Success of Populism in Western Europe and Germany: Electoral Effects of Parties' and Voters' Repositioning - Bernhard Weßels - WZB
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Success of Populism in Western Europe and Germany: Electoral Effects of Parties’ and Voters’ Repositioning Bernhard Weßels WZB-Talks, January 12, 2021
Abstract
What drives voters’ shifts? Is it the change in political supply, or is it rather
the change of voters’ preferences? The question is motivated by the recent
German experience of the success of the right-wing populist party AfD.
How much do supply and demand factors drive vote switching in general and
switching to right-wing populist parties in particular? The analyses put
Germany in the wider European context and adopts a dual-track perspective
by examining the specific case of Germany in parallel with a broader
perspective at Western Europe overall for the period 1996 to 2017.
It combines micro-level data on electoral behavior with party-level data on
political supply using the Manifesto Dataset. Results suggest that it is more
the preference change of voters that drives switching than the change in
political supply.
2 Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“
Background
— Western European party systems:
Right-wing populist parties already had some success since the
early 1990s, with an average of about six percent of the votes in
national elections. However, only from 2004 onwards has there
been a steady and continuous increase in their average vote
share to almost 12 percent.
— Germany:
The AfD came close to the 5-percent hurdle already in 2013 (4.7
percent), and easily surpassed it with 12.6 percent of the
(second) votes in 2017.
3 Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“
Possible Explanations
— Already existing “sleeping” political orientations had eventually
become activated at elections (Anders et al. 2018: 371; Müller
2016): Activation hypothesis.
— There has been a programmatic convergence or a shift of
mainstream center-left and center-right parties to the left, thus
opening the space for new competitors: Representation gap
hypothesis.
— A growing importance of the cultural dimension has created a
new cleavage constellation and thus a new demand of voters
(Hutter et al. 2016; Kriesi et al. 2012): Demand-change
hypothesis.
4 Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“
Data
— Change in political supply
Manifesto data (MARPOR) using traditional left-right and cultural
left-right scales (log-scales, range comparable to survey left-
right)
— Change in political demand
CSES data (Comparative Study of Electoral Systems) 1996-
2017.
- Left-Right selfplacement
- Recall previous elections
- Recall recent elections
— Match of data includes fifteen West European countries (Austria,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, Greece,
Iceland, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,
and Sweden)
— Eight systems with right-wing populist parties
9 parties: Freedom Party of Austria, Danish People's Party, True Finns, National Front,
Alternative for Germany, United Kingdom Independence Party, Party for Freedom, List Pim
Fortuyn, and Sweden Democrats (Akkerman et al. 2016: 2; Mudde 2007: 305-308).
5 Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“
Analytical Frame and Expectations
Party voted for in previous election… Measured with
moves to the Left keeps position moves to the Right party manifestos
A. if position of voter has not changed,
the following may happen:
switch to a more stay with party switch to a more
rightist party leftist party Measured with
B. if voter has moved to the left, CSES post-election
the following may happen: surveys.
stay with party switch to a more switch to a more
leftist party leftist party
C. if voter has moved to the right, Recall previous
the following may happen: election to recall
switch to a more switch to a more stay with party recent election.
rightist party rightist party
6 Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“
Position shifts of mainstream center-left and mainstream center-right
parties on the economic and cultural left-right dimensions, 1990-2017
Western Europe Germany
7 Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“Parties’ repositioning in Western Europe, 1996-2017
Note: Only parties chosen by respondents in previous election. Scale recoded to integer values for
descriptive reasons. Sources: (Manifesto Project Dataset 2019a; CSES 2019a, 2019b).
8
Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“Vote-switching in Western Europe and Germany, 1996 to
2017
Note: Left and right-switching defined by change between reported party choices in the previous
election and in the recent elections with regard to party families (ordered from left to right:
Communist, Green, Social Democratic, Liberal, Christian, Conservative, and Nationalist party family;
corresponding to the party families’ average positions on the left-right measure of the Manifesto
Project Dataset (2019)). Source: CSES waves 1 to 5 (CSES 2019a, 2019b).
9
Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“Marginal probabilities for right vote-switching depending on parties’
repositioning and voters’ distance on the economic left-right dimension to the
party voted for in the previous election, Western Europe 1996-2017
Covariates fixed at their means. Dashed lines indicate 95% confidence intervals. Source: Micro-level data from
CSES 2019a and 2019b combined with Manifesto Project Dataset 2019b
10
Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“Marginal probabilities for right vote-switching depending on parties’
repositioning and voters’ distance on the cultural left-right dimension to
the party voted for in the previous election, Western Europe 1996-2017
Covariates fixed at their means. Dashed lines indicate 95% confidence intervals. Source: Micro-level data from
CSES 2019a and 2019b combined with Manifesto Project Dataset 2019b
11
Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“Marginal probabilities for switching to a right-wing populist party depending on parties’
repositioning and voters’ left-right distance to the party voted for in the previous
election on the economic left-right dimension, Western Europe 1996-2017
Covariates fixed at their means. Dashed lines indicate 95% confidence intervals. Source: Micro-level data from
CSES 2019a and 2019b combined with Manifesto Project Dataset 2019b
12
Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“Marginal probabilities for switching to a right-wing populist party depending on parties’
repositioning and voters’ left-right distance to the party voted for in the previous
election on the cultural left-right dimension, Western Europe 1996-2017 2017
Covariates fixed at their means. Dashed lines indicate 95% confidence intervals. Source: Micro-level data from
CSES 2019a and 2019b combined with Manifesto Project Dataset 2019b
13
Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“Thank you for your attention 14 Bernhard Weßels, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Research Unit „Democracy and Democratization“
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