State of the Epidemic in Scotland - 12 November 2021 - The ...

Page created by Randall Lane
 
CONTINUE READING
State of the Epidemic in Scotland - 12 November 2021 - The ...
State of the Epidemic in Scotland – 12 November
2021

Background

This report summarises the current situation on the Covid-19 epidemic in
Scotland. It brings together the different sources of evidence and data
about the epidemic in Scotland at this point in time, why we are at that
place, and what is likely to happen next. This summarises the data up to
and including 11 November 2021 on Covid-19 in Scotland. This updates
the previous publication published on 5 November1. The information in
this document helps the Scottish Government, the health service and the
wider public sector respond to the epidemic and put in place what is
needed to keep us safe and treat people who have the virus.

This edition of the State of the Epidemic summarises current data on
Covid-19 at a national and local level, and how Scotland currently
compares to the rest of the UK. It looks at the vaccination program in
Scotland and its impact. Information is provided about variants of
concern and what impact these may have. Bringing this information
together in one place gives the opportunity to better understand the
current state of the epidemic in Scotland.

Please note that PCR testing might have been affected by half-term
holidays throughout October. Testing and case numbers during the
period 28-31 October 2021 may have been affected by a data flow issue
at the Glasgow lighthouse laboratory, this was cleared on 31 October.
The backlog of NHS Scotland Pillar 1 lab test results that Public Health
Scotland were unable to report on 2 November due to an issue affecting
data flow on the afternoon of 1 November were included in newly
reported figures on 3 November.

1
    Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
State of the Epidemic in Scotland - 12 November 2021 - The ...
Key Points

• The reproduction rate R in Scotland, as of 26 October, is estimated
  as being between 0.9 and 1.1. This has not changed since last week.
• An average of 2,855 cases were reported per day in the 7 days to 11
  November. This is a 2% increase from the daily average of 2,786
  recorded on 4 November.
• In the last week 7 day case rates have increased in Scotland, but the
  trend varies across the country.
• There were 362 weekly cases per 100,000 in the week to 8
  November (by specimen date). This is an 11% increase from 325
  weekly cases per 100,000 on 1 November. This is lower than the
  most recent peak (825 weekly cases per 100,000 on 6 September)
  and lower than the peak in July (425 weekly cases per 100,000
  recorded on 3 July).
• Case rates (by specimen date) have increased for those aged 0-19,
  in particular for those aged 5-11, decreased for those aged 60-79 and
  80+, and fluctuated for other age bands in the week to 8 November.
  As of 11 November, the highest case rates were observed amongst
  those aged under 20, followed by 40-59, 20-39, 60-79 and 80+.
• As determined through the latest weekly ONS survey, the trend in the
  percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 in the private
  residential population remained level in the most recent week in
  Scotland (31 October to 6 November 2021).
• Latest modelled estimates suggest that as of 26 October there were
  between 70 and 117 new daily infections per 100,000 people in
  Scotland.
• Orkney Islands currently has the highest weekly case rate in Scotland
  reporting 643 weekly cases per 100,000 in the week to 8 November
  2021, followed by Clackmannanshire with 612 weekly cases per
  100,000, while Shetland Islands has the lowest case rate at 184 per
  100,000.
• The number of people in hospital with confirmed Covid-19 on 11
  November decreased by 14% from a week previous (4 November)
  and in the last few days hospital occupancy appears to have
  plateaued. The number of people in ICU with confirmed Covid-19
  appears to have plateaued.
• Average hospital admissions (3-week rolling average) related to
  Covid-19 in children have decreased in age group 12-17 and
  remained stable among 5-11 year-olds, but has increased in all other
  age groups compared to the previous three-week period.
State of the Epidemic in Scotland - 12 November 2021 - The ...
• There were 140 deaths registered in Scotland where coronavirus was
  mentioned on the death certificate in the week ending 7 November.
  This a 4% increase from 135 deaths registered in the week to 31
  October.
• Nationwide, wastewater Covid-19 levels have dropped by 7%
  compared to last week, but is still higher than it was a fortnight ago.
• There continues to be uncertainty over hospital occupancy and
  intensive care in the next three weeks.
• Over 4.3 million people in Scotland have been given a first vaccine
  against SARS-CoV-2, over 3.9 million have received a second dose,
  and almost 1.1 million people have received a booster or dose 3 by
  11 November.
• The Delta variant remains the dominant strain in Scotland.
  Prevalence rates of AY.4.2 (Delta+) have increased in recent weeks
  in both Scotland and England. Clinical implications of Delta+ are still
  to be determined.

