SommerAkademie Europa and Young Leaders for Europe - Russia and Turkey in 2030 - scenarios from the 2017 alumni meeting - Bertelsmann Stiftung
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SommerAkademie Europa and
Young Leaders for Europe
Russia and Turkey in 2030 –
scenarios from the 2017 alumni meeting
A joint project of Bertelsmann
Stiftung and Heinz Nixdorf Stiftung
Young Leaders for Europe Young Leaders for Europe Content 2
Content
4 Introduction
6 The scenarios
6 Turkey in 2030 – A cosmopolitan country that blossomed after tough days
12 Turkey in 2030 – From ‘zero problems’ to aggressive realpolitik
20 Russia in 2030 – The neighbourhood bully – pure self-defence?
26 Russia in 2030 – Love thy neighbour or – Remember the end of liberal democracy?
30 The authors
32 The project partners
3
Young Leaders for Europe | Introduction
Introduction
It started as an experiment.
And it turned out a success.
Gabriele Schöler
In October 2017, a select group of alumni of the Without a doubt, both Russia and Turkey – together
“Summer Academy on Europe” and the “Young Lead- with Iran and Saudi-Arabia - have considerable influ-
ers for Europe” projects, successively run as a coop- ence on the neighbouring countries of the European
eration between the Bertelsmann Stiftung and the Union. The latter will have to include these key actors
Heinz Nixdorf Stiftung for almost 20 years, met in in a political and societal dialogue, if it wants to pro-
Berlin. In what we called a “scenario conference” mote peace and prosperity in the neighbourhood.
they were supposed to deal with “The ‘neighbours of
the neighbours’ – Russia and Turkey and their impact Yet how can the EU win them over as partners for
on EU neighbourhood relations ten years from now”. its neighbourhood policy?
Over the past years, Russia and Turkey and their re- This was the starting point for our Berlin meeting.
gional and global role have become an ever “hotter” With a focus on the two actors Russia and Turkey, for
topic in the Young Leaders for Europe seminars, for our alumni meeting we wanted to launch into a very
obvious reasons: interactive exercise: divided into four smaller groups
participants were to consider positive and negative
Putin’s politics at home and abroad, in particular future scenarios for both Russia and Turkey.
in the neighbourhood with frozen conflicts in Na-
gorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, Abkhazia and South In very concrete terms: what would relations among
Ossetia as well as, most recently, the annexation Russia, its neighbours and the EU, on the one hand,
of Crimea and the beginning of the war in eastern and Turkey, its neighbours and the EU, on the other,
Ukraine, have heavily burdened EU-Russian rela- look like in or around 2030 if they developed in a
tions. In addition, Russian influence by way of “hy- more positive or constructive way than today? And
brid warfare,” such as interference in the U.S. pres- what would they look like if the development be-
idential elections, has become more and more an came even more negative or destructive than they
issue for the West. are in 2017?
Turkey’s relations with the West have also become Before departing into the smaller working groups, a
extremely tense due to Erdoğan spurning European set of basic assumptions on the global and regional
values, democracy, rule of law, human and civil setting was agreed on by the entire group in order
rights, and his repeated threat to cancel the EU-Tur- to avoid discussion about “yet what if XY happens
key refugee agreement. Meanwhile, the country in the global context?”
has also been trying to gain more influence in the
Middle East. Under the impact of the war in Syria, After the four scenarios were sketched in the re-
the fear of a Kurdish state, and not least for eco- spective working groups, participants were asked
nomic reasons, Turkey has closed ranks with former to do something rather unusual and imagine they
enemy Iran and buried enmities with Russia over were looking back from around 2030 to 2017 and
the shoot-down of a Russian fighter jet in 2015. develop what events might have led to the situa-
4
It started as an experiment. And it turned out a success.
tion they depicted. Looking back seemed to be one
of the major challenges as, usually, we tend to de-
velop a real situation into the future, not the other
way round, and yet participants made it work. The
process was facilitated by a long-time cooperation
partner, the Berlin-based company planpolitik, spe-
cialised on developing and carrying out tailor-made
simulation games on different topics, very often in a
European policy context and setting.
Participants willingly took up the challenge of sce-
nario-developing. What they came up with at the end
was tied together by one rapporteur per workshop.
This little volume is less a documentation of the ef-
forts but a summary of the results, enhanced by jour-
nalistic experience and just a bit of artistic licence.
We want to stress that these are fictitious scenar-
ios, fictitious courses of events that led there, and
fictitious persons mentioned in the reports. They
were developed, though, by real individuals either
living in, or working on, the countries and regions
under debate. They are neither dreams nor wishes
expressed by the participants and summarised by
the rapporteurs, but rather scenarios developed on
the basis of jointly worked-out basic assumptions.
These scenarios, however, describe potential devel-
opments in their extreme cases. They do not reflect At the same time, the brochure marks the end of a
the opinions of the authors, facilitators, the Bertels- project which, over 19 years, brought together young
mann Stiftung or the Heinz Nixdorf Stiftung. people, initially mainly from Germany, later also from
other EU member states and neighbouring countries,
This brochure collects these “debates from the fu- to think and talk about strategies and options for Eu-
ture”. Their aim, as that of the articles, was to help rope, its progress at home and in improving neigh-
widen our horizon for potential consequences of bourhood relations. More than 600 “young lead-
current politics and show alternatives. The reports ers” from politics, business, the media and the NGO
reflect the “playful” character as much as the seri- sector took part in the programmes, which, in 1999,
ous background and dedicated discussions in Berlin. started as an experiment. And turned out a success.
