Stopping the Runaway Train - The Case for Privatizing Amtrak - Cato Institute

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No. 712                                       November 13, 2012

                        Stopping the Runaway Train
                          The Case for Privatizing Amtrak
                                           by Randal O’Toole

                                      Executive Summary

         When Congress created Amtrak in 1970,             trak’s, and by 2025 air travel is likely to use less
     passenger-rail advocates hoped that it would          energy per passenger mile than trains.
     become an efficient and attractive mode of                Recent efforts to reform Amtrak have proven
     travel. More than 40 years of Amtrak operations       futile as entrenched interests, ranging from la-
     have disappointed them, as Amtrak has become          bor unions to local activists, have kept Amtrak
     the highest-cost mode of intercity travel and         an inefficient carrier heavily dependent on gov-
     remains an insignificant player in the nation’s       ernment subsidies. No amount of reform will
     transportation system. Nationally, average Am-        overcome the fundamental problem that, so
     trak fares are more than twice as much, per pas-      long as Amtrak is politically funded, it will ex-
     senger mile, as airfares. Despite these high fares,   tend service to politically powerful states even if
     per-passenger-mile subsidies to Amtrak are            those states provide few riders.
     nearly nine times as much as subsidies to air-            Budgetarily, Amtrak has become a runaway
     lines, and more than 20 times as much as sub-         train, consuming huge subsidies and providing
     sidies to driving. When fares and subsidies are       little or no return. Four decades of subsidies to
     combined, Amtrak’s costs per passenger mile           passenger trains that are many times greater
     are nearly four times as great as airline costs.      than subsidies to airlines and highways have
         Partly because of these high costs, Amtrak        failed to significantly alter American travel hab-
     is an insignificant mode of travel. The average       its. Simple justice to Amtrak’s competitors as
     American flies close to 2,000 miles a year and        well as to taxpayers demands an end to those
     travels by car around 15,000 miles a year but         subsidies.
     rides Amtrak only about 20 miles a year.                  The only real solution for Amtrak is priva-
         Nor do the environmental benefits of pas-         tization. Private operators would enjoy sub-
     senger trains justify Amtrak’s subsidies. Buses       stantial cost savings over Amtrak and would be
     use far less energy per passenger mile than Am-       free to serve those routes that attract the most
     trak. Cars in intercity travel are typically as en-   passengers rather than the ones that are backed
     ergy efficient as Amtrak. While Amtrak is cur-        by the most political muscle. Private railroads
     rently more energy efficient than flying, airline     would also be more likely to develop innova-
     energy efficiency is improving faster than Am-        tions that will attract new riders.

     Randal O’Toole is a senior fellow with the Cato Institute and author of Gridlock: Why We’re Stuck in
     Traffic and What to Do about It and American Nightmare: How Government Undermines the
     Dream of Homeownership.
Before Amtrak                   Introduction                               other hand, Amtrak carries only about 1 per-
         took over                                                           cent as many passenger miles as the airlines
                          When Congress passed legislation cre-              and a fraction of a percent of the passenger
      the nation’s    ating Amtrak in 1970, passenger-train ad-              miles that intercity highways carry, leading
passenger trains,     vocates hoped that a national network of               critics to argue that it is a waste of money.
                      passenger trains would be operationally                    A close look at the data reveal that Am-
   rail travel cost   profitable and attractive to travelers. Instead,       trak has failed for two primary reasons. First,
    considerably      it has required continuous federal subsidies           in most markets passenger trains are simply
 less than flying.    for operations and repeated injections of fed-         not competitive against airline or highway
                      eral dollars for maintenance.                          travel. Even in the 100- to 500-mile ranges
  Today, average          In fact, Amtrak’s appetite for federal funds       that rail advocates often say are optimal for
  per-passenger-      appears to be insatiable. Its budget request           passenger trains, buses are far less expensive
mile rail fares are   for 2013 was 55 percent more than Congress             (and far more energy efficient) than trains.
                      gave it in 2012. In 2010 Amtrak proposed to            Second, government control of Amtrak has
 more than twice      spend $117 billion upgrading its 457-mile              saddled it with numerous inefficiencies, in-
 average airfares.    Northeast Corridor line, a plan whose cost             cluding unsustainably expensive labor con-
                      ballooned to $151 billion by 2012. For com-            tracts and political pressure to maintain
                      parison, the inflation-adjusted cost of build-         service on routes that attract few passengers.
                      ing the entire Interstate Highway System was               Recent years have seen several attempts
                      only about three times this much, yet it is            to reform Amtrak in order to reduce its costs
                      more than 100 times as long as the Northeast           and streamline its operations. But these ef-
                      Corridor and—unlike Amtrak—it was paid                 forts have proven futile as entrenched in-
                      for entirely out of user fees.                         terests, ranging from labor unions to local
                          Despite its growing cost, Amtrak’s con-            activists demanding that government sub-
                      tribution to the nation’s transportation is            sidize trains they rarely ride, have kept Am-
                      truly miniscule. The average American travels          trak an inefficient carrier heavily dependent
                      about 15,000 miles a year by auto—well over            on huge government subsidies. No amount
                      3,000 of them on interstate highways—and               of reform will overcome the fundamental
                      1,800 to 2,000 miles a year by air, but only           problem that, so long as Amtrak is politically
                      about 20 miles a year by Amtrak. Even in the           funded, members of Congress will pressure it
                      Northeast, the average resident of the Boston,         to provide service to almost every state even
                      New York, Washington, and intermediate ur-             if trains attract few riders in some of those
                      ban areas travels little more than 40 miles a          states.
                      year in Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor trains.                The only real solution for Amtrak is priva-
                          In short, budgetarily Amtrak has become            tization. Private operators would enjoy sub-
                      a runaway train, eating up huge subsidies and          stantial cost savings over Amtrak and would
                      providing little or no return. Over the past           be free to serve those routes that attract the
                      four decades, subsidies for every passenger            most passengers rather than the ones that
                      mile carried by Amtrak have averaged close to          are backed by the most political muscle. Pri-
                      10 times as much as federal, state, and local          vate railroads would also be more likely to
                      subsidies to airlines and more than 20 times           develop innovations that will attract new
                      as much as subsidies to auto drivers.                  riders.
                          This has made Amtrak a continuing puz-
                      zle for legislators, budget cutters, and policy
                      analysts. On one hand, federal subsidies to               The Highest-Cost Mode
                      Amtrak are considerably smaller than fed-
                      eral subsidies to airlines or local subsidies to          Before Amtrak took over the nation’s pas-
                      highways, leading rail passenger advocates             senger trains, rail travel cost a little more than
                      to argue that Amtrak deserves more. On the             buses but considerably less than flying. It thus

                                                                         2
Figure 1
    Average Airline, Rail, and Bus Fares per Passenger Mile
                           40

                           35

                           30
Cents Per Passenger Mile

                           25

                           20

                           15

                           10

                            5

                            0
                             1960   1965   1970     1975   1980   1985        1990   1995   2000    2005   2010
                                                  Air                  Rail                   Bus

    Source: 2010 National Transportation Statistics, table 3-16, “Average Passenger Revenue per Passenger-Mile.”
    Note: As inflation-adjusted airfares declined by 50 percent, Amtrak fares grew by 70 percent. As a result, Amtrak
    is now the highest-cost mode of intercity travel.