Method

This report brings together a wide range of publicly available figures
from a range of data sources. These include publications by Scottish
Government, Public Heath Scotland, National Records of Scotland and
Office for National Statistics along with scientific publications and SAGE
and UKHSA summaries where appropriate to summarise the state of the
epidemic in Scotland in a given week. We also provide information on
public attitudes to the virus from weekly YouGov polling surveys.

The national picture

The latest R value for Scotland, as of 26 October (using data to 8
November)2, was between 0.9 and 1.1 (Figure 1), with a growth rate of
between -2% and 1%. Both lower and upper limits of R value have not
changed since last week.

2
    Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
Figure 1: R in Scotland over time

An average of 2,855 cases were reported per day in the 7 days to 11
November. This is a 2% increase from the daily average of 2,786
recorded on 4 November3. In the week 30 October to 5 November 2021,
there were 407 cases (PCR testing only) per 100,000 amongst the
unvaccinated individuals, compared to 277 cases per 100,000 for those
that had been vaccinated with two doses4. In the last week 7 day case
rates have increased in Scotland, but the trend varies across the
country. There were 362 weekly cases per 100,000 in the week to 8
November (by specimen date). This is an 11% increase from 325 weekly
cases per 100,000 on 1 November)5. This is lower than the most recent
peak of 825 weekly cases per 100,000 on 6 September and lower than
the previous peak of 425 weekly cases recorded on 3 July (see Figure
2).

The number of locations where the levels of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater
are monitored has increased to 110 sites around Scotland. In contrast to
Covid-19 case records, virus shedding into wastewater is a biological
process. This means that wastewater data is unaffected by factors that
impact whether testing is done. Nationwide, wastewater Covid-19 levels
have dropped by 7% compared to last week, but is still higher than it
was a fortnight ago.

3
  Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
(week on week comparison may be affected by data flow issue.)
4
  Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
5
  Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-
19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
Figure 2: Seven day case rate for Scotland by specimen date. Refers to
PCR testing only.
                              900
                              800
                              700
    7 day cases per 100,000

                              600
                              500
                              400
                              300
                              200
                              100
                                0

                                                    Specimen date

Case rates (by specimen date) have increased for those aged 0-19, in
particular for those aged 5-11 (Figure 3 and Figure 7), decreased for
those aged 60-79 and 80+, and fluctuated for other age bands in the
week to 8 November. In the week 2-8 November, positive cases for
under 60s increased by 16% and decreased by 19% for over 60s as
compared to the previous week (26 October - 1 November)6. As of 11
November, the highest case rates were observed amongst those aged
under 20, followed by 40-59, 20-39, 60-79 and 80+ (Figure 3).

6
 Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-
19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
Figure 3: Seven day case rate in Scotland by age group by specimen
date7. Refers to PCR testing only
                              1600
                              1400
    7 Day Cases Per 100,000

                              1200
                              1000
                               800
                               600
                               400
                               200
                                 0

                                            Specimen Date (after 14 September 2020)

                                     0-19      20-39        40-59          60-79          80+

Not everyone who has the virus will be tested, as many people do not
realise they have Covid-19, or they have mild symptoms and do not
come forward. Latest modelled estimates suggest that, as at 26 October,
the incidence of new daily infections in Scotland was between 70 and
117 new infections per 100,0008. This equates to between 3,800 and
6,400 people becoming infected each day in Scotland.

