieve a net zero carbon economy by 2050
                  CDC identified combating climate change as a key commitment area in its 2017-2021 Strategic Framework
                                     CDC is expected to launch a new climate change strategy in 2020

  CDC’s approach to climate will likely impact how CDC invests and operates
                                                                                                                              “How it operates”
                                                   “How it invests”
                                                                                                                      Ensure future proof of CDC’s financial return and
                    Understand climate impact of portfolio and providing and                                          development impact by creating risk governance
                    mobilizing capital in climate sectors (e.g., green buildings,                                  structures, hedging financial risks, and maintaining
                    forestry, resilience of agriculture / ports), as well as adding                            accountability through scenario analyses and appropriate
                                               value to their firms beyond capital                                                                              metrics

  … drawing on alignment with the Paris Agreement
                      Net zero emissions
                                                                                 Just transition                                   Adaptation & Resilience
                            by 2050
                                                                                                                           Addressing vulnerabilities to climate shocks in
      Reducing resource consumption and carbon                                                                                sectors at risk (e.g., construction & real
                                                                      Delivering a net zero future in a socially
    emissions through investments in various sectors                                                                       estate, agriculture) and building up resilience
                                                                       inclusive manner, through job creation/
     (e.g., renewable energy, transport) to ensure a                                                                              (e.g., water infrastructure, etc.)
                                                                      upskilling in low-carbon/ resilient sectors
     maximum global temperature increase of 1.5°C

       FI Team is currently developing its own sector-specific climate strategy, which this document will inform
Source: CDC website, publications and interviews
                                                                                                                                                                             6
Recommendations to CDC for its Climate Strategy approach with Financial Institutions - INSEAD recommendations to CDC's FI team Celine Dumas, Cesar ...
We are grateful to the individuals and CDC
teams that provided their insights on this topic

         Financial Institutions               Enika Jorgoni & Wasim Tahir

             Climate Team                     Dr. Amal-Lee Amin & Nicola Mustetea

 Intermediated Climate Initiative Team        Salma Moolji, Alex Goodenough

    Environment & Sustainability              Mark Eckstein

  This report has been developed in discussions with CDC, but might differ from CDC’s views and has not
                                         been endorsed by CDC
                                                                                                          7
Recommendations to CDC for its Climate Strategy approach with Financial Institutions - INSEAD recommendations to CDC's FI team Celine Dumas, Cesar ...
CLIMATE FINANCE SPACE
Recommendations to CDC for its Climate Strategy approach with Financial Institutions - INSEAD recommendations to CDC's FI team Celine Dumas, Cesar ...
Climate change is a worldwide risk that generally impacts
          emerging countries more than developed countries
     Map of climate risks, reflecting countries’ vulnerabilities to climate change            Most impacted countries

                                                                                              Bangladesh:
                                                                                              • Sea level rise, flooding and cyclones
                                                                                                causing migration and displacement
                                                                                              Pakistan:
                                                                                              • Volumetric flow rate of rivers affecting
                                                                                                farmers
                                                                                              Myanmar:
                                                                                              • Droughts are causing diminished water
                                                                                                sources and destroying agricultural yields
                                                                                              Zimbabwe:
                                                                                              • Water supply, food security, vector borne
                                                                                                diseases and malnutrition
                                                                                              Mozambique:
                                                                                              • Sea level rise, frequent flooding, stronger
                                                                                                cyclones, climate driven vector
                                                                                                borne diseases and malnutrition
                                                                                              Madagascar:
                                                       Global Climate Risk Index 1998 –2017
                                                                                              • Sea level rise, stronger cyclones and
                                                                                                further droughts, which will have a
                                                                                                dramatic impact on food security and
                                                                                                infrastructure
Source: GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX, German Watch 2019                                                                                          9
Recommendations to CDC for its Climate Strategy approach with Financial Institutions - INSEAD recommendations to CDC's FI team Celine Dumas, Cesar ...
Climate risks can have a material impact on both the
            real economy and the financial system
      Propagation of climate-related risks to financial performance in the real economy     Key highlights

                                                                                            Climate change can cause:
                                                                                            •   Acute hazards: i.e. event-driven
                                                                                                hazards, including more frequent and
                                                                                                intense extreme events such as cyclones
                                                                                                or heatwaves

                                                                                            •   Chronic hazards: i.e. long-term change
                                                                                                in the mean and variability of climate
                                                                                                patterns such as mean temperatures

                                                                                            •   Those risks affect financial
                                                                                                institutions when their counterparties
                                                                                                suffer climate change impact and are
                                                                                                unable to pay back loans, provide
                                                                                                dividends or impact their valuation

                                                                                            •   It can translates into credit risks (e.g.
                                                                                                reduced counterparty creditworthiness),
                                                                                                market risks (e.g. change in equity
                                                                                                price), and finally liquidity risks (e.g.
                                                                                                abrupt repricing of physical climate risks)
               >> See Appendix 1.1 for more details on how climate impact infrastructure,
               TMT & Energy sectors

Source: Getting-started-on-physical-climate-risk-analysis, I4CE & ClimINVEST, 2017                                                            10
The overall finance industry is moving towards ESG and
          institutional investors towards “green” impact investing
    Climate trends with evidence ESG investing enhances performance                                                                       Key trends in FI

   Total AUM dedicated to ESG PE funds                                                                                                    • 2019: AUM of $2.4 trillion pledged carbon
                                                                                                 • Growing appreciation by the
                                                                                                   finance industry of the impact that      neutrality by 2050
                                                                                                   green investments factors can
                                                                                                   have on value creation, long-term      • PE/VC AUM up from $8 bn in 2010 to $28
                                                                                                   company performance, and the             bn in 2019
                                                                                                   health of society at large
                                                                                                                                          • Banking and financial sectors are taking
                                                                                                 • Green finance is having
                                                                                                                                            a developmental approach to
                                                                                                   a significant social impact in
                                                                                                                                            prioritise economic opportunities emerging
                                                                                                   emerging markets through
                                                                                                   targeted investments and                 under ESG financing
                                                                                                   improved management resulting in
                                                                                                   lower prices for essential goods       • Following development of the TCFD,
                                                                                                   and services                             more banks reporting climate risk
                                                                                                                                            exposure but few have started disclosing
                                                                                                                                            the carbon footprint from their portfolios
    CASE STUDY 1                                        CASE STUDY 2                             CASE STUDY 3
                                                                                                                                          • Most banks’ climate risk management is at
    PE firm Terra Firma Capital Partners                Co-funding opportunity between           KKR partnered with the
                                                                                                 Environmental Defence Fund                 an early stage, but few have dedicated
    demerged the non-core division,                     Partners Group and Quadriga Capital
    Infinis, from Waste Recycling Group                 to AHT resulting in Cooling tech that    to developed its Green Portfolio           climate risk committees
    to create the UK’s largest                          is significantly more energy efficient   Program used as an “environmental
    independent renewable energy                        than competing technologies              lens” to assess business activities of   • Visibility remains limited of potential
    generator. Infinis had its IPO in 2013                                                       KKR’s participating private equity         impact of climate change-related risks on
                                                                                                 portfolio companies                        banks’ financial performance