     offered people of all incomes a genuine alter-                    the company’s operating losses. During an
     native mode of transportation. Today, thanks                      era when most private transportation costs
     to Amtrak management, trains have become                          significantly declined, Amtrak’s dramatic in-
     the highest-cost mode of intercity travel, and                    crease in fares was stunning.
     many of them are patronized mainly by the                            Not all of Amtrak’s trains collect fares av-
     well-to-do who can afford the extra time re-                      eraging 31 cents per passenger mile. Amtrak
     quired for trains rather than flying.                             divides its trains into three groups: Northeast
         In 1970, the year before Amtrak took over                     Corridor trains that connect Boston, New
     the nation’s passenger trains, average rail                       York, and Washington; short-distance corridor
     fares were about one-third less than aver-                        trains that generally serve cities in one or
     age airfares—about 18 cents (in today’s pen-                      two states, usually with state support; and
     nies) versus 27 cents per passenger mile.1                        long-distance trains that travel through sev-
     Four decades of Amtrak management have                            eral states.
     reversed this ratio and more: by 2011, aver-                         In 2011 Amtrak collected more than 75
     age rail fares were 110 percent greater than                      cents per passenger mile on the Acela trains
     airfares—about 28.5 cents versus 13.8 cents                       in the Northeast Corridor and 42 cents a          Buses are less
     per passenger mile (see Figure 1).2                               passenger mile on other Northeast Corridor        expensive
         Part of this change was due to a 50 percent                   trains. Short-distance corridor trains col-
     decline in inflation-adjusted airline fares,                      lect an average of 22 cents a passenger mile,     than Amtrak—
     which is beyond Amtrak’s control. But part                        while long-distance trains collect an average     often far less
     is due to a 70 percent increase in average rail                   of 17 cents a passenger mile. These averages
     fares, which Amtrak says was necessary due                        are still greater than average airfares; only
                                                                                                                         expensive—for all
     in part to pressure from Congress to reduce                       4 of the 46 trains in Amtrak’s accounting         lengths of trips.

                                                                   3
On numerous       charged fares less than the airline average of            the cost happens at the terminuses, longer
    routes, buses    13.8 cents per passenger mile.3                           trips cost less per passenger mile. In 2001 the
                        To be fair to Amtrak, airline trips tend to            average airline trip was 1,500 miles, while the
 are not only less   be longer than rail trips and, since much of              average rail trip was 250 miles.4 As shown in
expensive but are
 faster and more     Table 1
                     Comparative Fares between Various City Pairs
   frequent than
         Amtrak.                                          Air Miles              Air             Amtrak                 Bus
                     New York-Seattle                        2,400               142                266                 139
                     Chicago-Oakland                         1,830               170                205                 119
                     Chicago-Los Angeles                     1,740               135                156                 119
                     Chicago-Seattle                         1,710               126                159                 119
                     Denver-Oakland                           954                 90                130                  99
                     New York-Orlando                         950                 96                127                  59
                     Chicago-Denver                           885                 74                138                  99
                     Chicago-New Orleans                      838                105                117                  89
                     Chicago-New York                         731                 90                 97                  55
                     Oakland-Seattle                          670                100                100                  70
                     Atlanta-Washington                       547                104                108                  49
                     Oakland-Portland                         544                 71                 80                  78
                     Chicago-Memphis                          492                159                 99                  16
                     Atlanta-New Orleans                      424                 79                110                    9
                     Oklahoma City-San Antonio                409                 87                 59                  76
                     Cincinnati-Washington                    409                 69                 70                  11
                     Boston-Washington                        398                 65                 70                  16
                     Denver-Salt Lake City                    390                 96                 75                  69
                     Chicago-Minneapolis                      333                 54                102                    9
                     Chicago-St. Louis                        258                 94                 25                  13
                     Chicago-Detroit                          234                 94                 32                    6
                     Houston-San Antonio                      192                 54                 33                    8
                     Portland-Seattle                         129                 83                 32                  10

                     Source: Fares gathered on September 24, 2012, for one-way air and rail trips taken on February 12, 2013, and
                     one-way bus trips taken on October 23, 2012 (most bus fares were unobtainable for February). Airline fares col-
                     lected from kayak.com; Amtrak fares from Amtrak.com; bus fares gathered from megabus.com, boltbus.com,
                     and greyhound.com; air miles from webflyer.com.
                     Note: Bus companies charge lower fares than Amtrak in almost every market, and are often more frequent and
                     faster than Amtrak trains. Airline fares are also lower than Amtrak on longer routes.

                                                                           4
Table 1, for trips of more than about 800 air           domestic air routes carry nearly 100 times
miles, airlines tend to be significantly less ex-       as many passenger miles as Amtrak, while
pensive than Amtrak; for trips of 400 to 800            intercity highways carry some 300 times
air miles, the prices are about the same; and           as many passenger miles as Amtrak.8 This
for trips under 400 miles, Amtrak tends to              means per-passenger-mile subsidies to Am-
be significantly less expensive than air travel.        trak are far greater than subsidies to its com-
    While Amtrak may be less expensive than             petitors.
air travel for relatively short trips, buses are            According to the U.S. Bureau of Trans-
less expensive than Amtrak—often far less               portation Statistics, after adjusting for in-
expensive—for all lengths of trips. In 2001             flation to 2011 dollars, subsidies to domes-
(the last year for which comprehensive data             tic air travel averaged about $14 billion a
are available), bus fares averaged just under           year between 1995 and 2007. Considering
13 cents a passenger mile compared with just            that the airlines carried an average of more
over 13 cents for airfares and 25 cents for             than 500 billion passenger miles a year dur-
Amtrak. Today, the “new model” of bus ser-              ing those years, average subsidies work out
vice pioneered by Megabus costs significant-            to about 2.8 cents per passenger mile (see
ly less than that.5 At 217 miles, the average           Figure 2).9
bus trip is only a little shorter than the av-              Using Bureau of Transportation Statis-         Domestic air
erage Amtrak trip, so there is no trip length           tics’ numbers, highway subsidies over the          routes carry
over which Amtrak has a real competitive ad-            same time period averaged about $48 billion        nearly 100
vantage.6                                               a year. Highways carried about 4.1 trillion
    On numerous shorter routes, including               passenger miles per year, for an average sub-      times as many
New York–Buffalo, New York–Toronto, New                 sidy of 1.1 cents per passenger mile.10 While      passenger miles
York–Raleigh, Washington–Richmond, Ra-                  95 percent of the airline subsidies came from
leigh–Charlotte, Chicago–Minneapolis, and               the federal government, all of the highway
                                                                                                           as Amtrak,
Chicago–Indianapolis, buses are not only less           subsidies came from state and local govern-        while intercity
expensive but are faster and more frequent              ments.                                             highways
than Amtrak. On most longer routes, airlines                By comparison, federal Amtrak subsidies
are also more frequent and, of course, faster           over the same time period averaged 25 cents        carry some 300
than Amtrak. Amtrak’s only advantage is                 per passenger mile.11 State subsidies aver-        times as many
that it provides a slightly different quality of        aged another 2.8 cents. Per-passenger-mile
service from buses or air, giving passengers            subsidies to Amtrak were nearly 9 times sub-
                                                                                                           passenger miles
more legroom and greater opportunities to               sidies to air travel and nearly 22 times subsi-    as Amtrak.
move around the vehicle. But both buses and             dies to highway travel.
planes can easily match this; for example, Li-              In response to concerns about its large
moLiner, a Boston-to-New York bus, contains             subsidies, Amtrak claims that its “‘farebox
just 27 seats on a vehicle that would normally          recovery,’ i.e., the portion of operating costs
hold around 55 and offers videos, on-board              directly covered by ticket revenue, was 79%
food service, WiFi, and other amenities.7               in fiscal year 2011, compared with 76% in
                                                        fiscal year 2010.”12 However, it reaches this
                                                        conclusion only with a very liberal defini-
The Highest-Subsidy Mode                                tion of “farebox revenues” and a very conser-
                                                        vative definition of “operating costs.”
   Fares are just part of the cost of trans-                Actual fares collected by Amtrak in 2011
portation, as most modes of passenger                   totaled $1.851 billion, which was 79 percent
transport receive some government subsi-                of $2.344 billion.13 But $2.344 billion isn’t
dies. Amtrak supporters are quick to point              enough to cover Amtrak’s labor, operations,
out that subsidies to air and highway travel            and fuel costs, much less materials, facilities,
are greater than subsidies to Amtrak. But               advertising, or other operating costs.14 Rev-