The number of people in hospital with confirmed Covid-19 decreased
between 4-11 November, but in the latest few days it appears to have
plateaued. The number of people in ICU with confirmed Covid-19
appears to have plateaued. The number of people in hospital with
confirmed Covid-19 for less than 28 days peaked at 2,053 on 22
January and decreased to a low of 58 on 6 May9. This has since
increased and as of 11 November there were 768 patients in hospital
with Covid-19, which is a 14% decrease from a previous week (893
people in hospital on 4 November) (Figure 4). The latest data from PHS
shows 571 admissions to hospital for people with confirmed Covid-19 in
the week to 7 November compared to 680 in the week to 31 October10.
In the 4 weeks to 5 November 23.5% of acute Covid-19 hospital
7
  Source: Public Health Scotland
8
  Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
9
  Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
10
   Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public.
admissions were in unvaccinated individuals 11. For context, as of 28
October, 90.4% of those aged 12+ have had at least one dose of the
vaccine. Overall, individuals in the oldest age groups were most likely to
be hospitalised. The age-standardised rate of hospital admissions per
100,000 were higher in unvaccinated individuals compared to vaccinated
individuals in the four weeks to 5 November. Unvaccinated individuals
were 3.2 times more likely to be in hospital with Covid-19 compared to
individuals that had received two doses of vaccine in the period 30
October to 5 November12.

As the population is increasingly vaccinated, more of the patients in
hospital will be fully or partially vaccinated. Therefore, it is important that
we can differentiate between patients in hospital because of Covid-19
rather than with Covid-19. Public Health Scotland estimates that as at
July 2021, 75% of acute hospital admissions had a primary diagnosis of
Covid-19. The trend decreased from 78% in January 2021 to a low of
66% in April 2021, but has since increased 13.

Figure 4: Patients in hospital (including those in ICU) (with length of stay
28 days or less) and ICU14 with recently confirmed Covid-19
 2,000

 1,500

 1,000

     500

       0
           01-Jan
           15-Jan
           29-Jan

           04-Jun
           18-Jun
           12-Feb
           26-Feb

            02-Jul
            16-Jul
            30-Jul
           11-Sep
           25-Sep

           06-Nov

           13-Aug
           20-Nov
           04-Dec
           18-Dec

            23-Apr

           27-Aug
           10-Sep
           24-Sep

           05-Nov
            09-Apr
            09-Oct
            23-Oct

            08-Oct
            22-Oct
           07-May
           21-May
           12-Mar
           26-Mar

                                       Hospital         ICU (short and long stay)

11
   Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report
12
   ibid
13
   Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report
14
   ICU or combined ICU/HDU (with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days).
Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021.
From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28
days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.
There were 140 deaths registered where Covid-19 was mentioned on
the death certificate in the week to 7 November. This is an increase of 5
(+4%) in the number of deaths from the previous week, and 79% lower
than the peak in April 2020 (663 deaths). The proportion of deaths in
care homes decreased from 60% in April 2020 to 7% in the week to 7
November, with 10 deaths occurring in care homes15. In the week ending
7 November, deaths involving coronavirus have increased in those aged
45-64 (from 14 to 23 deaths) and 65-74 (from 29-43 deaths) compared
to week ending 17 October. Deaths decreased in those aged 15-44
(from 4 to 2 deaths), 75-84 (from 48-37 deaths), and those aged 85+
(from 46 to 35 deaths). Deaths remained at 0 in those aged under 15 in
the same period16 (Figure 5). From 29 December 2020 to 29 October
2021, 69.9% of Covid-19 deaths were in unvaccinated individuals17.
Amongst those individuals who have been vaccinated with two doses of
Covid-19 vaccine, 79.1% of the confirmed Covid-19 deaths occurred in
the 70+ age group18.

