Research Team Trialogue 2: The Spread of COVID-19 and Its Im- pact on Global Democracy
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Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, many have talked of an acceleration of democracy’s retreat
around the globe. Against that backdrop, members of the Democracy for the Future project research team
discussed their assessments of the current state of democracy, how democracy has been challenged by this
infectious disease, how Japan should engage with democracy around the world, and why democracy is
important anyway. The following is a record of discussions held on January 25, 2021, which were originally
published in Japanese.
Research Team Trialogue 2: The Spread of COVID-19 and Its Im-
pact on Global Democracy
Participants
Kaori Shoji, Professor, Department of Political Studies, Gakushuin University
Hiroaki Shiga, Executive Senior Research Fellow, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA),
Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development
Ryo Sahashi, Associate Professor, Pioneering Asian Studies, Institute of Advanced Studies on Asia, The
University of Tokyo; Co-Director Democracy for the Future Study Team, Japan Center for International
Exchange (Moderator)
Contents
1. Democracy in Recent Years
2. Threats Posed to Democracy by the COVID-19 Pandemic
3. How Japan Should Engage in Democracy Around the World
Democracy in Recent Years But in the past few years we have also witnessed
the spread of populism, divided politics, dissemi-
Moderator: Today, as one year has passed since nation of false information, and the gathering of
COVID-19 began to spread, we look at how democ- intelligence on elections and political parties by
racy has changed and even regressed in Japan and foreign countries, which have all put a spotlight on
the world. I would like to discuss with you how we democracy. Fears of a retreat in democracy in
should respond to the present situation. countries around the world related to the spread of
President Biden was inaugurated in the United COVID-19 have also been raised by many organi-
States exactly five days ago (January 20, 2021), and zations. I don’t think democracy has drawn this
in his inaugural speech, he used the word “democ- kind of attention since immediately after the Cold
racy” more than ten times to emphasize its importance, War ended. And I believe special mention must be
even saying, “democracy has prevailed.” This focus made of the boom in democracy theories and
on the word democracy speaks to what has taken growing alarmism about democracy in the past few
place in recent years. Of course, Biden’s refer- years.
ences to democracy were a response to the storm- Today, I would like to ask you both to share
ing of the Capitol two weeks earlier, on January 6. your expert perspectives on what is happening to
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 1
democracy of late. Looking forward several years that the main “wave” came in the 1990s.) But not
and even more long-term, I would like to ask where even ten years later, things were not looking good.
you see global democracy heading, what issues ex- By 2010, the situation was described as an “author-
ist, and why democracy has gone in the direction it itarianism counter-attack” and here we are today.
has. Mr. Shiga, would you mind going first? On this point, I would like to separate out two
sets of issues: issues of democracy in developing
countries and countries in transition, and issues
of democracy in advanced countries. Many ex-
perts can speak on the latter, so I would like to
talk specifically about the issues of the former,
while weaving in challenges related to develop-
ment assistance.
First, for those working in development assis-
tance, awareness of the growing trend toward a
retreat of democracy started around 2010. Much
debate centered on the incredible economic might
of China—an authoritarian country—and the im-
Shiga: By way of a brief self-introduction, I work
pact on democracy in developing countries of this
for the Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace
former aid recipient becoming a donor.
and Development, which is connected to JICA—
I would like to share my experience in Cam-
an agency for implementing development aid. I am
bodia. After the 1991 Paris Peace Agreements,
more of a researcher now, but I was originally a
Cambodia received development aid from influ-
development aid field worker.
ential Western agencies like the World Bank and
I joined JICA’s predecessor, known as the
the Asian Development Bank (ADB), as well as
Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund, in 1991—
support from Western countries for democratiza-
the year of the collapse of the Soviet Union. With
tion under the banner of aid for good governance.
the end of the Cold War, it was a period of great
For many years, the biggest donor in Cambodia
activity in terms of support for transition of sys-
was Japan. Because finances were so tight in
tems. My work was totally intertwined with the
Cambodia, for want of a better phrase, the govern-
global issue of the day, namely, how former Soviet
ment listened obediently to Western governments
and other Eastern European nations could switch
and international agencies. However, according to
from socialism to capitalism and from communist
stories shared with me by World Bank and ADB
authoritarian governments to democracies. I was
representatives based in Phnom Penh, a rapid in-
also engaged in post-conflict support, helping the
crease in aid from China in the 2000s led the
countries of former Yugoslavia rebuild from noth-
Cambodian government to stop listening to advice
ing after suffering a dreadful ethnic conflict. Daily,
from the West on democratization and corruption
I was troubled by how to resolve the clash and con-
countermeasures. It seems they calculated that
tradiction between the lofty ideals of democracy
even if funds from the World Bank and advanced
and rule of law from the West and the reality on
nations stopped, they could still easily secure aid
the ground in countries like Russia, Ukraine, Geor-
from China. This situation was not only observed
gia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina. This has become the
in Cambodia; the rise of authoritarian governments
driving force for my research, and I will reflect on
like China, Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia
those experiences as I speak today.
caused a slowdown in democratization and gov-
People in countries undergoing transition
ernance reforms all over the world. This is a major
around the world were excited about the advance
challenge for development aid agencies and one
of democracy during the “third wave of democra-
that is becoming more serious all the time.
tization” in the 1990s. (The third wave actually be-
gan in 1974, but I don’t think anyone will argue
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 2
Setting aside the issue I just raised about price of bread rose tenfold instantly, and in one
China’s aid, it is arguable that we must be con- case, an elderly woman suffered a heart attack and
cerned about a return to authoritarianism in coun- died from shock when she heard the price at the
tries that democratized during the third wave. But market. Regular people lost their stable jobs, free
for people like me who have seen the situation education, and free medical care—vested rights
first-hand, if you put yourself in the position of from Soviet times.