                                                    5
Figure 2
                       Airline, Highway, and Amtrak Subsidies per Passenger Mile

                                              50

                                              45

                                              40

                                              35
                   Cents Per Passenger Mile

                                              30

                                              25

                                              20

                                              15

                                              10

                                               5

                                               0
                                                1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
                                                              Air             Amtrak                      Highway

                       Source: 2012 National Transportation Statistics, table 3-33, “Transportation Revenues by Mode and Level of
                       Government,” and table 3-36, “Transportation Expenditures by Mode and Level of Government”; Amtrak annual
                       reports.
                       Note: While Amtrak subsidies have varied depending on the generosity of Congress in any given year, when
                       measured per passenger mile, those subsidies have averaged about 9 times greater than airline subsidies and 22
                       times greater than highway subsidies.

                        enues become sufficient to cover 79 percent              “under generally accepted accounting prin-
                        of costs only if they include $109 million in            ciples, maintenance is considered an operat-
                        food service revenues—which arguably are                 ing expense,” not a capital improvement.15 By
                        passenger revenues even if they aren’t strictly          redefining routine maintenance activities as
                        farebox revenues—and $191 million in state               “capital improvements,” and then pretending
                        subsidies to short-distance corridor trains—             that capital improvements don’t need to be
 Per-passenger-         which aren’t passenger revenues at all.                  justified by revenues, Amtrak falsely makes it
 mile subsidies             On the other hand, Amtrak’s calculation              appear that it is becoming more solvent.
                        of operating costs excludes what it calls “cap-             For example, in early 2012, Amtrak issued
to Amtrak were          ital improvements.” But most of the money                a press release bragging that it was request-
  nearly 9 times        Amtrak spends on so-called capital improve-              ing less “federal operating support” from
    subsidies to        ments is actually for maintenance costs, in-             Congress for 2013 than it received in 2012:
                        cluding overhauling aging locomotives and                $450 million instead of $466 million. But it
  air travel and        passenger cars, replacing worn-out ties, reno-           more than doubled its capital improvement
nearly 22 times         vating passenger stations, and renewing elec-            request from $657 million to $1.435 billion.
                        trical hardware needed to power its electric             This increase, the agency said, “is neces-
    subsidies to        locomotives in the Northeast Corridor. As                sary to move beyond mere maintenance of
highway travel.         the Congressional Research Service observes,             existing equipment and infrastructure,” ef-

                                                                             6
fectively admitting that most of its “capital                       mains an insignificant if not a completely ir-   In 2011 the
      improvements” in recent years were actually                         relevant mode of travel. In 2007 domestic air    average American
      maintenance.16 Even true capital improve-                           travel peaked at more than 2,000 miles per
      ments designed to increase rather than just                         person. At about the same time, per capita       flew 1,800 miles,
      maintain service must eventually be repaid,                         highway travel peaked at about 15,600 miles      traveled 15,000
      preferably by service revenues.                                     per year, about a third of which was intercity
          When counting all costs, including fares                        travel. Amtrak, meanwhile, carried Ameri-
                                                                                                                           miles by car, and
      and subsidies, Amtrak spends 60 cents per                           cans an average of just 19 miles per person.17   rode Amtrak just
      passenger mile, compared with about 16                                 Since then, because of the recession, per     21 miles.
      cents for airline fares plus subsidies to air                       capita airline travel has declined by about 10
      travel. When amortized capital and mainte-                          percent, or about 200 miles per person, while
      nance costs are included, even trains with the                      highway travel declined by about 500 miles
      lowest fares per passenger mile are a consid-                       per person. Amtrak travel has increased since
      erably more expensive mode of travel than                           then, but not enough to take up the slack: as
      flying when subsidies are included.                                 of 2011, the average American rode Amtrak
                                                                          21 miles a year, or 2 miles more than in 2007
                                                                          (see Figure 3). Even this is lower than in the
                             The Insignificant Mode                       early 1990s, when Amtrak carried the average
                                                                          American 24 miles per year.
         Amtrak brags that its ridership has                                 Even in the Northeast Corridor, where
      reached record levels in recent years. Yet, for                     Amtrak has the greatest presence, it remains
      the vast majority of Americans, Amtrak re-                          an unimportant form of travel. The 43.5

    Figure 3
    Per Capita Passenger Miles of Travel by Air and Rail
                             2,000

                             1,800

                             1,600
Passenger Miles Per Capita

                             1,400

                             1,200

                             1,000

                              800

                              600

                              400

                              200

                                0
                                 1960   1965   1970   1975     1980       1985    1990    1995      2000   2005   2010
                                                             Air                             Rail

    Source: 2012 National Transportation Statistics, table 1-40, “U.S. Passenger Miles.”
    Note: The average American travels close to 2,000 miles a year by air but only about 20 a year by Amtrak. Not
    shown is per capita intercity highway travel, which averages about 5,000 miles per year.