Figure 5: Deaths by age group (weekly total by week beginning, NRS)14
                                                                                                                                                                        60
                                                                                                                                                                        50
      350                                                                                                                                                               40
                                                                                                                                                                        30
                                                                                                                                                                        20
                                                                                                                                                                        10
      300                                                                                                                                                                0

      250

      200

      150

      100

       50

        0
            09/03/20

                       09/04/20
                                   09/05/20

                                              09/06/20
                                                         09/07/20

                                                                    09/08/20

                                                                                09/09/20
                                                                                           09/10/20

                                                                                                      09/11/20
                                                                                                                 09/12/20

                                                                                                                            09/01/21

                                                                                                                                       09/02/21
                                                                                                                                                  09/03/21

                                                                                                                                                             09/04/21
                                                                                                                                                                        09/05/21

                                                                                                                                                                                   09/06/21
                                                                                                                                                                                              09/07/21

                                                                                                                                                                                                          09/08/21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     09/09/21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                09/10/21

                                                                                                           Week Beginning
                                  Under 1 year                                 01-14                        15-44                       45-64                           65-74                            75-84                      85+

15
   NRS Scotland: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-
events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-
19-in-scotland
16
   ibid
17
   Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report
18
   ibid
How Scotland compares with the rest of the UK

The ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey estimates that in the week 31
October to 6 November 2021 the estimated percentage of the population
living in private residential households testing positive for Covid-19 in
Scotland was 1.18% (95% credible interval: 0.95% to 1.42%). The
percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 in the private
residential population remained level in the most recent week. Estimates
for the week 31 October to 6 November in the other UK nations are as
follows: 1.70% (95% credible interval: 1.61% to 1.79%) for England,
2.13% (95% credible interval: 1.73% to 2.57%) for Wales and 1.35%
(95% credible interval: 0.98% to 1.77%) for Northern Ireland. This
equates to around 1 in 85 people in Scotland, 1 in 60 in England, 1 in 45
in Wales and 1 in 75 in Northern Ireland19.

The ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey estimated that in the week
beginning 18 October 2021, 92.5% (95% CI: 91.0% to 93.7%) of the
adult population living in private residential households in Scotland
would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, as a
result of having the infection in the past or being vaccinated. This
compares to 93.1% in England (95% CI: 91.9% to 94.1%), 91.7% in
Wales (95% CI: 90.1% to 93.1%) and 90.9% in Northern Ireland (95%
CI: 86.7% to 93.2%)20.

An estimated 1.9% of the population living in private residential
households in the UK were experiencing self-reported long Covid
symptoms (symptoms persisting for more than four weeks after the first
suspected coronavirus (Covid-19) infection that were not explained by
something else) in the 4 weeks ending 2 October 2021. In Scotland,
92,000 people (1.75% of the respective population) living in private
households self-reported long Covid symptoms for this period. This
compares to 1.90% in England, 1.56% in Wales and 1.43% in Northern
Ireland21.

19
   Office for National Statistics:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/cor
onaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
20
   Office for National Statistics:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/cor
onaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/27october2021
21
   Office for National Statistics:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/pre
valenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/4november2021
Average daily deaths in Scotland (3 per 1 million population) in the week
to 11 November were similar to Wales and Northern Ireland (3 per 1
million each), and slightly above England (2 per 1 million)22. Average
daily
cases in Scotland (522 per 1 million) in the week to 11 November were
below Wales (674 per 1 million) and Northern Ireland (669 per 1 million),
and above England
(501 per 1 million)23.

Situation by local authority within Scotland

The trend in case rates varies across the country. Case rates have
decreased in Argyll and Bute, West Lothian, Aberdeenshire, Dundee
City, Midlothian, and City of Edinburgh over the last week, have
remained level in Shetland Islands, and have increased in all other local
authorities. Orkney Islands currently has the highest weekly case rate in
Scotland reporting 643 weekly cases per 100,000 in the week to 8
November, followed by Clackmannanshire with 612 weekly cases per
100,000, East Ayrshire with 542 weekly cases per 100,000, Na h-
Eileanan Siar with 525 weekly cases per 100,000, Angus with 513
weekly cases per 100,000, and Perth and Kinross with 488 weekly
cases per 100,000 population. All local authorities reported over 200
weekly cases per 100,000 population in the last week, except for
Shetland
(Table 1). There are still very high levels (150+ weekly cases per
100,000) of case rates across Scotland (Figure 6). Shetland has the
lowest case rate in Scotland, reporting 184 weekly cases per 100,000 in
the week to 8 November24.