people in these countries, there are justifiable rea- And worse yet, in the process of radical privat-
sons for the retreat of democracy. You can under- ization led by the West, a small fraction of people
stand it to some extent. I will talk about Russia as took state assets—community property belonging
one example of this. to all citizens—and put it in their own pockets to
When it comes to Russia, people are critical, become oligarchs and some of the richest people
saying, “Russia’s shift back to authoritarianism is in the world. They forged ties with key people in
outrageous.” Of course, I agree. But we in the West the Yeltsin administration, took over the media,
need to ask why it has happened this way and care- and worked to move politics in their favor. It is no
fully reflect on whether some responsibility lies surprise that regular people were filled with dis-
with us and our failure to properly support Rus- content; they wondered why democracy, which is
sia’s transition. In response to the trend of author- supposed to be for all, was causing them to suffer
itarianism in China and around the world, I think so badly, while a handful of politicians and oli-
perhaps there will be a movement among Western garchs had such a good deal. That is the memory
countries, including Japan, to rally together once of Russia’s first foray into “democracy” in the
more. When that time comes, we must take lessons 1990s: chaos, injustice, and disparity.
from the 1990s and see where major issues lie in Then Putin emerged, gallantly vowing to bring
our transition support and democracy promotion in order to the chaos. He kept the oligarchs’ despot-
countries undergoing democratization. My fear is ism under check, brought the economic chaos un-
that this kind of reflection is totally missing from der control, realized economic growth, and re-
discussions about the state of Russia’s democracy. solved the problems directly affecting citizens’
When the Soviet Union collapsed and the in- lives, such as unpaid wages and lost pensions. The
dependent Russian Federation was formed with reason Putin has been able to remain in power for
the birth of the Yeltsin administration in 1991, the such a long time is that he has support from citi-
West saw it simply as a switch from dictatorship zens based on these results. There have been some
to democracy and believed the Russian people shadows on his approval rating in the past few
would be delighted at their release from the years, but he still enjoys very broad support. And
Communist one-party dictatorship. Everyone as- even without the assassination of journalist Anna
sumed the Russian people would be enjoying Politkovskaya, who had been critical of the gov-
their freedom. But this is totally misguided. Of ernment, and the arrest of his political rival Alexei
course, there are many different people in Russia, Navalny, Putin would easily have won the election.
and the people I know—intellectuals—were de- Western countries criticize Putin, but the Russian
lighted they could speak freely about anything. assessment is totally different. The chaos that
However, for about 80 percent of the population, Putin eventually brought under control was the
the decade after the fall of the Soviet Union is re- consequence of failures of the West in their aid for
membered as a period of confusion, broadening transition and democratization. Russia’s democra-
economic gaps, and injustice. tization was run not only on the Russians’ agenda
During the transition period, Western countries but on ours as well, so we need to pay serious at-
and international agencies pushed Russia to un- tention to the experience of these failures. That is
dergo extremely rapid economic reforms referred one issue I would like to raise.
to as “shock therapy.” On January 2, 1992, govern-
ment support for basic consumer goods, including
food, was abolished, leading to hyperinflation. The
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 3Outside Russia, countries like Ukraine, Geor- broadly criticizing the Trump campaign for not ad-
gia, and Kyrgyzstan have received democratiza- mitting defeat, claiming irregularities, and starting
tion aid on the path to becoming democracies, but legal battles without any proof, Biden said, “In this
the major issue is that many people do not see the battle for the soul of America, democracy pre-
fruits of democratization. People have no real vailed.” His words in that case were clearly ex-
sense that their voices are now reflected in politics pressing a win over Trump, and that is how many
and their lives are better under a democracy. Many audiences heard it. I wondered about this choice of
people discuss the difficulty of democratic consol- words and if Biden genuinely wants to realize
idation, but one thing that can be said without unity and healing, and whether he intends to ex-
question from looking at the former Soviet Union tend a hand to Trump supporters. Most media out-
and the countries of Eastern Europe is that, as lets described the Trump era and an America with
long as there is a growing economic gap and vis- so many Trump supporters as “divided” and wel-
ible injustice, the standards of democracy will not comed Biden’s call to overcome this division and
take root among regular citizens. And because of “return to normalcy.” But I think this amounts to
that, even if the West appears to have succeeded negating close to half the US population.
in governance reform through the introduction of I think it is extremely dangerous to describe
democratic systems, democracy will not take root. the presidential election win by a candidate from
I feel very strongly that we must carefully review one political party—the Democratic party—as a
these lessons. “win for democracy.” Despite the issues sur-
rounding President Trump, it is only natural that
with the choice between two major political par-
ties—Republican or Democratic—that some peo-
ple will choose the Republican Party. Describing a
win by the candidate from one of the major parties
as democracy prevailing, I feel, is arrogant and in-
sensitive. How many of those who voted for
Trump were happy with this rhetoric? Repeated
expressions of “unity” and “democracy has pre-
vailed” in speeches immediately after the election
right through to the inauguration seem appealing,
but I think they contribute to the alienation of mas-
Moderator: Thank you for raising those points. sive social groups in America. And despite that,
Next, we would like to hear from you, Prof. Shoji. the fact that Japanese and other media outlets lion-
ized those words unconditionally was also, I be-
Shoji: I teach US politics at Gakushuin University. lieve, extremely dangerous.