                                                                      7
million people living in this corridor rode           ral electrification, rural Internet access proj-
                      Amtrak Northeast Corridor trains an aver-             ects, the Rural Transit Assistance Program,
                      age of about 42 miles each in 2011, or about          and the Essential Air Service program are all
                      0.2 percent of the miles of mechanized travel         based on this same idea. Ironically, the same
                      taken by the average American every year.             people who advocate these ideas are often
                      Even adding associated trains between New             the first to decry government subsidized ur-
                      York and Albany, New Haven and Spring-                ban “sprawl.”
                      field, Philadelphia and Harrisburg, and Bos-              The cost of actually providing everyone
                      ton and Portland brings the total to less than        with equal access to any of these services is
                      50 miles per capita.18                                prohibitive. Even the Postal Service doesn’t
                          Amtrak brags that it carries more pas-            deliver mail to the door of every rural home.
                      sengers in the Northeast corridor than the            The Census Bureau estimates there are more
                      airlines, but it admits that it only has about        than 3,500 urban clusters of more than
                      6 percent of the corridor’s total intercity           2,500 people in the United States, and Am-
                      travel market, with highways carrying 89              trak stops at only about 500 of them.
                      percent.19 The truth is that if Amtrak disap-             Nor do Americans expect that they will
                      peared tomorrow, autos, buses, and planes             have ready access to all possible services no
        At average    could easily take up the slack without any-           matter where they live. People’s decisions to
          intercity   one noticing any significant increase in con-         locate in various places recognize tradeoffs:
  occupancy rates     gestion on highways or at the airports.               locating close to jobs often means sacrific-
                          Passenger-train advocates claim that, be-         ing good schools or quiet neighborhoods;
 of 2.4 people per    cause the Northeast Corridor is so densely            locating in a big city may mean higher-pay-
car, cars are more    populated, rail lines that carry the average          ing jobs but less affordable housing. Ameri-
                      resident less than 50 miles per year are some-        cans move an average of nearly a dozen
  energy efficient    how vital to the economic health of the re-           times during their lifetimes as their prefer-
     than Amtrak.     gion. Yet they also make the seemingly con-           ences and needs change.21 Taxpayers should
                      tradictory claim that rail passenger service is       not have to subsidize people who choose to
                      equally critical to the health of rural areas.        live in areas that do not support every pos-
                      Amtrak’s long-distance trains, says the Na-           sible transportation service.
                      tional Association of Railroad Passengers,
                      “bring economically viable mobility to rural
                      areas and small towns.”20                                 Amtrak’s Disappearing
                          Any proposal to eliminate or reduce                     Energy Advantage
                      train service to small towns brings out cries
                      of protest from people who claim this ser-               Passenger-train advocates tout the energy
                      vice is vital to their community. Yet Am-             savings offered by trains over planes and au-
                      trak’s twice-daily (once in each direction)           tomobiles. It is true that Amtrak uses about
                      passenger trains stopping in towns such as            20 percent less energy per passenger mile
                      Brookhaven, Mississippi; Las Vegas, New               than flying. However, Amtrak’s claims of
                      Mexico; Libby, Montana; Sandpoint, Idaho;             energy savings over autos is more question-
                      and Winslow, Arizona pick up or drop off an           able, while buses have a clear energy-saving
                      average of fewer than eight passengers per            advantage over Amtrak. Moreover, under
                      train (which means fewer than eight round             current trends, even flying will be more en-
                      trips per day to or from each of these cities).       ergy-efficient than trains in a few years.
                          The notion that rural areas need or de-              According to the Department of Energy’s
                      serve subsidized passenger trains is based            Transportation Energy Data Book, Amtrak used
                      on the idea that all Americans, regardless of         an average of 2,271 British thermal units
                      where they live, should have equal access to          (BTUs) per passenger mile in 2010, the latest
                      all goods and services. The Postal Service, ru-       year for which data are available. Commer-

                                                                        8
Figure 4
   Air, Rail, and Car Energy Consumption per Passenger Mile
                          12,000

                          10,000
BTUs Per Passenger Mile

                           8,000

                           6,000

                           4,000

                           2,000

                              0
                               1970   1975   1980   1985       1990      1995        2000       2005        2010
                                              Air                Cars                    Amtrak

   Source: Transportation Energy Data Book, 31st Edition, table 2.13, “Energy Intensities of Highway Passenger
   Modes,” and table 2-14, “Energy Intensities of Nonhighway Passenger Modes.”
   Note: Amtrak uses as much energy per passenger mile as intercity driving when intercity auto occupancies of 2.4
   people per car are used. Meanwhile, Amtrak uses less energy per passenger mile than airlines, but given a likely
   continuation of recent trends the airlines will be more energy efficient than Amtrak by 2023.

     cial airlines used 2,852 BTUs per passenger               of 1.55 people per car to calculate BTUs per
     mile. However, the Data Book also notes that              passenger mile.25 However, the 1.55 num-
     airline energy efficiency has been growing at             ber is based on urban travel. According to
     3.1 percent per year, while Amtrak’s energy               a study commissioned by the California
     efficiency has grown by only 1.3 percent per              High-Speed Rail Authority, cars in intercity
     year (see Figure 4).22 If this trend continues,           travel tend to carry more people, an average
     airlines will be more energy efficient than               of 2.4.26 At 2.4 people per car, the average
     Amtrak by 2023.                                           car used 2,226 BTUs per passenger mile in
         Aircraft energy efficiency is likely to con-          intercity travel in 2010, which makes inter-
     tinue to grow faster than rail’s. Boeing says             city driving more energy efficient than Am-
     that its new 787, for example, uses about 20              trak today. Using an occupancy rate of 2.19
     percent less energy per seat mile than the                for trips over 75 miles, a Congressional Re-           Scheduled
     planes it replaces.23 By comparison, General              search Service study also found that cars use
     Electric estimates that its latest locomotive             slightly less energy than Amtrak.27                    intercity buses
     saves just 3 to 5 percent of the energy re-                   This doesn’t include light trucks (pick-           use 60 percent
     quired by its predecessors.24                             ups, SUVs, full-sized vans), which consumed            less energy per
         According to the Data Book, the aver-                 7,225 BTUs per vehicle mile or (at 2.4 people
     age car used 5,342 BTUs per vehicle mile in               per vehicle) 3,010 BTUs per passenger mile             passenger mile
     2010. The data book uses an occupancy rate                in 2010.28 However, the latest federal fuel            than Amtrak.