Source: Global Private Equity Report 2020, Bain & Co.                                                                                                                                    11
By providing adapted financing solutions, FIs can
                  promote sustainable development
       What is sustainable Finance                                                                                  Funded by both debt and equity

     Financing that is focused on maximizing both social & financial                                                 Financing in the form of credit lines and direct investment
     returns, or prioritizing impact over financial returns                                                          supporting targeted area
                                                         •    Climate change mitigation                               Debt
                                   Environmental         •    Climate change adoption
                                                         •    Other environmental
                                                                                                                         Green                                       Green                   Green
                                                                                                                                               Green
                                                                                                                        corporate                                   sovereign                project      Green loan
                                                      Other                                                                                  securitisat.
                                                                                                                          bond                                        bond                    bond
                                                  environmental

                                                                                                                      Debt / Equity
         Sustainable Development

                                                                                                            Green
                                                 Climate change
                                                    adoption                                                                                   Green                  Green                 Green
                                                                                                                                              perpetual

                                                                                   “Low carbon”
                                                                                                                       Green sukuk                                  convertible            mezzanine
                                                                                                                                                bond                  bond                   bond

                                                                                                  Climate
                                                 Climate change
                                                    mitigation
                                                                                                                      Equity
                                                                                                                        Private
                                                         •    Gender equality                                                                  Private                Joint                Instrument
                                      Social                                                                             Public
                                                                                                                                               Equity                Venture                  Trust
                                                                                                                        Partner.

                                                         •    Impact investment
                                     Economic
                                                         •    Microfinance                                              Credit Enhancement
                                                         •    Transparency programmes                                                       A/B loans               First loss             Viability
                                   Governance                                                                         Guarantees
                                                                                                                                             or grant                 piece              gap funding

Source: Dimensions of sustainability in financial decision-making. Source: UNEP (2016).                                 Source: ASEAN green Financial instruments Guide (Climate bond initiatives 2019)           12
Financial Institutions looking to advance their climate
           missions should focus on some key end-industries                                                                    I L L U S T R AT I V E
     Climate-positive/ least at risk industries                           Most affected industries

           • Renewable energy                                                  • Traditional Energy (Oil, Gas, Coal, Utilities)

           • Automakers producing hybrid/ electric cars                        • Infrastructure and buildings

           • Clean Tech or Energy/ Water efficient co.s                        • Agriculture and forestry

           • Apparel (if adapting to customer preferences)                     • Insurance

           • Consumer goods (if adapting)                                      • Tourism

           • Innovative solutions (e.g. new building                           • Food & Beverages
             materials and eco-friendly construction)
                                                                               • Construction (incl. input materials)

                                                                               • Transportation (incl. Air, Maritime, Rail, etc.)

Source: TCFD, 2018; European Commission, 2020
                                                             >> See Appendix 2.11 to know more about the key industries impacted by climate in SEA
                                                                                                                                                        13
More specifically, FIs must adapt to mitigate climate
          risks and support economies in their green transitions
                                Physical Risks                                                                  FI                  Risks                                                      Opportunities
                                                                                                                Banking             • Direct losses due to exposure to at-                     • Strengthen the market for small energy
                                                                                                                                      risk industries (through drought,                          providers
                                                                                                                                      precipitation, soil erosion, flood, …)                   • Set up of carbon fund and fund custody
                                                                                                                                    • Additional costs due to changes in                       • Microfinance for climate-friendly
                                                                                                                                      weather patterns                                           activities
                                                                                                                                    • Regulatory risk

                                                                                                                Insurance           • Exposure to at-risk industries                           • Develop creative coverage solutions that
                                                                                                                                    • Increased cost due to claims following                     will reduce losses for end-users in event
                                                                                                                                      climate-related events                                     of loss/ damage
                                                                                                                                    • Need for increased expertise &                           • Risk differentials can be priced
                                                                                                                                      capabilities for risk pricing                            • Carbon becomes an insurable risk
                                                                                                                                    • Lack of capital/reinsurance

                                                                                                                Asset               • Market risk, due to exposure to at-risk                  • Resource efficiency creates value for all
      Green investment / transition opportunities                                                               Manager               industries                                                 stakeholders
                                                                                                                                    • Increased volatility on returns                          • Harmonization of climate assets among
   ASEAN green investments opportunities 2016 – 2030: $3tn                                                                          • Need for increased expertise and                           different systems
                                                                                                                                      capabilities across the organization                     • Develop an authentic and credible
                                                                                                                                                                                                 investment approach

                                                                                                                FinTech             • Price volatility on carbon markets and                   • New products and services
                                                                                                                                      carbon-related products                                  • New market standard
                                                                                                                                    • Direct losses due to exposure to at-                     • Barriers of entry against conventional
                                                                                                                                      risk industries (through drought,                          brick and mortar competitors
                                                                                                                                      precipitation, soil erosion, flood, …)
                                                                                                                                    • Higher customer expectations

Source: Climate change risk and response (Mckinsey report 2020), Green Finance opportunities in ASEAN (DBS report, 2017), “Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures”                   14
The taxonomy of climate change investing frameworks,
evaluation and reporting systems is maturing                                                                             NOT      EXHAUSTIVE

                           Authority                     Description                                                                Users

     Principles for                                      • International network of investors working together to put               Asset owners,
                                                           six targeted principles of ESG investing into practice                   investment managers
      Responsible          United Nations
                                                                                                                                    & institutional
         Investing                                       • Based on fundamentals of ESG integration                                 investors

                                                         • Voluntary climate-related financial risk disclosures for use
     Taskforce for                                         by companies in providing information to investors,
          Carbon           Financial Stability             lenders, insurers, and other stakeholders                                Companies, banks,
                           Board                                                                                                    investors
       Disclosure                                        • Wholistic consideration of physical, liability and transition
                                                           risks associated with climate change

      Morningstar                                        • Sustainability Rating used to help investors understand the              Investors in public
     Globe Ratings         Morningstar                     vulnerability of their investment portfolios to                          markets, unit trusts,
                                                           environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors                      ETFs

         European                                        • Classification system for sustainable activities and a
                                                           framework to facilitate sustainable investment. Provides                 Governments
        Taxonomy           European Union
                                                           screening criteria for activities that can make a substantial            investors, companies
                                                           contribution to climate change mitigation or adaptation

                                                         • Standardised set of verification criteria for green bonds
    Climate Bonds          Climate Bonds
         Standard                                        • Tool allowing investors and intermediaries to assess the                 Banks, lenders
                           Initiative
                                                           environmental integrity of bonds

