"South-South cooperation for trade, investment and structural transformation" - 66th TDB UNCTAD session
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66th TDB UNCTAD session
“South-South cooperation for trade,
investment and structural transformation”
Tatyana Valovaya,
Member of the EEC Board
- Minister in charge
of Integration and Macroeconomics
Geneva, 2019
South-South Agenda and the EAEU
S-S challenges:
❑ low share of mutual trade in the GDP, due to substantial part
of their exports to and imports from the «North» countries
❑ lack of foreign investments in the industries other than
extractive
❑ the prevalence of the extractive sector in the economy
and the raw materials export
❑ low share of the services sector in GDP and export
❑ volatility of national currencies caused by fluctuations in
energy prices and actions of reserve currency issuers
Eurasian integration is not a classic example
of South-South cooperation,
but we are faced with similar problems.
EAEU integration effects and potential | 3
Smoothing external shocks
2014-2015 commodity market crisis and the EAEU GDP
EFFECTS
in fact (2015-2016) without EAEU integration (est.)
-2.2% -3.3%
Development opportunities:
industry; infrastructure, transportation, logistics within the Union.
Strengthens the cooperation ties. Raises the living standards.
POTENTIAL 2030
Economy Trade Investments
EAEU GDP Mutual
3rd
+2,9% trade countries +$86,4 bn
+$140 bn FDI inflow
(measured in 2012 PPP)
+80%
+1.4% (biggest economy in EAEU)
Share growth
+13.1% (greatest effect in EAEU) of mutual FDI
Mutual trade | 4
Share of mutual trade in total trade turnover, 2018
• Access to new commodity
markets and goods
markets
• But challenges as for SS:
competition with import
• List of sensitive goods
• Transition period
• Adaptation to mew conjuncture
• Local producers support
Mutual export
Export effects 2018/2014 Free Trade Zone EAEU
structure has
Regime
improved
+113%
63.4% 72.3%
+29,9% 2010 2018
+25,5% Share of
manufacturing
+157,6% Trade through goods
Russia Direct trade
Investments and services | 5
Single Market of Services
Total export of services
Legal basis – Treaty on the EAEU (Section XV and Annex 16) from the EAEU
Service provider: no additional registration, license or permit +25,2%
Service recipient: freely acquires services of any provider from $59,7 bn $74,8 bn
the EAEU Member States 2010 2017
Number of Service sectors with single market regime
43 service sectors 52 53 64
2015 2018 2019 2021 2022
+ +
• Construction +
Reporting and
+
• Cinema/video Cartography Auditing,…
services production accounting,…
• Franchising • Movies rental
• According to liberalization plan
Leasing and • Real estate
renting • Advertising
• Geology Other sectors:
• Retail and In sectors, where the common market of services does not operate
wholesale • Tourism
service suppliers and recipients are provided with the national
• R&D in humanities
• Photo services treatment and most-favored-nation treatment (including notary
• R&D in natural services, patent attorney services, utilities services, education
• … sciences services, media services, etc.).
National currencies | 6
An effective mechanism
National currency dynamics (US$), % Jan 2016 of the economic
forecasting and crisis
foresight
AGREED MACROECONOMIC
POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS ON
SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS
• state debt
National Currency Volatility Index, % • budget deficit
• inflation
ADVISORY BODIES
• between central (national)
banks
• ministries of economic
development and finance
National currencies in mutual trade
70% 77%
in 2013 in 2017
Digitalization and Infrastructure projects | 7
DIGITAL AGENDA
Despite the digital agenda wasn’t included in the EAEU Treaty it is being successfully
developed:
2017 - EAEU Digital Agenda 2025: digital transformation for:
common markets, sectors, infrastructure, processes.
2018 - Annual International Competition of Innovative Projects
“Eurasian Digital Platforms”:
More than 250 applications from all the EAEU countries.
2018 - Chairman of the EEC Board’s Digital Office
http://contest.eaeunion.org/
INFRASTRUCTURE
EAEU Member States need
Eurasian
Development Bank
investments in infrastructure
Existing funds to support small
Interstates Bank
economies
Russian-Kyrgyz and realize the transit potential
Development Fund
New funds proposalsThe EAEU-World cooperation
Trade and Agreement
Volume of the EAEU Foreign Trade bln $ Economic
Free Trade Memorandum
of Memorandum
Agreement
2010 – 2018
of Understanding
Agreement Negotiation
912,1 938,8 937,6 18,8 %
873,1
753,4
690,0
633,8
579,3
509,4
2010 2018 * Interim Agreement between the EAEU and Iran enabling formation of free trade area
Main Trade Partners of the EAEU Member States 2018
Share of trade %
46,7 % 32,5 % 4,9 % 3,2 % 3,2 % 2,4 %
Source: the EEC StatisticsStrategy of the further integration | 9
Thank you for attention!
Contacts:
dmp@eecommission.org
+7 (495) 669-24-00 ext. 4653You can also read