22
   UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
23
   ibid
24
   Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-
19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
Table 1: Total new weekly cases per 100,000 population to 8 November
2021, in order of prevalence
Local authority                  Total new cases in   Change since
                                   the week, per        previous
                                 100,000 population       week
Orkney Islands                           643              +161
Clackmannanshire                         612              +25
East Ayrshire                            542              +71
Na h-Eileanan Siar                       525              +42
Angus                                    513              +130
Perth and Kinross                        488              +247
Dumfries and Galloway                    487              +128
Inverclyde                               436              +143
Stirling                                 429              +62
Highland                                 429              +107
Falkirk                                  425              +79
Fife                                     416              +66
Moray                                    415              +104
Scottish Borders                         413              +29
Argyll and Bute                          405               -11
North Lanarkshire                        397              +28
South Ayrshire                           389              +103
West Lothian                             378               -58
South Lanarkshire                        377              +26
East Dunbartonshire                      370              +42
North Ayrshire                           362              +23
Aberdeen City                            355              +24
East Renfrewshire                        342              +91
East Lothian                             333              +55
West Dunbartonshire                     325               +23
Aberdeenshire                           321               -111
Dundee City                             314                -34
Midlothian                              306                -13
Renfrewshire                            283               +30
City of Edinburgh                       236                 -6
Glasgow City                            225                +9
Shetland Islands                        184                 0
Scotland                                362               +36
Figure 6: Map of weekly new positive cases per 100,000 people in
Scotland

The most recent modelling predicts, based on data up to 8 November,
that for the week commencing 21 November 2021, there are 30 local
authorities (Shetland and Orkney Islands being exceptions) which are
expected to exceed 50 cases per 100,000 population with at least 75%
probability. 27 local authorities (Edinburgh, Glasgow, Na h-Eileanan
Siar, Orkney and Shetland Islands being the exceptions) are also
expected to exceed 100 cases per 100,000 with at least 75% probability.
There are no local authorities expected to exceed 300 cases per
100,000 population with at least 75% probability25.

25
     Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
Children and Education

Schools resumed in Scotland by the week ending 20 August and
universities resumed by end of September. Throughout October schools
were on half-term holidays, and testing rates in children were lower
during this period. The majority of children and young people have
returned to full time education.

The total number of Covid-19 cases in young people aged under 22 has
increased by 43% over the last week (6,556 cases recorded in the week
to 7 November compared to 4,594 cases in the week ending 31
October). The number of cases has increased in all age groups. The
percentage of cases made up of children under 12 was 64.8% (4,248
cases) in the week to 7 November, a slight increase from the previous
week (60.4%)26.

7 day case rates per 100,000 have increased in all age groups in the
week ending 7 November (Figure 7). However, case rates have
increased more sharply in the 5-11 and 12-15 age groups.

The rate of testing increased or remained level amongst all age groups,
apart from 20-21 where it decreased in the week ending 7 November.
Test positivity rates have decreased in age groups 0-1 and 2-4, however
increased or plateaued in other age groups in the same period.

Average hospital admissions (3-week rolling average) related to Covid-
19 in children have decreased in age group 12-17 and remained stable
among 5-11 year-olds, but has increased in all other age groups
compared to the previous three-week period.

Vaccine uptake in 17-21 year olds as at 25 October was 80.1% for the
first dose and 62.0% for the second dose27. Please note that under half
of Scottish students are in this age category and only Scottish students
(i.e. registered with a GP in Scotland) are included in the figures. Covid-
19 infection survey estimated that up to the week beginning 18 October
2021, the percentage of 16-24 year olds in the community population in
Scotland testing positive for antibodies increased to 96.0%28.