               >> See Appendix 1.2 for more details on the regulations status in ASEAN & Appendix 1.3 on the maturity of green Finance in ASEAN             15
Many of CDC’s peers have taken decisive action,
           consistent with their own sustainability goals
             Peer                             Approach                                                         Investment Examples
                                              •    Invest directly in climate-smart sectors, developing new    •   Standard Bank of South Africa’s Green Bond
                                                   de-risking and aggregation mechanisms                           Issuance (US$200M)
                                              •    Engaging public and private sector stakeholders through     •   Scale up sustainable energy investments,
                                                   international forums and working groups                         particularly for SMEs in Ukraine (up to US$50M)
                                              •    US$ 5.8B in combined mobilization and investment for
                                                   the IFC climate business in FY19
                                              •    Climate Investor One ($850M) is a fund with an              •   Cleantech Solar (rooftop solar panels in Asia)
                                                   emerging markets renewable energy mandate                   •   Africa Hydro Holdings (hydro platform in Uganda)
                                              •    It is a ‘blended finance’ investment vehicle focused on     •   Acumen Resilient Agriculture Fund (ARAF)
                                                   providing capital to climate mitigation and adaptation
                                                   sectors in developing countries.
                                              •    Climate Fund Managers (CFM) are dedicated to these
                                                   investments
                                              •    ADB is facilitating greater flows of climate finance into   •   ADB Green Bonds (US$ 700M since 2018)
                                                   the Pacific region, with energy and transport as the        •   Pacific Funds (~US$ 500M for climate and
                                                   leading two sectors                                             disaster relief in the Pacific Islands, focusing on
                                              •    At least 75% of the number of ADB’s committed green             adaptation and mitigation
                                                   bond operations will be supporting climate change
                                                   mitigation and adaptation by 2030
                                              •    From 2011 to 2019 ADB approved over $36 billion in
                                                   climate financing
Source: IFC Press Releases. FMO Press Releases, ADB Press Releases                                                                                                       16
APPROACH
The FI Team should (continue to) work with three
          stakeholder groups to pursue its climate mission
                  Co-investors and Peers                            New Target Companies                Current Portfolio Companies
             •     Private Equity Firms with dedicated          •   NBFIs                               •   Portfolio FIs with scope to reduce the
                   impact investing funds, including Apollo,          •   MFIs                              environmental impact, e.g., via
                   Bain Capital, Blackstone, Carlyle, KKR,            •   Housing                             •   Identification and tracking of climate
                   TPG                                                •   Leasing                                 KPIs to manage exposure to at-risk
                                                                                                                  industries and increase opportunities
             •     State Pension Funds with large PE            •   Commercial Banks (lower priority)         •   Reducing the carbon footprint or
                   allocations, including CalPERS,                                                                offsetting carbon from day-to-day
                   CalSTERS, New York State Pension             •   FinTechs                                      operations
                   Fund, Washington State Investment                  •   Payments
                   Board, CPPIB, PSP, OTTP, OMERS                     •   Alternative Lending           •   Portfolio FIs with the capabilities to
                                                                      •   Bank Infrastructure               support firms looking to prevent climate
             •     Sovereign Wealth Funds including GIC,                                                    change or increase resilience against the
                   Tamasek, ADIA                                •   Insurance Companies                     impacts of climate change, e.g., through
                                                                      •   Life/ Non-life/ Composite           •   Investing in renewables
             •     Development Finance Institutions                   •   Reinsurers                          •   Raising awareness of climate
                   (DFIs), including ADB, AfDB, DEG,                  •   Parametric & Insuretech                 change related topics
                   EBRD, EIB, FMO, IFC, Proparco                                                              •   Enabling local communities to protect
                                                                •   Others                                        themselves against the adverse
                                                                      •   Asset Managers                          impacts of climate change, such as
                                      >> See Appendix 3.1 for
                                                                      •   Credit Bureaus                          flooding and droughts
                                      acronym definitions
                                                                      •   Exchanges

                       How CDC should collaborate with each of these groups will be detailed in the following slides…

Source: Press search                                                                                                                                       18
The FI Team should use 3 I’s in pursuing their climate
strategy: Invest, Influence and Involve
                          INVEST                                                        INFLUENCE

                         … in New Target Companies                                        … Current Portfolio Companies

•   Invest in Financial Institutions with demonstrated           •    Encourage portfolio companies to become more
      • Impact: Product or service offering have the                  climate conscious in three ways:
         potential to support the most vulnerable populations           • Educate on regulations and policies, climate trends
      • Sensitivity: Measures in place to mitigate their                   and carbon tracking methodologies
         portfolio climate risks                                        • Advise on risk assessment and new financial
      • Capabilities: Able to raise the profile of                         products
         sustainability in their organisations                          • Connect with other organisations

                                                            INVOLVE
                                                                 •    Collaborate, co-invest, share resources and co-
                                                                      develop training materials with other DFIs
                          … Co-investors and Peers               •    Jointly invest with PE firms, SPFs and SWFs
                                                                 •    Partner with FIs outside of CDC’s portfolio
                                                                 •    Connect portfolio companies with solutions providers

                                                                                                                                19
Deep Dive: How the 3 I’s map to the standard PE
process
Standard PE fund operations
                                                                                                               Ongoing
    Deal Generation                Due diligence                    First 100 days                                                                        Exit
                                                                                                              ownership

                       A - INVEST                                                                        B - INFLUENCE
                                                Climate mastery            Climate maturity                                        Final Climate impact
                         Targets list                score               personalized program                                          assessment

                                        Run                  Develop
                                        climate-             specific
                                                                                                 Implement action plan & track                          Handover
                                        impact               Climate-
                                                                                                 progress                                               plan
                                        due                  influence
                                        diligence            program

                                                         Target allocation vs. ideal state                                    Personalized program
                                                                                                                          •    Targets definition
                                                                                                        Ideal FI state
                                                                                                                          •    Roadmap
                                                            Non-                                                          •    Action plan
                                                           Mature
                                                                      Initial state   Target                              •    Governance structure
                                                                                      maturity                            •    Team mobilization plan

                                                             C - INVOLVE                                             Risk analytics providers
                       Co-investors
      Financers                                                                            Enablers                  Technical Assistance
                       Peers
                                                                                                                     Policy makers…
                                                                                                                                                                   20
INVEST                                INFLUENCE

… in New Target Companies             … Current Portfolio Companies

                            INVOLVE

… Co-investors and Peers

                                                                      21
Invest: FI targets are evaluated along three categories in
             DD phase to identify the appropriate engagement type
      Categories of evaluation at due diligence                                                                                                                                           Engagement type
                   Impact                                                     Sensitivity                                              Capabilities
           Capturing opportunities                                           Mitigating risks                                      Promoting stewardship                                   Climate           Engagement
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Description
     Evaluation of product offering &                               Evaluation of portfolio risk                                 Evaluation of target’s                                    score             type
          financial advisory and                                       exposure, carbon                                        operations, incl. carbon
     investment portfolio to support                                emissions tracking*, and                                  emissions tracking for target
      transition & resilience of most                                    TCFD reporting                                             and willingness                                                                            Boost existing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Invest
         vulnerable populations                                                                                                                                                                >30                              actions with
                                                                                                                                                                                                                and scale
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  capital
                 Up to 20 points                                            Up to 20 points                                            Up to 12 points