Because of my specialization, I have spent a total Related to this are the facts that many feel
of ten years living in the United States. I will focus American democracy has come under threat in re-
my discussions on the US, sharing my thoughts on cent years, and that there were multiple issues with
how I see the present situation. the Trump Administration. The most critical of
In your introduction, you talked about how de- those for me is the fact that America, the country
mocracy came up as a keyword in President with the most democratic candidate selection pro-
Biden’s inaugural speech. If you consider the as- cess in the world, could produce a demagogue
sault on the Capitol building and the fact that the president who threatened democracy and the rule
United States was still able to hold a peaceful in- of law. America’s system of primary elections held
auguration ceremony, it is reasonable to use an ex- to select candidates for almost every public office,
pression like “democracy has prevailed.” However, is the ultimate in democratic approval processes
back in December, when ballot-counting was done because anyone can participate as long as they are
and Biden’s election win was confirmed, after a registered voter (or in some states, registered
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 4with a political party). Someone can enter as a can- to freedom of speech and whether a leader who
didate even if they have never contributed to the continues to spread rumors that disrupt democracy
party, and Trump proved that if you gain popular- and freedom should have guaranteed access to so-
ity in the primaries, you can seize the presidential cial media. Others showed a preference for
nomination. That is the kind of system the US pri- strengthening the selection of targets for regulation
maries operate under. The past four years have based on content and subject matter, saying that if
made us really think about how, in this system of Trump’s access is going to be restricted, we should
democracy, there are no guarantees about the kind also be placing limits on leaders in Iran. One study
of person that will be elected. showed that the incidence of misinformation
The second point I would like to discuss is the spread through social media dropped dramatically
database being very carefully compiled by the after Trump’s Twitter account was suspended.
Washington Post on the amount of false and mis- America and indeed the whole world witnessed
leading claims made during Trump’s presidency. just how much influence a demagogue can wield
They found that he told more than 30,000 lies dur- by maximizing their audience via social media.
ing his term, eroding trust in the media and democ- Trump’s impact was so strong that in analyses
racy. In some further interesting data, the fre- of the 2020 election, the debate is focused on him.
quency of his lies increased rapidly over time, and But the fact is that voter suppression has been an
more than half of these lies were told during his issue in America since its foundation. The voter
last year in office. People like Trump who outright suppression seen in recent years did not start under
refuse to recognize their faults or mistakes need to Trump; we need to look carefully at the fact that,
keep telling more lies to support the initial lie told, especially over the last ten years, the Republican
and so the frequency of lies keeps increasing. Party, with its base of conservative white support-
Looking at Trump’s daily rate of lies, it was six per ers, has been working on it deliberately. In other
day in his first year, 16 in the second, 22 in the words, there has been a medium- to long-term
third, and by his fourth year in office it reached 39 trend among conservative whites to intervene in
lies per day. In America, there is a pattern of natu- the fundamental democratic process through
rally following, supporting, and believing the voter suppression of minorities, driven by a sense
words of the democratically elected president. of fear that they will become a minority in the
That explains why even lies that would normally near future. The Republican Party of course
never be believed are taken at face value when told stresses the pretext of preventing voter fraud, but
consistently by someone in the post of president. It they have in fact been making the voting process
creates an enormous pool of people who believe in tougher in a variety of ways that exclude minori-
those lies. Results of one study also showed a ties. The fact that insecurity around falling from
strong tendency among Trump supporters to seek majority status has led to voter suppression and
and be subordinate to an authoritarian-style leader. even attacks on democracy is a critical point when
It seems that America’s strong democratic norms considering the survival of mature democracies.
worked as a mechanism to highlight the virtues of And we must pay attention to the trends taking
the democratic selection process and normalize the place over much longer spans of time than just
insistent and baseless claims of the president, treat- Trump’s time in power.
ing them as highly charismatic behavior. There was substantial suppression of human
My third point is about social media. I think rights under the Trump Administration. There are
this is perhaps the first time that issues caused by too many examples to mention them all, but I think
social media have been so prominent. In the end, the biggest issue to touch many in America was the
President Trump’s Twitter and Facebook accounts handling of immigrants. In particular, the Trump
were suspended on the basis that posts there in- administration was fiercely criticized for its inhu-
cited the assault on the Capitol. Debate unfolded mane border control policy on the Mexican border.
from many perspectives following that. On one This caused children to be separated from their
hand, there were strong voices of concern related parents for long periods of time, to the point, in
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 5some cases, that their parent-child relationship of the number of female parliamentarians. But un-
could no longer be verified. Meanwhile, in foreign able to endure Trump’s words and actions, women
diplomacy Trump focused on the performance, dove into politics in great numbers after Trump’s
showing himself arguing with dictatorial and au- election in 2016. One of the reasons long given for
thoritarian leaders over “deals,” but never demon- the low numbers of female parliamentarians has
strating leadership on advocating for human rights. been a lack of confidence as a result of discrimina-
This severely damaged America’s status as a tion and prejudice against women in society. But
leader of democracy in international society. there was explosive growth in the numbers of fe-
The extremely shocking thing is that, despite male candidates who thought, “If someone like
this, in the end, more than 74 million people still Trump can be president, …” The result was clear
voted for such a person. One possible explanation in the 2018 midterm elections and continued
for Trump’s election in 2016 was that many voted through to 2020, when there were gains in the
for him with hope that he may be a good president, number of female parliamentarians at both the
not really knowing the kind of person he was. But state and federal levels. Triggered by the rise in
the fact that there were so many people who voted Democratic Party congresswomen, the Republican
for him again after seeing his four years in office Party increased their number of congresswomen in
was an enormous shock to countless people inside the 2020 election too.
and outside America. There were some disaffected My second point is on Black Lives Matter.