26
   Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education report (shinyapps.io)
27
   Public Health Scotland
28
   Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK -
Office for National Statistics
Figure 7: Seven day case rate in Scotland by age group by specimen
date for children and young people (week ending 7 November). Refers
to PCR testing only.
                            3000
  7 day cases per 100,000

                            2500

                            2000

                            1500

                            1000

                            500

                              0

                                                               Week Ending

                                   0-1 years     2-4 years             5-11 years    12-15 years
                                   16-17 years   18-19 years           20-21 years   All Scotland years

Looking ahead

Changes in patterns of mixing and adherence to restrictions will impact
on future case numbers. The Scottish Contact Survey measures times
and settings that people mix where they could potentially spread Covid-
19.

Average contacts have increased by 8% in the last two weeks
(comparing surveys pertaining to 14 October - 20 October and 28
October - 3 November) with a current level of 5 daily contacts.

Mean contacts within the work setting have increased by 44% in the last
two weeks. Contacts within the home and other setting (contacts outside
home, school and work) have remained at a similar level over the same
period.

Those aged between 50-59 reported the biggest increase in overall
contacts, increasing by approximately 40% in the last week. This
increase is largely driven by a rise in contacts within the other setting.

The biggest changes in the proportion of participants visiting different
locations is seen in those attending an event outside and those visiting a
pub or restaurant. Visits to an outdoor event have decreased from
approximately 72% to 68% with individuals attending an pub or
restaurant decreasing from 52% to 48% in the last two weeks.

Self-reported compliance with the current regulations and guidance has
decreased since January but remains at a high level. On 2-3 November,
67% of people reported ‘complete’ or ‘almost complete’ compliance 29.

There continues to be uncertainty over hospital occupancy and intensive
care in the next three weeks (Figure 8)30.

Figure 8: Medium term projections of modelled hospital bed demand,
from Scottish Government modelling31

Vaccinations are continuing and 90.4% of the 12+ population in Scotland
has now been vaccinated with the first dose 32. The first vaccines were
administered on Tuesday 8 December and 4,326,392 people had
received their first dose by 11 November 202133.
29
   Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus
survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c.
1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 2-3 November with a total sample size of 1002 adults.
‘Complete’ or ‘almost complete’ compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7
for the question: Thinking about ALL of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus
pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions).On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all'
and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?
30
   Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
31
   The difference between the scenarios: ‘Central’ assumes that infections will rise or plateau at the current level,
resulting from a small rise in transmission. ‘Worse’ assumes a larger rise in transmission from the current level.
‘Better’ assumes a small drop in transmission. All three scenarios account for the end of the half-term periods
and COP 26 in Glasgow. Due to this, there is a large amount of uncertainty as to the potential impact on
infections. All scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.
32
   Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-
19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
33
   ibid
By age group, almost 100% of individuals aged 55+, 97% of those aged
50-54, 92% of those aged 40-49, 85% of those aged 30-39, 78% of
those aged 18-29, 76% of those aged 16-17, and 56% of those aged 12-
15 have received their first vaccination (Figure 9).

Almost 100% of individuals aged 60+, 97% of those aged 55-59, 94% of
those aged 50-54, 88% of those aged 40-49, 77% of those aged 30-39,
68% of those aged 18-29, 18% of those aged 16-17, and 1% of those
aged 12-15 have received their second dose.

77% of individuals aged 80+, 82% of those aged 75-79, 78% of those
aged 70-74, 49% of those aged 65-69, 27% of those aged 60-64, 14% of
those aged 55-59, 12% of those aged 50-54, 9% of those aged 40-49,
6% of those aged 30-39, 4% of those aged 18-29, 0% of those aged 16-
17, and 0% of those aged 12-15 have received their dose 3 or booster
vaccination.

Overall, 3,921,971 people (82% of those aged 12 and over) had
received their second dose and 1,084,891 people have received their
dose 3 or booster vaccine by 11 November34. There remains a low level
of deaths amongst the vaccinated individuals (Figure 5).