                                                        Combined climate score: up to X points                                                                                                                               Provide capital for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             growth & technical
      Evaluation approach                                                                                                                                                                                       Invest and
                                                                                                                                                                                              0-30                                support for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 influence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               development of
                   Data Inputs                                             Evaluation along                                                Definition of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              climate approach
                                                                           detailed criteria                                             engagement type
                                                                                                                                               Invest and
               Product offering &                                                                                                                 scale
Invest: Detailed criteria have been defined to assign a
climate score to each potential target

                                          Example on next slide - see
                                          backup for detailed criteria
                                             >> See Appendix 2.1 to 2.5 for more details

                                                                                           23
Invest: Example criteria include product offering and
              financial advisory (demand)                                                                                                                                                                              EXAMPLE
                                      Paris                     Detailed
       Category                       alignment                 criteria                           Mature: 4                   Advanced: 3                Emerging: 2                 Idle: 1                    No go: -1
       Impact:                        Just transition /         • Demand:                          -    Current product        -   Majority of current    -   Presence of             -   No products            N/A
                                      Adaptation &                Product offering                      offering focused           products focused           climate friendly            relating to climate
       capturing                      resilience                  focused on                            only climate               on green investing         investment                  friendly investing
       opportunities                                              climate friendly                      friendly investing     -   Climate friendly           products in current     -   No mention of
                                                                  investing                        -    Clear strategic            investing                  portfolio                   climate friendly
                                                                                                        positioning as             highlighted in         -   Climate                     investing in
                                                                                                        green investment           strategic vision           friendly investing          company strategy
                                                                                                        vehicle                -   Majority of future         mentioned in            -   No roadmap for
                                                                                                   -    Future products            products expected          strategy docs, not          climate
                                                                                                        expected to be             to relate to green         part of vision              friendly investment
                                                                                                        focused only on            investing (e.g.        -   Some products               products
                                                                                                        green investing            green bonds)               expected to relate
                                                                                                        (e.g. green bonds)                                    to green investing
                                                                • Demand:                          -    Current financial      -   Financial advice on    -   Financial advice on     -   Financial advice       N/A
                                                                  Financial                             advisory                   investments in             investments in              does not cover
                                                                  advisory provided                     proactively                climate friendly and       climate friendly and        investments in
                                                                  to clients with                       suggests advice on         resilient sectors/         resilient sectors/          climate friendly and
                                                                  focus on climate                      investments in             enterprises is             enterprises can be          resilient sectors/
                                                                  friendly investing                    climate friendly and       offered on demand          referred to on              enterprises
                                                                  and resilient                         resilient sectors/     -   Climate friendly           demand
                                                                  sectors                               enterprises                and resilient          -   No concerted effort
                                                                                                   -    Climate friendly           strategies are             to align climate
                                                                                                        and resilient              mostly aligned with        friendly/ resilient
                                                                                                        investment                 required risk-             strategies with risk-
                                                                                                        strategies with            returns                    returns
                                                                                                        appropriate risk-
                                                                                                        return is offered

Note: Climate criteria will be applied in addition to current investment criteria (e.g. ticket size, etc.)
Source: TCFD, 2017; Deutsche Asset Management, 2017                                                                                                                                                                              24
Invest: Crop insurance in Africa protects
            the incomes of farmers                                                                                                                           I L L U S T R AT I V E
   CASE             STUDY

               Business model                                                                                     Markets served

                                          RiskAssist Platform                                          Farmer 1
                                                                               Multi-                                                                            Current operations
             Type

                    Large (re-)                                                                        Farmer 2
                                                                              national                                                                           (Ghana, Kenya, Uganda)
                     insurer                Local                                                      Farmer 3
                                                            Product             co.                                                                              Planned operations
                                           insurer
                                                                                                         etc.                                                    (India, Indonesia,
                                                                                                                                                                 Mexico, Brazil)
             Ex.

                                                                                                                                                                  May 2019

                     Direct customers          Product sold         Indirect beneficiaries/ partners

               Key competitors                                                                                    Climate score and funding
             Global Para-              Parametric natural disaster insurance                    Africa, Asia,
             metrics                   Capitalised disaster risk fund                           Latin America
                                                                                                                  • Series A funding round of $6M
                                                                                                                    – led by MS&AD ventures
             Arbol                     Weather risk trading platform                            US, Costa Rica1
                                                                                                                    – backed by Y Combinator, Western Technology Investment, and
             ACRE                      Weather insurance intermediary                           Africa
                                                                                                                      EchoVC
             Pula                      Microinsurance for crop and livestock                    Africa
                                                                                                                  • Climate score: 36 (illustrative) suggests any potential
             New Paradigm              Natural disaster parametric (re)insurance                US
                                                                                                                    investment in WorldCover should take an “invest and scale”
             Large insurers2 Large-scale parametric (re)insurance                               Global              approach
1) Costa Rica in partnership with Global Parametrics; 2) e.g. Swiss Re
Source: TechCrunch; WorldCover call; Global Parametrics call                                                                                                                              25
Invest: Intermediate loans by the EIB financed low-
          carbon public transport projects in Bulgaria
 CASE            STUDY

               European Investment                                                                      Raiffeisen Leasing                          Low-carbon Public
                   Bank (EIB)                                                                          (financial intermediary                      Transport Projects
                                                                                                       specialised in leasing)

                                                EUR 180 million intermediated                                              At least 70% of funds from the loan used to
                                               loan granted with a contractually                                          finance zero-carbon or low-carbon transport
                                                  defined “climate window” –                                                 modes, including municipal bike-sharing
                                              mandating that at least 70% of the                                          schemes, electric or hydrogen public buses,
                                                loan amount be invested in the                                          electric passenger cars and vans for commercial
                                              leasing of cleaner public transport.                                       use, and investments in railway infrastructure.

                                                                             EUR 126 million invested in climate mitigation

Source: World Bank, “Joint Report on Multilateral Development Banks’ Climate Finance” (2018), Market Screener                                                              26
INVEST                                INFLUENCE

… in New Target Companies             … Current Portfolio Companies

                            INVOLVE

… Co-investors and Peers

                                                                      27
Influence: Following the investment assessment, a
roadmap to climate readiness has been developed
Climate assessment   Influence: Climate readiness roadmap               Top performer

       Impact

                     Scale
                                       Invest & influence
      Sensitivity

                             Roadmap to climate readiness      Invest
                                                                  &
                                                                scale
     Capabilities