Republicans who found Trump intolerable and Black people being murdered senselessly by white
voted for Biden, but an overwhelming majority police officers has been an ongoing issue in US so-
still supported Trump. I think it is impossible to ciety, but the reason it became such a huge move-
explain this simply from the angle of people being ment this time, with the participation of many
forced to decide between two parties. There was, white people too, was because of the sense of cri-
without a doubt, an enormous pool of people who sis caused by constant discriminatory speech
approved of Trump and his speech, conduct, and during the Trump administration. And I think the
style as president, including the continuous lies, at- reason it expanded into a movement that went
tacks on the media, contempt for democratic pro- beyond a protest by the minority group that was
cesses, and self-righteous behavior. being victimized was because of a shared sense
It was four years in which we were all forced of crisis on a broad range of issues. That sense
to rethink democracy and how it could easily col- of impending crisis led to extremely high voter
lapse at any time if we do not foster the standards turnout and record voting numbers in the most
of democracy like our own flesh and blood. And it recent presidential election.
was a period in which an enormous issue was
thrust upon us: how do we build strength and how
do we train voters in media literacy to be able to
stand up to a president or anyone at the top who
lies constantly?
I would also like to touch on some points that
gave me great hope. These events served in some
way to revitalize democracy in the face of an
enormous threat. I think this is an extremely im-
portant point that shows the real strength of de-
mocracy in America.
The first point I would like to make is how the
record for numbers of women in Congress is being Moderator: Thank you very much. First, I would
continuously updated. For a long time, the num- like to hear a little more from Mr. Shiga. I com-
bers were not increasing much, and America pletely agree that an authoritarian government’s
ranked quite low among advanced nations in terms
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 6rise to economic superpower has caused a slow- they do not push or force it on others, they’ll en-
down in and distortion of initiatives for govern- gage in aid for democratization with the overarch-
ance reform on the path to democracy. ing attitude that they are number one.
On the other hand, if you look at the personnel The other possibility is that the United States
choices of the Biden administration, there is a clear takes a more modest approach. Up until now, the
positioning in key posts of people concerned with US operated with a sense of exceptionalism, see-
democracy and human rights. The new director of ing itself as the very model of democracy and not
the United States Agency for International Devel- considering that there might lessons to be learned
opment (USAID) is Samantha Power, the former from other countries. But through Trump’s term
ambassador to the UN, and a number of people and the experience of the COVID-19 crisis, we
with a deep knowledge of democracy occupy high- now see—even among Americans—the emer-
level posts in the National Security Council. In that gence of the idea that we need to review past errors
regard, I think America might once again move in and rebuild democracy incorporating lessons
the direction of aid and governance reform. learned from other countries, no longer taking a su-
Mr. Shiga, you take a rather harsh viewpoint, perior position and lecturing to others. In discus-
saying it will not work out unless there is a whole- sions during the November 24, 2020, “Democracy
sale review of democracy promotion to date. Is that for the Future” project online forum, Michael J.
to say you feel it is impossible? Is there a chance Green said, “We need to coordinate more and think
that the switch to the Biden Administration and a harder about how we expand the democratic space
return to the American way of advancing democ- because it’s under assault, including at home in the
racy and human rights in the world once more US, and we all have to pick up our game.” If this
could be a major game changer in the face of humility not before seen in the US becomes main-
China’s methods? stream, I think things will move in the right direc-
tion. However, while saying “we are not the
Shiga: As Prof. Shoji mentioned earlier, the model,” Green also lectured Japan on issues in Jap-
Trump Administration showed practically no in- anese aid for democratization (laughs). If deep
terest in issues of democracy and human rights, down Americans still view their system as the
so I do think the focus in international politics model for democracy, the people of Southeast Asia
going forward will be on how America under a and other developing countries will be terribly dis-
Biden administration will roll back tendencies pleased. Add to that the temptation of China’s
towards authoritarianism. “mask diplomacy” and “vaccine diplomacy” and
I have both hope and fear about these moves people may really start to think the Chinese model
America is making. Or to put it another way, I is better.
think America’s moves are a “double-edged How will the US reflect on the disastrous
sword.” My first hope is that the United States will scenes of its own liberal democracy exposed by the
restore leadership and interest in spreading univer- crisis of COVID-19, and how humble will it be?
sal values around the world. JICA has opportuni- And will America be able to commit to actions
ties to coordinate with USAID and other agencies, based on “democracy partnerships” to build de-
and I hope Japan will form a united front with the mocracy together through shared experiences and
United States. lessons learned rather than simply promoting de-
However, the question is how the US will en- mocracy based on its own model? Those are the
gage in the promotion of universal values going essential factors in whether America will serve as
forward. I think there are two possibilities. One a game-changer or not.
possibility is that, as shown in President Biden’s
declaration that “democracy has prevailed,” the Moderator: Thank you. I would also like to ask
US will conclude that American democracy is the Prof. Shoji about the extremely important issues of
strongest after all, and they’ll view it as a model voter intimidation, social media, and misinfor-
for democracy in other countries so that, even if
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 7mation. What you mentioned about voter intimida- With the attack on the Capitol, strong short-
tion was raised in a movie about Stacey Abrams term measures were necessary. But be it Trump or
called All In: The Fight for Democracy. The movie anyone else, a lot of the debate now emerging is
has recently become available in Japan, so I think that there must be no permanent banning of ac-
many people can now access it. counts or access. Recently, the fact that there are
It goes without saying that problems of social strong voices saying that it was an emergency sit-
media and misinformation are highlighting critical uation, but also that this kind of intervention is ex-
issues in America’s democracy. Prof. Shoji, you tremely dangerous, show how healthy American
mentioned a feeling of great hope, but even so, democracy actually is. I think it is a great comfort
some feel still more proactive measures are neces- that even after these experiences, the mainstream
sary to better manage democracy in America and media still has a deep awareness of the need to con-
the countries of the world. tinue as a venue for sharing diverse opinions.
