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South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 1 of 9

Sanctions & Terrorism: No comprehensive
 South Africa sanctions against the country, though some
 individuals and companies have been
 1. Executive Summary designated. In 2019, for proliferation, Tier 1 PPI
 (Proliferation) Index country, with a “Moderate”
Grey Lists: South Africa is not listed by the US
 response score of 749/1,300; GTI give South
as a “Country of Primary Concern” in respect of
 Africa a “Medium” impact (score 4,511/10).
ML & FC, or listed by FATF or the EU, on their
 South Africa is included in US Country Reports
“Grey” lists.
 on Terrorism.
NRA: South Africa has not yet published its
 Response & Resilience: South Africa is
National Risk Assessment.
 currently under FATF MER 4th round by
Organised Crime: According to the OC Index, ESAAMLG and the report is due in 2020. The
High Criminality - High Resilience. Criminality OC Index scores South Africa 5.58/10 for
6.17/10, (ranked 10th of 54 African countries resilience (High), ranked 9/54 for Africa, and
and 1st of 13 Southern African countries). Main 3/13 for Southern Africa.
markets are illegal mining (8/10), wildlife
 Indices: The 2019 Freedom in the World
crime & illegal fi shing (7.5/10), drugs (heroin
 report - score of 79/100 - and rated “free”.
& synthetic drugs) (7/10), & arms traffi cking
 South Africa’s Economic Freedom Index score
(7/10). The main “Criminal Actors” are “State
 is 58.8 (Heritage Foundation) making its
Embedded Actors” (7.5/10), “Foreign
 economy one described as “mostly unfree”.
Actors” (7.5/10), “Criminal Networks” (7/10),
 The Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance
and “Mafi a Style Groups” (6.5/10).
 (IIAG) scored South Africa at 68/100, and
Corruption: TI CPI - 2019 - ranked 70/180, described it as “Bouncing Back.” The Basel
with a score of 44/100, a negligible AML Index 2019 ranked South Africa 84 out of
improvement from 2018, with a rank of 73/180 125 countries, with a score of 4.83/10.
and a score of 43/100. However, the 2019
 Overall Ratings: South Africa is rated overall
TRACE Bribery Risk Matrix shows improvement
 4th lowest risk out of 10 Southern African
to “Medium” risk with a score of 42, ranked
 countries, and 7th lowest risk out of 40 in Sub-
55/200.
 Saharan Africa, with a score of 60/100, made
Modern Slavery: US Traffi cking in Persons: up of 41/100 for Threats and 78/100 for
was Tier 2 (Watchlist), upgraded to Tier 2 in the Responses.
2020 US TIP report. The 2018 GSI Index: 47/51
African countries, 155,000 modern day slaves,
 FCN Rating:”Low - Moderate” Risk
incidence of 2.8/1000 people. SA has a rating
 60/100
of “B” response, equal highest rating in Africa.