                                                                         Impact   Sensitivity   Capabilities

  Climate score                                             Readiness

                                                                                                               28
Influence: CDC can play a role in driving investees to
     be more climate-conscious, building on the TCFD
  Archetype of a climate-conscious Financial Institutions
  Each element of the structure is a potential area that CDC can attempt to influence                                                                             Roles that CDC can play
   Impact            Sensitivity     Capabilities
                                                                         Climate
                                                                  Strategy & Governance
                                          Define priorities and ambition for climate change, aligned with corporate strategy                                      1• EDUCATE on
                                                    Define clear organization governance around climate change                                                     •   Regulations & policies
                                                                                                                                                                   •   Climate trends (Circular economy,
                   Customer Value                           Climate                                 Targets &                        Team / Centre of
                    Proposition                        Risk Management                              Reporting                          Excellence                      climate…)
                                                                                                                                                                   •   Carbon tracking methodologies
            •    Provide dedicated                •   Understand climate-related         •    Define clear asset               •   Dedicated team of
                 financing solutions for              risks & opp., ensuring                  allocation targets for               specialists to guide product
                 climate change
                                                                                                                                                                  2• ADVISE on
                                                      transition and resilience of            sustainability / low-carbon          development, taxonomy,
 GO         •    Develop financial advisory           most vulnerable populations             investments                          policies and ensure
GREEN            to guide clients in selecting    •   Develop climate risk tool          •    Develop clear, intuitive             alignment of efforts with       •   Climate related risk assessment
                 appropriate financing tools                                                  reporting infrastructure to          corporate strategy
            •    Develop technical advisory
                                                      to identify, measure &
                                                                                              ensure impact of initiatives /                                       •   Innovative financial products for
                                                      assess sust.-related risk                                                •   Up-to-date information on
                 unit (or partner), knowledge-    •   Include climate scenario
                                                                                              investments                          key market trends,                  climate sustainability
                 able on climate change                                                  •    Measure carbon footprint             investments, innovation,
                                                      analysis in decision process
                 initiatives, to advise clients                                               across full portfolio                leveraging key partnerships
                                                  •   Proactively work with
            •    Develop investments to
                 increase resilience of most          policymakers towards                                                     •   Training courses and           3• CONNECT with
                 vulnerable populations               market frameworks                                                            industry playbooks
                                                                                                                                                                   •   Risk analytics providers
 BE                                                                                                                                                                •   Policymakers & regulatory bodies
                                                                     Sustainable Operations                                                                        •   Other climate FI
GREEN
        •       Procurement: redesign selection process towards climate              •       Energy: Monitor & reduce building energy consumption
                friendly suppliers                                                   •       Operations: Develop recycling initiatives on site
        •       Energy: re-balance your energy mix towards more RE
                                                                                                                                                                                                           29
Influence: CDC can support its investees in becoming
more climate friendly in several specific ways
                                            1                                          2                                       3
                                         EDUCATE                                     ADVISE                                 CONNECT
  Climate                                                                   • Help identify bus climate risk & opp.
                                  • Provide market research & best                                                    • Connect companies with other top-
                                                                            • Co-develop climate resilience
  Strategy &                        practices on governance structure
                                                                              scenario analysis
                                                                                                                        performer investees to share best
                                    on climate                                                                          practices
  Governance                                                                • Help def. business case & targets
                                  • Run continuous market research
                                                                            • Support the investee in developing a    • Share best practices from peers or
  Customer Value                  • Gather latest trends and case
                                                                              wider portfolio of instruments to         other company’s in CDC portfolio
  Proposition                       studies (both in the region and in
                                                                              support green projects
                                    mature countries like EU)
                                  • Develop pool of knowledge across        • Support detailed analysis of sus
  Climate Risk                      investees on sustainability risks         related risks                           • Connect with policy makers and
  Management                      • Share risk classification methods per   • Co-develop process and tools to           regulatory bodies
                                    sector                                    manage identified risks
                                  • Share latest documentation on           • Support development of GHG              • Connect with ESG analytics
  Targets &                         sustainability KPIs (carbon foot-         emission calculation process              provider
  Reporting                         printing , brown/green metrics)         • Help disclose and build green           • Connect with Risk analysis
                                  • Educate on TCFD                           dashboard                                 software

                                  • Provide training on climate related     • Advise on potential incentives
  Team / Centre of
                                    topics (circular economy, bio             structure to push employee sell         • -
  Excellence                        forestry, climate, etc…)                  green products

                                  • Share best practices on how             • Provide High level guideline on         • Connect with best in class FI
  Sustainable
                                    reducing FI’s own footprint and           responsible procurement &               • Connect with green provider that
  Operations                        become net 0                              operations strategy                       could support bank operations

       CDC impact / implication                                                                                                                              30
Influence: CDC can play a range of different roles to
boost its investees’ climate maturity

                                         See Appendix for details
                                            >> See Appendix 2.6 to 2.10 for more details

                                                                                           31
Influence: Existing examples show how different types
            of FI can implement best practices                                                                                                                                               I L L U S T R AT I V E
                                              Banks/ Asset Mgrs                                   Insurance                                           MFIs & Fintech                      Funds (e.g. PE)

                   New                        • Offer dedicated green                             • Corporate insurance to                            • Loans targeted at                 • Investment in green
                                                products, e.g. issuance                             promote growth of                                   increased resilience in             projects and climate
              offerings                         of green bonds                                      climate positive sectors                            vulnerable sectors (e.g.            positive sectors
              following                                                                           • Insurance against                                   loans for water pumps,            • Promotion of climate
                                              • Provide loans to green                                                                                  improved harvest
              influence                         investments, e.g.                                   climate shocks                                                                          positive actions among
                                                                                                                                                        storage)
                                                renewable infrastructure                                                                                                                    portfolio companies
                                                                                                  • Issue/ cover catastrophe
                                                projects                                                                                              • Loans to build up
                                                                                                    bonds and insurance-
                                                                                                                                                        businesses in resilient
                                                                                                    linked securities
                                              • Develop of green                                                                                        sectors (e.g. solar tools)
                                                securitization

             Examples                         • DBS (SGP) issued a                                • WorldCover and Global                             • Grameen Shakti offers             • PAI Partners includes a
                                                $500m 5-y green bond to                             Parametric’s insurances to                          small financial packages            preliminary climate risk
                                                be allocated to green                               counter loss from weather/                          to install solar home               analysis at the due
                                                building, transport, RE…                            natural disasters                                   systems/ biogas plants              diligence phase
                                                                                                  • SwissRe issuance of                               • Finca Uganda provides
                                              • $58M green loan to
                                                                                                    $350M insurance-linked                              a dedicated Solar Loan,           • Ardian assess exposure
                                                finance solar panel in
                                                                                                    securities (US storm risk)                          a credit facility intended          of its Expansion portfolio
                                                Malaysia
                                                                                                                                                        to give customers access            to climate-related
                                                                                                  • The V20’s Sustainable
                                                                                                                                                        to renewable energy                 physical and
                                              • NMB Bank in Nepal                                   Insurance Facility to                                                                   transitional risks
                                                financing Hydro Power                               protect MSMEs in                                  • M-Kopa facilitating pay-
                                                Projects                                            vulnerable economies                                as-you-go access to
                                                                                                                                                        solar energy
MFIs = Microfinance Institutions; PE = Private Equity; (M)SMEs = (micro,) small & medium sized enterprises; V20 = Vulnerable 20, a group of economies most vulnerable to climate change
Note: Actions on sensitivity (mitigation of climate risks) and capabilities are excluded from this assessment
Source: Artemis, 2020; United Nations Environment Programme and DBS, 2017, Climate Bonds Initiative, January 2019, v-20.org, 2019                                                                                        32
Influence: Access, an African bank with few climate-
          related projects, could be an influence target for CDC
 CASE            STUDY
                                                     Defined                                                                Few initiatives        •   Core focus on Social & financial
                                                     sustainability                                                         on climate &               inclusion, Community
                                                     strategy                                                               green financing            investment
                                                     approach
                                                                                                                                                   •   Only few cases studies to date
                                                                                                                                                       (Solar panel ATM, Waste
                                                                                                                                                       recycling project)