Regulations including the suspension of Presi- Even after the events on this occasion, most
dent Trump’s Twitter account and restrictions on a Americans do not think the government should im-
host of other accounts were handed down in quick pose restrictions on democracy. In the end, with
succession, like a domino effect, based entirely on diversity in opinions and interests, every person is
the judgement of the social media platform owners. free to say whatever they want. And with that
Some extreme conservatives could no longer use backdrop, this debate made me realize anew the
the Parler app and were even thrown out from importance of securing spaces for the convergence
Amazon Web services in the end. It may be accu- of ideas on what people believe to be right.
rate to describe these restrictions by platform own-
ers as “self-purging” for the purpose of protecting Moderator: From January 6 onwards, there was an
democracy. However, they can also be seen as avalanche of restrictions put in place. Given the
furthering division in democracy and cornering shocking events that unfolded with the restrictions
people genuinely trying to engage in debate put on President Trump’s personal account and the
about democracy. incursion of the Capitol it’s easy to forget, but if you
I would like to ask about the kind of actions remove those events think about it in more general
that must be taken to manage democracy and lead terms, many people feel that the regulations imposed
it in the right direction. Is it something that private by these social platforms were extremely harsh in
businesspeople like platform owners should be terms of the balance with freedom of speech. In nor-
leading, or should governments be instituting reg- mal times, such regulations would only be handed
ulations? Who should be taking what kinds of down after extensive debate in society.
measures in response to issues of disinformation,
the infodemic, and social media that have caused Shoji: In general, there is a very broad concern
the problems we see in democracy today? around the control of public debate under authori-
tarian regimes and fascist systems. But on this oc-
Shoji: I think it is an enormous risk to cut off not casion in the United States, it was the liberal side
just an individual like Trump, but also the venues constantly saying that Trump’s words should be
for exchange between right-wing people, even if regulated. I think this is an extremely important
only temporarily. For example, when we see news point. In America, there are many on the conserva-
about the less-than-stable democratic governments tive side who assert their freedom to say whatever
of African countries restricting social media use they want. We must pay attention to the fact that
around the time of elections, we think it is awful, this time it was the people on the left, the liberals,
right? It is the same situation except it was the ad- seeking controls on speech under the Trump ad-
ministration itself that was restricted this time. The ministration. In other words, I think we saw first-
fact that such a thing can happen even in America hand the risk that people from either side can call
was incredible. for regulation and control depending on who is
causing the problem. There is not only the risk that
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 8certain subjects are constantly targeted, but it also countries, and this has been a very powerful take-
creates a situation where it is impossible to gain away from those discussions.
widespread support from the American public. Over the past decade, even with growing
Further, even if you can control dangerous state- awareness in many developing countries around
ments through abstract frameworks such as pro- the Chinese authoritarian model as an option, there
hibiting the “incitement of violence,” the removal has still been trust, if not conviction, that they
of radical conspiracy theorists from major social should strive for the Western model of government.
media platforms risks marginalizing them into less This changed with the COVID-19 crisis. There has
visible spaces where they become further radical- been a dramatic decline in trust for Western liberal
ized. I think debate and investigation into these democracy as a model of governance. Trust in
matters will continue for some time. America’s style of liberal democracy has suffered
especially badly.
Threats Posed to Democracy by the I too have lived in America, and of course I
COVID-19 Pandemic never thought Black people had totally equal
standing, but I have to say the events that led to the
Moderator: Thank you for your thoughts on that. Black Lives Matter movement were shocking. I
I would like to move on now to the next discussion did not think things like this, an incident like the
point. COVID-19 has been spreading around the Black man George Floyd dying after being pressed
world for more than a year. What impact has the on his neck for 8 minutes and 46 seconds by a
COVID-19 crisis had on the various issues already white police officer in public view, still happened
seen for democracy? in this day and age. Prof. Shoji mentioned this too,
First, Mr. Shiga, what would you say has been but I did not know that white people were effec-
the extent of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on tively stealing Black people’s voting rights by ma-
developing nations and in places transitioning to nipulating the early voting system in Southern
democracy or where democracy had not long been states. These kinds of things that many people did
established? not know or want to know, and which had been
brushed aside, all came bubbling to the surface,
Shiga: Rather than talking about individual coun- triggered by the COVID-19 crisis. I suspect a lot
tries, I would like to discuss overall trends. My of developing countries gained new awareness of
first point is that the credibility of liberal democ- the current state of America’s liberal democracy.
racy in advanced Western countries has been dam- My second point is about how China and Rus-
aged by this COVID-19 crisis. sia are skillfully taking advantage of a loss of cred-
There is an unspoken assumption that the po- ibility for the Western political and economic
litical and socioeconomic systems of advanced model. Symbolic of this was the response to the
Western nations are the model when it comes to assault on the US Congress by the Chinese Foreign
development aid. And the US and European na- Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying. After first
tions have until now dispatched experts on democ- making a sarcastic comment about “praying for a
racy, local government, corruption countermeas- rapid return to stability and safety for the Ameri-
ures, and electoral systems to implement systems can people,” she criticized America for a double
for separation of powers (legislative, executive, standard, citing its treatment of the US incident as
and judicial), ombudspersons, and the decentrali- violence at the hands of extremist elements, while
zation of power in developing nations. But the pointing out that the US had praised those involved
credibility of Western liberal democracy as a in the violent destruction of the Hong Kong parlia-
model has declined greatly as the result of this pan- ment in July 2019 as heroes of democracy.