                                                           9
Even at their non-    economy standard requires that the average                       Who Shot the
 wartime peak in      of all cars and light trucks sold in 2025 get                   Passenger Train?
                      54.5 miles per gallon, which is about 2,300
    1920, intercity   BTUs per vehicle mile.29                                   Passenger-rail advocates often blame the
     trains carried       If auto manufacturers reach this stan-             decline of American passenger trains on
                      dard on a straight-line path from the current          federal construction of the Interstate High-
       the average    average, and if the American auto fleet con-           way System.33 But a review of history shows
  American fewer      tinues to be replaced at the historic average          that trains began to decline decades before
   than 400 miles     of about 5.5 percent per year, then by 2015            that time. Passenger trains reached their ze-
                      the average automobile, including both cars            nith in 1920, when more than 20,000 trains
  per year, or less   and light trucks, will use less energy per pas-        per day traveled over the land connecting
   than 3 percent     senger mile in intercity travel than Amtrak            almost every city and town in the United
    as many miles     uses today. Between now and 2025, the av-              States.34 The railroads carried more than 41
                      erage energy efficiency of autos will grow at          billion intercity passenger miles that year,
    as the average    3.2 percent per year, or more than twice as            plus another 6 billion passenger miles on
 American travels     fast as Amtrak’s has grown.                            commuter trains.35
                          Scheduled intercity buses already use far              Many consider the 1920s to be the gold-
   by automobile      less energy per passenger mile than Amtrak.            en age of passenger trains, but it was a gold-
             today.   According to a 2008 study commissioned by              en age only for those who had the gold to
                      the American Bus Association, intercity buses          pay to ride the trains. While 41 billion pas-
                      use about 60 percent fewer BTUs per passen-            senger miles may sound like a lot, it repre-
                      ger mile than Amtrak.30 The same conclu-               sented less than 400 miles per capita, or less
                      sion was independently reached by the Con-             than 3 percent as many miles as the average
                      gressional Research Service in 1996 and the            Americans travels by automobile today. Rail
                      National Surface Transportation Revenue                fares averaged 2.75 cents per passenger mile
                      and Policy Commission, a group commis-                 in 1920, which is well over 30 cents in 2012
                      sioned by Congress to evaluate federal trans-          pennies.36 In terms of worker pay, which was
                      portation policy, in 2007.31 If Congress wants         lower relative to costs in 1920 than it is to-
                      to save energy, it should stop subsidizing Am-         day, such fares would be a dollar or more per
                      trak, which would encourage an expansion of            passenger mile at today’s wages.37 Such high
                      intercity bus service along Amtrak corridors.          fares meant that frequent rail patronage was
                          The above energy data considers only the           confined to the upper and middle classes;
                      energy costs of operating planes, trains, bus-         the vast majority of Americans in 1920 were
                      es, and autos. When full life-cycle costs are          members of rural or urban working classes
                      considered, including manufacturing, infra-            who rarely, if ever, traveled by train.
                      structure construction, and disposal, rails                As shown in Figure 5, competition from
                      are even less efficient than other modes. A            autos in the 1920s led to a slow decline to 24
                      lifecycle analysis by researchers at the Uni-          billion passenger miles in 1929 (less than 200
                      versity of California found that, because rail         miles per capita), and a more rapid decline
                      lines carry so few passenger miles relative to         because of the Depression to as low as 12
                      highways or airlines, construction, manu-              billion passenger miles (less than 100 miles
                      facture, and disposal consumed many more               per capita) in 1932 and 1933. Some railroads
                      BTUs per passenger mile. Specifically, the             responded to these declines by introducing
                      analysis concluded that, over their complete           flashy new trains that carried travelers at
                      lifecycle, passenger rail lines used about 2.5         much higher speeds than ever before.
                      times as much energy as they used in just                  By 1939 trains operated by the Burling-
                      operations, while highway users consumed               ton, Milwaukee Road, Northwestern, Penn-
                      only about 1.6 times as much energy as in              sylvania, Santa Fe, Union Pacific, and several
                      operations.32                                          other railroads routinely exceeded 100 mph

                                                                        10
Figure 5
     Rail Passenger Miles per Capita before Amtrak
                                  700

                                  600
Intercity Rail Miles Per Capita

                                  500

                                  400

                                  300

                                  200

                                  100

                                    0
                                     1920   1925   1930   1935   1940   1945       1950    1955     1960    1965    1970

       Source: Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970–Part 2, series Q307_Q308.
       Note: Claims that federal construction of the Interstate Highway System killed the passenger train are contra-
       dicted by the rapid decline in per capita rail riders during the 1920s and after World War II.

       and sometimes reached 120 mph. These rail-                            in 1954, and 100 miles in 1959. Population
       roads along with the New Haven, New York                              growth failed to compensate for this decline,
       Central, Reading, Rock Island, and others                             and by 1955 total intercity rail passenger        In 1959 Trains
       scheduled trains with average speeds from                             miles had fallen well below the lowest levels
       terminus to terminus greater than 60 mph                              of the 1920s.                                     magazine
       including the time required for all stops                                 No end to this decline appeared to be in      argued that
       along the way.38 This was more than twice                             sight when, in 1959, Trains magazine pub-
       the average speed of trains prior to this era,                        lished an incisive, 38-page report titled, “Who
                                                                                                                               the passenger
       and many of the railroads reported a large in-                        Shot the Passenger Train?” Written by the         train was not
       crease in ridership in response to the higher                         magazine’s pithy editor, David P. Morgan,         technologically
       speeds.                                                               the report was the longest and most impor-
          By 1940 ridership was up to nearly 20 bil-                         tant article in the publication’s 50-plus-year    obsolete but
       lion passenger miles, or 150 miles per capita.                        history.39                                        was “shot in
       Gas rationing during World War II led to a                                Morgan argued that the passenger train
       huge increase in intercity rail travel, reach-                        was not “technologically obsolete,” but that
                                                                                                                               the back” by
       ing 90 billion in 1944, or more than 650                              “it was shot in the back.”40 Like Agatha          government
       miles per capita.                                                     Christie’s Murder on the Orient Express, the      regulators,
          Eager to serve travelers, railroads invested                       villain was not a single assailant but several.
       hundreds of millions of dollars—billions in                           In particular, Morgan blamed the passenger        subsidies to
       today’s dollars—in new fleets of locomotives                          train’s decline on                                competitors,
       and passenger trains after the war. But rid-                                                                            unfair taxation,
       ership crashed immediately following the                                ●● Unions that insisted on antiquated
       war, falling below 300 passenger miles per                                 work rules, such as a 1919 rule re-          and obsolete
       capita by 1947, 200 miles in 1949, 150 miles                               quiring railroads to pay crews for a         labor rules.

                                                                        11
Trains magazine            full day’s pay for every 100 miles they                “Nobody is being asked to bail out the
   suggested that           worked (and to pay overtime for any                passenger train in the sense of making it
                            additional miles), which was still in ef-          a Federal ward,” said Morgan. “All that is
 passenger trains           fect in 1959 even though average train             asked is simple justice.” Just eight years
   could compete            speeds had doubled.41                              later, an Arizona attorney named Anthony
                       ●●   Government regulators whose work                   Haswell formed the National Association of
only if they could          may have been appropriate when rail-               Railroad Passengers specifically to lobby to
   run 25 percent           roads were monopolies but was unnec-               make the passenger train a federal ward.
       faster than          essary now that competition existed.                   At least one regulation had a much big-
                            Morgan cited an example of one state               ger impact on passenger trains than freights.
    highways, but           public utility commission that denied              In 1951 an Interstate Commerce Commis-
    a 1947 federal          a full fare increase requested by a rail-          sion (ICC) rule went into effect requiring
 regulation made            roads because “it has been generally               railroads to either install expensive signaling
                            recognized that railroad passenger ser-            equipment or to limit the speeds of passen-
this infeasible by          vice, as presently conducted, has not              ger trains to 79 mph (see shaded box). A few
limiting trains to          and cannot be operated at a profit.”42             railroads, including the Santa Fe, installed
                       ●●   Subsidies to competition including                 the equipment, but most judged that the
          79 mph.           highway subsidies and the predecessor              high cost could not be justified by a small
                            of what is today called the Essential              increment in passenger ridership, so they
                            Air Service program.43                             slowed their trains down, limiting their abil-
                       ●●   Unfair taxation of the railroads when              ity to compete with auto travel.
                            publicly owned airports and highways                   The ICC’s 79-mph speed rule did more
                            paid no taxes.44                                   harm than good to passenger trains. Freight
                       ●●   Railroad managers who found it eas-                cars spend most of their travel time being
                            ier to deal with freight (which Morgan             sorted in yards, so there is virtually no ben-
                            described as a wholesale business) than            efit gained by speeding up freight trains
                            passenger transport (which Morgan                  above 79 mph. Railroads could only justify
                            called a retail business). Morgan didn’t           the multimillion-dollar cost of installing the
                            think that many rail managers were de-             ICC-mandated signals by the returns from
                            liberately trying to kill potentially prof-        passenger revenues. Since these returns were
                            itable passenger trains to make room               rapidly declining in the 1950s, few railroads
                            for even more profitable freight trains            that did not already have the signals made
                            (which some passenger-train advocates              the effort.
                            at the time believed), but he did think                A few railroads, such as the Burlington
                            that most rail managers didn’t really              and Illinois Central, were able to compensate
                            understand the passenger business.45               for the slowing of passenger trains where they
                                                                               had previously exceeded 79 mph by speeding
                        Morgan admitted that all but the last of               them up in other locations where they had
                     these culprits hindered rail freight opera-               previously traveled at well below 79 mph,
                     tions as much as they did passenger trains,               thus allowing them to maintain the same
                     yet most railroads were able to earn a profit             overall times between major cities. Others,
                     on their freight business. Still, Morgan ar-              such as the Union Pacific and Atlantic Coast
                     gued that fixing these problems would bring               Line, were forced to add time to their sched-
                     many, if not all, passenger trains closer to              ules, making them less competitive with au-
                     profitability. Certainly the resurgence in rail           tos. When manufacturers introduced new
                     freight after the 1980 deregulation suggested             technologies, such as General Motors’ light-
                     that many rail lines that were once thought               weight Aerotrain or the Spanish tilting Talgo
                     marginal could in fact be profitable once                 train, railroads that were already up against
                     some of the above issues were addressed.                  the 79-mph limit were unable to take advan-