                                                     Defined                                                                No risk
                                                     performance &                                                          assessment on          •   No reference in their
                                                     reporting                                                              climate risks              sustainability report about risk
                                                     process                                                                                           management
   •     Operates in 7 African                                                                                                                     •   No reference to TCFD or any
         countries, the UK,                                                                                                                            other risk disclosure framework
         China, UAE
   •     A top 5 player in the
         Nigerian Banking                            Drive green                       311                                  Trained experts
         Industry                                    operations                        Access Bank branches powered by      on ESG
   •     Aspire to be the                                                              hybrid energy                                               •   Board member aware and
                                                                                                                                                       sensitive to climate-related risk
         World’s Most
         Respected African                                                             92.64%                                                      •   Training program on (E)SG
         Bank                                                                          Reduction in landfill waste due to
                                                                                       the bank’s recycling initiative

Source: EOSD, Embedding Sustainability in Bank - Access Bank Case (Access July 2016)                                            Access’ maturity                                           33
INVEST                                INFLUENCE

… in New Target Companies             … Current Portfolio Companies

                            INVOLVE

… Co-investors and Peers

                                                                      34
Involve: CDC should work with co-investors and peers
in targeted ways to increase its efficacy in sustainability
  Type of stakeholder                                       Mode of Collaboration

                                                           •     Collaborate (and co-invest) to raise awareness of investment opportunities in FI that can
                                                                 advance progress towards the sustainability goals of CDC and peer organisations
                                                           •     Share resources, best-practices and learnings from field work on how organisations can
      Development Finance
                                                                 effectively become more climate-conscious
          Institutions
                                                           •     Co-develop training materials and jointly run workshops for portfolio companies on how to
                                                                 reduce their climate impact, increase their resilience against climate risks and generally become
                                                                 more climate-conscious (see slide 32)

    Funds, incl. PE, VC*,                                  •     Jointly identify and invest in companies that (i) have the potential to reduce their own climate
  State Pension, Sovereign                                       impact (e.g., via rationalising branch networks); (ii) invest in or support firms that reduce climate
  Wealth, and climate and                                        impact more broadly (e.g., renewables); (iii) protect the vulnerable by increasing resilience
     innovation** funds                                          against climate risks (e.g., flood protection)

  Grant-making institutions                                •     Co-invest in blended finance approach to leverage grant-making institutions’ technical
                                                                 assistance capabilities and support shift in FIs’ behaviours
                                                           •     Partner to increase the resilience of portfolio companies and ensure that investment (from
       FIs outside of CDC’s
                                                                 portfolio FIs to firms in the climate impact sphere) continues to be provided even amidst a crisis.
             portfolio
                                                                 E.g., ensuring portfolio MFIs continue to lend even when shocks (such as natural disasters) hit

     Solutions Providers                                   •     Connect solutions providers with local banks and insurers to increase their ability to predict,
  (e.g., Global Parametrics)                                     monitor, and develop resilience against climate risk in emerging markets
*e.g. Omnivore Partners India Fund; **e.g. the Blue Orchard Insuresilience Fund, WaterEquity Global Acccess, and the Acument Resilient Agricuture Fund
                                                                                                                                                                         35
Involve: CDC can partner with risk-analysis providers to
          improve their due diligence and increase their influence
                                           Target Use                         Description of business model                                                        Granularity          Target users

                                           RISK SCORE                         • Two main services: Advisory & Analytics                                                                 Project officers
                                                                                                                                                                   Per project, and
                                           Pre-screening before               • Analytics: provide risk analysis tool to analyse physical risk exposure &                               and risk
                                                                                                                                                                   per hazard
                                           financing                            provide climate risk scores (per project)                                                               managers

                                           FINANCIAL                          • Product: The Sequel – Research on climate scenario modelling and their
                                           ESTIMATE                             financial impact on returns (per industry & asset class)                           Per hazard, asset
                                                                                                                                                                                        All Financial
                                                                                                                                                                   class, sector, and
                                           Scenario analysis &                • Provide advisory services to help FI analyse annual return impact of climate on                         institutions
                                                                                                                                                                   per scenario
                                           measure of impact                    their portfolio

                                                                              • Provide on-demand risk analytics to support our clients’ investment strategies
                                           RISK SCORE                                                                                                              Per element of
                                                                                and climate risk disclosures (per hazard / per assets)                                                  All Financial
                                           Analysis of physical                                                                                                    value chain, and
                                                                              • Provide climate risk scores for a wide range of listed instruments in equities                          institutions
                                           risks                                                                                                                   hazard
                                                                                and fixed income markets

                                                                              • The tool provides insights into the potential stressed market valuation of
                                           RISK SCORE                           investment portfolios and downside risks, translating climate-related costs into   Per sector,
                                                                                potential valuation impacts                                                        geography,           All Financial
                                           Climate value at Risk                                                                                                   portfolio and per    institutions
                                           (VaR)                              • The tool covers more than 10,000 companies, assessing all their associated         hazard
                                                                                equities and corporate bonds within the analysis.

                                                                              • Examine companies involvement in carbon solutions (RE, green infra etc.),
                                           RISK SCORE                                                                                                              Per portfolio, per   All Financial
                                                                                companies emissions (scope 1 & 2), companies policies (e.g. exclusion
                                                                                                                                                                   hazard, per          institutions &
                                           Carbon risk ratings                  policies), assess carbon asset risks & quantify companies’ exposure and
                                                                                                                                                                   sector               business
                                                                                management of material carbon issues

Source: Getting-started-on-physical-climate-risk-analysis, I4CE & ClimINVEST Dec 2018 / Provider website                                                                                                   36
Involve: Multilateral Development Banks have already
          formed partnerships to maximize their collective impact

            Nine Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) agreed, at the
            UN Secretary-General’s Climate Action Summit in New York
            in 2019, to jointly raise their climate finance contributions to:
                                                                                                                                                USD 175 billion
                                                                                                                                                by 2025

Source: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, “MDBs pledge to join forces to raise annual climate finance to $175bn by 2025” (September 2019)         37
Involve: CDC could collaborate with Global Parametrics
          in five different ways
 CASE            STUDY

                                               Global Parametrics (GP) was established in July 2016 with a social mandate backed by DFID and the
                                               InsuResilience Investment Fund (IIF), an initiative of KfW of the German Government. GP aims provides
                                               clients with tailored risk transfer products to better manage climate and natural disaster risks. It’s market-
                                               ready products enable clients to more accurately predict the adverse impacts of earthquakes, tropical
                                               cyclones, extreme rainfall, crop loss and drought. It’s bespoke products cover floods, atmospheric hazards,
                                               wildfires and energy shortfalls. GP’s Natural Disaster Fund has capacity of ~USD 110 million.