demic. Over the past year, I have had many oppor- Of course, it is possible to put forward coun-
tunities to talk online with people in developing terarguments to this statement, but it had a certain
degree of persuasiveness, leaving many in devel-
oping countries thinking, “Huh, that’s true.” And
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 9China and Russia are using this loss of credibility and more effective at implementing necessary
to go on the offensive. “Mask diplomacy” and measures than democratic systems. Of course,
“vaccine diplomacy” are good examples. Not even even looking at the response among authoritarian
13 percent of the world’s population lives in ad- countries, it has not gone well in places like Russia
vanced Western nations, and yet they have pur- and Iran, but it has in China. And in democracies,
chased more than half of the world’s vaccines and some countries in Europe failed in their response
are criticized by developing nations of “vaccine while others like Taiwan and Korea have seen suc-
nationalism.” Then China goes and supplies its cess. If you take a very close look, the argument that
vaccine to many developing nations, including In- authoritarianism is an advantage does not stand. But
donesia, Chile, Ukraine, Thailand, Malaysia, and the reality is that the claim of superiority by and for
the Philippines, even before its own 1.3 billion cit- authoritarianism has gained some traction.
izens have been immunized. So it is not that hard The second issue relates to the superiority of
to see how developing countries might view China democracy in terms of achieving human security.
as a better leader in international society. A Thai Advanced nations have long said to developing
health ministry official said, “Because Western countries that with its channels allowing citizens’
governments are democracies, their government voices to directly impact politics, democracy can
leaders are forced to answer to the citizens who better protect their citizens’ human security, that is,
voted for them. In times of crisis, authoritarian gov- better guarantee opportunities for the realization of
ernments are more equipped to supply public goods.” healthy and happy lives. However, in the very
Hearing statements like this makes us painfully birthplace of democracy—America—the COVID-
aware that Western nations may have lost their pre- 19 crisis exposed the reality that the human secu-
dominance as a model. For us going forward, when rity of Black people has not been guaranteed.
we are figuring out how to reverse this trend toward Many people in developing countries are thinking,
authoritarianism, I think we will see the biggest is- it took 100 years from the Emancipation Procla-
sue caused by COVID-19 is the loss of morality and mation freeing slaves until Black people had the
predominance of the Western model. right to participate in politics, and now another 50
years on, they still suffer so badly.
Moderator: Thank you. From the perspective of To summarize, from the perspective of devel-
developing nations, it seems possible then to inter- oping countries on the issues of implementing
pret the word “credibility” as “persuasiveness.” COVID-19 countermeasures and enhancing hu-
man security, there is a question mark on the per-
Shiga: Yes, that is exactly right. suasiveness of the claim that liberal democracy is
superior to authoritarianism.
Moderator: I have another question for you. You
said that COVID-19 has eroded the appeal and Moderator: That was very clear. Thank you very
persuasive power of democracy. Looking at the much. Next, Prof. Shoji, could you talk to us a bit
actual situation on the ground—the difficulty of about US democracy and the direction of democ-
restricting private rights in a democracy and the racy in the world.
slow pace of decision-making because of issues
in internal politics compared to authoritarian Shoji: As Mr. Shiga just mentioned, the biggest
countries—do these things make people recon- impact of COVID-19 has been a decline in the
sider the virtues of democracy? credibility of democracy around the world. But
here I will speak specifically about America.
Shiga: There are two issues. The first pertains to In America’s case, first and foremost, the past
the COVID-19 measures that you mentioned and four years have been about issues with Trump.
the rise of the perception among developing na- COVID-19 was then layered on top of that. But be-
tions that authoritarian systems are much faster cause the issues surrounding President Trump
were so extensive, there is not a lot of argument
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 10that democracy suffered more because of COVID- It is terrifying to imagine what would have
19. Conversely, people feel that Trump lost the happened if the tables were turned; COVID-19
election because of COVID-19’s negative impact could have taken the lives of influential party sup-
on the economy. So, if Biden supporters say this porters on an enormous scale. If a president with
was a win for democracy, then there is one side to widespread support from urban minorities and
the argument that COVID-19 in fact helped save low-income earners had said, “You don’t need to
democracy. wear masks,” what would the scale of damage
America is a society in which it is extremely have been then?
difficult to control people’s freedoms. Trump’s In terms of timing too, because COVID-19
stance was one of prioritizing the economy and spread throughout the country during the term of
downplaying COVID-19, and the fact that this ex- an economy-focused president like Trump, we do
tended into partisan positions is an extremely im- not know what he, a demagogue-like president,
portant point to remember when considering the would have done had he chosen to impose re-
US situation. It is unthinkable in other countries, strictions on people’s lives. He neglected to imple-
but the response to the life-and-death issue of ment a national response, basically turning a blind
COVID-19 came down to a test of loyalty in terms eye, and because of that a horrifying situation en-
of support for one’s political party and the presi- sued with more than 400,000 lives lost. But if he
dent, even going so far as to influence people’s un- had used COVID-19 as an excuse to impose re-
derstanding of this serious infectious disease. Wear- strictions, what might have happened then? I shud-
ing a mask became a symbol of opposition to der to think.
Trump—in areas with many conservatives you had It is quite difficult to assess the impact
to be careful about wearing a mask—and the idea COVID-19 has had on democracy within America,
that wearing a mask could even cause harm spread but one thing that suffered was the Black Lives
around the country. When people around the world Matter movement. It had been growing on a grand
saw news from the United States, they were scale not only among Black people, but also swell-
shocked beyond belief that these could be scenes ing to include white people and Asian and Latinx
from an advanced nation. This is absolutely the is- communities. My impression was that the Japa-
sue of credibility that Mr. Shiga was just discussing. nese media, in particular, focused solely on the vi-
Many Republican supporters are in rural areas, olent portions, which were one very minor part of
whereas many Democratic Party supporters are in the picture. The protest movement that spread
urban areas. The impact of COVID-19 was enor- across the United States was an extremely peaceful
mous for low-income earners and minorities, many one with regular people participating as families.