5
Young Leaders for Europe | Turkey in 2030
Turkey in 2030
A cosmopolitan country
that blossomed after tough days
Sezin Oney, Sabine Rossi
It is the year 2030. On a sunny day in Istanbul, Anjel nians to Jews, Greeks to Kurds, and Turks to Arabs. A
is sitting out in a tea shop at the Seraglio Point, colourful demographic kaleidoscope, a truly cosmo-
where the Sea of Marmara meets the old Constanti- politan mosaic – such as Anjel, who is of Armenian
nople. She feels truly at the centre of the world. Her origin, and Ayşe, a Kurdish Alevi. Ayşe was expelled
hair is shining in the sunlight, while she is talking from the university as she signed the Peace Petition.
to her friend Ayşe, who returned to Istanbul only a She was among the academics losing their jobs and
month ago. Ayşe’s scarf is colourful. She just bought becoming the so-called “civilian dead” after the at-
it at a pop-up-store during the last fashion show tempted coup in July 2016. Therefore, Ayşe and her
that turned Sultan Ahmet Square, where once the family sought refuge in Berlin, Germany, in late 2016
Hippodrome of Constantinople stood, into a street- and lived there ever since. Her childhood friend Anjel
based catwalk. The event was not an exception: el- stayed back, but the two never cut their ties.
egant organizations and impromptu fashion shows
and cultural events pop up all around the city as Is- Finally, they are enjoying their beloved city to-
tanbul flourishes as a magnet of innovation and cre- gether: Istanbul now stands out as one of the
ativity. International magazines and travel guides al- world‘s most historic cities as well as one of its most
ready call it the leading fashion capital. glamorous modern urban centres. And unlike many
other megacities that face huge security problems,
Istanbul is now one of the safest cities in the world.
Istanbul shines like a jewel as a major tourist desti-
nation and a 21st century metropolis. It is not only
attracting the best and most skilful workforce in the
region, but people from all around the world flock in
to create start-ups and new businesses all over Tur-
key. The brain drain that Turkey faced in the 2010s
has been reversed; citizens, who once left Turkey
– such as Ayşe - are returning highly educated and
with monetary capital. Ayşe is about to set up a
business in Cihangir quarter in Istanbul. Her part-
ner, Mustafa, fled the Syrian war in 2015. Like many
other “once refugees“ he obtained the Turkish cit-
izenship and a legal residency, like him, they are
faring well and contributing to the socioeconomic
While Anjel and Ayşe enjoy their tea, tourists from all enrichment of Turkey with their culture, skills and
over the world rush by, exploring the only city in the human capital. The former refugees, mostly Syrians,
world that stretches out on two continents. Istanbul Iraqis, Afghans, Iranians, Somalians, have proved to
is home to a diverse population, ranging from Arme- be outstanding assets to Turkey, and the positive in-
6
A cosmopolitan country that blossomed after tough days
fluence of their presence has created a whole new Turkey is one of the leading countries – if not the
inspirational approach to immigration around the leading country – of the “Organization of Eurasian
world, causing “immigration“ to become a much de- Cooperation“ that includes countries from the Bal-
sired phenomenon. Turkey buzzes with different kans, the Caucasus, the Middle East, Africa and
languages, smells of spices mingle. Here at the Bos- Asia. About 75% of the world‘s population live in
porus one can find a collision of cultures that sets the Eurasian region and this extended region also
free new ideas. Istanbul is a spring of creativity. controls 75% of the world‘s so far discovered en-
ergy resources. Turkey is not limited to leading the
Anjel is an environmental expert, and enthusiasti- “Organization of Eurasian Cooperation” economi-
cally she tells Ayşe about latest investments in green cally, it also plays a key role as a moderating and
energy in Turkey. While climate change has been af- reconciling power.
fecting the globe adversely, Turkey managed to ben-
efit even from the environmental changes, remodel-
ling itself as a regional centre for solar power. In fact,
Turkey serves as the hub of development of new
“smart energy“ strategies and technologies. The Eu-
ropean Union has assumed a key role in Turkey‘s new
position as an energy hub. The relationship between
the EU and Turkey, which has faced many rocky turns
since the tempted coup in the summer of 2016 and
beyond, now rests on solid foundations. While Tur-
key is not a full member of the EU, it is one of its most
reliable partners and the parties have established an
economic and political partnership through various
agreements. Furthermore, Turkey is engaged in sim-
ilar economic and political agreements with Russia,
China and the United States. Nevertheless, the re- Back in 2017, this development was unimaginable,
lationship between Turkey and the EU is far beyond but Turkey managed to bounce back. How could this
this, constituting a special track compared to Tur- happen? Just in times when all hopes seemed lost in
key‘s other international engagements. Turkey, how did the country turn itself around, from
the brink of undemocratic changes and a doom-
While nipping on her tea, Ayşe wonders, “Anjel, you ing autocracy to recreating itself from its ashes?
who spent all these years here, how did you man- In order to analyse the reasons for this change, we
age not to lose hope?” Following the developments must return to the year 2017 and start following
in her home country from her German exile, Ayşe step by step how Turkey made its comeback.
admits that not even in her wildest dreams had she
seen herself sitting at the Sea of Marmara in a mul- Before it gets better, it gets worse: grim times first
ticultural Turkey. When Ayşe left Turkey, there were
many debates concerning a split of the Turkish soci- The years between 2015 and 2017 were grim times
ety between more religious and rather secular citi- for Turkey. After the general elections in June 2015,
zens. In 2017 and 2018, there was even sporadic vi- violence by terror organizations escalated and almost
olent unrest rooted in the growing tension between a thousand people died because of terror attacks.
the two camps. About that time, the Kurdish conflict The attempted coup d’état on July 15, 2016 marked
intensified as another source of violent conflict. But another catastrophic turning point: almost 260 peo-
Turkey in 2030 recognizes the benefits of diversity ple died, trying to resist the takeover by some fac-
and pluralism and cherishes its multicultural fabric. tions in the armed forces. In the aftermath of July 15,
Harmonious coexistence of cultures, ethnicities, na- Turkey was unable to turn a blank page after this vi-
tionalities, religions, attitudes and diverse modes of cious attempted coup and strive in a united manner
living have crafted this wonderful and unique model for democratization. Instead, democratic deficits in-
of Turkey, aspired to be emulated by other countries creased and human rights deteriorated. Hence, so-
in the region and beyond. cial and political polarization intensified.
7
Young Leaders for Europe | Turkey in 2030
By the end of 2017, Turkey was already inching to- and the political elite. Moreover, Russia tried to in-
wards an economic crisis. Its relations with the Eu- tervene economically, threatening Turkey to close
ropean Union and specifically with Germany, where down the gas and oil-pipelines. Due to inner strife
a huge Turkish diaspora composed of scientists, and the deep political and social polarization, An-
such as Ayşe, artists, intellectuals and former mem- kara was not able to protect itself and the country
bers of the army had arrived in the aftermath of the from Moscow’s meddling.
attempted coup, worsened day by day. Moreover,
relations with the United States also faced the dir- Regarding the Turkish middle class, ever esca-
est crisis ever. In fact, Turkey‘s diplomatic relations lating domestic problems, deteriorating human
with basically all its neighbours and beyond hit rock rights conditions, constant reshuffling of the ed-
bottom. Nevertheless, the worst was yet to come. ucation system, as well as growing religious influ-
ence in schools and universities led to an unstop-
pable brain drain. Anjel‘s hopes, like the hopes of
those who remained, vanished. They were not able
to imagine that Turkey could return to its days of
glory any time soon, with a robust economy and an
optimistic future for the young generation, which
made up a huge proportion of Turkey’s population.