       FIVE ways that CDC could collaborate with GP

            1       GP Direct Offering to CDC’s Clients: GP offers protection to CDC’s portfolio companies, helping them to acquire emergency
                    cash in case of a climate/ natural disaster; portfolio companies that purchase this product could receive favourable credit terms.
            2       GP Direct Offering + CDC Contingent Loan: In addition to the offering above, CDC could provide contingent credit on the
                    same terms as CDC’s protection, providing additional liquidity to portfolio companies, enabling a more robust disaster response.
            3       CDC “Climate Risk Guarantee” Product: CDC could act as an intermediary, providing portfolio companies with a guarantee
                    product triggered from a tailored index provided by GP.
            4       CDC Bundled Loan Product: CDC could bundle traditional debt offerings with GP’s protection against climate/ natural
                    disasters (paid for via a premium on loan interest).
            5       CDC Climate Resilience Facility: CDC could create a facility providing guarantees and/or contingent loans based on GP’s
                    product to portfolio companies, diversifying the risk and reducing the expected cost associated with providing each guarantee.

Source: Global Parametrics documents and team call with Global Parametrics on 17th April 2020                                                                   38
RECOMMENDATIONS
Once FI’s climate strategy is further defined, we suggest
    deployment in three phases over the next two years
                         H2                                       H1                                      H2                                        H1                                         H2
                         2020                                     2021                                    2021                                      2022                                      2022

               A- STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION PLAN                                                       B- PILOT STRATEGY                                               C- SCALE
             Define investing strategy &        Refine climate due diligence            Develop          Dry-run overall climate
             criteria by sub-sector & key       detailed criteria & investee maturity   influence                                    Adapt                 Train FI team on the approach &
                                                                                                         maturity assessment
             markets with possible              classification approach                                                              assessment            integrate climate DD in current DD
  Invest     pipeline
                                                                                        program for      approach with list of
                                                                                                                                     approach              process
                                                                                        selected pilot   identified prospects
                                              Select prospects for pilot
                                       High level                                Prospects                                                  Climate DD
                                    criteria defined                             selection                                                approach ready

             Collect & process data on        Create std         High level
                                                                                                                                     Adapt booster
             climate risks in Asia & Africa,  “climate booster” assessment of        Dry-run tailored influence program on                                 Scale booster program to the rest
                                                                                                                                     program
Influence    climate risk assessment          program / path for current portfolio   selected pilots                                                       of the portfolio & new investees
                                                                                                                                     &path
             methods, leveraging TCFD         investees
                                   Climate finance &             Select pilots
                                                                             Investee pilot                                                   Booster
                                   technical booklet                              selection                                                program ready

             Identify 10-20 peer DFIs and       For the identified organisations,
                                                                                        Test out new partnership model by co-        Refine                Create joint sustainability goals
             PE funds with a consistent         reach out and assess willingness to
                                                                                        designing a training programme with          expectations          with all target partner organisations in
             mission on mitigating climate      collaborate and co-invest with CDC
 Involve     impact to CDC; conduct due         and resources that could be
                                                                                        another DFI and jointly investing with an    for future            order to set expectations and prove
                                                                                        impact investing PE fund                     partnerships          accountability going forward
             diligence                          deployed / shared                                                                          Collaboration
                                    Longlist created                         Shortlist created                                            cadence refined

                                                 Assess            Prepare TCFD reports
  CDC FI     Define CDC FI targets & priority    investees’                                                                                                  Follow up & track overall CDC
             guidance                            portfolio CO2                                                                                               impact on climate resilience
Transform.                                       footprint                              Develop KPIs to track portfolio climate impact & maturity

                                                                                                                                                                                                      40
Each phase will combine a broad range of activities to
                                  build and embed the FI Team’s new climate strategy
                                  Phase          Roadmap section   Activity description                                                                                   Workshops

                                                                   •   Meet with best in class FI that accounts climate risk in their operations to define overall        •   Learning Expeditions LEX with
                                                                       assessment framework & macro categories                                                                ING, DBS,
A- STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

                                  A1 - INVEST                      •   Detail further categories criteria & develop assessment questionnaire                              •   WS to agree on HL assessment
                                                                   •   Gather a list of future prospects, analyze quickly their climate sensitivity, impact & readiness       category
                                                                       and prioritize prospects for Pilot                                                                 •   WS to validate detailed criteria

                                                                   •   Collect more detailed data on TCFD to be able to train future investee in using it                 •   WS with TFCD
                                                                   •   Research & document the different types of climate risks in the target markets (Africa & Asia)     •   WS to validate influence program
                                  A2 -                             •   Collect data on existing green Finance instruments in the target regions                               / path
                                  INFLUENCE                        •   Develop training content on climate (technical & financial expertise)                              •   WS to select pilots
                                                                   •   Develop “standard” influence program / path
                                                                   •   Collect AS-IS green initiatives from current portfolio & select pilots

                                                                   •   Hold introductory meetings with DFIs, PE firms, SPFs and SWFs to better understand how they        •   Individual WS with stakeholders
                                                                       are approaching their sustainability goals                                                             on what sustainability and impact
                                                                   •   Where interests are aligned, determine willingness of stakeholders to collaborate and the              investing mean to them
                                  A3 - INVOLVE
                                                                       amount of resources (people, budget, technology) that they would be willing to devote to a
                                                                       partnership or joint-investment with CDC
                                                                   •   Create a short-list of organisations that are willing and able to collaborate with CDC
                                                                   •   Invest: dry-run assessment with future investee & document lesson learned
                                                                   •   Influence:
                                                                       • Develop specific influence program for selected pilot
                                  B - PILOT                            • Dry-run the program & document lesson learned
                                                                   •   Involve: begin to co-design training programmes and initiate joint investments
                                                                   •   CDC transformation: develop overall dashboard to track climate impact, sensitivity & readiness
                                                                       of on-going portfolio

                                                                   •   Invest & Influence: Train FI team to the new methods
                                  C- SCALE                         •   Involve: Create joint sustainability goals with all target partner organisations
                                                                   •   CDC transformation: Run target governance and reporting processes

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  41
Exceeding the 1.5°C target increase could adversely
          impact returns of some industries and asset classes
    Sequel - Financial estimate of annualized return impact due to climate change                                                    Key highlights
  The Sequel is intended to help investors understand how climate change can influence their investment performance
                                                                                                                                     • Physical damages risks could be
  in both the short and long term and what steps they should take to protect and position portfolio assets
                                                                                                                                       limited in a 2⁰C scenario while significant
                                                                                                                                       in a 4⁰C and 3⁰C scenarios

                                                                                                                                     • Transition opportunities emerge from a
                                                                                                                                       2⁰C scenario, with transition now expected
                                                                                                                                       to be a benefit from a macroeconomic
                                                                                                                                       perspective, including the potential to
                                                                                                                                       capture a “low-carbon transition (LCT)
                                                                                                                                       premium