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2. Country Information
People & Geography: South Africa is US$95 billion of gold, diamonds, platinum,
described as the “rainbow nation” due to the other metals and minerals, machinery &
country’s post-apartheid multicultural diversity. equipment to China (9.5%), US (7.7%),
The capitals of South Africa are Pretoria Germany (7.1%), Japan (4.7%), India (4.6%),
(administrative), Cape Town (legislative), and Botswana (4.3%) & Namibia (4.1%) - 2017.
Bloemfontein (judicial). South Africa has a Imports: US$89 billion of machinery &
population of 56.4 million (July 2020 equipment, chemicals, petroleum products,
expected), with approximately 66.7% in urban scientific instruments, foodstuffs from China
areas. Migration statistics show that 4.2 million (18.3%), Germany (11.9%) & US$ (6.6%) - 2017.
migrants arrived in 2019, and 824,600
emigrated. Environment: According to the Environmental
 Performance Index 2018, South Africa scores
Recent History & Leadership: South Africa 44.73/100 and is ranked 142/180 countries.
held its fi rst free multi-racial elections in 1994 South Africa boasts a rich diversity in wildlife,
following the end of apartheid. The majority marine life and plants, and is ranked third out
rule under the African National Congress of the worlds “megadiverse” countries
(ANC) government has since 1994 struggled to
address apartheid era imbalances in many Tourism: Travel and tourism in South Africa
areas such as wealth, housing, education and generated US$24.6 billion in 2019 employing
healthcare. Jacob Zuma, who previously held 1.48 million people (9.1%) and representing
senior positions in intelligence in the ANC, 7% of South African GDP. Domestic spending
became president in 2009. Zuma was plagued on tourism and travel stood at 55% while
by allegations of corruption and other international spending was 45%. Main tourists
scandals during his two terms in office and come in from Zimbabwe (20%), Lesotho (17%),
resigned in February 2018 under pressure Mozambique (13%) Eswatini (9%) & Botswana
from his own party. Zuma’s successor, Cyril (7%), with outbound tourists going to
Ramaphosa (the ANC’s chief negotiator during Mozambique (21%), Lesotho (13%), Botswana
South Africa’s transition to democracy and the (10%), Eswatini (9%) & Zimbabwe (7%).
former deputy president from 2014) became
the president, promising a “new dawn” of Finance: South Africa's fi nancial services
reforms, economic growth and the fight sector is the largest in SSA, with 5 of the top 10
against corruption. After general elections Banks from South Africa with a well developed
were held in 2019, Ramaphosa was elected as and advanced regulatory and legal framework.
president for his first full term. Ramaphosa In South Africa, 67% (people aged over 15)
also became the Chairperson of the African have bank accounts, 8.9% have a credit card,
Union in 2020. 19% have a mobile money account, 91% make
 online payments, internet penetration is at 62%
Economy & Trade: In 2017 the GDP of via 36.54 million internet users and 103.5
South Africa was US$349 billion, with govt million mobile connections or 176% of the
revenues of US$92.8 billion, and 16.6% of population. Remittances from overseas in 2017
citizens living below the poverty line. were approx US$765 million (0.2% of GDP),
Agriculture represents by output (2.8%), according to the World Bank.
Industry (30%), & Services (67.5%). Exports:

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3. Country Ratings
Available information from leading sources produce almost 60 ratings for South Africa, covering
both threats and responses in fighting financial crime, sanctions, proliferation finance, terrorism &
terrorism finance.
 Source South Africa Source South Africa Source South Africa 

 World Economic Forum 40.7 / 100 Transparency International (TI) 44 / 100 Proliferation Index - PPI Tier 1
 Organised Crime Index* Corruption Perceptions Index* Threat Highest Threat Level

 OC Index 6.17/10 TI & Afrobarometer 19% Proliferation Index - PPI 749 / 1300
 Criminality* Citizens Views and Experiences of Corruption paid bribes in last 12 months to police Controls* Moderate Controls score
 Report

 OC Index 7.13/10 TRACE 42/100 Global Terrorism Index 4.51/10
 Criminal Actors Bribery Risk Matrix GTI - Impact* “Medium” Impact

 OC Index 7.5/10 Global Slavery Index 2.8/1,000 US Dept of State Yes
 State Embedded Actors GSI Incidence* Incidence of human trafficking Country Reports on Terrorism*

 OC Index 7/10 Global Slavery Index 155,000 Global Cybersecurity Index O.652/1
 Criminal Networks No of estimated Modern Day Slaves Est numbers of modern day slaves 2018 (56/152 globally & 4/42 regionally)

 OC Index 7.5/10 Global Slavery Index “B” Rating Mo Ibrahim Governance Index 68/100
 Foreign Actors Country Response Rating* (Ratings: AAA, AA, A etc) (49.9 - All Africa)* 7/54 African Countries “Bouncing
 Back”

 OC Index 6.5/10 US Dept of Labor N/A Freedom House 79/100
 Mafia Style Gangs Child Labour Freedom Index* “free”

 OC Index Synthetic’s & Heroin (7/10) US Dept of State Tier 2 Rated Heritage Foundation 58.8/100
 Cannabis & Cocaine (3/10)
 Drugs Trafficking Trafficking in Persons* (2020) Economic Freedom Index “Mostly Unfree”