While most Turkish citizens already struggled in
2018, many feared 2019 to be the worse, maybe
even the worst in Turkey‘s republican history since
1923, since the country was heading towards a cru-
cial electoral year.
Three elections in a row were held in 2019: the
presidential, the local and the general elections
took place on the same day. Moreover, the citizens
had to cast a fourth ballot in a referendum with
which the government headed to reintroduce the
death penalty. Anjel followed the campaign period.
It was overtly nationalistic and more intense than
At the beginning of 2018, Turkey conducted a com- ever, with rising tensions. She shared the outrage
prehensive military invasion into Syria. The Turkish about the possible reintroduction of capital punish-
armed forces were already weak, destabilized and ment, which had been abolished in 2002 in Turkey.
caught in internal struggles caused by the desertion
and the cleansing following the attempted coup in Eventually, the Justice and Development Party
July 2016. The military operations, planned as a (AKP) results slid down in the general elections and
brief intervention to weaken the Kurdish allies of the party lost major cities in the local ones. Never-
the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Syria, turned theless, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was elected as the
into a bloody military adventure of long duration “first president“ and in the referendum, reintroduc-
with Turkey’s military getting deeper and deeper ing the death penalty was approved. The system
into the quagmire of the Syrian war. was already styled as a rigid presidency through
constitutional amendments since 2016 and the
Meanwhile, foreign investment (which had already election of Erdoğan cemented the transformation
been dropping since 2015) literally collapsed by into a full-fledged authoritarian presidential system.
2018 because of the instability both within and sur-
rounding Turkey. The tourism business, already fac- Already in the dawn of the referendum, the Euro-
ing dire straits, completely flattened due to security pean Commission and individual European coun-
concerns. In this situation Russia sought to bene- tries such as Germany had made clear that the re-
fit from Turkey’s weakness – and it succeeded with introduction of capital punishment would be their
its political manipulations of parts of the society “red line“. Hence, shortly after the 2019 election and
8
A cosmopolitan country that blossomed after tough days
the approval of the legislation of the death penalty people stumbling towards her. This was an old se-
by the president, who bypassed parliament, the EU cret recipe to clean the eyes from the toxic gas
annulled Turkey‘s candidacy for membership. In learned well during the so-called Gezi-protest in
consequence, Turkey‘s economy deteriorated, fu- 2013. But most of the times the demonstrations
elling socio-political polarization. Meanwhile, the Anjel attended remained undisturbed. Severe mea-
brain drain reached an extent that made certain sures by the police had proved to be counterpro-
businesses, especially the health and the IT sectors, ductive and as soon as they were put in action, civil
face a huge lack of labour force. unrest spread through the country. Anjel’s mother
Natali used to say, “If we all stay together as in the
days of Gezi, eventually we will succeed.” In the
drawer of her desk Anjel kept the picture of a lady
dressed in red who opposed the police and the tear-
gas in 2013; Ceyda Sungur was her hero.
In the summer of 2022, Anjel participated in sev-
eral demonstrations. Millions of citizens took to the
streets in Istanbul, Ankara, and in the far east of the
country. They demanded their rights as citizens and
insisted that those held in prison without charges
had to be released. Letters of imprisoned politicians
Rebirth of Turkey - a phoenix from the ashes and journalists circulated, talking about violence
and overcrowded cells.
After the election, Anjel almost lost hope. Her be-
loved brother Hayko was about to leave the coun- Anjel also joined newly created Facebook groups
try. Her sister Anahit and her brother-in-law Abdul- where protest was organized. Somehow it seemed
rahman struggled to feed their children, since both to her like a déjà vu: “It was similar during the
lost their jobs. Even Anjel could barely help her par- Gezi-protests or on Tahrir in Cairo, wasn’t it?” To her
ents to make it until the end of the month. At univer- surprise, the army never showed up at the demon-
sity a class-mate during one of the courses handed strations. Even though Erdoğan called for them sev-
her a flyer: “Let’s overcome the hate,” was written eral times, the generals and soldiers with their tanks
on it. Anjel did not hesitate a minute. She had to join stayed in the barracks, as did police forces.
the group of young people who met once a week in
her neighbourhood. All over the country civic plat- On October 27, 2022, Anjel took a bus to Ankara.
forms started discussing how to resolve the coun- She wanted to join the people calling for resto-
try‘s complex problems. Anjel met Kurds, Turks and ration of rights, freedom, and democracy. The day
young people from other ethnic backgrounds and after, shortly after midnight as October 28 turned
with different opinions. Their search for common into October 29, on the 99th anniversary of the Re-
ground helped to diminish the polarization. Even public, the crowd got so big that it seemed every-
some politicians initiated an exchange of ideas and one was in the streets in major urban centres and
began to cooperate. The high degree of popular rural areas. The massive crowd in Ankara started to
support for this “socio-political rapprochement“ in- cheer and these images were broadcast live all over
dicated how Turkey‘s people from all segments of the world. “Democracy makes a comeback to Tur-
society were tired of polarization. key,” Anjel read the headline of CNN Turk on her
mobile while tears were running down her cheeks.