of whom are Democratic Party supporters, because One survey showed that especially among white
so many of them work at city locations doing jobs people in rural areas where protests were rare, their
that cannot be done from home. On the other hand, image of the Black Lives Matter movement was
the risk of infection is relatively low for people in that it was violent and dangerous because of the
isolated areas—home to many whites and Repub- sensational media coverage of the violent cases.
lican supporters—meaning they felt very little Despite excitement that it had permanently
danger of the virus and had very little sense that changed the nature of protest movements in Amer-
they might be infected. I think that’s the reason ica, I think the street protests died down as the
why when Trump said that COVID-19 was noth- presidential election neared as a direct result of
ing to worry about, so many believed him—even COVID-19.
though they were hanging out without masks, they Anti-Trump individuals took COVID-19 very
were in fact mostly fine. The downplaying of seriously, and this showed in a clear trend for vot-
COVID-19 touted by Trump correlates closely ing via mail ballots. And I think fear of infection
with the geographical distribution of Republican had a role to play in limiting their action on the
supporters. streets. Trump supporters, on the other hand, did
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 11not wear masks or limit their activities, so the me- its control. This is very important in terms of
dia picture, as it were, gave a biased impression counterfactual thinking.
that there were greater numbers of Trump support-
ers and that they were more active. I think that may How Japan Should Engage in Democracy
have served to further embolden Trump supporters. Around the World
However, the political donation culture was rein-
vigorated precisely because of this environment, Moderator: That brings us to our final discussion
which prevented people from heading out in into the point, centered on Japan. For those of us living in
streets. People who could not go out donated in- Japan, how do we engage with democracy around
stead. For better or worse, money spurred on every the world, and what should we make of the state of
election campaign. Because door-knocking—a cru- democracy in the world? Mr. Shiga just spoke
cial component in election campaigns—was not about how people in developing countries are start-
possible, greater weight was placed on costly tele- ing to feel some doubt with regard to democracy.
vision commercials. This raised the risk of a dog- So, I would like to hear your thoughts on why de-
fight in which the battle is won or lost based on the mocracy is still important. Prof. Shoji, could you
amount of money one can raise. please go first this time?
The widespread expansion of remote meetings and
events made geographical isolation a non-issue, ena- Shoji: First, I would like to talk about the possibil-
bling people who could not leave their homes or ities for Japan’s engagement in global democracy.
who had physical limitations on their time to par- My focus is the United States. Looking at the US
ticipate in politics. This meant anybody anywhere and the reasons why its democracy has been trans-
in the country could join in the conventions of ei- mitted around the world comes down to a sense of
ther party, which had previously been limited to faith in American democracy. If that faith wavers,
activists with sufficient time on their hands. This America loses its influence in foreign affairs. Over
was especially the case for Democrats, whose na- the last 10 to 20 years, faith has been maintained
tional convention was conducted entirely online. through incredibly impactful messages of success
The expansion of mail-in ballots had a similar ef- and reform in American democracy sent out to the
fect in promoting participation among people in world, as seen in the emergence of a Black presi-
situations or types of employment that typically dent and female vice president.
prevent them from voting on election day. These I think Mr. Shiga will discuss what Japan can do
changes opened up a new path in a country with in the world, but from this perspective, the way I see
the infrastructure to overcome such challenges, it is that if there is not sufficient respect for Japanese
even at a time when the disease was spreading with democracy from the outside, we have no messaging
explosive speed. power and absolutely no power of persuasion.
I am sure some will say there are no issues be-
Moderator: I feel really pleased listening to you, cause Japan is a full democracy that guarantees
Prof. Shoji, to hear grounds for optimism that free elections, but Japanese people tend to over-
America is not lost and democracy is still alive look the point that when viewed from outside, Ja-
and well. But at the same time, I feel the negative pan is essentially a single-party system. Despite
aspect, from the points you raised at the outset, the spate of issues and improprieties in the Liberal
that America’s COVID-19 response has been po- Democratic Party (LDP), there will never be any
liticized. Even areas that rely heavily on skill and momentum for an administration change if no one
expertise have become part of the political agenda. has any expectations for the opposition party. It
I appreciate you explaining very clearly the truly makes me wonder how much trust a country like
worrying nature of those developments. The thing ours earns as a model for democracy. Conversely,
that scared me the most was your question of what a case like ours becomes grounds for the argument
would have happened if the Trump administration by authoritarian governments that we may sing the
had wielded its political power and strengthened
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 12praises of democracy but that a stable government list compiled by the Inter-Parliamentary Union
run by one party is better after all. It is extremely (IPU) —an extremely low rank for an advanced
important to have a choice between two major par- nation. Then you look at Japan and it ranks
ties when you feel one has veered from the correct 166th—shockingly low. The House of Councillors
path and change is needed. Both Taiwan and South has reached a figure of 20 percent women, but the
Korea have achieved such a situation, although House of Representatives barely reaches 10 percent.
each may have its own issues. That is the first point Japan is a long way behind when it comes to women
that comes to mind when considering the extent of in politics, but not much issue is made of it. Debate
Japan’s power of persuasion in the world. seems to be kicking off somewhat, but there are no
Next, I would like to return to a point I raised clear indications of movement in this regard.