                                                                          12
How the 79 mph Limit Became Law
      In 1951 the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) implemented a rule requiring
  that U.S. trains traveling 80 mph or faster be equipped with expensive signaling equip-
  ment instead of relying on traditional forms of railroad signaling. The history of the
  rule’s adoption is a typical case of sensationalism and exploitation being used to adopt
  questionable public policy.
      The ICC first proposed the rule in 1946, when a fast passenger train collided with
  the rear end of another passenger train that was halted in Naperville, Illinois, killing 47
  people. The two Burlington Railroad trains had been running at about 80 to 85 mph
  just three minutes apart when a flagman on the lead train thought he saw something
  fall off the train and the conductor ordered the train to stop. The engineer of the fol-
  lowing train received a yellow signal indicating the need to slow down, but he didn’t ap-
  ply the brakes until the leading train came into view, by which time it was too late. The
  second train was still going at least 45 mph when it hit the first.
      While the ICC used this wreck to justify the new rule, it isn’t likely that the rule
  would have made any difference in this case. If speeds had been limited to 79 mph, the
                                                                                                       The Interstate
  second train would have hit the first train at 39–44 mph, hardly slow enough to have                 Commerce
  saved many lives. If the railroad had installed the signals the ICC wanted, the only differ-         Commission
  ence would have been that a yellow light would have lit up in the cab of the locomotive
  as well as on the signal outside. The most stringent signaling system would have forced              used a train
  the train to a stop only if it passed a red signal, and by that time it would have already           wreck in
  collided with the leading train.
      The fireman of the following train did not survive the crash, and despite several in-
                                                                                                       Naperville,
  vestigations of the crash, the engineer never formally testified about what happened.                Illinois, to justify
  However, an interior cab signal would not have helped, as it seems likely that the engine            the 79-mph speed
  crew of the following train saw the yellow and the engineer responded not by setting the
  brakes but instead merely backing off on the throttle. When two trains were operating                limit, but it’s not
  closely together, historian Chuck Spinner explains, “it was not uncommon for the engi-               likely that this
  neer of the trail train to ‘play the yellow,’ or to push the envelope when it came to speed.”        rule would have
  Engine crews assumed that a yellow signal meant they were running a bit less than three
  minutes behind the train in front, so “all the engineer would have to do is back off on              prevented the
  the train’s speed just a bit” expecting to increase the distance to three minutes and that           wreck.
  the next signal would be green.46
      The Burlington Railroad responded to the accident by requiring that trains operate
  at least 15 minutes apart. This would have given the flagman of the first train time to
  walk back far enough to warn the second train of the need to stop. Some of the fatalities
  were in a prewar streamlined car that had not been built to the Association of Ameri-
  can Railroad’s standards for passenger cars. This car had been crushed between two
  stronger and heavier cars, and the ICC directed railroads not to operate cars of different
  standards in the same train. These changes made sense. The 79-per-hour rule did not.

tage of these new trains by speeding overall         this rule had not been passed, and if the rail-
schedules.47                                         roads had been deregulated earlier and other
   By itself, the ICC 79-mph rule didn’t kill        hindrances—such as unfair taxation and
privately operated passenger trains. But if          subsidies to competing modes—had been re-

                                                13
Figure 6
                           Rail Subsidies per Passenger Mile
                                                  35

                                                  30

                       Cents Per Passenger Mile   25

                                                  20

                                                  15

                                                  10

                                                   5

                                                   0

                           Source: “Public Funding Levels of European Passenger Railroads,” Amtrak inspector general, 2008, p. 7.
                           Note: Amtrak subsidies per passenger mile are about the same as typical subsidies in Europe. Only Britain has
                           significantly lower subsidies than the average for other European countries.

                             moved, it is likely that passenger service could        reforming federal transportation policy.
                             have remained profitable on many routes for
   A 2008 Amtrak             many years.
Inspector General                Morgan argued that there were three                   The European Experience
                             markets for intercity passenger trains. First,
     Report found            on routes of 100 to 500 miles, trains could                American rail advocates often point to
      that virtually         compete with other modes if they were “at               government support of passenger trains in
                             least 25 percent faster than the highway.”              Europe and lament that the same support
      all European           The ICC rule made it nearly impossible to               isn’t provided in the United States. Yet a close
   passenger train           achieve this goal profitably. Second, Morgan            look at European data reveals that passenger
        operations           thought that business travelers would still be          trains in these countries require large public
                             attracted to overnight trains between cities            subsidies that produce negligible benefits.
             require         500 to 1,000 miles apart. However, he noted                Contrary to claims that many European
significant public           this business was marginal because sleeping             rail operations break even or earn a profit,
     subsidies, but          car passengers cost the railroads more than             a 2008 Amtrak inspector general’s report
                             twice as much as coach passengers, yet paid             found that virtually all European passen-
   those subsidies           less than twice the fares. Finally, Morgan              ger train operations “require significant
           are often         thought that longer routes could sell “only             public subsidies.” These subsidies are often
                             on a cruise basis whereby ‘getting there is             disguised in rail budgets. For example, Eu-
       disguised in          half the fun.’”48 Whether these markets are             ropean rail operations “are typically orga-
 national budgets.           still viable today can only be determined by            nized into two separate business entities,”