In the years 2020 to 2022, there were peace- Anjel and the others celebrated until dawn when
ful demonstrations all over the country advocat- she finally managed to call Ayşe in Berlin.
ing democracy, secularism and peace. Anjel took
part in the manifestations in Istanbul. She once ar- Soon after the demonstrations peaked on Octo-
rived when the police dispersed a crowd with tear- ber 29, 2022, general elections were scheduled and
gas. Anjel took out the lemons from her pockets, subsequently held in mid-November. This time a co-
cut them into slices and handed them over to the alition led by a female leader won an overwhelming
9
Young Leaders for Europe | Turkey in 2030
majority in parliament. During her campaign she Anjel felt a new wave of hope. She was already
emphasized the empowered role of women in soci- looking forward to the celebrations of the 100th
ety and tried to ameliorate the highly polarized so- anniversary of the Turkish Republic. People in the
cio-political relations. streets were discussing Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s
ideas, the founder of the republic. These ideas were
Erdoğan went to an undisclosed location in the reinterpreted to proclaim a democratic and sec-
last days of 2022 and vanished from the pub- ular republic. Her friends sent Anjel a t-shirt with
lic eye. Some speculated he was in Malaysia, oth- Atatürk’s portrait from Berlin, en vogue among hip-
ers named Qatar.The “Grand Coalition“ formed by sters in the German capital and with the second and
all the parties represented in parliament – even third generation of Turks in Germany.
the pro-Kurdish party and the Turkish national-
ists – sought to mend social and political cracks Meanwhile, the next big political step was the
and to overcome the deepening tensions and con- preparation of a new constitution: this new consti-
flicts eroding society. One of the first moves by tution would replace the existing one, legislated by
the Grand Coalition was to abolish the recently in- the junta of the 1980 coup. It was an old promise to
troduced death penalty. This move led to a rap- replace the so-called “Coup Constitution“ and now
prochement with the EU and diplomatic relations it gained shape: Anjel, like all Turkish citizens, was
completely frozen for years were reinitiated. In invited to work on the new constitution. On Oc-
general, Turkey sought to improve its relationship tober 29, 2023, she received a letter, asking her to
with the neighbours and the world and assumed a send in her ideas. Assemblies were formed through-
peaceful tone. out the country, where people came together and
10A cosmopolitan country that blossomed after tough days
discussed the constitution during the process of Hayko was one of those who continued their stud-
writing. In 2024, the second civilian constitution of ies in Belgium. With this cultural and scientific ex-
the Republic1 of Turkey was legislated after a popu- change the EU managed to play an important role in
lar referendum, coinciding with the 100th anniver- the Turkish diaspora, a bond of long duration and an
sary of the first constitution of the republic , dating investment in future relations as these immigrants
back from 1924. energized Turkey’s and European countries’ eco-
nomic, social and cultural lives.
The highly participatory way of writing a constitu-
tion made Turkey a role model for other countries Even in times when diplomatic and institutional re-
in transition. In 2030, neighbouring countries looked lations were deteriorating, the EU had not cut its
upon Turkey, which, at a central position at the re- support for new energy projects completely. Anjel‘s
gional trade routes, was prospering as a regional company, one of the pioneers in the field, contin-
energy hub specialized in green energy whereby it ued to send employees to Europe for workshops, ex-
freed itself from Russia‘s grip on oil and gas pipelines. changes and apprenticeships. As soon as the political
turbulences began to calm down, the EU revived its
The EU‘s role in Turkey‘s getting back on track engagement and thereby helped to boost Turkey’s
infrastructure and to reinvigorate Turkey’s economy.
Although relations between the EU and Turkey
had deteriorated and eventually come to a com- The EU succeeded with this strategy because it
plete halt in 2019, European countries had sought managed that all member countries agreed to speak
to keep open informal channels to the opposition with one voice. The crucial point had been Anka-
and to secular Turkish elites. They had also tried to ra’s move to reintroduce the death penalty. On the
support the Turkish diaspora, such as Ayşe and her decline of democratic standards and escalation of
family. Ayşe had quickly found a job at one of Ber- human rights violations, some EU-members had ar-
lin‘s three main universities. There she had met ac- gued that Turkey alone had to deal with its internal
ademic colleagues, who had also left Turkey and troubles and struggles and that these were of no in-
founded an online university in order to teach their terest for Europe. Yet none of the member states
students back in Turkey and to help them finish could turn a blind eye on the death penalty that also
their thesis and take their degrees. Ayşe was happy threatened some EU-citizens imprisoned in Turkey.
to send the information to her friend Anjel in Istan-
bul. Many students there had feared to drop out of Back to the tea-shop with the view on the Sea of
university without the possibility to graduate since Marmara, Anjel leans over the table and whispers
so many professors had left. to Ayşe, “Ne oldum dememeli, ne olacağım demeli,”
meaning, “One should not say ‘What have I be-
The EU tried to fulfil the demand of education by come’, but rather ‘What shall I become’”. This Turk-
creating new scholarships, grants and other types ish proverb had helped her to believe in a demo-
of financial and tangible support. Anjel‘s brother cratic Turkey during the dark times, Anjel admits.
1 In 1921, a constitution was legislated by the Grand National
Assembly, but only the 1924 constitution was the first one after the
proclamation of the republic in 1923.
11Young Leaders for Europe | Turkey in 2030
Turkey in 2030
From ‘zero problems’
to aggressive realpolitik
Tim L. Poppenborg
When in July 2017, Turkey’s President Erdoğan However, repression is just one feature of Erdoğan’s
vowed to “cut off traitors’ heads,” most observ- autocratic toolbox. In 2030, graduates from Istan-
ers wrote his remarks off as fiery rhetoric. After all, bul’s prestigious Boğaziçi University are among the
memories of the failed coup attempt one year ear- first to have progressed fully through Turkey’s re-
lier were still fresh. Now, thirteen years later, the modelled education system. Built around a blend
President’s promises are taken more seriously. of nationalist and conservative Islamic rhetoric,
schooling in Turkey seeks to educate youth in line
In 2030, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has an ironclad grip with the AKP’s beliefs and values. Once mocked by
on Turkish society. Elections are still being held international pundits for calling the theory of evo-
but function as mere window dressing. Behind the lution into question, Turkey’s education system has
scenes, Berat Albayrak, Erdoğan’s charismatic son- since developed into a powerful instrument as – de-
in-law, is being prepared to assume power once the scribed by a Turkish proverb – “trees are bent when
76-year old President decides to step down. Much they are young”. Domestically, Erdoğan’s largest
concern is the economy. After the EU suspended
the customs union with Turkey in 2023, Turkey’s
economy struggled to open up new export markets.
Subsequent state bailouts have plunged the coun-
try into serious debt.