 OC Index 7/10 IOM Migration I - 4.2 million/E - 824,600 Basel AML Index* 4.83/10
 Arms Trafficking E - Emigration / I - Immigration

 OC Index 4/10 Illegal Unreported and Unregulated 2.43/5 FIU Egmont Yes
 People Smuggling (IUU) - IUU Fishing Index Member

 OC Index 3.5/10 EU Listing of Countries for Illegal Not Included Interpol Yes
 Human Trafficking Fishing Member

 OC Index 2/10 US DoS - Wildlife Trafficking Focus Asset Confiscations US$374 million in 2019
 Illegal Timber Focus / Countries of Concern* over 1% of Proceeds* Above estimated 1% of CP

 OC Index 7.5/10 Environment Performance Index 44.73/100 Country National Risk Assessment* No
 Illegal Wildlife 142/180 (Expected in 2020)

 OC Index 8/10 EUIPO & OECD Counterfeit Goods 0.123 Financial Information Sharing Yes
 Illegal Mining Propensity of Exports (2016) Partnership

 OC Index 5.58/10 Tax Justice Network 56 US Dept of State No
 Resilience* Financial Secrecy Index (58th out of 133) INCSR Vol I & Vol II*

 OC Index 6/10 EU List of None Co operative Not Included European Union List* No
 AML Jurisdictions for Tax purposes

 OC Index 6/10
 OECD - Global Forum Compliant FATF Standards Not Yet Available
 Law Enforcement on Transparency & Exchange Info for Tax Purposes 40 Recommendations*

 OC Index 5.5/10 Global Financial Integrity US$10 billion - 18% FATF Standards Not Yet Available
 International Co- operation Illicit Financial Flows* (2017) 11 IO’s on Effectiveness*

 OC Index 6.5/10 Embassy’s from N Korea, Syria, Iran Embassies of Iran, Syria, Cuba & FATF Standards Not Yet Available
 Economic Regulatory Environment or Cuba North Korea Core 10 Recommendations

 Illegal Drug Dependency / Disorders 537,000 / 0.92% Embargoes - Country Sanctions None FATF Standards Not Yet Available
 Number/Share (Comprehensive - UN, US, EU, UK) Core 4 IO’s on Effectiveness

 Numbeo Crime Survey 2020 77.49 OFAC Listed Parties 15 Local Adresses FATF No
 with Local Addresses Counter - Measures
 Strategic Deficiencies List*

 * Symbol Indicates the information is included in the FCN Country Index

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4. Financial Crime News (FCN) Country Ratings
From all the available information collected and results summarised in Section 3 above, 20 plus
ratings have been selected, covering a broad base of threats and responses in fighting financial
crime, sanctions, proliferation finance and terrorism & terrorism finance. The Results make up the
FCN Country Threat / Response & Overall Risk scores and rankings for Countries in Sub Saharan
Africa.

 FCN SSA Country Risk Rating - Threats by FCN - FCN SSA Country Risk Rating - Response by FCN - 

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 FCN Final Ratings - South Africa 
 Financial Crime News 41/100 Financial Crime News “Low - Moderate” Risk - 60/100
 Threat Rating “Moderate - High” Threat Financial Crime Rating 7/40 SSA - 4/10 SA

 Financial Crime News 78/100 Trend Improving
 Response Rating “Very High” Response (TI CPI, Mo Ibrahim, FATF, Basel Index & GTI - 3-5 years)

Ratings across Sub Saharan Africa, compared to other Countries:

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5. Supplemental Information
From the available information, a number of indicators can be tracked over time to identify trends.
A number of these indicators are identified below together with additional charts used in the Long
Form “Deep Dive” Country Threat Assessment for South Africa, available from Financial Crime
News/Premium.

 The Authors of this work are John Cusack & Ursula M’Crystal. The Editor is John Cusack, the publisher is Financial Crime News / Metriqa Limited. All rights remain with

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