                                                                                14
one to manage the infrastructure and one               of communism—traveled 6,459 miles by car,           Spain has
to operate the trains. The train operators             compared with 14,510 for the average Ameri-         invested more in
may report a profit, but only because they             can. European subsidies to rail made up for
can ignore the heavy losses experienced by             only a small fraction of this gap: while in 2006    high-speed trains
the infrastructure managers. Even the prof-            the average American traveled only 18 miles         than any other
its reported by the train operators are often          by intercity rail and 35 miles by commuter
exaggerated by including government subsi-             rail, the average Western European travelled
                                                                                                           European nation,
dies among their revenues.49                           533 miles by intercity and commuter rail. The       yet since it began
    The inspector general report estimated the         extra miles of rail travel made up for less than    building high-
government contributions to passenger op-              6 percent of the auto travel gap.51
erations for each of nine European nations,                Americans actually made up for most of          speed rail, rail’s
plus the United States, from 1995 through              the rail gap with greater bus travel. While the     share of Spanish
2003.50 Comparing these subsidies with pas-            average EU-15 resident rode buses 665 miles         passenger travel
senger miles of rail ridership during those            in 2006, the average American rode them
years reveals that the subsidies in most of            997 miles, including airport buses, tour bus-       declined from
these countries are between 20 and 30 cents            es, and school buses, as well as urban tran-        6.9 percent to
per passenger mile, with the United States             sit and intercity buses. Europeans also flew
being right in the middle (see Figure 6). The          less than Americans. While separate data
                                                                                                           5.4 percent.
only major exception is the United Kingdom,            are not available for the EU-15, the average
where subsidies are well under 15 cents per            residents of the EU-27 (which includes the
passenger mile, partly because it privatized           original EU-15 as well as Cyprus, Malta, and
its rail operations in the mid-1990s. This sug-        10 former communist countries) flew about
gests that there are no economies of scale that        700 miles in 2006, compared with 1,970
would allow Amtrak to reduce its per passen-           miles by Americans.52
ger subsidies by expanding to a much greater               America’s greater mobility is not due to
size. The total subsidies in the nine countries        the nation’s large land area or low popula-
during the years studied averaged $38 billion          tion densities. The second-most mobile na-
per year, while annual subsidies to Amtrak in          tion in the world, after the United States, is
those years averaged only about $1 billion.            Iceland, which has only 1 percent of the land
The average resident in these nine countries           area of the United States.53 A comparison of
rode trains about 34 times as many miles as            Western European nations reveals almost
the average American, suggesting that there            no correlation between population densities
are diminishing returns to passenger rail sub-         and miles of per capita travel.54
sidies: a doubling of subsidies will produce               Nor is European spending on trains dra-
less than a doubling of ridership.                     matically increasing rail’s share of European
    Together, the nine countries studied by            travel. According to the European Union, in
the inspector general have a slightly greater          1980 76.4 percent of European travel was by
population than that of the United States,             auto, 2.5 percent was by air, while 8.2 percent
but less than one-fourth the land area, re-            was by intercity train.55 By 2006 auto’s share
sulting in an average population density that          was still 76.4 percent, while air’s share had
is 4.5 times greater than the United States.           grown to 8.3 percent and rail’s share had de-
But this higher density has minimal effect             clined to 7.9 percent. The big loser was buses,
on European travel choices, which are more             whose share declined from 11.9 percent to
influenced by the high taxes European gov-             6.3 percent.56
ernments impose on motor fuel, which effec-                Spain has invested more in high-speed rail
tively suppress European mobility.                     than any other European nation and now has
    In 2006 the average resident of the EU-            more miles of high-speed rail than any coun-
15—the 15 Western European nations that                try in the world except China. In 1990, before
made up the European Union before the fall             the nation’s first high-speed line opened, rail’s

                                                  15
share of surface passenger travel in Spain was           transport by nearly 50 percent, while rail’s
                    6.9 percent. By 2010, after a total of four ma-          share declined in the rest of the EU-15.62 The
                    jor high-speed rail lines had opened, rail’s             private operators accomplished this growth
                    share had declined to 5.4 percent.57                     with less than 60 percent of the average sub-
                        The most interesting passenger-rail ac-              sidy per passenger mile of the eight other
                    tion in Europe has been the British attempt              national rail systems studied by the Amtrak
                    to reform its rail system. This reform is of-            inspector general in 2008.
                    ten described as privatization, but it really                Three major complaints about the Brit-
                    ended up being a form of contracting. Ini-               ish railway program had to do with safety,
                    tially, Britain sold its rail infrastructure to a        reliability, and cost to taxpayers. However,
                    private company, called Railtrack, that was              since Network Rail replaced Railtracks, both
                    supposed to maintain the rail lines and allow            safety and on-time performance have im-
                    any operator to use them provided they paid              proved. In 2010, 92 percent of trains were
                    an access fee. The government determined                 on time, and surveys show that 83 percent
                    where passenger trains should run and invit-             of customers are satisfied with rail services.
                    ed private operators to bid on those routes.             The private operating companies have pur-
                        The Railtrack portion of the program                 chased new equipment, reducing the aver-
Britain’s system    proved to be a failure. In an effort to save             age age of rolling stock by 23 percent.63
   of contracting   money, it deferred maintenance, resulting in                 The biggest complaint about the British
       passenger    a poor on-time record as well as three seri-             program was that subsidies, which were sup-
                    ous accidents that killed 42 people between              posed to decline, actually increased. Adjust-
trains to private   1997 and 2000. As a result, the government               ing for inflation, subsidies averaged about 2
    operators led   bought out Railtrack and now operates the                billion pounds per year before privatization.
                    rail infrastructure through a quasi-govern-              These subsidies actually did decline slightly
  to a 60 percent   mental organization called Network Rail.58               under Railtracks, but since Network Rail
 increase in rail       Private contractors were allowed to bid              took over the infrastructure, they have grown
  travel between    on various routes, and if the bids were nega-            to more than 4 billion pounds per year. The
                    tive—that is, if the contractors would require           biggest increase in costs was infrastructure
 1996 and 2010,     subsidies to operate the routes—then the                 renewals, an increase partly required by
   far more than    government would provide those subsidies.                Railtrack’s deferral of maintenance.64 Since
                    The private companies own their own loco-                overall costs per passenger mile remained
     in any other   motives and railcars, but they operate under             constant, much of the increased subsidy can
        European    franchise to the government.                             be attributed to the growth in rail ridership.
         country.       Some reviewers consider the British sys-                 Some argue that the government re-
                    tem a failure.59 Yet in one important way—               purchase of rail infrastructure proves that
                    ridership—it has been a huge success. From               privatization doesn’t work. But a more valid
                    1996, when private takeover was largely com-             interpretation is that the British system con-
                    pleted, to 2010, British rail passenger miles            tinued to rely too much on central planning
                    grew by 60 percent, far more than in any oth-            and regulation. Instead of letting the market
                    er European country, and more than twice as              determine where passenger service would
                    much as in the EU-15 as a whole.60                       be by rail, bus, or another mode, the Brit-
                        Rail’s share of British passenger travel             ish government politically determined rail
                    grew by 70 percent from 4.4 percent in 1995              routes and agreed to subsidize the suppos-
                    to 7.5 percent in 2010. Again, this was more             edly privatized rail operators. The division of
                    than that of any other European country;                 the system between an infrastructure com-
                    rail’s share of travel in the EU-15, minus               pany and operating companies failed to cre-
                    Britain, grew by only 10 percent in the same             ate the proper incentives, which contributed
                    time period.61 During the same years, private            to safety and reliability problems. Despite
                    operations also increase rail’s share of freight         these failings, no other country, no matter