Abroad, Erdoğan’s Turkey has developed into an ag-
gressive actor. The lessons of Ahmet Davutoğlu, ar-
chitect of the AKP’s initial foreign policy and former
prime minister, are forgotten. He had envisioned a
Turkey using its “strategic depth” – its fortunate
geostrategic position between Europe, the Cau-
casus and the Middle East, as well as its historical
and cultural ties in the region rooted in centuries
of Ottoman rule – to create a cooperative envi-
ronment where “zero problems with neighbours”
would allow Turkey to prosper. In 2030, Erdoğan
opposition is not expected. After 28 years of AKP- ruthlessly exploits Turkey’s “strategic depth” to gain
rule, the economic elites have rallied behind Er- leverage over his perceived enemies.
doğan, using their vast influence over what is left
of Turkey’s privately-owned media in his support. In the West, Turkey seeks to undermine the acces-
Whoever still voices dissent is easily charged on the sion efforts of countries in the Western Balkans and
grounds of supporting terrorism, an offence that destabilise existing EU member states. In some Eu-
now carries with it the risk of capital punishment. ropean countries, Turkey’s ever-growing network
12From ‘zero problems’ to aggressive realpolitik
of schools, universities and media outlets is seen seeks to square the circle. On the one hand, Tur-
as a threat to stability, as the Turkish government key has found common ground with the Shia-dom-
uses its influence to fuel ethnic tensions and exac- inated governments of Iraq and Iran, which each
erbate political unrest. In Bulgaria, for example, a host Kurdish minorities and are also trying to curb
decade ago most of its sizable Turkish minority was their efforts for greater autonomy or even state-
overwhelmingly opposed to Erdoğan’s rule. Now, hood. On the other hand, Turkey is committed to
AKP-sponsored parties in Bulgaria are on the rise. deepening economic relations with the majority
Even more troubling for the EU, some strongmen Sunni GCC-states, especially Saudi Arabia. As the
in the Western Balkans have abandoned fears of Saudi government is managing an unprecedented
“neo-Ottomanism” and openly embrace Erdoğan’s economic transition, attempting to wean the coun-
style of governing, viewing it as a new model of try off its dependence on oil and gas revenue, Turk-
pseudo-democratic rule that conveniently fills the ish firms hope to integrate more closely with Saudi
coffers of those in power. Arabia’s supply chains.
In the East, Turkey is engaged in a massive military In sum, Turkey’s domestic development has followed
campaign against various Kurdish forces. Dividing a linear path towards increased authoritarianism and
lines between the two main Kurdish actors, the Tur- kleptocracy. However, to secure support at home,
key-based PKK and the Syrian-based YPG, remain Erdoğan’s government has developed an ever-more
murky; a fact that Turkey regularly exploits to jus- aggressive posture abroad, attempting to strong-arm
tify incursions into Syrian and Iraqi territory. Inter- the EU by manipulating diaspora-relations and fur-
national NGOs and UN bodies have accused Turk- ther polarising Turkish society through a brutal mili-
ish forces of gross human rights violations, a fact tary campaign against its Kurdish minority. How did
that has severely increased tensions between Tur- the parties involved get this far?
key and its NATO partners. In retaliation, Kurd-
ish commandos have committed horrific terror at- November 5, 2023 – Cologne, Germany
tacks right in the heart of Turkey’s bustling cities.
The conflict has also had tremendous repercussions “Not again, not again,” Serhat muttered, hastily walk-
among the Turkish diaspora in Western Europe. Vi- ing down Keupstraße in Cologne’s Mülheim neigh-
olent elements among Kurdish and Turkish minori- bourhood. Earlier that morning, he had woken up to
ties clash on a daily basis, especially in Germany, a a notification from TurkApp, a state-sponsored en-
country Erdoğan has long accused of offering a safe tertainment and news application: “Breaking news:
haven for PKK fighters. In the Middle East, Turkey Turkish stores set ablaze across German cities,”
13Young Leaders for Europe | Turkey in 2030
it read. So far Serhat’s shop had been spared the As Serhat closed in on his shop in Keupstraße, the
Molotov cocktails, but this month alone the large man who had been shouting approached him. “Mer-
windows had been smashed twice. Had the new haba brother,” he said, “is this your shop?” “Yes,” an-
steel shutters prevented the worst? His thoughts swered Serhat. “Have you signed up to the local
were interrupted by sudden commotion further up group?”, the man asked. At once, Serhat realised
the road. “Next time, I’ll knock your teeth out,” a what this conversation was about and mumbled an
man shouted at a group of masked people waving excuse. The man belonged to the so-called ‘self-de-
the Kurdish flag. fence’ groups, which had crept up all over Germany’s
bigger cities. To the public, these groups presented
themselves as protectors of Turkish communities
and their property. In reality, they formed biker
gangs that – many rumoured – had been infiltrated
by the Turkish intelligence service MIT to spy on dis-
sidents and alleged PKK-members. Serhat tried to
steer clear of such groups, but for people like him
who showed little interest in politics and had Kurd-
ish friends, life was becoming increasingly difficult.
How had everything turned so toxic, so fast? A fea-
ture in a German newspaper Serhat sold in his shop
argued that the events in 2018 and 2019 had been
a turning point. In 2018, the first dozen EU citizens
held in pre-trial detention in Turkey were charged
and convicted, with some courts handing down
long prison sentences. The images of crying chil-
dren losing their mothers or fathers on the grounds
Relations had been slowly deteriorating between of what appeared to be fabricated charges deep-
the Turkish and Kurdish communities living in Ger- ened anti-Turkish sentiment among European pop-
many for a while, but the last few days had been a ulations. At the same time, Kurdish forces exploited
complete nightmare. The clashes had started one the power vacuum created by the collapse of ”IS” to
week earlier, on the day of the centenary of the swiftly expand their territorial control in Syria. Tur-
Turkish Republic. Citing security concerns, the city key reacted by sending more troops into the coun-
council had long opposed the public celebrations. try and launching a new aerial campaign against
However, confronted with a hugely controversial PKK positions in Turkey, which were vital for the
debate about freedom of speech and expression, transport of supplies to its Syrian counterpart, the
the council begrudgingly sanctioned the event. The YPG. This, in turn, prompted a surge in Kurdish ter-
authorities could not have known that on the eve ror attacks against civilians in Turkish cities. How-
of the centennial festivities, Erdoğan would launch ever, not all Kurdish plots were successful. When
his largest military campaign against Kurdish po- in September 2019 a group of alleged PKK con-
sitions to date. Despite hopes that the celebra- spirators was arrested in Istanbul, voices demand-
tions at home and abroad would cover up the scale ing the reinstatement of capital punishment grew
of the operation, rumours about a shocking death louder. Erdoğan saw a chance to further cement his
toll among civilians in Eastern Turkey and North- support ahead of the parliamentary and presiden-
ern Syria spread rapidly among the population. tial elections in November 2019 and vowed to have
The next day in Cologne, just as the first speaker the death penalty reinstated by parliament if voters
walked up to the podium, Kurdish activists broke trusted in his leadership yet again. The parting Pres-
through the barricades. The ensuing clashes left ap- ident of the European Commission, Jean-Claude
proximately 500 people injured, many of them chil- Juncker, reiterated his warning that this would be
dren caught up between both sides. In the follow- the “reddest of all red lines” for the already stalled
ing week, parts of Cologne and other German cities accession talks. The warnings were ignored. The
became battlefields. AKP won an absolute majority in parliament as well
14From ‘zero problems’ to aggressive realpolitik
as the presidency and, as promised, capital punish- the roof. It was certainly not the first ambush Leyla
ment was reintroduced just a few weeks later. As a had orchestrated. At just 20 years old, she had al-
result of this, EU leaders agreed to terminate the ready been on the frontlines for nearly two years.
