SPACE SECURITY: EUROPEAN FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT - SIRIUS Talks - 23 October 2018, Toulouse François Raffenne - Chaire SIRIUS
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SPACE SECURITY: EUROPEAN FOOD-FOR-THOUGHT SIRIUS Talks – 23 October 2018, Toulouse François Raffenne
01
WHAT ARE THE STAKES
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SPACE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONTESTED, CONGESTED & COMPETITIVE
Intentional threats
Uncontrolled threats
Chinese ASAT test 2007
Challenges for space-faring nations:
ü Freedom of access (launchers)
ü Freedom of movement (vs. environmental/intentional threats)
ü Freedom of action (A2/AD, ASAT?)
TITLE OF PRESENTATION XX/XX/XXXX 3
ü Competitiveness 3
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THE REALITY OF SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITIES IN SPACE
The Syracuse “Angel” Luch: Russian spy satellite
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SSA/STM REFORMS ARE DRIVEN BY STRATEGIC AND
COMMERCIAL INTERESTS
Growing needs… …warrant a coordinated response
• Changing space practices and technology • Development of new SSA/STM services
• Increasing commercial space activity (Active Debris Removal, LEOP & controlled
de-orbit tracking, maneuver plan monitoring)
• Increasing threats to space assets (both
uncontrolled and intentional) • Development of rules & regulations to frame
commercial space development
à Increased demand for more accurate
data and conjunction warnings à How to deal with full dependence on US
data?
à Need for regulations to follow the pace
of change à Space Traffic Management regulations
will dictate the “rules of the road”
The United States is the only actor currently articulating a coordinated response to
establish full-spectrum US dominance in space
How will Europe respond to its ally’sUSinitiatives ? STUDY - 10/30/18
REGULATORY REFORMS - IMPACT
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02
STM IN THE US CONTEXT
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v Space preeminence through the American spirit
FULL SPECTRUM DOMINANCE v Peace through Strength
v Whole-of-government approach to US leadership in space
Military Space America First National Space Strategy (March 2018)
• Leveraging commercial and Allies for “routine” capabilities
• Retaining the US technological edge using focused R&D investments
Military
Space
• US Space Force for integrated command & control
Civil Space
• Return to the Moon as overarching goal
US Space
• Embedding commercial space into exploration roadmap Dominance
Commercial Space Commercial
Space
Civil Space
• Harnessing commercial space for military and civil space (innovation,
investments, mindset)
• Strengthening US industry’s competitiveness (Buy American, deregulation)
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A comprehensive national security strategy encompassing military, civil and commercial
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STUDY - 10/30/18 7
A QUICK SUCCESSION OF WATERSHED MOMENTS
Space Policy
Directive 3
(SSA/STM policy +
Executive Order “Space Force”
reestablishing National America First National Presidential vision)
Space Council Space Strategy
June 18th
June 30th March 23rd
2018
2017 2018
Q1 Q1
2017 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019
2019
2018
Space Force
Space Policy Directive 1 Space Policy official
(Return to the Moon) Directive 2 announcement
December 11th (Regulatory reform
2017 and DoD memo
for commercial August 9th
space) 2018
May 24th 2018
Goal: unified vision, deregulation, simplification
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FOCUS ON SPACE POLICY DIRECTIVE 3 (JUNE 18, 2018)
1. Department of Commerce (DoC) as provider of basic SSA data
and basic STM services
• Open Architecture SSA Data Repository based on the public portion of DoD
catalog (DoD still in charge of full authoritative catalog)
• Free of direct user fees
• Possibility of fee-based « enhanced » services to be provided by DoC
2. The US to develop protocols to prevent Orbital Conjunctions
• « Appropriate methods may include licensing assigned volumes for constellation operation
and establishing processes for satellites passing through the volumes »
3. The US to develop policies and regulations for future US orbital operations
• Satellite servicing, debris removal, in-space manufacturing, tourism
Establishing de facto US-defined international standards
US REGULATORY REFORMS - IMPACT
à Europe must speak as one voice in order to establish a STUDY dialog
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ATM/STM COORDINATION
Space Traffic Management needs:
• Existing sensor infrastructure for SSA data
• C2 coordination/handover protocol between Air
Traffic Control and Space Traffic Control
• Deconfliction protocols and collision avoidance
• Legislative and regulatory framework (“rules of
the road”, safety standards)
Excerpt from the FAA’s Future Space Transportation System roadmap
Mission set Who’s in charge in the US Who’s in charge in Europe
Air Traffic Control FAA EASA/Eurocontrol/national
airspace
Space Traffic Management FAA ?