                                                                                                                                     • Expected annual return impacts remain
                                                                                                                                       most visible at an industry-sector level,
                                                                                                                                       with significant variations by scenario,
                                                                                                                                       particularly for energy, utilities, consumer
                                                                                                                                       staples and telecoms

                                                                                                                                     • Asset class returns can also vary
                                                                                                                                       significantly by scenario, with
                                                                                                                                       infrastructure, property and equities being
                                                                                                                                       the most notable. Sustainability-driven
                                                                                                                                       equity will thrive & generate positive return
                                                                                                                                       on the long term

 *Effective absolute loss of value is expected to occur in 2041 under a scenario in which global warming is limited to 2°C by 2100
Source: Mercer, The Sequel 2019                                                                                                                                                        42
For example, a climate-related disaster - the 2011 Thai
          floods - significantly hurt financials in the hardware sector
     Hardware manufacturers affected by 2011 Thai floods                                 Financial impact is correlated to asset geographic concentration

      •   Annual precipitation in Asia is expected to increase by up to 50% over most land areas in the region, putting coastal & low-lying areas at an increased risk of flooding
      •   Bangkok is forecasted to be one of the top region impact by floods. 2011 floods were the worst the country had experienced in 50 years
      •   The total economic damages ensuing from the Thai floods, both locally and globally, were totaled at almost 44 billion $
      •   Thailand’s Stock Exchange Index, the SET, was down by 17% from its July 29th high point
      •   The technology hardware sector was particularly hit by the floods. KCE, a Thai manufacturer of printed circuit boards, whose shares fell by 35%. The damages
          from the flooding to KCE were estimated at nearly $60 million ($36m fixed assets & $14m inventory)

Source: MEASURING PHYSICAL CLIMATE RISK IN EQUITY PORTFOLIOS, 427 & Deutsch Bank, 2017                                                                                          43
However, there are a number of key risks and
    challenges that CDC must remain cognizant of
Key challenges                                       Mitigation

                                                     In-depth due diligence and strict adherence to “Invest” selection criteria.
    Monitoring intermediary risk: do acquisition
                                                     Continuous monitoring and benchmarking against FI investment principles.
1   targets really have green mandates or are
                                                     Post-investment involvement through CDC FI “Influence” capabilities (incl.
    they just green-washing?
                                                     Educate, Advise, Connect dimensions)

                                                     Definition of target return profile for FI investments across products and
    Balancing financial returns and climate impact
                                                     regions. Potential introduction of “return discount” based on respective climate
2   (e.g. adaptation projects with high-risk high-
                                                     score (e.g. score >30 merits X% IRR discount) – need for objective and
    reward profile)
                                                     quantifiable process

    Implementing is harder than strategy – Avoid     Develop clear strategy with ambitious, but achievable, roll-out in phases (see
3   capital draw down away from highly effective     “Recommendations”). Engage the organization by motivating stakeholders,
    projects                                         communicating internally & externally and defining key actions to be taken.

    Business Integrity risks: How to support         CDC FI aides with improvement of control frameworks; Development of
4   Financial Crime & Compliance teams to            policies & procedures (e.g. AML/CFT, Sanctions, Anti Bribery etc.); Bespoke
    prevent and detect integrity risks               training for board, management and compliance personnel

    Financial Risk: How to strengthen underwriting
                                                     CDC FI provides loan portfolio reviews; Assessment of underwriting practices;
5   practices and ensure development of high-
                                                     Improvement of financial & risk reporting
    quality portfolios
                                                                                                                                        44
Hedging such risks and working toward a 1.5°C scenario
          could bring significant value to CDC and its investees
    Value creation linked to green / climate finance                                                                                                                           Building better beta

    New Growth Opportunities                                                                                Differentiation / Intangibles
    •   Finance the shift towards green and circular                                                        •   Engage stakeholders to restore trust and goodwill
        economies                                                                                           •   Engage customers’ personal and business values to
    •   Satisfy demand for climate friendly banking choices                                                     enhance loyalty
        and products                                                                                        •   Higher brand value

                                                                                       Increase positive
    •   Increase customer base through new market                                                           •   Attract and retain talent through a climate friendly
        segments                                                                                                culture
    •   Financially include disadvantaged groups such as                                                    •   Improved regulatory relationships
        youth, micro-enterprises and low-income customers to                                                •   Higher scorings in sustainability rankings
        unlock new growth opportunities
    •   Provide interested asset owners with investment-
        solutions that integrate ESG-considerations

                                                                                   Climate
                                        More certain /shorter term              Friendly Value             Less certain / longer term                                          Results of meta-studies on link between
                                                                                   Creation                                                                                    ESG and financial performance (by type of relationship)

    Cost Reduction                                                                                         Risk Mitigation
    •   Reduce cost of energy through efficient /smart buildings,                                           •   Understand risks resulting from climate change trends
                                                                                       Reduce negative

        data centers, etc.                                                                                  •   Integrate social and environmental risk in credit
    •   Leverage digital technologies to reduce costs and                                                       evaluation, asset management and corporate finance
        resource usage, i.e. attracting clients to digital channels                                             services
    •   Leverage climate friendly sourcing practices to reduce                                              •   Reduce regulatory risks
        cost of supplies                                                                                    •   Maintain license to operate
    •   Reduced costs from more efficient operating model                                                   •   Reduce uncertainty of business risks
    •   Reduced resource consumption                                                                        •   Protect brand by respecting norms and emerging
    •   Avoid costs due to fines or settlements                                                                 expectations

Source: Adapting portfolios to climate change, Blackrock 2016 / DWS and University of Hamburg ‘ESG and Financial performance evidence from More than 2,000 empirical studies                                                             45
APPENDIX
APPENDIX

           App 1.1 Impact of climate change on Infrastructure & energy sectors
           App 1.2 Status on climate financial regulations in ASEAN
           App 1.3 ASEAN market maturity to support green Finance

           App 2.1 – 2.5 Illustration of criteria & climate maturity assessment questionnaire
           App 2.6 – 2.10 Illustration on how CDC can influence FI to become greener
           App 2.11 Green finance opportunities in ASEAN per sector

           App 3.1 Glossary
           App 4.1 Delivery Team

                                                                                                47
Appendix 1.1 - Impact of climate change in the infrastructure
   sectors – a worldwide perspective
     Vulnerability of Global infrastructure assets to climate hazards   Key highlights

                                                                        • Each infrastructure asset type has unique
                                                                          vulnerabilities to climate hazards.

                                                                        • Airport / Air freight can be significantly
                                                                          impacted by sea level rising (25% of
                                                                          busiest airport are less than 10meters from
                                                                          sea level)

                                                                        • Rail and roads are more affected by
                                                                          flooding than by heat, because of the
                                                                          vulnerability of signaling systems to water
                                                                          exposure

                                                                        • Telecommunications infrastructure assets
                                                                          may be affected only to a minimal or
                                                                          moderate degree by climate hazards

                                                                        • The power grid is also vulnerable. Extreme
                                                                          heat can lead to the combined effects of
                                                                          efficiency losses and increase in peak load
                                                                          from greater use of air-conditioning

Source: Climate risk & response, Mckinsey report Jan 2020                                                               48
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