accession talks at the following summit. Like so many others, Leyla had joined the Kurdish
militia after the Turkish military campaign of 2023.
On TurkApp, the story read a little differently. It In hindsight, observers agreed that the cause for
was the fault of the EU, an organisation which was the new conflict lay in the failed federalisation
not prepared to admit a strong, independent Tur- process in Syria. A peace agreement between the
key to its racist and elitist club of nations. Ger- Assad government and the remaining warring fac-
many and its alleged PKK sympathis- tions concluded in 2021 set out a road-
ers carried the brunt of the blame. map for the gradual federalisation
Serhat found the news on Tur- of the war-torn country. At the
kApp to be not particularly time, Cem Özdemir, then Ger-
trustworthy. However, they man foreign minister, called
had some good TV shows the accord “a milestone in
– the one about Sultan Sü- ending the Syrian conflict
leyman the Magnificent and a stepping stone to
and his wife, for exam- more comprehensive ne-
ple. In fact, Serhat found gotiations to solve the re-
Muhteşem Yüzyıl, a similar gion’s most pressing security
series back from 2014, more issues.” However, the borders
entertaining. Despite its focus of the new federal regions of
on Ottoman rule, it had been a Syria remained a thorny issue. Nei-
huge success in the Balkans and the ther the Assad government nor many
Arab world. However, the tale of a slave- Arab inhabitants of Northern Syria wanted
girl turned Sultana was deemed too “indecent” and the Kurds to rule all the provinces that they consid-
“disrespectful” by AKP officials. The 2023 version ered part of their Rojava region. After two years of
corrected these “mistakes”. fruitless negotiations, Syrian Kurds reportedly en-
croached on territory to the West of the town Man-
bij. The Turkish government seized the opportunity,
declaring the Kurds actions as a breach of the peace
agreement and a reason to intervene. Within days,
aerial bombardments and shelling along the Turk-
ish-Syrian border claimed the lives of hundreds of
combatants and civilians. Furious at the prospect
of Erdoğan having single-handedly undone one of
the greatest diplomatic achievements of recent his-
tory and amid a rising death toll, EU leaders threat-
ened to suspend the customs union. Most remained
confident that a mix of economic threats and back-
door negotiations would stop the violence. How-
ever, the Turkish government called the bluff – or
May 12, 2025 – Kobane, Syria so it thought. The massive military operations that
began during the centennial celebrations in Octo-
“That was close!” Leyla screeched in disbelief. She ber 2023 fostered the belief among EU leaders that
and her comrades had fired three missiles at a Turk- a strong signal had to be sent. Citing humanitarian
ish tank trapped in a courtyard full of rubble, but concerns and faced with the possibility of another
none would penetrate its protective armour. When large-scale migrant crisis, EU member states agreed
the tank’s turret turned in their direction, Leyla and to suspend the customs union until Turkey, a sig-
the other YPG fighters scrambled, sprinting out of natory to the 2021 peace agreement, returned to
their hideout just before the tank’s shell pulverised honouring the accord’s terms.
15Young Leaders for Europe | Turkey in 2030
“How many do we have left?” Leyla asked her ised a range of new, comprehensive trade deals
local commander. “The anti-tank missiles?” he re- that would boost investments and lure in new cap-
sponded, “just a few dozen more”. The situation ital. Indeed, just one year earlier, in 2026, King Mu-
was becoming increasingly desperate for the YPG hammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia had visited Er-
forces. Medical supplies had not been so scarce doğan in Ankara to celebrate the conclusion of a
since the beginning stages of the fights against “IS” new trade agreement. The SAMI factory was one
and the Americans had not delivered any heavy of the first investments to materialise. For Turkey,
weaponry since the peace accord four years earlier. the deal offered a chance of becoming closely inte-
What was left was not of much use anyway. When grated with Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification
the German Bundestag rejected the export of its efforts that formed an integral part of the so-called
latest main battle tank to Turkey, Erdoğan turned to Vision 2030. For Saudi Arabia, the primary goal was
Russia. Just a few weeks ago the first T14 Armata to curb the influence of Iran, which – after the sus-
tanks had rolled across the border into Syria. “We pension of the customs union – became one of Tur-
fight Turkey, a NATO state, with American missiles, key’s top five trading partners.
while Turkey fights us with Russian tanks,” Leyla
jokingly pointed out as she was being interviewed As the bus pulled up to the factory entrance, Umut
by a Western reporter. Laughing away the suffer- was startled to see so many people line up at the
ing, putting on a tough face – Leyla had learned guard post. Of course, security measures were
what Western media liked to see. To them, a female tough, but ID checks were done electronically and
fighter still conjured up the image of an exotic war- usually did not take longer than a few seconds.
rior. But if it helped gain attention, she figured, it Umut approached one of his co-workers: “What’s
was worth it. going on, Mustafa, why are the guards not letting
us in?” “I don’t know, a guy told me that there was
July 7, 2027 – Bursa, Turkey some incident at the nuclear plant in Akkuyu. Made
the Saudis all nervous. They are keeping the fac-
Still tired from his last shift, Umut boarded the bus tory closed until they figure out what happened.”
to the factory of Saudi Arabian Military Industries “What, do you think it was a terror attack?” Umut
(SAMI), the kingdom’s new arms manufacturer. As- speculated.