Launcher reusability is driving ATM/STM coordination in the US à pragmatic rather
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than prescriptive approach -
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MEANWHILE IN EUROPE…
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WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SIRIUS TALKS 2018 - 10/30/18 11STUDIES, DISCUSSIONS AND BABY STEPS
DLR study on the Implementation of a
European STM System (2017)
EU Space Surveillance and Tracking IAA Cosmic Study on Space Traffic
Support Framework (since 2014) Management (2017)
UN COPUOS Long-Term Sustainability
guidelines
What is the implication of industry?
A ponderous approach to a problem warrantingUSan accelerated answer
REGULATORY REFORMS - IMPACT
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STUDY
WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 10/30/18 12SSA: A STORY OF EUROPEAN DEPENDENCE
?
A historical precedent to ponder: the Galileo story
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WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 13THE GALILEO STORY
Development of US Global Positioning System (GPS)
• Initially developed and funded by DoD for military users
• Selective Availability(SA) mechanism for degraded accuracy until 2007
• Development of commercial applications à driver for economic growth
à US inclined to impose a fee-based access system
Development of Galileo
• EU decision in 2003 à recurrent funding issues but a major and sustainable European space
programme today
• Decision motivated by desire of strategic autonomy and promises of economic growth
Letter by Deputy SecDef Paul
• Development of EGNOS and commercial applications Wolfowitz pressuring Allies to not
pursue Galileo, Dec.2001
v SSA and STM are differentiating capabilities similar in importance to GPS in the early 2000s
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v Today, GPS and Galileo are seen as complementary rather than rival systems
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PROPOSED ACTION PLAN
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Raising
political ü Lobbying actions
awareness (national and EU)
about the ü Wargames
implications
Developing
Focusing on operational
differentiating services using
capabilities existing ü Institutional contracts
capabilities (opérateur de confiance)
ü Focused R&D (laser, characterization, data ü Revitalizing EU SST
fusion/exploitation, OOS)
ü Leveraging institutional funding
mechanisms (ESA, EU, DGA, CNES)
Fostering a ü European Military Space Surveillance Network
European (EM SSN) roadmap
approach ü ArianeGroup-led EDIDP proposal focused on
GEO-MEO as initial step
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WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 16ARIANEGROUP INITIATIVES TO IMPROVE SSA
GEO
Laser
surveillance: Imaging
Trajectography
GEOTracker
An operational network of Accurate trajectory prediction;
optical stations for MEO/GEO characterization
surveillance
LEO optical
surveillance
Leveraging all existing assets and competences
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GEO/MEO AUTONOMOUS CAPABILITY IN 2 YEARS
• Establish a permanent military surveillance of the GEO and MEO orbits
• Design to Qualification: Start 2019, Result 2021
• European Space Surveillance Network sensor prototyping
• Design: Start 2019, Result 2020
• Prototyping and testing: Start 2020, Result 2021
Optical RF
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50 M€ EDIDP proposal
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18STEP 2
ALL ORBITS INITIAL CAPABILITY 2023
• Integration of national assets (GRAVES, TIRA, GESTRA, telescopes, etc)
• C2 implementation
Optical RF Detection Tracking
Radar Radar
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19STEP 3
ALL ORBITS INTERMEDIATE CAPABILITY BY 2025
• Integration of tracking radars and lasers
• Launch and satellite transfer (LEOP) tracking
• C2 upgrade
Optical RF Detection Tracking Lasers
Radar Radar
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20STEP 4
ALL ORBITS FULL OPERATIONAL CAPABILITY BY 2027
• Large detection radar at low latitude (to see low inclination orbits as well)
• Space based assets
• C2 finalization
Optical RF Detection Tracking Lasers
Radar Radar
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21A TIERED APPROACH TO COOPERATION IN SPACE SECURITY
Cooperation with • SSA data
other allies (incl. • STM norms and
USA) standards
European • SSA data
cooperation • Shared catalog
EDTIB
(bilateral or EU) • STM services
Core sovereign • Classified catalog
competencies • Characterization
(capability niches) • Attribution
GOAL
Evolve from passive dependency to active cooperation in order to safeguard strategic autonomy
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and allow « peer » dialogue with the US
WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 22CONCLUSION
The US is… « We must have American
dominance in space »
• Saying what it is doing
• Doing what it is saying
Europe can and should do the same
• Engage with the US for shared Role of European Member States
standards & norms of behavior and institutions
• Coordinate scattered capabilities
and establish common SSA/STM Role of the European Defense
development roadmap and Technological Industrial Base
Strategic autonomy and economic growth need unified political will beyond
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electoral timeframes
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- 10/30/18
WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 23CLOSING THOUGHTS
“Qui nihil potest sperare, desperet nihil”
(He who ceases to hope also ceases to fear)
Seneca, Letters to Lucilius, letter V
We need to believe we can do it!!
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WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 24THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SIRIUS TALKS 2018 - 10/30/18 25
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