                                                                        16
how much it invested in high-speed rail or                  To reform Amtrak, some Republicans
other rail improvements, has come close to a            have proposed to have it contract out its op-
70 percent increase in rail’s share of passen-          erations to private companies such as Veolia
ger travel.                                             and Stagecoach, both of which operate ur-
   While not attempting widespread privati-             ban rail transit lines in the United States and
zation, other European countries are saving             elsewhere. Contracting out might help solve
money by contracting out selected routes.               the labor problem, except that the same pro-
Contracting has saved 20 to 50 percent of               posal calls for a requirement that contractors
costs on routes in the Netherlands, 20 to 30            pay employees as much as Amtrak is paying
percent in Sweden, and 20 percent in Ger-               them. Contracting out could also encourage
many.65                                                 operators to be efficient, especially so long
                                                        as there was competition for such contracts.
                                                        However, contracting out would not end the
          Privatization or                              inefficiencies that result from political deter-
           Contracting?                                 mination of routes and services.
                                                            Many American transit agencies contract
   Amtrak is supposed to be a corporation,              out their operations at considerable savings
not a government agency, and Amtrak presi-              to taxpayers. The Denver Regional Tran-
dent Joseph Boardman says that it is his goal           sit District (RTD) is a good example, as the
to run Amtrak like a business. But there are            Colorado legislature required the agency to
three obstacles to running a government-                contract out half of its bus routes. The com-
funded organization like a business.                    panies that operate the routes maintain and
   First, an organization that can draw on              fuel their buses, pay taxes on their fuel and
tax dollars to cover losses has little incentive        property that RTD is exempt from, and pay
to operate efficiently. Everyone in the organi-         workers roughly the same amount as RTD.
zation, from top managers on down, knows                One of the companies is even unionized.
that they can fall back on tax dollars to make          Despite higher fuel costs (when taxes are in-
up for any inefficiencies in their operations.          cluded) and comparable labor costs, in 2010
   Second, an organization that is beholden             the private contractors cost 49 percent as
to government to fund its operations must               much per bus-revenue mile and 52 percent as
do things that are pleasing to government.              much per bus-revenue hour than the buses
Since Amtrak gets a third to half its funds             operated by RTD.66
from tax dollars, it must please appropria-                 Judging from experiences in Europe,
tors as much as its customers. Among other              contracting out Amtrak’s operations might
things, this means running trains that car-             reduce per-passenger-mile subsidies by 20
ry few passengers simply because they go                to 50 percent. This would allow Congress
through the states or districts of powerful             to reduce Amtrak’s appropriations without          Complete
members of Congress.                                    threatening Amtrak’s routes or allow Am-           privatization
   Third, Amtrak faces the same labor prob-             trak to operate more trains on the same an-
lem as other public agencies in that nego-              nual appropriation.
                                                                                                           of Amtrak is
tiations with labor unions are asymmetric.                  Contracting out remains an imperfect           the only way to
When private companies negotiate with                   solution because Amtrak’s route map would          avoid the waste
unions, the negotiators clearly represent               still be politically drawn rather than focused
each side of any dispute. But when public               on the most suitable markets for passenger         that results
agencies negotiate, the agency negotiators              trains. Amtrak would still need to persuade        from political
have a conflict of interest as they represent           Congress to subsidize most routes, and to do       determination
both taxpayers, who have to pay for what-               so it would need to extend service into most
ever the two sides agree to, and union mem-             states even if some provided few customers.        of routes and
bers, who are also voters.                              In the long run, both Amtrak and the pri-          services.

                                                   17
To be fair,   vate operators would lack market incentives             serve remote communities. It should also
            Amtrak     to provide the most cost-effective transpor-            encourage state and local governments to
                       tation service. The proposal to require con-            find ways to fund highways entirely out of
      privatization    tractors to pay workers as much as Amtrak               user fees rather than general tax dollars.
should take place      pays also represents an inefficient and inap-               Though privatization might result in
                       propriate meddling with the market.                     an end to passenger trains on some routes,
 in the context of         Complete privatization of Amtrak is the             many routes could survive. Table 2, which
 reforming other       only way to avoid these problems. Such                  shows data for the 44 routes in Amtrak’s sys-
   transportation      privatization could be part of a compre-                tem, provides some clues as to what routes
                       hensive transportation reform package that              those would be. The table shows the “op-
  programs, such       eliminates subsidies to rail competitors,               erating profit” for each route in 2011; this
as ending federal      reduces whatever regulatory constraints re-             includes state subsidies on the revenue side
       subsidies to    main on private operators, and provides for             but does not include depreciation, interest,
                       fair taxation of all modes of transportation.           capital improvements, or maintenance on
       airlines and        Privatization would mean selling Am-                the cost side. “Cost per passenger mile” is
      encouraging      trak’s assets: 623 route miles between Boston           equal to the revenue per passenger mile (not
                       and Washington, New Haven and Spring-                   shown) minus the profit per passenger mile.
    state and local    field, Philadelphia and Harrisburg, and in                  The table shows only four routes that
  governments to       Michigan; 105 rail stations; maintenance                made an operating profit in 2011: the Acela
   fund highways       facilities; and roughly 2,300 locomotives,              and regional trains in the Northeast Corridor;
                       passenger cars, and other rolling stock. Am-            the New York-Montreal Adirondack; and the
  out of user fees     trak estimates that these and other assets are          Washington-Lynchburg trains (which are an
        rather than    worth about $11.1 billion, while its liabilities        extension of the Northeast Corridor). These
                       are about $5.3 billion.67                               trains earned an operating profit either by at-
        general tax        These numbers, however, represent the               tracting patrons willing to pay high fares (as
            dollars.   costs to Amtrak of purchasing right of way,             in the Northeast Corridor trains) or keeping
                       infrastructure, and rolling stock, minus de-            costs low (as in the other two trains). Keep
                       preciation. Just because Amtrak paid these              in mind that when capital improvements
                       amounts to provide trains that lose money,              and maintenance are included, none of these
                       however, doesn’t mean they are worth that               trains made a profit, and those costs are prob-
                       much on the open market. Privatization will             ably higher in the Northeast Corridor (which
                       probably produce net revenues that are less             is owned and must be maintained by Amtrak)
                       than the $5.8 billion Amtrak claims is its net          than on most other routes, where Amtrak
                       asset value.                                            pays private railroads an access fee (which is
                           Privatization should be done with a mini-           included in operating costs) and need only
                       mum of restrictions or regulation. Whoever              maintain its rolling stock and stations.
                       buys Amtrak’s routes should not be required                 The table reveals a very wide range of op-
                       to open those routes to any train operator.             erating profits and costs per passenger mile
                       Other than meeting basic safety require-                as well as occupancy rates (that is, the average
                       ments, operators should not be required to              percentage of seats filled by revenue custom-
                       meet any particular frequency or level of ser-          ers). Operating profits range from 25 cents
                       vice. Passenger trains, like buses and planes,          per passenger mile for the Acela to minus 47
                       should respond to the market, not to politi-            cents per passenger mile for the Los Angeles-
                       cians.                                                  New Orleans Sunset Limited. (The even greater
                           To be fair, such privatization should take          loss of 80 cents a passenger mile on the Chi-
                       place in the context of reforming other parts           cago-Indianapolis train is mitigated by the
                       of the transportation system as well. Con-              fact that Amtrak uses this train primarily as
                       gress should end the Essential Air Service              a “hospital train” to transfer cars in need of
                       subsidies and requirements that airlines                service from its Chicago hub to its shops in

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