sembling doors for armoured vehicles was not a
job he particularly enjoyed, but after European car For hours, different rumours chimed onto the work-
manufacturers had pulled out of Bursa, his home- ers’ phones. Everybody knew that the Akkuyu nu-
town and the heart of Turkey’s automotive industry, clear plant had been a controversial subject. Con-
industrial jobs became scarce. For decades, compa- structed by the Russian state corporation Rosatom
nies such as Renault and Fiat had manufactured en- and finished in 2023, just on time for the centen-
gines and car parts in Bursa, making Turkey the 5th nial celebrations, Akkuyu was the first nuclear fa-
largest producer in Europe. However, with the ex- cility to start operating in Turkey. Back in 2017, the
ponential growth in sales of electric cars and the European Parliament had issued a warning, pointing
suspension of the customs union in 2023, tradi- to the risk of earthquakes in Turkey. But the Turkish
tional supply chains were disrupted and thousands government had brushed such concerns aside. After
of jobs relocated to countries with better access to all, Akkuyu was located right on the Mediterranean
the European single market. Similarly, with tariffs coast in one of Turkey’s least active seismic regions.
reinstated, Turkey’s massive consumer electronics
manufacturers struggled to remain competitive. “No attack,” Mustafa exclaimed. “So, what’s the
problem?” Umut responded. The problem, it now
As Umut looked out of the window, he could see emerged, was indeed an earthquake. Not on the
the first signs of rust gnawing on the old metal mainland, but off the coast between Crete and Cy-
factory halls. Entire sections of Bursa’s industrial prus. The seismic shock created a tsunami wave that
zone seemed abandoned. But there was at least reached the Akkuyu power plant early in the morn-
some hope. Along with his vows to make Turkey a ing, swept over the facility’s wave-breakers and
more powerful, autonomous nation and leader in a seeped into the plant’s reactor halls. As opposed
more assertive Muslim world, Erdoğan had prom- to the incident at Fukushima Daiichi in Japan, the
16From ‘zero problems’ to aggressive realpolitik
emergency shutdown was successful as the reactor’s the Kurdish conflict escalates, the Turkish opposi-
cooling system remained intact. However, the plant tion is effectively stifled and Turkey’s economy se-
was severely damaged and many regions in Turkey verely disrupted. What can be done to prevent this
experienced power cuts. In the following weeks, scenario from materialising? The participants of the
the broader ramifications of the tsunami dominated workshop proposed a multidimensional approach.
the headlines. Hundreds of families along the coast
had lost their homes and a significant degree of Tur- Given the electoral success the Erdoğan-adminis-
key’s tourism infrastructure was devastated. Polit- tration has enjoyed by actively polarising Turkish
ically, the subsequent relief efforts were a PR win society, it will be difficult to ensure that the AKP-
for Erdoğan. But the succession timetable was seri- led government in Turkey renews its commitment
ously delayed. After all, the Akkuyu plant had been to democracy, political freedoms and pluralism. This
built under the supervision of the envisioned suc- is exacerbated by the fact that the EU’s primary tool
cessor Berat Albayrak, then energy minister. to influence domestic developments, the condition-
ality criteria embedded in the accession process,
Turkey 2030 – How to Prevent this Scenario? seems to have lost its teeth. No doubt, where EU
citizens’ rights are seriously impeded and non-ne-
While the above accounts are presently mere fic- gotiable accession requirements violated, a uni-
tion, they are an extrapolation of current events fied and carefully calibrated European response is
and trends. The accounts highlight that, with re- required. This could involve cuts to pre-accession
gard to Turkey and its impact on the EU’s neigh- aid, but any punitive response should be tied to re-
bourhood, domestic, regional and global factors are newed offers for dialogue. Moreover, as the breath-
closely intertwined and interactive in nature. In this ing room for civil society in Turkey is shrinking
scenario, structural factors and a fateful series of and the government is encroaching on the educa-
events create a situation where the relationship be- tion system, mobility and interpersonal contact will
tween Turkey and the EU as well as NATO reach a become even more important. While visa liberalisa-
historical low-point, Southeastern European states tion is off the table for now, mobility within existing
become the stage upon which pro-EU and pro-Turk- programs, such as Erasmus+, should be maintained
ish actors fiercely compete for political influence, and actively encouraged.
17Young Leaders for Europe | Turkey in 2030
With regard to Turkey’s Western neighbours, it is
clear that the Western Balkans can no longer re-
main Europe’s blind spot. Turkey – as well as Rus-
sia – can wield significant influence in this region.
Participants across the board agreed that the EU’s
pre-accession aid should be ramped up consider-
ably while maintaining strict conditionality crite-
ria. Stronger socio-economic convergence is also
in the interest of the EU as in most member states
the public mood is less enthusiastic about admitting
new countries for fear of large-scale labour migra-
tion. However, the election of EU-sceptic govern-
ments in Hungary and Poland as well as the cor-
ruption scandal surrounding the pro-EU governing
coalition in Moldova demonstrate that, for multi-
ple reasons, the EU’s pull towards closer integration
or even accession cannot be based on the attitudes
and calculations of political elites alone. The EU
should double down on its efforts to strategically
communicate to the general population the bene-
fits of EU membership but also the values it is based
upon and the mutual responsibilities it entails.
Concerning Turkey’s southern neighbours, this sce-
nario report has illustrated the dangers of an esca-
lating conflict with the region’s Kurdish population.
There is no solution to the Syrian conflict that nei-
ther satisfies the Kurds’ demands for greater auton-
omy nor addresses Turkish concerns over a Kurd-
ish quasi-state on its southern border. Since efforts
to end the Syrian civil war would bring together the
main parties to the conflict – the Assad govern-
ment, the opposition, all regional powers, as well as
the EU, Russia and the US – the necessary, albeit
difficult, task of reaching a peace agreement in Syria
should be viewed as a unique opportunity. These
negotiations could form the nucleus for a perpet-
ual format that addresses the region’s broader se-
curity challenges but, akin to the Conference for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), is com-
plemented by a second track. Here, leaders would
negotiate pragmatic, socio-economic issues where
regional powers can achieve “win-win solutions” presidential system revealed the strong support the
more easily and, thus, build confidence. So long as Erdoğan administration enjoys among Western Eu-
they are not a response to deteriorating relations ropean citizens of Turkish descent. In the EU mem-
between the EU and Turkey, deeper trade relations ber states of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France,
between Turkey and the GCC-states, as illustrated Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, a ma-
in this report, should be worth encouraging. jority of eligible voters opted for the constitutional
change proposed by Erdoğan. In fact, the majorities
Finally, with regards to diaspora relations, the re- were far greater than in Turkey itself. First and fore-
cent Turkish referendum about the adoption of the most, Europeans should view this a legitimate ex-
18From ‘zero problems’ to aggressive realpolitik
pression of Turkish voters’ intentions, not as a “test influence of foreign media and Turkish clerics. The
of loyalty” to their European home countries. At strong within-country variance of the referendum
the same time, the question why so many Europe- results (e.g. Berlin 50.1 % yes votes vs. Essen 75.1
ans of Turkish heritage support an increasingly au- % yes votes) illustrates the need for a local approach
thoritarian government while enjoying the freedoms that focusses on listening to communities’ concerns.
of their liberal host countries should be carefully in-
vestigated. Most likely the answer will be multifac-
eted and complex, ranging from failed integration
The author would like to thank the participants
policies to discrimination and marginalisation to the of the working group for their excellent contributions.