34
  Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-
19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
Figure 9: Estimated percentage of adults vaccinated by 11 November
2021

      Age 80+                                                                                        100%
                                                                                                     100%
                                                                                       77%
     Age 75-79                                                                                       100%
                                                                                          82%        100%
     Age 70-74                                                                                       100%
                                                                                        78%          100%
     Age 65-69                                                                                       100%
                                                               49%                                   100%
     Age 60-64                                                                                       100%
                                            27%                                                      100%
     Age 55-59                                                                                      99%
                                 14%                                                               97%
     Age 50-54                                                                                     97%
                              12%                                                                94%
     Age 40-49                                                                                 92%
                                                                                             88%
                            9%
     Age 30-39           6%                                                         77% 85%
     Age 18-29         4%                                                       68% 78%
     Age 16-17                     18%                                             76%
                 0%
     Age 12-15   1%                                                  56%
                  0%
               0% 10%            20%      30%      40%      50%     60%      70%      80%      90% 100%
                                  1st dose         2nd dose         3rd dose and booster

The proportion of people surveyed who said they have been vaccinated
for Covid-19 is high. 91% of all respondents have already received at
least their first vaccine dose. Of those not vaccinated (and small base
must be noted), 6% report they are likely to be vaccinated when a
vaccine becomes available to them 35.

How the virus is changing

The variant of concern Delta, also referred to as VOC-21APR-02 (first
identified in India) is more transmissible than Alpha variant 36 37 38. It
quickly replaced Alpha (VOC-20DEC-01), first identified in the UK, as
the dominant strain in Scotland, and 102,029 cases have now been
identified as Delta to 10 November 2021. A sublineage of Delta, AY.4.2,
has been classified as VUI-21OCT-01, and 4,301 cases have now been
identified in Scotland.

35
   Source: YouGov online survey. Total sample size on 2-3 November was 1002 adults. Sample size for those
who have not yet received their first vaccine was 45 adults. ‘Likely’ to be vaccinated refers to respondents who
rated themselves 8 to 10 on a scale of 0-10 for the question: How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for
COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0
means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely')
36
   S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)
37
   Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) (publishing.service.gov.uk)
38
   S1284_SAGE_92_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)
To date there are five ‘variants of concern’ (VOCs) and twelve ‘variants
under investigation’ (VUIs)39. There is a concern that some of these new
variants may partially escape immunity, from both natural infection and
from vaccines currently being deployed and we are monitoring the
evidence on this40 41 42. Up to 10 November there have been 62
genomically confirmed cases of the variant Beta/VOC-20DEC-02 (first
detected in South Africa), and 23 cases of Gamma in Scotland.
Genomically confirmed cases of other VOCs and VUIs remain low, there
have been no new cases of other VOCs or VUIs in the last week (Figure
10). There remains uncertainty regarding the impact of the Delta variant
on severity of illness, treatment or reinfections. As more data is analysed
we shall become more certain of the impact of Delta on infections,
hospitalisations and disease severity and long term vaccine protection
effects.

Figure 10: Variants detected in Scotland by sequencing (data up to 10
November and reported weekly)43
        1000000

                100000

                    10000
 Cases, log scale

                     1000

                      100

                       10

                        1
                            27/01/2021
                            03/02/2021
                            10/02/2021
                            17/02/2021
                            24/02/2021
                            03/03/2021
                            10/03/2021
                            17/03/2021

                            31/03/2021
                            07/04/2021
                            14/04/2021
                            21/04/2021
                            28/04/2021
                            05/05/2021
                            12/05/2021
                            19/05/2021
                            26/05/2021
                            02/06/2021

                            16/06/2021

                            30/06/2021
                            07/07/2021
                            14/07/2021
                            21/07/2021
                            28/07/2021
                            04/08/2021
                            11/08/2021
                            18/08/2021

                            01/09/2021

                            15/09/2021
                            22/09/2021
                            29/09/2021
                            06/10/2021
                            13/10/2021
                            20/10/2021
                            27/10/2021
                            03/11/2021
                            24/03/2021