at the start—that of candidate selection. This is not This ties into the candidate selection process I
something that comes up often in Japan, but it is a mentioned earlier: if there is no way to challenge
critical point. Many countries, including South incumbents from within the party, we will never
Korea, Taiwan, and various places in Africa and see an increase in women under LDP one-party
Latin America, hold primaries as part of their can- rule. Candidate selection and female political par-
didate selection process. Many of these countries ticipation are all linked. To countries in Asia and
hold primaries not only for the president or na- Africa engaged in democracy head-on, Japan is
tional leader, but for the selection of candidates for neither special nor a model, and it pains me to say
national parliament too. It is only Japan where can- that we must question whether Japan is in any po-
didates are still chosen inside a “black box,” and sition to lead others. Until quite recently, people
yet there are no complaints from Japanese citizens. looked up to Japan based on economic strength,
It shows how little interest there is in the political but in the face of the rising economic superpower
process. Is it possible for a country like that to be of China, we are reaching the limit of our wealth-
a model for others? It is easy to see just how far dependant branding. Did Japan hone its democracy
behind Japan is when you look at the candidate se- during those bountiful years? This is a question
lection process. that will be asked by our neighbors in Asia who are
And I must mention the lack of progress in fe- working to find their own styles of democracy
male representation in politics. A governor mistak- while building economic strength.
enly used the term “glass ceiling” in a recent inci- I believe we need to create more opportunities
dent that revealed to many just how infrequently for Japanese people to contemplate democracy.
people in positions of high public office are en- Out in the world when asked, “What is Japan proud
gaged in discussions about female advancement in of?” would anyone respond “democracy”? Activ-
politics and society. A law was established in 2018 ists putting their lives on the line in Hong Kong
to promote gender equality in politics aimed at were shocked at the low turnout in Japan’s elec-
equal numbers of male and female candidates. But tions. They are astounded that people choose not
it is obviously not good enough to simply set tar- to exercise their right to vote, especially when
gets. Mexico is one country that has achieved par- there is no political suppression.
ity. I traveled there to survey people involved in I also think media literacy is an area that Japan
achieving that goal and they all said you have to needs to consciously educate people on. In connec-
make it compulsory. Laws and clauses to promote tion with recent events in the United States, even
parity are totally ineffective. Since laws promoting after fact checks of Trump supporters and the
parity have been enacted in Japan, there has been purging of all sorts of rumors, a group of people
very little debate about it. calling themselves J-Anon (not QAnon) endeav-
Earlier, I spoke about the increase in US con- ored to further spread the rumors. Why would such
gresswomen, but even so, looking at the House of a strange thing happen? Of course, there are all
Representatives after the January 2021 gains, kinds of reasons behind such scheming, but when
women still make up just 24 percent of all seats. considering the circumstances influencing a case
This puts the US at 68th out of 200 countries on a like this, I think English language education is an
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 13extremely important factor. I think that English democracy, I feel Japan is the only country in the
will be the global language in the end, and we live development assistance field that can advocate for
in times with the Internet where you can get what- viewing our models as relatives rather than as ab-
ever information you want if you can just read solutes. The US and European countries do not
English. Only being able to engage and interact in have that awareness. In the past, we have seen that
Japanese creates a totally closed information space. the argument that developing countries each have
This is an issue we need to take a hard look at now. their own logic, culture, and history, and that there
is no panacea has not been taken seriously in the
Moderator: Thank you. I understood that you Western-led aid sector. I think now is the time for
were stressing how Japan must first solidify de- Japan to actively advocate these ideas.
mocracy at home. I would like to come back to you So far, I have only talked about the decline of
again later to get your thoughts on why democracy acceptance of democracy, but that is not to say
is important in the first place, but first, Mr. Shiga, there is a yielding to the authoritarianism seen in
please go ahead. China and Russia. The key going forward to being
able to counteract authoritarianism is for each of
Shiga: I’ll speak from my perspective as a devel- us to reform our own systems—in Japan, Japanese
opment aid worker. I spoke earlier about how most liberal democracy, and in the United States, US
theories on development in developing countries liberal democracy—and come out confident in the
are of Western origin. Western systems of govern- values of liberal democracy. In the aid sector, this
ment, economy, and society are the models, and is referred to as Build Back Better (BBB).
there is an unspoken assumption that development Biden used these words as a slogan during the
is about getting close to achieving those models. presidential election, but the idea was originally
When providing development aid, Japan also ref- proposed at a UN disaster prevention meeting held
erences its own experiences with economic and in Sendai after the Great East Japan Earthquake. It
political development, but at least in Japan’s case, means to make improvements to infrastructure and
it recognizes that it is doing so. I do not think society damaged by disasters so that ultimately
Americans or Europeans have any awareness or they end up better than before the disaster struck.
recognition of themselves in that way. In the post-COVID-19 world, once the crisis has
This is a somewhat abstract example, but when passed, it will be crucial for Japan, the United
I spoke with someone working for the German aid States, and other liberal democracies to extend a
agency I said, “We insert a sense of Japan-ness into hand and help developing countries build back bet-
Japanese aid. In what ways do you incorporate ter. But it is also important to rebuild our own so-
German-ness into your aid?” The response I got cieties better than before, thereby raising the value
was “I don’t understand the question.” I probed of liberal democracy. I think that will raise the ap-
further saying, “Does Germany not assert some peal and value of liberal democracy in developing
unique aspect of itself from its own development countries vis-à-vis authoritarianism.
history and experiences to developing countries?” We need the West to reflect carefully on its ap-
And the retort was, “Absolutely not. Germany is proach to date of “you have to accept it because
working to share universal human values.” To this is the standard.” Japan needs to lead, imple-
which I said, “The universal human values you talk ment, and make mainstream the approach that says,
about originally came from the West—Germany, “Our country’s liberal democracy is just one model,
France, and America—so, wouldn’t you agree that so let’s share our knowledge and work together to
they contain some sense of German-ness? That’s determine how to fine-tune it to fit your country’s
how people in developing countries see it.” But no cultural, political, and economic situation.” I think
matter what I said, I could not make myself under- Japan has an important role to play in persuading
stood and we could not find agreement. the United States, Germany, and others to adopt
Bearing this in mind, and also in light of con- this approach.
cerns around a decline in the credibility of liberal
DEMOCRACY for the FUTURE 14You can also read