19Young Leaders for Europe | Russia in 2030
Russia in 2030
The neighbourhood bully –
pure self-defence?
Lukasz Wenerski
After eighteen consecutive years as president, Vlad- But the outgoing president is leaving as his coun-
imir Putin has finally decided to step down. In 2030, try is being plunged into crisis. He has failed to
at 78, he does not see himself running for another modernize the economy. The system based on the
re-election. Legally it would still be possible, as the sale of energy resources as a main input to the na-
amendment introduced to the Constitution of the tional budget has been exhausted. Increased com-
Russian Federation in 2022 extended the limits of petition from American shale gas and continued
the presidency to five consecutive terms. Vladi- tensions between Russia and the European Union
mir Putin, however, has other plans. His successor, has resulted in a substantial decrease of Europe‘s
Mikhail Suvorov, the 40-year-old minister of infra- dependence on Russia as an energy supplier, and
structure, will take control of the country, provide long-lasting low prices of oil and gas have made an
Putin a safe retirement, and secure that Putin’s “well- already limited energy income even smaller. A con-
deserved” place in Russia’s history is not taken away. siderable shrinkage of the national budget was in-
Although the election is still two months away, no evitable. Simultaneously, new ideas for getting the
one doubts Suvorov’s victory in the first round. After economy back on track, such as “Road to A I Russia,”
a 2020 programme aimed at making Russia a global
leader on the artificial intelligence market, were
never successfully implemented. The ruling elite,
while trying to change the economy, was not capa-
ble of moving beyond the interest of enriching itself
via corruption schemes, consequently toppling any
modernization efforts.
As a consequence, the Russian economy has be-
come stagnant, its annual growth fluctuating be-
tween -2% to 1%. Unemployment in the working
population has maintained a fairly safe level of 5%,
but the real household income (in PPP) has been in
decline continuously for over a decade. The num-
ber of people living below the poverty line has dou-
bled since 2012.
all, the “tsar” himself, as foreign newspapers named
Putin long ago, declared him the best possible candi- But many Russians have found no blame with Putin
date. Putin’s will still remains the highest command for this situation. State-controlled television and
for many Russians. Numerous years in power have internet have been very efficient in directing peo-
not eroded the general support for him; recent poll- ple’s attention away from the real issues, channel-
sters show that 82% of Russians continue to see him ling their gaze toward fictitious successes, and con-
as a positive figure, a great leader of the nation. vincing them that all problems are due to aggressive
20The neighbourhood bully – pure self-defence?
attacks against Russia by the enemy forces of the reaction of the EU was feeble, limited to a writ-
USA, the EU or China, against which Russia must al- ten declaration of its condemnation of Russia’s ac-
ways defend itself quickly and decisively. tions; the USA decided to send lethal weapons to
the Ukrainians. When the 2018 FIFA World Cup
The gambit of changing the mechanism of legitimi- kicked off in early June, the new line of conflict had
zation of Putin and the ruling elite from internal sit- stabilized, but battlefield fights were still ongoing.
uation to external politics, as the economy got into
stagnation, was introduced full-scale by Russia in
2014 with the annexation of Crimea and war in Don-
bas and has been exploited since. The Second Don-
bas War (2018), the militarization of Belarus (2026)
and the intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina
(2028) – all these events were presented to the Rus-
sian people as a reaction to an existential threat im-
posed on Russia by NATO or other actors and as the
next natural step to returning to its former glorious
empire. The same happened with the third Chechen
war in 2024 .This internal conflict, which ignited be-
cause Russian authorities were not able to effec-
tively address the problem of rising radicalization of
young people in Dagestan and Chechnya, was ad-
dressed in the Russian media as conceived, arranged,
and executed by external forces, namely the peo-
ple acting under the command of Brussels and the
White House.
The process of Russia slipping into economic degra-
dation and becoming a regular neighbourhood bully
has been developing gradually for almost two de- None of the teams that had qualified for the FIFA
cades (2014-2030) and many events contributed to games contested it, but the fans held a different po-
it, such as, among others, those described below. sition. According to preliminary statistics released
by FIFA, only 15% of the estimated number of tour-
Kaliningrad, Russian Federation, June 2018 ists had actually visited Russia during the world cup
group stage.
“Last time they at least waited until Sochi was over!”
Dmitry Vasiliev, outraged bar owner at Pobeda The aggression against Ukraine started only two
square in Kaliningrad, seemed to be shouting at months after the Russian presidential election, and
the Deutsche Welle journalist. “I don’t know what what happened during and after the election is
to think about it. Are these new ‘interventions’ or now widely seen as a direct trigger to the new war
whatever you call it in Ukraine necessary? I mean against Kyiv. Putin won the presidential run in the
everyone knows it’s us this time, right? If they had first round, Ksenia Sobchak finished second, and
only waited until the games were over. They scared Alexei Navalny was eventually denied the right to
all the tourists. I really invested a lot of money to participate in the election. Post-election reports of
renovate this place. You know, Brazil and Germany independent observers were unambiguous: if not
playing their games in Kaliningrad! I was already for the widespread falsification, Putin would not
counting the roubles and euros I was going to get have won in the first round, but rather would have
from all those Germans drinking beer in my bar”. had to participate in the second against Ksenia Sob-
chak. After the official announcement of the flawed
In early May 2018, Russia started a military offen- results, Sobchak and Navalny acted quickly. Their
sive in Ukraine, quickly overtaking some new ter- un-official alliance, formed when Navalny was re-
ritories, including the port city of Mariupol. The fused the possibility to participate in the election,
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