                            09/06/2021

                            23/06/2021

                            25/08/2021

                            08/09/2021

                            10/11/2021

                                                    Date (up to)
                      Alpha/VOC-20DEC-01   Delta/VOC-21APR-02                   Beta/VOC-20DEC-02
                      Zeta/VUI-21JAN-01    Gamma/VOC-21JAN-02                   VUI-21FEB-01
                      VOC-21FEB-02         Eta/VUI-21FEB-03                     VUI-21FEB-04
                      Theta/VUI-21MAR-02   Kappa/VUI-21APR-01                   VUI-21APR-03
                      VUI-21MAY-01         VUI-21MAY-02                         Lambda/VUI-21JUN-01
                      Mu/VUI-21JUL-01      Delta AY.4.2/VUI-21OCT-01)

39
   Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
40
   Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variants (publishing.service.gov.uk)
41
   Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 - 27 January 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
42
   Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
43
   Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
The effectiveness of vaccines

A large study from the University of Oxford and Office of National
Statistics shows that with Delta, Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-
AstraZeneca vaccines still offer good protection against new infections,
but effectiveness is reduced compared with Alpha44. Public Health
England analysis shows that vaccines are highly effective against
hospitalisation and death from Delta variant with vaccine effectiveness of
over 90% after two doses of vaccine.45. EAVE II data from Scotland also
shows that both the Oxford–AstraZeneca and Pfizer–BioNTech Covid-19
vaccines are effective in reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and
Covid-19 hospitalisation in people with the Delta variant, but
effectiveness against infection appeared to be diminished when
compared to those with Alpha46. The latest data released from the EAVE
II study revealed that vaccination is over 90% effective at preventing
deaths from the Delta variant of Covid-19 (Pfizer-BioNTech 90%
effective, Oxford-AstraZeneca 91%)47. The vaccine effectiveness expert
committee recently published their updated consensus view on the
effectiveness of different vaccines on infections, symptomatic disease,
and severe disease as well as some initial evidence on vaccine waning
effects48. The protective effects of vaccines wanes over time, and
recently the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI)
gave advice on a booster programme to re-vaccinate adults against
Covid in the UK49.

Next steps

The Scottish Government continues to work closely with Public Health
Scotland and modelling groups to monitor what happens following the
high number of cases in Scotland this week and how this effects the
course of the epidemic.

Each week this report will provide an overview of the current Covid-19
situation in Scotland. This will include real time data on case rates,

44
     New studies — Nuffield Department of Medicine (ox.ac.uk)
45
     COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 44 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
46
  SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness -
The Lancet
47
   Vaccines give protection against death from Delta | The University of Edinburgh
48
   Research and analysis overview: VEEP: Vaccine effectiveness table, 24 September 2021 -
GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
49
   JCVI statement, September 2021: COVID-19 booster vaccine programme for winter 2021 to 2022 -
GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
hospitalisations and deaths and how Scotland’s figures compare to
those from the rest of the UK.

Modelling can tell us where the epidemic is likely to be heading. Local
data and data by age group can highlight where problems arise, which
can help in addressing some of these issues. In the coming weeks the
roll out of the vaccine will continue to be monitored along with the impact
of this on case rates and deaths among different age cohorts.
Investigations are ongoing by NERVTAG, SPI-M, SAGE, UKHSA, Public
Health England and Public Health Scotland regarding the impact of new
variants and of vaccination; this will be reflected here as work is
undertaken.
This publication will be available in accessible HTML on the gov.scot website

© Crown copyright 2021
You may re-use this information (excluding logos and images) free of charge
in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence.
To view this licence, visit http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-
government-licence/ or e-mail: psi@nationalarchives.gsi.gov.uk.
Where we have identified any third party copyright information
you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.

The views expressed in this report are those of the researcher and
do not necessarily represent those of the Scottish Government or
Scottish Ministers.

This document is also available from our website at www.gov.scot.
ISBN: 978-1-80201-633-8

The Scottish Government
St Andrew’s House
Edinburgh
EH1 3DG

Produced for
the Scottish Government
by APS Group Scotland
PPDAS975206 (11/21)
Published by
the Scottish Government,
November 2021

ISBN 978-1-80201-633-8

Web Publication

PPDAS975206 (11/21)
You can also read